Newbie 1732 [Game Over!]: InnocentVille

[AstralFlare]

Chrimi stop the policy vote onto Shannon for gods sake. She's conf town, you're conf town, we can't afford a mislynch tonight. Put your vote on implosion/TNE

Also while on TNE I just think she's town

Ok what I'm just confused. Gonna take some time to chill and think about this

[thenewearth]

At least Astral is town

I think

[Chrimi]

4) Scum targeted whoever you fucking jailkept?

Why would scum target fucking TNE?? She's been cryptic and anti town and generally unhelpful and scum

likes

that.

Also while on TNE I just think she's town who doesn't gaf too much about winning this shit. I mean it's consistent with her meta.

Sorry I'm pretty worked up

VOTE: TNE

[Chrimi]

On that note Chrimi while I do think you're probably town I don't like you calling yourself confirmed; you are not confirmed. Your claim could be a gambit, or you could be scum who was only planning on actually committing to the claim if no counterclaims appeared. That said I'm personally not interested in lynching you for the forseeable future. If we're lucky then shannon stopped the kill last night and you still have a bp shot.

A gambit that has a 3/4 chance of throwing the game?

No thanks. I'd hope you'd expect more of me than that.

[shannon]

Wtf is this game??

@Drone - you're not even trying anymore, or what? How am I bussing tne by making cases on you and explosion, having drone/imp/pp as scum top three and refusing to lynch her today? Was that a scumslip about you bussing her?

A jailkeeper claim, oh why... Oh my. I guess that means we don't lynch Shannon or Chrimi now.

Btw, I thought I had spotted breadcrumbing for tracker from shannon, but w/e. Doesn't matter anymore now.

So scum is either TNE, or whoever targeted her, right? Oh, or neither, if Chrimi was the target. Jeeze, this really isn't helping. Shannon just got herself needlessly nk-ed is what it looks like to me.

To explain further why I claimed - I am looking at the game from the perspective of scum, who have more info than we do. And there have been a few people commenting that my case on TNE looked like I was acting on information that they didn't have, ergo, the thought I was a PR of some kind.

Chrimi's BP claim, if true, narrows down the options for scum - if they have a goon and a roleblocker, Chrimi's uncced claim puts them in A, and if they're goon/goon her claim puts them in 3.

So - if scum are any of the people who commented that I had more info (or if they knew it but are now denying it because it looks town), they already knew my role, based on Chrimi's claim and their own team combo.

The reason I claimed, then, is because if Chrimi's claim is true then based on my role we're in A, and scum already know it. And I think they probably knew that I'm the PR - - if TNE is scum, they'd be almost certain of it, since I made that early case on her D2 when no one else saw it.

[shannon]

Quote snippied for relevance, my comments in bold because I can't remember how to do that thing where you separate out bits of quote.

I'm not sure why you said this:

and by the look of things everyone also knows I'm a PR.

I don't think everyone knew you were a PR and I'm not sure why you thought it. People were just townreading you because your play looks town. It looks like I'm not alone in this.

I'll go back and quote all the things if you like

Now that you're claimed there's a simple optimal play: you should announce your target beforehand and follow what you've announced if we lynch scum today. That way if you die we'll at least wind up with a clear. Although there's a roleblocker if both you and Chrimi are real so it'll only actually be a clear if we lynch the roleblocker today.

Correct - we need to make our best guess at scum today

If we lynch town today then you shouldn't necessarily follow what you announce, instead you should try to guess who will be the scum who makes the kill and jailkeep them. Although again I guess this is irrelevant if there's a roleblocker.

Correct. And if I survive until tomorrow, there's probably no roleblocker and this has implications for Chrimi's authenticity.

Actually thinking a little more the optimal PR play (for shannon) is this:
-if we lynch a townie then shannon jailkeeps arbitrarily without paying attention to who it was announced on
-if we lynch a scum roleblocker then shannon jailkeeps whatever target she announced beforehand (which she should announce for this case)
-if we lynch a goon then shannon jailkeeps Chrimi. This is because if we lynch a goon, the other scum is either a RB or a goon. If they're a RB they'll just block+kill shannon so it doesn't matter who she jailkeeps. If they're a goon then they're Chrimi.

Yes, we're on the same page - Chrimi, if you're going to unclaim BP now's the time to do it.

If we're lucky then shannon stopped the kill last night and you still have a bp shot.

This is the optimal scenario, and we can find out if it's true by lynching TNE

OK, so lynching TNE today:

-if we lynch a townie then shannon jailkeeps arbitrarily without paying attention to who it was announced on
-if we lynch a scum roleblocker then shannon jailkeeps whatever target she announced beforehand (which she should announce for this case)
-if we lynch a goon then shannon jailkeeps Chrimi. This is because if we lynch a goon, the other scum is either a RB or a goon. If they're a RB they'll just block+kill shannon so it doesn't matter who she jailkeeps. If they're a goon then they're Chrimi.

[shannon]

I'm posting these here to remind everyone of the D1 wagon on TNE, and to save everyone else from having to go back and find them.

Implosion's defense makes enough sense as town. We were reading the situation differently, so he responded in ways that didn't quite make sense to me.
UNVOTE: Implosion

VOTE: thenewearth and this time I'm going to leave it there until she does something. AstralFlare, you care about this too, so hold me to that.

Shannon, I have a bit of an oddball question for you (or anyone who would like to throw in their two cents): Who do you think is in the most danger of being nightkilled?

Votecount

Spoiler:

	VOTECOUNT 1.3
Player	Being voted by (in chronological order)	Number of Votes
1. Jibs	shannon	1
2. AstralFlare	Chrimi	1
3. PenguinPower
4. 0x40	thenewearth	1
5. Rocnix	PenguinPower	1
6. Chrimi	0x40	1
7. thenewearth	AstralFlare, Rocnix, implosion	3
8. shannon
9. implosion

Not voting: Jibs

Deadline to lynch is in (expired on 2016-08-21 21:23:28).

With 9 eligible to vote, it's 5 to lynch

Please let me know if there are errors in the VC, or have any other questions in general. Don't forget to bold such requests to me.

Alright then.

intent to hammer thenewearth

Let me know if I need to fix the formatting there.

I'm feeling very strongly that Chrimi and tne are opposite alignment now, and I will wait quite a bit before hammering (at least 24 hours, since we have lots of time). I'm fairly certain about what tne will claim, but I'm curious about whether she has a convincing argument that Chrimi is scum.

I'm feeling very strongly that Chrimi and tne are opposite alignment now

I wouldn't say so. Yes, if TNE flips scum, Chrimi is pretty much confirmed town. There's no reason for scum!Chrimi to push a wagon so hard on her partner over something as common as lurking.

Rocnix: You mentioned in your readlist that TNE was null. So was your vote of TNE several pages after to pressure into more activity, or because you genuinely thought her as scum?

votecount

Spoiler:

Prodding Rocnix.

	VOTECOUNT 1.4
Player	Being voted by (in chronological order)	Number of Votes
1. Jibs
2. AstralFlare
3. PenguinPower
4. 0x40	thenewearth	1
5. Rocnix	PenguinPower	1
6. Chrimi	0x40	1
7. thenewearth	AstralFlare, Rocnix, implosion, Chrimi	4 (L-1!!)
8. shannon
9. implosion

Not voting: Jibs, shannon

Deadline to lynch is in (expired on 2016-08-21 21:23:28).

With 9 eligible to vote, it's 5 to lynch

Please let me know if there are errors in the VC, or have any other questions in general. Don't forget to bold such requests to me.

Hello all, couldn't sleep.

I rescind my intent to hammer

All the cryptic stuff kind of fried my brain, so I forgot about the basic mechanics of the lynch. I am very worried about there being scum on that wagon.

Please don't claim tne.

VOTE: implosion

4 on...why are you suddenly very worried?

Part of it is that Chrimi seems really nonchalant about voting with her top scum, and AF is quite nonchalant about voting with imp, who he is suspicious of. I also worry about imp's vote, since it feels like he adjusted his reads so that he wouldn't have to vote with his top scum. Finally, I agree that it would be very weird for Rocnix to play this way as scum, but this feels like a weird game to begin with.

To be honest, tne could definitely still be scum, as per shannon and Chrimi's points. I don't agree at all with her comments about night kills, if I'm looking at the game right, and she needs some reads.

[Chrimi]

Wtf is this game??

@Drone - you're not even trying anymore, or what? How am I bussing tne by making cases on you and explosion, having drone/imp/pp as scum top three and refusing to lynch her today? Was that a scumslip about you bussing her?

A jailkeeper claim, oh why... Oh my. I guess that means we don't lynch Shannon or Chrimi now.

Btw, I thought I had spotted breadcrumbing for tracker from shannon, but w/e. Doesn't matter anymore now.

So scum is either TNE, or whoever targeted her, right? Oh, or neither, if Chrimi was the target. Jeeze, this really isn't helping. Shannon just got herself needlessly nk-ed is what it looks like to me.

To explain further why I claimed - I am looking at the game from the perspective of scum, who have more info than we do. And there have been a few people commenting that my case on TNE looked like I was acting on information that they didn't have, ergo, the thought I was a PR of some kind.

Chrimi's BP claim, if true, narrows down the options for scum - if they have a goon and a roleblocker, Chrimi's uncced claim puts them in A, and if they're goon/goon her claim puts them in 3.

So - if scum are any of the people who commented that I had more info (or if they knew it but are now denying it because it looks town), they already knew my role, based on Chrimi's claim and their own team combo.

The reason I claimed, then, is because if Chrimi's claim is true then based on my role we're in A, and scum already know it. And I think they probably knew that I'm the PR - - if TNE is scum, they'd be almost certain of it, since I made that early case on her D2 when no one else saw it.

Saying you have information we don't is implying scum, not PR.

I still honestly don't think anyone actually thought for sure you were a PR besides someone noticing a soft-crumbing for Tracker apparently. I think you misread the situation horribly; I didn't even think you were very towny.

[shannon]

Well, agree to disagree then, what's done is done, let's get the best outcome we can from here.

[innocentvillager]

Mod Notes

I have to really apologize for being so slow with votecounts, you should not have to wait this long for a VC again. Sorry again.

	VOTECOUNT 2.2
Player	Being voted by (in chronological order)	Number of Votes
1. Cass	implosion, Drone	2
2. AstralFlare
3. PenguinPower
5. Drone	Cass	1
6. Chrimi	shannon	1
7. thenewearth	PenguinPower, Chrimi	2
8. shannon
9. implosion	thenewearth, AstralFlare	2

Not voting:

Deadline to lynch is in (expired on 2016-09-06 12:09:21).

With 8 eligible to vote, it's 5 to lynch

Please let me know if there are errors in the VC, or have any other questions in general. Don't forget to bold such requests to me.

[implosion]

You guys are attacking her for switching votes quick. Switching votes quick is towny af.

Both of these are oversimplifications.

Lining up mislynches is different from switching votes quickly. The biggest thing for me is that Cass's vote on me looks very opportunistic for reasons I've explained. The reasons I've explained are contingent on tne town but it should be obvious why it also can make sense if tne is scum.

And this isn't just joining wagons for the heck of it, this is joining wagons backed up with explanation on the votes and ISO analyses. So yeah no.

The simple existence of an explanation or analysis is not enough to read someone off of. Joining wagons backed up with explanations is not a tell, it's just an indication that that player backs up what they say with logic. You have to dig into those reasons to actually read them.

With regards to lynching tne, -shrug-. I actually tend to slightly townread the previous page from her - I'm not sure if she'd fake an emotional reaction to this situation as scum but gut says it's less likely than town. It's not the end of the world if it happens but I'm inclined against it. I don't think Chrimi is a particularly unlikely scumkill from last night; if she was then I'd be much more for lynching tne.

[Cass]

@pp
Instead of haunting Implosion could you please do something useful? If I'm not wrong, Cass is at L-1.
Are you okay with the Cass wagon? If not speak up why. If yes, consider questioning her while intending to hammer.

!!
Someone tell me if I'm paranoid, but doesn't this sound terribly like scum signaling to his partner that it is time to quick-hammer? I realize I'm biased, because it was me almost getting killed here, but still... Can we please lynch Drone today? We might even get lucky and have him flip RB.

And yes, this might mean Imp is town after all, though based on how this wagon on me went I'd say it's 50/50 between pp and imp, and I'll rethink it tomorrow.

The only lynch I'm 'lining up' is Drone, if we lynch someone else now, because I am so sure he is scum.

I'm pretty sure shannon, chrime, af and tne are town. 50/50 on imp&pp and convinced Drone is scum. So it looks simple to me, yay. Well, who to lynch does. The rest of this game looks like a hot mess.

[AstralFlare]

Ok thought about it VOTE: TNE

The way I see it, assuming both claims are true, there's two possibilities

1) Scum targeted TNE
TNE didn't die due to jailkeep, thus explaining the lack of a night kill. The way I see it this is unlikely, since scum would have no reason to target TNE. Like I said, she has been generally suspicious, even inciting a wagon to the point of intent to hammer. The opinions and votes she expressed in day one came without much attempt to convince town to follow along, thus making her a low threat to scum.

2) TNE is scum
This one seems the more likely of the two. Like, there's a reason why you get to L-1. Implosion is right that her emotional response makes her less likely to be scum, and I've been gut reading her town for a very long time now. That said, my vote is still going to go on her. She's my preferred lynch choice for today.

If fakeclaims:

3) Chrimi scum and fakeclaiming.
Nah 75% chance she will be counterclaimed, I don't think scum would pull out such a risky gambit.

4) Chrimi town and fakeclaiming
This one is more likely, although I don't get the motivation for doing so? It's obvious that there isn't a doctor/cop pair to protect this game since Shannon already claimed JK. If someone could explain why they think this is possible to me—

[AstralFlare]

Wait I realized Chrimi could have been shot so no kill, Shannon/TNE both town

UNVOTE:

This honestly makes the most sense. Chrimi would have been the best NK target N1, as I explained someone else.

But so we've narrowed it down to two of PP/Imp/Cass/Drone

[AstralFlare]

UNVOTE:

Cass if you're town I think you're stuck in confbias on Drone. You already think very strongly he's scum, and you're interpreting practically everything he has done in a scummy light, when there could be towny motivations for them as well. Hell, wiki cautions against an ISO PbPA for exactly this reason.

[Cass]

That might be true, it does worry me, yet I can't see a way out of it now. I have only drone/imp/pp as possible scum now. And when I iso imp or pp I don't see them as a likely pair (imp 387; 531, penguin 711) so that brings me back to Drone again. And on this recent wagon on me, Drone looks reaaly bad, or is that really just me and my confbias?

[Drone]

@pp
Instead of haunting Implosion could you please do something useful? If I'm not wrong, Cass is at L-1.
Are you okay with the Cass wagon? If not speak up why. If yes, consider questioning her while intending to hammer.

!!
Someone tell me if I'm paranoid, but doesn't this sound terribly like scum signaling to his partner that it is time to quick-hammer? I realize I'm biased, because it was me almost getting killed here, but still... Can we please lynch Drone today? We might even get lucky and have him flip RB.

And yes, this might mean Imp is town after all, though based on how this wagon on me went I'd say it's 50/50 between pp and imp, and I'll rethink it tomorrow.

The only lynch I'm 'lining up' is Drone, if we lynch someone else now, because I am so sure he is scum.

I'm pretty sure shannon, chrime, af and tne are town. 50/50 on imp&pp and convinced Drone is scum. So it looks simple to me, yay. Well, who to lynch does. The rest of this game looks like a hot mess.

I'm going to go ahead and ignore this post.

UNVOTE: Cass

[Drone]

That might be true, it does worry me, yet I can't see a way out of it now. I have only drone/imp/pp as possible scum now. And when I iso imp or pp I don't see them as a likely pair (imp 387; 531, penguin 711) so that brings me back to Drone again. And on this recent wagon on me, Drone looks reaaly bad, or is that really just me and my confbias?

Actually, it might look bad, but my opinion on you has changed from one edge to another TWICE.
at the beginning of the day you almost convinced me you're towny. But then you began jumping from votes in a very strict pattern. And quickly.
I think it was af who said it's towny? Well it's not.
Townies consider their votes before they vote.
And if they do, they at least give a good reason for the jumps..
Also they don't find intention to hammer on wagons they are in (tne) as scummy. It's contradictory.

[Drone]

Woops, forgot to VOTE: thenewearth

[shannon]

3) Chrimi scum and fakeclaiming.
Nah 75% chance she will be counterclaimed, I don't think scum would pull out such a risky gambit.

4) Chrimi town and fakeclaiming
This one is more likely, although I don't get the motivation for doing so? It's obvious that there isn't a doctor/cop pair to protect this game since Shannon already claimed JK. If someone could explain why they think this is possible to me—

Regarding 3)

If Chrimi is scum in a team with a roleblocker, it's only 50/50 as to the counterclaim - she's either in A (where there is an actual BP) or 2 (where there's a cop and doc, who will probably not counter claim her but let it go on long enough for them to get results).

The game would be to stay alive long enough to NK the PRs, without having them out you as a fake claimer - and then to get away with the fake claim by saying you were trying to hide other town PRs.


Regarding 4 )

Scum are currently the only ones who can truly know whether Chrimi's claim is real. Last night's kill was blocked, and only scum know who was targeted. If they targeted Chrimi, she's a real BP. If they didn't target Chrimi, then I did the saving and TNE was either the killer or the target. If their target *wasn't* Chrimi, the only way anyone can know the veracity of her claim is by being scum in a goon/goon team, which would but us in 1 not A.

[AstralFlare]

OK I can't make sense of this game, so I'll get you guys to do it instead.

Of the five possible scenarios I outlined above, which do you think is the most likely, and why?

[AstralFlare]

Also they don't find intention to hammer on wagons they are in (tne) as scummy. It's contradictory.

Hey I was on the TNE wagon and I found what you did scummy af. Town doesn't intent to hammer someone who isn't 100% definitive (READ: not PRed by cop) a week before the deadline.

Sigh now we're stuck in this Drone/Cass argument again

Also why did you unvote Cass if you found her recent stuff scummy.

And why is TNE scummier than Cass from your PoV when (Scenario 5)

Chrimi could have been shot so no kill, Shannon/TNE both town

[AstralFlare]

Shannon, is your 744 trying to push for a lynch onto Chrimi?

[Drone]

Basically, it's all statistics. The chance Chrimi was shot/tne was saved/tne way blocked. Statistically the chances are the same.
But I return to my former question, why would mafia target tne?

[Cass]

I checked Chrimi day 1. No serious interactions with Rocnix/Drone, some with Implosion, Astralflare, PP (and others, not trying to be complete here) - bottomline: she does make sense as NK target, and definitely if I'm right about one of PP and Imp being scum. Tne as kill target doesn't really make sense.

Now say TNE is scum (not saying I think so, but as an experiment). What happened then? She sends in the kill (for whoever, it's irrelevant in this case). The kill fails, because shannon JK's her; but that she doesn't know. She would know that there is a RB on her team (because we assume Chrime and Shannon are both telling the truth), so now she really, really wants to know what set-up she is in. The one with the doc/cop or the one with BP/JK.
Pushing for a BP is in fact the safest way to find out quickly, huh. If anyone does, she has her answer. Now, the odds are she did NOT target Chrime N1 - and so she knows she has a problem and it would be best for her to get Chrime lynched, but it would look very suspicious to push for it. She hates the Shannon claim, because it is very bad for her. If that hadn't happened, she would have NK-ed Shannon and coasted along.

So, this scenario makes a lot of sense...

In the other version, TNE is a VT. She sees there is no NK in N1 and gets worried there might be a BP. She has bad experiences with late game BP claims losing the game for town (or winning for scum), so she wants that claim and possible counterclaim asap. She says she 'wants to lynch the BP but doesn't need to now', that remark is still mysterious to me, because at that point she could not know which set-up we were in (as VT). She hates the Shannon claim, because it gives scum more information (? not sure that's why, don't mean to misrepresent).

It's possible, at least the part about wanting an early BP claim makes sense for town.

Well, the scum!tne scenario seems more logical, in fact I have almost convinced myself :p Maybe I need to sleep on this game or something, because right now it feels like a thorny maze.