Mini 495 - Mafia on a Plane! GAME OVER! =)

[Gemelli]

Hi folks! Just checking in to say hi, and to confirm that I've picked up my role PM. I have a lot of reading to do to catch up here ... I'll post my thoughts and any opinions I might form later today (work permitting).

[Gemelli]

Hoo, boy. What have I walked into?

So! The situation as I read it -- keeping in mind, I'm fairly new to the game -- is as follows:

Day 2 Lynching Goals

For Pro-town players: ideal situation is to lynch an SK if one exists. 2nd best goal is to lynch a Mafioso.
For Mafia players: ideal situation is to lynch a pro-town power role if one exists. 2nd best is to lynch serial killer. 3rd is to lynch a pro-town.
For Serial Killer (assuming one exists): ideal situation is to lynch a pro-town power role if one exists. 2nd best is to lynch Mafia (?). 3rd is to lynch pro-town (?). (2nd and 3rd priorities might be backwards)

Is that a fair assessment of the situation? I'm trying to come up with a good baseline for assessing peoples' behaviors up to this point.

Player Profiles

I've skimmed the entire thread now, and made some quick notes on what I've seen. This all comes from a single skim, so it's entirely possible I've missed key posts; please feel free to point out cases where you think that's happened. But briefly, here are my gut reactions to all of the living players in the game (and remember, it isn't personal!):

Dr. Blackstrike:

My predecessor's posts in this game are staggering. Post 73, he claims vanilla townie. Then 107, claims that he lied earlier and is a power role. Threatens to lie again in post 220. Votes for an innocent (ryan) in post 316. Frankly, if I were playing against this guy, I'd be convinced he was scum. Alas, I am playing AS this guy, and as such I have inside evidence that says I'm not. *headdesk* Anyway, I would not blame anyone for suspecting me at this point; there is certainly ample justification for that. All I have in my defense is my own knowledge that I'm pro-town, and hopefully my posts in this game will help to counterbalance what's been posted on my "behalf." And for those of you who've asked: Dr. BS did NOT receive any special information that can help the town. Sorry

volkann:

One of the most active players since joining. Tends to post well-reasoned (and usually mathematically sound) opinions, and is quick to identify flaws in others' arguments. Has moved votes around quite a bit on Day 2 (AlyG, dybeck, originality, oman, dybeck again). His ability to assess situations in detail (or fake it) makes him either a serious asset to the Town, or a very dangerous scum. My odds on him: 75% town, 25% scum (mafia/SK).

Lucienne:

Largely inactive. Has focused mostly on Oman, originality, and myself as suspects. Is sparing with votes and FoS, but almost always provides background as to why she's voted/posted as she has. My odds on her: 60% town, 40% scum.

dybeck:

All votes Day 1 were for innocent players (myself, VH/ryan). However, has also offered frequent "voice of reason" posts to help slow down bandwagons -- e.g., see posts 95, 207, 261. I find myself agreeing with his conclusions more often than not. Currently focused on originality and shaft.ed as suspects. My odds on him: 60% town, 40% scum.

shaft.ed:

I have been having a very hard time getting a read on this player. Day 1, generally supported Oman and suspected VH/ryan, myself, dybeck, and AlyG. Day 2, has been mostly focused on AlyG as a suspect, with votes for dybeck and Elias thrown into the mix. Subjectively, I am getting a much more pro-town vibe from his posts over the last week or so. My odds on him: 55% town, 45% scum.

Elias_the_thief:

Has been largely inactive. Some brief sparring matches with dybeck, Oman, and Dr. BS. Very hard to know where Elias's loyalties stand with this minimal content. My odds on him: 55% scum, 45% town.

AlyG:

Divided Day 1 attention between originality, VH/ryan, CarrotCake and Lucienne. Day 2, claimed tracker, forced claim from originality. Currently has HoS on dybeck. Does not seem possible that AlyG *and* originality are both scum. My odds on him: 55% scum, 45% town.

Oman:

One of the most active players. On day 1, most vote/suspicion posts were directed at pro-town players (myself, VH/ryan, spurgistan, Carrotcake). Tended to support originality day 1, has distanced himself from him starting at (I think) post 434. Has been a frequent vote-hopper day 2, often following up another vote for that player as a bandwagoneer. Currently dividing his attention between dybeck and Elias, with occasional shots at originality. My odds on him: 80% scum (50% mafia, 30% SK), 20% town.

originality:

Pushed for a lynch of VH/ryan (confirmed innocent). Has claimed vigilante. Almost certainly responsible for the death of CarrotCake (confirmed innocent), a decision he made based only on "a vibe" and being one of the "quietest" players (which certainly isn't true when compared to Lucienne or Elias). Has been a fairly consistent supporter of Oman. Currently offering to let the town direct his next night action. My odds on him: 90% scum (60% mafia, 30% SK), 10% vig with poor judgement.

Follow-Ups

(1) All: For those of you who currently suspect dybeck, can you summarize your reasons? I haven't seen anything compelling from today's perusal.
(2) Volkann: In post 439, you listed several possible tracker/vig scenarios. I was confused as to why you included a two-Mafia scenario where originality is scum (#4), but not a single-Mafia one. Can you explain your thinking?

===============

Questions, comments, and all other types of content-rich responses are welcome

[Gemelli]

Shaft.ed, originality: Who would be your top 2 choices for lynching tonight, and why?

[Gemelli]

Thinking out loud here ... bear with me if I ramble.

This makes me think he is unlikely to be mafia and, so, I am left thinking he is pro-town vig.

I am still having a hard time reconciling that N1 CarrotCake kill choice with a pro-town alignment. The stated reasons for doing so don't hold up to the facts -- CarrotCake was NOT the quietest player in the game, and killing someone based on a "vibe" -- one which runs counter to nearly all of the discussion in the game to date -- is not really a pro-town play.

One scenario that I think should be considered was that orig targetted CC as a mafia or (less likely) SK, and then simply made a rushed decision on how to respond once AlyG revealed the targetting. In other words, let's not assume that players in the game always make the perfect decisions.

I agree that there would be plenty of reasons NOT to claim vig as an SK, somewhat less so as a mafioso. But assuming that he had decided not to call BS on AlyG's tracker claim, for whatever reason, he would be looking at making a claim which supports these facts: (1) he had indeed targetted that player, and (2) that player subsequently died. The first pro-town role supporting those facts which comes to my n00b mind, anyway, is Vig. Cop and Watcher leave you vulnerable to Occam's Razor ("yes, I targetted this player, but since I'm pro-town then obviously someone else did too").

If Orig is the SK, then Dybeck's latest actions in no way make him pro-town

Granted; we shouldn't be making assumptions on any alignments aside from our own. However, I would describe Dybeck's posts and actions as "townish."

I'll start by positing that Dybeck is not the SK. The SK would IMHO be happy to ride ANYONE's bandwagon, mafia or town alike. Dybeck has been steadfast in focusing on originality while other bandwagons have come and gone. So I'd be more likely to suspect Oman (for example) as the SK, based on play patterns to date.

It's a bit harder to make the case that Dybeck is not Mafia. All I'm going on there, really, is that his reasons for suspecting Originality closely match my own. Well, that and those posts I listed earlier where he argued against bandwagons for confirmed town roles. With my suspicions leaning heavily towards Originality as Mafia, it's hard for me to imagine Dybeck being in cahoots with him. So I suspect that Dybeck is either pro-town, or in a Mafia faction that competes with Originality's.

As far as there being no pro-town reason to get rid of Orig ... I'm not sure I agree there. He targetted a scumhunter, and the scumhunter died. While I agree that leaving him alive one more night will potentially give us more information about his alignment, it's worth noting that he may also target an active scumhunter, regardless of what direction we give him. Sure, that's a 1:1 trade mathematically (assuming we then lynched him the next day), but if the Mafia lose a highly-suspected target, and we lose our most active scumhunter, the town still comes out on the short end of the stick.

Generally, I'm confused about all the talk of "counterclaims." Isn't it possible for a game setup to have (for example) more than one Cop, or even Vig? I don't understand the logic of "you can't be a Cop, because I am the Cop."

Originality: quick question for you. If we asked you to target Oman tonight, would you do it? Why, or why not?

[Gemelli]

OK I agree with the Oman point. But what other wagon has there been for Dybeck to get on today?

No *major* bandwagons, true. But there was some action vs AlyG early on in Day 2 (vollkan, oman x3) and dybeck kept his focus.

[Gemelli]

Oops, point taken. My notes were incomplete; I logged votes and HoS's from day 2, but very little else.

[Gemelli]

The Life and Times of Carrotcake the Most Pro-Town Players Ever

Cute But I haven't been trying to suggest that Carrotcake was all that and a bag of chips. What I've been trying to suggest is that to me, CC makes NO sense as a kill target for a pro-town player.

Scroll back through day 1. How many posts even mention CarrotCake? Oman and Lucienne both made suspicious comments in passing, but unless my notes are lacking again, she was never seriously discussed as a scum threat. No votes, no FoS's, nothing. Not even a peep from originality about her through the entire day.

Compare that to Dr. BS (cough), a player whose behavior was erratic, who had admitted lying, and who had been the subject of at least one lynch bandwagon on Day 1. At the end of the day, who looked scummier, me or CC? If you had been the vig, who would you have targetted (after the obvious answer of "no one")? And how far down the priority list would you have put CC?

[Gemelli]

(And of course, I hit the button before I finish )

Basically, the simplest explanation I can come up with for originality to leave a very suspicious player (me) alive, and to take out an inactive player (CC), points towards him being Mafia. The Mafia have a vested interest in keeping suspicious-looking innocent players in the game as long as possible. Inactive players seem to be more common Mafia targets from the (admittedly few) games I've read all the way through on this site.

Other thoughts?

[Gemelli]

Good post, shaft.ed. Lots to chew on there.

Working with the assumed principle that originality thinks that lurkers are good vig targets ... OK. I can still see Elias or Lucienne giving CC a run for her money in that department, but you've demonstrated that CC wasn't an active player.

But again, suppose you were a vig and trying to make a good decision on behalf of the town. Wouldn't you want to make a few posts about a player you were suspicious of? If nothing else, I'd want to be sure that my target got a chance to defend him/herself, and to hear other people's opinions as to whether this person was a good target. The fact that CC got targetted out of the blue, with zero discussion of her as a suspect ahead of time, is what looks fishy to me.

I guess at this point, my best-case scenario would be if Originality agrees to target Oman tonight, or some other target we think is highly suspicious. I agree with the idea of not lynching Orig tonight, but only if he agrees to let a consensus direct his action.

[Gemelli]

Originality: quick question for you. If we asked you to target Oman tonight, would you do it? Why, or why not?

[Gemelli]

OK, you lost me around that last turn.

As has been pointed out ad nauseum, I find it much more likely orig-scum would be SK than mafia due to his claiming actions.

And I don't think he's SK because he claimed vig which is basically a death sentence in the night.

Do you think he's an SK, or not?

I'm leaning towards "not" myself for the exact reason you quoted previously (614).

Therefore, directing a SK to kill someone really has no meaning as their goal is to kill

anybody

on a given night. I agree we should direct his actions, but that they should be directed towards no kill. That way if he is lying and doesn't want to be outed he at least has to make a pro-town sacrifice for the night.

I'm not sure I agree. It's true that each kill brings the SK one step closer to his win condition. But we're facing a situation where we have *confirmation* that originality is able to nightkill. So the attention is already on him as a possible SK. And if he's a vig or an SK, the mafia very likely wants him dead tonight.

If we choose to have him not target anyone tonight, and he agrees, we may gain useful information during the next night phase. However, this is not a guarantee. In this scenario, what can we really deduce if he survives? The metagame/WIFOM possibilities are vast.

On the other hand, if we choose to have him target a given player tonight, and he agrees, in effect we give the town two lynch votes. THAT is a situation that I believe the Mafia would be unwilling to tolerate. So if AlyG is really a tracker, and Orig is really a vig, the Mafia would have a very difficult decision to make tonight.

So: I think the most pertinent question we need answered now is whether originality *will* allow a consensus of living players to determine his actions for the night, regardless of whether they are to kill a specific player, or none at all. If he's pro-town, surely he recognizes that he should not be relying solely on his own judgement, based on what happened last night.

Originality: how about it?

[Gemelli]

I'd be perfectly OK with stipulating the following as our approach:

(1) The town is going to lynch player A.
(2) If at twilight, it is revealed that player A is scum, originality should target player B at night.
(3) If at twilight, it is revealed that player A is pro-town, originality should not target anyone at night.

And yes, I realize that we still have to decide who players A and B are going to be If we move forward with this as a plan, I would suggest not using standard votes for this, since we would need to make TWO decisions (not one) before we trigger twilight. Maybe a less formal straw poll or something would work?

If we move forward with this, I'll absolutely understand if one of the players to be targetted ends up being me, based on the erratic musings of Dr. BS. (Though I hope that doesn't happen; I'm enjoying this game quite a bit already.)

All of this is, of course, contingent on originality agreeing with the strategy.

[Gemelli]

I think the decision should only be made during twilight

To the best of my knowledge, there is typically a very small window for discussion during twilight, correct? I'd feel better about the setup if we had more time to discuss, even if the final decision isn't made until twilight.

Why will the mafia NK Orig (providing we do not blanketly ban him from NKing)? If Orig is scum, the major threat to him is the mafia. His goal, therefore, is to eliminate the mafia.

This assumes, of course, that Orig is NOT mafia. I am still not convinced that that's a safe bet, although the fact that he's willing to let us direct his action tonight means that we should know one way or the other tomorrow morning.

Gemelli (As you say, though, slightly scummy. I think about 55% scummy)

Totally understandable, as I've said. I'm holding out some hope that this feeling is based primarily on my predecessor's play. I've tried my best to be an active scumhunter for the team. If something *I've* posted rings false/scummy, I'd appreciate hearing about what, specifically, it is.

Now then: I am still not swayed by the arguments against Dybeck. He has been single-minded in his pursuit of a single player, but I don't think it's without cause, and I'd like to think most of you would agree that there HAVE been some good reasons for his suspicions. Yes, one scenario is that he could be Mafia targetting a possible SK. But I'm a little surprised that in one page of this thread, people's reactions have shifted from "you actually are making some good points here" to "you are just as scummy as ever." I guess I haven't seen anything from him that I feel really deserves the level of suspicion being levelled.

That being said -- convince me! I realize that I'm new, and may be missing something that is blindingly obvious to the veterans. But my #1 choice for a lynch tonight would be:

vote: Oman

The vote-hopping on Day 2 is what bothers me the most about his play, but even on Day 1 his posts struck me as opportunistic and often needlessly confrontational. Specifically, posts 69, 129, 162, and 285 stood out to me as creating tempests within teapots. But post 239, where he tried to make the case that power roles claiming on day 1 is helpful to the town -- I'm just not seeing that as something a veteran player would say if he was trying to help the town.

All that being said, we need to think about the town's two targets for tonight -- a lynch, and an orig target. I think I've said all I can on why I suspect Oman, and if we're leaving Originality alive tonight (which I agree with), my #2 choice would be for Lucienne or Elias, leaving open the possibility that you all convince me that a dybeck bandwagon is reasonable.

And if I end up in one of those two slots, so be it. The good doctor did not leave me a lot to work with here

[Gemelli]

Here we have a player who is unswervingly pushing for the lynch of a confirmed vig or SK.

OK, here's where I expose the depths of my n00bidity:

If orig was a mafia (not vig or SK), and delivered the kill confirmation to the mod, I have been assuming that this would trigger the tracker result reported by AlyG.

If that is NOT true, then I will have to adjust my thinking, as I have been assuming that orig being a vig or SK isn't a given. If my assumption is correct, I think that the "deeply flawed" characterization is reaching. It's hard to fault someone for pushing a bandwagon against someone who confirmed killing a pro-town role. That being said, I am not willing to throw out the "mafia targetting SK" possibility. I just want to weigh it against all of the other possibilities.

As far as not/directing orig tonight: I think that NOT directing him will provide limited value to the town tomorrow. But I agree that leaving him as a wild card gives the Mafia a more difficult choice to make tonight. I suppose that as long as there is some posted consensus in place as to good targets for him, that's really the best we can hope for.

That being said, my #1 and #2 choices would be Oman and Elias (who continues to post in his other games with alarming regularity while leaving us high and dry). Subject to change as we get closer to a lynch vote, obviously.

[Gemelli]

I was referring to this:

originality wrote:

And lets not forget that if I were mafia I'd have no way of knowing if the other NKer was a SK or vig, so claiming vig would also be a dice roll if anyone counterclaimed.

Good point, combining this with the no-cop claim, I'd find it much more likely that you are SK or vig and not mafia.

I think that is a reasonable *argument*, yes. I'm just not ready to jump in and slap the "confirmed" label on it just yet. But knowing that the mafia are allowed to decide who makes the kill does make it seem less likely that originality is Mafia.

The exact way I would like this to be done is for each player to post a miniature scumdar thing, like what I did with the %s.

Since this is exactly what I did in my first substantial post in this game, I concur I'll have to come back to it tomorrow morning (tomorrow comes early), but I'll update my own scumdar ratings as soon as I can.

[Gemelli]

I take it back; I'll post my updates now:

Town
------
Vollkan -- 70% town odds
shaft.ed -- 65% town odds
AlyG (tracker claim) -- 60% town odds

(FWIW, I think it highly likely that Vollkan and shaft.ed are the same alignment.)

Unsure
--------
Lucienne -- 55% town odds
dybeck -- 50% either way
Elias_the_thief -- 55% scum odds

Scummy
----------
Orig (vig claim) -- 60% scum odds (stock is climbing towards town)
Oman -- 75% scum odds

[Gemelli]

I find myself agreeing with his conclusions more often than not. Currently focused on originality and shaft.ed as suspects. My odds on him: 60% town, 40% scum.

Interesting defense of dybeck, in a subtle way. Are you saying you agree with his attacks on originality?

Yes, that's it exactly. Going after CC struck me as an anti-town play. Dybeck had seemed to be the person most strongly advocating that position. I was a little surprised to find that perspective roundly attacked by others.

That being said: new day, new perspectives.

Unfortunately, today is going to be jammed at work, so I'll be limited in how much I can post. You get one novel from me this afternoon, and then it's back to the salt mines. Alas.

First, I wanted to post the raw notes I took when I joined the game. I'll leave it up to the rest of you as to whether I would have gone to the trouble of creating this if I was scum. But I wanted you to see some of the thought process that's gone into my previous posts.

My main goal in the notetaking was to track relationships among the players in the game over time -- who supported/suspected whom, etc. From re-reading them, I can see that I jumped to some conclusions early and allowed those conclusions to influence my opinions. And some of those opinions were based on the "perfect" information I had, but most of you didn't, about day 1 (since I knew that all of the dead were vanilla townies during my initial read).

I did another skim of pages 14-28 shortly after I woke up today, and let me just say that I do NOT recommend reading a Mafia thread first thing in the morning without coffee. Ow ow ow. But a few things jumped out at me that hadn't earlier.

First, my opinion on vollkan is slightly less certain than it was last night. I admire the length and depth of his posts, but some of the basic premises underlying the arguments seem to shift around a bit without comment. Some rushed examples: post 439, CC's later posts were "pure brilliance" vs. post 638, commenting that CC wasn't really all that active. Post 598, I seem "very pro-town" vs. post 638, I am "55% scummy."

In the latter case, there are two major points I've really pushed in between those two posts: (a) continuing to discuss the "originality might still be scum" theory, and (b) trying to poke at what I saw as holes in the logic driving the "dybeck must be scum" theory. Apparently one of those things caused vollkan's opinion of me to change significantly. I honestly don't see how either of those actions is especially scummy; I am trying to gather as much information as possible so that the town can make the most informed decision possible. Then again, I am coming from a perspective where my pro-town alignment is a given, so I am almost certainly missing something. I'd like to hear some other people's thoughts. Meanwhile,

mFoS on vollkan

. He is either a strong asset to the town, or a very dangerous scum. Still leaning towards the former, but there it is.

As far as Dybeck goes, I do agree with him that lynching originality would not necessarily be a bad move for the town. I strongly DISAGREE with him that a no-lynch vote tonight would be a pro-town move in any way. I just don't see how no-lynch helps anyone except the Mafia. So I'm less inclined to support him than I was yesterday. His statement that "If we mislynch, and originality is mafia, WE LOSE" didn't do him any favors, either, though I think all pro-town players would agree that we'd rather not be at 3:2:1 on D3.

On the re-read, I did pick up what might be subtle hints from Dybeck's earlier posts suggesting a possible power role. But barring a roleclaim from him that confirms my suspicion, I am tentatively willing to support him as a lynch target.

In summary, no change on my opinions on shaft.ed, Oman, AlyG, or Elias. I'd pull my rating on originality down to 55% scum, tweak dybeck to 55% scum, pull lucienne up to 60% town, and drop volkann back to 60% town.

Much-delayed lunchtime!

[Gemelli]

What I propose is that each of us makes a list of their top four candidates for NK in order including No Kill if that is what you prefer. Limit orig to picking from the three most popular options. Thus it is a hybrid directed but not 100% certain kill. This will effectively make the mafia unsure of who will be killed, but also give the town more piece of mind that their will is being carried out. And I'd also suggest that once a lynch candidate becomes more obvious we make two lists one for "if they come up scum" and one for "if they come up town."

I like this idea a lot, assuming that originality's choice is based on the top four of our

aggregated

choices. In other words, if players A, B, and C appear on everyone's lists, and player D appears only on 1-2 players' lists, I would not expect him to target player D.

My list:

1. No Kill
2. Oman
3. dybeck
4. Elias

[Gemelli]

I could go on, but it would be redundant because everything is basically the same, you can pick out any of her posts and notice the pattern of not saying anything new but just feeding back what everyone has already said.

Here's what I don't like about this post.

While Lucienne has been less active that one might like, and hasn't really put forward new arguments, what she HAS done is responded to the arguments of others.

She hasn't been a yes-person throughout the game. Some arguments, she has accepted. Others, she has challenged. While I certainly agree that advancing independent opinions is an important part of scumhunting, acting as an objective sounding board for the arguments of others is also part of the game.

The thing I'm really wondering about, though, is why you've called out Lucienne in particular. You mention in post 698 that Oman has also exhibited this behavior. What about Elias? Hasn't he been doing just about the exact same thing as Lucienne throughout the game?

What I'm getting at is that I find your single-minded focus on Lucienne to be specious. Given the criteria you are using to cast your vote, it seems that you should be talking a lot more about the other players that meet those criteria. This post feels a lot like the post-mortem you gave on your decision to kill CarrotCake all over again. I'm not telling you NOT to suspect people for the reasons you've given, but it would be nice to see you look at EVERYONE in the game through the same filter at once.

On an unrelated note, originality: you haven't posted your own top-4 list yet. Could you do that soon? I think you're the only active player that hasn't.

Now then: Oman. Reading your recent exchange with vollkan has made for a confusing afternoon.

Post 691: You post your top-4 list.

Post 707: You switch out AlyG for Lucienne, based on originality's post, still claiming that he is suspicious.

Post 717: "AlyG is by far not #1 material, and if [Orig] killed her with me having him at 4 and you guys leaving him off, I'd be into him (thats not a town play). No Kill should be #1 as far as I see. #2 should be dybeck, or if you are convinced he's innocent either Elias or lucienne, I'm really not sure wether cronic lurking or chronic lurking +1 scumtell in an effort to 'help' the town (might not be helping ) is worse." (edited to include later correction)

Post 722: "I'm not goign to tell people to put dybeck as #2 if they think he's town. Its their choice."

Post 724: "Actually the context of this discussion was other people's lists"

I'm having a hard time staying with you, so let me tell you how this reads:

You start by suspecting that AlyG may be scum. All well and good. It's a possible scenario, although I don't buy it myself at this point.

You are then swayed by originality's arguments -- IMHO, as posted above, unconvincing ones -- that Lucienne is scummier than AlyG, and you amend your list. This is continuing the pattern that made me suspect you in the first place: you waffle like an IHOP waitress on Sunday morning. I don't think there's anything wrong with re-reading and changing your mind, but when you do it as often as you have in this game, it reeks of opportunism.

I have no idea of what to make of posts 717, 722, and 724. You originally seemed to be talking about your own list. In 722 you state that you are not trying to shape people's lists. Then in 724, you indicate that 717 reflects how you think the overall consensus should play out.

It's kind of a mess. I still get the sense that you're flying by the seat of your pants here, switching tacks based on which way the prevailing opinion seems to be blowing. Which is what bought you my vote in the first place.

In any case, it sounds like we're all saying basically the same thing WRT what we expect Originality to do this evening:

(1) Look at the top-4 lists posted by all of the players (which should each include 4 different options)
(2) Count the # of times each player's name, or "No Kill", appears on all lists COMBINED
(3) Look at ONLY the top four choices coming out of (2). In other words, if "No Kill" gets the most votes, it's the #1 choice on the list. The players with the 2nd, 3rd, and 4th most votes would also be added to the list. ALL OTHER PLAYERS ARE DISCARDED FROM CONSIDERATION.
(4) At night, make a choice of any of the targetting actions from the list put together by (3).

If he agrees to follow this process, I think we'll be in good shape.

[Gemelli]

I am indeed looking at everyone's top 4, and I will use those as the basis for my decision tonight, but obviously some people's opinions (I don't mean my own) count more then others.

I don't think that's a good answer.

I think that the only way this process makes sense is if you weigh everyone's lists equally using the process I posted above, exactly as it was posted.

If you do this, then we will have an objective way to measure your alignment on D3. If you weigh the lists using some unstated subjective criteria, that allows you the freedom to really pick whoever you want from anyone's list, and justify it after the fact by claiming that person X's vote counted more heavily than anyone else's.

[Gemelli]

Just to follow up on that, looking at the 7 lists posted so far, we have the following tallies (this should include Oman's switch and Shaft.ed's revised list, but I'd be obliged if someone would double-check my math):

No Kill - 6 votes
Dybeck - 6 votes
Elias - 6 votes
Oman - 6 votes
Lucienne - 2 votes
Shaft.ed - 1 vote
Vollkan - 1 vote

So given those vote counts, I would NOT expect you to consider targetting Lucienne, Shaft.ed, or Vollkan during N2.

If you weigh the vote tallies based purely on listed ranks -- e.g., position 1 = 4 points, position 2 = 3 points, position 3 = 2 points, position 4 = 1 point, you get the following results:

No Kill - 24 points
Dybeck - 16 points
Oman - 12 points
Elias - 9 points
Lucienne - 4 points
Shaft.ed - 3 points
Vollkan - 2 points

Same results as a simple tally, but you get a much stronger view of what the consensus preference is.

[Gemelli]

My weighing scale isn't secret, its pretty much dybeck=not worth anything and shaft.ed=worth double. (I exaggerate of course, but its something like that. I wouldn't count someone who is scum, would I? And I don't think dybeck is missing from the top 3 of anyone's lists.)

I believe dybeck is actually #4 on shaft.ed's latest list.

Anyway, my point is that applying ANY subjective factors to the measurement is a bad, bad idea. I am OK with you making a personal judgement on which of the four town-consensus choices you will choose. I am NOT ok with you making subjective judgements in deciding what "town consensus" means. If you choose to fudge with an objective set of data, you are not working in the town's best interests. You are making a relatively arbitrary decision based on personal preference. My vote moving off you was primarily contingent on you allowing the town to direct your action tonight.

In any event, assuming that we have more town players than scum players, scum opinions will be naturally disadvantaged in this process. You don't need to weight anyone's votes in order for the town to get the loudest voice.

Also whoever we happen to lynch, if the person is scum he gets nothing counted for him, and there's that.

I'd be OK in saying that if whoever we lynch is confirmed as scum before we go to night, we will remove that person's vote from the final tallies.

But it's absolutely critical that the process used to give you the set of "town approved" options is open and transparent to everyone. The process doesn't need to work exactly as I've spelled it out, but the exercise is meaningless if we don't all have a crystal-clear understanding of how the town consensus list will be created.

I'm starting to wonder if our town-consensus list should be narrowed down to 3 choices instead of 4? We each continue to make top-4 lists, but originality would only select from the top 3 consensus choices. I think this would limit the town's risk exposure in the event that the Mafia load their votes to ensure that the player of their choice moves into the top 4.

I'm OK with a short list of 3 or 4 choices, but my support for this strategy is ENTIRELY dependent on originality agreeing that when he makes his kill, he will limit his choices to a short list of options provided by the town -- not "suggested" by the town, or "influenced" by the town, but an objective, data-driven list that is created purely by consolidating the preference lists of all the town members.

The outcome of this guide is, of course, my nightkill.

That's overstating the situation. I think it's clear from reviewing the lists that this isn't what we're driving towards. The #1 choice on 6 of the 7 lists posted to date is "No Kill." I'd expect that originality will take that into account when he decides what to do tonight, even if he didn't list "no kill" as an option on his own list -- and if he picks the #4 option, he will still be held accountable for explaining why he passed over town choices #1-3. But I think that we DO need his actions to be at least a little unpredictable tonight if we hope to eke out a tactical advantage for the town.

Iv'e got 1 question, is everyone prepared to lose originality tonight?

I think it's worth leaving him out there as a possible Mafia target if we want to keep our claimed tracker alive for another day. It's a risk we have to take, much as we risk a town member's life on taking his vig claim at face value.

[Gemelli]

But this is a very easy strategy for scum to do. They don't need to hunt down for things, they can simply question and probe at the logic of other people.

Well, of course they can. I'm just pointing out that asking questions and probing at arguments is exactly what ALL of us are doing when we talk to each other.

I personally think that if someone is not actively hunting for their own evidence, that is a case for mild suspicion. It is not a vote-worthy tell, but it is valid nonetheless.

Agree that it's a valid suspicion, as well as with the "not vote-worthy" opinion.

This is what I have been concerned about. As it stands, it appears Orig will not NK. Whilst it is good that he won't NK, the fact that it

appears

like that defeats the purpose of this.

By adopting this approach, we have made it a near-certainty that Orig will not NK.

That's not correct. It would be a near-certainty if we were giving him a single direction, or even two. We are giving him a choice among four targets as selected by a poll of all our players. This approach is intended to limit his choices while still allowing him to make a choice. As far as I know, that is the ONLY way we will be able to make a solid assessment of Orig's alignment on the morning of D3.

Orig should take our opinions as a basis but should exercise his own judgment. If Orig does NK, he will have a lot to answer for, but at the same time I want him to have

complete freedom

in this matter, to maintain the vital spectre of uncertainty.

No. I am not in favor of leaving the matter as open-ended as you suggest. If we set no limits on what behaviors will be perceived as acting in the town's interests, we open the door for long, tortured discussions on the morning of D3. As you say, allowing uncertainty as to what orig might do is a good thing for the town. Given the results of his decision-making on N1, I am adamant that giving him a blank check tonight would be a bad play.

Clearly, No Kill is preferred. However, Orig, do not take that as a demand from us that you do not kill.

Exercise your own judgment here.

I would prefer it if you didn't kill, but I am not going to demand that you follow this list.

Hang on a sec. I thought the whole reason we started looking into this strategy is that the town, as a whole, has a very strong reason NOT to want originality to simply exercise his own judgement?

Given the off-chance that the mafia are outside the consensus choices, I think it might be an idea not to demand that Orig limit himself to them. Orig has complete control here and our list is only a guide.

I think we need to continue to refine our lists, individually and as a town, including getting lists from our two inactives. But in my opinion, one of the primary goals of this exercise was to learn about originality's alignment. Again, if we change the structure to "listen to what we say, then do what you want" I fear we are going to end up with CarrotCake all over again.

In any event, assuming that we have more town players than scum players, scum opinions will be naturally disadvantaged in this process. You don't need to weight anyone's votes in order for the town to get the loudest voice.

Oh dear, I don't like this. You are assuming that town opinions are correct here.

Not at all. I am assuming that a mathematically-derived consensus of town opinion is required in order to make a legitimate assessment of originality's N2 actions. And I am stating outright that of all the players in the game, the one I LEAST want second-guessing explicit input from the town is originality.

[Gemelli]

Gemelli, I am trying to not make this into a purely number-based decision, otherwise anyone can tally up the votes and figure out what I'm to do tonight. I'd like to not have a set decision, but rather a direction to follow. Otherwise the mafia will know too much.

Again, I appreciate wanting to leave a wild-card factor in play. But from the town's perspective, surely you can also understand that there are reasons in place for us to place limits on your decisions.

And you're wrong in saying that the scum influence will get drowned out by the town votes. If one or two townies make a wrong vote the scum can jump on that and make it seem as if most of the town wants something that will end up hurting us.

But there's not much we can do about this without first knowing who they are.

Bolded for emphasis. We are operating in a situation where the town lacks perfect information. Which is why this is a game, and not a mechanical process So what I'm attempting to do here is to provide a structure here that allows us the best chance of actually allowing you to hit a scum target tonight, while ALSO giving us evidence on D3 to validate or refute your vig claim.

It is by no means a perfect plan. If the town makes generally bad decisions in making their lists, the town suffers. I still think this is preferable to a situation where the town makes generally sound decisions which are then overridden by someone who already made an anti-town decision.

I also have half a mind to shove all these probabilities into a random generator and have it spit out what I should do. That would definitely do with the unpredictable factor, but maybe it could come out stupid. What do you think?

Words fail me.

[Gemelli]

All we need is for it to be clear that you could foreseeably NK

anybody

.

I'd amend this to read "clear that you could forseeably NK at least one of the mafia."

What I like about the consensus list approach is that it gives us a strong chance of getting at least one Mafioso into the top four positions. I don't think it's necessary for ALL of the Mafia to be potential targets. There simply needs to be significant odds in play that you might take out a Mafioso tonight. As Vollkan writes, if you DO NK a scum, the Mafia will be on their heels.

[Gemelli]

Vollkan, it is a 6:3 chance of hitting mafia on a misslynch if you count shaft.ed and yourself (no biasing here, you two are the lowest ones on the lists). Without that, 4:3. It resumes to pretty much picking the least scummy of the 4 and killing anyone else besides him. The lists would definitely dictate the situation if this happens. Is this acceptable for you, Gemelli? That if we end up misslynching, I'd take out the lowest three on the lists besides myself and AlyG and kill one of the remaining? This seems to me a pretty decent way to use the info from the lists.

I'm not sure I follow you exactly. If you're saying that you would:

(1) Start with a list that includes ALL players in the game except for yourself and AlyG (e.g., 7 players)
(2) Remove the three players with the LOWEST number of votes from that list (leaving 4 players)
(3) Choose to NK, or any of those 4 players, based on your judgement and discretion -- keeping in mind the priorized list from the town

Then I'm OK with that. Obviously, there is no way for us to really control your actions tonight if we leave you alive. The best we can hope for is to at least arm you with tools to make your judgement easier, and to ensure that you understand how we are going to evaluate your town/anti alignment on the morning of D3.

[Gemelli]

Dybeck: What is it about this game that makes you suspect there are two scum groups?

[Gemelli]

OK, let's shift gears a bit.

It sounds like our active players are more or less OK with the process for how to direct originality during N2.

We still need to pick a lynch target for D2. And I would be very surprised if our lynch targets didn't overlap a bit with our orig-direction list.

So: let's assume that the person we choose to lynch is on originality's menu for N2. Do we:

(A) Allow originality to add another person to the list to replace the lynchee, or
(B) State that originality will have fewer possible "town-approved" targets to select from?

Example:

Based on the current aggregated/weighted point tally, originality's potential target list for N2 includes Dybeck, Oman, Elias, and Lucienne. Let's say we decide to lynch Oman tonight (picked purely based on the current vote count). Does this give originality the option to add vollkan (the next in line, points-wise) to the to-be-considered list?

(Obviously, the names on the list are expected to shift around as Elias and Lucienne post their preferences, and as people's opinions shift through the rest of the day. This is just a snapshot based on where we are at this moment. So please don't base your decision on the names you see in the example.)

I realize that this is getting a bit pedantic, but I'd like to ensure that we account for the variables that are likely to be in play, and that we've all had a chance to think about the best way to proceed.

For what it's worth, I favor (A).

[Gemelli]

I agree wholeheartedly. Looking back at my post, I had actually intended to vote for option (B), anyway. I plead lack of sleep

Other thoughts?

[Gemelli]

I guess the question is basically: Dybeck who is adamant and scummy, or Oman who is opportunistic and scummy?

When I frame it that way, Oman does look worse.

That's essentially where I've been coming from. Dybeck knows that his position is not popular but he continues to press it. He has had ample opportunity to adjust his stance as other possible targets have presented themselves. His alignment is certainly questionable, but I think shaft.ed nailed it: this could simply be a case of a townie having strong convictions and being frustrated that others don't share them. It's harder for me to reconcile Oman's behavior with a pro-town alignment.

While I agree that there is most likely at least one scum among our inactives, until they post more content it's impossible to form an opinion there. With any luck, they'll at least post their top-4-choice lists soon.

[Gemelli]

<metagame>Oman's profile shows 5 pages of posts since he posted here, so hopefully we haven't fallen off his radar ...</metagame>

[Gemelli]

I don't like the way Gemelli removes AlyG from orig's list in 757. We discussed the possibility the two were scum together, or whatever. I admit its not a huge probabbility, but the point is he completely discounts it.

This is ridiculous. Looking at the post itself, you should be able to see that I've quoted orig, and am replaying WHAT HE'S JUST SAID to be sure I understand him.

That being said, AlyG is not on my list for what I think are very good reasons which have been reiterated ad nauseum. I'll go over it again if anyone thinks it's necessary.

Gemelli skips over nokill in every convesation about orig's power.

Sigh. "No kill" is, as you will see if you peek back at post 687, my #1 choice for orig's night action. That has not changed one bit since the "top 4" lists started to make the rounds. What we have been trying to work out is whether there is a way that we can make the mafia unsure as to what originality will do tonight -- the theory being that if originality poses a threat to mafia members, the mafia will have to make a difficult decision on their NK target tonight. What I've been trying to work out in most of my posts lately is whether there's a way to keep the unpredictability in play while also limiting the town's risk exposure (and maximizing our ability to vet/refute originality's vig claim).

But I think you understand this, and are grasping at straws.

Gemelli conmpletely changes sides to be on the same stance as Shaft.ed

I have no idea what you are talking about here. I am sure you aren't talking about the recent focus on you, since IIRC I voted for you when you had zero votes at the time. I am all ears if you'd like to explain what you meant here?

The previous posts make more suspicious of Gemelli and Lucienne (she's in this game right?)

The two strongest posters game wide, and recently Gemelli (not convinced he's town).

The point is, these three posters seem pretty pro-town, and they're doing well.

These speak for themselves mostly, although I am puzzled by why you're grouping me with Lucienne in 793, since NONE of the posts you quoted had anything to do with her in the slightest.

[Gemelli]

And just as importantly, Lucienne, I'd like to see your top-4 list for originality's action tonight. I think that once we have the lists from you and Elias, we'll have a much more solid basis for making a decision on what to do tonight (both as a lynch target and as an orig-direction).

[Gemelli]

Oops! Pardon my cross-post

Gemelli, why in post 664 did you class Elias as more suspicious than others (e.g. dybeck)?

At the time, I saw dybeck's suspicions more or less aligned with mine. I was giving him the benefit of the doubt (perhaps too much) that his posts reflected a strong opinion, as well as frustration that others did not share that opinion. Since then, his stock has fallen a bit in my book. Elias, on the other hand, is generally a very active player on this site, and yet has participated at the bare minimum in this game. That makes me suspect that he might be adopting a low-profile here on purpose. It's a stretch, true, but there hasn't been much else to go on as far as scumtells are concerned.

I'm lost since after that you went back and said you were doubtful of originality's vig claim and he was more suspicious than Elias.

The context for post 664 was discussing my preferences on originality's night action. I found it unlikely that he would be willing to target himself

Gemelli (solid enough, only notable thing is connections with dybeck. If dybeck turned up scum, I would be looking at Gemelli.)

Completely understandable; I realize that my earlier support for him has formed a tenuous link between us. However, it's worth pointing out that dybeck has been silent as far as my posts are concerned. So: on the off-chance that I am removed from the game before he is, please don't take my confirmed alignment as any indication of his. I am pro-town; he may still be scum.

[Gemelli]

Also, Lucienne, thanks for bringing up the

Oman 50%

thing. I knew I had forgotten a linking thing between them. (hence why I just bolded it).

I assume that this is a typo, and that you are referring to my earlier listing of dybeck as 50% scum/town?

[Gemelli]

If anything, I would consider him ignoring your posts a scum-buddy tell.

Agreed. However, it occurred to me that if he IS scum, he could potentially use my death to bolster a claim of his own pro-town alignment. I just wanted to raise a flag now in the event that this situation comes up down the road.

[Gemelli]

Agreed. However, it occurred to me that if he IS scum, he could potentially use my death to bolster a claim of his own pro-town alignment. I just wanted to raise a flag now in the event that this situation comes up down the road

No he couldn't. If you died and came up town it would certainly not bolster him saying he is pro-town.

Maybe this is just a case of me being new. But I could forsee an argument -- not a strong one, mind you -- being made that "here's a confirmed pro-town player that supported me, so shouldn't you think twice about suspecting me?" I wanted to preemptively arm the town with my own thoughts on this in advance. Why do you find that scenario unlikely?

Frankly, I'm puzzled as to why Dybeck has been ignoring me (as in, barely acknowledging my presence) since I replaced into the game, especially when he had been suspecting Dr. BlackStrike pretty heavily on Day 1. It's not like I haven't been providing fodder for discussion or comment ...

This really smacks of you just trying to assert that you are pro-town. Maybe you are pre-empting a mafDybeck lynch and are trying to distance yourself. The point is, I don't like it.

I realized as I was posting 823 that there is really no way to say that last sentence without it sounding fishy. I originally posted it as a conditional ("If I am confirmed town ...") but went with the declarative because it reflects my perspective. In any case, I would like to think that my collected posts in this game demonstrate what my alignment is, and that all of our players will form their own opinions accordingly.

Given your strong stance against Dybeck, I expect that there is very little I can post about him at this point -- good OR bad -- without raising your suspicions to some extent. That being said, I believe that it's in the town's best interests for me to continue to speak my mind as ideas and opinions arise, regardless of how popular or unpopular I think my input may be. I don't care nearly as much about the prospect of being lynched or NK'd as I do about trying to give the town the information we need to make the best decisions possible.

[Gemelli]

OK, here's a consolidated list of everyone's top-4 to date. Please let me know if I've got anything incorrect, or if you'd like to change your list.

Originality:

1. Dybeck :: 2. Lucienne :: 3. Elias :: 4. Oman

Dybeck:

1. NK :: 2. shaft.ed :: 3. vollkan :: 4. Oman

Vollkan:

1. NK :: 2. Dybeck :: 3. Oman :: 4. Elias

Oman:

1. NK :: 2. Dybeck :: 3. Elias :: 4. Lucienne

AlyG:

1. NK :: 2. Dybeck :: 3. Oman :: 4. Elias

Gemelli:

1. NK :: 2. Oman :: 3. Dybeck :: 4. Elias

shaft.ed:

1. NK :: 2. Oman :: 3. Elias :: 4. Dybeck

Lucienne:

1. NK :: 2. Oman :: 3. Dybeck :: 4. Elias

Weighted Town Consensus to Date for Originality's Night Action:

(Position 1 = 4 points, position 2 = 3 points, etc.)

No Kill: 28 points
Dybeck: 18 points
Oman: 15 points
Elias: 10 points
Lucienne: 4 points
Shaft.ed: 3 points
Vollkan: 2 points

I've been giving more thought to Vollkan's advocacy of the "give Originality free rein with our guidance" position. The more I think about it, the less I see how that strategy benefits the town.

As I see it, we have two goals for directing originality this evening:

(1) Improve the town's odds at hitting scum tonight
(2) Vet or refute originality's vig claim

As far as (1) goes, please remember that we are dealing with a player whose views are sharply in contrast with the rest of the town. This is the only player who does NOT include "No kill" in his top 4 list. This is a player whose #2 choice of targets is one of only two votes among the entire town for that player. And of course, this is a player whose judgement resulted in a town kill on night one.

Giving the mafia uncertainty as to what originality might do is a good thing. But the ONLY scenario in which a blanket "use your judgement" approach is superior than a "select from the top 4 choices on this list" approach is if the town fails to include a single mafioso in the consensus list. I find that scenario deeply implausible, assuming that we have 3 mafia in this game at the moment -- it's not like we are assembling these lists at random.

For (2), if originality has a free rein to pick whichever target he thinks best, the town loses its primary tool in being able to deduce originality's alignment. Our goal here is simply to validate whether originality is willing to comply with the town's direction. If we give him the option to pick anyone he likes, even assuming the onus of explanation after the fact, we are implicitly telling him that he can ignore the town's input.

Vollkan: you've mentioned that you want to leave the door open for originality to find a scumtell that everyone else has missed. For the record,

I do not trust his ability to perform detective work on behalf of the town

, and I'm suspicious as to why you are willing to extend this level of trust to him. As such, if he selects a target outside the town's top 4 list, I will be voting for him on the morning of Day 3, regardless of what his explanation might be.

[Gemelli]

I know exactly what you are saying Gem, the point is that I think you are wrong.

That's fine. I wasn't out to prove anything with my comment; I wanted to close the door on a potential scum argument. Having made my observation, and been assured that this argument would not work, I am satisfied with letting the matter drop.

2) This is the one advantage of giving Orig a demand to NK. However, it does not prove his alignment and the opportunity cost is the uncertainty factor.

I don't think there is ANY way to "prove" originality's alignment until he is removed from the game, and I certainly wasn't suggesting that the top-4 list strategy does that. It DOES provide a stronger basis for assessing alignment than the free-rein approach.

We need Orig to present the threat

that he could kill any mafia tonight,

that a mafia could be lynched tomorrow and that orig could NK a mafia on N3 in order to hold this against the mafia.

I've bolded this part of the quote because it's something you've said before, and I still don't agree with it. From a game mechanics point of view, it doesn't matter whether one, two, or all of the mafia are at risk. What matters is that the odds of removing a mafia member are significant.

Assuming that 3/8 of the current field are mafia, a purely random shot from originality gives a 37.5% chance of taking one of them out. If we only manage to get one mafia member into the consensus top 4 list, there is still a 25% chance if he takes a totally random shot -- something the Mafia can't ignore. If we get two mafia into the list, the chance is 50%. And as I've said, in this approach, in addition to providing solid odds of hurting the Mafia, the town gets the extra benefit of determining how closely originality is willing to adhere to the town's wishes.

Imagine if, for instance, the mafia are Lucienne, Gemelli and shaft.ed. In that case, there is no threat posed by Orig even if he is limited to No Kill, Dybeck, Oman and Elias.

Granted, but I still think this situation is highly unlikely. If the mafia have been playing so well that their members have avoided suspicion from the

entire town

to date, we're hosed in any event.

(1) If Orig is mafia, we have a SK who can only hope to win by getting rid of Orig and his buddies. Thus, I think an Orig NK will be a certainty

even if he is demanded not to NK, because the SK needs to off the mafia. The worst thing for the SK would be for the mafia not to NK, thereby clearing Orig.

If Orig is SK, he cannot afford to risk himself being lynched (ie. straying from consensus) but, equally, he needs to get rid of mafia. As such, I would think that

(2) SKOrig is much more likely to NK than vigOrig, but is very likely to stick to consensus.

If Orig is SK, he needs to get rid of mafia tonight to have a hope of winning. As in, if he does not NK, even if mafia is lynched tomorrow, Orig's NK on N3 is a certainty.

Thus, what we see here is that mafOrig will end up dead, vigOrig may or may not NK and SKOrig has to NK.

(3) If Orig survives and does not NK, he is most probably a vig.

(1) Wouldn't the SK be just as interested in taking out a claimed tracker at this stage in the game? I don't think we can presume to know for sure that a non-orig SK would necessarily target him first.

(2) Agree to a certain extent, though I would expect him to bend the limits of the town's parameters in order to take out the player he deemed to be the greatest threat. Again, I find it least likely that orig is an SK out of all the possibilities.

(3) I think we have to be very, very cautious about relying on this line of thinking. If the SK may indeed take out the tracker tonight, a mafiaOrig might decide with his buddies that a no-kill night is worth establishing orig as a "confirmed" pro-town role. And if the town isn't interested in protecting orig tonight, and he really *is* a vig, I'd assume that he would become the #1 target for both the SK and mafia alike. Why on earth would either of those groups want to leave a direct threat to their win conditions alive?

If we were to blanket ban Orig from NKing, we would therefore be able to know for certain that he is a vig tomorrow.

"Certain?" Absolutely not. We would have more data to make a decision with, but see the scenario above. And it makes me very nervous when someone who is obviously a sound logical thinker uses terms like "certain" when certainty does not in fact exist.

Also, I need to clarify the "free rein" thing. All I want is for their to be the prospect that Orig could NK anyone and live. That is all we need.

Again, I strongly dispute the "anyone" element of this argument. We need to have good odds that Orig could NK mafia tonight. It is not necessary for ALL of the mafia to be targettable.

To deal with that, all we need to do is say that we will not autolynch Orig. Whilst his lynching may well be the outcome, that uncertainty is crucial. I do not want Orig to have free rein, but I do want him to present a threat to the mafia regardless of who they are.

I guess the distinction is between "autolynch" and "make a decision on orig's alignment based on how well his actions seem to jibe with the town's stated preferences." Regardless of what parameters we set up for originality tonight, I would like to think that the town will react in the latter manner.

[Gemelli]

Stupid Mafia Tricks, Volume 1:

I had time between meetings today, and wrote a simple PHP script to analyze a mafia game thread. The script is designed to summarize all of the votes, unvotes, HoSes, and FoSes, based on those actions being bolded per the usual convention.

Because it's a simple screen scraper, it does occasionally pick up information in error, but it looks like it produces pretty solid results for a first draft of a script. I'll post the results if there's interest, and if Streeflo allows me to use small text, since the summary is quite long.

Some things that jumped out at me from this simple analysis:

* The two players targetted last night were among the least active from a gameplay perspective. Spurgistan voted for orig in the random vote phase, switched to Dr BS in post 153, and then back to originality in 256, but made no other votes/suspicions. Carrotcake voted twice (orig and AlyG). The only other player with fewer than 5 "game actions" that was NOT killed on N1 was Elias: he made one random vote on orig, and then a vote on Oman in post 49, but took no other action.

* Lucienne's last vote was in post 204, but has unvoted twice since then.

* AlyG hasn't voted since post 323, or used FoS or HoS since post 574.

* Dybeck hasn't moved his vote from originality since post 404 (shortly after AlyG's tracker claim), and has only FoS'd vollkan since then.

* Vollkan has been by far the most active player on D2: 9 votes, 13 suspicions.

Anyway, no strong conclusions coming from this. Just wanted to share on the off chance that this rings a bell for someone.

[Gemelli]

If you could upload it on a separate webpage, that would be great.

Easy enough: http://www.feesher.com/495_summary.htm (And I wish you the best of luck finding an Elias replacement )

You'll notice a few quirks in the script output right away. For example, the script doesn't know that Streeflo is the mod, and picks up on his "Vote count" posts as votes. It's also sensitive to messed up quote tags and long blocks of bolded text, which is why AlyG's posts 351 and 676 show garbled info. Still, not too hard to discard things like that as you review the results.

Wow. I'd love to get my hands on that somehow, though I understand if you want to keep it to yourself.

I'll very likely release it to the public at some point. It needs a lot of fine-tuning first.

Anyway, back to the game.

We haven't talked much about the possibility of there being two mafias (5:2:2), rather than the 5:3:1 SK scenario that we've discussed most. I'd very much like to hear from the rest of you as to whether you think that is a likely scenario or not, and why. I've been looking over the last few pages with this possibility in mind, and come up with some disturbing hypotheses that I think support that scenario. But before I spill on those, what do the rest of you think?

[Gemelli]

I can't see why scum would kill him, when he's probably a good lynch prospect for tomorrow, especially since he'll probably be investigated tonight.

This comment makes no sense to me.

If originality is indeed a pro-town vig, we have created a strategy where there is a significant chance that he will target a mafioso. If you were mafia, would you be willing to take the risk of leaving a killing pro-town power role alive, just because you think the town might lynch him?

If originality is an SK, he is unpredictable. Although I find this scenario implausible, there is still a risk to the mafia. The only reason I could see for mafia leaving him alive tonight would be if 3/4 of the players on our suspect list are town, but as vollkan has pointed out, there is a high probability that an SK-orig would ignore our list entirely.

And of course, if originality is mafia, there is a SK or another mafia faction that has no reason to leave him alive tonight, as he is a direct threat to their win conditions.

Moreover, Spurg is an odd NK choice for mafia. Mafia tend to go for the most dangerous pro-town players, whereas Spurg really just looks like a non-contributing lurker.

In the threads I browsed on this site before joining, it seemed that the mafia's first N1 target had a roughly equal chance of being an outspoken/skilled player, OR a non-contributing lurker. The theory seems to be that since lurkers don't contribute as much content, they provide fewer opportunities to make statements that can be twisted to create fear and uncertainty. I don't know if I subscribe to that theory or not, but I thought it worth pointing out.

This scenario is giving me concern, please discuss:
1) AlyG & Orig are mafia, most likely on their own.
2) They NK Carrot
3) On D2 they see that Spurg was killed also and that AlyG comes under tremendous threat of lynching.
4) AlyG panics and claims tracker with Orig to hopefully save themselves.
5) Orig reasons that it is unlikely a vig would have killed Spurg on N1 with no information
6) Orig claims vig
7) Dybeck (SK) realises that Orig is the mafia and that he needs to get rid of him to have a hope

I have a hard time going for this exact scenario for a few reasons:

(1) A two-person mafia coupled with a single SK seems unbalanced in favor of the town.
(2) I don't think that the threat to AlyG was all that serious -- a FoS from shaft.ed and votes from oman and vollkan -- and in any event, why would he claim tracker vs. his scumbuddy? Wouldn't he be more likely to target someone else, ANYONE else really?

[The 5:2:2 scenario] is possible, though I would venture to say that it is quite unlikely.

(Added 5:2:2 to the quote to clarify) Why do you find it unlikely? I'm not saying that I think this is MORE likely than our 5:3:1 scenario, but it seems perfectly plausible to me.

Consider, for example, the scenario of two scumpairs: Dybeck-Elias, Oman-Orig.

The first is consistent with Dybeck's consistent attacks on originality, as well as his earlier comment about "the other scumgroup" and his question "does this bother anyone else?" It is also consistent with the frustration evident in his recent posts, as they could be indicative of his partner failing to participate in the process.

The second is consistent with Oman's and Originality's actions on Day 2. In this scenario, this pair is at a disadvantage: one of their members is outed, but they don't know for sure who the second pair is. But they have strong suspicions that Dybeck is a member of the other faction, and as such both are pushing for his lynch. This would help explain why originality is so resistant to recognizing Oman's behavior as scummy.

There are certainly other pairings that work with the posts made to date -- I will let someone else do the honors of analyzing the possible Dybeck-Gemelli pair -- but those two jumped out at me as not simply feasible, but quite likely, possibilities.

I don't want to take us too far down the rabbit hole of analysis-paralysis here, but I don't want our entire strategy to hang on an assumption of SK behavior, when I think we need to account for the possibility that no SK exists.

[Gemelli]

And I agree that we should have two lists one mafia-lynch contingent and one town-lynch contigent, but that idea was shot down without much discussion.

Sorry for missing this comment (and apparently the original spot where the idea was shot down) earlier. I think the idea is a sound one, although I'm not sure that the names on my list would necessarily change. What I WOULD change is the degree of emphasis I place on the "No Kill" option ... if we mislynch town tonight, the impact of a misvig would be disasterous. If anything, my "lynch town" contingency list would be:

1. No Kill
2. No Kill
3. No Kill
4. Oman (with Dybeck as a replacement if Oman is lynched)

[Gemelli]

Not sure what to say about two scum groups. But in regards to the dybeck slip up about the "other group" remember this is a closed game and the "other group" isn't going to know that there are two groups.

I think that a member of a scum group would be able to deduce this, though. If you started a 12-person game with info on yourself and one fellow mafioso, wouldn't you assume that there was more scum present in the game? The fact that there were two NKs last night would confirm two mafia groups (as opposed to the implausible 2 mafia/2 SKs setup).

Still, as you say, this doesn't prove anything one way or the other. I was just wondering why the possibility of two scum groups had been dismissed without comment.

Dybeck

: I haven't seen you answer this question directly, so I'll ask it. In post 743, what you said was "Which means that tonight we're likely to lose originality to the other scum group and me to originality. Is there anyone unhappy with this?" What exactly did you mean by "the other scum group?" Do you believe that we have two mafia factions?

[Gemelli]

IMHO, strangling sounds more like the act of a serial killer than of a vigilante.

But that's all a moot point anyway; we don't even know if the mafia and/or SK will kill the same way each night yet. For all we know, our mod picks the kill method at random every time. I think it's a mistake to use kill methods to interpret roles until we have a larger sample size to look at (morning of D3).

Updated consensus list (reflecting Dybeck's latest list):

Originality:

1. Dybeck :: 2. Lucienne :: 3. Elias :: 4. Oman

Dybeck:

1. NK :: 2. Oman :: 3. vollkan :: 4. Lucienne

Vollkan:

1. NK :: 2. Dybeck :: 3. Oman :: 4. Elias

Oman:

1. NK :: 2. Dybeck :: 3. Elias :: 4. Lucienne

AlyG:

1. NK :: 2. Dybeck :: 3. Oman :: 4. Elias

Gemelli:

1. NK :: 2. Oman :: 3. Dybeck :: 4. Elias

shaft.ed:

1. NK :: 2. Oman :: 3. Elias :: 4. Dybeck

Lucienne:

1. NK :: 2. Oman :: 3. Dybeck :: 4. Elias

Weighted Town Consensus to Date for Originality's Night Action:

(Position 1 = 4 points, position 2 = 3 points, etc.)

No Kill: 28 points
Dybeck: 18 points
Oman: 17 points
Elias: 10 points
Lucienne: 5 points
Vollkan: 2 points

[Gemelli]

Vollkan, that is an extremely interesting analysis. It sounds like you are discussing a scenario where, instead of giving originality a consensus list, we explicitly tell him to No Kill. Is that accurate?

Let me think out loud at how this might play out in our potential scenarios:

(1) Originality is an SK, we lynch town: 4:3:1.

In this scenario, originality has no skin in the game, so to speak, and is equally as likely to kill town, kill mafia, or perform no kill. The mafia are most likely to target originality as a threat to their win condition. Results: Mafia kills originality, and we are at 4:2:0 (orig kills mafia) -or- 3:3:0 (orig kills town; town loses) -or- 4:3:0 (orig does not kill; lylo).

(2) Originality is an SK, we lynch mafia: 5:2:1.

Same basic situation as above. Results: Mafia kills originality, and we are at 5:1:0 (orig kills mafia) -or- 4:2:0 (orig kills town) -or- 5:2:0 (orig does not kill).

(3) Originality is mafia, we lynch town: 4:3:1.

In this scenario, the SK will most likely kill originality. Results: We move to 4:2:0 (mafia hit SK) or 3:2:1 (mafia hit town; lylo and likely town loss).

(4) Originality is mafia, we lynch SK: 5:3:0.

In this scenario, the mafia hit a townie. Results: we move to 4:3:0 (lylo), BUT we have confirmed that originality is mafia.

(5) Originality is mafia, we lynch mafia: 5:2:1.

In this scenario, the SK will most likely nightkill orig per the logic above. Results: we move to 4:2:1 (mafia hit town) -or- 5:2:0 (mafia hit SK).

(6) Originality is vig, we lynch town: 5:3.

We have told originality NOT to perform a night kill, and he complies. The mafia nightkills a town power role. Results: We move to 4:3 (lylo).

(7) Originality is vig, we lynch mafia: 5:2.

We have told originality NOT to perform a night kill, and he complies. The mafia nightkills a town power role. Results: We move to 4:2.

It seems to me that the mafia would prefer to allow orig to make a nightkill if originality is indeed a vig, AND if there is ample evidence to suggest that originality might target a townie tonight (based on the town consensus list and originality's stated opinions). This allows them to focus on our claimed tracker tonight, allow originality to kill a town role, and then generate renewed suspicion on originality tomorrow morning.

From that perspective, it certainly seems like pushing originality towards a no-kill action tonight -- as opposed to a broader choice -- is a reasonable argument. I'm not 100% sold on it yet, but the logic seems right to me.

[Gemelli]

So in reviewing all of this I think it's best to direct orig for an absolute No-Kill. If he is mafia the SK will kill him anyway. If he is SK he's desperate, but I think the mafia would be likely to want him dead (but unfortunately maybe not tonight). If he's the vig he shouldn't be killing anyway.

I'm leaning in this direction, too. Also, note that from the mafia's perspective, they would have no way of knowing if originality is SK or vig. If they leave him alone tonight, it's a huge gamble on their part that he is actually an SK.

And dybeck, I can't help but suspect that a no-lynch would be a bad play for the town, regardless of what we tell originality to do tonight. Doesn't that essentially put us back into the same situation we have now, but with one or two fewer players on the town side?

I'll try to do some math on this later; work is heavy today.

[Gemelli]

Well, we have two options:
1) Outright ban
2) Consensus approach

1) has the advantage of apparently confirming that Orig is innocent. Obviously, though, if we ban it outright then SK Orig might decide to not NK as a means of ensuring his survival to N3 (because if he NKed he would be noosed). On the plus side, it guarantees that we will not lose by tomorrow morning. Another obvious cost is the fact that we will very likely lose AlyG.

I think that's a possibility, but not necessarily more likely than us losing originality. If they leave orig alive, the town essentially gets to make two lynch decisions on N3. If they leave AlyG alive, the town gets to hear the results of another track. Regardless of what we tell orig to do tonight, the Mafia will have a tough decision to make tonight.

2) has the immediate effect of making Orig a much more potent threat to the mafia. With 2), Orig's death is more likely than AlyG's. However, it also runs the risk of Orig NKing a town.

What's been bugging me about approach 2), though, is that through the consensus lists, the mafia has enough information to make an informed guess as to what originality is likely to do with this information.

If more than half of the players on the consensus list are town, and/or originality has been leaning in favor of killing a player that is NOT mafia, I would actually expect the mafia to

advocate

the "let orig do his thing" approach. This would set up a nice metagame strategy for D3: nightkill AlyG, hope that orig targets a town role, and then argue for his lynch.

This will put a lot of the D2 posts into a very interesting light once we arrive at D3. It's made me rethink at least one player's alignment after a brief skim of the consensus list discussions.

It is a debatable point, I think and there really is not a clear basis for one over the other. I think that given the uncertainty of Vig/SK already, 1 is probably sufficient, but I don't like losing the greater uncertainty of 2).

I would argue that the uncertainty of "will he act or not" would be offset by the public-view consensus lists. Everyone will know who the players on the consensus list are, but only the mafia will know how many of the players on that list are mafia.

As such, I am strongly in favor of approach 1) for tonight. In our current situation, I would favor a low-risk/low-gain strategy over a high-risk/high-gain one.

[Gemelli]

Originality, I think your reasoning for targetting Dybeck is sound. But you've been kind of buddy-buddy with Oman for a lot of the game, scummy behavior notwithstanding -- see posts 61-62, 126, 195, 300, 389, 435, 553, 555, 595, 622, 698, and 738, all of which feature you complimenting or defending him -- and that makes me nervous. Just about everyone else in the game seems to find his behavior scummy, metagame or not. Why are you so convinced he's town in spite of it all?

[Gemelli]

And guys, work is going to be busy for a few days. But to help you all along with the scum catching, I give you the beta version of my Mafia Thread Parser.

Now, in addition to creating a summary of the entire game, you can enter a player's forum name and the parser will show you ALL of the posts they've made during the game, including hotlinks to take you right to the thread if you need context.

I will be taking the script down in a few days to perform more maintenance on it. For now, please don't publicize it too much, and remember that it is a beta script and as such may not produce 100% reliable results. That being said, I think it's going to be helpful in analyzing the game histories of our top 3-4 scum candidates.

[Gemelli]

Oops, forgot to mention: you must enter the player name to track with no caps for now. And the script converts all of the post text to lowercase because that made it easier for me to do the screen-scraping.

[Gemelli]

The main differences are that my script:

(1) Shows those posts in the context of other major actions (votes, FoS, etc.) within the game,
(2) Retains the actual post numbers, and
(3) Looks much uglier than the actual thread posts

And yes, for purposes of looking for votes/FoS/etc., it only looks at bolded text (and discards all quoted text).

Anyway. We now have two players at L-2, and two players who are not voting (Lucienne and the hopefully-soon-to-be-replaced Elias). Lucienne, where do you stand on the possible scum candidates? Are you leaning one way or the other?

I'm not convinced by Oman's "I bandwagon all the time" meta defense, and the originality/Oman BFF-style post history is disturbing. They may not be in cahoots, but I'm at a loss to explain the post history otherwise.

I agree that dybeck is still looking dubious, but vollkan, assuming that dybeck thought that Oman was hammerable, I wouldn't describe his post as "chomping at the bit" to get him lynched. Wouldn't he have just gone ahead and voted without asking for input?

Also, question for you vets out there: what *is* the appropriate time to ask for role claims from suspicious players? I'd assume that L-1 would be a natural claim request trigger.

[Gemelli]

Since then, I have considered people who run the "any objections?"/ "Shall I do the honours?" line to be scummy. Feel free to disagree with me here; if I am wrong then being told so will help me as a player.

It would be unreasonable for me to tell someone with experience in this game that they are "wrong" for playing a certain way. But FWIW, I view this game as one of consensus-building. This may be the new-guy perspective thing again, but I am currently more inclined to view actions taken arbitrarily and without discussion as scummy. I do see where you are coming from here -- mafia *should* certainly try to blend into the mob, and asking for consensus is one way to do that -- but I think that you could try to argue scummy behavior regardless of whether someone acts independently OR tries to build consensus. (Or lurks, or posts too much, etc. etc. Scum can and will do all of those things.)

Again, dybeck, I demand that you point out another

SK candidate

. Before your argument was that Oman is SK, now he has swapped to gobsmackingly obvmafia. I don't like your certainty and I don't like your failure to explain your new views.

I agree that this was a rather dramatic shift, and that it should have been prefaced by an explanation. But vollkan, this part of your post really bothers me. For the past few pages, you have been arguing that you think that the most likely scenario is that we do NOT have an SK, and that originality is a vig. Your post is inconsistent with that perspective, and the shift came without comment -- since this is the same behavior that you are criticizing dybeck for, surely the irony is not lost on you. Coupled with the loaded word "demand", this raises suspicion flags for me.

1) A townie should NEVER be 100% certain of anything.

Irony alert! The words "always" and "never" reflect a 100% certain perspective. This reads to me like "do as I say, not as I do."

The other thing that's bugging me about the last few pages is that you stated in post 953 that you were on the fence between Oman and Dybeck, and wanted to "wait until Oman checks in before I consider changing my vote." Oman posted a relatively content-free post in 956, and then in 957 you posted a re-read on 951 -- this is where you first demanded that dybeck identify an SK -- that ended with a confirm vote on dybeck. To me, this feels a lot like smoke and mirrors: focusing discussion back on your primary target to pull attention away from Oman.

Dybeck is certainly acting scummy now, and I will be the first to admit that my initial read on him was naive. But vollkan, over the last 2-3 pages, I am getting the nagging feeling that you are not being objective in how you treat Oman.

FoS: Oman

(yes, that's a vote AND an FoS; that's how I roll) and

FoS: vollkan

until Oman actually addresses the points that shaft.ed has been bringing up, and until vollkan indicates whether or not he is satisfied with those answers.

[Gemelli]

Sorry, wanted to address one more point from 972:

As a meta point, Oman is lurking in a number of other games as well.

Since Oman's last post in this game (964), he has posted:

* 6 times in Newbie 479
* 3 times in Newbie 459
* 3 times in Ferris Wheel 2
* 1 time in Newbie 473
* 1 time in Open 50
* 1 time in Mini 504
* 3 times in Open 51
* 2 times in Mini 483
* 2 times in Mini 500
* 1 time in Stargate SG-1

As well as various discussion threads, bringing his total to

40 posts

on mafiascum.net since he last graced this thread with his presence. Despite being the target of one of the two major bandwagons in this game.

So he may be lurking in games that aren't listed above, but it's not like he's gone V/LA or anything.

[Gemelli]

Thanks, Elias, and welcome back to the game.

Earlier in the discussion, we had talked about vig being a suicidal claim for a SK ... which is the main reason that some of us have been willing to entertain the vigOrig scenario as a possibility. While I agree with you that originality's posts have been deeply suspicious, IMHO there are three things working in his favor at the moment:

(1) He admitted to targetting CC, claimed vig, and supported AlyG's claim out of the gate. I would not expect any of this behavior from a SK, since it paints a huge target on his back for the mafia.
(2) He has said that he is willing not to kill tonight. If we end up with two deaths, we will have confirmed that he's scum and we lynch him.
(3) If we lynch him tonight, it makes the Mafia's kill decision easier tonight with one less claimed power role on the table.

So while I wholeheartedly agree with your suspicions, I don't think that an originality lynch is our best choice for today. Sorry to hear about the lost post; when you have time I would be very interested to hear your thoughts on all of the other players. Particularly the two that are at the top of our current vote list.

[Gemelli]

Limited availability today, so please excuse typos etc. due to rushed post.

The thing is, that I find it scummy when people say "Any objections to me hammering?" I am much more comfortable with "Is this lynch appropriate?" or something to that effect (though I realise that this is now voided for this game because I have revealed my preference).

OK, I get it. To me, both questions are mechanically identical, though semantically different.

The former ("objections") I do not like because it is effectively trying to deny blame IMHO. Of course, a scum would be idiotic to say "But none of you objected!" but the point is that at some level this seeks to reduce the person's individual culpability.

You've completely misunderstood me.

I asked dybeck to point out another SK candidate because he had said that Oman was obvmafia with Orig whereas before he was saying Oman was SK. That has no bearing on my own view.

No, I understood that. But I found it disengenuous that you were continuing to press Dybeck with a question that you had already answered to your own apparent satisfaction earlier in the thread. I can see this as a scumhunting tactic, but the number of times you repeated the question -- and the urgency that you seemed to be placing on his answering it -- struck me as odd.

I don't follow you...Are you saying it is ironic that I am saying that townies should never be 100% certain?

No, and FWIW I agree with the principle. I was saying that it was ironic that you chose to use the absolute term "never" when arguing that townies should avoid absolutes.

I know that if Oman is lynched and comes up scum, I will very likely be accused also, but that is not going to alter my behaviour.

Fair enough. I'm in the same boat with dybeck, so I sympathize. I'm just trying to look at the notable relationships I've seen among players in the game, and commenting on them as they occur to me.

I want to add that I have found your posts to be well-reasoned and logical throughout the game. If I am pushing on you a bit lately, it's because I have read games where you played as scum, and you come across just as well-reasoned and logical in them. I feel that I was falling into a trust pattern a little early in the game, and have since decided to challenge my own earlier preconceptions and test new hypotheses.

WRT the most recent posts, they seem to boil down to a few key points:

* Dybeck has tended to use loaded terms like "obvious," "100%," and "positive" in stating his opinions.
* When Dybeck changes his mind on a given point, he does not post retractions or even "I've changed my mind." He shifts to a newly-certain stance on the new position without comment.
* Dybeck has stayed focused on Originality through most of D2 and failed to comment on other players until very recently. He has switched from arguing that he is a SK to arguing that he is mafia.

All of the evidence vollkan's posted seems to fall into those three categories. Is that a fair summary?

I'll admit here a major concern which has been considerably exacerbated since Elias started and since I have begun analysing all of this dybeck v Orig in more detail:
That I may be analysing Orig by my own standards of behaviour. If we take everything collectively and import a certain standard of newbishness to him, I am almost inclined to call him fairly obvious scum and I might almost be inclined to vote for him.

It's a good point, and one that I raised myself way back in post 609. I'm shaking my head that that post was one of the reasons you stated in post 663 for putting me at #3 on your suspect list. Adopt, adapt, and improve, I suppose.

[Gemelli]

Do you mean that "I had already answered" or that "dybeck had already answered"?

I meant that you seemed to have determined YOUR OWN answer to that question prior to asking it. I'm not seeing how his answer would have affected your view of his opportunism.

I don't see where you mention your own standards....

Sorry, should have quoted the relevant pieces of the posts.

Where I originally put forward the idea that origMafia may have claimed vig due to a rushed decision:

One scenario that I think should be considered was that orig targetted CC as a mafia or (less likely) SK, and then simply made a rushed decision on how to respond once AlyG revealed the targetting. In other words, let's not assume that players in the game always make the perfect decisions.

I posted a few more times after this, trying to understand the case vs. dybeck and continuing to explain why I found orig scummy. The next time you posted, you said:

My thoughts for now:
My 3 suspects are:
1) Dybeck
2) Oman
3) Gemelli

Then when I asked you to verify your rationale for putting me at #3:

Mostly your predecessor.

And some of this stuff regarding Orig.

It's not a major deal by any means. I was mostly laughing quietly to myself that the stance I took at the start of the game got me branded as possibly scummy, and now we're all discussing it as a likely scenario. I know that much of your suspicion came from me questioning the case vs dybeck, but it was that piece of your post that came back to me after Elias's post spurred the latest discussion tangent.

It probably doesn't bear further discussion unless you have questions for me about it. These are the things I find funny when sleep deprivation is in the house.

[Gemelli]

Limited posting time for me again (FWIW this happens to me most weekends). Here's where I currently stand:

(1) I feel considerably less favorable to originality after hearing his post 344 recapped. A smokescreen might have made sense AFTER someone pointed a finger at you on D2 as a possible suspect. Making that post preemtively does, as vollkan says, look more to me like fabricating evidence.

(2) If originality is mafia, we shouldn't need to worry about him today, since he is an obvious NK target for another scum group and removing him today still allows the mafia their kill. If he's an SK, leaving him alive today still makes him an NK target for the mafia, but at a potential cost to the town (he would made a NK of his own tonight). The mafia might of course choose to leave him alive N2, reasoning that the town would autolynch him on D3 if he isn't killed, but they would be making a calculated gamble here that he is not actually a vig. So basically, I think the question here is whether it's worth risking a townie life in return for using our lynch vote on another possible target.

(3) I still have my eye on Dybeck. Rereading his combined posts from this thread does not generate a lot of warm fuzzies, recent analysis from Elias and Vollkan notwithstanding. I encourage you all to review his post history, particularly posts from Day 1. A quick meta scan of a few of his games suggests that he is playing somewhat more aggressively here than in games where he was townie.

(4) I'm glad to have Elias back. And still very interested to hear where he stands on these two major bandwagons.

(5) I have not seen anything substantial posted in Oman's defense yet, and am still most comfortable with his lynch tonight, barring extra evidence being introduced on dybeck or discussion around the pros/cons of lynching originality tonight.

Vollkan, I see that you've posted since I started this, but will have to read your post tomorrow. Bed now

[Gemelli]

Bah, can't sleep after all.

Gemelli: as for the Dybeck wagon/case, its alright, but its not too convincing. I would probably be willing to vote Dybeck at deadline, though I'd rather lynch orig who i think is certain scum. Also, I asked for Shafted to outline the Oman case, he never did. If you would be willing to, I'd be happy to listen and tell you what I think.

I think shaft.ed summarized the Oman case pretty well in post 1005.

Vollkan, I like where you're going with the analysis there. Unfortunately, I think that bussing is more than a little likely, so I'm not sure how much credence to place on it at this time. Must re-read tomorrow with the benefits of sleep.

Also, for those of you who care, I made the thread parser publicly available via a post in the Discussion forum. This is the last I'll speak of the script in this thread, but feel free to post in Discussion if you'd like to see things tweaked or changed.

[Gemelli]

Vollkan, I like where you're going with the analysis there. Unfortunately, I think that bussing is more than a little likely, so I'm not sure how much credence to place on it at this time. Must re-read tomorrow with the benefits of sleep.

Well; yours and shaft.ed's behaviour to Oman does not look like bussing. It could be, but it seems genuine.

Thank you. I was actually referring to the votes on originality and dybeck as possible bus candidates.

Now then: as I said, I think your analysis is a good start and it's EXACTLY the kind of thinking we should each be doing for ourselves as D2 winds down. What I really like about this is that you've highlighted the two basic assumptions -- in this case, orig = vig, and oman = mafia -- and spelled out the most likely ramifications.

That being said, I think it would be worthwhile for each of us to craft our own scenarios with our own set of assumptions. Not only will this help us make a good decision today, but it will prepare us for the new information we will have gained by the morning of D3.

One of the problems I'm having with my own analysis is that if originality IS mafia, we have a SK who is a complete wild card. The issue with this is that the SK's goals would be completely aligned with the town's at this point; they want to hunt mafia just as we do. I guess there's not much point in worrying about this until orig's alignment is confirmed, though.

Oman, good luck with your HSC. I'll hold out hope that you're able to replace back into the game soon.

[Gemelli]

Finally, Oman god luck with your exams. I've got to say your most recent post has refuted a hefty portion of my argument against you.

I agreed with most of your post, but this last bit caught me off guard. Which post are you talking about? I still haven't seen him refute any of the standing arguments at all.

Not trying to be obtuse here, but Oman's is a case where I haven't seen any real arguments in his defense aside from "I always bandwagon." Face it, we have at least 3 scum among our group of 9 remaining players, and a deadline has been put in play. Are there three players in the game who are acting scummier than he is?

The timing on needing a replacement totally stinks, though

[Gemelli]

Well, most of my argument was based on the fact that I thought he was not avoiding this game, but simply lurking in order to get away from the heat. He started posting less around the end of last month, and that's when he made the comment about "the town was doing so well hunting scum." That's really what set me off about Oman. I felt his constant avoidance of this issue was him trying to appear sloppy and just wait out the day since dybeck was such a good candidate. But since he's actually asking to be replaced, I can understand him making a statement like that.
While I take issue with his bandwagoning, if you do any meta on him you'll know this is a constant tactic of his regardless of side. In and of itself I don't think it's enough to make a case against him. Especially when I feel I've been giving others a lot of benefit of the doubt due to some gut feelings of mine.

While I found the lurking and bandwagoning troubling, I was more suspicious of Oman based on his D1 actions than anything else. Without further ado, I give you:

The Gemelli Case vs Oman, Part 1: The Rolefishing Waffle

Pages 9-10 show Oman taking both sides on the matter of whether rolefishing -- specifically, getting Dr. BS to post more information about his role -- is a bad thing or not.

First, read his post 218:

Yeah, rolefishing means fishing (or searching) for players roles. Its not good because if you said for example: What is your role Blackstrike and he said "Doctor" then he's NKed for sure, or if he's lieing the real doctor might inadvertantly reveal himself by not beleiving the claim. Basiccaly, It doesn't help the town one bit.

He then does a 180-degree turn in posts 239 and 242 (read page 10 for the context). These posts were follow-ups to Dybeck asking Dr BS if he could prove his powerrole in 233, and Elias asking him in 236 why he wants to get this information. In post 239, Oman says that this information helps the town:

Well, if he can prove himself, then we let him live. He proves himself to us N1 and we know for sure that he is said powerrole.

No, I don't buy that. Info helps town, no matter what. It might help the mafia to some degree, but most of the time, the town wil benefit.

I happen to agree with the sentiment from post 218; power role information should stay hidden, particularly on day 1. Posts 239 and 242 are his tacit approval of further rolefishing. (He then backpedals in post 263, after meeting more town resistance and suspicion.)

:: The Gemelli Case vs. Oman: Intermission ::

Something I found odd, but not worthy of major suspicion, in the posts around this period was that dybeck and oman used the exact same wording in posts 261 and 269, both claiming that they were "not feeling" the originality wagon. This is probably not meaningful on its own, but combined with other posts, could be corroborative.

The Gemelli Case vs. Oman, Part 2: Ryan Goes Overboard

Most of my suspicion on Oman focused on what happened in pages 12-13, an arc of posts in which Ryan ended up modkilling himself. I think we can all agree that he was an idiot for doing that. However, the fact remains that he is a confirmed town player, and that his overreaction WAS prompted by the start of a bandwagon moving quickly against him. So there is merit at looking at these posts for clues.

Let's look at how that all started, with ryan posting a question to Dr BS:

Back on Page 9 you hint at a power role, now you say you aren't claiming anything? How about instead of not scum hunting you do a little bit of that?

In post 293, originality used the quote function to recast Ryan's statement as "Dr.B should roleclaim". I think I've said this before, but I found that to be an incredibly scummy thing to do. We are talking about two lines of text here. Why bother creating the quote tags and then changing their contents? Paraphrasing is fine, but going to the extra work of dressing up a paraphrase as a quote is just dishonest.

FWIW, I first read ryan's post to mean "How about instead of not scum hunting, you do a little bit of

scum hunting

?" Originality chose a different interpretation but went to the trouble to disguise it as a quote.

Post 295, ryan called originality out for post 293, and started overreacting.

Post 297, Oman voted for ryan. He claimed "No this is not based on whatever originality was saying (WTF?)", then proceeded to echo originality's "you are rolefishing" arguments in the last 2/3 of his post.

Posts 300-301, Oman and originality gave each other textual reach-arounds.

Post 302, Dybeck added his vote to the Ryan bandwagon. He claimed that Ryan's post "Back on Page 9 you hint at a power role, now you say you aren't claiming anything?" is blatant misrepresentation. (Actually, it was true ... in post 220, Dr BS *does* hint at a power role, and in post 290, he reiterates that he is not claiming doctor.)

Post 303, AlyG agreed with dybeck that Ryan has "blatantly misinterpreted" Dr BS's comments, but did not vote.

Post 304, Oman asked AlyG two leading questions:

@AlyG:
Where do you fall on ryan so far?
Has originality done anything recently that looks scummy?

Post 305, ryan started really going batspit. He reiterated his suspicions on originality, and suspected Oman for his use of leading questions. Which brings us to what I found to be Oman's most damning post in the thread:

You want to talk about controlling the town or TRYING to control the town, let's check door #1...........ah yes its Oman.

OMGUS gets you nowhere friend.

Why am I controling the town now?

I'm trying to find out who's the scum, so if you think me making sure I don't place a vote on a power role is role fishing than I'm guilty as charged.

(1)

Firstly, what does it matter if you're voting a town powerrole or a vanillia townie? They're both town.

I had a quote paraphrased and attempted to use against me and it's laughable how Oman nor dybeck are realzing that

(2)

You fail at reading text.

No this is not based on whatever originality was saying (WTF?)

(3)

And I hate to defend other people, but dybeck never even mentions the fact that you were rolefishing.

So nice try,

(4)

read the arguments on you before you defend against them and OMGUS me less.

(Bold numbers added as index)

(1) Ryan claimed he wanted to avoid voting for a power role. Oman has, I believe, deliberately misrepresented ryan's post to imply that Ryan has indicated that voting for a townie is OK.

(2) Ryan's comment is stating a fact. Oman replies with a classic Ad Hominem attack, putting the burden on him by implying that ryan only makes that case because he is a bad reader.

(3) Where in ryan's post does he claim that dybeck accused him of rolefishing? Nowhere.

(4) Another Ad Hominem attack. Ryan must be wrong, because he is a bad reader and anyway his whole post is nothing but OMGUS.

**This post, specifically, includes at least three examples of Oman distorting facts in order to advance his case on Ryan. I cannot reconcile that behavior with a pro-town role.**

Oman and ryan continued their back-and-forth in 311-314. Then Dr BS added his vote to ryan in post 316.

Post 318, originality used the same twist on ryan's words to suggest that he asked BS for a roleclaim, indicating that he thinks "that" obviously referred to role claiming in ryan's original post. He then suggests that since ryan later claimed that he wasn't asking for a roleclaim, he is a liar. He votes for Ryan.

Post 319, AlyG posted continued suspicions of originality, indicates that he buys the "Ryan was rolefishing" argument, and HoS's ryan. 320, ryan snapped and posted his role PM.

======================

That's it in a nutshell. My main arguments against Oman are that he:

* Seemed to be pushing for Dr BS to reveal role information, then backpedalled when it became clear that consensus was against him
* Distorted game information, including reiterating facts that originality had distorted previously, in order to make a case against Ryan
* Used "rolefishing" as a primary source of suspicion on Ryan, conveniently forgetting that in post 242, he had advocated the exact same thing

The lurking and bandwaggoning were just minor aspects of why my vote went on him in the first place.

On rereading this recap, my suspicions against originality and dybeck are also quite high, but Oman is still my first choice for "most likely to be scum based on events to date."

[Gemelli]

I think that ryan's posts looked as scummy as they did for two main reasons:

1. His tone tended to be hostile and defensive
2. His posts were being manipulated and reinterpreted by Oman and Originality

I can't say how I would have reacted if I'd been in the game at the time; for my initial read I had the advantage of knowing that VH/Ryan was a confirmed, scummy-sounding, dead townie.

I think the case vs. dybeck is also quite strong, and I would participate in a dybeck lynch if the consensus is to leave Oman alive tonight. I still suspect that originality is scum as well, but the previous posts on this page from vollkan and shafted indicate why I think it's safe for the town to leave him alone today. Anyway, he's promised not to NK tonight. So if two players go down, we have an autolynch ready on D3.

[Gemelli]

Er, that last sentence should read: "So if two players die during N2, we have an autolynch ready on D3."

[Gemelli]

Korlash, you rock! Welcome to the game.

And when you read through the last few pages of my posts ... it isn't personal

[Gemelli]

Except for the fact that this allows them to let him live, get the kill on Aly, the only other protown role revealed (or some other random person, depending on the wifom game they'll play), and count on us to lynch Orig in the morning for surviving the night. This is the problem I see with it anyhow. It's putting too much reliance on the mafias kill.

The problem with that line of reasoning, though, is:

(1) If originality is mafia, lynching him will not stop the mafia from making an NK tonight -- they will target AlyG regardless of whether orig lives or dies. Regardless of who the SK kills at this point -- and he/she has no incentive to help the mafia out by passing on the night action -- we will have two NKs, and will know for sure that originality is (or was) mafia.
(2) If originality is NOT mafia, the mafia has no way of knowing whether he's a SK or a vig. So if we don't lynch him, and they target AlyG tonight, there will be an NK that is not controlled by the mafia on N3.

[Gemelli]

Unvote

The problem I see with my case against Oman/Korlash is that now that Oman has left the game, it's impossible to ask him to account for his previous actions. I still have some heavy suspicions in place -- based purely on what Oman was doing in the game before Korlash replaced in -- but I doubt that I'm ever going to get any responses to the issues I brought up in my case against him. (The paranoid part of me wonders if Oman orchestrated this on purpose. Again, we'll never know the answer to that question until it doesn't matter.)

That being said, Korlosh: if you'd care to read my post 1055, and hazard a guess as to what Oman might have been trying to accomplish with the points I brought up, it'd be much appreciated

I agree with what you and shaft.ed have posted about vollkan. Yes, there is cause to suspect him. I have noticed (and vollkan has confirmed) that in games that vollkan has played as mafia, he has hardly ever come under suspicion. Doing a read of those games, he does indeed appear pro-town. This isn't a tell either way, since he also looks pro-town when he plays as town. Just a reminder that as scum, he is a very dangerous player.

But ultimately, I think that there are other players in this game who I find more suspicious than him. With at least three other players ahead of him on my suspect-o-meter -- Korlash/Oman, Dybeck, and Originality -- I'm not inclined to pursue him as a target for today.

Overall, I think it would be a mistake for ANY of us to start assuming that ANY other player in the game is town-aligned at this point. Remember that the town has already lost at least 1/3 of its players, and that at least 1/3 of the remaining players ARE scum. Collaboration and consensus remain important, but let's stay objectively suspicious too

Now then: Dybeck.

You first raised your D2 suspicions of Oman in post 673. You reiterated them in 845, 888, 951, 969, 973, 981, and 998. Then in 1074 and 1089, you push for Korlash's lynch and add your vote to him.

In NONE of those posts have you ever articulated your reasons for suspecting him. Arguments have been raised and discussed by several players, but you haven't contributed any of your own opinions.

Please state, in your own words, your reasons for believing that Oman/Korlosh is scum. Votes without context smack of opportunism. You don't need to convince me that he may be scum -- I've made my own opinions perfectly clear -- but you DO need to convince me that you actually have a reason.

[Gemelli]

All well and good, except that OMAN HAS NOT BEEN BACKING ORIGINALITY.

Originality has been publicly supporting Oman all game, yes. But not the other way around.

This is looking very much to me like a case where you've skimmed the arguments that others have made, but really only picked up the fact that there is a bandwagon against Oman/Korlash and are trying to take advantage of it.

[Gemelli]

So after a big post from Korlash (which was his first actual informative one) you don't even acknowledge it and go ahead and vote him. I have a HOS on you and to me you seem to be the most scummy person in the game so

Vote: Dybeck

AlyG, can you articulate your reason for voting Dybeck more clearly? Saying "you seem to be the most scummy person in the game" doesn't really explain WHAT about his behavior you find scummy. With a deadline, it is becoming more and more important for all of us to explain our thinking.

Along those lines,

Lucienne:

please let us know if/when you will be able to post more thoughts on the game to date. Family takes priority, obviously, but I'd like to be sure that we hear from you before we get deadlined.

...

First off, thank you for responding to the questions I raised in post 1055. As you noted, it's hard to imagine what was going on in Oman's head when he made the arguments he did, but I commend you for at least not dodging my request and having an honest go at it.

Congraturations, you just earned a patented *HEADDESK*!

Why on earth did you just claim vanilla?! You do realise that if you are town all you are doing is flagging to the mafia precisely where the power roles are likely to be, because you have just told them that you are not one.

Vollkan, I think you are strongly overreacting here.

If you had bolded the portion of the sentence that read "I am town, and logically, with three vanilla's down..." you could have just as easily made the case that he was implying a power role. I mean, the avatar includes the words "100% vanilla," but it also includes a picture of an evil demon thing waggling its eyebrows. I detect a certain amount of sarcasm from the combination.

And while I would agree with you that it is NOT rolefishing to tell someone not to claim vanilla, asking the question "why did you claim vanilla?" when he hadn't done so IS rolefishing a bit, of the "have you stopped beating your wife" school. It's almost impossible to answer your question without giving away some information about whether you are vanilla or not.

That being said, Korlash: the statement "I am of town alignment" is meaningless in this game. Every player in the game will make that statement if you ask them to confirm or refute it. That isn't a defense. I think you were prodded into this direction by vollkan's posts, but you didn't need to go there. You're being a bit defensive and that isn't going to help allay suspicion of you.

Why would you want us to stop number-crunching?

*sigh* It seems Oman has been replaced by a village idiot.

Please re-read what you wrote in post 1107. I understand your frustration, but you don't need to resort to fallacious arguments yourself.

I think it is understandable for a new player, who has just read all 45 pages of this thread -- including a lot of long, long analytical posts -- to express a distaste for reading long math-heavy posts. I personally think the details are helpful, but only to a point. When posts are excessively detailed (and I am as guilty of this as anyone), I think that some people will skim them instead of reading the details. And if we seem to be covering the same ground that's been gone over already, there's a good chance that any NEW information you've provided will be missed.

That being said, I would like to propose the following decision-tree structure for determining the best three optimal town actions (3a, 3b, and 3c) on Day 3, where T is the number of scum players killed on D2/N2, N is the total number of players remaining, etc. I think that the math speaks for itself, but please let me know if you need me to explain it, so the rest of us may mock you for your feeble brainpower.

http://usera.imagecave.com/thinbluemime ... -07-03.png

Mod Note: Picture changed to link

</joke>

[Gemelli]

Gah.

Mod,

feel free to replace that embedded picture with a linked URL. I did not mean to break the thread width there.

[Gemelli]

I'm just back from a 3-day weekend, folks. I had a feeling there would be 1+ pages to read when I returned, and lo and behold

First things first: breeeeeathe in. Breeeeeathe out. Repeat x10.

Everyone calmed down now? Good!

It may not be full blown BEST FOR TOWN, but it is a GOOD FOR ME in the end.

This sets off red flags for me. Pro-town players should be willing to sacrifice themselves if doing so advances the town's win condition. Granted, with three town players down, ANY town death is a bad thing, but I still see your tactics as motivated by self-interest.

So you think I am mafia? With who?

You, Orig, and either Shaft.ed or dybeck. still deciding on the third...

I find it highly unlikely that Vollkan and Dybeck are in cahoots, considering the amount of time that they've spent at each other's throats this game. If they are aligned, they have been going to an unusual -- bordering on counter-productive -- amount of effort to conceal that fact.

Personally, I don't buy the scumShaft.ed scenario, either. From what I've been able to find, your primary argument against him seems to be that Vollkan considers him likely pro-town. That's hardly a good argument; FWIW I also consider him likely pro-town. My observation is based on his play, his refusal to accept anyone's statements as necessarily true, and his persistence in questioning what he perceives as flaws in others' arguments. He posts frequently, and his posts are largely free of hyperbole and fallacious reasoning. Anything's possible in Mafia, but I just do not see how someone can be that high on your suspicion list just because they are supported by your primary suspect.

I've already made my suspicions vs. orig (strong) and vollkan (moderate) known in previous posts. I do not think either of them makes sense as a lynch candidate today; there are at least three players I find more suspicious than vollkan as of today.

Oman had been playing very shitty in my opinion. I have no idea what the hell he might have said. For all you know I could be the Doc and there might have been a false claim day two that Oman spoke up about. For all I know he may have let something slip about being a vanilla towny in a post that was overlooked. He may have even claimed to be the Vig at some point. I didn't mean to say he might have lied about his role, I meant to imply I didn't know if he had claimed yet, and if he didn't I don't want to claim it either. So I tried to be as vague as possible.

This bugs me on several levels. First, you've just finished a reread of Oman's post history in response to my questions. Are you saying that you

don't know

what he's posted in this game? As the only person who is 100% certain of your role, I would expect that any "tells" Oman might have made hinting at that role would be most obvious to you. And you should know that there was no reaction to any Oman role hints in the thread; we almost certainly would have been all over any such hints like white on rice. So I don't buy that you wanted to stay vague because you didn't know if your real role had already been breadcrumbed or not. What I find *more* feasible is that you don't know if Oman had already left a breadcrumb for a FALSE ROLE CLAIM.

As other have pointed out, by the time you posted, practically all of the votes against you had melted away. The only "pressure" you had was a request (calmly and politely worded, I thought) to go back and look at the case I'd crafted against Oman before you joined, and to comment on anything you saw that might have explained his previous actions. I don't think you needed to hint OR claim in response. So I think that the current focus on you makes sense, and is not in itself scummy.

As far as the "claim" goes, I stand by my earlier comment that what Korlash did initially was hinting, not claiming. But his later posts confirm that he DID intend to hint strongly at vanilla.

For all intents and purposes, I believe that a "strong hint" at a role has the same effect as an outright claim.

If there is some strategic difference between the two, in terms of how they affect the game differently, please let me know about it. I'm new

As such, I do not think that shaft.ed and vollkan are out of bounds for their suspicions on you. The main point you seem to be making is that (A) you did not actually claim vanilla, but only hinted strongly at it, and (B) vollkan and shaft.ed are twisting your words to state that you did actually claim. THIS IS SEMANTICS. IT DOES NOT MATTER. I think (hope) that all three of you will at least agree that Korlash did strongly hint at a vanilla role. Let's focus the discussion on how that information affects the game, NOT on the specific words that were used. OK?

I think shaft.ed summed up the point well:

He was purposefully claiming vanilla, but he has subsequently obfuscated his position to the point where it basically means nothing. In doing so he has demonstrated he really really doesn't want to die, and the town comes in second.

So, when I "hint," or even 'semi-claim" if you want, at any role (Mafia, vanilla, power role) the mafia can in no way know what I am talking about. So, when a person or persons push me up against the wall saying my claim hurt the town, it made me feel like those people were trying to either get me to admit I had a role, or to further admit I was vanilla. If the mafia knew either of these then of course your arguments made sense. If they were sure I was vanilla they would know who to hit for a cop/doc likeliness. So I found it scummy you guys kept pushing my "claim" no matter how many times I tried to defend myself/ say I did not claim. Thus I called it role fishing earlier and just recently said you were trying to weed me out. Whether or not this was your intention you cannot deny that the more we talked about it the more likelihood that I actually claimed and thus gave the mafia info. As of right now I am still pretty much an unknown and thus still a gamble for a NK. Could be good, could be bad. keep pushing and I know it will be bad.

This is a somewhat valid argument; I did feel (and commented) that vollkan's questions felt somewhat like rolefishing. He responded to my points, and we moved on.

What bothers me about this post, though, is that you seem unwilling to discuss vollkan/shaft.ed's basic premise, which is that

a premature vanilla hint or claim is bad for the town

. I happen to agree with that perspective, but I do not claim that my opinion is inherently pro-town or scummy.

If you re-read the posts from Day 1, you'll see that the player I replaced (Dr. Blackstrike) got involved in very similar discussions to what you're experiencing now. In discussing his role, the only thing he did was to draw suspicion to himself (and by extension, to me). Yes, he was still "technically an unknown" for the scum at that point, and a possible power role. But he made himself so suspicious that even if he WAS a power role, the scum knew that he was also a likely lynch candidate.

In short: if I choose to take your claim/hint as valid, I can understand your frustration at being attacked. But I think you are being overly defensive in calling vollkan and shaft.ed scummy for pointing out flaws in your reasoning. Remember, you were already in something of a hole when you replaced in: by your own admission, Oman's play looked scummy. Isn't it reasonable for people to be suspicious of you?

Korlash himself contradicts this because he himself is unconvinced as to whether Orig is vig or mafia.

This was the only quote on Korlash's list that I think merits attention. Vollkan, whether there are good reasons for him to feel one way or the other is beside the point. In his post, he indicated that he did have a strong opinion, but does not want to share it at this time. I didn't see anything in his posts that indicates a waffling position. Remember, not everyone in the game thinks the same way as you. It's not reasonable to state someone's intentions based on how YOU would think about a situation.

The other quotes from the list seem to boil down to semantics or subjective interpretation, and are not "true" or "false" in any meaningful way. I want the last 30 minutes of my life back

I find it odd Originality and Elias and AllyG and Lucienne and Gemelli are not actively participating in this. So it is not totally my fault no "scum hunting" is being done aside from what I am doing.

I can't speak for anyone else, but I have limited access on weekends (see my sig). The fact that this weekend ran three days was unplanned. Sorry about that.

Definitely wil post tomorrow.

Please do. We are less than 10 days away from a deadline. We need all the input we can get at this point.

[Gemelli]

I read it. Your explanation seemed OK, though brief.

And please, let's not keep the semantics claim/hint debate going any more. It's played out.

[Gemelli]

Whew, what a difference a page makes

Regarding Dybeck's cop claim, I had an inkling that he might hold this role way back in post 686.

If you look at Dybeck's D2 posts, you see a few things that jump out:

* In post 433, he states that "the reason originality claimed vig is because he knows he'd be counterclaimed if he claimed cop."

* He also has quite a few posts where he describes his origScum conviction as "100% certain." I didn't see any rationale for someone making such statements unless they have received special information.

I think we can all agree that posting "100%"-type comments without providing ironclad evidence to back them up looks scummy. But doing a reread of Dybeck's D2 content does (at least at first glance) seem that he is posting consistently with his claimed role and N1 information. I'm not sure how I would post if I had special information about a player that I couldn't share without giving away my power role, but I can reconcile Dybeck's posts with that perspective.

This is a very long way of saying that I don't see the claim as being a "panicked" reaction; the claim is either true or has been breadcrumbed extensively.

OK. So we have three power-role claims to look at:

Claims

Originality: claimed Vig
AlyG: claimed Tracker
Dybeck: claimed Cop

OK, let's do some scenario analysis.

Occam's Razor suggests that Dybeck's and Orginality's claims are mutually exclusive, barring the possibility of a Paranoid Cop role.

Tracker and Cop seem like roles that could potentially coexist in a game with an SK, but lacking experience with the game, it's hard for me to comment on how likely this is.

For reference purposes, originality first makes his vig claim in post 428. I would recommend that all of you reread a few pages starting with that claim post. I'm in the middle of a re-read, keeping our latest claim info in mind, and it's really turning some of my preconceptions upside down. Reading some of our players' earlier posts, in light of their current positions, has been eye-opening.

My current hypothesis is that originality is, in fact, the SK. I think that the odds of him being scum are certainly higher in light of this new information than they were before.

In any case, for me the matter comes down to a simple decision: do we believe originality, or do we believe dybeck? Given dybeck's breadcrumbing, and originality's scummy play at the very start of D2, I am more inclined to believe dybeck at this point. I think that ONE of them is the right play today, for sure, and am leaning strongly towards originality at this point.

originality: I have never heard of a miller vig. I would call that situation "wildly unlikely."

shaft.ed: I'm not familiar with the term "AnbodypartoS" ... can you explain it?

More later; must take care of the day job.

[Gemelli]

Yes, the shaft.ed-SK accusation was weird. Although he backed off on the 100% certain thing (what he actually said was that he'd eat his hat if shaft.ed wasn't the SK) on that point over time. From what I've read today, the only point on which he's maintained the 100% certain angle has been your guilt.

You didn't comment on the breadcrumbing, and the lack thereof on your part. Your argument seems to boil down to "dybeck is scummy, therefore his claim is false and mine is true."

I would also like to hear an answer to shaft.ed's question:

@dybeck, I find your claim to be weak and self serving. Why did you not start out the day against orig and only bring him up when AlyG mentioned his clearly verified investigation results? Seriously, you spent the first RL week of this day without even uttering the word originality. I'd like an explanation of this.

But remember, we have to compare this to originality's posts 344 and 345 at the start of D2, which he used to cast suspicion on AlyG. I know that orig posted a rationale for doing so, but I thought (and still think) it looked fishy. We'll have to hear from dybeck, and each of us will decide whose argument they are more inclined to believe.

[Gemelli]

Okay, now it's time for me to open the floodgates and go on the rabid offensive:

My current hypothesis is that originality is, in fact, the SK. I think that the odds of him being scum are certainly higher in light of this new information than they were before.

In any case, for me the matter comes down to a simple decision: do we believe originality, or do we believe dybeck? Given dybeck's breadcrumbing, and originality's scummy play at the very start of D2, I am more inclined to believe dybeck at this point.

I think that ONE of them is the right play today, for sure, and am leaning strongly towards originality at this point

Gemelli thinks Orig is the SK. Fine, so do I. BUT, Gemelli also favours lynching Originality. In fact, he sees the fact that we lynch either of them as near axiomatic.

Untrue. I think that one of them is almost certainly scum, as you seem to have stated earlier. I suspect other players to varying degrees, but originality has moved far and away into the lead IMHO. Barring further evidence, he will be my vote for today.

At the risk of repeating myself, I did in fact see Dybeck's behavior for much of D2 as scummy. But we now have strong evidence in place that at least ONE of the two players, orig and dybeck, is scum. I feel that the evidence in place (as I documented in my previous post) suggests that orig is the SK, and that dybeck is in fact the cop. I do not expect that my opinions imply any "axiomatic" action by the town. It is absolutely possible that I have fallen victim to a dybeck snow job. But until I have been convinced that I am wrong, that is where I stand on the game.

Lynching SKOrig places us in LYLO. For someone who has been so cautious all the way through things, this is a major slip.

At the risk of sounding dense, please explain to me why lynching a strongly-suspected SK would be a bad thing.

Much of my support for the "don't lynch orig" strategy hinged on the possibility of his being mafia. With that possibility looking increasingly unlikely, I am less convinced that we should leave him alive.

My primary reasoning here is that if we do manage to knock off the SK today, we will have one less anti-town NK to deal with. Much of the analysis done to date seems to assume that the mafia will automatically choose to kill the SK tonight. But what happens if they don't?

Why wouldn't they, I can hear you ask. The answer:

because there is only one SK for them to deal with, and because the identities of the mafia players are still uncertain.

Let's say we are starting at 5:3:1, and we choose to leave the SK alive today. We lynch another player, dropping us to 4:3:1 or 5:2:1.

If the mafia choose to target a town player, we then drop to 3:3:1 or 4:2:1.

Then we need to account for the SK's action:
- No kill: 3:3:1 or 4:2:1
- Kill mafia: 3:2:1 or 4:1:1
- Kill town: 2:3:1 or 3:2:1

Of those six scenarios, the only one that is NOT favorable for the mafia (or at least equitable) is if we manage to lynch a mafioso today, AND the SK manages to NK one. Given the amount of uncertainty among the player base as to who the three mafia members could be, how likely do you think that scenario is?

Yes, I fully acknowledge that lynching the SK would put us into 4:3 LYLO and down a power role. But looking at the six possibilities above, there is only a 1/6 chance of escaping LYLO if we DON'T lynch the SK. And there is a further 1/3 chance of facing a town loss scenario. To echo a comment that Oman made earlier in the game, I think it would be a mistake to rely on another faction (the SK) to help advance the town's win condition.

In short, I think that lynching the SK is in fact a reasonable play for the town,

unless strong evidence surfaces that a different player is in fact mafia

. I would rather lynch a strongly-suspected SK than an iffy-suspected mafia, because the impact of a mislynch today could be disastrous.

Gemellish, she gives no thought to the consequences of lynching Orig but pushes his lynch. She is chronically lurking and her only content is plainly anti-town.

I do not honestly believe that you think that my posts are made recklessly or without considering the potential impact on the town. The fact that you're suddenly starting to paint that picture is setting off all sorts of alarms.

And honestly, you are starting to overreach. "Plainly anti-town?" What, specifically, has been anti-town about the content (not frequency) of her posts? The fact that she's leaning towards lynching the player that you've just said you think is probably the SK? I'm not saying that I think that Lucienne is aligned one way or the other, but this post struck me as a random potshot.

The bottom line for me is that

I believe the mafia has a potential interest in keeping SK-orig alive today

. Please convince me otherwise if this is just plain wrong. This is an important decision for the town, and I do not want to brush off my concerns by simply saying "we talked about it already so it's obviously a bad play."

[Gemelli]

If it wasn't clear, the problem is that you want the SK lynched or dybeck. Lynching SKOrig makes it LYLO. I have a serious problem with that.

I understand that perspective. My reply is that a mislynch also leaves us in LYLO. And as you've just demonstrated with your confident vote on Luc yesterday, followed by an unvote today, the town's level of confidence in a consensus mafia target is currently quite low.

Gemelli, your number analysis is correct, but faulty because it fails to look at the motivation of the SK being his own survival and win:

As you yourself mentioned days ago, SKorig has already effectively lost. I struggle to think of a scenario where he can eke out a victory regardless of what he does tonight. So I think it is a big, big mistake for us to make any assumptions on how he will act. He is in my opinion a huge wild card that can play spoiler for either side as he sees fit.

I am not excited about sending us to LYLO. I would be a lot LESS excited about having us in LYLO and facing two NKs on N3. Please, let's think this through beyond the immediate N2/D3 impact -- we will eventually have to lynch the SK in order to win. Every night he lives, we risk reducing the town's plurality advantage.

Lynching SKOrig is as good as a mislynch. I do not want to mislynch, therefore I do not want to lynch SKOrig.

I disagree. A mislynch leaves us at LYLO with two scum factions remaining in the game, one of which is a complete random factor. An SK lynch is LYLO, but it reduces the random factor considerably.

I will say this again, since you seem to have missed it the first time:

if I thought we had a strong lead on a mafia player at this time, I would agree that lynching that player makes more sense. But IMHO we don't.

Well, the bit you quoted was on Lucienne.

And used the term "Gemellish," which is wat I reacted to.

Why does my behaviour raise alarm bells? I don't see how it is suspicious that I become very concerned when people advocate things which I know to be patently anti-town.

If you had stated it like that, I would have no problem with it. The alarm bells come from what I perceive as a marked increase in your use of strong, dramatic terminology in making your arguments. You could have said "I don't think that Lucienne has put a lot of thought into her argument, and that seems scummy." Instead, you chose to phrase it definitively: "Gemellish, she gives no thought to the consequences of lynching Orig but pushes his lynch. She is chronically lurking and her only content is plainly anti-town."

The other thing raising flags for me is that you have been increasingly making posts that you retract shortly afterwards. You stated yesterday (again, using definitive terms) that Luc's posts are plainly anti-town. Today, you withdraw that statement and your vote. THAT is behavior that strikes me as anti-town. We are close to a deadline, and consensus is needed. Taking what seem to me to be scattergun, poorly-founded potshots like this does NOTHING to help the town; it diminishes our focus and distracts from other topics of discussion.

Not true, at all.

If we mislynch today, Orig's best move is not to NK. That doesn't help the scum.

Again, I think this whole line of reasoning assumes too much, as I posted above.

Orig is never of any help to mafia, and is simply an alternate townie to them in the event of a mislynch. The difference with Orig is that he makes it a draw in a 1:1 situation, whereas townie makes it a mafia win. Thus, the mafia actually want to eliminate Orig.

Eventually they do. But orig is IMHO more of a threat to the town at this point than to the mafia. He wants to eliminate mafia, but he has just as little idea of who they might be as the town. Every NK he makes, assuming random targets, is more likely to hit town.

Therefore, the corollary of going after mafia today, is that we must try and be as global with our view of things as possible.

On that point, we agree. What I am looking for is a player that I feel is ~70% likely to be mafia. If we don't have strong consensus on such a player by deadline, I feel that lynching orig is FAR safer than a coin-flip lynch.

[Gemelli]

Yes, but at least by lynching elsewhere, we run a good chance of getting into a better situation.

I'm still not convinced that our chances are markedly better by taking our chances with a mislynch, but it is late, I am tired, and I am new. If there is general agreement -- meaning a quorum of players aside from vollkan and originality who agree that lynching originality is a bad play, bearing in mind what the two of us have posted -- then I will drop the issue. I would greatly appreciate it if the rest of you could post your opinion on this:

Is lynching Originality actually a bad play for today?

I am on the verge of dropping the matter altogether.

I don't see how it is anti-town. She posts something markedly anti-town. I vote her. Then I go back and toothcomb things and decide she is not vote-worthy. There is nothing harmful in that.

No no no. You did not post that she posted "something" that was anti-town. You posted "her only content is plainly anti-town." Exactly the type of charged, overstated language that has me suspecting you at this point. If you would stick to specifics, rather than making sweeping statements of opinion as if they were facts, you and I would not be having this conversation. I do not take issue with your arguments and opinions: I take issue with how you have been expressing them. Okay?

Right then. dybeck's post makes no sense to me. Therefore, I invoke the scenario of dybeck being mafia. Dybeck has been crusading against shaft.ed and myself and Orig. Dybeck has links to Gemelli.

I think the mafia in that situation are most likely- dybeck/Gemelli/Elias or dybeck/Gemelli/Korlash

And for some reason, the person who you voted for most recently is left off your list completely. Riiiiight. Meanwhile, you find a more likely scenario is that I am aligned with Korlash, despite me spending nearly the entire game attacking the posts of his predecessor? I can understand you lumping me and dybeck together, but come on.

I want to throw out a question:- Who here believes dybeck is the cop? A simple yes or no will suffice.

I do. If I have been snowed by Dybeck, I will surely pay for it. But the fact of the matter is that I suspected he might have this role weeks ago, based on his posts, and he has claimed it. I do not agree with much of what he's posted, and I will be the first to agree that his posts have been confrontational and single-minded. But I find the content (if not the tone) of his posts consistent with what I'd expect from a cop who had gotten a guilty result.

I believe that dybeck is either mafia or cop. I am currently leaning 60% cop, 40% mafia.

FWIW, I currently believe that the mafiia are three of the following players:

Lucienne
Elias
Korlash
Dybeck
Vollkan

I'm going to try to get in some PBPAs of those players this week. Wish me luck as I prepare for Vollkan's

[Gemelli]

OK, folks. I promised PBPA, and a PBPA you shall have. Starting with Vollkan. Yes, I decided to get the major pain out of the way first. Thank gawd for Advil!

Please keep in mind that this summary is NOT intended to be a complete record of all of Vollkan's posts. I've tried to summarize major themes, and to record his stance throughout the game on some major issues. But there was a ton of content to sort through, and I did the best I could with the time that was available to me.

Anyway, I'll post the complete PBPA after I summarize some of the key themes I noticed. Apologies once again for what will be a post that tests the character limits of phpBB. (And I've seen at least 6 posts made since I started writing this up; I have not read those and will comment on them tomorrow.)

Key themes from Vollkan review:

#1: Vollkan has been going after Dybeck like he was made of ham through all of D2.

This is not in itself surprising given Dybeck's attitude. What is notable after a complete reread is that the grounds for his suspicion have shifted dramatically, not just from the start of D2 to now, but in some cases from post to post. Examples: in posts 439 and 497, he suspects Dybeck of being mafia. In 544, he starts suspecting that Dybeck is the SK. In 598, he describes Dybeck as "quite pro-town." But just a few posts later, in 608, he's back to arguing that Dybeck is probably mafia, a line he continues until 1193, when he's back to accusing Dybeck of being the SK. In 1208, he states that he believes Dybeck's cop claim, that his claim doesn't make sense as a mafioso, but that SK is likely. In 1226 he's back to accusing Dybeck of being mafia.

Rarely do we see an acknowledgement that the line of attack is changing from Vollkan. He seems to have made up his mind very early in the game that Dybeck is scum, and has simply been trying to figure out a way to craft a resonating argument to support that premise.

Review post 974, in which Vollkan claims that Dybeck is scummy for dropping his case against Originality, despite being "100% convinced" of orig's scumminess. Then look at posts 1008 -- where Vollkan posts that Dybeck had "no need" to abandon the lynch-originality theme, and that he finds that change in heart suspicious -- and 1214, in which Vollkan says that Dybeck would have been LESS suspicious if he had abandoned the case against originality earlier. Vollkan has created a damned-if-you-do, damned-if-you-don't situation; no matter what course of action Dybeck chooses here, Vollkan will attack him for it. You could draw a conclusion from this that Vollkan has made up his mind that Dybeck should be lynched, and is opportunistically using whatever facts happen to be at hand to advance that agenda.

#2: Vollkan sticks to his guns, but only until shaft.ed disagrees.

Vollkan is a tenacious debator, and almost never abandons an argument. Except, of course, when shaft.ed posts ANYTHING in disagreement, after which Vollkan is highly likely to change his mind.

Post 462, Vollkan suggests that AlyG should track originality. 491, shaft.ed says that he doesn't want the town to guide AlyG in any way. 492, vollkan reverses his earlier suggestion and agrees with shaft.ed.

Post 512, Vollkan tells Originality that he should kill, but be careful. 515, shaft.ed posts that he'd prefer a no kill. 517, Vollkan says "You're right. Don't kill tonight Orig."

Post 598, Vollkan says that "CarrotCake was clearly using very good logic and posting to a great extent. Thus, she was a threat to the scum. By NKing her, there is the added advantage of throwing suspicion onto AlyG. It is VERY plausible that scum would NK carrot." Post 617, shaft.ed posts a summary of CC's posts, showing that she was hardly a hugely obvious townie. Post 638, Vollkan says that he thought that CC wasn't really townie all along, but didn't want to say anything in order to get more info on the players supporting originality's lynch.

Post 680, Vollkan says that "we haven't instructed Orig not to kill. Orig is to do as Orig sees fit, but with the utmost caution." And to AlyG: "Doc should probably protect either you or Orig, let me think on that one." 682-683, shaft.ed states his preference for giving orig a consensus list to work with rather than a blank slate, and FoS's vollkan for suggesting doc protection for orig. 705, Vollkan responds to that with "I said I was not convinced and I needed to think. I didn't mean that I considered Orig an equal option to AlyG at all. I just meant that I was going to look at both options, rather than immediately ruling it out without doing a proper analysis. I can't think of any reason to protect Orig, after all I've been pushing hard on not lynching Orig for the crossfire thing as well."

751-755: Vollkan states that "I would not support a blanket limiting of Orig to the consensus." 778, shaft.ed states his preference from having orig work off a list, and indicates that he could see dybeck's posts reflecting the perspective of an angry townie. 779, Vollkan agrees to this, agrees that shaft.ed's dybeck-townie suspicions are valid, and states that "Oman looks worse" at this point.

You get the idea. See the detailed PBPA for a few other instances of this behavior.

#3: Vollkan claiming to have "proved" something is sometimes (but not always) smoke and mirrors.

In post 675, Vollkan claims to have "refuted" Dybeck's suspicion that Originality lied in his initial role claim. As we now know, Vollkan is now leading the "orig is 100% scum and is most likely the SK" train, despite apparently having proved that this wasn't possible many pages ago.

Vollkan first advocates the "anyone who wants to lynch originality today is probably scum" theory in post 487. This despite the fact that he had voted for an orig lynch just 20 posts or so ago in post 462. This is a dramatic reversal of opinion. At first, Vollkan has argued that an Orig lynch is obviously bad because there is such a strong chance that orig is a vig. In post 457, he argues that originality is almost definitely NOT the SK, and it's in the town's best interest to lynch the SK today. Now, of course, he is arguing that originality is almost definitely CONFIRMED as the SK today, and that the best play for the town is to lynch someone who is NOT the SK.

In post 779, vollkan claims to have "proved" that dybeck's argument that originality is scum is wrong.

Are you seeing the trend here? I am not by any means saying that when vollkan posts a fact, the reverse must be true. But when Vollkan tells me that he has proved something, you'll have to excuse me wanting to test the waters for myself before diving in. And I really, really don't like his use of the "if you don't agree with what I have claimed to prove, you are by definition scummy" tactic through much of D2.

#4: Vollkan has maintained a constant support for originality until very recently, but has offered shifting explanations of orig's role and shifting reasons for not lynching him.

Like his attacks on dybeck, Vollkan's support of originality has been founded on a wildly shifting set of assumptions. He paints originality as most likely mafia through post 455. 457, he states that CarrotCake makes no sense for an SK kill. By post 487, Vollkan has come all the way around to believing originality's claim to be genuine. In 501, Vollkan is so certain that orig can't be the SK, he votes Oman for even suggesting it. He stays on the vigOrig theme through post 841, with occasional posts here and there continuing his rationale for why Orig can't be the SK; in one analysis of town scenarios in post 573, he doesn't even include the analysis of that situation.

In post 862, Vollkan posts that "Something dybeck has been saying throughout this game is that I am acting too convinced of Orig being pro-town. I want to be clear that Orig is acting scummy and I do think there is quite a good chance of him being scum. The problem is that he has claimed vig." He goes on to state that if orig is scum, he is most likely mafia, and that dybeck is the SK.

In post 999, Vollkan indicates that his post 993 offers "unrebutted evidence" demonstrating why Originality can't be scum. He then goes on to state that he is 65% likely that originality is scum. Heh.

In post 1011, Vollkan responds to more recent originality posts by raising his suspicion of originality to 75% scum, and then 100% scum. Even at this point, he maintains that dybeck is most likely also scum (if not aligned with orig). By 1268, Vollkan has turned the corner and claims that he has already established that he agrees that orig is the SK.

============================

My analysis of this reading:

* Much of Vollkan's arguments against Dybeck, when held up to close analysis, do not hold water. In post 1025, Vollkan himself claims that of the evidence vs Dybeck to date, "There are a number of minor tells in there, but collectively and when analysed by someone other than myself (multiple scrutiny = very important) it is not decisive." Since then, he has found new reasons to suspect Dybeck. Some of those reasons may be perfectly valid, but I find the degree of antagonism being levelled through the whole game, coming from such a wide variety of directions, to be suspect. Do minis ever have lyncher/lynchee roles?

* Vollkan has from time to time relied on fallacies and incomplete reasoning to present strongly-worded arguments. Meta analysis suggests that Vollkan does not exhibit those behaviors when playing as town. This is a significant scum tell to me, though not definitive.

* Based on the relationships I've been able to track here, if Vollkan *does* come up scum, I would consider his most likely scumbuddies to be Lucienne and Korlash.

* If Dybeck turns up town -- and it seems fairly likely that we will know his alignment as of tomorrow morning -- Vollkan will move to the #1 spot on my suspect list. One scenario that I have been considering with varying degrees of confidence is that mafVollkan picked up on Dybeck's cop tells early on D2, and that this is the real reason for him promoting a Dybeck lynch so heavily.

* If Dybeck turns up scum, I will almost certainly be the next town lynch. Again, I recognize this fact, but feel that if I don't speak honestly out of fear for myself, I will be doing the town a disservice.

* It seems obvious that Dybeck and Vollkan are not aligned with each other as scum. You could make an argument that Vollkan and Originality could be aligned with each other as scum, due to Vollkan's consistent drumming that lynching orig is bad for town, but this seems unlikely unless orig has made some truly boneheaded moves as mafia.

* I am still mostly certain that shaft.ed is town. But Vollkan's repeated about-faces in response to shaft.ed posts have forced me to think hard about that perspective. If Vollkan comes up scum, there is a clear tie to shaft.ed that much be explored.

* Overall, this re-read has brought up quite a bit of behavior that I find suspicious, and this has me thinking VERY hard at this point about Vollkan as possible mafia. In fact, the more I think about it, the more likely I think this scenario is.

So:

HoS: Vollkan

I am curious to hear your (and others') response to this summary, as well as the more detailed PBPA itself. At this point, you have firmly entered my top-3 suspect list.

[Gemelli]

Detailed PBPA of Vollkan, stream of consciousness style (for reference):

349: Casts a huge net of suspicion across the town. Notes that Oman giving AlyG townie brownies is "kind of like giving Hitler the Nobel Peace Prize." Sums up that after his D1 read:

Elias_the_thief: Has done nothing to arouse my suspicion, but I may do a reread on him just to be sure.
Oman: Started off well but became increasingly contrived and is now defending AlyG. From the above, I gave HoS: Oman
AlyG: Scum. Plain and simple. I have already voted but I will put it down here again for mod?s convenience and because I want to vote him again. Vote: AlyG
Dr. Blackstrike: Newbish. I don't think is scum.
Lucienne: Not particularly notable but a potential scumbuddy with AlyG based on earlier stuff.
originality: On one hand, AlyG has been rabidly against Orig. On the other, Orig's latest play is defending himself and AlyG. FoS: originality
shaft.ed: Town.
dybeck: Similar to Elias.

353: Continues to press AlyG. Defends AlyG charge that Lucienne was lurking ("she wasn't, FTR"). Notable quote:

Prodding for opinions is something I consider a scumtell. By all means, say "X is not contributing" but specifically asking "What do you think of A, B and C?" looks like you are trying to get a particular response.

363-4: Questions dybeck about why he accused shaft.ed of being the SK.

374: Responds to shaft.ed's post suggesting that vollkan's accusation of AlyG is over the top. Explains why he thinks Dr. BS is newbish, not scummy.

382: Asks Oman why he thinks AlyG is more suspicious than Dybeck.

392: Explains that he thinks that Dybeck's "we should not kill the SK" strategy is only valid if we know the SK's identity.

394:

Thus, since I am sure a vig would not kill Carrot and find no reason for a vig to kill Spurg I can draw but one conclusion:
People we have a SK.

398-399: Numbers analyses. Spends equal time assessing whether we are at 6:2:1 or 5:3:1. Draws this conclusion:

Taking the 5:3:1 scenario,
If we lynch the SK today, then D3 opens at 4:3. LYLO.
If we lynch the scum today, then D3 opens at 3:2:1 in wcs. This is outcome (A) in my previous post. It can go any number of ways.
If we mislynch today, then D3 opens at 2:3:1 in wcs. Outcome (B) from above.

Uses this post to argue that it doesn't really matter whether we go after the SK or mafia today.

403: Responds to AlyG claim by unvoting.

408: Notes that tracker is actually a fairly safe claim for scum. Indicates that he suspects orig, but suspects AlyG more at this point.

413: Indicates that though he suspects AlyG, feels he should not vote for him as he is a claimed power role.

415: Indicates that if AlyG dies, orig should roleclaim before anything happens. FoS's dybeck for his willingness to vote originality so quickly.

439: Reacts to originality's vig claim. Lists four scenarios; states that both scenarios where orig=vig are unlikely. States that "Dybeck's willingness to follow AlyG is very smelly (along with the SK-shaft.ed stuff from just before)." Lists his two main options as either lynching AlyG, or looking elsewhere, and places a Dybeck vote.

446: Defends vigOrig as "plausible" if not likely. Indicates that if scum, Orig is likely to be killed by the rival scum faction tonight. Assesses contradictions in dybeck posts 286-404, in which dybeck switches from "my gut says [originality is] not scum" to "It's not like we didn't think he was scum yesterday" with no intervening posts mentioning orig.

448-449: Suggests bizarre (and ultimately proved ineffective) plan to confirm AlyG's alignment. "My feeling at the moment is that Dybeck is our SK and that AlyG is scum with Orig."

453: Continued numerical analysis with Oman. Again gives equal weight to the possibility of 5:3:1 or 6:2. Notable quote:

As we can see, our situation is VERY grim if there is a mafia trio. It means inescapable LYLO for us. Things are much better if it is a duo.

455: Responds to Oman's suggestion that 5:3:1 is more likely by saying "In Mini 467 ( a game I was in), there were 2 mafia, SK and no vig. I don't know whether 3 mafia and 1 SK is more likely, but 2 is a possiblity nonetheless." Also says "There is no logical reason for the SK to kill Carrot. As such, I think it more likely that Orig is mafia than SK."

457: Continued disc with Oman. "In short, our best bet is to lynch the SK. I feel confident AlyG is not the SK, her actions are either mafia or tracker." Rebuffs Oman suggestion that CarrotCake makes sense as an SK kill.

460:

If we lynch vig-Orig, D3 opens at wcs 4:3 LYLO.
If we lynch SK-Orig D3 opens at wcs 4:3 LYLO.
If we lynch maf-Orig D3 opens at wcs 3:2:1. (yuck)

If mislynch someone who is not Orig and Orig is SK, D3 wcs is 2:3:1 (yuck)
If mislynch someone who is not Orig and Orig is maf, D3 wcs is 2:3:1 (basically scum win)
If mislynch someone who is not Orig and Orig is vig, D3 wcs is 3:3 LOSS (if Orig screws up again). If Orig doesn't shoot: 4:3 LYLO. If Orig succeeds: 4:2 LYLO.

If we lynch non-Orig mafia and Orig is SK, D3 wcs is 3:2:1 (yuck)
If we lynch non-Orig mafia and Orig is vig, D3 wcs is 3:2 LYLO (with mis-vig). If no-vig shot then 4:2 LYLO. If successful vig-shot then 3:1 LYLO.
If we lynch non-Orig SK, meaning Orig is maf D3 wcs is: 4:3 LYLO

Good grief...It looks like there are no advantages ANYWHERE without relying on help from maf or SK.

462: Suggests that AlyG should track originality. Votes originality.

463-464, 466, 468, 470, 472: Minor clarifications on analysis post.

474: Unvotes: "If Orig is a vig, the set-up is 6:3. In other words, a scum lynch today and a vig kill tonight can put as at 6:1. This game is well within our grasp. The constant focus on wcs has distorted things."

487: Agrees with shaft.ed that people should be careful with their votes at this point. Responds to Oman's post that "letting a killing role live the night will only lead to pain" by stating that:

It's a gambit, no doubt about that. Let's not forget, though, that Orig could easily have claimed weak doctor or something if he was the SK/mafia and did not want to expose himself to NK risk. The fact that has has claimed vig, a role likely to get NKed, points to him being genuine.

As such, I think our situation is 6:3 more likely than one of 6:2:1 or 5:3:1. I really don't think we should be killing Orig today.

Unvotes (despite not having a vote logged). Also states that "Oman and Dybeck have both really been taking similar lines in regards to Orig, however Oman did vote Dybeck in #440. I am now sure that this stance is anti-town, but I myself held it just yesterday until I realised how stupid it is. I have my eye on them, particularly Dybeck given all the previous stuff."

Note: This is the first place where vollkan posts his "anyone who wants to lynch originality is anti-town" premise, despite he himself holding that opinion just a few posts ago.

492: Echoes shaft.ed that we should not guide AlyG's actions tonight. Replies to Lucienne's notice that she will be LA due to family emergency by saying "And I don't want Lucienne replaced."

494: Defends Originality's rationale for NK'ing carrotcake to Dybeck, stating that "it basically looks like an OMGUS kill."

496-497: Replies to Oman's post (claiming that he is convinced that orig is an SK) by stating that while there are good arguments for orig being the SK, "if he is the vig, we are really hurting ourselves by lynching him." Adds this post:

However, there is one fact which kind of defeats the whole SK theory: Orig claimed VIG.

If Orig is SK, why the hell would he claim the one pro-town role which we can be almost certain that the mafia will prioritise over all others.

I know that if I were a SK in Orig's position, I would have claimed weak doc or RB or something, NOT Vig.

Hence, my instinct is telling me that the people pushing Orig's lynch are mafia trying to score a vig or SK lynch.

501: Votes Oman, and FoS's dybeck, for arguing that Originality is the SK. "The fact that he is now trying to prove that Orig is the SK, in light of everything I have been saying suggests very strongly that he has a motivation to get rid of Orig."

504: Replies to Oman's comment that "Wait, Vollkan was voting for originality, and even posted points on why he was an SK and not a vig and now you want to let him live?" by saying "now you are telling lies about what I said." Goes on to demonstrate that Oman's comment was not a lie at all, oddly.

506-508: Replies to Dybeck's FoS of vollkan by stating that "I think my case for Orig being vig is a hell of a lot more convincing than your blind support for a lynch or Oman's feeble arguments." and "I have just come to the conclusion that Orig is very likely not a SK. I guess this leaves us with Orig being vig or being mafia." Uses shaft.ed's analysis to support his case that originality is a vig. Further suggests that it is unlikely that originality would be mafia given the Vig claim. Votes for Dybeck again.

512: Tells originality that "you should kill...just be careful"

517: Replies to a shaft.ed FoS (stating that Vollkan's rapid voting, despite having agreed that quick votes are a bad idea, is suspicious) by stating that he will unvote if the wagon goes higher. Also turns a 180 at shaft.ed's prompting: "You're right. Don't kill tonight Orig."

523, 526: Replies to shaft.ed's comment that having dybeck at L-2 is not a good idea. Gives Oman some leeway for changing his mind. Posts suspicion of AlyG based on his prodding people to talk while not contributing content himself, and discusses the possibility of an AlyG/orig pairing. Discusses the possibility of lynching AlyG in order to confirm Originality's role, but still favors a Dybeck lynch.

534: Replies to orginality's responses.

536, 538: Notes that AlyG and Originality seem keen on getting role info from Dr BS.

544: Unvotes, but states that his vote is still on dybeck (??). Is again influenced by a shaft.ed post. Indicates that his "lynch AlyG" suggestion was a trap. States that "The fact that Orig is supporting Dybeck's lynch is a little perturbing to me. If Dybeck is SK, then his death is going to mean the end of Orig."

549: Lauds shaft.ed for a "brilliant post." Reiterates that "Orig is most likely not a SK" and that "I think it is overall more likely that the claim is genuine than that Orig is mafia."

554, 557, 559: "2 mafia is a real possibility if we have a SK. Otherwise, it is most likely 3." Indicates that he thinks Originality's placement of Oman on the "almost definitely town" list is odd. States that even with a mafia lynch tonight, a misvig puts us into LYLO: "in short, your vigging is dangerous to us."

561: Suggests that Oman is wasting his "lurker" vote on Elias, who has posted a lack of availability.

565: Continues to explain to Originality why a vig on N2 would be a bad idea.

573: "Yes; there seems to be some agreement that he is very much more likely vig than SK and probably more likely vig than mafia (though he may well be mafia)." Gives credence to Lucienne's suggestion that there may be a Dybeck/Elias scum partnership. Posts numeric analyses that omit any possibility of Originality being the SK.

575: Replies to AlyG post. "I don't think we should lynch Orig today. If he is scum, then there is a SK (since I don't think Orig is SK) who would be crazy not to get rid of him. As such, lynching Orig today will only help that scum group. Dybeck is far more sensible a choice."

598: Big post here:

Dybeck:"if you're not going to lynch him, we may as well at least make sure that his kills are working for the good of the town." Vollkan: "It's pretty damn ironic that you are suspicious of him and think he is scum because he killed a very pro-town player, but now you WANT him to kill."

Indicates that Dybeck has actually made a good point: "The only problem here, though, is that all you have proved is that vig is a safe claim for scum. This doesn't prove that he is scum. Actually, given this logic, it kind of debunks the whole argument that Orig is not a SK." Also indicates that an Orig post has helped him realize that vig would be a safe claim for an SK.

"CarrotCake was clearly using very good logic and posting to a great extent. Thus, she was a threat to the scum. By NKing her, there is the added advantage of throwing suspicion onto AlyG.
It is VERY plausible that scum would NK carrot."

I was wrong...Dybeck's latest stuff makes a lot of sense and I now see he has never been stubbornly pushing for Orig's lynch; in fact, Dybeck now appears quite pro-town to me.

Orig looks a lot worse to me right now but, for reasons I gave previously, I don't want him lynched today.

Gemelli looks very pro-town to me, as does shaft.ed.

I am a little concerned with the lurky players: Lucienne and Elias.
As such, I guess my suspicion falls back to the second person who has raised my eyebrows today: Oman.

607: Continues to suspect that orig is not an SK, but in fact a vig or mafia. "This makes me think he is unlikely to be mafia and, so, I am left thinking he is pro-town vig."

608: Switches tacks on Dybeck again: "he may very well be mafia trying to get rid of Orig; same goes for anyone on Orig's wagon." Going back to the "anyone who wants to get rid of Orig is anti-town" premise. Also switches tacks on Orig action: "Secondly, I don't know whether we should be demanding that Orig does not NK. By telling him not to kill, we nullify the threat he presents to the mafia. I think it might be better if we allow Orig to kill, but request that he take much more thought. Thirdly, the matter of lynching Orig. If Orig is lynched, we can be certain that AlyG will be NKed. AlyG's power is very useful."

638: Again agrees with a shaft.ed post. Claims to have noted that CarrotCake wasn't really all that pro-town but that "I wanted to see how things played out given that the anti-Orig lobby was relying on it so crucially."

My view is as follows.
Town
shaft.ed -- 80% sure
AlyG -- claimed
Orig -- claimed
Vollkan

Unreadable
Elias_the_thief
Lucienne
Gemelli (As you say, though, slightly scummy. I think about 55% scummy)

Scummy
Oman -- 60%
dybeck --65%

Votes for Dybeck. Again. Continues to support the premise that Orig is a pro-town vig.

639: Attacks dybeck again for posting that "If we mislynch today, we're down to 8. If mafia and SK both hit town tonight, it's 3 mafia, 2 town and 1 SK and we lose. If mafia hits SK and SK hits town, it's 3 mafia and 3 town and we lose." Vollkan: "The fact you are raising this falsity now as some fearsome spectre just reinforces my suspicion in you. You are doing all you can to push Orig's lynch in spite of the evidence against you."

642: Numbers. Again reiterates that he thinks orig is pro-town.

644:

The threat Orig presents to the mafia is incredible.

To make this as wcs as possible, I shall assume that Orig is SK and that we mislynch and that there are 3 mafia. Town lynch makes it 4:3:1.
Scum NK of town makes it 3:3:1.
Now, Orig could target maf or town. If town = 2:3:1 (mafia wins). If mafia = 3:2:1.
In the 3:2:1 situation, if we lynched mafia it becomes 3:1:1. As such, if Orig NKs the last mafia, they lose. As such, Orig presents the prospect of a loss to the mafia even if we mislynch.

646, 648: States that a 2-person mafia (rather than 3) is plausible, though unbalanced against the mafia, and that a 3-person mafia is more likely.

651: Replies to Oman's comment that "dybeck is starting to look town" by saying that "Dybeck's actions are also entirely consistent with him being a mafia hunting SK-Orig."

653: Prods Oman with a question about whether we should lynch originality.

656, 658: Argues against the "no kill" limitation on originality.

662: Lends credence to originality's explanation for why he killed CarrotCake. Supports idea of letting Originality NK. Rebuffs idea that Originality is an SK.

663: Continues to advocate giving originality NK decision. Indicates that most of his grounds for suspecting me at 55% was based on "Mostly your predecessor. And some of this stuff regarding Orig." Frames dybeck's actions as consistent with mafia.

665: More back-and-forth with me.

666: Suggests mini-scumdar list to guide Originality.

668: Argues that it's less likely that Originality is mafia, but not a given.

670: Suspects Gemelli/Dybeck partnership based on my rating Dybeck at 50% scum/town.

672: Argues that a 9:2:1 setup is difficult, but not broken. Suggests that Dybeck has just implied that Streeflo is incompetent.

675: Attacks (guess who?) Dybeck again, because "You were very actively hunting Orig as a SK. I don't believe Orig is SK. This was you hunting someone who could be a SK but is very likely vig and you are ignoring the actual hunting of mafia, other than your latest insinuations about shaft.ed and myself." Points out that a mislynch is not an auto-loss if Orig is mafia. Continues to support the vigOrig premise. And this exchange -- Dybeck: "I don't want any of this to dilute the core message, which is that originality is lying and he does have to die." Vollkan: "Your argument that he is lying has been refuted. I don't like your phrase 'have to die'."

678: "I think it is possible that Dybeck is mafia with two of Elias/Lucienne/Gemelli and not Oman."

680: Reiterates that "we haven't instructed Orig not to kill. Orig is to do as Orig sees fit, but with the utmost caution." And to AlyG: "Doc should probably protect either you or Orig, let me think on that one."

705: Responds to shaft.ed's alarm that vollkan has suggested doc protection for Orig: "I said I was not convinced and I needed to think. I didn't mean that I considered Orig an equal option to AlyG at all. I just meant that I was going to look at both options, rather than immediately ruling it out without doing a proper analysis. I can't think of any reason to protect Orig, after all I've been pushing hard on not lynching Orig for the crossfire thing as well." Posts his "Orig list":

1. No Kill
2. Dybeck
3. Oman
4. Elias (though well below the others).

Increases HoS on Oman for putting AlyG on his Orig list. Continues to go after Dybeck: "Everything you are saying there has been refuted at some point, and you must know that."

Responds to my comment that Vollkan seems to have waffled in his opinion on CarrotCake and myself. "As for the difference regarding my opinion of you, Gemelli. It stemmed from my changed views regarding Orig and the situation with Dybeck and from me remembering to consider your predecessor's play. When I said I thought you were very pro-town, I was reading you in isolation." (So again: "anyone who wants to lynch orig is anti-town.")

Indicates that Oman's and Dybeck's lists are both scummy. "At deadline, I would change to Oman if it came down to it, but I would prefer a dybeck lynch today."

712, 714, 718, 721, 723, 725, 727: Accuses Oman of backpedalling for replacing AlyG with Lucienne. Suggests a possible dybeck/oman partnership based on an Oman typo. Points out issues with Oman posts, specifically that Oman seems to be assuming AlyG tracker role despite him having put him on the Orig list. Votes Oman, and continues back-and-forth with him.

728, 730, 732, 734, 736: Unvotes, votes dybeck without explaining. Then claims that he had not thought things through sufficiently, thereby putting Oman lower than Dybeck on the scum list. More back-and-forth with Oman.

747: Responds to my question about why Lucienne is suspicious, saying that her behavior is "not vote-worthy," but a valid tell. Reiterates that he wants Orig's N2 action to be a "complete unknown:"

Hence, Orig should not approach this on a set mathematical basis, as in, selecting the most popular option. Orig should take our opinions as a basis but should exercise his own judgment. If Orig does NK, he will have a lot to answer for, but at the same time I want him to have complete freedom in this matter, to maintain the vital spectre of uncertainty.

Furthermore: "I think it might be an idea not to demand that Orig limit himself to them. Orig has complete control here and our list is only a guide. I suggest he follow the guide, but he is not bound by it if he thinks it is the best course of action otherwise."

751: Tells orig not to kill at random, but to use his judgement.

754-755: Reiterates that he does not want to confine orig to killing only a target on the town's top 4 list. "I would not support a blanket limiting of Orig to the consensus." Suggests that dybeck's use of the word "lose" implies that he is somehow assuming that originality is town (??). Tells orig that there are "many justifiable methodologies" to use in deciding his night action.

760, 763, 766, 768: Continues to beat on dybeck for using the word "lose" instead of "die." Acknowledges that "this is not a killer point, despite how much I am having to write on it. It is a complicated semantic one."

770: Finally accepts dybeck's explanation for using that word: "You have now clarified this matter in full." Claims that despite orig's posting that he views dybeck as probable scum, he does not believe that it is a given that orig will kill dybeck. States that "I don't think Orig is mafia."

774: Explains originality's potential use of the town lynch list. "I don't mean this as a set of rules or anything."

779: Switches direction in response to (you guessed it) a shaft.ed post, and backs off on the need to give Orig "guidance" rather than firm direction. Replies to shaft.ed's comment stating that he could see dybeck's posts as possibly consistent with a frustrated townie: "I understand this point and I admit it is giving me a bit of frustration. I mean, I can see a townie adopting dybeck's stance, the problem is that it has been proven to be so wrong that I can't understand why he persists in pushing it. ... I guess the question is basically: Dybeck who is adamant and scummy, or Oman who is opportunistic and scummy? When I frame it that way, Oman does look worse."

785: Attacks Oman for stating that "the town is strong."

800: CarrotCake was "not clearly pro-town." "I cannot support any motion to outright ban Orig from killing."

802: Corrects typo.

811: Quotes shaft.ed's CarrotCake summary post as a response to dybeck's "has someone managed to find a single scummy thing carrotcake said yet?" Despite the fact that NOTHING in that post points to scumminess, only a limited contribution to the town.

813, 815: Follows up one of my questions by pressing Oman on why he has suspected Lucienne without providing clear explanation of why.

819: FoS's Lucienne based on providing miniscule content.

822: Thanks Lucienne for reminding him that I had rated Dybeck as 50% scummy earlier.

825: Suspects that dybeck's ignoring my posts are a scumbuddy tell.

827: I had posted that if I am confirmed town, I did not want people to automatically assume that dybeck is also town. "This really smacks of you just trying to assert that you are pro-town. Maybe you are pre-empting a mafDybeck lynch and are trying to distance yourself. The point is, I don't like it." (Vollkan examples of posting that he is town: 638, 705, 754) Suspects dybeck for not having a strong read on me yet. Replies to my concern that giving Orig permission to kill outside the consensus list is a mistake: "We need Orig to present the threat that he could kill any mafia tonight, that a mafia could be lynched tomorrow and that orig could NK a mafia on N3 in order to hold this against the mafia. Imagine if, for instance, the mafia are Lucienne, Gemelli and shaft.ed. In that case, there is no threat posed by Orig even if he is limited to No Kill, Dybeck, Oman and Elias."

838:

SK Orig has effectively already lost. He is guaranteed to be NKed over the next 2 nights unless the three mafia are eliminated today, tonight and tomorrow. In which case he loses anyway because we have majority. If he fails to have mafia killed at any of these, he will die and lose.

This is important because it basically means that SKOrig has no incentive to stick to consensus at all. If we mislynch today, he can just kill at random to mess things up since he can be sure of his death. If we lynch mafia today, he will need to kill mafia to have a hope. In other words, we really bear no control over SkOrig

841: Reiterates that vigOrig is the most likely scenario. Clarifies that he does not want orig to kill, but also does not want a blanket ban.

862: "Something dybeck has been saying throughout this game is that I am acting too convinced of Orig being pro-town. I want to be clear that Orig is acting scummy and I do think there is quite a good chance of him being scum. The problem is that he has claimed vig. I don't necessarily like keeping Orig alive today, but he has claimed and, if we lynched him and he came up vig, we would be truly kicking ourselves."

"I don't think Orig is a SK; a vig claim is just too suicidal."

Advances the possibility of mafia-Orig and SK-dybeck.

865:

His behaviour is undoubtedly anti-town; ignoring everything and blindly pursuing the lynch of a claimed vig. Additionally, we have his misrepresentations and hints of buddyness with Gem.

On the other hand, however, I have this niggling concern that dybeck's actions seem almost too blatantly stubborn to be mafia and that his actions make more sense as a SK.

I'm going to throw my concern out here and see what people think: Dybeck is clearly anti-town, but I wonder if a mafioso would be this desperate. I mean, fine, a mafia dybeck would want you dead, but would a mafia really be willing to take the stance that dybeck is, which seems like it will result in his own lynching? Things would probably make more sense if dybeck is SK and Orig is mafia. This would fit with the fact that dybeck seems convinced Orig is mafia. Dybeck SK NEEDS us to lynch mafia today in order to have a hope of winning.

871: Attacks dybeck for creating strawmen, when in fact dybeck's comment was accurate. Further goes to explain that if orig is Mafia, the SK will certainly kill him tonight. Claims that dybeck's leaving his vote on orig since post 404 means that he is "Desperately seeking the lynch of Orig who he thinks is mafia.... "

881: Replies to shaft.ed:

It's frustrating. Dybeck is clearly anti-town in his behaviour; I don't think we need debate that. And, yet, he is playing in such a blatantly anti-town manner that it just makes no sense to me at all. I mean, it could be a strategy in itself, but this gets tangled up in layers of messy WIFOM and I'd rather not go there.

Oman is playing like classic opportunistic scum. We've established that well and truly.

I guess the reason I am favouring dybeck is that his actions make no sense to me from a pro-town whereas I can imagine a townie acting like Oman, though his disapperance is a cause for concern. T

hat said, if Oman really was frustrated and wavering in his views, one would think he would be posting a lot more in an effort to sort things out. The fact that he has now vanished suggests more strongly that he may be scum.

887: Attacks dybeck's list.

893: Reiterates that "If Orig = SK, he effectively loses unless mafia is lynched today, in which case he still needs to NK a mafioso to have a hope of winning. If we mislynch today, Orig has effectively lost so he will likely just kill at random."

899: Describes originality's "why I can't be mafia" post as WIFOMish.

902: Reiterates that orig should not be autolynched if he kills someone outside the consensus list.

907-908: Analyzes the scenario of Orig being an SK. "It is true, therefore, that if Orig does not NK, he is almost certainly town. The thing I don't get though, dybeck, is that for all your insistence on lynching Orig, your main concern seems to be preventing him from NKing. You seem to be pushing for us to mandate no NK from dybeck when you should know full well that dybeck will only oblige with that if he is town "

921: Switches gears (prompted by shaft.ed post, cue expressions of shock): "I read your analysis and I think that you are correct here and that we have finally determined the best approach to make. We should be demanding that Orig does not commit a NK."

927: Despite what was posted in 921, does not think there is a really strong argument for a ban on orig NKing vs. him using a consensus approach.

937: Goes back to advocating no-NK.

953: Suspects originality posts, specifically the fact that he keeps reiterating that he is pro-town. Suspects that orig may be bussing Oman. "At the moment, I am happy with either dybeck or Oman. I will wait until Oman checks in before I consider changing my vote."

957: Goes back after dybeck:

Way to look like you're bussing your scumbuddy whilst still continuing your campaign for an alternate lynch.

I'm happy that both orig and Oman are mafia, and I'd be happy with either.

I might actually be happier with Oman, because in the event that we're wrong in any combination, we've pretty much managed to neuter originality for tonight because he now knows how likely his lynch is for tomorrow if he strays from the "no-kill" line.

Anybody need to say anything before I drop the hammer?

I just reread this and it chronically set off all sorts of bells for me.

1) Dybeck, I thought you were arguing that Oman was the SK? Does a possible bus (only possible, it may not be at all) really have the potential to shift this? If it has shifted you, then I demand that you identity a SK.

2) More importantly, you seem damn keen on Oman's lynch. You haven't even asked for a claim and you were evidently prepared to hammer.

3) You are pre-empting that this hammering could be wrong, despite the fact that you appear to be champing at the bit to hammer.

4) You are wrong that we have neutered Orig even if we are wrong about Oman (interesting that you saying this serves to encourage Oman's lynch). If Oman is town and Orig is mafia, he is still going to NK regardless, since his death is assured by the SK. If Orig is SK, he will pretty much have to NK to have a shot. In other words, your argument is complete rot. If Orig is scum, he will very near certainly night kill.

5) Using Gemelli's wonderful little tool, dybeck has not FoSed Oman this day. He FoSed Oman on D1 for "misrepresentation". Willing to hammer under no pressure of deadline without a FoS?

Ironically, this attack is a response to a dybeck post that essentially mirrors Vollkan's suspicion in 953.

960, 961, 963: Comments on Gemelli's super-fabulous parsing tool.

972: Replies to my question on whether dybeck's post is really "chomping at the bit." Claims that he views any variation of "should I do the honors?" to be a scumtell. Defends Oman as lurking in a number of games, not just ours. Demands that dybeck point out another SK candidate if he views originality as mafia.

974: Attacks dybeck for claiming 100% certainty on orig guilt, and for not pursuing his lynch in spite of this feeling. This is "damned if you do, damned if you don't" logic. Dybeck has been scummy for pressing for originality's lynch, and now he is scummy for pressing for someone else's lynch.

976: Welcomes Elias back.

982: Continues to press dybeck.

993: Claims that he is not asking dybeck to name an SK because he necessarily thinks we have one. Only wants to gauge dybeck's response to the question. Responds to my FoS by saying "I never said that I was going to vote Oman if he did not post to my satisfaction; I simply said I was not going to change until he checked in." Literally true, but smacks of hair-splitting and deceptiveness. Also: "I know CC was not scummy and I think her suspicion in AlyG was very well-placed." Argues with Elias and dybeck on why originality's vig claim is plausible, rather than being the best claim option for a SK.

995: Backs off a bit, admits that Vig is a likely claim for an SK. Lists 10 points in favor of dybeck being scum.

999: Replies to dybeck's response to those 10 points. Claims that post 993 presents unrebutted evidence as to why orig can't be scum. Also claims that he is not defending orig, that he thinks orig is 65% likely to be scum.

1001: "Why Dybeck is Wrong Regarding Originality Being Obvious Scum" ... immediately followed by a disclaimer that orig is 65% scum Concludes that based on Elias analysis, we should take a closer look at orig.

1008: Claims that much of suspicion vs dybeck is due to use of terms like "100%" and "positive." Goes on to say that "it is very rare that I will be definite on things, because I see certainty as something which no townie should have." This is demonstratably false. In this game, Vollkan has regularly posted opinions as though they were confirmed facts.

Responds to suspicions I'd raised. Responds to suspicions that shaft.ed raised. Strongly believes that one of the three players, Dybeck, Orig, and Oman, is scum.

1011: Replies to orig's post by increasing his scum assessment of orig to 75%.

1014: Admits that an earlier post of mine that vollkan had viewed as scummy "looks more valid" now.

1016, 1018, 1020: Renewed focus on originality

1025: Responds to Elias's analysis of his case against Dybeck: "And you know what... Unvote. There are a number of minor tells in there, but collectively and when analysed by someone other than myself (multiple scrutiny = very important) it is not decisive. I hadn't gotten the whole thing out and analysed before this, so it was a good exercise."

1033: Oman is now his top lynch candidate. Orig "could be newb scum or new vig and I cannot think of any way to differentiate. His responses to my interrogation were what I would have expected. The fact is, that he really seems to think it makes sense for him to distance himself. It could be pure BS coming from him, but his explanation is complete at the moment."

"If Oman is mafia I do not think that shaft.ed and gemelli are." Suggests possible relationship between Elias and Lucienne.

1040: Disappointed at the prospect of replacing Oman, due to difficulty of getting a replacement.

1048: Replies to shaft.ed and dybeck posts.

1053: Detailed numerical analysis arguing that lynching originality would be bad for the town.

1067, 1070: Claims to have "crippled dybeck's case against originality" and wants him to reply.

1084: SK orig will probably not NK. "I just proved numerically that lynching Orig is a terrible idea."

1088: Replies to Korlash's initial suspicions of him. "If you read my posts #566 and #574, I argued that a vigging was very dangerous. In #560, I said I was definitely not up for the risk. In #558 I said his vigging was dangerous. And in #518 I agreed with shaft.ed's numerical argument against Orig vigging. That was just 6 posts after the first one you cite." <-- THIS IS FALSE. VOLLKAN HAS MADE MORE POSTS ADVOCATING US LETTING ORIG PICK HIS OWN NK TARGET THAN POSTS SUPPORTING NO-KILL. MANY OF THOSE POSTS WERE MADE AFTER THE POSTS HE LISTS ABOVE.

1090: Replies to dybeck's vote on Korlash by returning his vote to dybeck.

1098: Claims that posts along the lines of "Orig is to do as orig sees fit, but with the utmost caution" was a cryptic way of telling him not to NK, but keeping the uncertainty active. Accuses dybeck of parroting.

1107: Explains what "ad hominem" means. Attacks Korlash for "role claiming" (his words).

1109: Attacks Korlash's use of ellipses. Continues to state that Korlash has claimed.

1111, 1113, 1114: Continues to explain why he thinks Korlash's post constituted a roleclaim. "If you weren't, that's fine."

1117: Continues to attack Korlash over his "claiming vanilla was the best thing I could do" stance. "It seems Oman has been replaced by a village idiot."

1123: More fun back and forths with Korlash.

1124: Responds to my questioning why he continues to use the term "role claim" by saying that his post amounted to an obvious claim in his opinion. Claims that calling someone a village idiot is not ad hominem.

1126: Why claiming vanilla is damaging.

1128: Explains acronyms.

1139, 1147: Keeps pushing Korlash. Votes Korlash twice.

1149, 1151: Rebuffs Korlash's list of false claims that have been made against him.

1158: Responds to my opinion that only one of the posts Korlash made is in fact a "false claim." Acknowledges "overarguing" on points.

1166: Replaces his Korlash vote with an FoS. "Typically, there are only 3-member mafias in minis." Runs through analysis of three scenarios, but only touches on those where Orig is a vig or Orig is an SK.

1168: "Orig has been ordered not to NK, punishable by his own lynching. He won't NK."

1171, 1177, 1180: More dialogue with Korlash. Vote correction to mod.

1183, 1184, 1188: Reiterates that Korlash is scummy. Suspects that Korlash not wanting to put someone at L-1 suggests that he is worried about possible ramifications. Points out that if orig misvigs tonight, we lose. Votes dybeck, putting him at L-1.

1190-1191: Unvotes quickly. Claims that this was a trap to see how strongly Korlash felt about not wanting to leave someone at L-1. HoS on Korlash.

1193: Replies to dybeck's role claim. "All in all, I think it more likely that Orig is SK than mafia." Also suggests that Dybeck may be the SK.

1195: Replies to Korlash's questioning about the trap.

1208: Responds to shaft.ed post by changing gears. Shaft.ed doesn't buy the cop claim, and now Vollkan doesn't, either. Posts more questions for dybeck. Tells orig that he doesn't think dybeck is lying, asks orig to "truthfully claim now."

1211: Posts that he never said he was certain that dybeck is not lying. "Orig and Dybeck's claims are mutually exclusive, since insanity and vigmiller are both exceedingly unlikely. In other words, one of them is scum." "Tbh, I find it very hard to imagine a mafioso doing a dybeck and pushing so adamantly for the lynch of someone, to the point of drawing themself under such heat. It just is not sensible scumplay. At most, all dybeck needed to do would be to play normally and get a 4:3:1 mislynch, then NK Orig. At worst, the mafia get a 4:2. The risk assessment just doesn't weigh up." Thinks that Dybeck could, however, be an SK.

1214: "In fact, dybeck would have looked much less suspicious if he had abandoned his case."

1218: Question for Korlash and Elias

1226: "time for me to open the floodgates and go on the rabid offensive" Describes my posted opinion that either orig or dybeck is the right play today as "a major slip," and FoS's me. Once again: if you want to lynch orig, you must be scummy.

FoS's Korlash for basically the same thing.

FoS's Lucienne for chronically lurking and "her only content is plainly anti-town."

Replies to a shaft.ed post by switching gears (sigh). Now Dybeck is either mafia or cop, not an SK.

Suggests that Dybeck will be NK'd by the SK. (This seems to imply that the SK will see Dybeck as mafia, when in fact Vollkan has just painted a picture that he could be a cop. If the SK kills town, the SK loses, right?)

Votes Lucienne.

1228: Backs down on Elias ranking: "If I saw more of you, I would probably think you were pro-town." (???)

If you want percentages (0% = obv town, 100% = obv scum)
AlyG = 0%
shaft.ed = 20%
Elias = 55%
Gemelli = 60%}
Korlash = 65%} Not tied, but the above was more based on specific reactions to lynching Orig. On overall perception, Korlash is scummier.
Lucienne = 70%
dybeck = 75%
Orig = 100%

1230: "Gemelli is suspicious for his supporting Orig's lynch when we know that it is not the best option for the town."

1232: Jousting with Korlash

1236: "Gemelli, your number analysis is correct, but faulty because it fails to look at the motivation of the SK being his own survival and win:" Predicts that the SK will not night kill if the town mislynches. More numerical analysis of why lynching the SK is bad.

1240, 1242: Replies to Korlash's questioning why he voted for Lucienne. After a PBPA, decides that there is nothing inherently damning and unvotes.

1251: Responds to my suspicions of him that he has been changing direction increasingly and making posts that he then retracts. Claims that there was obvious anti-town content in her most recent post, and that voting someone and then unvoting on second thought is not harmful. Agrees with shaft.ed post. Once again, casts suspicion on dybeck. "I think the mafia in that situation are most likely- dybeck/Gemelli/Elias or dybeck/Gemelli/Korlash"

1254: Replies to post by Korlash. Starts tracking people's perspective on dybeck's claim. Criticizes dybeck for claiming cop.

1259: PBPA on Elias. Suspects that I am Elias's most likely scum partner, followed by dybeck.

1260: Replies to my responses.

1266: HoS's dybeck for posting something his answers to my question on whether everyone else agrees with Vollkan's arguments.

1268: "I am the one agreeing that Orig is most likely the SK; I don't dispute that. All the "evidence" is saying is that Orig is probably the SK. My numbers build upon that to point out that lynching him is not in our best interests."

==========================================

THEMES OF NOTE

What is originality's most likely role?

* 408: Orig is suspicious, but AlyG is more suspicious
* 439: Scenarios where orig=vig are both unlikely
* 446: vigOrig is "plausible," if not likely.
* 448-449: Orig is most likely mafia with AlyG
* 455: Orig is more likely mafia than SK
* 457: CarrotCake doesn't make sense as an SK kill
* 487: Orig vig claim seems genuine
* 496-497: Orig is most likely not the SK
* 501: Suspecting that orig is the SK is suspicious
* 506-508: Orig is most likely vig
* 549: Orig is most likely not an SK. Claim is most likely genuine
* 573: Analysis of possible scenarios omit any possibility of orig being an SK
* 575: "I don't think Orig is SK"
* 598: "CarrotCake was clearly using very good logic and posting to a great extent. Thus, she was a threat to the scum. By NKing her, there is the added advantage of throwing suspicion onto AlyG. It is VERY plausible that scum would NK carrot."
* 607: "This makes me think he is unlikely to be mafia and, so, I am left thinking he is pro-town vig."
* 638: Orig is most likely town
* 642: Orig is most likely town
* 651: Orig may be SK
* 662: Orig is probably not SK
* 668: Orig mafia is possible, but less likely
* 675: To dybeck: "You were very actively hunting Orig as a SK. I don't believe Orig is SK. This was you hunting someone who could be a SK but is very likely vig and you are ignoring the actual hunting of mafia"
* 800: CarrotCake was "not clearly pro-town."
* 838: If Orig is SK, he has effectively already lost
* 841: vigOrig is most likely situation
* 862: "Something dybeck has been saying throughout this game is that I am acting too convinced of Orig being pro-town. I want to be clear that Orig is acting scummy and I do think there is quite a good chance of him being scum. The problem is that he has claimed vig." Raises possibility of mafia-orig and SK-dybeck
* 893: "If Orig = SK, he effectively loses unless mafia is lynched today"
* 907-908: "if Orig does not NK, he is almost certainly town."
* 993: "I know CC was not scummy and I think her suspicion in AlyG was very well-placed."
* 999: Claims that post 993 offers unrebutted evidence of why originality can't be scum. That being said, believes that originality is 65% likely to be scum
* 1001: "Why Dybeck is Wrong Regarding Originality Being Obvious Scum" ... immediately followed by a disclaimer that orig is 65% scum
* 1011: Orig is now 75% scum
* 1208: Orig should "truthfully claim now"
* 1228: Orig is now 100% scum
* 1268: "I am the one agreeing that Orig is most likely the SK; I don't dispute that. All the 'evidence' is saying is that Orig is probably the SK."

What is the town's best course of action today?

* 392: The "we should not kill the SK" strategy is only valid if we know the SK's identity.
* 398-399: It doesn't really matter whether we go after the SK or mafia today.
* 439: Votes dybeck
* 457: "In short, our best bet is to lynch the SK. I feel confident AlyG is not the SK, her actions are either mafia or tracker."
* 462: AlyG should track originality. Votes originality
* 487: "Oman and Dybeck have both really been taking similar lines in regards to Orig, however Oman did vote Dybeck in #440. I am now sure that this stance is anti-town,

but I myself held it just yesterday until I realised how stupid it is.

I have my eye on them, particularly Dybeck given all the previous stuff."
* 496-497: "My instinct is telling me that the people pushing Orig's lynch are mafia trying to score a vig or SK lynch"
* 492: We should not guide AlyG's actions tonight
* 501: Votes Oman
* 508: Votes Dybeck
* 512: Tells originality that "you should kill...just be careful"
* 517: "Don't kill tonight Orig."
* 526: Still favors a Dybeck lynch
* 544: Unvotes, still favors a dybeck lynch.
* 554, 557, 559: To orig: "in short, your vigging is dangerous to us."
* 565: A vig on N2 would be a bad idea
* 575: "I don't think we should lynch Orig today. If he is scum, then there is a SK (since I don't think Orig is SK) who would be crazy not to get rid of him. As such, lynching Orig today will only help that scum group. Dybeck is far more sensible a choice."
* 608: Anyone who wants to get rid of orig looks anti-town. "I think it might be better if we allow Orig to kill, but request that he take much more thought."
* 656, 658: Argues against the "no kill" limitation on originality.
* 662: We should let originality NK.
* 663, 666: Originality should be guided, but not restricted, by town consensus
* 680: "We haven't instructed Orig not to kill. Orig is to do as Orig sees fit, but with the utmost caution." And to AlyG: "Doc should probably protect either you or Orig, let me think on that one."
* 705: "I can't think of any reason to protect Orig" ... "At deadline, I would change to Oman if it came down to it, but I would prefer a dybeck lynch today."
* 725: Votes Oman
* 728: Votes Dybeck
* 747: "Orig should take our opinions as a basis but should exercise his own judgment. If Orig does NK, he will have a lot to answer for, but at the same time I want him to have complete freedom in this matter, to maintain the vital spectre of uncertainty."
* 751: Same argument: Orig should not be bound by consensus
* 754-755: "I would not support a blanket limiting of Orig to the consensus." Orig has "many justifiable methodologies" for selecting an action.
* 779: Firm direction for Orig would be better than vague guidance.
* 800: "I cannot support any motion to outright ban Orig from killing."
* 841: Does not want orig to kill, but does not want to ban him from killing.
* 865: "Dybeck SK NEEDS us to lynch mafia today in order to have a hope of winning."
* 902: Reiterates that orig should not be autolynched if he kills someone outside the consensus list.
* 921: "I read your analysis and I think that you are correct here and that we have finally determined the best approach to make. We should be demanding that Orig does not commit a NK."
* 927: Does not think there is a really strong argument for a ban on orig NKing vs. him using a consensus approach.
* 937: Once again, no-NK is the way to go
* 1053: Lynching originality would be bad for the town
* 1084: Ditto
* 1088: "If you read my posts #566 and #574, I argued that a vigging was very dangerous. In #560, I said I was definitely not up for the risk. In #558 I said his vigging was dangerous. And in #518 I agreed with shaft.ed's numerical argument against Orig vigging. That was just 6 posts after the first one you cite." <-- THIS IS FALSE. IN BETWEEN THOSE POSTS, VOLLKAN CONTINUED TO ADVOCATE FOR AN ORIG NK, AS DEMONSTRATED ABOVE
* 1098: Claims that his posts that included comments along the lines of "Orig is to do as orig sees fit, but with the utmost caution" were just a cryptic way of telling him not to NK, but keeping the uncertainty active.
* 1168: "Orig has been ordered not to NK, punishable by his own lynching. He won't NK."
* 1188: Votes dybeck to L-1
* 1190: Unvotes
* 1226: Anyone who wants to lynch originality is scummy by definition
* 1230: "Gemelli is suspicious for his supporting Orig's lynch when we know that it is not the best option for the town."

What is dybeck's most likely role, based on the evidence?

* 439: "Dybeck's willingness to follow AlyG is very smelly"
* 487: "Oman and Dybeck have both really been taking similar lines in regards to Orig, however Oman did vote Dybeck in #440."
* 497: "my instinct is telling me that the people pushing Orig's lynch are mafia trying to score a vig or SK lynch.
* 501: "The fact that [dybeck] is now trying to prove that Orig is the SK, in light of everything I have been saying suggests very strongly that he has a motivation to get rid of Orig."
* 544: "The fact that Orig is supporting Dybeck's lynch is a little perturbing to me. If Dybeck is SK, then his death is going to mean the end of Orig."
* 598: "I was wrong...Dybeck's latest stuff makes a lot of sense and I now see he has never been stubbornly pushing for Orig's lynch; in fact, Dybeck now appears quite pro-town to me."
* 608: "he may very well be mafia trying to get rid of Orig; same goes for anyone on Orig's wagon."
* 651: "Dybeck's actions are also entirely consistent with him being a mafia hunting SK-Orig."
* 663: Dybeck's actions are consistent with mafia.
* 675: "Your argument that [originality] is lying has been refuted."
* 678: "I think it is possible that Dybeck is mafia with two of Elias/Lucienne/Gemelli and not Oman."
* 779: "I guess the question is basically: Dybeck who is adamant and scummy, or Oman who is opportunistic and scummy? When I frame it that way, Oman does look worse."
* 825: Dybeck may be mafia with Gemelli
* 862: Raises possibility of mafia-Orig and SK-dybeck
* 865: Dybeck is most likely mafia
* 1008: "The mind changing is something that bugs me for the simple reason that there was no need for him to change. He could have kept pushing Orig if he was so sure (as well as actually dealing with my arguments and rebuttal); there was no deadline. Instead, once Orig's NK is gone, he jumps over to Oman who he thought was the SK until fairly recently (remember, dybeck was adamant about not lynching the SK). "
* 1193: Dybeck may be the SK
* 1208: Doesn't think Dybeck is lying about his cop claim
* 1211: Dybeck's play doesn't make sense as mafia, but he could be an SK
* 1214: "In fact, dybeck would have looked much less suspicious if he had abandoned his case." (Compare and contrast with 1008)
* 1226: Dybeck may be cop, or may be mafia. Will likely be killed by the SK.
* 1251: Suspects Dybeck is mafia, lists possible buddies

What is the alignment of Dr. BS/Gemelli?

* 349: "Dr. Blackstrike: Newbish. I don't think is scum."
* 598: "Gemelli looks very pro-town to me"
* 638: Gemelli is 55% scummy
* 670: Gemelli may be mafia with Dybeck
* 678: "I think it is possible that Dybeck is mafia with two of Elias/Lucienne/Gemelli and not Oman."
* 705: "As for the difference regarding my opinion of you, Gemelli. It stemmed from my changed views regarding Orig and the situation with Dybeck and from me remembering to consider your predecessor's play. When I said I thought you were very pro-town, I was reading you in isolation."
* 865: There are hints of buddyness between Gemelli and Dybeck, even though Dybeck seems to be more likely a SK (???)
* 1033: "If Oman is mafia I do not think that shaft.ed and gemelli are."
* 1228: Gemelli is 60% scummy
* 1230: "Gemelli is suspicious for his supporting Orig's lynch when we know that it is not the best option for the town."
* 1251: "I think the mafia in that situation are most likely- dybeck/Gemelli/Elias or dybeck/Gemelli/Korlash"
* 1259: PBPA on Elias. Suspects that I am Elias's most likely scum partner, followed by dybeck.

[Gemelli]

#1: Vollkan has been going after Dybeck like he was made of ham through all of D2. This is not in itself surprising given Dybeck's attitude. What is notable after a complete reread is that the grounds for his suspicion have shifted dramatically, not just from the start of D2 to now, but in some cases from post to post. Examples: in posts 439 and 497, he suspects Dybeck of being mafia. In 544, he starts suspecting that Dybeck is the SK. In 598, he describes Dybeck as "quite pro-town." But just a few posts later, in 608, he's back to arguing that Dybeck is probably mafia, a line he continues until 1193, when he's back to accusing Dybeck of being the SK. In 1208, he states that he believes Dybeck's cop claim, that his claim doesn't make sense as a mafioso, but that SK is likely. In 1226 he's back to accusing Dybeck of being mafia.

So the notable thing is that my opinion changed?

No. The notable thing is that you have argued both sides of the fence against Dybeck. First, he seems mafia to you. Then his behavior doesn't seem consistent with mafia, so he must be the SK. It just feels to me like you've assumed the verdict and are just looking for the argument to support it.

I am looking at your posts in aggregate here. Individually, I do not have a problem with each post in and of itself. It's the attack-dybeck-from-any-angle-I-can-think-of approach that I find suspicious.

In most of the examples you gave, I was merely looking at possibilities. In the sole example where my view actually shifted (dybeck being pro-town) I admitted that "I was wrong".

In other words, this point is complete rot.

I would have been perfectly happy if you'd actually come out from time to time and admitted that you had made mistakes. But look at the facts: after the "quite pro-town" post you refer to (598), the VERY NEXT TIME you mentioned Dybeck (608), you had him back as likely anti-town, and then by 638 he was back at the top of your scum list and you voted him.

It's apparent to me that you have assumed a guilty Dybeck since very early in the game. Again, he might in fact be scum, in which case I will owe you an apology. But you have already acknowledged that most of your D2 arguments against Dybeck do not merit a vote, yet you continue to argue that your aggressive stance against him is justified. Something smells rotten in Denmark.

Review post 974, in which Vollkan claims that Dybeck is scummy for dropping his case against Originality, despite being "100% convinced" of orig's scumminess. Then look at posts 1008 -- where Vollkan posts that Dybeck had "no need" to abandon the lynch-originality theme, and that he finds that change in heart suspicious -- and 1214, in which Vollkan says that Dybeck would have been LESS suspicious if he had abandoned the case against originality earlier. Vollkan has created a damned-if-you-do, damned-if-you-don't situation; no matter what course of action Dybeck chooses here, Vollkan will attack him for it. You could draw a conclusion from this that Vollkan has made up his mind that Dybeck should be lynched, and is opportunistically using whatever facts happen to be at hand to advance that agenda.

Now you are just misconstruing what I have been saying.

If dybeck was 100% convinced of Orig being "scum", he should NOT have dropped his pursuit so arbitrarily. What he should have done is admit he was wrong in full and with reasoning.

There is a difference between simply saying "Righto. Let's lynch Oman instead" to "I have reviewed your arguments and you make a good case against lynching Orig"

It is not a Catch 22. I would have been perfectly happy if dybeck had abandoned his case, rather than arbitrarily flipping.

You are dodging my point. Much of your case vs dybeck is based on his single-minded pusuit of the scumOrig argument. And yet in 1214, you said "In fact, dybeck would have looked much less suspicious if he had abandoned his case" vs orig. This is a point that shaft.ed has also raised, and so far I have been unconvinced by your responses.

We've been over my "support" for Orig killing already. I never wanted him to kill, but I wanted him to be a threat. The point was that, after the numbers materialised, it became patently obvious that the risk outweighed any potential benefit of uncertainty

I'm not buying this. Your defense has been that you were trying to deliver cryptic messages to orig that implied that he shouldn't kill, despite (1) your repeated verbal support for allowing him to lynch outside consensus, using his judgement, and (2) your insistence that you would not support any blanket ban on him killing. I find that argument specious, especially with post 680 buried in there where you consider the merits of giving orig doc protection tonight.

I was pretty clear that I had "noticed" it. It was not always my view. Given CC's very big attacking post, I was initially convinced she was uber-town, but it became clearer to me after I read that she was not. Nonetheless, I said nothing to see how much longer the anti-Origs, mainly dybeck, would keep it up.

I overstated the case by saying you'd known it all along; that was a poor attempt at irony and I apologize. My point, though, was that you made a complete reversal of your stated opinion of CC between posts 598 and 800 with no incremental change of opinion stated in between. Shaft.ed's analysis pointed out that there was nothing innately uber-town about CarrotCake, given. But you quoted his analysis in a response to dybeck asking what evidence had been given that CarrotCake seemed scummy. Given your attack on dybeck for reversing his position on the orig-lynch topic, why is it questionable that I am suspecting you for a 180-degree reversal of opinion with no intermediate comment?

751-755: Vollkan states that "I would not support a blanket limiting of Orig to the consensus." 778, shaft.ed states his preference from having orig work off a list, and indicates that he could see dybeck's posts reflecting the perspective of an angry townie. 779, Vollkan agrees to this, agrees that shaft.ed's dybeck-townie suspicions are valid, and states that "Oman looks worse" at this point.

Where is the "agreement" you refer to? I said shaft.ed's suspicions were valid and that Oman looked worse. Oman did look worse. As for the "blanket limiting", I have already said that I was trying to codedly tell Orig not to NK in such a way as to ensure full uncertainty.

On review, this point was not strong and should not have been part of the summary. I was reacting to your "That's fine" in response to shaft.ed's statement that he will be autovoting if orig lynches outside consensus, but you then go on to explain that "there is even an advantage in us adopting slightly different attitudes to this," so chalk this one up to me being overly paranoid in the face of a monstrous headache. But as I said above, I find your argument that you were trying to deliver a message to originality not to kill -- and that somehow, he would pick up on this, but the scum wouldn't -- hard to swallow.

Sorry? Where did I say Orig was 100% confirmed scum.

If you want percentages (0% = obv town, 100% = obv scum)
AlyG = 0%
shaft.ed = 20%
Elias = 55%
Gemelli = 60%}
Korlash = 65%} Not tied, but the above was more based on specific reactions to lynching Orig. On overall perception, Korlash is scummier.
Lucienne = 70%
dybeck = 75%

Orig = 100%

Please explain how it is possible to read that post otherwise. This should be good.

You are ignoring my post 474:

Unvote [Orig] What the hell am I thinking?

If Orig is a vig, the set-up is 6:3. In other words, a scum lynch today and a vig kill tonight can put as at 6:1. This game is well within our grasp. The constant focus on wcs has distorted things.

How the hell does that support your "anyone who wants to lynch originality is scum" premise? All you are saying is that if orig is vig, things aren't as dire as you and Oman had been assuming.

In post 779, vollkan claims to have "proved" that dybeck's argument that originality is scum is wrong.

Key words "dybeck's argument"

No, key word "proved." Dybeck's argument had been that originality was obviously scum, based on the fact that he had been tracked as targetting a pro-town player. Your "proof" boiled down to two key points: (1) CC made sense as a vig target, and (2) the most likely scenario is that Originality's claim is valid. Did you ever go back and admit that you were wrong about having "proved" that dybeck was incorrect? No. You shifted your stance to SK-orig with no comment.

"Tactic"? My numbers prove things. People do the opposite, despite me having shown them to be anti-town and not being rebutted. It is perfectly sensible for me to suspect those people.

As a newer player, it is harder for me to assess whether your numerical analyses are valid or not. They LOOK valid to me, absolutely. But my observation is that in this game, you have used the word "proof" when the facts do not really support it. And claiming that you proved an ARGUMENT was false, even when the conclusion ended up being true, does not inspire me to let your "proofs" direct my actions in this game.

All in all, since Orig is unlikely the SK, we know the paths that can arise if he is mafia.

I am talking in terms of probability and of reasoning pathways.

If we lynch Orig (or anyone) and he is SK, then our wcs D3 is:
4:3 LYLO. Of course, if someone else is the SK, then we know Orig is scum, which takes us to 4:2 LYLO. If we get it right again, we move to 4:1 NOT LYLO.

If we lynch Orig (or anyone) and he is mafia then our wcs D3 is:
3:2:1 See my previous post for the yucky consequences of this. Basically a scum win most likely.

I look at both options here, so you can hardly say I am arguing he is one or the other.

Basically, all in all, I don't think we should lynch Orig today. If this is a SK-game, then there is a good chance of cross-fire. If it is not a SK-game, lynching Orig would be stupid and unproductive.

Convinced Orig is vig? It sure as hell doesn't look like it.

Now you're just cherry-picking quote fragments. My point is that in 455, you said that Orig is likely not the SK, because "There is no logical reason for the SK to kill Carrot." In 457, you reiterated this point, questioning Oman for doubting you. And in 487, you said "The fact that has has claimed vig, a role likely to get NKed,

points to him being genuine.

" You may not have been "convinced," but you were sure arguing strongly through this entire part of the game that his vig claim seemed legitimate.

Now, next on the agenda. Unvote, Vote: Oman. FoS: Dybeck

Reason: Oman is now arguing firmly, and very poorly, that Orig is the SK. The fact

that he is now trying to prove that Orig is the SK, in light of everything I have been saying

suggests very strongly that he has a motivation to get rid of Orig.

Here, Oman is poorly arguing Orig is likely SK as support for lynching. I disagree with his arguments and see it as mafia trying to off the vig/SK. Gemelli is, again, misrepresenting me.

Misrepresenting? My whole point here is that you find Oman suspicious because "everything you have been saying" demonstrates that Orig cannot be the SK. Read the posts around this one; you have been arguing that the most likely scenario at this point is that orig is a vig.

Again, I am pretty clear that I am NOT convinced. I argue he is probably pro-town, but I have clear reservations.

My point here was to show the start of your change in direction. Up until that post, nearly ALL of what you'd posted about originality supported the premise that his claim was genuine. This was the first time that you expressed a lack of conviction, and your posts prior to this did not make it "pretty clear" that you were unconvinced.

As for 862, Gemelli is again being completely fallacious:

Can you please name the fallacy I am committing here? What I am trying to demonstrate in these posts is that while your opinions of orig's role have shifted over the course of the game, the course of action you've advocated to the town -- lynching orig would be a bad idea -- has not. 862 is the first instance after weeks of pro-orig posts where you pull back on that, and I found that notable. Where's the fallacy?

As for 999 and 993, I don't see the problem. My arguments were not rebutted. That doesn't mean I should be 100% convinced. 65% was what I thought and I don't see why it is unreasonable.

The problem is that you claimed that post 993 offered evidence for why Originality

can't

be scum. If you had claimed that the post offered evidence for why Originality is not

definitely

scum, I'd have no issues. But that's not what you did. Again, you are overstating the argument and I find it scummy.

As for my rising suspicion, Orig has been looking more and more SKish to the point where I am now assuming he is scum (ie. 100%) Don't get me wrong, he could be vig, but his recent behaviour stands firmly against it. If you want an actual percentage, then I remain at 75%. I am just assuming henceforth that he will act as a SK to ensure that we plan for the worst.

I don't even know where to begin with this comment. Is he 100%, or 75%? Do you think he's the SK, or are you just making that assumption as a WCS?

The whole purpose of this section was to demonstrate that you have been making analyses of Orig's role throughout the game with confidence, and from time to time using your analysis as the basis for suspecting others who question your "don't lynch orig" advocacy. I find that suspicious.

I think the antagonism is justified. By 1025, the point was that there was room for reasonable doubt (not 'decisive'). Since then, he has been getting even scummier (as I have been arguing)

Again, look at 598 and 638. You switched from "seems quite pro-town" to "scummiest player in the game" without any intervening commentary on Dybeck.

It's the same behavior I noticed in your attitudes toward me: I went from "very pro-town" to "55% scummy" with minimal interim commentary on why. You've claimed that this was because you had forgotten to read me in context with Dr BS, but your assessment of him before I joined was that he was newbish, but probably not scummy. When one sees radical shifts in direction without supporting commentary to back it up, pointing that behavior out is important. You've jumped on those sorts of things yourself this game, so please don't act appalled when someone else applies the same standards to you.

Find me the fallacies and incomplete reasoning.

Ad hominem against Korlash (the "Village Idiot"). Begging the question ("I argue that X is true, player Y argues that this is not true, therefore Y is suspicious since X is true"). Poisoning the Well (Oman giving AlyG townie brownies is "kind of like giving Hitler the Nobel Peace Prize"). And all of the stuff I've harped on about how some of your "proofs" about Originality and Dybeck are actually just strongly held opinions. I do not have the stomach to pick out every single instance of fallacious reasoning in your posts, but will locate more examples if you insist.

* Based on the relationships I've been able to track here, if Vollkan *does* come up scum, I would consider his most likely scumbuddies to be Lucienne and Korlash.

I'm curious as to why.

For Lucienne, there were a few things. When she needed to go on V/LA, you used strong wording to indicate that you didn't want her replaced. You showered praise on her for identifying a tenuous Dybeck/Elias relationship. And your short-term vote on her smells of bussing to me.

For Korlash, I am basing most of this on your relationship with Oman before he was replaced. You and he seemed to bolster each others' numerical analyses, and you were resistant to move your vote to him several times even while stating that you thought he seemed scummier than even Dybeck. Admittedly, your back-and-forth with him today makes this link seem weaker, but given the other possibilities, Korlash makes the most sense.

As for the theory you give at the end, it's baseless conjecture.

It is conjecture, yes. But it is a potential scenario that occurred to me during the analysis, and it is absolutely consistent with your rabid pursuit of Dybeck through D2. Hardly baseless.

And I feel the same way about dybeck being scum.

Fair enough. If Dybeck does turn up scum, I preemptively apologize for dragging the town down this rabbit hole. But until we get his alignment confirmed, I do think there is cause to suspect you as a possible mafioso, and honestly I don't think you've done anything to allay my suspicions.

[Gemelli]

1001: Why the smile? There is no inconsistency

I simply found it funny that you had been beating on Dybeck for so long for insisting that Orig was scum, and in this post your argument was essentially "he is NOT obvious scum! He is only 65% likely to be scum!" My sense of humor is unusual, and was probably influenced by CRT overexposure at that point.

1088: I said vigging was very dangerous in the posts referred to, yes. Then I continued my line of wanting uncertainty. There is no contradiction. Vigging was dangerous, but uncertainty was good. It was only when I realised how dangerous exactly, that I decided to change my line.

I appreciate your at least acknowledging that you changed your mind here. What bothered me was that during this part of the game, you weren't just arguing for keeping orig a little uncertain; you wanted to give him the option of choosing any action, regardless of town consensus. That line of discussion bothered me at the time, and I wanted to capture it here.

I have never argued Orig is definitely one thing or another. My view has changed over time due to certain arguments one way or the other. I don't pretend that I was initially correct, because more arguments came to light over time. The 100% is an assumption to ensure we acting on wcs scenarios.

But we have to look at the whole game here. You jumped on dybeck for many posts just because he used the terms "certain" and "100%" in making his arguments ... "a townie should never be 100% certain of anything," remember? And yet here you are in post 1228 using "100%" on originality. You didn't qualify that post as a wcs analysis. You were posting your scumdar ratings on all of the players. Do as I say, not as I do ...?

I feel like I am short-changing you by not responding with something equally as massive, but most of what I would have said, I said above anyway.

If there is anything in particular I have missed, let me know.

Please don't apologize for not replying at great length. I assume that at some point, you will get around to doing a PBPA of me, and you can return the favor then I don't necessary think we need to keep going back and forth on these points either ... I think that our players will be able to review what we've posted already, and come to their own conclusions.

I am not (despite how it may seem) trying to build momentum for a Vollkan lynch here. I am simply trying to point out that there is some cause to suspect you, just as you've pointed out that there is cause to suspect me. And given that you have been advocating a strategy for the town, I think it makes sense for each of us to ask questions on your possible motivations.

That being said, my fingers are sore and my eyeballs are fried. I'll check in sometime this afternoon.

[Gemelli]

-Why investigate originality?

His investigation of originality is off.

This bugs me too. I can, however, think of one plausible explanation of why he would have used a cop investigation on originality, but before I share it, I would like to hear Dybeck's plain and simple reasoning for his decision. He hasn't posted since your post, which bugs me as well.

*Side note interesting that he quickly unvoted Dr. BS under the guise of protecting town power roles, another Gemelli link.

I agree that this does strenghen the case for a Dybeck/Gemelli link, although to be fair: (1) five RL days passed between him voting Dr BS and unvoting, so it wasn't really all that quick, (2) he only cast three votes through all of D1, and the other two were for players who are now dead and confirmed town, and (3) he wasn't the only player advocating that we should not vote for claimed power roles.

This really looks like someone trying to pretend to be a cop that doesn't have the insight. Leaning towards SK here.

If Dybeck is scum, I think that SK is the most likely scenario, since practically everyone else in the game (aside from me) is ready to string him up Then again, that would argue against me being aligned with him, so people will have to decide which of those two arguments is most compelling.

-Why wait on bringing up your case on originality?

This has already been brought up, but dybeck did not even utter the word originality in the first RL week of this day.

Another excellent question. The fact that he attacked you over what he saw as a minor SK tell, rather than starting by asking orig questions, doesn't make much sense.

-Where is your case against originality?

While dybeck claims a guilty investigation on originality he has provided no new evidence against him.

Also true, although I can (maybe naively) reconcile this with a cop viewpoint. In that scenario, he already has all the evidence HE needs to make a decision on orig's alignment. Though as you and vollkan both point out, the better pro-town play would have been to try and gather more evidence by way of asking questions etc.

If you were in fact the cop and had a guilty claim on someone I would hope that you would be able to come up with some evidence for his guilt that other people had not talked about. Why else would you have investigated him?

Good question, and again, I'd like to hear Dybeck's reply to that question before I give my two cents.

-If you have a guilty investigation why offer to hammer someone else?

...

-Why did you claim prematurely?

...

-Why did you forget to vote for a proven killer you had a guilty investigation on?

...

-Why are you not providing more insight into who the scum groups might be?

All valid questions, and I sincerely hope that dybeck weighs in soon to provide specific answers. You've successfully brought my assessment on Dybeck back into the probably-scum category, pending his response.

[Gemelli]

Irony? It was misrepresentation. Understand that I am holding that against you. I have no clue why you would apologise for doing so.

The part of my comment that I would withdraw now is the words "all along," which I intended to be viewed as a variation of the cliche "oh yeah, I knew it all along" from a stock B-movie character who is trying to hide his ignorance.

It seemed that you only changed your opinion on CC after shaft.ed's post. That was all I was trying to demonstrate there. And you're right, I missed the latter half of 705 (focusing on the comments you made in the initial paragraphs instead).

I understand that you might find the arguments difficult to accept, but I know them to be valid and I have seen no argument against the conclusions I have formed based on them.

I can respect that. What I have a hard time with is that anyone who does not fall into lockstep with your arguments to be suspect.

Where did I say Orig cannot be scum.

5) You posted reasons why orig can't be scum? For real?!

YA RLY! And you still haven't rebutted them (hint: read post #993)

That is what I was reacting to.

On the fallacies, I have studied college-level logic and I disagree with you on all three of your rebuttals. But I don't see much merit to the town in having us debate the finer points of fallacy analysis here.

I am beginning to fear that I am falling in for a trap where cop-dybeck gets lynched and I emerge as the most likely suspect. For that reason, I have my eyes on you.

I'm honestly glad that you are suspecting me, as it shows that you are active in the game and are willing to assess less-obvious details. I would like to think that you'd grant me the same leeway. But you don't honestly believe in that trap premise, do you? That's more than a stretch.

[Gemelli]

In regards to him disproving dybeck's argument, I think you two are talking about different things. You refer to dybeck's argument as "Orig is scum because he killed CC." Vollkan refers to dybeck's argument as "Orig needs to be NK'd because he killed CC." there is an important difference.

I assume you meant "lynched" instead of "NK'd" there? But I think you've hit the nail on the head. I have believed that orig is scum since I joined the game, and some of my suspicions are based on the perception that Vollkan has been attacking THAT premise.

I missed this post earlier when playing catchup:

As far as who to lynch today, it has to be dybeck or originality. I don't know why other peole are supporting other somewhat random townies for lynch, especially one who is such a fan of numbers.

We know that dybeck and originality's claims are mutually exclusive, thus at least one of them has to be scum, and there is a possibility that they both are. Thus lynching one of them has greater than 50% odds of hitting scum. Anyone else in the town is much lower than this and thus should not be considered. Also even if we hit SK putting us in LyLo this is better than hitting town and being in 3:2:1 if we have a nonOrig SK.

That is exactly what I was trying to say back in post 1199! Of course, Vollkan FoS'd me for saying it (even bolding the sentence where I say what you've just said), but he was most likely influenced by the myriad scumtells I've given off today (Yeah, yeah, and you provided a better explanation. I'm just pissy today.)

I also posit that lynching dybeck has the possibility of providing more information of originality's alignment than lynching origanilty has on dybeck's alignment. If we lynch dybeck he comes up SK, we know orig is mafia and can then autolynch tommorow. If he comes up mafia then we know orig is either vig or SK. If he comes up town (which I doubt given his horrible cop claim) then we know orig is scum of some sort. If orig comes up mafia or SK we still don't know if dybeck is a cop becuase he could easily be faking the investigation given the info AlyG provided. If orig comes up vig we know that dybeck is either mafia or SK faking cop.

This type of analysis makes sense to me. Like you, I think it is entirely possible that both are scum, and hugely unlikely that they are aligned with each other.

I am also coming around to the argument that lynching the SK today would be bad for the town. That being said, if we are going push to lynch dybeck, we are all expressing a degree of confidence that dybeck is not the SK. Fair?

So really, if we are choosing between two targets, we have to ask ourselves: (1) which one will give us more info about the alignments of other players, and (2) which one offers the smallest risk profile for the town in terms of the scum night actions?

[Gemelli]

Actually, I do. As you say, nobody appears to be opposed to dybeck's lynch. Since I think Orig is the SK, that fact is one which points in dybeck's favour as being cop. When you look at things that way, the trap is actually a very plausible scenario.

This "trap" scenario relies on me being mafia, then? In that case, who would be my scummates? The names you've tossed out as possible collaborators with gemMafia are dybeck and Elias, right? So if dybeck's cop, who else am I mafia buddies with?

I'll just say it as plainly as I can: Vollkan, I am not trying to set a trap for you. I am trying to ensure that I perform the proper due diligence before I commit myself to a strategy that you are advocating. Personally, I have a feeling that I myself am now faced with a Catch 22 ... if dybeck comes up scum, I am fairly certain you will be going after me as his mafia buddy. But now you've posted that if he comes up cop, it is plausible that I have set a trap for you. I don't begrudge you your suspicions, but it is absolutely frustrating to get the sense that you will be going after me no matter what I do.

One final question for you (before we turn our attention to the actually important issue, who we're going to lynch today): why was it that when I advocated lynching either orig or dybeck, you FoS'd me, but when Elias made the same suggestion, you agreed with him? Was my wording THAT different from his?

[Gemelli]

EBWOP:

Mod

: Can I ask for prods of AlyG and Lucienne? We're close to deadline, and I'd really like to get meaningful input -- and ideally, votes -- from everyone before we hit Nov 8.

[Gemelli]

One final question for you (before we turn our attention to the actually important issue, who we're going to lynch today): why was it that when I advocated lynching either orig or dybeck, you FoS'd me, but when Elias made the same suggestion, you agreed with him? Was my wording THAT different from his?

Post reference/s?

Sorry, I was tired. Substitute shaft.ed for Elias.

My post with the part you bolded:

In any case, for me the matter comes down to a simple decision: do we believe originality, or do we believe dybeck? Given dybeck's breadcrumbing, and originality's scummy play at the very start of D2, I am more inclined to believe dybeck at this point.

I think that ONE of them is the right play today, for sure, and am leaning strongly towards originality at this point

Your response:

Gemelli thinks Orig is the SK. Fine, so do I. BUT, Gemelli also favours lynching Originality. In fact, he sees the fact that we lynch either of them as near axiomatic.

Lynching SKOrig places us in LYLO. For someone who has been so cautious all the way through things, this is a major slip.

FoS: Gemelli

shaft.ed's post:

We know that dybeck and originality's claims are mutually exclusive, thus at least one of them has to be scum, and there is a possibility that they both are. Thus lynching one of them has greater than 50% odds of hitting scum. Anyone else in the town is much lower than this and thus should not be considered.

Your response:

On the numbers, 3:2:1 is not significantly worse than 4:3; it is still LYLO. The only difference is that it is possible for a mafia lynch to result in a 1:1:1 wcs.

What I was reacting to is that shaft.ed and I both suggested that lynching either Dybeck or Originality as the right play today. When I did so, it earned me a FoS and was "a major slip." When shaft.ed did it, your only reply was to comment on the numbers. The big difference in our posts: I leaned more in favor of lynching orig, and dybeck leaned more in favor of lynching dybeck. Other than that, we made the SAME EXACT ARGUMENT.

Again, I'm utterly frustrated here. When I make an argument, I earn a FoS. Someone else makes the same argument, and isn't suspected at all. When I look at possible scenarios involving you being scummy, they are "baseless conjecture" and "complete rot." When you look at possible scenarios involving me being scummy, they are "quite plausible" and "not at all far fetched," despite both sets of scenarios being founded on the same type of basis: HYPOTHESES and GUESSWORK.

If you're going to hold me to a different standard of behavior than other players in this game, and you are going to point fingers at me for holding your posts to the same level of scrutiny that you apply to others, there is honestly no point for me to continue engaging in discussion with you. You've successfully pissed me off, congratulations. If you DO end up being pro-town in the end, you and I are going to have to have a long talk after this game about jumping to conclusions with both feet.

[Gemelli]

EBWOP: I agree with your definition of misrepresentation. I do not agree with the way you've applied it to my arguments for the most part. In some cases, your intent may have been "quite clear" to you (as the author of the post, I would hope so). It was not clear to me in many cases, and I saw some grounds for suspicion. I agree with Korlash's point: I think you make too many assumptions that certain of your premises are "obvious" and should be taken as absolutely true. Suspecting someone because they don't think the same way that you do isn't a reasonable way to play.

[Gemelli]

I read shaft.ed in a different way.

I thought he was simply stating that Orig and dybeck are more likely to be scum, without actually advocating for the lynch of both of them. The last sentence looked to me simply like he was saying that we should not consider anybody else to be of the same likelihood. This was why I responded with the numbers rather than an attack.

Re-read both of our posts. It looks to me like shaft.ed and I are both saying that one of the two players, originality and dybeck, is the correct play for today. Do you at least understand why this is frustrating to me?

I only called your misuse of quotes "complete rot" and I stand by that. I don't mean that as a personal attack. I simply mean that a number of your points were founded on misrepresentations of what I had said.

I absolutely agree that SOME of the points that I presented did not provide strong evidence. The post you quoted above is an example where I misunderstood your intentions. When you posted "if dybeck is the SK," this implied to me that you were seriously considering the possibility. If you weren't seriously considering it, fine. But this is a misunderstanding, NOT misrepresentation. It's only misrepresentation if I am deliberately distorting your views to further my own ends. And I think it's unfair to dismiss all of my findings as "misrepresentation" based on one or two instances where my reading differs from your intent.

If, by jumping to conclusions, you are referring to my attitude towards those who disagree with me on the SK thing, then I make no apologies.

I am referring to two things, both of which I think were demonstrated in your different reactions to the same argument being posted by me and shaft.ed:

(1) I think that you may have a tendency to make early judgements on players, and to allow your perceptions of those players to influence your interpretation of their content, and

(2) You have been assuming that people who QUESTION (not deny) your arguments are scummy. While I have some strong opinions in this game, I do not assume that people who do not agree with those opinions are necessarily anti-town. There is room for different perspectives and opinions among the town. There is nothing wrong with someone questioning my own arguments, no matter how strongly held.

This may come down to a question of play styles. It's frustrating to me because this is one of my first games, and I have been putting in a TON of effort to help the town out as much as I can. To have that effort twisted into further evidence of scumminess makes me feel that the effort just isn't worth it, frankly.

I am not ignoring your numbers. As I've said, the numbers look reasonable to me. But as a newer player, I do not want to assume that your numbers represent an ironclad pro-town strategy. I have been asking questions and thinking of possible scenarios in which those numbers could be pro-scum simply because I DO NOT HAVE THE EXPERIENCE TO FULLY EVALUATE THE NUMBERS ON THEIR OWN MERIT.

[Gemelli]

I got your prod strefflo and i'm here. Vollkan i'll answer your questions soon.

AlyG, we need a lot more than answering questions at this point. We need your input on ALL of the players in the game, and we need your thoughts on who the right lynch is for today.

It's been a long, long time since you posted anything with a substantial amount of content. Please: we need you to weigh in this week! Posting your scumdar ratings of everyone in the game would be a good start; posting your opinions on the cases vs. dybeck and originality would be another.

[Gemelli]

On that note, given our exchange, does the HoS stand?)

I am willing to drop it to a mFoS at this point

Additionally, it need not be conscious distortion. Cherry-picking quotes which meet a picture you are trying to pain also results in the same thing. In that case, the distortion is indirect.

Ah. IMHO the words "distortion" and "misrepresentation" imply intent. But that's subjective on my part.

I speculate on every possible option. At some points, I may get into my speculation and begin to reason within that speculation, making it look like an arbitrary change, but it is how I reason through things: By looking at every scenario and flowing with it. Similarly to me going devil's advocate on myself regarding Orig for a bit. I just wanted to see what the case was like.

That's a good way to play. It's really what I was trying to accomplish in your PBPA. To be honest, when I started considering the prospect of you being mafia, I got seriously paranoid because a meta read suggests that you are VERY difficult to read in that situation. I think that paranoia is reflected in the PBPA ... I have captured a worst-case scenario, but not really captured the positive contributions you have made to the game. That was unfair of me, and I apologize for it. Especially since I've accused you of doing the same thing.

(1) I think that you may have a tendency to make early judgements on players, and to allow your perceptions of those players to influence your interpretation of their content, and

That's not how I see shaft.ed's argument, remember.

I was more referring to your views on me. My perception was that you decided early that I was probably (55%+) scummy, and have been reading my posts from that perspective: focusing on suspicion and minimizing the merits.

If this is the case, I know precisely how you feel. I was not twisting what you said, and I find it rather odd that you would use that word choice. You attacked me with flawed points, misrepresenting me in effect, if not in intention. I cannot judge your subjective intention, so I can only go by the objective intention which is expressed in your words. That intention was one of contortion.

TBH, I think you did a bit of what you're accusing me of in your response: cherry-picked a few examples that counter-argued my suspicions. That's why I used the word "twisted." I think that the gist of the trends I observed -- being strongly focused on Dybeck through D2, being in near-lockstep with shaft.ed, resisting an originality lynch through D2 -- were worth pointing out. My methodology in drawing those conclusions, and my implementation in citing support for them, was sloppy.

Okay, so the main issue here is that you are not confident enough to judge whether or not the numbers are the result of scumvollkan trying to fool you.

That's exactly it. As I posted in (I think) my first major content here, I think you are either a valuable town asset OR a very dangerous scum. I mostly wanted to vent my paranoia and see how other players reacted.

As far as how to prove your arguments are valid to me, I don't think YOU can yourself ... but a consensus of players can. Does that make sense?

That's also why I've been so interested in hearing other people's perspectives on our lynching strategy for today. Here's what we've got so far:

Gemelli: Lynch either originality or dybeck
shaft.ed: Lynch either originality or dybeck, most likely dybeck
Vollkan: Lynch our best non-SK mafia candidate (dybeck)
Korlash: Leaning towards Dybeck or Elias
Elias: Leaning towards Dybeck or Korlash
Lucienne: ???
AlyG: ??? (most recent vote was Dybeck in 1102)
Originality: Lynch Lucienne (as of 1235)
Dybeck: Lynch originality

I have been pulled towards lynching dybeck as being the preferable choice between him and orig, since there seems to be general support for (or at least a lack of resistance to) the "lynching the SK would be bad for town" platform. But I want to reiterate this:

my level of confidence that orig is anti-town exceeds my level of confidence that he is the SK

. That being said, I am anxious to get input from everyone on what their preferred strategy for today is.

[Gemelli]

Shaft.ed: I think I understand the lynching-SK-is-bad argument, but thank you for offering to summarize it. What I wasn't sure about was whether it accounted for all of the variables in the game. The only way for me to gain confidence is for other players to post their input, like you've done.

I also understand that your post was much better stated. I didn't explain my reasoning well at all, and you did. So I can understand why he would have reacted differently, and I'm slowly getting over my pissiness

You're posting has not been wasted

Thank you. I absolutely needed to hear that the 3-hour PBPA exercise wasn't a complete waste of effort.

[Gemelli]

I don't think you are in any doubt as to mine: Lynch mafia. Dybeck is the most likely mafia. Therefore, lynch dybeck.

Yup, got it.

FWIW, the reason I'm sticking with the "lynch originality or dybeck" theme in the face of opposition is that, as shaft.ed posted, their conflicting claims practically guarantee that at least one of them is scum, and quite possibly both are.

I have been assuming that our hierarchy of outcomes for today's lynch, listed in order from most desirable to least desirable, is:

(1) Lynch mafia - yay for town!
(2) Lynch SK - results in LYLO, -1 power role D3
(3) Mislynch vanilla townie - results in LYLO, -1 or -2 power roles D3
(4) Mislynch power role - results in LYLO, -1 to -3 power roles D3

Right now, the main reason I am keeping orig in mind as a possible target is that I rate the probability of him falling into each of those categories as:

(1) 30%
(2) 60%
(3) 0%
(4) 10%

In other words, I am 90% convinced that he is either in the "most desireable lynch" category, or the 2nd most desireable lynch category.

For dybeck, I'd currently put the category probabilities as such:

(1) 55%
(2) 10%
(3) 0%
(4) 35%

In other words, I am 65% confident that he falls into one of the first two categories.

There currently aren't any other players who crack my 60% mark for falling into the first two categories.

So in a nutshell, what I've been struggling with is whether it's better to focus on the person who I think is 90% anti-town, or the person who I think is 55% mafia.

Now, if my priorities aren't right with those categories -- i.e., if lynching a serial killer IS in fact as bad as (or worse than) lynching a townie at this point, which I think is the point I'm still struggling with -- then it's clearly a different ball game. And I know that others would have different % ratings for orig and dybeck in each of those four categories. If you guys can convince me to weight the category priorities differently, or convince me that dybeck is more than 55% likely mafia, I'll come quietly.

And all that being said, I am absolutely coming around to agree that dybeck may in fact be the best lynch choice, pending his answers to the outstanding questions he has been told to answer.

Dybeck:

You've been given a specific list of questions to be answered TWICE now, once by shaft.ed and again by Vollkan. How did you miss the list of questions the first time? Are you just skimming this thread? Why aren't you replying to people's questions as they come up, rather than just asking everyone to sum up for you?

Given the impending deadline, and the town's precarious position, I would expect you to be more invested in the game at this point. I agree with shaft.ed: this does not seem to be cop-like behavior.

[Gemelli]

I believe I am leaning towards Dybeck or Orig. Which I know to be kinda contradictory, but I know one of them is lying and so if I should choose to believe Dybeck's claim I would vote with him, thus Orig. I have no intention of voting/lynching/leaning Elias at all... I thought I made hat clear when I posted my two different scumdars.. Guess not..

My fault; I was going off of post 1279 when I wrote that. So the updated chart is:

Gemelli: Lynch either originality or dybeck
shaft.ed: Lynch either originality or dybeck, most likely dybeck
Vollkan: Lynch best mafia candidate (dybeck)
Korlash: Leaning towards Dybeck or Originality
Elias: Leaning towards Dybeck or Korlash
Lucienne: ???
AlyG: ??? (most recent vote was Dybeck in 1102)
Originality: Lynch Lucienne (as of 1235)
Dybeck: Lynch originality

And, um, what's the vote count on Dybeck at this point? Is he back at L-1 again? If so, can I ask someone to unvote until we've had the chance to hear from our lurkers?

[Gemelli]

If there are 2 NKs, unless the situation is 4:1:1, then we have no motivation to lynch Orig since he could be the SK. He might also not be the SK but, you see, we don't know that and, thus, we can't lynch him. Hence, we are more likely to lynch elsewhere which places the hidden SK at risk himself. The SK needs to get rid of mafOrig.

I have a hard time following you here, Vollkan. Dybeck could also be the SK -- less likely than OrigSK, but still a plausible scenario -- does this concern you? In fact, ANY of us could feasibly be the SK. Saying "we don't know that [player X isn't the SK] and, thus, we can't lynch him" seems like an argument you could apply to eliminate ANYONE from lynch consideration.

My basis for not lynching mafOrig being bad is that the SK needs to NK mafOrig, or else the SK is gutting their own hopes of success.

Couldn't you make the same argument to argue that we shouldn't lynch mafDybeck, though? I suspect that regardless of whether he's mafia or cop, if we leave him alive today he's pretty much a goner tonight.

I'm not trying to be argumentative, just want to be sure that we've covered all of our bases as we head into the final week of discussions. I have become convinced that lynching the SK today would be bad for the town. But I am not yet convinced that we've taken the odds of SKDybeck into fair consideration, and it seems to me that the arguments of wanting to leave mafOrig and SKOrig alive are just as applicable if we look at mafDybeck and SKDybeck.

I'm fine with assessing lynch candidates using the categories I listed in post 1335. But I think that we need to approach this decision from looking at our candidates along three dimensions: (1) most likely to be mafia, (2) least likely to be the SK, and (3) most likely to be scum overall. Looking at just one of those factors independent of the others seems to give us a limited perspective.

I'd like to see assessments of originality and dybeck along those three lines over the next few days, if any of you are up for it. I'll put my own together and will post it when it's ready.

All of this discussion is honestly making me wonder if it's actually in the SK's best interests to claim now, since that guarantees town protection at least for today. I think this is especially true if Dybeck is the SK, since he is far and away the leading candidate for a lynch at the moment.

[Gemelli]

I see that shaft.ed already posted his responses to these, but what the heck ...

Sorry that I'm no longer really reading the thread... it's frustrating when a scum gets fingered by two power roles, and yet the town still refuses to lynch.

The problems we are having are that (1) only one of the power roles is confirmed in a meaningful way, and (2) the issues with lynching orig seem to stem from the probability that he is the SK. Do you not agree with the assessment that lynching the SK is as bad as lynching a townie at this point? If not, what is your counterargument?

1) Why investigate originality?

Seriously... why not? Who would you expect me to investigate? I had a quick readthrough, orig looked like he was going to be today's lynch candidate, so I thought I'd find out what he was. I really don't understand how correctly choosing a target is a scumtell. It's not like my claim is one of those "I'm a cop but oops sorry... I don't have any results for you" or "oops sorry... I investigated the dead guy". I have a concrete, take it to the bank, test my role for 100% certain tonight, role claim. Which you're ignoring.

Not at all. But there are some significant problems with your cop claim, which is what you've been asked to respond to. I did think there was one valid answer you could have given to this question, but you didn't give it. Based on how strongly you hounded my predecessor D1 -- one of the two players you acknowledge to have been hounding all of D1 -- I would definitely have expected you to investigate him over originality.

2) Why wait on bringing up your case on originality?

Why not? What the hell good would it do to bring it up first thing in the morning and have a 10-second day? We'd have nothing to go on tomorrow unless I got another good investigation.

No one is asking you why you held off on claiming and sharing your results first thing. Vollkan and shaft.ed are wondering why you didn't start asking pointed questions to originality until after AlyG made his claim. Instead, you spent the first part of the day focused on painting the "shaft.ed as SK" picture.

But seriously. I don't need to look for subtle scum tells. I have an investigation result.

But surely you understand the need to build a case to convince the rest of us? Don't you understand that the timing of your claim -- and now that I've read the morning of D2 in more detail, of your subtle cop-tells -- is suspicious?

If you had posted anything that hinted even in a cryptic, vague manner at a cop role in your posts prior to AlyG's claim, this would be a completely different discussion. Lacking that evidence, I think there is absolutely good reason to doubt your claim.

6) Why did you forget to vote for a proven killer you had a guilty investigation on?

Huh? I've been voting him like... all day...

That wasn't the question. The question was why you didn't change your vote to him immediately after you claimed.

As a side note, the same question could be asked of AlyG, considering that his Tracker claim in post 401 did not include a vote for orig. But the general scumminess of that claim has already been commented on.

7) Why are you not providing more insight into who the scum groups might be?

Actually, I've said repeatedly who I think the scum groups are. Over and over and over again. It's orig and korlash, with probably shaft.ed, with Lucienne as SK. Seriously, search my posts. I've said this a lot.

I thought you'd decided that shaft.ed was OK in a previous post? My perception was that you'd claimed that Orig/Vollkan/Korlash as the most likely mafia candidates. Since when did your opinion of Vollkan change, and why didn't you post it before now?

9) Why are you lurking?

I'm not really lurking, but I am pretty bored of reading the extensive posts in this game, that seem to revolve around shaft.ed desperately trying to save his scummate, and the rest of the town agreeing that lynching a scum is a bad idea.

If there's anyone "desperately trying to save" originality from a lynch, it's vollkan. Shaft.ed said that you OR originality is the play for today. And the argument that we're kicking around -- and you'll notice, we are NOT all taking this argument for granted; I have been taking plenty of heat for trying to poke at it -- is that lynching the SK has basically the same impact to town as lynching a vanilla townie.

The only number that matters is that if we mislynch today, we are at 4.3.1 going into night. If the SK hits town, it's game over. That's it. Bottom line. Any other maths you've read and believed detracts from this main story.

Although I'm not the most qualified person to distinguish which maths are valid and which aren't, it is telling that while shaft.ed and vollkan are looking at scenarios that extend beyond the morning of D3, you are looking at a single WCS that ends as soon as night does. And I buy the premise that if we lynch town today, the SK will probably not make a NK in order to keep his own chances alive.

11) Why do you support lynching Orig despite the numbers lying firmly against it?

Really, they don't. We cannot lynch town today.

Again, do you disagree with the argument that lynching the SK puts the town in the same position as lynching a townie? If so, please explain your thinking in more detail. It isn't obvious to me at all.

12) What was your basis for saying "the scum are most vocal"?

shaft.ed and korlash are playing this town like nothing i've ever seen. Read back for yourself.

That is the sorriest excuse for an answer I've ever seen on this site. Cite examples! Explain how their arguments are deceptive! Throw us a bone, any bone! Don't just say "it's obvious, go back and read for yourself." If it was obvious, there would be no need to ask you the question to begin with.

I've done my level best to suspend my disbelief, and considered the possibility that you are just being railroaded by scum, but you are absolutely not doing yourself any favors here.

[Gemelli]

Shaft.ed, that was a friggin' awesome post. You've taken what seems to be an even-handed approach, including scenarios in which you yourself would be suspect, and you haven't glossed over or sugarcoated the gloomy prospect of what it means if dybeck actually does come up cop.

As such, consider me swayed. Barring any earth-shattering revelations from Dybeck or our lurkers in the next few days, I am ready to add my vote for Dybeck, knowing full well that if he comes up mafia, I will myself be in the hot seat. I still don't think he should be at L-1 just now, but once we hear everyone's thoughts on the orig vs dybeck lynch options, I'm ready to pull the trigger with the rest of you.

And Lucienne, sorry to hear about your family emergency; I hope everyone is OK.

If you have a chance to post your thoughts before the deadline, even briefly, it'd definitely help. I honestly can't imagine that we'd be able to find a replacement AND bring them up to speed on the game in the next 6-7 days.

[Gemelli]

dybeck's actions are inconsistent with a SK. Think about it:
Drawing attention to himself; claiming cop dubiously.
He is playing in such a way that, if he were SK, would quickly cost him the game.

Don't get me wrong, he could be the SK BUT I think it significantly less likely than him being mafia.

I see where you're going with that, but again: one could say the same thing about orig, if to a lesser extent. I just want to be clear that we don't have any guarantees here.

That being said, I have been convinced me that dybeck is a smarter lynch choice for today. If he does turn up cop, as shaft.ed has pointed out, we will be in a tough situation D3. But I also believe that getting his alignment confirmed one way or the other is critical information that we really need in order to set a strategy for the next day.

So at this point I'm just anxious to hear what AlyG has to say, and ideally Lucienne as well.

[Gemelli]

If dybeck comes up cop, all we learn is that Orig is either mafia or SK.

That's all we will be CERTAIN of, agreed. But we will have a lot more information to go on as far as potential scum targets, as shaft.ed posted above:

If dybeck is cop:
I won't lie this would be a very bad situation for the town. We will know that orig is SK or mafia, but we will lose if we lynch him as SK the next day. We will also lose if the SK NK's town, but so will the SK so that should be ruled out. Likely scenario if this happens is town going into D3 in 3:3:1. If orig is mafia (which we won't know) scum group should be similar as above vollkan, me, maybe Korlash. If orig is SK I'm not really sure, but keeping the SK alive and lynching town is the best possible result for mafia today I would strongly suggest lynching myself or vollkan tommorow if this is the case. I'm not really sure what the scum groups would be in this scenario but as I said I think me or vollkan should by lynched in this instance. But we won't know if orig is SK or mafia.

It's the same type of situation we get regardless of who our lynch target is, and what their alignment turns out to be. We will have a small set of information proved/confirmed, and a larger set of hypotheses will be supported/countered. I thought shaft.ed did an excellent job of highlighting the potential lines of investigation for the town based on our possible lynch outcomes. And I think that we will have a lot more to go on from confirming dybeck's alignment than if we confirm orig's.

One question on your numbers: can you explain why 4:2:0 is LYLO? I understand that it's a bad situation -- a mislynch is mafia win -- but the difference between 4:2:0 and 4:3:0 is that in the former situation, a no-lynch extends the game for the town (though resulting in certain LYLO the next day).

Also, WRT dybeck's request, do we have any guarantees that this game includes a cop at all?

[Gemelli]

Gemelli, I feel you've been playing quite pro-town as of late but when reading these two quotes next to eachother it really looks to me like you're trying to help dybeck play find the cop

I never would have expected that interpretation, though your explanation of how you came to it makes a bit of sense. I read dybeck's post as basically saying "I have claimed cop, no one is counterclaiming me, therefore I am actually the cop," and I was trying to demonstrate that a lack of a counterclaim didn't actually substantiate his own claim.

I absolutely don't want any of our power roles to claim/hint/breadcrumb/whatever, and I hope you didn't think I was implying otherwise.

[Gemelli]

Well, thus endeth Day 2.

My scumdar (really quick, and off the top of my head):

AlyG = 10%
shaft.ed = 20%
Elias = 55%
Vollkan = 55%
Lucienne = 60%
Korlash = 60%
dybeck = 75%
Orig = 90%

Vollkan, I like the if/then analysis you did, but I don't have time to do it myself tonight. Will think longer and will post my thoughts when D3 starts up.

[Gemelli]

First off, yay for lynching Mafia!

I'm puzzled as to the mafia's choice of NK last night, though. We have a confirmed killing role and a confirmed tracker, and yet they chose to target shaft.ed? Yes, he was everyone's consensus for top pro-town player, but was he more of a threat than two confirmed power roles? I can't find any posts where he breadcrumbed or even implied cop. So something doesn't add up here.

I don't see anything compelling that makes me doubt Orig or AlyG at this point, but the fact that both were passed over as NK targets has me scratching my head.

I agree with Vollkan's analysis for the most part; since we got confirmation of MafDybeck, I was assuming that either Elias or Lucienne had to be scum, because:

* If Vollkan is mafia with Dybeck, he deserves an award for Endurance Bussing,
* Dybeck's apparent readiness to hammer Korlash suggests the two are not aligned,
* Originality is most likely either vig or SK, and in any case is almost definitely not aligned with dybeck,
* AlyG is almost definitely tracker; the only scenario in which he is feasibly mafia requires Orig to be mafia as well.

Assuming that there are either two or three mafia left, this leaves Elias and Lucienne as the most likely suspects from my perspective, with Korlash a distant third. For the rest of you, I should obviously be included in the suspect category.

To be honest, once we learned that Dybeck was mafia, I expected to have to spend a good portion of today defending my devil's-advocate support of Dybeck. If any of you have questions about my posts that you want me to address, please let me know; I will answer them as promptly and honestly as I can.

[Gemelli]

Hey guys, sorry for the delay. Weekend LA hitting me again as usual.

For now, my mafia-suspect list would be:

1) Elias
2) Lucienne
3) Korlash
4) Vollkan

I laid out most of my grounds for this ranking in post 1393. Most of my D2 suspicions of Vollkan, as reflected in my PBPA, involved the scenario that he was mafia setting up townDybeck for a lynch. With Dybeck confirmed as mafia, Vollkan's level of suspicion is dramatically lower for me at least.

Regarding the other players, I've been going with the active hypothesis that orig and AlyG are both confirmed town, I look at how Dybeck treated the remaining players in his posts, and I find the following patterns (see detailed PBPA at the bottom of this post for details):

Vollkan:

Regularly attacked him on D2 as probable/possible mafia, most likely grouped with originality and/or shaft.ed. Relented near end of D2, claimed he was more pro-town. I think it is exceptionally unlikely that Vollkan is aligned with Dybeck as mafia.

Oman/Korlash:

Regularly attacked him on D1 and D2 as probable mafia. Insinuated that he was paired with originality. Also argued that he could be SK. Strongly pushed for his lynch at the end of D2. I think it is quite unlikely that Korlash is aligned with Dybeck as mafia.

Lucienne:

Mostly ignored D1. Included her on suspicion list starting in post 888. Suggested that she might be the SK, but never includes her as a mafia suspect. I think it is feasible that Lucienne is aligned with Dybeck as mafia.

Dr BS/Gemelli:

Attacked strongly D1. D2, ignored me most of the day. Post 1247, starts advocating me as strongly pro-town. Had I not read my own role PM, I would think it was quite feasible that I am aligned with Dybeck as mafia. I am the only one with positive evidence that this is not the case, but I don't expect the rest of you to take my word for it.

Elias:

Never suspects him. Not even once. Responds respectfully to him once, asks for his help, enthusiastically welcomes him back, is "fairy happy" with Elias as pro-town, and gives him a 30% scumdar rating. THIS IS THE ONLY PLAYER REMAINING IN THE GAME WHO DYBECK DID NOT SUSPECT EVEN IN PASSING.

That's all I've got time for today. If you have any questions on my stance, please let me know and I'll respond as soon as I can find the time.

======================

DETAILED DYBECK PBPA:

95: Replies to Elias point questioning a scumtell. The tone of this reply is different to the combatative tone he's used in replying to any of our confirmed town players: almost respectful.

120: Tells shaft.ed that he thinks Dr BS would be a liability to claim with no provocation

145: "Oman and Vampaneze's attacks on each other look like two scum putting distance between themselves because it looks like one of them is gonna get busted."

150: FoS Oman

158: "If Oman and Vampaneze do end up being scum together, can somebody please remind me that spurgistan tried to set up a third bandwagon in post 153."

173, 207: Disagreeing replies to shaft.ed and CarrotCake

222: Tells Dr. BS that his play is "quite simply the scummiest thing I have ever read in all the time I've ever played mafia." Votes Dr BS.

233: Fishes for Dr. BS's role

237: Asks Elias if he is in the habit of lynching proven protown powerroles.

255: "Huh?" response to a Dr. BS post

261, 286: Disagrees with originality wagon. Claims that his two top choices for scum are Ryan (VH) and Dr. BS.

302: Votes Ryan.

361, 362: Votes shaft.ed, immediately unvotes.

385: Replies to Oman suspicion/vote of Dybeck, claims that we should focus on mafia and not on the SK

391: Tells Oman that none of his role scenarios are remotely likely

404: Replies to AlyG claim post by voting originality ... "It's not like we didn't think he was scum yesterday."

423, 426, 432: Continues to push orig=scum. "Certainly I don't think I want to lynch AlyG." "Originality - name me one single thing carrotcake said that made you think he was the most scummy one here - to the point where you would actually kill him. More scummy than Dr. Blackstrike or Oman, both of whom looked pretty scummy yesterday. There's just nothing there. You're totally lying and need to die."

433, 444: Argues that orig's vig claim can't make sense

481, 493: Continues to push orig

503: Starts to advocate orig/vollkan scum pair

541: Asks Elias for help

578, 582, 584, 586, 590, 592: More pushing on originality=scum angle

600: Accuses Vollkan of egregious misrepresentation. Wants to lynch orig.

603, 605, 626, 632: Pushing orig=scum, almost definitely mafia

634, 636, 640, 645, 647, 671, 673, 674: Numbers arguments. "There are only two moves today that cannot result in us losing tonight - lynching originality or going no-lynch." "I'm not sure about the SK - right now I'd lean towards Oman, but it could be anyone."

688: Top 3 suspects: shaft.ed, vollkan, oman

695: Claims that shaft.ed and vollkan are most likely originality's scummates

743: Claims that the town-consensus list will result in his NK. "Which means that tonight we're likely to lose originality to the other scum group and me to originality. Is there anyone unhappy with this?"

758, 761, 765, 767, 769, 776, 787: Fights with vollkan over why orig has to be lynched, and how the town consensus list is anti-town. Prefers giving Orig explicit instructions.

790, 792, 807, 809: More on how orig is obviously scum

832: Responds to my question on why Dybeck isn't acknowledging my presence: "What did you want me to say? I don't have any really strong opinions about you. You could be scum for all I know, but I think there are better lynch targets out there."

840, 845: More fighting with Vollkan about how lynching orig is the obvious play

849, 851, 853: More sparring with shaft.ed. Asks orig if he agrees with the no-kill approach.

855, 860, 869, 877, 879, 886: Argues against giving orig freedom to choose his action. Presses orig to commit to agreeing with town's consensus.

888: Posts new orig-action list: "1. No kill, 2. Oman, 3. Vollkan, 4. Lucienne"

890, 895: More in the 'Orig is scum' theme

901, 904, 922: Presses orig to agree to follow the town's lead

905, 911, 913: Asks Vollkan about the numbers. Suggests that a no-lynch might be a viable move.

940: Straw poll: "Who thinks I'll die tonight?"

951, 969: Switches back to the orig-Oman scumbuddy pair. Offers to hammer Oman. "If Oman and originality aren't scumbuddies, I'll be absolutely gobsmacked."

971: Now agrees that shaft.ed is genuinely pro-town.

973: Lucienne might be the SK

981: Responds to vollkan questions. "If I read back and ignore everything that's been said, but ignore posts by [vollkan], Oman, originality and Lucienne, it's amazing how pro-town this group of people looks." "We should be lynching Originality for being clear scum. However, Oman is probably scum too. I'm sorry that I'm the only one that sees any merit in lynching originality, but after 30 pages, I give in." "And hey Elias, welcome back!! I thought you were gone forever "

987, 992: Back to orig is obvScum

998, 1000, 1019, 1022: Responds to Vollkan's consolidated case vs. Dybeck. "I've stated categorically that I suspect orig, Oman and you are mafia and that Lucienne might be SK."

1047, 1074, 1076: Orig is obvMafia and should be lynched

1089, 1095: "OK well let's lynch Korlash. In any event we get originality tomorrow." Votes Korlash. "I think that his backing of orig and his continual failure to engage on the subject marks him as orig's scummate." (Note: Oman/Korlash never actually backed orig; orig backed Oman)

1138: "I'm still 70%-80% sure that lynching Oman would not be something we regret doing."

1150: "Yay! People are starting to look at lynches that are not me!"

1192: Claims cop.

1219: Belatedly revotes for orig.

1247: "I'm pretty happy with AlyG and Elias, and I'm fairly happy with Gemelli as it goes. I think the scum are some combination of the rest of you."

1252: "I think Originality is mafia with Korlash and probably shaft.ed, with Lucienne as SK."

1265: Lynching originality is not a bad play

1314: Won't answer questions unless they are consolidated

1347: New scumdar: "orig: 100% korlash: 90% shaft.ed: 80% Lucienne: 70% Elias: 30% vollkan: 20% Gemelli: 10% AlyG: 0%" "shaft.ed and korlash are playing this town like nothing i've ever seen. Read back for yourself."

1355: Long replies to a set of questions from me. Orig = mafia. "The players I believe to be scum are posting more than anyone else. It's just a fact. Strange that you should have a bigger issue with this answer than any of the others!"

1366: Asks the real cop to counterclaim to disprove his.

[Gemelli]

My Suspected Mafia

Elias_the_thief has obvious links to dybeck suggesting scum partnership. Korlash has been critical of my case on Elias, replaced the oh-so-scummy Oman and, moreover, I think that he may have been more linked to dybeck than we think. I intend to analyse this in detail, but I think that dybeck only really went after Oman when it was close to hammering time. There are other things, like Korlash being wishy-washy and stuff on dybeck at the end.

The Dybeck-Oman/Korlash pairing seemed unlikely at first glance, but I need to look over this again. To me, the only strong pattern coming out of Dybeck's posts was the consistency with which he treated Elias. However, I only reviewed those posts via the parser, and as such may have missed a lot of the interactions between him and Oman. I'm going to have to review the Elias/Dybeck/Korlash scumbuddy possibility in more detail. I'm particularly keen on reviewing (a) the case I originally made against Oman, and (b) Elias's response to that case.

AlyG

- I think it is safe to say that AlyG is a tracker. The only way she could be scum is if she was mafia with Orig. If that were the case, Orig would have to be mafia with dybeck which, of course, seems unlikely in the extreme.

There is (as shaft.ed pointed out) a tiny possibility of AlyG being a scum tracker. I don't think it's at all likely, but I wanted to toss it out there to ensure it's not forgotten.

Lucienne

- She is a lurker, she had no night action and shaft.ed was adamant in defending her. My gut instinct is that shaft.ed got an innocent on Lucienne N1 and that she is vanilla. I suggest you all look over shaft.ed's mentioning of Lucienne in the parser. She could be mafia with dybeck, but I currently think vanilla is most likely.

Now that is interesting! I'm looking over shaft.ed's posts on D2 right now, trying to figure out who's still "in play" from his perspective. So far, I find that:

* He seems to go back and forth on Elias, Dybeck, Originality, AlyG, and myself, so I am going to guess that he didn't investigate any of those players.
* He is generally supportive of Vollkan, but questions his alignment in several posts late in D2 (most notably post 1007). He may have gotten an innocent result here, but I think it's more likely that he did not investigate him.
* He is almost entirely negative in how he posts about Oman. However, in post 1042, he claims that Oman has refuted many of his arguments, and unvoted. As such, I think it's unlikely that he investigated Oman.
* He does not post anything suspicious of Lucienne at all on D2. He "doesn't have a problem with her" in 491, gets a "mild town vibe" from her in 614, wants to hear more from her in 1175, FoS's Vollkan and originality for the "Lucienne sidetrack" in 1294, discusses a scenario in which Lucienne would be shown to be very likely non-mafia in 1363. (Notably, he repeatedly goes after Elias for lurking but does not take issue with Lucienne doing the same -- different circumstances, granted, but possibly notable.)

From this, I conclude that the most likely scenarios are:

(1) Shaft.ed did in fact get an innocent result on Lucienne, or
(2) Shaft.ed investigated one of the townies who died N1, and simply didn't see anything suspicious about Lucienne

I'm willing to go along with (1) for now, which -- as you point out -- puts Korlash a little farther under the microscope.

originality

- Either vig or SK. Either way, he isn't our play for today.

Agreed. I'll do some more cross-player interaction analysis tomorrow, but right now I think our crosshairs are more or less aligned.

[Gemelli]

So to me it is between Vollkan, Gem, and Elias... So if you BOTH assume Elias is likely scum I have to take it as a good bussing from one of you, or you two ganging up on a suspicious towny...

Korlash, from rereading D2, I find it hard to believe that Vollkan is mafia with Dybeck. If they are aligned, Vollkan spent the lion's share of the day bussing his partner, rather than joining townie wagons. Sure, a mafioso COULD have done that. But it seems to me that you have to make all sorts of wacky suspension-of-disbelief assumptions if you're going to entertain the possibility that Vollkan and Dybeck were in cahoots. Occam's Razor and all that.

I will admit that I had plenty of reservations about Vollkan on D2, but most of them centered around the possibility that he was setting up townDybeck for a mislynch. With Dybeck now confirmed as mafia, it's a lot harder for me to view him as a serious scum candidate.

As far as you suspecting me, that's a different matter altogether. I am well aware that there are things I've posted that could link me with Dybeck. So I would be happy to respond to your suspicions if you would just tell me what they are

[Gemelli]

There is definitely some attacking here, but there are also a few kid-glove/distancing things.

The links between them are not as strong as dybeck-Elias; that much is clear.

Agreed. Once we get beyond that relationship, we end up having to do a lot of what-ifs. I see where you're going here, but right now (analysis still pending) I think that Elias is a much stronger candidate. Waiting to hear his responses.

I would agree with you that most of Korlash's case against you seems to be weak. I'm not sure if that is itself a scumtell, but I was obviously wrong about the scumtells you guys identified from Dybeck.

I'm not making the connection here.. how does her being an investigated innocent put me further under the microscope? Is it just that you have eliminated one of your suspicions and so the rest get more suspicious?

You were #3 on my list until Vollkan provided an excellent reason for me to bump Lucienne down. That moves you up to #2.

My suspicions of you... You more or less just said that out of my three candidates it is unlikely Vollkan is scum.. so I am left with you and Elias...

That is about it...

I'm not much of a case maker so I just try to put everyone else's together...

Well, if you're assembling cases from people that you believe to be Mafia, you are not doing yourself any favors.

Obviously, Vollkan's play style is based on high-volume analysis and dissemination of information. That's not your style, and I accept that. But as we're approaching endgame, I think it's in the town's best interest for you to start getting a little more specific in explaining why you find player X more scummy than player Y. You'll notice that whatever you might think of myself and Vollkan, we are both putting in the effort to explain each position on our scumdar.

You've indicated that you are going to do a reread of Vollkan -- stock up on Visine! -- and I think that's good. I'm looking forward to hearing your thoughts on me and Elias, too.

Something that occurred to me this morning as I struggled out of bed: we've identified three possible/likely power roles for town in this game (Tracker, Cop, Vig), as well as any other power roles that have yet to be revealed. If we only have three scum, is this a bit overpowered in favor of the town? Does this increase the possibility that there is a Godfather among the scum, or possibly even a scum power role?

The reason I ask is that the possibility of a Lucienne Godfather makes some sense to me, as it could explain:

* Shaft.ed's pro-town vibe on her (he investigates her N1, gets an innocent)
* Dybeck's treatment of Lucienne (does not mention her until 888, then starts claiming that she is the SK -- notably AFTER the town has started commenting that lynching the SK would be a bad play)
* Dybeck's treatment of Oman/Korlash (which could be bussing, but is in marked contrast with how he treats Elias and Lucienne)

I don't know how serious this scenario is yet, but I wanted to throw it out there while it was still fresh, and before the coffee wears off.

[Gemelli]

I'd like to extend birthday greetings to shaft.ed, our dearly departed cop. I will light a candle in his honor, hoping that the mystical aether will carry our goodwill to his spirit, and that in turn we will receive a message from beyond the grave about his N2 investigation result </joke>

Anyway, I've re-read my case and shaft.ed's case against Oman as stated in posts 1005 (shaft.ed) and 1055 (mine). The key points came down to:

* Oman's comments stating that "the town is strong" and that "the idea was that you'd catch scum without me" at a point where most of the active players had him listed as the primary or secondary suspect --> Possibly just semantics. Strange wording but not enough for a vote by itself, IMHO.

* Oman's heavy-handed bandwagonning --> A null tell? Oman does seem to bandwagon heavily regardless of alignment.

* Oman's listing AlyG on his "orig should consider killing" list before pressure caused him to switch it --> Fairly substantial. His responses to this point seemed evasive and unconvincing to me.

* Oman's rolefishing against Dr. BS in posts 239 and 242, combined with an attack on ryan for rolefishing in post 306 -- and all of this after explaining in post 218 that rolefishing is bad --> Significant. Reading posts 218, 239, 242, and 306 in order, you see Oman arguing both sides of the fence on the rolefishing issue. When he does it, it's OK because information always helps town; when Ryan does the same thing, it deserves a vote and is an obvious scumtell.

===========

The other thing I wanted to look at was Elias's response to these arguments. It turns out that he never responded to them at all; he was planning to (post 1037) but never got around to it.

Some other D2 posts of Elias's, for reference purposes if nothing else:

* Post 1021: Response to Vollkan's case against Dybeck
* Post 1035: Responds to Vollkan's theory that Elias might be mafia
* Post 1085: Long response to Vollkan post explaining the "lynching Orig is bad" position
* Post 1227: Response to Vollkan post: Korlash-Gemelli-Lucienne possible scum group
* Post 1255: Reacts to Dybeck's cop claim
* Post 1272/1274: More reaction to cop claim; Dybeck is preferred lynch
* Posts 1277, 1295, 1297, 1307: Back-and-forth with Korlash
* Post 1356: "Dybeck's scum"

As to D3 content, I wanted to respond to a few Elias posts:

Um...I was going off of your post's list of uncertains...if you look at that post, you already have dybeck written off as cop or mafia, which was my opinion at the time. I was simply speculating as to the uncertains.

But that's not what you said. You said "Assuming we have 3 scum, there is our scumgroup." You didn't include Dybeck in the equation at all.

Dybeck is an experienced player. Do none of you find it unlikely that he would purposefully NEVER post suspicion on me?

He may be experienced, but he was on the defensive for almost all of D2, having triggered the town's collective scumdar early. And you could just as easily ask the question: why would a mafia purposefully NEVER put suspicion on someone he knew to be town? The answer to both questions is probably the same: the "average mafia" would probably not "purposefully" do either thing. But the fact is, Dybeck has done exactly that. Don't you think it's worth speculating why he treated you differently than everyone else in the game?

[Gemelli]

EBWOP: The second Elias quote was from post 1426, not 1396.

[Gemelli]

Elias, since we're down to just seven players in the game, each of us is naturally coming under closer scrutiny from the others.

Believe it or not, I do find it plausible that you are pro-town and finding yourself in a bad situation. However, I think that if you ARE in that situation, you would serve the town (and yourself) best by advancing theories on who the remaining scum are. So far, you've defended yourself -- all well and good, but tell us, who SHOULD we be focusing on, if not you? If you were to place the rest of us in a scummiest-to-towniest list, what would the order be, and why?

[Gemelli]

OK. So far, it looks like most of the Elias/Vollkan discussion seems to boil down to whether there is or isn't evidence linking Elias to Dybeck. There hasn't seemed to be any discussion around posts of Elias that provide evidence AGAINST such a relationship, although it's possible I've just missed them due to work kicking my ass up and down the block today.

What I think I need to see is one of the following:

(1) A strong argument that provides evidence of why the Elias/Dybeck pair does NOT make sense, or
(2) A strong argument for why another player is a MORE LIKELY candidate than Elias for being scum with Dybeck.

I'd also like to hear from AlyG and Lucienne, obviously. Even a quick scumdar rundown from them would help quite a bit.

[Gemelli]

Does it bother you that the "evidence" towards me being with Dybeck depends entirely on wifom interpretation, and could mean entirely the opposite of the way Vollkan is interpreting it? (pretty likely, because I'm town). I'm starting to think you're our third scum. I've already presented evidence as to Korlash having ties to Dy, though nothing compared to what Vollkan did. Second, I'm pretty sure we're in LYLO here *at the very least, potentially). Are you really going to trust the game deciding lynch on the fact that theres nothing better then a weak connection case?

Appealing to emotion by raising the fear of a possible (improbable) LYLO, and by making a veiled threat to go after me as scum, does nothing to bolster your argument, nor does it affect my current perception of you. Let's move on.

Most of my suspicion against you boils down to the single key point we've been talking about since D3 started: Dybeck treated you differently than every single player remaining in the game. I think this is notable.

So far, what I've seen in response is conjecture on the other side of the fence: he COULD have been doing this as an elaborate plot to frame you. This is true. But it's just as plausible to me that he simply failed to bus you until he had already committed to locking in on Originality, at which point it was too late for him to switch gears without dooming himself.

I don't think this is an ironclad argument either way. What I'm saying is that it does create a serious level of suspicion in my mind that you may be mafia. While I agree that Korlash's behavior does inspire suspicion, I would not go so far as to say that the case against him is markedly stronger than the case against you. Both could currently be described as "weak connection cases" at this point. Fortunately, we're not under a deadline and there's plenty of time left to talk turkey.

One point that we haven't really discussed: you took the time to analyze and respond to Vollkan's consolidated case against Dybeck at some length. But you needed to be prompted to look at shaft.ed's summary case against Oman, and did not look at the additional points I raised vs. Oman at all (though you said you were going to). Again, one interpretation of this would be that you had a vested interest in poking holes in the Dybeck case, but didn't see any reason to interfere with the case against Oman. What is your side of the story there?

A few side points for other players ...

Korlash:

In response to post 1453, I don't think anyone is suggesting that the mafia has both a Godfather AND a roleblocker. I was simply pointing out that there is a possibility that one of those roles exists on the mafia side.

All:

I agree with Originality's point that shaft.ed had no clear reason to investigate Lucienne N1, based on either his D1 posts or the town consensus on the most suspicious players. I also agree that his behavior suggests that if he got an innocent result on anyone, it was Vollkan. But applying the same logic, why would he have investigated Vollkan's predecessor? Can we deduce anything about who shaft.ed might have investigated based on his D1 posts? (I do think it's safe to assume that whoever he investigated, the result came back innocent.)

[Gemelli]

Korlash: In response to post 1453, I don't think anyone is suggesting that the mafia has both a Godfather AND a roleblocker. I was simply pointing out that there is a possibility that one of those roles exists on the mafia side.

Couldn't they have both through? is seems like a likely possibility if we also have a doc....

Huh? I was responding to the post where you explained that it was unlikely that both those roles were in play:

Anyways from what I keep hearing is people are linking Godfather to Lucienne and some sort of RB mafia thing... In this situation I find it impossible for Lucienne to be the Godfather and for Orig to have been RBed... See, The tracker(alyG) went after Lucienne and got no result. So that means she did not RB, or do any night killings. So either A) We have two other mafia or B) The other Mafia did both the RB and the Killing, which I believe is impossible. Or is it? Not sure as I have literally never heard of a mafia RB before...

I read that as you saying that you didn't think it likely that we had both a Godfather and a mafia RB unless there are three mafia remaining in the game. What's made you change your mind?

All I was saying in my original post is that if there IS a Godfather, the cop would have gotten an innocent result from investigating that player. The Godfather typically sends the mafia's night choices to the mod -- which mafioso will make the kill, and which player they are killing -- but sending in a choice to the mod wouldn't trigger the Tracker ability, would it?

As far as other scum power role possibilities are concerned, the Wiki has a small list of common examples that you can review.

[Gemelli]

Hmmm... Ok... what about this then... Vollkan says Lucienne hasn't posted in X amount of time... So how can she be the Godfather? Question I would like Vollkan to explain seeing as how he "Knows" Lucienne hasn't been around for so long... seems like something worth investigating.

I think you're stretching here.

Vollkan "knows" that Lucienne hasn't posted in X amount of time because he can see the last time she posted in the thread, just like the rest of us can.

FWIW, I have seen Lucienne reading a thread in the Little Italy forum (I assume this one) at least once since her last post, so she hasn't dropped entirely off the face of the Earth. I'm not willing to discount her as a suspect just because she's playing with a low profile at the moment. That being said, she's still at the #3 position on my list unless Originality can tell me something about her that makes the case against her stronger than it currently looks.

As far as the likelihood of any of those roles existing, I don't think we have enough information to decide one way or the other. I'd rather not spend too much time thinking about all the possible permutations that could be in play, as I think that leads us to paralysis by analysis.

[Gemelli]

OK, this is just getting downright disingenuous:

I wasn't so worried about the mafia, although I am always in fear of them having a power role in these big games, like tracker or RB or something.

man two games in a row I hear Mafia RB.. weird... I need to look up these roles I think...

Also is there some other type of power role they could have?

In post 1167, you bring up the possibility of Mafia power roles, including tracker and RB.

In 1453, you suddenly act like the idea of a Mafia RB is new and foreign to you. In 1476 you lose a little more of the knowledge that you had back in post 1167, and now need help to think of other possibilities for mafia power roles.

Playing innocent, are we?

it just seemed like you all ran with the idea of a RB pretty quickly and didn't mention anything else... I thought it was a little weird...

In post 1480, you say that the rest of us "all ran with the idea of a RB pretty quickly" despite the fact that you're the player who has brought up the possibility more than anyone else in the game: 1168, 1452, 1479, and 1481. Since you've entered the game, the only other people posting about the possibility (Vollkan once, originality once, and me once) are doing so in response to a post from you.

This is all starting to look awfully contrived from where I'm sitting.

[Gemelli]

Um....Are you dense or something? How in hell is bringing up the possibility of LYLO an appeal to emotion in any sense of the word?

You're a debator, so I'm assuming you are familiar with this stuff. The fact that we may be in LYLO has no bearing on the argument of whether or not you are mafia. And thanks for the bit of ad hominem there, too.

The way in which it pretains to my defense is that in the case that we are that close to LYLO, the current case against me is not strong enough to take that big a risk. This is purely an assessment of the amount of danger town is in right now.

You're missing the point. If I felt that the case against you was strong enough, I would have voted for you already. Right now, I do not think the case against Korlash is all that strong either.

Also, my post was in no way "veiled threat". It was much more an indication that you are my number 2 in terms of who is likely to be scum. Honestly, are you just lying to make me look bad now or what?

OK, that's twice that you've mentioned me as a scum candidate now. And apparently I'm a liar for viewing that as a threat. Nice. Well, since you've brought it up, maybe you can explain your case against me? I mean, above and beyond the fact that I suspect you, obviously. Clearly you have reasons to find me suspicious; let's hear them.

Um...what exactly is the case on me besides the connection point? Essentially nothing, as you have just pointed out, besides that connection point.

We have:

(1) Dybeck's preferential treatment of you for the entire game, and
(2) Your different responses to the cases against Oman/Korlash and Dybeck

That's not "essentially nothing." We have exactly one scum player confirmed at this point. I believe that the best leads we can get should be drawn from that player's behavior towards others, and from others' behaviors towards him. Right now, the links between you and Dybeck are stronger than those between Oman/Korlash and Dybeck. Change my mind!

To say that the case on Korlash is only the connection case seems kind of makes it seem like youre overlooking a major something, and not accidentally either.

Another accusation. Are you implying that I'm aligned with Korlash, in spite of the fact that I was one of the people who presented the big D2 case against Oman and pushed most consistently for his lynch?

I'll say it again: I want to focus on people's ties to Dybeck first and foremost. Korlash's behavior is suspect, absolutely. But I find his ties to Dybeck to be more of a reach at this point than yours.

Really, I don't know. If there's anything I can say I have in this game right now, its a reputation of not living up to my promises. If I'm in the the mood to post, I will. But if I'm not, and promise content, I probably won't get around to it. Thats as good as an excuse as I can give. But let me say this: were I scum, I imagine that the most likely partner you guys would turn to would be korlash (for obvious ties to Dybeck equivalent to what I had, as well as what could be seen as distancing with me about the content). Now, were we a big happy mafia family, why would I ignore a case on one and attack the other?

Honestly, if you are confirmed as Mafia, I think it's just as likely (maybe more) that you and Dybeck are aligned with Lucienne, based purely on observed behaviors and the reasoning you've just provided.

does anyone think the way that Korlash came into the game seemed a little suspicious? His first real post in the game, 1087 I think (4th actual post if youre using the parser) he makes absolutely NO mention of any cases on Dybeck, but simply comes into the game with all guns firing at Vollkan. Am I the only one who is reads this as a big fat distraction? He makes mention of Orig also, a smaller issue, but ignores Dybeck all the way up until his 11th post, post 1125. Thats a damn long time. And even then, he only mentions him as a possibility of being Vollkans second scumbuddy. He continues to hole this opinion for some time, without ever really backing it up. In his 48th post, 1267, he lists Dybeck as only 45% chance of being scum, despite considering him an almost certain third member of the scumteam for some time. In post 1279, suddenly Dybeck is listed as his top suspect (with me alongside). Wait, I thought a second ago you just werent completely certain on his claim, and had him at 45%? Also, in 55, 1310, suddenly shafted is rated near last on his LoS, and several players below Dybeck on his LoS he lists stronger reasons for suspecting them. In his 59th, 1334, he finally votes Dybeck, for being unhelpful. Wow. Thats all for now, but does anyone else see a completely unexplained shift over to Dybeck being #1 as the town began to feel that way?

All good questions and good grounds for discussion. Korlash, how would you explain this?

[Gemelli]

You can say I am trying to look innocent all you want.. you brought it up... not me...

I raised the question of a possible mafia power role. You're the one who has been "running with" the idea of a roleblocker. And my main point is that you started the game talking about the possibility of a mafia RB or tracker, and later on acted like the concept of a mafia RB was new to you. That's what looks most fishy to me.

[Gemelli]

(1) We can split hairs all day on whether your posts are appeals to emotion and ad hominem. You posted that the case on you was not vote-worthy because we are in (or close to) LYLO. I viewed your post as being motivated by a desire to raise uncertainty about the case against you; you claim that your intent was simply to advocate caution. You claim that asking someone "are you dense" is not the same thing as telling someone "you are dense." (I'm trying to figure out how you came by that way of thinking. Are you syphillytic? Does mental illness run in your family? Were you dropped on your head as a child?) Ultimately, all I was trying to say is that I am not going to allow the specter of LYLO to influence my decision of who is the best lynch candidate today. Dead horse; needs no further beating.

(2) You said "I'm starting to think you're our third scum" when you were reacting to my suspicions of you. I called this a veiled threat because it looked very much to me like you were suggesting that you were going to start going after me because I was posting suspicions of you. If you're going to tell me that person A's perception of person B's actions are "lies" if they don't match up with that person B's intent, please make that explicit so that I can re-review your PBPA with that principle in mind.

(3) I agree that the points you brought up on Korlash are significant and need to be looked at. He is absolutely a primary suspect. But I described the Dybeck/OmLash relationship as "more of a reach" because Dybeck actively campaigned for Oman's and Korlash's lynch on both day 1 and day 2. In short, his behavior towards OmLash is similar to the behavior he exhibited towards Ryan on D1 (confirmed non-mafia) and originality on D2 (strongly suspected non-mafia).


In other news, I'll cut back on the hostile tone if you will. Deal?

[Gemelli]

Gemelli, you keep talking about "preferential treatment". Please define and give examples.

I was talking about two things:

(1) He reacted differently to the case you brought up against Dybeck (commented on it at length in 1021, said he was undecided on it in 1029, said it wasn't too convincing in 1035) and the cases against Oman that shaft.ed brought up in 1005 (said he would comment on it in 1037, never did) or that I brought up in 1055 (let pass with no comment at all).

(2) His overall behavioral trend towards the two players is different:

Day 1

Elias posted his only non-random vote of the game for Oman in post 49, and attacked him in posts 52, 58, 59, and 243. He did not acknowledge Dybeck at all.

Day 2

Elias made four posts in which he was noncommittal towards the Dybeck case (1021, 1025, 1029, and 1255), and three posts critical of Dybeck (1272, 1274, and 1356) after the town consensus was already strong. On that same day, Elias posted one noncommittal post on Korlash (1156), and six critical/confrontational posts against him (1225, 1227, 1277, 1295, 1297, and 1307).

Obviously the term "preferential treatment" is subjective, but I thought it notable that from a 10k foot perspective, Elias treated these players differently through the first two days of the game.

[Gemelli]

Sorry, got one of the #s wrong; 1025 should be 1035.

3) I'd like to see if it's a good enough case that I'd be willing to put my vote behind. At this point, I dont think I would.

I cited this as noncommittal because you used the phrase "don't think." But overall I would agree that this post is more critical of Vollkan's case against Dybeck, not noncommittal.

and I'm undecided AlyG.

This was a response to AlyG asking if you were going to stick with your vote on orig; the two major wagons at this point were Dybeck and Oman. I cited this as a "noncommittal" on Dybeck because of the context and because you were not stating an opinion either way. You could view this as a noncommittal on Oman too.

Gemelli: as for the Dybeck wagon/case, its alright, but its not too convincing. I would probably be willing to vote Dybeck at deadline, though I'd rather lynch orig who i think is certain scum. Also, I asked for Shafted to outline the Oman case, he never did. If you would be willing to, I'd be happy to listen and tell you what I think.

This is noncommittal.

My opinion on the dybeck claim? I dunno yet. ... I dont see any reason to seriously disbelieve his claim right now, so for now its a tentative yes.

This is noncommittal, leaning towards support of Dybeck.

And I cited 1272 as an example of you starting to turn on Dybeck, not an example of you attacking Korlash.

So if I update the first sentence after "Day 2" to read "Elias made four posts in which he was

either noncommittal towards, or challenging of, Vollkan's case against Dybeck

," do you agree that what I've posted is accurate?

In either case, I think this demonstrates that you have been inclined to act more favorably towards Dybeck than you were towards Oman under similar circumstances.

[Gemelli]

I specifically stated when I would vote for him and when I wouldnt...thats noncomittal?

Buh? "Not too convincing," "probably willing to vote Dybeck at deadline," "I'd rather lynch orig" ... where in this post do you state a strong point of view? And where are the specifics about when you would/would not vote for Dybeck?

How can I be noncommittal and support Dybeck at the same time. Please choose one, interpreting it as both doesnt make sense. For the record, I was saying yes I believed it unless I saw good evidence otherwise. Thus the tentative.

Now you're just being obtuse. Do you actually want me to parse that post into the piece that demonstrates your lack of commitment to an opinion, and the piece where you offer tentative support to Dybeck?

But no, I was swayed by Shafteds post, in which he provided very good reasons to doubt Dybecks claim. Can you not see how a townie is perfectly capable of making that shift in light of evidence?

Yes, absolutely; this is one of the many reasons I am not casting a vote yet. However, I can also see how a mafioso would be capable of turning on his partner when it's clear that the tide of the town is against him.

I am not going to get drawn into a multi-page semantics discussion with you about the definitions of "noncommittal" and "support." You have heard my opinion: in a nutshell, I believe that you have treated Dybeck more favorably than OmLash under similar circumstances. There are plenty of possible explanations for this behavior, but I am interested to hear what our other players have to say about this. I honestly don't think there is anything to gain from the two of us going back and forth any longer.

And FWIW, I have NOT made up my mind on you yet, regardless of what you might think. You'll know when I have come to a strong conclusion, because I will cast a vote. At this point, I am throwing out observations and opinions as they come to mind. Rest assured, I will be looking at Korlash's responses to the points you've raised in just as much detail

[Gemelli]

Korlash, now that Newbie 476 is completed, we have a good baseline to use as to how you tend to play/post as scum. I'll be looking for a completed game where you played as town, too.

We're all very, very interested in hearing your responses to the points that Elias has brought up on you, and in hearing your overall perspectives on player alignments as well. I think it's fair to say that we're in sort of a holding pattern until we hear input from you, Lucienne, and/or AlyG.

Elias: you and Vollkan mentioned a recent game where you both played with Oman (and you ended up being town). Which game was that? I'd like to do some meta-reading and that seems a good place to start; I've already read your posts from a few of your scum games.

[Gemelli]

EBWOP: Newbie 471 is a completed game where Korlash played as town.

[Gemelli]

Welcome back! Hope everything's OK with the family.

Since your last post, we lynched Dybeck (Mafia) and lost Shaft.ed (Cop) to a NK.

Any thoughts you have on the remaining players would be appreciated. If you have time to rank the players from scummiest to towniest in your opinion, that'd be great.

[Gemelli]

First off... My new "scumdar" More accurately termed "Suspiciondar"

That's great, but why couldn't you provide a scumdar as well? It doesn't have to be ironclad, and you don't have to be "committed" to it; feel free to annotate it all you like with caveats, rationale, and open questions. But it would be really helpful to see who's topping your current most-likely-to-be-mafia list.

2) AlyG- I cannot remember the last post I read from him... I would think he person everyone considers to be town would give his views/opinions about current events a bit more then he has been. I would like to hear his views on things also.

Concur.

Mod,

can I request a prod on AlyG? I'd like to get his scumdar to throw into the hopper with everyone else's.

So I find it necessary to list [Vollkan] high in my suspicions list even while I have no intention of Voting/lynching him.

Um. That does beg the question, "why the heck are you preparing this list, then?" What are we supposed to do with this information if it doesn't reflect people you suspect to be scum?

as a method of self preservation I would rank Elias high too simply because I would rather he be attacked them me.

I really don't like the way you worded this. Townies should be thinking of win condition first, self-preservation second. And there's no way you should be putting someone high on your suspectdar OR scumdar if you don't actually have a strong reason to believe they are Mafia.

FoS: Korlash

I very much hope that at least satisfies Vollkan for now because I do not want to argue with him over why I have not given my scumdar...

I'll save you the trouble; you can argue with me instead

I wanted to come into this game as a strong voiced player and I wanted to help move things along. I saw a few things I didn't like and I mentioned them.

I don't think anyone's raising eyebrows at you for that. What Elias pointed out is that when you replaced in, there were two major bandwagons in place vs. Oman (yourself) and Dybeck. You state in 1071 that you're going to read up on those cases, so you were definitely aware that Dybeck was a main suspect. But your first major post in 1087 dives right into Vollkan; you don't say anything about Dybeck at all.

You respond a bit to the case against you in 1105, and keep going on about how Vollkan and shaft.ed look scummy (and defending yourself from various suspicions). But you don't mention Dybeck at all until 1163, and that's mostly because you want to hear him explain his vote on you, in spite of the fact that you've acknowledged that he is a major suspect. Elias calls that suspicious, and I'm inclined to agree.

Don't get me wrong, you seem like a nice enough guy, but nice guys can carry tommy guns in violin cases just as easily as the jerks.

I thought I saw something Gem asked me before too.. but other then the Roles thing I cannot find it... If you will be so kind as to point out anything you asked me before I would be glad to answer it.

Nope, I just wanted you to post (1) a scumdar, and (2) responses to Elias's issues along the lines of what I posted above. And you're going to make both of those things a priority in your next post, right?

On another topic, it's been an atypical few days since Vollkan posted here. Does anyone know if he's OK? Should we be sending someone to check up on him at home? (Kidding; I know he's posting elsewhere on the site. Given the tempo he set earlier, it just seems odd for us to have these discussions without hearing regular counterpoint from him.)

[Gemelli]

I really don't like the way you worded this. Townies should be thinking of win condition first, self-preservation second. And there's no way you should be putting someone high on your suspectdar OR scumdar if you don't actually have a strong reason to believe they are Mafia. FoS: Korlash

I am thinking of the town here. If I am lynched, then that is one more town down. This gives Orig a greater incentive to NK. Meaning we could lose two more town tonight. And that is a loss. Now this is not ironclad what will happen. But I will fight tooth and nail to live today because I do not want us to lynch another town right now.

You missed my point. In your post, you said that you were undecided on Elias's alignment. But then you said that you would list him as a suspect in order to prevent your own lynch. THAT'S what I find dubious -- going after someone who you don't have a solid reason to believe is scum just to keep yourself from dying.

*shrugs* Do whatever you want. Until I hear form Lucienne I won't be posting an actual scumdar. So sorry.

OK. "Does not play well with others" *scribble scribble*

Well my post 1071 and 1087 were posted before I had finished my reread. At the time, I still found Vollkan the most likely scum in my opinion. After playing the game with him for this long I realize most of the things I felt at the time I no longer feel the same way. I didn't say anything about Dybeck because when I first joined in I thought I had a bandwagon on me at the time. I only later foudn out i didn't and Dybeck did. Personally i did not see anything to comment on at the time, and when I finished my reread it all blended into his vote on me/ his defense at the time.

I think you've slipped up here.

In 1071, you ACKNOWLEDGED that there were two bandwagons in the game: yours and Dybeck's:

Ok I thought I could maybe do a little input by reading from when these Dybeck/Oman bandwagons started, yet... That seems to be like... I don't know... Probably right after day 2 started...

So you clearly knew about both of those wagons before you started in on Vollkan (a day later in 1087).

Obviously, this means that your explanation above on why you didn't mention Dybeck until much later in the game is untrue.

I hate refusing your guy's requests over and over but I feel i need more from Lucienne right now.

It's OK.

Vote: Korlash

No hard feelings

[Gemelli]

OK. Things seem to be slowing down a bit, so I think it's worth reviewing where we are from a scenario-analysis point of view.

This will involve numbers, which makes me a bit tentative since Korlash is already standing by the airplane doors and threatening to jump, but here goes.

We are most likely at 5:2 (Orig=vig), or 4:2:1 (Orig=SK).

Given the confirmation of a cop and at least one non-mafia killing role, I think it's reasonable to assume that the Mafia has at least one power role among the two remaining players, whether it be Godfather, Roleblocker, Tracker, or something else.

Obviously, our best course of action once again is to lynch mafia. If my math is right, we can get away with a single mislynch OR a single misvig (results in LYLO), but not a mislynch+misvig (bcs LYLO, wcs 2:2:1). Correct?

I think there's a consensus that Orig is almost definitely not mafia, whether he's SK or vig. That leaves a pool of 6 players who may occupy those two mafia roles:

* Korlash
* Elias
* Lucienne
* AlyG
* Vollkan
* Gemelli

I've listed those players in my current order of suspicion. I am fairly confident that there is at least one mafia among the top 3, and probably two. AlyG could potentially be a scum tracker, and Vollkan could have arranged an elaborate ruse to drive a lynch of his mafia partner, but I think those scenarios are less likely.

Now: the mafia most likely left Orig alone last night because he did not pose an immediate threat to them. So first I would like to suggest that at a minimum, if we DO lynch Mafia today, Orig should be allowed to select a NK target at his discretion -- obviously, considering the input from all players first -- without fear of reprisal.

If we mislynch, it gets dicey. What should Orig do in that situation? I think that comes down to how comfortable the town is with its suspicions. Is it worth re-introducing the town consensus list idea? If the town has a general consensus on the top 3 most suspicious players in the game, is it worth having Orig take a shot at one of those players, even in the event of a mislynch?

I ask the question because I want to get input from the rest of you. It would be a calculated risk, but as it stands now, Originality's risk to Mafia is hobbled. I would be in favor of taking that risk, even though I think it's highly likely that I would be on the town's top-3 list.

Originality, if you could chime in at some point in the near future -- just giving your thoughts on the players as of now, and the cases against Korlash and Elias in particular -- it'd be appreciated. With AlyG's and Lucienne's continued level of participation in the game a question mark, we really need all the help we can get to move forward.

A few questions/comments for Korlash:

* If Orig and Elias posted updated scumdars, would you post one? AlyG hasn't posted on MS at all in 11 days or so. If your issue is that you feel singled out, would you at least play ball if everyone was being asked to do the same thing?

* Also, in your Elias-vote post, you didn't respond to the point I raised on you: specifically, that you have made inconsistent explanations for why you didn't look at Dybeck until late in the game. Did you have anything to say in response?

* If you ARE town, I can appreciate your frustration, but please don't hammer yourself. Suck it up and play the game! Convince us not to lynch you, or make a stronger case on another player! Don't put the town in a bad spot because you're getting frustrated dealing with our suspicions ... suspicions and rebuttals are what the game is all about, after all

[Gemelli]

Elias
Gem
Orig
Vollkan
AlyG

With Lucienne hovering in the top spot, but I could overlook lurkiness as "family emergency" and place her after Gem.

Thank you for posting that. Just to be clear, is this a prioritized list of Mafia suspects, or anti-town players?

* Also, in your Elias-vote post, you didn't respond to the point I raised on you: specifically, that you have made inconsistent explanations for why you didn't look at Dybeck until late in the game. Did you have anything to say in response?

No. i really cannot say anything but the truth. i was a little bit overwhelmed with Vollkan and my replacement reread. I know its sketchy but that is what happened, or how i remembering it happening...

It is sketchy, but you do get some points for neither trying to weasel out of it, nor for attacking me in response. Sadly I have to debit your account for calling me "Dybeck" in the quote.

I wasn't really going to hammer. I am not that much of an asshole.

Relieved to hear it The last thing this game needs is another Ryan.

Here, whilst it is true that Orig succeeding could cause us to win instantly, a misvig causes us to be at 3:1, where a mislynch will cause a loss, unless Orig survives in which case we can still win.

4:1 grants us the ability to mislynch (to 2:1) and then no lynch twice (3:1, 2:1).

I believe you meant that 4:1 grants us the ability to mislynch OR to no-lynch twice, correct? After a mislynch to 3:1, the mafia NK gets us to 2:1.

I can see the logic behind what you're saying. Essentially, if Orig makes a NK, he decides the fate of the town on his own. If he does not NK, the town gets to decide as a group.

The downside to going the no-lynch route, of course, is that it lets the Mafia decide which townies get to make the final vote that decides the game.

Basically, it seems clear that if we DO lynch mafia today, this will be the last opportunity for Orig to make a kill without potentially insta-losing the game for the town. The only person with the power to really decide whether it's worth the gamble is Orig ... whatever the town may want him to do, he's going to be the one sending the PM to the mod. I hope that he at least reads through this discussion very carefully, and asks questions if there are factors that he doesn't agree with or wants clarifications on.

And boy, do I hope that we don't really have two players AWOL at this point in the game

[Gemelli]

Mod

, can we have a prod on Originality too? It's been 5 days since he posted to ms.net, and if he's still with us I'd like to see his scumdar listing as well. (I know that he may be out for the Thanksgiving holiday, but let's at least let him know that we'd like his input )

[Gemelli]

Thanks, Orig, and glad to hear you're still with us.

So we've collected relative lists from the 5 most active players, and as Korlash said, there is a lot of similarity to look at. Because I am a statistics freak with no life to speak of, I weighted the lists together to see what the current town consensus seems to be. Here's how I did it:

* 7 points for each 1st-place vote, 6 points for each 2nd-place vote, etc.
* For Korlash's list, since positions 1-3 varied depending on where he decides to slot Lucienne, I split the difference between his 2 scenarios (e.g., he has Elias as either the 1st or 2nd place position, so I gave Elias 6.5 points for that)
* For Originality's list, I assumed that if the players beyond the three he listed were sequenced, they would be placed in an order approximating the average position of the rest of the town. (I'm the only one who was really affected by this, and it increased my scum rating, so I think it's a fair way to proceed.)

Here's what I came up with:

- Korlash: 27 points (average position: 2.6)
- Lucienne: 27 points (average position: 2.6)
- Elias: 25.5 points (average position: 2.9)
- Gemelli: 21.5 points (average position: 3.7)
- Vollkan: 14 points (average position: 5.2)
- AlyG: 14 points (average position: 5.2)
- Originality: 10 points (average position: 6)

Some other fun stat facts (none of which necessarily mean anything, I'm just looking for outliers and trends):

* Lucienne is tied with Korlash as the consensus scummiest player, despite having only one first-place vote (from Orig) -- this is because she was in everyone's top 3 except for Vollkan's, and because she has not provided her own scumdar (in which she would presumably rank herself last).
* Korlash was the only player to list Originality higher than the 6th position on his list (4th).
* Vollkan, AlyG, and Originality were not listed in anyone's top 3.
* Originality is the only player other than Korlash not to rate Korlash at the top.
* Elias is in everyone's top-2 lists except his own.

Raw Data:
========
Gemelli: Korlash (7), Elias (6), Lucienne (5), AlyG (4), Vollkan (3), Originality (2), Gemelli (1)

Korlash: Elias (6.5), Lucienne (6), Gemelli (5.5), Originality (4), Vollkan (3), AlyG (2), Korlash (1)

Vollkan: Korlash (7), Elias (6), Gemelli (5), Lucienne (4), AlyG (3), Originality (2), Vollkan (1)

Elias: Korlash (7), Gemelli (6), Lucienne (5), Vollkan (4), AlyG (3), Originality (2), Elias (1)

Originality: Lucienne (7), Elias (6), Korlash (5), Gemelli (assume 4), Vollkan (assume 3), AlyG (assume 2), Originality (assume 1)

Weighted Voting:

Korlash: 7+1+7+7+5 = 27
Lucienne: 5+6+4+5+7 = 27
Elias: 6+6.5+6+1+6 = 25.5
Gemelli: 1+5.5+5+6+4 = 21.5
Vollkan: 3+3+1+4+3 = 14
AlyG: 4+2+3+3+2 = 14
Originality: 2+4+2+2+1 = 11

[Gemelli]

Grr, crossposted with Vollkan. It looks like we're looking at this along similar lines; let me look at your summary and I'll post later tonight.

[Gemelli]

OK, I've got to dash now, but here's my two cents:

What I like about your approach is that you've gone ahead and assumed that every player will vote themselves last on the list. The thing I *don't* like is that calculating the points directly from the positions is that last-place votes are given more weight than the first-place votes, which is why I reversed the point order.

The only other things I'd change are:

* My list should be: Korlash, Elias, Lucienne, AlyG, Vollkan, Originality, Gemelli
* For Korlash, I agree that Lucienne is a 2, but I don't understand why there are two 2s and no 5s. It'd be easier if he'd just commit to a single order, but still

[Gemelli]

OK, thanks So your list is:

Elias
Gemelli
Lucienne
Orig
Vollkan
AlyG
Korlash

Correct?

[Gemelli]

OK, so you are less certain about your own alignment than AlyG's. Gotcha. I'm not here to judge you; I'm just the tabulator. And tabulate I will!

Anyway, factoring this latest data into the mix, the inverse-weighted point totals for the players look like this (where X is an unknown score from AlyG, Y is an unknown score from Lucienne, and we assume that each of them puts themselves last, since they aren't NUTS):

Korlash: 7+2+7+7+X+5+Y = 28+X+Y
Elias: 6+7+6+1+X+6+Y = 26+X+Y
Lucienne: 5+5+4+5+X+7+1 = 27+X
Gemellli: 1+6+5+6+X+4+Y = 22+X+Y
Vollkan: 3+3+1+4+X+3+Y = 14+X+Y
AlyG: 4+1+3+3+1+2+Y = 14+Y
Originality: 2+4+2+2+X+1+Y = 11+X+Y

If we assign the middle-of-the-road value 4 for both X and Y, we get:

Korlash: 36
Elias: 34
Lucienne: 31
Gemellli: 30
Vollkan: 22
Originality: 19
AlyG: 18

Still seeing general agreement among the top four candidates, with Korlash/Elias in the first tier and Lucienne/Gemelli in the second.

What does this all mean? Sadly, I screwed up my back about 2 hours ago and the muscle relaxants are finally kicking in, so I'm going to have to sleep on it.

V/LA over the next 3-4 days, but I'll try to chime in when I can.

[Gemelli]

2) Calculating from the positions is no different to what you are doing. It's just that my system has the highest scoring people being the least suspect. In your system, the numbers are just inverted, it means the same thing.

It only means the same thing when you look at a single list isolated from the others. When you aggregate the lists together, in your system each vote for "most suspicious player" has significantly less weight than a vote for "least suspicious player." That's what accounts for the differences in our lists; try calculating each value in your grid as 8-X (where X is the placement in a player's list) instead of X and see what happens. Whether you give each player a single extra point or not, and whether you add 0, 4 or any arbitrary number to each player's totals to represent AlyG's and Lucienne's input, does not really affect the sequence at all.

IMHO the higher positions in people's lists are what matters most, not the lower ones, which is why I chose the higher-numbers-are-scummier weighting approach. It's a minor difference in methodology, but I think an important one as it has a visible impact in the middle of the sequence.

2) @ Gemelli: Why does Elias merit a number 2 position on your list, and why do you find Korlash more suspicious?

The two are pretty much neck and neck in my opinion. Korlash gets the edge due to the problems I've discussed previously with Oman's play, and because his explanation for why he failed to mention Dybeck until late in D2 does not match with the facts as laid out in this thread. It's to Korlash's credit that he didn't try to justify this discrepancy, but called it a mistake. However, for posting something provably untrue, he gets my top spot and my vote.

The cases against Elias (yours and mine) haven't been disproved so much as minimized as "possible but certainly not definite." I found Elias's explanations to be overly contentious/defensive in tone, and I'm a little bugged that the amount of content he posts to our game seems to be directly proportional to the amount of suspicion that he's under.

And you didn't ask, but Lucienne gets my 3rd spot by process of elimination. I am inclined to believe AlyG's claim, I don't think you are Mafia, and Originality is most likely either the Vig or an SK.

Korlash, no time to reply to your scumbuddy hypotheses tonight, but I'll try to get to it at some point this weekend.

And yes, happy Thanksgiving to those of you in the States, or who are grateful for the good things in your life, wherever you are

[Gemelli]

Hey folks. Lots to reply to, but we have houseguests tonight and I'm going to have to be brief.

What problems with Oman's play? List them for me please.

I summarized my issues with Oman's play in post 1055, and summarized/re-rated them in post 1444. Oman dropped out before he got a chance to respond to my points, and I was not convinced by Korlash's attempts to rationalize the issues.

@Gemelli: Why did Lucienne drop back to number 3?

The man factor involved in Lucienne originally being on my #2 slot was my thought that Elias and Korlash could not be aligned with each other, given the high degree of their contention of their attacks against each other on D2. Since I suspected Elias at #1, I found it less likely that Korlash could be a suspect.

Since then, I've read through Elias's game history, and found that he has a history of successful bussing attacks similar in tone to the one he had with Korlash, making that less of a factor. There was also the point you brought up about shaft.ed's behavior towards Lucienne; she was one of only two players that shaft.ed did not find markedly suspicious during the game. Added to that, Korlash's behavior in D3 has been increasingly odd, particularly the points I brought up in post 1484 (changing from "I'm always worried about mafia RBs" to "gosh, Mafia RB? I need to look up these roles") and 1519 (stating that he knew about the Dybeck bandwagon in 1071, and planned to comment on it, and then in 1518(?) stating "I didn't say anything about Dybeck because when I first joined in I thought I had a bandwagon on me at the time.

I only later foudn out i didn't and Dybeck did.

" Making a provably untrue statement is a huge scumtell for me. That's what prompted my vote. I thought I'd explained that previously, but apparently I did a poor job of it.

Now, skipping right to the current stuff: I am seeing a pseudo-FriendOfScum tell in regards to Gemelli and Elias having Korlash at number 1 and each other at number 2. This is only compounded upon by Elias's latest thing talking about how if Korlash is scum, Elias is also.

Well, I know you've used the parser, so hopefully you'll be able to confirm that my focus on Oman/Korlash is not some Johnny-come-lately thing. He's been one of my primary targets all game. Elias has only come under my suspicion since we confirmed that Dybeck was scum.

And by the by, if people doing similar things is indicative of scumbuddiness:

I think if Korlash comes up scum, Gemelli is pretty certainly our scum.

Also, I think if Elias turns out scum, Gem is most likely his buddy.

The fact that those two posts come back to back like that may be a slip on their parts. If both are scum, they NEED to start making a strong case on me or Lucienne (the only remaining viable suspects).

Basically, the behaviour I am trying to understand is Gemelli suspecting:
#1 Elias
#2 Lucienne
#3 Korlash

And then having this somehow change to Korlash, whom now both Elias and Gemelli suspect.

Hopefully the above clears that up a little. All in all, I think you've raised some good points, and I hope you keep asking me questions until you've made up your mind on me one way or the other. I do encourage you to read through all of my contributions to the game to date, though -- from my admittedly biased perspective, I have tried my best to help the town after replacing into a bad situation. And I've tried to be as explicit as possible about my thinking as the game's proceeded.

If there are points I've missed responding to, please let me know and I'll reply to them as I'm able, LA notwithstanding.

[Gemelli]

Since then, I've read through Elias's game history, and found that he has a history of successful bussing attacks similar in tone to the one he had with Korlash, making that less of a factor.

examples?

The game of yours I reviewed to look for scum patterns was Newbie 330, where you and your Mafia partner dtsuei (and later his replacement Mitzef) go after each other fairly consistently for a good portion of the game. There may be other examples out there, but that was enough to convince me that you can be an aggressive busser as Mafia.

If you two are scum, then you have only 2 feasible targets today: Korlash and Lucienne. That puts you in a tight spot either way.

To me, that's a perfect description of the situation Mafia faces. The mafia need us to make two mislynches (or one mislynch, and one no-lynch or misvig) in order to win the game. The gambit of having one Mafia drive the lynch of his partner in order to bolster his apparent towniness would be risky, but assuming we have actually picked both remaining Mafia in our top 4 pool of suspects, that might be a risk they're willing to take. In order for that gambit to work, though, they would have to work to get one of their players down to the town's #4 choice of lynch or lower.

While I am more inclined to lynch Korlash at this point, as I said before, his edge over Elias is really not that big as far as I'm concerned. I am fairly certain that we DO have both mafia in the top 3 of our consensus list, and therefore at least one (and quite likely both) of the Korlash/Elias pair is scum. I would absolutely support a lynch of either player, and whichever of the two remains would be my default choice of target for D4, barring the introduction of new evidence.

[Gemelli]

Um ... it sure got quiet in here all of a sudden. Where'd you all go?

And IMHO it's a bad sign when the mod's comment on the possible replacement of a player is described as "a happier note."

[Gemelli]

Elias: if you've "heard all that you want to hear today," what's stopping you from placing your vote? The way you worded it -- "I'm probably going to place my vote on Korlash soon" -- suggests that you are still unsure. Are you? Why, or why not?

[Gemelli]

But you've been vocal about Korlash being your #1 lynch choice for a while now. So the "prospect of you voting" was there before you posted, and I'm not sure what sort of reactions you might have hoped to get from that post.

Actually, I just realized that you made the same exact type of post about six days ago, in post 1559:

I'm not willing to post much because im pretty sure Korlash is scum, and the only thing prompting me to post more is defense. I will probably vote kor tomorrow.

So you're *still* waiting for reactions? Despite the fact that everyone in the game has posted since Nov 22 except AlyG? That doesn't add up to me. At all.

Here, let's see what kind of reaction this results in:

Unvote; Vote Elias

[Gemelli]

I can't say definitively, because so far I haven't played as scum in any Mafia game. But from the reading I've done, I've seen scum wait until both their players are online at the same time, for example, in order to minimize the chances of someone unvoting and spoiling a lynch.

There might be other reasons, and I'll let someone with more experience than me hypothesize on what they might be. But you posted essentially the same thing in 1559 and 1582, and that make me think that you might be trying to send a signal to a partner. Your "waiting for reactions" comment from 1584 doesn't make any sense ... how would you expect people to respond differently than they did in the six days since you made post 1559?

[Gemelli]

First, you're voting for me based on the fact that I did something, when you can't find any concievable signifigant benefit scum from it?

No. I'm voting for you because I find your explanation of "waiting for reactions" to be contrived, given the fact that you've repeated your "reaction prompt" twice in six days.

Anyways, first, theres a difference between saying I'll vote soon and I'll vote tomorrow. Therefore, you get different reactions. The fact that I'm getting this kneejerk illfounded vote from you shows very well that I've received different reactions.

Serious hairsplitting on the phrasing point, especially since you obviously didn't mean it when you said "I'll probably vote tomorrow" six days ago.

And let's be clear: you didn't get a reaction from me because you worded it differently. You got a reaction (1) because you said the same thing twice, (2) because your explanation that you were waiting for reactions doesn't jibe with the fact that you said the same thing 6 days ago, and (3) because the combination of points 1 and 2 looks very much like an attempt to send a signal of some sort.

Also, once again it's worth noting that your posts in the game come few and far between unless you're defending yourself, at which point you start posting in batches. Are you scum hunting? Or just trying to save your own skin?

[Gemelli]

Gemelli, what are you trying to say here?

Elias didn't vote Korlash, on the basis he was looking for reactions. That isn't scummy. It's a complete and utter nullity. I admit, the reactions thing seems odd given the delay, but I don't see why it is scummy.

It's the same type of thing that caused my vote to go onto Korlash earlier in the day: strange actions that are backed by implausible explanations.

Any reactions he might have wanted to draw out from his gonna-vote-for-Korlash-soon announcement should have been apparent in the six days of real time that passed since he first did it. Every player in the game except AlyG has posted since that announcement. What possible new reactions could he hope to draw out by doing the same exact thing that no one reacted to previously? It just doesn't add up.

So I decided to fire a shot across his bow to see what would happen. Lo and behold, suddenly he's full of ideas and contributions to the game

Here's a fun fact about post 1582: this is Elias's ONLY post since D3 started that was not made in a direct response to a question posed to him, or a response to suspicions levelled against him. His case against Korlash was only offered when he was directly asked who his first choice of scum would be. Elias is not scum-hunting. He is engaging in self-preservation. His only contributions to hunting scum have been offered in order to distract from the case against him.

I note that Elias's lastest post is covering familiar ground -- complete with saying I sound stupid, and continuing to push the Gemelli/Korlash scumbuddy scenario -- and frankly I don't see the need to respond to any of it. I didn't join the game to participate in a hairsplitting battle, where you claim that the hairs YOU split are important and relevant, while the hairs that others split are stupid and meaningless.

I'm happy to respond to questions from the rest of you about my arguments. As I said earlier, I'd support a Korlash lynch if push comes to shove, but for now I think it's clear that the only way to get Elias to contribute to our game is to keep a little pressure on him, so my vote stays.

Anyway, that makes two for Korlash. I'd rather not leave us less than a week after Korlash claims (so as not to cause us to do things hurriedly), so would it be acceptable if Korlash were to claim in 24 hours? I agree he is most suspect and he would be getting my vote at deadline, but now that things are solidifying I think a claim soon would be useful.

Unless I've miscounted, Elias is at L-1. I wouldn't be averse to claims from both players, honestly.

[Gemelli]

The happier note was that AlyG has been prodded again. A replacement has been found, and I am waiting until Thursday.

Streeflo, you are awesome. Finding someone to replace into this game at 65 pages can't have been easy, but you nailed it. Nicely done, sir

[Gemelli]

I'm out of town on business, so I'm going to try to do a core dump on my thoughts tonight. With a little luck I'll be able to post again sometime on Friday, but it may be late Saturday before I check in again.

As a sidenote, I will not be able to post again til sunday.

In that case,

unvote

. No sense in risking a premature hammer, especially since a big part of my rationale in voting you was to keep you talking.

Elias, I agree, the case on Korlash is better. You were made to claim because of the numbers on you. Additionally (and I was waiting to see how this Gemelli issue unfolded), Gemelli's vote strikes me as dreadfully rushed. He has Kor at number 1 suspicion and then puts on his vote for you for this effectively semantic debate about you delaying your vote; the only change being that Orig cast his vote. I agree, your actions are odd, but I don't think they are scummy-odd. I'll admit here that I did think Gemelli's actions could be bussing of Elias, and I still consider it viable.

As I've said twice now, Elias and Korlash are very close to each other on my suspect list. I've been struggling to distinguish between the two players, and part of what I've been playing with is to see how each reacts to extra pressure. So I brought up things that I found suspicious about each player in turn, and voted. What I've found is that:

* Regardless of who I am voting for, Elias and Korlash have both continued to advance the prospect that I am scum with the other.
* Korlash's reaction to being voted for has been somewhat muted. He's seemed to deflate a bit, and only defended himself half-heartedly.
* Since D3 started, Elias has (with one exception) only posted to respond to direct suspicion of him. When voted or pressed, he posts multiple times in short succession, and becomes argumentative and hostile. When there is no pressure on him, he does not contribute to the discussion.

The first point is the one I find most interesting. I am assuming that at least one of the Elias and Korlash is Mafia. But both are pushing a case against me at this point. The tenor of the cases is different -- Korlash's case boils down to a simple process of elimination, whereas Elias's case seems to be based purely on my posts directed to him. However, both Elias and Korlash have made the statement that "if [Elias/Korlash] is scum, Gemelli is most likely scum too." I'll come back to this in a second.

Now I do not expect any of you to take my statement that I am pro-town as a given, but it is absolutely driving my perspective on what we should do D3. Let me explain.

First, I put it to you that if we have NOT identified all of the Mafia in the top four spots on the consensus list, we will most likely lose the game. There is significant reason to look at myself, Korlash, Elias, and Lucienne as Mafia suspects at this point. If Vollkan, AlyG, or Originality are mafia, then frankly I think they have outplayed the town well and truly already, and our chances of winning will come down to whether a rogue Mafioso makes a major error near the endgame. Because that's a depressing (and I think unlikely) scenario, I'm not going to focus on it. I do think that we've pinned the Mafia in our top four, and I think that our consensus list reflects that this is most people's opinion.

Now: from my perspective, there are not four probable candidates for Mafia ... there are three. This is a perspective I assume is shared by the other pro-town player remaining among the four top suspects.

The town can make one mislynch without putting the Mafia in position to win.

Therefore, from where I stand, the best course of action for the town is to lynch the top three players on the suspect list one after the other.

Assuming that two of those players are mafia, and the other is town, this wins the game for us at the possible cost of a single mislynch.

Now, for those of you who have me at #2 or #3 on the suspect list, I don't expect you to buy into this approach I'm just trying to explain why I've been going back and forth between Elias and Korlash on D3. I believe that at least one of them is absolutely scum. If we push to lynch one of them, and that player is confirmed pro-town, to me the conclusion would be that Lucienne is the final remaining scum. I assume that the other pro-town player in the top four has a similar perspective, but with my name substituted into the mix.

That being said, I've put myself into a tough spot. Since I've made a commitment to being an active poster in this game, I have given the Mafia more content to attack, making me an easier target to take the rap. And because I have pushed on both Korlash and Elias in turn, I have left myself vulnerable to both of them on two fronts. When I voted Korlash, he implied that I was doing so in support of my scumbuddy Elias. When I voted Elias, he implied that this was clear evidence of my scumbuddy alignment with Korlash. And lately it has been suggested that my focus on Elias OR Korlash is simply bussing. I don't think I can continue posting my opinions without continuing to draw this kind of heat from one side or the other, but so it goes.

Anyway: unless you are willing to accept the possibility of three mafia remaining in the game, it should be obvious that either Elias's or Korlash's scumbuddy hypothesis is false (I surely can't be scumbuddies with BOTH of them). If one of the two is scum, that player is clearly trying to set me up to take a fall as the most obvious pro-town target.

Coming back to the point I made earlier, the fact that BOTH Elias and Korlash are taking the same stance on me suggests that the odds of them being aligned with each other are fairly high. And if we agree that at least one of the two players is scum, I think it's worthwhile to lynch them both in succession. If one is town, the other is guaranteed to be scum. Again: if we limit ourselves to no more than one more mislynch in the game, we win.

Again, that's just my perspective ... I'm interested to hear reactions from the rest of you. Except for the scum

[Gemelli]

If Orig is SK, then there may only be 1 mafioso left, however. I think we should remember that.

To be honest, I hadn't considered that possibility. If we have just one Mafia left, things do become more complicated. How likely do you think that situation is?

Obviously, your course of action would work. As you say, though, it assumes you are pro-town which is not something I am willing to do.

Understood. I'm just trying to explain why I've been switching back and forth between targets.

Why does it make it highly likely that they are scum together?

Maybe "highly likely" is an overstatement. But I find it notable that neither of them is taking the position of "if player X is scum, that means that either Gemelli or Lucienne is scum." They're both zeroing in on me specifically. It just looks to me like a concerted effort to move me into the #2 spot on the suspicion list.

[Gemelli]

Break in between meetings!

Your course of action, rather interestingly, assumes unquestionably that Orig is a vig and that we have 2 scum left. If Orig is SK, things are very different and simply lynching as you are suggesting to eliminate people is absolutely dangerous.

No, I've been assuming that Orig is either vig or SK, but not mafia, and that therefore he still has a vested interest in killing mafia at this point. But yes, I had been assuming 2 scum. If having just one scum is even a moderately plausible distinct possibility, then obviously my plan needs to be scrapped without further comment. (As an aside, we haven't really looked at the 6:1 or 5:1:1 scenarios in detail yet, have we?)

spurgistan has risen from the grave to replace AlyG!!!

Welcome back, spurgistan!

Mod

, can you verify that he is up to date on all AlyG's night actions and results?

[Gemelli]

Thanks, Spurgistan; you've anticipated my next question and gone a long way towards alleviating my minimal doubts on your alignment. Looking forward to hearing your thoughts on the game when you've finished your skim.

Now you know why I wanted to hear from Lucienne. Her lack of activity hurts us here... Thus... we are more prone to go after you.

I don't follow you ... I'm more suspicious than Lucienne because I'm posting regularly, and she isn't? If you believe that her lack of activity is hurting the town, why the heck does that make you more inclined to go after me?

[Gemelli]

Can you explain how that works? My doubt revolves around the prospect of Spurg being a mafia tracker (unlikely as that may be). I don't see why Spurg's post eliminates that possibility.

It doesn't eliminate the possibility; it mitigates it somewhat. The way he worded his post implied that he'd also had some doubts as to whether AlyG had been telling the truth.

As for 5:1:1,
Maflynch = 5:0:1. We lynch Orig. Easy. However, the problem here is that we have no way of knowing whether it is currently 4:2:1 or 5:1:1. Thus, this is not a situation we can plan for

For mislynch,
Mislynch = 4:1:1. It is most likely mafia will try and get rid of Orig and that Orig will try and get rid of the mafia, leaving either 3:1:0 or 4:0:0, the former being more likely.

Aren't we in the same situation in a Maflynch vs. a mislynch? If we mislynch, no one except the mafia will know if we're at 4:1:1 or 3:2:1.

[Gemelli]

Just as a reminder, we've got just four days until our deadline (

Mod: is there a specific deadline TIME as well?

). Which makes me a bit nervous, since we just went 36 hours without any posts.

If we're going to reach a consensus on a lynch for today, I'd much rather it be something that we all have a chance to discuss, rather than a rushed decision on the 8th. Especially since my availability on the 8th will be limited as usual on the weekends.

At this time, I am well and truly undecided between voting for Elias or Korlash. Every time I re-read this game, I go back and forth between those two. I'm still FAIRLY confident that one of them is mafia, but with the possibility of only one mafia remaining, my level of confidence has dropped. The only other player I'm considering as possible Mafia at this time is Lucienne.

Part of the problem I'm having now is that there are so many scenarios to consider for the # of players remaining in each category. Possibilities that have been thrown around include:

(A) 4 Town, 2 Mafia, 1 SK :: Means that the initial setup was 8:3:1
(B) 5 Town, 2 Mafia :: Means that the initial setup was 9:3
(C) 5 Town, 1 Mafia, 1 SK :: Means that the initial setup was 9:2:1
(D) 6 Town, 1 Mafia :: Means that the initial setup was 10:2

If we can eliminate one or two of those setups from serious consideration, it might be easier for us to decide on a course of action. (D) seems like an obvious candidate to be discarded, for example. Much of our planning to date has focussed on (A) as a worst case scenario ... the question is, how likely do we think that scenario actually is?

From an inexperienced player's POV, given that we have two confirmed power roles (tracker, cop) and one wildcard power role (SK or vig), I would place the likelihood of the scenarios in order: C (most likely)-B-A-D (least likely).

What do the rest of you think? And how do your setup assumptions influence your thoughts on how we should proceed over the next few days?

[Gemelli]

So there you have it. Korlash comes up trumps in all 3. Thus, he will be getting my vote today.

That's a compelling argument. Obviously, from my perspective the possible scumpairs are quite a bit simpler:

Korlash/Elias
Elias/Lucienne
Korlash/Lucienne

But if we need to account for the possibility of a Mafia singleton remaining, I think that your questions (1) and (2) become more important for today's lynch. I agree that Korlash gets the edge on (1), with Elias getting perhaps a smaller edge on (2).

I still dont see why you can value the Gemelli/Korlash team so low, especially after gems incredibly dumb vote on me right after I got one vote, especially when he continued to rate korlash number one and me number two.

Elias, if it turns out that you actually ARE town in this game, please come back to this post when it's over. Taking a hostile, condescending tone in posts like this -- and not for the first time this game -- may go a long way towards explaining your poor record in games as town.

Your "case" against me has boiled down primarily to the fact that I'm suspicious of you, and putting pressure on you to contribute to the game. (If there are other things that cause you to suspect me, please do us all a favor and make them explicit.) I have a strong hunch that if someone was pointing a finger at you using the same type of argument that you're using against me, you'd throw a fit and call it a WIFOM-based weak connection case. I know myself to be town, but I certainly don't assume that people who suspect me are scum just for posting their suspicions.

Anyway, please go back and review my posts from D2. I stayed pretty focused on Oman as a prime suspect from the moment I entered the game. And I kept after Korlash after he replaced in, though I treated him differently as he has a different posting style. If you look at the whole game, I am pretty damn sure that there's more evidence AGAINST the Gemelli/Korlash pairing in this thread than there is FOR it.

And seeing as Gemelli and korlash are almost certain buddies (and least from my perspective) then you can guess where his vote will be going. It comes down to spurg, and a lurker. Great.

Since D3 started, I placed two votes: first on Korlash, and then on you. Both were pressure votes designed to elicit reactions. Hell, just a few hours ago, I posted that you and Korlash are pretty much dead even on my list. In my opinion, I've treated the two of you pretty much equally today, and I am at a loss as to why you've ignored all of my D3 play that hasn't been directed at you. You're either scum trying to save his own skin by throwing suspicion onto a townie, or a townie with a serious persecution complex. Trying to decide which explanation applies to you has been incredibly frustrating.

In the end, there is enough doubt in my mind about your alignment that I think I will probably favor a Korlash lynch today. I've read a few more games of yours, and the sort of rampant hostility you've displayed here seems to be something that shows up when you play as town, not so much when you play as scum. (Which, again, may be something to think about if you'd like to improve that town record ) As of this moment, I think that Korlash is a safer bet as our D3 lynch.

Anyway, so far I don't think that there has been a case against you raised by Gemelli. Indeed, he had Korlash in the lead. Unless he can explain properly why he suspects you more, I will not accept a vote for you from Gemelli.

I don't suspect him *more*. But I don't suspect him *much less* than Korlash at this point. Rest assured, if I do end up voting for him instead of Korlash, I will summarize the points I've raised throughout D3. Basically, my case against Elias comes down to the points I raised in posts 1424, 1444, 1488, 1496, and 1597.

Vollkan, you seem to be implying that if I vote for Korlash, I wouldn't need to justify myself. That seems ... odd. In any case, my case against Korlash is captured in the points I raised in posts 1444, 1484, 1509, and 1519. Again, if I end up voting for him (as seems likely), I'll summarize the key points in my vote post.

Gemelli is usually a fairly well-reasoned player, so uncharacteristically poor stuff (such as we have seen of late in respect of his vote on you) will be noticeable.

The votes I cast for Korlash and Elias today were for identical reasons: trying to elicit reactions to help me make up my mind. I'm curious as to why it was "uncharacteristically poor" for me to apply this tactic to Elias, and why it wasn't notable when I did the same thing to Korlash. But that's a discussion we can have when the game is over; I don't think it would do anything but distract us from the matter at hand at this point.

12:01 Sunday would be the deadline.

Thanks, but in what timezone? GMT? EST? I don't mean to be pedantic, I just want to be sure I don't make bad assumptions.

[Gemelli]

To be frank, I don't think rudeness is a scumtell anymore than poor punctuation is a scumtell. It's an ad hom point (attacking rudeness, not Elias calling the vote dumb), unless you actually explain why scum are more likely to be rude than town. "Dumb" is not the most helpful explanation, but I know what he meant since he already explained his problems.

Oh, I'm not trying to say that rudeness is a scumtell. What I'm saying is that it's a lot harder to talk/work/scumhunt with someone who's actively insulting you. I'm also frustrated that he has yet to substantiate his suspicions of me, yet continues to press the ScumMelli possibility as a near given from his POV. While I don't think this behavior is necessarily a scumtell, it sure doesn't seem to be pro-town. Hence my suggestion on playstyle and his town record.

I'm not personally inclined to see your attacks on Korlash as evidence against a scumlink. I mean, unless Lucienne is scum, there has been bussing amongst the scum. Thus, I restate: any combination of the four seems plausible to me.

Fair enough. I'm not asking you to eliminate it as a possibility; I just hope you examine my history (especially as it relates to Oman/Korlash) and decide for yourself how LIKELY it is.

Why Lucienne?

I was reacting to Elias's argument that since he treated the cases vs. Dybeck and Oman differently, an Elias/Dybeck/Oman scumgroup didn't make sense. So I pointed out that if Elias IS confirmed as Mafia, that line of thinking would argue more for Lucienne as the third Mafia, since Elias had treated Dybeck and Lucienne about the same at that point.

Much as I had problems with your vote's explanation (though, it does appear to me to be a pressure vote, which makes sense), the waiting thing was weird. I don't know if it was monumentally scummy. Certainly something to keep in mind, though.

The waiting thing was minor at best. I was looking for a pretense to apply pressure, and the double-post presented itself. IMHO the important point from that post was actually in the 3rd paragraph you quoted: I find Elias's failure to post ideas, opinions, etc. unless he's being attacked very strange. Again: if it's not a scumtell, it's certainly not pro-town behavior.

[Gemelli]

Elias, I'm absolutely done trying to talk to you. You're a self-righteous, arrogant prick, and the entertainment value I have been getting out of this game has been almost entirely sucked away by reading your snotty, hostile posts. If this is how you get your rocks off, great, but I want no part of it.

I'm not going to pull a Ryan here, nor am I going to ask to be replaced, but I have better things to do with my free time than act as a sounding board for some random misanthropic Internet asshole. This will be the last game I play with you, and very likely the last game I play on this site. You can have your "playstyle," and I'll spend more time with people who don't think being a dick is something to be proud of.

[Gemelli]

Elias, I absolutely overreacted, and I apologize for that.

I agree that it was obnoxious of me to critique your playstyle, as this is just my second Mafia game (and I was killed N1 in the first). I was trying to explain what it is about your play that makes it hard for me to believe you are town, and reacting to your earlier post about being frustrated by your bad town record. I could have worded it differently, and I won't presume to offer you advice again.

Vollkan, thanks for the compliment, but I think it's clear that I let this game get under my skin. I enjoy the investigative aspect quite a bit, but the mudslinging aspect isn't something I can get into. I don't think I'd be a very good Mafia, basically I'll sleep on whether I'm going to keep playing or not after this game ends, but I certainly don't think I'm going to put this level of effort into a game again.

[Gemelli]

Ha! Korlash, you kill me. This is the most contrived explanation I think you could have come up with.

I'm pretty sure that we've assessed the mafOrig possibility to death, and I think that possibility is remote in the extreme. If Orig was Mafia, when AlyG tracked him, Vig was the worst thing he could have claimed: RB would have been a safe claim. The consensus coming away from that discussion was that Orig was either Vig or SK, but not Mafia. We discussed this well before you replaced in, so I'm not surprised that you missed it.

Vollkan's right: one of the two of you is definitely Mafia. Those are easy odds for me to play. Thank you for making our deadline choice easier.

Vote: Korlash

Besides that I am getting serious town vibes from Gem *Puppy eyes* He is sooo awesome... I <3 him sooo much...

Yeaaaah. Dybeck did the same thing to me on D2 just before he got lynched (though without the Liberace-esque over the top approach). It didn't fly then, and I don't think it's going to fly now. Time will tell.

Vollkan:

Assuming that the Mafia may repeat their gambit of last night -- ignoring the claimed power roles and focusing on eliminating the consensus "most likely pro-town" player -- I believe that you are in danger tonight. The good news is that this would be highly risky on the Mafia's part: with a limited pool of potential Mafia to choose from, there's a very good chance that Spurgistan will strike gold with his tracking. Then there's the possibility that Originality will take a shot tonight, regardless of what we want him to do. So the Mafia would be taking not one, but two chances by targetting you, but it's still a possibility. I'd like you to consider mitigating this risk by summarizing lines of investigation you'd like us to pursue if Korlash comes up mafia vs. SK.

Spurgistan:

Have you had a chance to catch up? I'm interested in hearing your thoughts on the events of D3.

[Gemelli]

When we reviewed shaft.ed's posts, we found that during D2, he rarely mentioned Lucienne at all, and when he did he seemed inclined to give her the benefit of the doubt. For most of the other players in the game, shaft.ed at least poked and prodded them from time to time with suspicions. But he did seem inclined to trust Vollkan overall.

I think it's fair to assume that whoever he investigated on N1, he got an innocent result, because he remained open to pursuing various lynch targets during the day. But I didn't see any cop breadcrumbs in his posts (even after the fact when I was actively looking for them), and it's possible that he was playing it low-key to stay alive.

As far as Korlash goes, the only thing I think is in his favor of his most recent claim is that Oman's play did at times seem consistent with that of an SK (I think I mentioned that on D2 at some point). But when you look at the scenario we're in, where either Originality or Korlash is definitely mafia, I think it's harder to make the case that Originality was aligned with Dybeck than it is to make the case that Oman/Korlash was. If Orig was killing on behalf of the Mafia, why would they send their most suspicious player to make the kill? And when AlyG tracked him, why didn't he claim RB instead of Vig (thereby painting a target on himself for the SK)?

[Gemelli]

Woo hoo, two down!

With the Originality Vig/SK wildcard wrapped up, it seems most likely that we're looking at a 4:1 setup. Which ought to make things quite a bit simpler.

Spurgistan:

Who did you track last night, and what were the results?

And welcome to the game, ABR. What's your take on the players that are remaining?

[Gemelli]

FoS: Gemelli

for celebrating after a night where the vig died.

I'm sorry that we lost Originality, but we were in a situation where he really wasn't able to vig without putting us in jeopardy of LYLO. There was also some uncertainty over whether he was a vig or an SK, and having him confirmed has simplified our assumptions about how many scum/town/other we have remaining.

Of the 6 players remaining after we lynched Korlash, there was a consensus that Vollkan is almost definitely town, Spurgistan is most likely town, Originality was either Vig or SK, and there is most likely one Mafia remaining among these three: Gemelli, Elias, and Lucienne (now you). It was obvious that the remaining Mafia wasn't going to touch the other two players in the group of three, leaving a target of Vollkan, Spurgistan, and Originality. Having Originality NK'd means that the spectre of "what if he's a SK" is no longer going to be held over our heads.

Spurgistan, I had assumed that if you tracked one member of the "group of three," that would eliminate that person as a suspect. I'm not sure what the benefit of keeping mum on your result is, but I'm sure you'll let us know eventually. Right?

[Gemelli]

Vollkan, that approach makes sense to me. It strikes me that the only real risks to the approach are that:

1. Elias is in fact an investigation-immune GF, or
2. Either you or spurgistan is actually mafia

I am willing to take the group's collective word on whether (1) is likely or not. I do not believe that (2) is likely at all at this point. As such, as long as we're all generally confident that (1) is not the case, I think Vollkan's approach offers us an excellent chance of securing a town victory.

My preference would obviously be that we lynch ABR before me, but I'm not overly concerned about the order as long as we're all generally comfortable with the assumptions above. And I am OK with claiming, either individually or en masse.

[Gemelli]

In the event that the consensus is to go along with Vollkan's plan, and that I am lynched before ABR, I look forward to proving you wrong, Elias

[Gemelli]

EBWOP: Sounds like that's three in favor of Vollkan's plan. Spurgistan, ABR: are you OK with it?

[Gemelli]

Let's face it, there is an element of risk regardless of what plan of action we take. We have to make assumptions in order to move forward.

I am comfortable assuming that:

* We are currently in 4:1
* If Vollkan is Mafia, he spent nearly all of D2 and D3 pursuing lynches of his scummates
* If Spurgistan is Mafia, he is a Mafia tracker and 2/3 of Mafia were holding power roles
* If Elias is Mafia, he is an investigation-immune GF or there is another Mafia RB

Once again, it all comes down to Occam's Razor for me. From my perspective, ABR is the one player remaining who does NOT have a solid counter-argument to being Mafia.

I know that all of you will have to ask yourselves whether there is a reason to doubt that I am Mafia as well, and once again I'll do my best to answer your questions. But I'm not worried about being lynched if you all agree that Vollkan's plan is the way to go; it seems that having my identity confirmed would be a step towards the town's victory condition at this point.

[Gemelli]

OK by me. It's not just that the thread is 70 pages; it's 70 pages that practically drip with thick content. Let's be humane about it.

And for the record, my claim ... Dr. BlackStrike's chaotic feints and hints were pure bluff. I am a vanilla townie who harbors a bit of hostility to the player he replaced.

[Gemelli]

Considering that we only have two unclaimed players left in the game (you and ABR), why not? I don't think it's strictly necessary, but I'm curious anyway.

[Gemelli]

Well, let me make my opinion on our best course of action official, seeing as ABR already did the same:

Vote: ABR

It seems most likely to me that Lucienne performed the shaft.ed kill, and Korlash RB'd AlyG from making the track. From a metagame perspective, the fact that Originality was killed last night also seems consistent with the actions of someone who had just replaced into a long game -- ABR might have had the information that Originality had claimed Vig, but not the information that the town was on the fence over whether he was a Vig or an SK.

If you look over Originality's posts from yesterday, he did not seem to find me or Vollkan suspicious. His top suspect was Lucienne, with Elias and Korlash as runners up. So I ask you: were I actually Mafia, why would I have chosen a NK target who (1) did not suspect me himself, and (2) was suspected as a possible SK by the town? I would certainly have prioritized Spurgistan (tracker with a good chance of targetting me) or Vollkan (most active player with an aggressive scumhunting style) as a NK over Originality, a player who supported me and who could have been a lightning rod for a future town lynch towards endgame.

Anyway, for those of you who are still trying to decide between me and Lucienne/ABR, I hope you at least keep in mind the contributions each of us has made to this game. Heck, you can use the parser to look up what each of posted to the thread, and when -- the parser that I wrote because of this game, and shared with its players, specifically because this game was already large and unwieldy by the time I replaced in, and because I wanted to arm the town with what I thought would be a useful scum-hunting tool. What would be the motivation for me to share the application with you guys, or even let you know that it existed, if I was scum?

Looking forward to seeing how this all plays out ...

[Gemelli]

This is interesting - Gemelli is showing a real self-preservation interest. Gemelli, if you are town, we have won already. It would be nicer to win today than tomorrow, but the ultimate outcome remains the same. Thus, I don't understand why you are arguingabout yourself being less scummy - to the point of this weak "If I were mafia why would I....?" about the parser.

Mostly, I'm just struggling to understand what it is about my play that's got me so high on people's scum lists. At this point, Elias, Spurgistan, and ABR all have me at the top of their scum lists, but no one is explaining why. It's frustrating, that's all.

But yes, assuming that we have actually identified the last Mafioso within the group of Gemelli-ABR, it does not matter which of us goes first. Since I am 80% sure of that premise, I'm comfortable being lynched -- it will admittedly be nice to be able to demonstrate that Elias has been utterly, tragically wrong about me for weeks -- though I'd rather go for the player who is most likely to be scum from my POV first, if only because that 20% uncertainty remains.

[Gemelli]

EBWOP: regarding the Orig NK possibility, I would agree that it's conceivable, but is it *likely*? Again: please review Originality's posts from D3. Look at who he suspected, and look at what he said about me specifically. I understand that this is WIFOM, but I am trying to explain what I think is wrong with the MafMelli scenario. To echo your questions to spurgistan: what would TownGemelli do in this situation?

[Gemelli]

And Elias: *what* connection to Korlash? You've said it a few times, but IIRC you've never explained what links us together.

Again, it doesn't really matter much at this point. I'm just curious and a bit baffled.

[Gemelli]

Woo hoo! Nice play, guys Glad to see we pulled it out down the stretch,

Streeflo, nice setup and good job modding. And Elias, no hard feelings

This was my first complete Mafia game, and I'd be interested in hearing any of your thoughts on what I could do differently next time.