Newbie 1732 [Game Over!]: InnocentVille

[shannon]

I thought this was a bit weird at the time and now I think it's weirder given no-one died overnight, so here's a recap of D1 lynching. The quotes are spoilered in the bottom. This wasn't meant to be a massive post but it just grew that way.

408 - I respond to Jibs' question about the lynch pool, stating I'd like to lynch one of AF, 0x40, and Chrimi.
409 - Chrimi votes AF
410 - PP votes 0x40
411 - Jibs votes 0x40 and declares it L-2, questions whether the TNE wagon has scum on it
414 - Jibs suggests it's too easy for scum to hammer their buddy because we all want the day to end
415 - I say I'm waiting for the VC before I vote (implied: I want to vote 0x40 but don't want to accidentally hammer)
417 - vote count shows L-2
418 - Lengthy post by Implosion about how we need to consolidate votes on one person (it's this that twigs me, see below).
419 - Implosion questions 0x40
422 - I vote 0x40 (L-1)
424 - Chrimi gives intent to hammer

Going back to what I hinted in 425, I think Implosion gave his write up about consolidating votes as a signal to Chrimi to move to hammer 0x40 (he'd voted AF in 409 and then gives intent to hammer 0x40 in 424). We were already naturally 'consolidating', 0x40 was at L-2, and I'd said in 415 that I wanted the official VC before voting, i.e. I didn't want to accidentally hammer, so my intention to vote him to L-1 was clear. So what was the point of Implosion's post about consolidating, other than to signal a scum buddy that hammering was OK? Why did implosion basically tell us to stick with the wagon in 418, ask heaps of question of 0x40 in 419, and then not vote?

Bolded in here are the weird bits of implosions posts for me:

Spoiler:

I'm kind of stuck in confbias mode on imp right now. Before I opened the thread I was thinking "if imp digs in his heels on pp then he's mafia, but if he reevaluates then he is also mafia". I'm suspicious of the fact that he never reevaluated his townreads on me and 0x40--players who came into the game very strong and then dropped off rather conveniently.

I do want to re-evaluate you.

I still feel like 0x is probably town a bit more strongly.

But I mean, I'd

like

to re-evaluate all my reads - it's just a matter of time. I'm in my third week at a new job and am still settling in to an extent to my new apartment, so

I don't have a ton of free time

- certainly enough to play, but

not enough to re-evaluate my reads quite as much as I'd like to

ideally. It is also d1 and re-evaluating reads is usually more useful on later days when there are flips for context.

(snipped the rest, irrelevant)

Actually scratch me being more confident on 0x than on you. I'd say you're two of my weaker reads at this point.

I think if I go with my gut at this moment the people I have no interest in lynching today are shannon, af, and chrimi.

Here comes the change of mind, now Implosion is 'around' the 0x40 wagon but not voting him for pressure

0x's jibs scumread actually feels more off to me than his chrimi read. It feels similarly like he's just latching on to something and pushing it, but it feels more like he's doing it because he's realizing people aren't interested in the chrimi push or like he feels like he's supposed to have more than one scumread at this point. It just doesn't feel like it evolved naturally

.

Not really speaking as IC

but this is advice that's generally applicable to a lot of games:

We are starting to close in on deadline (4 days away with a replacement pending) so it might be worth it to start consolidating votes soon, within the next couple of days. It's at the point where we're not going to get a ton out of continuing the day, and I think we're going to be better off if we end the day soonish.

I think I mentioned it earlier but a lot of the stronger players on MS are of the opinion that towns often tend to drag days out longer than necessary, which can lead to apathy. This is especially true d1 when we're dragging out the day with no flipped information.

Looking a bit more at 0x

he went from slight town to "scummiest by far" on jibs in the span of 8 posts and jibs mentioning the possibility of a policy lynch in passing. Actually,

@0x40: is there any reason other than the "nice to policy" post from Jibs that caused this shift from you between 237 and 245? Because you had been calling him town, then suddenly call him the scummiest player in the game in 245 seemingly for one thing, and then six posts later in 251 you suddenly have a plethora of reasons for scumreading Jibs that seemingly weren't influencing you at the time when you posted 237. You heavily cite his reads list seeming overconfident, but that same reads list had already been posted when you made post 237, yet you were calling him slight town at that point. I'm curious about the mental process behind your read on Jibs forming in that span of time.

I also want to look at Jibs' question, whether the TNE wagon had scum aboard, but I don't really know where to go with that. Maybe someone else can help? The wagons for reference:

TNE wagon - AF, Rocnix, implosion, Chrimi
0x40 wagon - TNE, PP, Jibs, shannon, Chrimi

Based on what I've said, I'm going to VOTE: Implosion

Here's all the posts I referred to in my big list above

Spoiler:

Jibs - Regarding the lynch pool.

To narrow it down, I'd like to lynch within the round robin, excluding TNE because his response to the wagon on him seemed so towny. So that's AF, 0x40, and Chrimi. I think that we might get useful info by picking one of these, since there's been a lot of interaction around them.

I am back and forth on Jibs and Implosion. They're both a bit too smooth for my liking, and I can't tell their alignment. Certainly, a flip from them would be revealing in some way, but I'm not sure whether it's worth the risk because they'd both be great assets to town *if* they're town.

I can't support a lynch on TNE (as above), or Rocnix (because it would just be policy at this point).

Jibs - Regarding the lynch pool.

To narrow it down, I'd like to lynch within the round robin, excluding TNE because his response to the wagon on him seemed so towny. So that's AF, 0x40, and Chrimi. I think that we might get useful info by picking one of these, since there's been a lot of interaction around them.

I am back and forth on Jibs and Implosion. They're both a bit too smooth for my liking, and I can't tell their alignment. Certainly, a flip from them would be revealing in some way, but I'm not sure whether it's worth the risk because they'd both be great assets to town *if* they're town.

I can't support a lynch on TNE (as above), or Rocnix (because it would just be policy at this point).

Sounds good to me

VOTE: AF

Looks like Rocnix isn't coming back, and we won't get a replacement until D2. I will not support a TNE lynch, and I'm hesitant on Chrimi and AF. I'm willing to pursue Jibs or 0x40. Jibs has been more involved, but to what end...I don't know.

UNVOTE: Rocnix
VOTE: 0x40

Hello all.

VOTE: 0x40. I believe that is L-2.

pp: do you think the tne wagon had scum on it? I believe it was AF, Rocnix, implosion, Chrimi, and myself at the end.

tne: same question.

Chrimi: you still tne+af?

Hello all.

VOTE: 0x40. I believe that is L-2.

pp: do you think the tne wagon had scum on it? I believe it was AF, Rocnix, implosion, Chrimi, and myself at the end.

tne: same question.

Chrimi: you still tne+af?

Nah, I just dislike tne's playstyle. Not sure who AF could be with.

It feels a little too easy for scum to vote their scumbuddy right now because they know town wants more information before the hammer. Does everyone feel okay about declaring intent if they are exceptionally confident that we are hitting scum?

PP: I see your point, only 7 town in this game.

I'm going to wait for the official VC before I vote

Mod Notes

Looking for a Rocnix replacement.

Prodding 0x40.

AstralFlare is V/LA until Friday.

	VOTECOUNT 1.5
Player	Being voted by (in chronological order)	Number of Votes
1. Jibs
2. AstralFlare	Chrimi	1
3. PenguinPower	implosion	1
4. 0x40	thenewearth, PenguinPower, Jibs	3 (L-2)
5. Rocnix
6. Chrimi	0x40	1
7. thenewearth	AstralFlare, Rocnix	2
8. shannon
9. implosion

Not voting: shannon

Deadline to lynch is in (expired on 2016-08-21 21:23:28).

With 9 eligible to vote, it's 5 to lynch

Please let me know if there are errors in the VC, or have any other questions in general. Don't forget to bold such requests to me.

OK, good, VOTE: 0x40

This is L-1 (one more vote to lynch), please no one vote without explicitly stating intent and giving time for 0x40 to respond.

Intent to hammer.

Please claim your role, 0x40.

I also wouldn't mind hearing from the people who are voting elsewhere, because from my end at least, 0x40 is one of a few suspects and my vote on him is partly because we're nearing deadline and need to consolidate, as Implosion says. Implosion, AF, Rocnix, do any of you have a strong town read on 0x40, or are you feeling OK about this?

(Thought: Did ScumImplosion talk about consolidation so that I would vote 0x40?)

[implosion]

shannon, I think calling for consolidation is still relevant even with those additional votes on 0x; it wasn't clear that the wagon was going to take off (I didn't interpret your 415 as saying you were going to vote 0x specifically), and just looking at the vote count before I posted there were three singleton votes, one 2-vote wagon, one 3-vote wagon, and one non-vote - hardly consolidated. Your point is fair but if I were scum with Chrimi I don't think I would need to signal to her to do anything; she's an experienced player, she'd know when it's appropriate to vote or hammer as scum. And it's not like I would be concerned by that vote count if I were scum with her (there was one vote on her and 0 on me) so I don't see why I would need to signal to her to hammer in the first place.

[Chrimi]

The reason for wanting town to consolidate is so we don't have a no-lynch and end up with no information on Day Two, no?

And considering I'm town, I find it hard to believe implosion was trying to signal me to hammer :L

[implosion]

AF, what do you make of the wagon and in general the play that occurred while you were gone? Would you have joined it, do you think? Do you think it was a good lynch?

I think it was town's only option for a lynch with so little time left on the clock, especially with the surge of replacements and my unfortunately illness. I don't really have an issue with the people just joining the wagon because "day ending soon". (I've expressed my own opinion on 0x40 before. If you're too lazy to look through my ISO I called him town.) So no, I would have tried to push another wagon instead.

I saw that you called him town; a lot happened between you calling him town and the day ending, and I was curious if that would have made you re-evaluate. But I digress.

Also @Cass, welcome; I would also like to hear what your first impressions are, and what you make of the end of yesterday in general.

[Drone]

Welcome Cass! One thing I'd like to know is, considering you've read day 1, do you think there was a scum directing 0x40's lynch? If so whom it is, according to your intuition and judgments? Why?

As for mine and 0x40's case: I still call this a "policy" lynch. The way he was too obviously attacking everyone who didn't cooperate with him means he'd either be a terrible mafia trying to get a lynch asap, or a dull skilled towny who's trying really really hard/ showing off writing skills.

I too somewhat wanted to ask Jibs personally a few questions, but that won't happen.
So I'd sum up my thoughts of 0x40 wagon:
1) of all players, 0x40 was the distraction and could actually worsen day 2 if he was alive.
2) at some point, I believe a scum started directing the lynch (although not sure which).
When I say "directing" I mean, actively directing fire at him, as he already was the easiest and weakest candidate for a simple elimination.

[Drone]

Ebwodp, will continue this with more in depth details and maybe even name possibilities

[Cass]

Ok, first impressions (from my notes before knowing about the lack of NK - but after thinking about it, I don't see it changing things):

The scummiest: Rocnix/Drone. Both players gave me that impression, but what cinched it was Drone saying that 0x40 'feels like a policy lynch' (post 474), (Also sorry, I'll figure out how to properly link asap, this is my first game in seven years so I'm rusty...). And in his previous post, 444, he said:

A mislynch would be really distasteful on day 1, but you are the only lead right now.

This combined with my first impression and the fact that 0x40 was town makes that sound like a scum knowing that 0x40 will flip town. So, that's my best case so far.

VOTE: Drone

- Implosion next, because he has some votes on him now. He is a null read for me, so far. I just noticed he votes a lot - I like that, but don't think it's a tell.
- ThenewEarth: Also null. Looking forward to her play on day 2.
- Penguin and Shannon I lean town on.
- Astralfire seemed weakly scummy.
- Chrimi would be my second suspect, I got a mixed read on her. Her words sounded like town, but her voting pattern on day 1 could make sense for scum. And her role speculation post today was a bit weird too.

FoS: Chrimi

[Cass]

@Drone. No, my impression wasn't that the wagon was scum-driven. More that they sat back and let it happen. The lynch didn't strike me as weird , just a typical day 1 lynch based mainly on annoyance / nearing deadline. I suspect I would have hammered it too, had I been there. Like you said, there weren't really any better candidates.

However: you were the only one expressing regret even before it happened, and still defending it now. So I'm happy to keep my vote on you.

[shannon]

Ugh I missed the button, this is implosion 501 -

"shannon, I think calling for consolidation is still relevant even with those additional votes on 0x; it wasn't clear that the wagon was going to take off (I didn't interpret your 415 as saying you were going to vote 0x specifically), and just looking at the vote count before I posted there were three singleton votes, one 2-vote wagon, one 3-vote wagon, and one non-vote - hardly consolidated".

The reason for wanting town to consolidate is so we don't have a no-lynch and end up with no information on Day Two, no?

OK, so Implosion, Chrimi - -

Implosion's post above (and Chrimi's defense of Implosion) states that the reason for asking for consolidation is to avoid the possibility of a no lynch at end of D1. This is fine in and of itself, it makes sense to vote *someone* rather than no one. The points I have a problem with are as follows:

1) I flat-out don't believe that implosion didn't realise I was going to vote 0x40. I had narrowed it down to three candidates, and stated I wanted to see the VC first. The only reason to see a VC first is, IMHO, to make sure you're not going to accidentally hammer. Otherwise, why does it matter what the votes are? The other two of my candidates had only one vote on them each, ergo, I was waiting to make sure that the L-2 wagon on 0x40 really was L-2. I think Implosion is a close reader and I think he would have noticed this signal.

2) Implosion's point above about the wagon distribution makes sense if you look at the VC in 417 alone, but not if you look at the context. The two votes on TNE were the remainder of a wagon that was disbanding, remember? One of the two votes on TNE was part of the 'round robin' four players all voting one another, and the other vote was the AFK Rocnix. I don't believe Implosion thought L-3 on TNE would be a plausible, growing wagon, let alone a competing wagon to the L-2 on 0x40. Especially since two of the votes on 0x40 happened within ten posts of Implosion calling for us to consolidate.

3) Implosion calls the wagons 'hardly consolidated', but I said that we were

starting

to consolidate of our own accord. Again, immediately prior to my checking the VC, there were two votes on 0x40 in quick succession. This to me suggests that we were getting organised around one candidate.

4) Why, if the priority to lynch and get info, did implosion ask 0x40 questions, and not add his vote? Especially since 0x40 was at L-2, and Implosion didn't consider this a 'sure' wagon? An info seeking vote could have really helped put the pressure on 0x40 to give us useable stuff instead of just attitude.

I'm keen to hear anyone else's thoughts on this.

[Chrimi]

- Chrimi would be my second suspect, I got a mixed read on her. Her words sounded like town, but her voting pattern on day 1 could make sense for scum. And her role speculation post today was a bit weird too.

FoS: Chrimi

Me forgetting this setup might have a doctor is suspicious? Oh boy.

[Chrimi]

Ugh I missed the button, this is implosion 501 -

"shannon, I think calling for consolidation is still relevant even with those additional votes on 0x; it wasn't clear that the wagon was going to take off (I didn't interpret your 415 as saying you were going to vote 0x specifically), and just looking at the vote count before I posted there were three singleton votes, one 2-vote wagon, one 3-vote wagon, and one non-vote - hardly consolidated".

The reason for wanting town to consolidate is so we don't have a no-lynch and end up with no information on Day Two, no?

OK, so Implosion, Chrimi - -

Implosion's post above (and Chrimi's defense of Implosion) states that the reason for asking for consolidation is to avoid the possibility of a no lynch at end of D1. This is fine in and of itself, it makes sense to vote *someone* rather than no one. The points I have a problem with are as follows:

1) I flat-out don't believe that implosion didn't realise I was going to vote 0x40. I had narrowed it down to three candidates, and stated I wanted to see the VC first. The only reason to see a VC first is, IMHO, to make sure you're not going to accidentally hammer. Otherwise, why does it matter what the votes are? The other two of my candidates had only one vote on them each, ergo, I was waiting to make sure that the L-2 wagon on 0x40 really was L-2. I think Implosion is a close reader and I think he would have noticed this signal.

2) Implosion's point above about the wagon distribution makes sense if you look at the VC in 417 alone, but not if you look at the context. The two votes on TNE were the remainder of a wagon that was disbanding, remember? One of the two votes on TNE was part of the 'round robin' four players all voting one another, and the other vote was the AFK Rocnix. I don't believe Implosion thought L-3 on TNE would be a plausible, growing wagon, let alone a competing wagon to the L-2 on 0x40. Especially since two of the votes on 0x40 happened within ten posts of Implosion calling for us to consolidate.

3) Implosion calls the wagons 'hardly consolidated', but I said that we were

starting

to consolidate of our own accord. Again, immediately prior to my checking the VC, there were two votes on 0x40 in quick succession. This to me suggests that we were getting organised around one candidate.

4) Why, if the priority to lynch and get info, did implosion ask 0x40 questions, and not add his vote? Especially since 0x40 was at L-2, and Implosion didn't consider this a 'sure' wagon? An info seeking vote could have really helped put the pressure on 0x40 to give us useable stuff instead of just attitude.

I'm keen to hear anyone else's thoughts on this.

This is interesting, but if anything it's grasping at straws. A lot of this is "I feel like", and to me, it feels like you're trying to make a case out of nothing. I don't really have a strong read on implosion, and I'm not going to defend against any of these points individually, but in general I feel like if implosion was wrong it's NAI.

[shannon]

All I can say is that I just played with Implosion (we were both town) and he seems different here. He seems, in my limited experience, like a really good player and a really close reader. I expect him to pick up on things like my intended vote, and he says he didn't. I expect him to remember that TNE's wagon was disbanding, not building up. If someone else made those sorts of mistakes I'd expect him to call them out on it, so for him to make the mistakes himself suggests to me that they're scum and not actual mistakes.

[Drone]

Ok, first impressions (from my notes before knowing about the lack of NK - but after thinking about it, I don't see it changing things):

The scummiest: Rocnix/Drone. Both players gave me that impression, but what cinched it was Drone saying that 0x40 'feels like a policy lynch' (post 474), (Also sorry, I'll figure out how to properly link asap, this is my first game in seven years so I'm rusty...). And in his previous post, 444, he said:

A mislynch would be really distasteful on day 1, but you are the only lead right now.

This combined with my first impression and the fact that 0x40 was town makes that sound like a scum knowing that 0x40 will flip town. So, that's my best case so far.

VOTE: Drone

- Implosion next, because he has some votes on him now. He is a null read for me, so far. I just noticed he votes a lot - I like that, but don't think it's a tell.
- ThenewEarth: Also null. Looking forward to her play on day 2.
- Penguin and Shannon I lean town on.
- Astralfire seemed weakly scummy.
- Chrimi would be my second suspect, I got a mixed read on her. Her words sounded like town, but her voting pattern on day 1 could make sense for scum. And her role speculation post today was a bit weird too.

FoS: Chrimi

@Drone. No, my impression wasn't that the wagon was scum-driven. More that they sat back and let it happen. The lynch didn't strike me as weird , just a typical day 1 lynch based mainly on annoyance / nearing deadline. I suspect I would have hammered it too, had I been there. Like you said, there weren't really any better candidates.

However: you were the only one expressing regret even before it happened, and still defending it now. So I'm happy to keep my vote on you.

I was not regretting the lynch cause a no lynch on day 1 is worse than a mislynch on day 1 as it would bring nothing to work with.
0x40's lynch was good and I called out that leaving him alive would only hold us down on day 2 (post 504).
Although I haven't voted him because when I joined and caught up, he was already L1. Hammering him would have been stupid..

Saying that a mislynch would be distasteful on day 1, is plain truth. I believed that he was a badplay towny, but a towny.
I personally wasn't that aware of the day limit and been trying to find better candidates.
Find them, not shoot every direction I can and hopefully alter the wagon.
Trying to scramble the game shortly after replacing is scummy as heck and foolish. So I just said what I think.

Me expressing my thoughts and read on 0x40's irrational behavior came up on day 1 and on day 2 (post 504 again).
But, if you are inclined that I am scummy, keep the vote.

What you say does make sense, but as it is wrong and a bit twisted, it's invalid.
Do you have more points? Something explaining Rocnix's scumminess perhaps?
I might not be able to speak for her, but I want to know.

[Drone]

Sorry for the long wall, forgot to use spoilers. Will do next time..

[thenewearth]

If it was a BP s/he should claim honestly

[thenewearth]

No point in actually hiding that fact

Hell that's the most anti-town shit you can pull especially when it reaches later days

[Drone]

@thenewearth whom are you referring to?

[thenewearth]

Anyone who's a BP

If there are no claims then I'm ok with it

[Drone]

Ah, I thought your BP stood for bad play, wiki saved me

[Cass]

No point in actually hiding that fact

Hell that's the most anti-town shit you can pull especially when it reaches later days

Could you explain why? I haven't played this set-up before, and at first glance this sounds like it might help scum. (This might be a stupid question, but would scum even know why their NK failed? And if not, isn't it better to keep them guessing?)

[PenguinPower]

2) at some point, I believe a scum started directing the lynch (although not sure which).
When I say "directing" I mean, actively directing fire at him, as he already was the easiest and weakest candidate for a simple elimination.

Who do you think it was?

4) Why, if the priority to lynch and get info, did implosion ask 0x40 questions, and not add his vote? Especially since 0x40 was at L-2, and Implosion didn't consider this a 'sure' wagon? An info seeking vote could have really helped put the pressure on 0x40 to give us useable stuff instead of just attitude.

I agree with this being concerning. He's calling for consolidation on what ends up being town, but remains off the wagon himself.

Me forgetting this setup might have a doctor is suspicious? Oh boy.

Why would it be weird for someone to see a scumslip in that?

[Chrimi]

Me forgetting this setup might have a doctor is suspicious? Oh boy.

Why would it be weird for someone to see a scumslip in that?

How is it a scumslip? If anything it's a "I'm obviously not a doctor" slip

[shannon]

Me forgetting this setup might have a doctor is suspicious? Oh boy.

Why would it be weird for someone to see a scumslip in that?

How is it a scumslip? If anything it's a "I'm obviously not a doctor" slip

Initially I thought that forgetting the doctor might have been due to Chrimi having one particular scum role, but then I looked at the matrix and saw that there could be other town PRs with that role, so nope, not a scum slip.

[Chrimi]

Me forgetting this setup might have a doctor is suspicious? Oh boy.

Why would it be weird for someone to see a scumslip in that?

How is it a scumslip? If anything it's a "I'm obviously not a doctor" slip

Initially I thought that forgetting the doctor might have been due to Chrimi having one particular scum role, but then I looked at the matrix and saw that there could be other town PRs with that role, so nope, not a scum slip.

Well you're wrong because

Claim: Town 1-shot BP

Not sure why scum tried to kill me but oh well.

[Chrimi]

This means if you're a protective role you better save my sweet ass tonight.