Large Normal 199: L'Hôtel Pleuvoir (Fin)

[Aj The Epic]

Uh I'm on VLA but still kinda here tonight (and tomorrow night).

Titus, I don't think Alisae takes that shot honestly. Is there any normal role that would switch an obvious shot off a person like redirector that would require scum to guess the TARGET (not the shooter)?

[Elbirn]

Sonia is unlikely due to Cloudkicker analysis, which is so far pretty accurate.

Convince me on Sonia pretty please. I still need to do some more of my own work there but I've been steadily going down a dark tunnel of confbias while thinking about tywin/sonia.

According to Cephrir's vote counts, CloudKicker only ever voted for players who have already flipped town, and once voted me and you, pine. Which seems a bit of weak evidence for you being town.

What's the analysis for sonia being town?

.....wait we already talked about this he tried to push sonia and voted her *why the hell isn't that in the mods vote counts I remember everything but the vote counts lie*

Fuckit I'm going to bed bye

[Pine]

Pine do you think Cloud incriminated Kyouko?

Entirely inconclusive. CK was pretty neutral on them, but seemed to be buddying up in some posts. The buddying could be construed as trying to foster a Town ally, or it could be supporting a scum comrade, or any number of other things. So like I said, inconclusive.

Is there something in particular you'd like to point to that you think indicates otherwise? (genuine curiosity)

PEdit:

I just went through Cloudkicker's ISO looking for references to Sonia, and concluded that she's not scum with CK. CK started out aggressive and attacking with her, then ended up giving her a blanket TR and supporting her in a couple of places. That reads to me like someone who is looking to push an attack, seeing it not working, then shifting gears to turn them into an ally. Given that Cloudkicker knew scums' identities, it rules her out too.

Personally, this gives me solid TRs on Gamma, Alisae (with the caveat that she is either Vig or SK), Nero, and Sonia, in addition to TRs on Titus and Cabd.

Primary scumread is Tywin, based mostly off of Cloudkicker's ISO, need to drill down on some more. Honestly, though, with so many quality Townreads, it makes PoE a lot easier.

[Pine]

Seriously, analysis of the Traitor's ISO is clearly what will make or break this game. The guy knew the scum, but the scum didn't know him, and he was trying to make contact. It's the key to this whole thing. Notice how bloody HARD it has been to push on Tywin? No cooperation. See why Sonia, Gamma, and Nero* keep popping up? I'm pretty sure my scumpool is down to {Tywin, Elbirn, AJ}. They're pretty much the only people left not ruled out, and there's two scum in there.

My guess is Tywin and Elbirn, but it could be Tywin and AJ.

*My SR on Nero at the end of D3 completely forgot about the Cloudkicker analysis. It's subtle, but it's there. CK was trying to get him lynched on the same wavelength as his pushes on Gamma and Sonia - exploratory, testing to see if he could get a wagon started.

[Titus]

Seriously, analysis of the Traitor's ISO is clearly what will make or break this game. The guy knew the scum, but the scum didn't know him, and he was trying to make contact. It's the key to this whole thing. Notice how bloody HARD it has been to push on Tywin? No cooperation. See why Sonia, Gamma, and Nero* keep popping up? I'm pretty sure my scumpool is down to {Tywin, Elbirn, AJ}. They're pretty much the only people left not ruled out, and there's two scum in there.

My guess is Tywin and Elbirn, but it could be Tywin and AJ.

*My SR on Nero at the end of D3 completely forgot about the Cloudkicker analysis. It's subtle, but it's there. CK was trying to get him lynched on the same wavelength as his pushes on Gamma and Sonia - exploratory, testing to see if he could get a wagon started.

I do not see CK attempting to lynch Nero.

I think Elbrin Nero is who I want roped

[Elbirn]

Titus you have 3 days of data now, give us your vca

Also stop shading me it's garbage

[Elbirn]

Pine: I'm going to go through CK's iso when I can and see if I see what you see. My belly-feels still feel good about tywin/sonia team.

When we lynch Tywin and he flips red, i'll go over why exactly you thinking me and him are buddies is really dumb, if necessary, but lort pine don't do this to me just lynch scum

I agree that CK analysis is crucial, overall we all haven't been playing smart. I even said I wanted to start playing smarter and then proceeded to do fuck all about it. Today we start playing mafia 4 real. CK and nos analysis is key. I'll also be looking at tywin and Sonia under a microscope while I'm at it.

I think we should figure out why CK was night killed. Before I'd have said he was killed for having on point reads, but now that literally everyone he's voted for has flipped town, *shrug shoulders, fart noise* so it must be something else. Scum doesn't kill for nothing.

[Titus]

@Elbrin, stop being so scummy. I gave you my initial impression. Now if the vig would have been more helpful *grumbles*.

I am doing the full thing now

[Titus]

Spoiler: VCs

Votecount 1.1

Alisae 3 (Aj The Epic, Nosferatu, Lapsa)

Lapsa 2 (Pine, Gamma Emerald)

Cabd 1 (Lapsa)
Tywin Lannister 1 (Alisae)
Titus 1 (xSoniaNevermindx)

Not Voting 9 (everyone else)

Votecount 1.2

Lapsa 5 (Pine, Gamma Emerald, Titus, Alisae, Elbirn)
Alisae 4 (Aj The Epic, Nosferatu, Lapsa, Tywin Lannister)
Elbirn 2 (Lil Uzi Vert, xSoniaNevermindx)
Gamma Emerald 1 (Cabd)

Not Voting 5 (Nero Cain, Transcend, mozamis, ssbm_Kyouko, CloudKicker)

With 17 alive, it takes 9 to lynch.

Votecount 1.3

Elbirn 6 (Lil Uzi Vert, xSoniaNevermindx, Aj The Epic, ssbm_Kyouko, Transcend, CloudKicker)
Lapsa 5 (Pine, Gamma Emerald, Titus, Alisae, Elbirn)
Alisae 3 (Nosferatu, Lapsa, Tywin Lannister)
Gamma Emerald 1 (Cabd)

Not Voting 2 (Nero Cain, mozamis)

With 17 alive, it takes 9 to lynch.

Votecount 1.4

Elbirn 4 (Lil Uzi Vert, Aj The Epic, ssbm_Kyouko, Transcend)
CloudKicker 3 (xSoniaNevermindx, Tywin Lannister, Gamma Emerald)
Lapsa 2 (Pine, Titus)
Gamma Emerald 2 (Cabd, Alisae)
Alisae 1 (Nosferatu)
Lil Uzi Vert 1 (Elbirn)
Titus 1 (Nero Cain)

Not Voting 3 (mozamis, CloudKicker, Lapsa)

With 17 alive, it takes 9 to lynch.

Votecount 1.5

Elbirn 4 (Lil Uzi Vert, Aj The Epic, ssbm_Kyouko, Transcend)
CloudKicker 2 (xSoniaNevermindx, Gamma Emerald)
Gamma Emerald 2 (Cabd, CloudKicker)
Alisae 2 (Nosferatu, mozamis)
Lil Uzi Vert 2 (Elbirn, Lapsa)
Titus 2 (Nero Cain, Tywin Lannister)
Tywin Lannister 2 (Alisae, Titus)
Lapsa 1 (Pine)

With 17 alive, it takes 9 to lynch.

The mafia in this game do have daytalk without an encryptor. I will add this to the rules; apologies.

Votecount 1.6

Aj The Epic 3 (Transcend, ssbm_Kyouko, Titus)
Alisae 2 (Nosferatu, xSoniaNevermindx)
Lil Uzi Vert 2 (Elbirn, Lapsa)
Titus 2 (Nero Cain, Tywin Lannister)
Elbirn 1 (Lil Uzi Vert)
CloudKicker 1 (Gamma Emerald)
Gamma Emerald 1 (Cabd)
Lapsa 1 (Pine)
Tywin Lannister 1 (Aj The Epic)

Not Voting 3 (mozamis, Alisae, CloudKicker)

With 17 alive, it takes 9 to lynch.

Votecount 1.7

Gamma Emerald 3 (Cabd, Elbirn, Alisae)
Alisae 3 (Nosferatu, xSoniaNevermindx, ssbm_Kyouko)
Titus 3 (Nero Cain, Tywin Lannister, Lapsa)
Aj The Epic 2 (Transcend, Titus)
Tywin Lannister 2 (Aj The Epic, mozamis)
Elbirn 1 (Lil Uzi Vert)
CloudKicker 1 (Gamma Emerald)
Lapsa 1 (Pine)
Pine 1 (CloudKicker)

With 17 alive, it takes 9 to lynch.

Votecount 1.8

Gamma Emerald 4 (Cabd, Elbirn, Alisae, Titus)
Titus 3 (Nero Cain, Tywin Lannister, Lapsa)
Tywin Lannister 2 (Aj The Epic, mozamis)
Alisae 2 (Nosferatu, ssbm_Kyouko)
Aj The Epic 1 (Transcend)
CloudKicker 1 (Gamma Emerald)
Lapsa 1 (Pine)
Pine 1 (CloudKicker)

Not Voting 2 (xSoniaNevermindx, Lil Uzi Vert)

With 17 alive, it takes 9 to lynch.

The mod will be V/LA tomorrow.

Votecount 1.9

Titus 3 (Nero Cain, mozamis, Tywin Lannister)
Alisae 3 (Aj The Epic, Elbirn, ssbm_kyouko)
Lapsa 3 (Pine, CloudKicker, Alisae)
Tywin Lannister 2 (Titus, Lapsa)
Aj The Epic 1 (Transcend)
CloudKicker 1 (Nosferatu)
xSoniaNevermindx 1 (Gamma Emerald)

Not Voting 3 (Lil Uzi Vert, Cabd, xSoniaNevermindx)

With 17 alive, it takes 9 to lynch.

Deadline for Day 1 is December 30 at 11 AM Eastern.

Transcend is being replaced.

Votecount 1.10

Lapsa 7 (Pine, CloudKicker, Alisae, Titus, Gamma Emerald, Lil Uzi Vert, ssbm_Kyouko)
Titus 4 (Nero Cain, mozamis, Tywin Lannister, Syryana)
Alisae 1 (Aj The Epic)
Tywin Lannister 1 (Lapsa)
CloudKicker 1 (Nosferatu)

Not Voting 3 (Cabd, xSoniaNevermindx, Elbirn)

With 17 alive, it takes 9 to lynch.

Deadline for Day 1 is December 30 at 11 AM Eastern.

While the mod at least exists now, he will nonetheless be kinda-on-vacation for the next week.

Votecount 1.F

Lapsa 9 (Pine, CloudKicker, Titus, Gamma Emerald, Lil Uzi Vert, ssbm_Kyouko, Cabd, Syryana, Alisae)

Nosferatu 3 (Elbirn, xSoniaNevermindx, Lapsa)
Titus 3 (Nero Cain, mozamis, Tywin Lannister)
Alisae 1 (Aj The Epic)
CloudKicker 1 (Nosferatu)

With 17 alive, it takes 9 to lynch.

It is now Night 1. 48 hours for actions.

Votecount 2.1

ssbm_Kyouko 3 (Alisae, Aj The Epic, Tywin Lannister)
Tywin Lannister 1 (xSoniaNevermindx)

Not Voting 10 (others)

With 14 alive, it takes 8 to lynch.

Votecount 2.2

ssbm_Kyouko 3 (Alisae, Aj The Epic, Tywin Lannister)
Tywin Lannister 3 (xSoniaNevermindx, Pine, Alisae)

Not Voting 8 (others)

With 14 alive, it takes 8 to lynch.

Votecount 2.3

Tywin Lannister 3 (xSoniaNevermindx, Pine, Alisae)
ssbm_Kyouko 2 (Aj The Epic, Tywin Lannister)
mozamis 1 (Titus)
Nero Cain 1 (mozamis)
Nosferatu 1 (Elbirn)

Not Voting 6 (others)

With 14 alive, it takes 8 to lynch.

Votecount 2.4

ssbm_Kyouko 3 (Aj The Epic, Tywin Lannister, Nero Cain)
mozamis 3 (Titus, ssbm_Kyouko, Pine)
Tywin Lannister 1 (Alisae)
Nosferatu 1 (Elbirn)
Alisae 1 (Nosferatu)
Aj The Epic 1 (mozamis)
xSoniaNevermindx 1 (Gamma Emerald)
Nero Cain 1 (xSoniaNevermindx)

Not Voting 2 (Syryana, Cabd)

With 14 alive, it takes 8 to lynch.

Deadline for Day 2 is Friday, January 6, 2 PM Eastern.

I have become aware that Syryana is having some access issues and will not be prodding or replacing him at this time.
Apologies for the lack of presence, my vacation ends tomorrow and at least daily VCs can be expected thereafter.

Votecount 2.5

mozamis 6 (Titus, ssbm_Kyouko, Pine, Gamma Emerald, Alisae, Aj The Epic)
ssbm_Kyouko 2 (Tywin Lannister, Nero Cain)
Aj The Epic 2 (mozamis, Elbirn)
Alisae 1 (Nosferatu)
Nero Cain 1 (xSoniaNevermindx)

Not Voting 2 (Syryana, Cabd)

With 14 alive, it takes 8 to lynch.

Deadline for Day 2 is Friday, January 6, 2 PM Eastern.

I have become aware that Syryana is having some access issues and will not be prodding or replacing him at this time.

Votecount 2.F

mozamis 8 (Titus, ssbm_Kyouko, Pine, Gamma Emerald, Alisae, Aj The Epic, Nero Cain, Elbirn)

Aj The Epic 3 (Elbirn, Cabd, Tywin Lannister)
Tywin Lannister 1 (xSoniaNevermindx)
Alisae 1 (Nosferatu)

Not Voting 1 (Syryana)

With 14 alive, it takes 8 to lynch.

Syryana will have to respond to a PM from me by night's end or I'll be forced to replace him.

Votecount 3.1

Tywin Lannister 5 (Pine, ssbm_Kyouko, Titus, Gamma Emerald, Elbirn)
Nero Cain 1 (Alisae)

Not Voting 5 (the rest o yall)

Votecount 3.2

Tywin Lannister 4 (Pine, Titus, Gamma Emerald, Tywin Lannister)
ssbm_Kyouko 1 (Alisae)

Not Voting 6 (los otros)

Votecount 3.3

Tywin Lannister 2 (Titus, Gamma Emerald)
ssbm_Kyouko 2 (Tywin Lannister, xSoniaNevermindx)
Pine 1 (Alisae)

Not Voting 6 (los otros)

Votecount 3.3b

Tywin Lannister 2 (Titus, Gamma Emerald)
ssbm_Kyouko 2 (Tywin Lannister, xSoniaNevermindx)
Pine 1 (Alisae)

Not Voting 6 (others)

Votecount 3.4

Tywin Lannister 2 (Titus, Gamma Emerald)
ssbm_Kyouko 2 (xSoniaNevermindx, Alisae)
Pine 1 (Tywin Lannister)
Titus 1 (Elbirn)

Not Voting 5 (others)

Votecount 3.6

Gamma Emerald 5 (Elbirn, Aj The Epic, Alisae, Tywin Lannister, Nero Cain)
Tywin Lannister 2 (Titus, Gamma Emerald)
ssbm_Kyouko 1 (xSoniaNevermindx)
Aj The Epic 1 (ssbm_Kyouko)
Nero Cain 1 (Pine)

Not Voting 1 (gerryoat)

Sonia is V/LA.

Votecount 3.7

Gamma Emerald 4 (Aj The Epic, Alisae, Tywin Lannister, Nero Cain)
Tywin Lannister 2 (Gamma Emerald, Pine)
Nero Cain 2 (Titus, ssbm_Kyouko)
ssbm_Kyouko 1 (xSoniaNevermindx)

Not Voting 2 (gerryoat, Elbirn)

Sonia is V/LA.

Votecount 3.8

Gamma Emerald 5 (Aj The Epic, Tywin Lannister, Nero Cain, Alisae, xSoniaNevermindx)
Tywin Lannister 2 (Gamma Emerald, Pine)
Nero Cain 1 (Titus)

Not Voting 3 (gerryoat, Elbirn, ssbm_Kyouko)

Sonia is V/LA.

Votecount 3.F

Gamma Emerald 6 (Aj The Epic, Tywin Lannister, Nero Cain, Alisae, xSoniaNevermindx, ssbm_Kyouko)
Tywin Lannister 2 (Gamma Emerald, Pine)
Nero Cain 1 (Titus)

Not Voting 2 (gerryoat, Elbirn)

[Titus]

Yup. Skimming tells me Tywin, AJ, Nero.

Tywin might be a towbeard but given the three counterwagons to Tywin who are all town, he needs to eat rope before lylo.

I am still much more confident in Elbrin. I would have near perfect confudence in him being scum but for Nero's unbolded vote counting.

[Titus]

*Tywin Elbrin Nero

Not AJ. Boo ringing phones.

[Elbirn]

I am doing the full thing now

Thank you.

Frankly we've been butting heads this whole game and I've been kind of a dick but all I've wanted is for you to play. When this game ends, if youre town, and you put effort into things, I won't even care. If you're gonna mislynch me, you will case me first.


I'm gonna make a big-ish post soon of what I feel are relevant CK posts, stay tuned.

[Titus]

I am putting effort in. I just don't wallfight w scumreads, particularly without a claim.

The D1 cw and you hammerring a mason without a claim are red flags alone.

[Elbirn]

"I don't wallfight with scumreads"
What the hell was that tywin fight you had day 1 then? Jesus. Like this is why I've been having such a bad time with you this game, I want to just play the game assuming that you're town but then you rustle my Jimmie with bad things. This right here is like "lol elbirn I'm just not gonna engage u because fairy dust, lul :^)"

I give, I'm writing you off as town and accepting whatever happens, but I'm just gonna ignore you for the most part cuz nothing productive is gonna happen

[Nero Cain]

TBF its not like we knew that my unbolded vote would count. In fact this is the first time I've ever had an unbolded vote count.

[Pine]

Even-though Titus complains about meta she's actively aware and spouts her "I don't bus as scum" meta. In that same street fighters game that I posted earlier, she defended one of her buddies hard....but also bussed on of her buddies hard.

My stance is that scum are plenty capable of defending their buddy but town also whiteknight/defend and I'm not skilled enough to tell the difference.

player from 2009 and ure not confident in your reads

Even-though Titus complains about meta she's actively aware and spouts her "I don't bus as scum" meta. In that same street fighters game that I posted earlier, she defended one of her buddies hard....but also bussed on of her buddies hard.

My stance is that scum are plenty capable of defending their buddy but town also whiteknight/defend and

I'm not skilled enough to tell the difference.

player from 2009 and ure not confident in your reads

sounds bogus

This is the primary interaction I'm basing my interpretation on. This doesn't look like a "Hey I'm on your side" interaction. It's antagonistic. Remember, per Mod and the Normal guidelines, CK knew scum, but scum didn't know him. CK would have been trying to signal his identity to his compatriots, not harass them.

[Titus]

"I don't wallfight with scumreads"
What the hell was that tywin fight you had day 1 then? Jesus. Like this is why I've been having such a bad time with you this game, I want to just play the game assuming that you're town but then you rustle my Jimmie with bad things. This right here is like "lol elbirn I'm just not gonna engage u because fairy dust, lul :^)"

I give, I'm writing you off as town and accepting whatever happens, but I'm just gonna ignore you for the most part cuz nothing productive is gonna happen

I didn't wall fight with Tywin. I proved he's a liar.

Are you going to do something other than whine about me being town?

[Titus]

Even-though Titus complains about meta she's actively aware and spouts her "I don't bus as scum" meta. In that same street fighters game that I posted earlier, she defended one of her buddies hard....but also bussed on of her buddies hard.

My stance is that scum are plenty capable of defending their buddy but town also whiteknight/defend and I'm not skilled enough to tell the difference.

player from 2009 and ure not confident in your reads

Even-though Titus complains about meta she's actively aware and spouts her "I don't bus as scum" meta. In that same street fighters game that I posted earlier, she defended one of her buddies hard....but also bussed on of her buddies hard.

My stance is that scum are plenty capable of defending their buddy but town also whiteknight/defend and

I'm not skilled enough to tell the difference.

player from 2009 and ure not confident in your reads

sounds bogus

This is the primary interaction I'm basing my interpretation on. This doesn't look like a "Hey I'm on your side" interaction. It's antagonistic. Remember, per Mod and the Normal guidelines, CK knew scum, but scum didn't know him. CK would have been trying to signal his identity to his compatriots, not harass them.

Looks more like coaching to me.

[Titus]

TBF its not like we knew that my unbolded vote would count. In fact this is the first time I've ever had an unbolded vote count.

That's why I am not pummeling Elbrin.

[Tywin Lannister]

If nobody is going to drop my name even in a hypothetical, then just lynch me. Unless there are 3 scum left, it won't end the game. Pine has me in every scum pool he's ever done. Elibrin just posted his reads are based on my pre-flip associations. Titus wants me lynched because counter wagons weren't scum (really Titus? Should scum have voted themselves? You were pushing all those wagons except for gamma's).

So honestly? I think my lynch is necessary for town to get their shit together, because without me flipping green (which you'll look back on and say 'fuck me I'm an idiot for never looking for scum outside of obvious town'), none of the real townies in this game will ever look for actual scum. I truly believe I need to be mislynched for town to have even a 1% chance to win. I honestly don't believe town stands a chance, but I think it stands a better one without me there to gain auto-votes. Just please learn from your inherent conf biases and terrible pre-flip associations after i flip town. Do me that favor at least... Get better by learning from where you went wrong. That's all I've been asking, since this railroad of me since D1, yet no mercy hammer, has made this entire game super annoying to play in.

Also, AJ is scum. Maybe Nero is his buddy. That's who I'm gonna go with. Pine isn't ever getting lynched, so I hope he's town... One that I think will play better after I'm gone from the equation, since his reads need to stop being based on me. Elibrin is in the same boat. Since I'm town, everything you've said with your pre-flips is useless, so remember to learn from this game if you're town Elibrin.

Overall, I have to admit that scum just played a very good game. Town wasn't cohesive or able to get away from their constant conf biases, but that's not scum's problem. So good game scum. You guys played very well.

So let me know when you wanna lynch me and I'll join in. I should've been lynched yesterday, but gamma/Kyouko would've been shot by Alisae regardless after that, so it isn't like much changed. Oh, and AJ tryin to role fish saying Alisae wouldn't have shot Kyouko.... Lol. She would have, since she wanted him lynched yesterday, but she also may have shot me and the mod screwed it up. There was a mod error somewhere, but we'll see where post-game. Other than that, Alisae certainly would have shot Kyouko. Makes no sense to claim otherwise, and asking for a bus driver role to claim is scummy af.

So again, tomorrow... AJ then Nero. AJ is scum IMO. Nero/Pine are the other possibilities.

[Aj The Epic]

The role I think it would be, which is Bus Driver, would be scum sided.

[Tywin Lannister]

Unless the mod error was that scum have a roleblocker that didn't stop the kill somehow. The implication would be on either me (I've heard claims that I'm a BP scum from some of you, which is ridiculous), or that Pine had Alisae blocked worrying that she'd target him (since Pine, me, Kyouko were her three targets). Other than that, Idk what the error could be. My guess is that the kill shouldn't have happened somehow. May doctor protecting Alisae? Idk. Since the decision was to leave things as is, I'm guessing it had to be something that didn't work for scum or she targeted me, since losing two townies and calling it 'fair' only really is fair if the true target was me over Kyouko, since I'm also a townie. Otherwise, scum roleblocked Alisae and her kill shouldn't have gone through, but since the outcome was still favorable to scum, it was called fair.

[Tywin Lannister]

The role I think it would be, which is Bus Driver, would be scum sided.

I've seen more town bus drivers than scum. So idk how you figure that, but even so... What the fuck? That's a scum tell in itself. The MOD said it was an error, so you coming in the thread complaining sounds like you're scum and the wrong kill went through.

[xSoniaNevermindx]

VOTE: Nero
In Tywin is scum call me whipped

[Aj The Epic]

The role I think it would be, which is Bus Driver, would be scum sided.

I've seen more town bus drivers than scum. So idk how you figure that, but even so... What the fuck? That's a scum tell in itself. The MOD said it was an error, so you coming in the thread complaining sounds like you're scum and the wrong kill went through.

You're making shit out of nothing. Especially since I'm talking about ALISAE'S KILL, not the scum kill. Of which Alisae hit town. My guess going into the night was Alisae was going to gun for Nero or you. I thought he'd have a retribution kill for the wagon.

Edit: Alright, he did adjust to Kyouko at the end:

Um Gamma town means scum in Kyouko, Nero, Elbrin, Tywin. Congrats you put yourself in the pool.
You and Tywin actually makes sense.
And Sonia is probably town.

I was thinking it was only the latter three.