Newbie 1732 [Game Over!]: InnocentVille

[AstralFlare]

Also a no-lynch is unacceptable today because, duh, scum is going to kill me and that doesn't help us lower the lynchpool at all.

I think a no lynch is okay if we do not come to a consensus. What you're saying is true, but I think going into a 3-2 is better than jumping onto someone we are unsure of, which potentially gives scum an instantaneous win.

[AstralFlare]

For my hundredth post, I just want to say that all you guys are great, and have been really fun to play with so far!

[Cass]

Now can someone take their vote off me before scum double votes me in a row?

Is it a reasonable conclusion to make that Drone is scum if a double vote on me does not happen overnight? I think scum would have coordinated during the night to find a time where they both are usually on to quickhammer an L-2. (Assuming Chrimi town)

Seconding AF's request here. Unless you're really that sure, Chrimi...?

I'd love to say yes (because it is Drone, and because I'd love love love some certainty right now) to the reasonable conclusion, but, no. It could also mean you are scum, or simply that it's weekend.

[Drone]

4) Scum targeted whoever you fucking jailkept?

Why would scum target fucking TNE?? She's been cryptic and anti town and generally unhelpful and scum

likes

that.

Also while on TNE I just think she's town who doesn't gaf too much about winning this shit. I mean it's consistent with her meta.

Sorry I'm pretty worked up

Chrimi here provided an option which could equally have happened as her being the target of nk 1
Now since the probability of this happening statistically is the same (without jk chances calculated, they come after), town can't really explain why this would have happened.
You said Chrimi was the best target, I disagreed.
But then you also gave a reason why tne wouldn't be target which brought me to my first point on you day 3.
Its a simple LAMIST to say "why would they target her she's so anti town!", while actually targeting her, thinking town would be going "wtf" on that and lose trails of thought and ideas.

Ok thought about it VOTE: TNE

The way I see it, assuming both claims are true, there's two possibilities

1) Scum targeted TNE
TNE didn't die due to jailkeep, thus explaining the lack of a night kill. The way I see it this is unlikely, since scum would have no reason to target TNE. Like I said, she has been generally suspicious, even inciting a wagon to the point of intent to hammer. The opinions and votes she expressed in day one came without much attempt to convince town to follow along, thus making her a low threat to scum.

2) TNE is scum
This one seems the more likely of the two. Like, there's a reason why you get to L-1. Implosion is right that her emotional response makes her less likely to be scum, and I've been gut reading her town for a very long time now. That said, my vote is still going to go on her. She's my preferred lynch choice for today.

If fakeclaims:

3) Chrimi scum and fakeclaiming.
Nah 75% chance she will be counterclaimed, I don't think scum would pull out such a risky gambit.

4) Chrimi town and fakeclaiming
This one is more likely, although I don't get the motivation for doing so? It's obvious that there isn't a doctor/cop pair to protect this game since Shannon already claimed JK. If someone could explain why they think this is possible to me


If no one, we need to find another "consensus candidate".

These scenarios have been processed so many times yet you came in posting them again. Instead of saying what would happen if we lynch tne and she'll come out X, we'll have to go/do Y.
Merely stating what could have happened instead of saying what we'll be doing.
Now, I myself posted these options, not as meaty text-wise.
Implosion posted them as well, also providing his own opinions of what to do.
These happened before your analysis post.
This really feels like attempting at sounding town by pointing things already been pointed out.
Who's the other options??

I also commented on these analysis posts since they were repeating themselves and got us nowhere.

OK I can't make sense of this game, so I'll get you guys to do it instead.

Of the five possible scenarios I outlined above, which do you think is the most likely, and why?

Again, repeating yourself, asking a question that basically means "comment on that plz, I contribute!".
Those scenarios already been thought of.

Also I really like 750
Also I want the answer from the rest of you guys- which is the most likely scenario?

I answered that they're all possible, same probabilities.
But you still want more to notice your "contribution".

Are people advocating TNE just as an information lynch? When we have one mislynch left?

You had any better options?

If anyone is going to hammer please make it fast. Claiming, deciding whether to hammer, getting last words— all these take time. Time we no longer have. There's a little over three days left to go.

No, I was just asking the question, no implication behind it. I just hadn't seen those names mentioned much lately.

Weird, because it seems half the player base wants to lynch me

A one game sample size isn't much to go on... If you're voting implosion there's far more scummy things you can base it on, I'm sure.

I used the word 'clear' since it's extremely inprobable TNE was targeted day one: just think, if you were scum, would you rather kill TNE or Chrimi?

So you wanted someone to hammer quick after all?
Three days ain't little time, it's a lot

Also about the Implosion thing you said.
What are those mote scummy things he did? I happened to miss it.


Overall, I didn't like these posts.
You did use your head, but where are the options you thought of? Aside people providing cases for you, and people sorting the mess you couldn't figure out for you?

But..!
I did certainly like your posts after you were prodded.
Finally you have given us content.
A bit of an overkill, but content.

Before I'm unvoting you, I'm going to reread your latest posts and leave a question for you;
What are your thoughts on pp?

And, whom should we lynch today in your opinion (let's pretend nl isn't an option).

[Drone]

Btw I hate you for making me use so many quotes use so many editing options.
Submitting posts through the phone is a pain in the ass as it is..
And have access to my pc only at weekends. (excluding this one)

[implosion]

This game sucks.

I've caught up on the stuff that was posted since my last post and bah. Drone/AF both feel gut town in ways that I have trouble getting past and PP still has townish things and there are things that do make me seriously reconsider Cass as well (her insistence on the breadcrumb thing, even if it is just essentially taking her word for it and there are other possible reasons like I said).

I think I might just need to directly discuss things with Chrimi. Or well more specifically I want to hear from her (possibly again, idk if she's elaborated a ton on it) what is convincing her that Drone is town.

I feel pretty lost in my reads at this point. I still think Cass is most likely scum because I see material reasons to townread all four but only really material reasons to scumread Cass so far that I really agree with.

[Chrimi]

This game sucks.

I've caught up on the stuff that was posted since my last post and bah. Drone/AF both feel gut town in ways that I have trouble getting past and PP still has townish things and there are things that do make me seriously reconsider Cass as well (her insistence on the breadcrumb thing, even if it is just essentially taking her word for it and there are other possible reasons like I said).

I think I might just need to directly discuss things with Chrimi. Or well more specifically I want to hear from her (possibly again, idk if she's elaborated a ton on it) what is convincing her that Drone is town.

I feel pretty lost in my reads at this point. I still think Cass is most likely scum because I see material reasons to townread all four but only really material reasons to scumread Cass so far that I really agree with.

I think we need to talk about why you think AF is town.

[AstralFlare]

I'll get back to you guys later, esp Drone, since it's going to be long. I'm on phone myself right now as well.

Cass- What makes you townread me?
Everyone else- To what extent do you agree with my post on Cass.

Again, repeating yourself, asking a question that basically means "comment on that plz, I contribute!".

Well it's a reaction test, like any other question. If Cass can't give a reasonable explanation as to why she thinks I'm town, then it makes her more likely to be scum. I'm repeating myself as I want comments and reactions to what I've thought about. Several reactions, I think, would be indicative of scum, while others would be indicative of town.

[Cass]

@AstralFlare: I townread you partly because of the tone of your posts: calm, reasonable, honestly curious. Partly because the way and the timing of you removing your vote from TNE and your resistance to that lynch.
Personal: as you remark somewhere, we think along similar lines, that helps too. (You also pointed out I'm in confbias with regard to Drone, which I do appreciate. It's a fact, but it doesn't prove Drones innocence.)
Your post 921 and 919 also read very town to me, that's more confirmation.
- And of course, I really

want

you to be town. Because with you + me + Chrimi (+ the last townie) working together we'd have a good chance to eliminate the scum.

[Cass]

Right now if I were to make a guess I'd say cass/drone. Second would be a tossup between cass/af and cass/pp. But I really do think cass's play is scummy.

So... basically you'd link me to anyone (except Chrimi, because doubting her got you under fire before...), as long as it gets me lynched, right? Because it takes only one mislynch right now, so who cares, right?

He thinks we're not scum partners because I'm pushing you like this, not because questioning me got him under fire. This is horrible misrep coming straight from scum. Can we lynch Cass now please?

It's not misrep, just questioning of motives - I am working from the premise that Imp is scum, in which case he would not be honest about his motivations. You assume he's town, so he would be honest. Can't be proven either way until he flips / wins, so *shrug*.

Chrimi: I really need to know why you are so sure Drone is town and AF is scum. Seriously, I'd love to be convinced. We need to find a way out of this.

[innocentvillager]

Mod Notes

Prodding AstralFlare.
Prodding Chrimi.
Prodding implosion.
Prodding Drone.
Prodding PenguinPower.
Prodding innnocentvillager :/

Nice job Cass!

	VOTECOUNT 3.2
Player	Being voted by (in chronological order)	Number of Votes
1. Cass
2. AstralFlare	Drone, Chrimi	2
3. PenguinPower
5. Drone	Cass	1
6. Chrimi
9. implosion	PenguinPower	1

Not voting: AstralFlare, implosion

Deadline to lynch is in (expired on 2016-09-19 19:32:54).

With 6 eligible to vote, it's 4 to lynch

Please let me know if there are errors in the VC, or have any other questions in general. Don't forget to bold such requests to me.

[implosion]

Weekend was weekend and today was a long day at work. Alas.

I think I won't be able to substantiate AF-town based on his last few posts beyond gut, which means it's not particularly strong. Re-reading the posts eh. It's not that big a deal and I can see some minor things in there that might be scum-motivated (describing his play the way he does, the way he talked about agreeing with cass) so

shrug

.

Chrimi, do you (still) think the Cass thing (the reason you unvoted her) was particularly strong?

Another note, Cass is taking on a tone of rhetoric which is very offputting:

We need to find a way out of this.

And of course, I really want you to be town. Because with you + me + Chrimi (+ the last townie) working together we'd have a good chance to eliminate the scum.

I'm also(if slowly) rereading and hoping to find anything that could help us fix this mess.

I'd love to say yes (because it is Drone, and because I'd love love love some certainty right now)

All of this came after I criticized Cass for coming off as too certain. It feels almost AtEish (and AtE isn't generally a scumtell but this is just kind of eugh). Idk if there's actually anything significant here alignment-wise.

[Chrimi]

Nah it wasn't particularly strong. I'm down for a Cass lynch.

[AstralFlare]

Crap. Didn't realize we were so tight with time.

Chrimi- you have to start explaining yourself. We know you're confirm town, but you staying silent on your reasoning isn't helping us. Talk to us. Why is Drone town? Why am I scum?

Cass-

I townread you partly because of the tone of your posts: calm, reasonable, honestly curious

Would you describe implosion's the same way?

Implosion-

I still think Cass is most likely scum because I see material reasons to townread all four but only really material reasons to scumread Cass so far that I really agree with.

What do you mean by material? Because earlier you said that your reads on Drone and I were both gut.

[Cass]

Ok, all I'm seeing is Imp subtly pushing Chrimi back towards my lynch and his win.

Chrimi, just answer my questions. If not for me then for PP, who also has a pretty certain drone+implosion scumread.

If for some reason you won't, just put your vote back on me.

UNVOTE: Drone
VOTE: Implosion That puts him back at L-2.

[AstralFlare]

uh.

Cass, do you have anything of that big imp post

[AstralFlare]

Because his ISO seems reasonably on reread.

[Cass]

@Astralflare: Implosion is calm and reasonable, but he also reads as very careful, not making strong connections to other players, sort of... I dunno... a

waiting

attitude. Like his last post: the game is potentially almost over, but he still has these very weak reads and leaves the pushing of wagons to others. He says things like, 'Cass does this thing, it's not really a tell, but, hey, maybe you still want to lynch her, Chrimi?' - yes, I'm aware this is read through my filter of being convinced he's scum.
It could be his personality / clashing playstyles, but it reads much more scummy to me than your attitude.

[AstralFlare]

Cass- Yes, I get that sense of waffling as well. But don't you think scum would be more confident today, and try to push a wagon through vigourously, instead of being noncommital like a townie afraid to mislynch?

[Cass]

No, I don't think so. Townies in our situation need to get better reads on the others. There are no more PR's to help us, and a mislynch means we lose immediately. So taking risks, provoking responses, forcing others to talk, is in towns interest.
Mafia right now just need to subtly manipulate, or wait, because all they need is two townies agreeing on the wrong person (whichever one). Or even not agreeing, they can safely wait another day, when it'd take only one wrong vote.

[Chrimi]

Chrimi- you have to start explaining yourself. We know you're confirm town, but you staying silent on your reasoning isn't helping us. Talk to us. Why is Drone town? Why am I scum?

I'm barely not V/LA and the game I'm modding takes priority, promise I'll do my best to read and such.

I really think implosion is a bad lynch.

[PenguinPower]

I'm going to catch up from the weekend this morning, but I just wanted to call out one of my major frustrations at this point:

and me and my scumbuddy managed to distance from each other very effectively, never really committing to lynching the other one but throwing enough suspicion towards each other that the town was hook,

You realize this is what you are doing with Cass? You keep citing reasons why you lean scum or read scum behavior, but you never vote. You never question, and you never push. Cass promised a long post on you, but never delivers. Instead, most of her posts are about townreading AF and why, even though the behavior she describes as towny for AF is similar to your behavior. Of course, Cass voted you so that's a little different...but it also looks like she's trying to pocket AF.

Leaving my vote where it is right now.

[AstralFlare]

Townies in our situation need to get better reads on the others. There are no more PR's to help us, and a mislynch means we lose immediately. So taking risks, provoking responses, forcing others to talk, is in towns interest.

VOTE: Cass

[AstralFlare]

6 days.

[AstralFlare]

but it also looks like she's trying to pocket AF.

yes I'm a little worried about this as well.

6 days