Mini 495 - Mafia on a Plane! GAME OVER! =)

[vollkan]

I seriously had to read this post about 5 times before it made sense. And when it did my jaw dropped.

Actually I have decided my post does not actually matter anymore. The way I see it, I will get lynched today and bam it's game over for me. Tomorrow the town lynches Orig, and then it's like.. 2: 1 and I could care less who wins anymore...

If you are town, your post is immensely important to us.

Yes, you will be lynched today; that doesn't mean "game over" for townKorlash. Tell us what you think! I can't work out what you mean wrt the Orig lynch. Could you explain how you derived the 2:1 scenario.

I will say this who ever has freaking saved Orig's ass the last two nights needs to be shot. I mean I am seriously under the impression the mafia have a doc or something...I mean the first time I just thought Oman had gotten RBed or something, but not twice.. I mean come on... So yeah... Watch out for that...

You're claiming vig now? That's pretty damn stupid.

Let me run through the reasons:
First of all, you pretend to be surprised that Orig was apparently protected, or that you were RBed twice. Your reasoning here is pitiful. It is now D3. There were 2 NKs on N1. How the heck could a vigging by yourself have failed if there were 2 NKs? The only way that would work is if there was mafia, SK and a vig. That's way overdoing the killing roles and means that if the game opened at 9:2:1, it would be possible for it to be reduced to 5:2:1 after just 1 mislynch.

Secondly, you were on the dybeck lynch wagon. He was the claimed cop. If you were vig, you would KNOW Orig to be mafia. Thus, you would know that dybeck could not be mafia (because he had been so fervent on Orig to the point of claiming cop and risking himself - which would out two scum). Thus, it would make no sense for you to sit in silence and let the cop be lynched.


Thirdly, you're suggesting that the set up is (at least):
1 x Cop
1 x Vig
1 x Tracker
6 x vanillas
1 x Mafia RB or Mafia Doctor
1 x mafia
1 x either vanilla or mafia
1 x SK

The setup was awful enough without the mafia power role. To suggest either a GF or doctor is to completely break it.

Fourth, and this one is in your favour: Oman had expressed moderate suspicion of Spurg.

Fifth, you and Oman should have been fighting tooth and nail against Orig.

Sixth, your scenario requires dybeck and Orig to be partners.

On balance I am definitely more inclined to believe Orig than you. Thus, my vote remains where it is.

Anyways... GL town I guess... My vote would go for Elias being Orig's partner. I only say that because I am trying to survive and of course saying I think the guy who can hammer me is likely scum is kinda dumb... Besides that I am getting serious town vibes from Gem *Puppy eyes* He is sooo awesome... I <3 him sooo much...

Oh very clever The last bit of this is blatantly you trying to play a WIFOM game by expressing ridiculously positive opinions of Gemelli.

Also:

I'll do my best in the morning... ^^ At least I get to see Elias burn tonight! Orig your my hero! >.-

?

[Streeflo]

Day 3 Votecount #41!

Korlash (2) - Elias_the_Thief, vollkan
Elias_the_Thief (1) - originality
originality (1) - Korlash

Not voting: Lucienne, spurgistan, Gemelli

With

7

alive it takes

4

to lynch!

spurgistan has been prodded

[Korlash]

Im not the vig I'm the freaking Sk... There is no vig... If there is then the mafia did not kill night one...

First of all, you pretend to be surprised that Orig was apparently protected, or that you were RBed twice. Your reasoning here is pitiful. It is now D3. There were 2 NKs on N1. How the heck could a vigging by yourself have failed if there were 2 NKs? The only way that would work is if there was mafia, SK and a vig. That's way overdoing the killing roles and means that if the game opened at 9:2:1, it would be possible for it to be reduced to 5:2:1 after just 1 mislynch.

um... Oman killed Spurg, mafia killed carrot... Did not fail night one... I failed last night in killing Orig... Yeah I think i somehow felt there has been three nights... Weird...

I had this whole thing planned from the start... I claim vig tomorrow, assuming I am still alive and assuming I failed in my kill on Orig yet again. I tired to leave a trail way back when where I supported the Vig a lot, while always trying to place Orig high on my lists. This way tomorrow, I could guarantee a mafia death. (either tonight or tomorrow) thus giving me more room to win. When I claimed just now this plan stuck in my mind thus giving me the thought I failed twice to kill Orig, and as i only remember doing it once I assumed Oman had passed another night.

Any pity points I hoped to win are now forgot, but oh well. Orig still dies tomorrow. You town just remember I gave you the chance to not be in lylo...

Secondly, you were on the dybeck lynch wagon. He was the claimed cop. If you were vig, you would KNOW Orig to be mafia. Thus, you would know that dybeck could not be mafia (because he had been so fervent on Orig to the point of claiming cop and risking himself - which would out two scum). Thus, it would make no sense for you to sit in silence and let the cop be lynched.

Sk man... Cop death = good thing... thank you and good night...

Liked how it worked out though... Cop dead and a mafia lynch.. nice... Good job on that one Orig... As I assume you once again made the kill seeing as how I somehow got blocked... doc I tell you... stupid...

Fifth, you and Oman should have been fighting tooth and nail against Orig.

Dude... Come on.. and out myself? are you nuts? I wanted to just kill him at night, as I feel Oman did too. Why bother? man... I thought you were a better player then this... Oh wait.. You thought I meant Vig.. ok... Never mind... That is my bad then...

Sixth, your scenario requires dybeck and Orig to be partners.

More likely then you and Dybeck that is for sure... But hey, what can i say? it is what it is... Perhaps that was Dybecks plan the entie time, either gain fame by looking like a good cop, saving his partner, or outing the real cop. Kinda win-semi win- win.

On balance I am definitely more inclined to believe Orig than you. Thus, my vote remains where it is.

Fine with me. I'm really hoping you guys lose in the second LYLO you come too as I will just laugh in your faces...

I'll do my best in the morning... ^^ At least I get to see Elias burn tonight! Orig your my hero! >.-

Part joke, part trying to get the RB off my ass should that be the case. Trying to throw my "support for Orig" in just in case I get my chance to kill him tonight...

[vollkan]

Im not the vig I'm the freaking Sk... There is no vig... If there is then the mafia did not kill night one...

Okay then. I assumed you meant vig, because I couldn't conceive of a SK claiming. I'll go back over what you say and my points to see if you being mafia is still most likely.

um... Oman killed Spurg, mafia killed carrot... Did not fail night one... I failed last night in killing Orig... Yeah I think i somehow felt there has been three nights... Weird...

Weird indeed

I had this whole thing planned from the start... I claim vig tomorrow, assuming I am still alive and assuming I failed in my kill on Orig yet again. I tired to leave a trail way back when where I supported the Vig a lot, while always trying to place Orig high on my lists. This way tomorrow, I could guarantee a mafia death. (either tonight or tomorrow) thus giving me more room to win. When I claimed just now this plan stuck in my mind thus giving me the thought I failed twice to kill Orig, and as i only remember doing it once I assumed Oman had passed another night.

First up, I still don't see how you messed up with the two NK thing. Your explanation here doesn't make sense.

Moreover, I don't even know if you would be stupid enough to concoct such an idiotic plan. Outing yourself as the SK = suicide; it doesn't make it any more likely you would win. In fact, it makes it less likely since you've gone from an unknown "SK" (note the inverted commas) to a known.

Any pity points I hoped to win are now forgot, but oh well. Orig still dies tomorrow. You town just remember I gave you the chance to not be in lylo...

One of you two is now confirmed mafia, and my money is on you. I'll kick myself if you actually are the SK, but Orig being mafia seems unlikely in the extreme after what dybeck went through.

Sk man... Cop death = good thing... thank you and good night...

You're right here. This fits with SKorlash.

Okay, the big argument about dybeck and Orig not likely being partners remains on foot. Korlash's claim still has Orig as mafia with dybeck. This just does NOT make sense. I'm usually fairly paranoid about distancing, but this would be ridiculous - not just bussing, but plain suicidal.

One of them IS mafia and I believe the evidence favours Korlash. I admit I could be wrong here, and that concerns me, but Korlash is most likely.

Now, what are the risks?

Well, let's look at the 4:2:1 situation first.

SK lynch =

SK lynch = 4:2:0
MafNK = 3:2
Lynch Maf Orig/Kor = 3:1
MafNK = 2:1

Not ideal. However, because Orig is outed, this scenario does not spell doom since we get a free mafia lynch.

Maf Lynch

Maf lynch = 4:1:1
MafNK town = 3:1:1
-SK NK town = 2:1:1 (SK, most likely Orig, loses)
-SK NK mafia = 3:0:1 (SK, most likely Orig, loses)
MafNK SK = 4:1:0
-SK NK town = 3:1
-SK NK mafia = 3:0 WIN!

This varies. Nonetheless, if the worst outcome (2:1:1) arises, we MUST no lynch.

What about 5:1:1?

SK lynch =

SK lynch = 5:1:0
MafNK = 4:1:0
Lynch Maf Orig/Kor = 4:0:0 WIN!

Mafia lynch =

Maflynch = 5:0:1
SKNK = 4:0:1
Lynch SK Orig/Kor = 4:0:0 WIN!

I personally believe Orig to be a vig and, importantly, find it immensely difficult to conceive of him being scum with dybeck.

[Gemelli]

Ha! Korlash, you kill me. This is the most contrived explanation I think you could have come up with.

I'm pretty sure that we've assessed the mafOrig possibility to death, and I think that possibility is remote in the extreme. If Orig was Mafia, when AlyG tracked him, Vig was the worst thing he could have claimed: RB would have been a safe claim. The consensus coming away from that discussion was that Orig was either Vig or SK, but not Mafia. We discussed this well before you replaced in, so I'm not surprised that you missed it.

Vollkan's right: one of the two of you is definitely Mafia. Those are easy odds for me to play. Thank you for making our deadline choice easier.

Vote: Korlash

Besides that I am getting serious town vibes from Gem *Puppy eyes* He is sooo awesome... I <3 him sooo much...

Yeaaaah. Dybeck did the same thing to me on D2 just before he got lynched (though without the Liberace-esque over the top approach). It didn't fly then, and I don't think it's going to fly now. Time will tell.

Vollkan:

Assuming that the Mafia may repeat their gambit of last night -- ignoring the claimed power roles and focusing on eliminating the consensus "most likely pro-town" player -- I believe that you are in danger tonight. The good news is that this would be highly risky on the Mafia's part: with a limited pool of potential Mafia to choose from, there's a very good chance that Spurgistan will strike gold with his tracking. Then there's the possibility that Originality will take a shot tonight, regardless of what we want him to do. So the Mafia would be taking not one, but two chances by targetting you, but it's still a possibility. I'd like you to consider mitigating this risk by summarizing lines of investigation you'd like us to pursue if Korlash comes up mafia vs. SK.

Spurgistan:

Have you had a chance to catch up? I'm interested in hearing your thoughts on the events of D3.

[Elias_the_thief]

Yeah, I'm fairly certain that you arent the SK, though if you were, claiming probably would be the right play. Regardless, I'm still happy with your lynch, it helps us either way (though i still hope youre scum not sk).

[spurgistan]

OK, here I am, bad exams over (honestly, I could give a damn if I fail Calculus) and responding to the nicest prod evar. Sorry for taking so damn long. Not used to not having to defend myelf, I guess.

Because I'm a bit weird in the head, I'm almost tempted to believe Korlash's SK claim, is this just a completely wrong idea? And if he is the SK, and we do have two scum left, as is the consensus, isn't he at least temporarily on our side? Granted, that doesn't explain why Orig claimed vig (and I know he visited carrotcake when she died, so that checks out), and we're pretty damn sure there aren't three killing roles, so maybe I need to check that. Well, we still have two days in which to hammer, and as I feel like I'm probably the hammer vote, I'll wait for a day. But we'd rather lynch mafia, anyway? Although killing the SK would get rid of one NK, and and that could be crucial, and I'm talking in awfully-written circles. Sorry.
in which case I believe we need to find out who the mafia is / are. I guess I need to get these questions out there fast, seeing as deadline's fast apporaching (35 hours from now, IIRC) So can somebody fill me in, bit? I've skimmed a few times, but I'm bad at that. Mostly, I've been trying to pick up any clues Shaft.ed may have left, and while I'm pretty sure he would have gone public with any guiltys, he doesn't seem to be particularly adamant about anybody's innocence.

[Gemelli]

When we reviewed shaft.ed's posts, we found that during D2, he rarely mentioned Lucienne at all, and when he did he seemed inclined to give her the benefit of the doubt. For most of the other players in the game, shaft.ed at least poked and prodded them from time to time with suspicions. But he did seem inclined to trust Vollkan overall.

I think it's fair to assume that whoever he investigated on N1, he got an innocent result, because he remained open to pursuing various lynch targets during the day. But I didn't see any cop breadcrumbs in his posts (even after the fact when I was actively looking for them), and it's possible that he was playing it low-key to stay alive.

As far as Korlash goes, the only thing I think is in his favor of his most recent claim is that Oman's play did at times seem consistent with that of an SK (I think I mentioned that on D2 at some point). But when you look at the scenario we're in, where either Originality or Korlash is definitely mafia, I think it's harder to make the case that Originality was aligned with Dybeck than it is to make the case that Oman/Korlash was. If Orig was killing on behalf of the Mafia, why would they send their most suspicious player to make the kill? And when AlyG tracked him, why didn't he claim RB instead of Vig (thereby painting a target on himself for the SK)?

[Korlash]

Fine with me then..

Unvote:, Vote Korlash

[b/]

Good game suckers. Good luck in LYLO.

Also Vollkan I find it odd you would say this:


"Moreover, I don't even know if you would be stupid enough to concoct such an idiotic plan. Outing yourself as the SK = suicide; it doesn't make it any more likely you would win. In fact, it makes it less likely since you've gone from an unknown "SK" (note the inverted commas) to a known.
"

When i seem o remember a time when you suggested the SK out themselves... Maybe it was Gem but I am fairly sure it was you... I may just go on a scavenger hunt to find out...

Anyways, good luck to Orig's partner. All I can say...

And when AlyG tracked him, why didn't he claim RB instead of Vig (thereby painting a target on himself for the SK)?

I'm telling you they have a doc... Either that or our doc is pretty stupid...

[vollkan]

I realise I need to hurry this post, after seeing that Korlash self-hammered after getting halfway through writing it.....

Vollkan: Assuming that the Mafia may repeat their gambit of last night -- ignoring the claimed power roles and focusing on eliminating the consensus "most likely pro-town" player -- I believe that you are in danger tonight. The good news is that this would be highly risky on the Mafia's part: with a limited pool of potential Mafia to choose from, there's a very good chance that Spurgistan will strike gold with his tracking. Then there's the possibility that Originality will take a shot tonight, regardless of what we want him to do. So the Mafia would be taking not one, but two chances by targetting you, but it's still a possibility. I'd like you to consider mitigating this risk by summarizing lines of investigation you'd like us to pursue if Korlash comes up mafia vs. SK.

I know that I am in serious danger. I'm wishfully hoping that the mafia may judge the threat of Spurg and Orig to be greater.

So let me run through a few other things out of the risk that this may be my last day.

Let me explain:
If Orig is vig....
Maflynch Kor = 5:1
MafNK N3 = 4:1
-Mislynch D4= 3:1
--MafNK N4 = 2:1
---Mislynch D5 = 1:1 LOSS unless Orig is around, in which case DRAW. (If Orig is around, mafia cannot quicklynch and hope to win)
---MafLynch D5 = 2:0 WIN
-No Lynch D4 = 4:1
--MafNK N4 = 3:1
---Mislynch D5 = 2:1 (which goes 1:1 with NK to a LOSS unless Orig is around. Again, with Orig, the mafia cannot quicklynch)
---MafLynch D5 = 3:0 WIN!
-MafLynch D4 = 4:0

In the above circumstances, I think No Lynch would be a dreadful idea, for the simple reason that we have a situation of "known unknowns" (:)), or we believe we do. By this, I mean that we have already deduced where the mafia are most likely to be with considerable (and, imho, justified) confidence. All a No Lynch will achieve is to cause us to lose one of Spurg, Orig or myself. As you can see above, we have 2 nights left in this game (The mafia has a NK on N5 after a D5 mislynch following a D4 No Lynch, but unless Orig is still around, they stand to win automatically in this situation so it doesn't apply for this discussion)

This is important, we have 3 people who are not foreseeably going to be lynched - AlyG, Orig and myself. Orig needs to be eliminated ASAP, since as long as he is around he will be able to stop the mafia quicklynching, regardless of how secure they think they are. Moreover, Spurg also poses an obvious and immediate threat to them. If the mafia choose to NK me tonight, they are really pressured to NK Orig tomorrow (they do not need to, but it prevents a quicklynch and Orig's presence would be able to prevent). Thus, they keep Spurg alive, which is obviously a huge risk.

//If I have time, I will do the SK scenario after saying other things, but I want to finish this first //

If Korlash comes up SK, Orig is mafia and should be lynched. I don't think this will happen, but whatever. Partner is out of Elias, Gemelli and Lucienne.

If Korlash comes up mafia, my top suspect will be Elias (the links to dybeck, the pissing match with Korlash, the dual anti-Gemelli stuff, etc.) followed by Gemelli (links to dybeck with the devil's advocacy and the links raised by Elias) and then Lucienne (a real enigma who is troubling me considerably. I don't find her suspicious, but her unknown-ness is concerning)

[vollkan]

Next post (doing this bit-by-bit):

Let me explain:
If Orig is SK in the 4:2:1 situation...

Maf Kor lynch D3 = 4:1:1
MafNK town N3 = 3:1:1
-SK NK town N3 = 2:1:1 (SK, most likely Orig, loses. We need cross-kills to win)
-SK NK mafia N3 = 3:0:1 WIN! (since SK is Orig and we know who to lynch)
MafNK SK N3 = 4:1:0
-SK NK town N3= 3:1
--Mislynch D4 = 2:1 (LOSS. Since the NK makes it 1:1)
--No Lynch D4 = 3:1
---MafNK N4 = 2:1 (LYLO)
-SK NK mafia N3 = 3:0 WIN!

Okay. Here we see that the mafia has even more of an imperative to eliminate Orig. Keeping him alive simply means that the situation is either in 2:1:1 or 3:0:1.

Now, in the 5:1:1 scenario:
Mafia lynch Korlash D3 = 5:01
SKOrig NK = 4:0:1

[vollkan]

Because I'm a bit weird in the head, I'm almost tempted to believe Korlash's SK claim, is this just a completely wrong idea? And if he is the SK, and we do have two scum left, as is the consensus, isn't he at least temporarily on our side? Granted, that doesn't explain why Orig claimed vig (and I know he visited carrotcake when she died, so that checks out), and we're pretty damn sure there aren't three killing roles, so maybe I need to check that. Well, we still have two days in which to hammer, and as I feel like I'm probably the hammer vote, I'll wait for a day. But we'd rather lynch mafia, anyway? Although killing the SK would get rid of one NK, and and that could be crucial, and I'm talking in awfully-written circles. Sorry.

One of Orig and Korlash is mafia.

If Korlash is SK, obviously Orig is mafia. It is not totally ridiculous that dybeck could be mafia with Orig - just a very unlikely level of distancing. That said, dybeck was easily persuaded to swap to Oman, which possibly suggests alignment with Orig...This is really reaching Anyway, we find out after Korlash is lynched.

Also Vollkan I find it odd you would say this:


"Moreover, I don't even know if you would be stupid enough to concoct such an idiotic plan. Outing yourself as the SK = suicide; it doesn't make it any more likely you would win. In fact, it makes it less likely since you've gone from an unknown "SK" (note the inverted commas) to a known.
"

When i seem o remember a time when you suggested the SK out themselves... Maybe it was Gem but I am fairly sure it was you... I may just go on a scavenger hunt to find out...

Yeah. I think I did suggest the SK out themself. And yes, that would be suicide. Shock horror! I tried to trick any potential SK into revealing themself

[originality]

Ok, my brain just imploded trying to understand what korlash is trying to say.

First of all, the idea that I'm mafia is absolutely insane.

Second of all, there is no sk. So you just jumped to 100% scum in my mind.

vote Korlash

I have no idea what you are trying to do but I'm sure you can't be town at this point. It's impossible he is a sk, the implications would be crazy. If Oman got blocked first night, fine, but since the mafia saw that there were 2 nks they should have reasoned Oman was not a nkiller, and had no reason to block him second night. Nothing makes sense in what you said.

[originality]

Oh I guess thats hammer, hadn't noticed Gemelli's vote. Not that it would make much difference in today to tomorrow other then to speed things up, so I regret nothing.

[originality]

Ok I'm stupid and didn't see Korlash's self vote either. Did mine even count? Whatever. So no kill for me tonight right?

[Korlash]

ha ha ha ha ha ha...

Ahhh... i love it when a plan comes together... i'll see you in the deadzone tomorrow Orig... Didn't actually see you being dumb enough to kill yourself off like that but oh well... I suppose getting rid of the Sk and a towny was worth it eh?

Good luck town, you will need it...

[Korlash]

No Orig.. you need to kill... kill... Kill... Um... Kill Vollkan... Why not he has to be scum with Dybeck... No wait... kill gem! He needs to die cause he is scum... No kill Lucienne.. lurkers = scum!.. no Kill Elias... he is obviously your scum partner... Or kill yourself as you are scum...

[originality]

Dude, I really don't understand what you're saying. Especially that first post. How am I killing myself? How am I getting rid of a SK AND a townie? I'm confused. Your second post I can tell is just crazy talk.

[Korlash]

No your crazy talk...

[Streeflo]

End of Day 3 Votecount #42!

Korlash (5) - Elias_the_Thief, vollkan. Gemelli, Korlash, originality

Not voting: Lucienne, spurgistan

And with that final show, everyone crowds around Korlash, looking grim and determined. Korlash looks around, and starts smiling.
"Hahaha fools, you'll never be the death of me!" he shouts, running to the pressure door. Too bad he trips and hits his head on the way there.
Someone from the crowd runs over and takes Korlash's pulse. "He's dead!" he cried!
"Wait, so who was he really?"
A note and a knife falls out of Korlash's pocket. It reads: "Korlash. Make sure to bring your stop sign along when we board the plane. It might come in handy. -Dybeck."
A quick luggage check reveals the stop sign mentioned in the note. Well, it's clear that

Korlash,

Mafia Roleblocker

was in cahoots with Dybeck after all. Another scum off the plane!
BUT SUDDENLY, THE LIGHTS TURN OFF. OH NO!!!

I will try to look for a replacement for Lucienne
Day 3 will start on Wednesday 12/12. Night actions are due before then.

[Streeflo]

The overhead lights flash once,

then remain on... dimly.

Day 4 has begun!

Everyone looks around in a panic. There had been a horrible scream during the dark. Who had died?

It wasn't long before everyone's worst fears were confirmed. There lay

originality's

body on the floor. It was still oozing blood, probably because of the knife sticking out of his stomach.

"Erm-.. someone check the body. I'm not touching that thing."
"Fine you pansy."

A passenger crept over to the still body, reaching tentatively for the pockets. He pulled out a wallet, and read originality's ID card.

Originality- Once strangled two burglars to death when they tried to rob his house. Case ruled as self-defense. Warning: May be unstable and subject to take matters into his own hands.

It was a solemn affair as the passengers helped throw the body of

originality-

Town Vigilante

out the door to remove the stink. The passengers looked at each other warily, with only 5 still alive and evil still aboard the plane. IT WAS TIME TO GO LYNCH!

With

5

alive it takes

3

to kick someone until they are dead.

Albert B. Rampage

replaces

Lucienne

[Gemelli]

Woo hoo, two down!

With the Originality Vig/SK wildcard wrapped up, it seems most likely that we're looking at a 4:1 setup. Which ought to make things quite a bit simpler.

Spurgistan:

Who did you track last night, and what were the results?

And welcome to the game, ABR. What's your take on the players that are remaining?

[spurgistan]

I didn't get anybody visiting Originality, I generally prefer to keep innocent investigation results to myself until I have to publicize them.

[Albert B. Rampage]

FoS: Gemelli

for celebrating after a night where the vig died.

[Albert B. Rampage]

And welcome to the game, ABR. What's your take on the players that are remaining?

So far I'm looking at you lol, but I'm just about 20 pages in the game, still reading.