Mini 1869- camn's revenge GAME OVER!

[drealmerz7]

pk

1 post max per single thought please man

[pisskop]

Gotta get my Post Count up man.

[pisskop]

Youve seen how I look as scum, not witness the glory of TownKop

[pisskop]

Who's super town btdubs

[drealmerz7]

but posts inflated with poop is no good

quality not quantity

[drealmerz7]

how I look as scum

[pisskop]

No it is.

Its

✧ (ﾉ ◕Д◕)ﾉ*:･ﾟ✧

Meta

✧:･ﾟ✧

[SirCakez]

There is only a few people here that i have played games with, one of them being Dreal. If anyone else posted like Dreal has been i would look at those posts as a bit scummy but, i mean really, it is just Dreal being Dreal so i take whatever he says with a grain of salt but that can only last for so long.

I am attempting to get a feel of the players since this is the first time i have played with a majority of you all. Two questions arise for me.

1) Normally i would have a townlean toward Mastina because of the content she produced early but this is camn's revenge and it seems nothing is normal. My question: Does Mastina post these analytical posts a high majority of the time no matter alignment or is this a rare thing?

2) Mastina has basically excluded a small group of players due to her views toward how Pine would select the scum. To me this isnt an attempt to shade them from gazing eyes because if Mastina flipped scum then all eyes would be on tbose players. I think it is an actual pool of players that she has actually wrote off. She also said that both Nacho and herself cant be scum together for reasons she has explained multiple times. We really cant rule anyone out as its all WIFOM. Did Pine pick players he knew the majority would not think of or did he double back and pick players that are too obvious to be on his team. My question: Do you think the majority of Mastina's posts are genuine or fabricated to line up the lynches the way she wants?

She has obviously produced enough reasoning already, posted or not, to adjust her reads if one flips town. I can see it now, a wall sized bulletin board with pins and strings leading everywhere. If she is town, i can see someone flipping an alignment she didnt produce so she corrects her massive read board to calculate in how they flipped. If she is scum, she has piles of notes to justify why her read was wrong and line up another lynch. I mean, its basically all WIFOM pertaining to my view on Mastina also.

Schrödinger's Pine Box, did he choose Mastina or is Mastina a town asset? You wont know until its opened. Like "Yeah, no, the cats dead, we forgot to punch air holes."

Mastin could be scum or could be town, who knows? = this post basically
What do YOU think?

[Secret Agent Jin]

*snip*

Mastin could be scum or could be town, who knows? = this post basically
What do YOU think?

I apologize, i thought i conveyed my thoughts well in the post. Basically, Mastina'a posts to me don't tell us if she is town and doing a lot of work to game solve early or if she is scum and is doing a lot of work to set up the days how she wants them to play out. All that her posts so far tell us is that she is putting tons of information out in order to be able to cherry pick things from those posts later to pair with what people do, be that pro-town actions or anti-town actions i have no clue. She is brilliant though because you better bet that no matter happens, those posts will be used, be it If she herself returns to them or everyone else combs through them once there is a flip or two.

[camn]

VOTE COUNT 1 . 2

• Secret Agent Jin ---
  0 ( )
  L- 7
  
  
  BTD6_MAKER ---------
  0 ( )
  L- 7
  
  
  TheRealGin-N-Tonic -
  0 ( )
  L- 7
  
  
  Nachomamma8 --------
  0 ( )
  L- 7
  
  
  Fate ---------------
  0 ( )
  L- 7
  
  
  drealmerz7 ---------
  3 ( Vaxkiller, Aeronaut, pisskop, Pine )
  L- 4
  
  
  Monokuma -----------
  0 ( )
  L- 7
  
  
  mastina ------------
  2 ( drealmerz7, SirCakez, )
  L- 5
  
  
  Aeronaut -----------
  0 ( )
  L- 7
  
  
  Prism --------------
  0 ( )
  L- 7
  
  
  SirCakez -----------
  2 ( Monokuma, Fate, )
  L- 5
  
  
  Vaxkiller ----------
  0 ( )
  L- 7
  
  
  pisskop ------------
  0 ( )
  L- 7
  
  
  
  Not Voting -
  6 ( Secret Agent Jin, BTD6_MAKER, TheRealGin-N-Tonic, Nachomamma8,
  mastina, Prism, )

With 13 alive, it takes 7 to Lynch
Deadline is in (expired on 2017-01-22 18:00:00)

[pisskop]

Hop on the Caught Scum Express kthnx

[BTD6_maker]

Votes now matter, so this vote will now have genuine weight.

VOTE: Mastina

[camn]

over 14 days? geebus

real towns don't need deadlines to find a rope.

[Monokuma]

Spoiler:

Fate!

Why don't you share with the class what you've learned! After all, questions lead to answers, and answers lead to knowledge, and knowledge is power! And I love power! Tell us everything!

Votes now matter, so this vote will now have genuine weight.

VOTE: Mastina

Okay buster, you better start shaping up! You wouldn't want me to have to push punishment time up ahead of schedule, would you? Because I wouldn't. Bears are VERY particular about scheduling events. And it REALLY annoys us when you make us start doing things out of order! So listen closely!

Stop voting based on pregame speculation of who Pine would and wouldn't pick. Stop it! Stop it now! It's useless speculation, you're not going to drive home a lynch based on that, so just stop bothering! Give us some actual content or you're gonna be in a world of hurt! An entire world! And the name of that world will be BTD6ia, and the temperature will always be too hot or too cold! Never temperate! It will be awful!

[Aeronaut]

Well, uh, isn't he doing the opposite?

[Aeronaut]

He's voting mastina which would mean he's rejecting the setup spec right?

[Monokuma]

VOTE: Mastina

It seems like you have played a lot of games with Pine. (I am completely ignoring posts made by Pine). At this early stage I would consider you marginally more likely to be scum.

[drealmerz7]

over 14 days? geebus

real towns don't need deadlines to find a rope.

agree I'm used to playing with no deadlines often enough

but I've noticed ppl on MS like to dilly as long as possible for no reason other than fear, so, it's a bit daunting

I'm good though

[drealmerz7]

yeah I'm not really draft-speccing but more thinking mastina outed themselves as scum for doing the draft-speccing in the manner and with the content that they did it with- I can't help that that is the content that is helping me form my reads, but it's not the speccing of the draft itself that is forming the read

[pisskop]

I think youre missing the point.

Its not about not having deadlines, its about wrapping it up b

[Aeronaut]

VOTE: Mastina

It seems like you have played a lot of games with Pine. (I am completely ignoring posts made by Pine). At this early stage I would consider you marginally more likely to be scum.

Oh.

Well then can you answer my other question from before?

[pisskop]

whats this draft I keep hearing about?

[drealmerz7]

reading

comprehension

[pisskop]

Thats a crappy answer

Is that why Im a vig?

[mastina]

it's unfortunate your scum game isn't as refined, you should play more

Case'n'point that you don't know me.

My scumgame is the most refined of any player on mafiascum. There's a damn good reason I was nominated for Don Corelone on consecutive years. (I lost both times, but I was nommed all the same.) You'll never find a player more self-conscious about their own meta than me. You'll never see a player who better knows what she can do, what she can't do, what she does and can't replicate/hide as an alignment, and what she does that can be replicated/hidden as an alignment*.

There's a reason why I take elements from my scumgame when playing town. No seriously. I deliberately take elements from my scumgame into my towngame. Rather than vice-versa. You know why I take elements from my scumgame into my towngame, rather than elements of my towngame into my scumgame? Because my scumgame needs nothing to improve; my towngame needs desperately to improve.

About once every year or two, I'll crave a scum game to show off my skills, demonstrate this first-hand. "You think I suck as scum? HA. Well, HERE YA GO, THIS GAME SHOWS YOU WHY I DON'T." Now while I did come in this game quite frankly expecting to be scum, I don't actually have a need to show off my skills. This game was recent enough that I can say, "that's what I can do as scum". Where in spite of being

confirmed scum

, our lover didn't vote for us for days. DAYS. Despite us being 100% confirmed absolutely to be confscum. We had them so thoroughly fooled (and that was all me), it took them a long time to accept it. I mean, yeah, we didn't win that game: we were, after all, CONFIRMED SCUM. There was no way to wiggle out of it. But the fact that we almost did in spite of the game being literally impossible for us to win should tell you something about my manipulation skills as scum.

So there's damn good reason I prefer town: because my towngame? Yeah, not so stellar, that. It's what I need to improve on, so it's my preferred alignment and also what I am most enthusiastic about. As scum, it's generally a given: "Oh, I'm going to win this game". Or lose it purely by a combination of bad luck and unfortunate mechanics in play, as it so happened, but close enough. As town, I have to fight every step of the way.

I will likely direct efforts elsewhere since tunneling on you on D1 is about 100000x more likely to get me lynched more than you

No, because I am insanely mislynchable as town. Like, ridiculously mislynchable as town. Like, I get mislynched more often than I live. Like, basically the only time I don't get mislynched is when I'm either nightkilled and/or conftown of some sort. You can push a wagon through on me if you wanted to. You also can't be lynched because fuck that, I'll fight every step of the way to keep you alive.

where do you think I should direct them? TRGNT, eh?

Or Aeronaut, or Nacho.

anywhere but you, I'm sure

Quite the opposite. Fuck focusing on Btd6, Fate, Monokuma, pisskop, Prism, SirCakez, or Vaxkiller. All that'll do is serve to demonstrate what we already know: you're town, they're town, your efforts there would be town-town, and thus a waste of time.

*Speaking of which, time for the obligatory plug of the flowchart. What flowchart, you may ask? This one, of course!

Here, for your reading pleasure, might as well quote this.

I think everyone should make one of these. Especially mastin.

Actually...I have.

I've been meaning to post it, too. It's about a year out of date, though, but I started compiling a way around Mafia with the Quickness 2 called, "How to read Mastin: the flowchart".

Spoiler: Stuff about it

The flowchart, while half a year old in its latest version, still applies more than it doesn't, by the way.
I'll condense it down for you, though:
If Mastin is scum, accept the loss; she's going to win regardless of what you do. So treat her like town.
If Mastin is town, then she is town. Treat her as town. If she wants to be listened to, listen to her and trust her instincts. If she doesn't tell you to listen to her, take her words with a grain of salt; they're reads but not solid ones.
BAM.
You now know how to treat Mastin.
Will work out for you nearly every single game.

Summary. I think I realized my problem with Mastin. Her reads are changing very quickly and they're moving on a very, very wide scale.

Helpful hint, you have absolutely no reason to trust me on this right now, but this is a MASSIVE towntell for me. On the "how to read Mastin: the flowchart" I made (I need to track down the most up-to-date version), it's one of the primary items, in fact. The reason? Town Mastin doesn't have a clue what's going on. Her reads are in a state of constant flux, specifically because of that, and her own self-doubt, paranoia, and whatnot betrays her, as she constantly second-guesses herself and reevaluates, rethinks, and redoes stuff. In contrast, scuMastin has absolute control of the game. Whereas town-Mastin is defined by inconsistency, scuMastin is defined by consistent, solid, controlled, calculated play. She keeps the same reads as much as possible, because it serves to antagonize the least number of players. She is calm, collected, and cool. She is strategic. She is focused. Her thoughts are logical and precise, because she has a good handle on the game, and thus, her mind does not betray her.

Or in short, the difference between town and scum is the difference between chaos and order. Now, obviously, this isn't absolute. There have been towngames where I've felt in control, rare as they may be. There have been scumgames where I was chaotic, either by circumstances or in one or two cases me faking my town chaos convincingly. But it IS a fairly solid general guideline. I know what I'm doing as scum; I'm just taking my best guess and throwing stuff at the wall to see what sticks as town.

I bet she has quite a few "playstyles" (and she knows, I think, why I'm saying this.)

Indeed I do. Fairly certain I said so already in this game, too, the reason why: because my play in games is fluid, thanks to situational awareness. While I might not know what's going on as town, I can generally feel out the game and have an idea for what will work best, adapting to have a playstyle specific to that game. It's mildly helpful, since it lets me hone in on scum better, but situational awareness mostly helps me as scum, because as scum, adapting my play to the game when I have more info than my town self does is

lethally

effective.

Though that does remind me, I need a point in there about focusing on scumhunting.

I find her posts coming from a mostly town point of view and she has a genuine interest in finding scum.

Right, that's another one I need to add in.

How To Read Mastin

:

Are you zMuffinman?

Yes-->Screw tells, you know mastin's alignment instantly.
No-->

Are you AngryPidgeon?

Yes-->Screw tells, you know mastin's alignment instantly.
No-->

Are you a player who has hydraed or has otherwise worked well with Mastin?

Yes-->You likely don't need the chart, but because you're not that familiar with her, you should probably go through it anyway as a precaution.
No-->You REALLY need to go through the chart; proceed! But fair warning in advance that it's only about 90% accurate.

Is/Are zMuffinman/AP in the game?

Yes-->Sheep them on their read! Never doubt it.
No-->Think like them and continue on.

THE FLOWCHART:

Is it D1?
Yes-->...And you're suspicious of Mastin?!?
She's town.
No-->Is it D2? Yes-->She's prob-town.
No-->Is it D3 or later? Yes-->Proceed.

Does Mastin look town?

No-->She's town.
Yes-->Proceed to next step.

Trust her as town.

What does she do?

Get paranoid of you-->She's town.
Enthusiastically work with you-->probably town, but proceed anyway as a precaution.
Nothing-->probably town, but proceed anyway as a precaution.
Milk your townread and bully you-->Proceed.

Suddenly pressure her.

What does she do?

Freak out-->She's town.
Show concern, but subdued-->probably town, but proceed anyway as a precaution.
Brush it off-->Proceed.

Is she posting up a storm?

Yes-->probably town, but proceed anyway as a precaution.
No-->Proceed.

Is she gloating how good her scumgame is?

Yes-->probably town, but proceed anyway as a precaution.
No-->Proceed.

Does Mastin have delusions of grandeur?

Yes-->probably town, but proceed anyway as a precaution.
No-->Proceed.

Is she waffling...
...A lot?

Yes-->She's town.
Sorta?-->probably town, but proceed anyway as a precaution.
No-->Proceed.

Does she look like she's trying to leave a legacy?

Yes-->She's town.
Maybe-->probably town, but proceed anyway as a precaution.
No-->Proceed.

Is she antagonizing everyone?

Yes-->She's town.
No-->Proceed.

Has Mastin rambled at all on MD theory?

Yes-->She's town.
No-->Proceed.

Is Mastin making a case for why she could be scum?
Yes-->She's town.
Kinda?-->Prob-town, but proceed anyway as a precaution.
No-->Proceed.

Is Mastin making very strong reasons why she's town?
No-->She's town.
Kinda-->Prob-town, but proceed anyway as a precaution.
Yes-->Proceed.

If applicable, did she 'crumb her role and/or claim it openly and immediately?

Yes-->She's town.
Maybe-->probably town, but proceed anyway as a precaution.
No-->Proceed.

Do the circumstances behind her play and/or claim look town?

Yes-->She's town.
Maybe-->probably town, but proceed anyway as a precaution.
No-->Proceed.

Is she irrational?

Yes-->She's town.
Maybe-->probably town, but proceed anyway as a precaution.
No-->Proceed.

Is she spewing random illogical theories?

Yes-->probably town, but proceed anyway as a precaution.
No-->Proceed.

Does her posting look intentional?

No-->She's town.
Yes-->Proceed.

Is she spontaneous, random, and/or whimsical?

Yes-->She's town.
Maybe?-->probably town, but proceed anyway as a precaution.
No-->Proceed.

Is her tone flat?

No-->probably town, but proceed anyway as a precaution.
Yes-->Proceed.

(BONUS:

If Mastin is behind, does she demonstrate knowledge of the

current

gamestate she could not reasonably have at her supposed point of reference?

No-->She's town.
It's hard to say...-->She probably does know, but not much, having likely skimmed offline, not logged in, and chose not to get the full context to spoiler her as probable-town.
Yes-->Proceed.)

And finally...

Is there minimal resistance to lynching her?

Yes-->She's town; defend her!
...Maybe?-->You've gotten this far and the best you've got is a "maybe"?!? You dummy, run through it again! (But she's probably town anyway.)-->All other factors equal, if you're having this much trouble reading Mastin, just freakin' assume she's town. (She likely is, anyway.)-->FOR THE LOVE OF GODS, SHE'S TOWN, DANG IT.
No-->She's probably scum...but you should run through the flowchart one more time just to be sure, as a precaution.

Is Mastin's posting wildly inconsistent?
Yes-->She's town.
Maybe?-->Probably town, but proceed anyway.
No-->Proceed.)

(Oh, and I think rambling in-thread's already there*, but if not, it should be.)
*Relies on scum having daychat. Scum have daychat, in-thread rambling = decent towntell. Scum don't have daychat, rambling = prob-null, maybe slight townlean. Scum daychat ambiguous, assume slight townlean.

(Oh, should be noted. Last scum, rambling in-thread gets upgraded to major towntell, since scuMastin typically keeps rambles to the scum QT about why she's screwed.)

Totally should just, in general, take this policy about me.
There's a flowchart that I plan to publish that will give better tells for reading me in general, some of which are timeless, others which are in contemporary site meta, but valuable all the same. Until it's actually published, though, the general policy I have on reading me is, increasingly, becoming:

Just assume I'm town until you have a REALLY solid reason not to. You'll be right the VAST majority of the time, by sheer probability alone.

(In fact, beyond probability. Probability says I should be scum a minimum of 25% of the time. 2014's been something like half that overall.)

It'll save you a BUNDLELOADS of headaches.

(Should be noted that my record was 34 games IN A ROW as town and my scumgame remains STILL below statistical probability in numbers.)

"If you're townreading Mastin, lynch her. She's scum, having successfully predicted your movements and is manipulating you. You fell into her trap, hook, line, and sinker.
If you're scumreading Mastin, she's town; save her from the lynch. She's probably either really onto something or really lost. In either case, she needs your help, either to sheep her or help her develop more accurate reads."

Some of them are out of date thanks to contextual meta shifts, but most of them still apply.

(Note of course that the flowchart is never 100% accurate. It's impossible, literally impossible, to display all of them in a single game since many of them are in fact slightly contradictory, but the point is to see as many as possible and if the majority matches town or scum. This chart has been in play for quite a while, now, and to this date, in spite of no active attempts to uphold it and some attempts as scum to subvert it, remains highly relevant to my play. It goes to prove my point, though: scuMastin always has this laser-like focus. Anything Goes in particular, until I faked having my confidence shattered, I was pushing for a specific lynch. In games like Resistance where I was the last living scum in lylo, I wove a narrative specific to one player being scum because I held focus. In my entire scumgame career, holding focus has done nothing but serve me well. Losing focus has done nothing but screw me over. Because guess what? People like focus. They like confidence. They love to see assurance in a read. They want to have a figure be charismatic and to follow. It's an inherent part of people's nature. That's why tunneling is so prevalent, because it works DAMN good and well to get a lynch. People hate doubt. When someone is calling everyone town/scum in rapid circles, AKA circlejerking, people think it's scum trying to mislynch anyone. They see desperation and attribute it to being scum. They don't see a town player desperately trying to figure out the game. They see a scum player that is trying to find options. So damn fucking straight. Maybe someday I'll flail as scum. It could in theory be this game. But in practice? Fuck no. As scum I'd push a lynch through; as town, here I am without a clue.)

(I really need to also add a section in there about explicitly blowing up.
I don't think I've ever thrown f-bombs around as scum freely, aside from some trolling in L4D when I literally claimed scum in-thread once I realized Molla had a guilty on me.
As town, you'll note, I go absolutely ballistic, and for damn fucking good reason. Lynching me has never done a town favors, ESPECIALLY not in the lategame.)

^That's how. ('Course, the flowchart was developed for single-ball games. I actually have no clue myself how well it does or doesn't hold up in multiball.)

(I just realized that an item not on the flowchart but which should be is how I explain my reads:
"Does she explain her reads in crystal clarity?
No-->Almost certainly town, though you can proceed as a precaution just in case.
...Maybe?-->Probably town, but proceed anyway.
Yes-->Proceed.")

Not included: "Is she doing anything?"
Yes-->Well, go read what she's doing, dummy!
No-->She's probably fighting a flake.

Doesn't tell you alignment, but is useful to have on there anyway.