Micro 677: Double Day Unlimited in Wifom City - Town Win

[nydushermain]

Hi.

[nydushermain]

Ermmm! /confirm

[Titus]

Votecount 1.0

- Hiraki (0): Nobody
- Towns Last Hope(hydra of The_Jester and Dunnstral) (0): Nobody
- Lycanfire (0): Nobody
- GuiltyLion (0): Nobody
- TierShift (0): Nobody
- Alisae (0): Nobody
- Not_Mafia (0): Nobody
- Martha Zolanski (0): Nobody
- nydushermain (0): Nobody

Not Voting (9): Hiraki, Towns Last Hope, Lycanfire, GuiltyLion, TierShift, Alisae, Not_Mafia, Martha Zolanski, nydushermain

Information

Day 1 will end at February 15, 12:37 PM PST. That is (expired on 2017-02-15 12:37:00) from now.
Double your pleasure. Double your fun. Icy Icy flavor. Lynches will be done.

[nydushermain]

Gonna assume this means that the day has begun! Hello fellow townspeople and fellow townees and townsmen and townswomen! Allow me to begin the RTS to say that

Not_Mafia

is NEVER mafia.

[Towns Last Hope]

Since GL flipped town

VOTE: Alisae

Never votes Tier despite scumreading him and is satisfied with limiting himself to defense; no real scumhunting initiative detected

VOTE: nydush

buddying + meta sucks

[Towns Last Hope]

^that was Jester, and this is Dunn

[Alisae]

VOTE: TierShift
He's shifty.

[Martha Zolanski]

Hi people!!! My name's Martha.

VOTE: Alisae

Hi Alisae!

[Martha Zolanski]

So in this setup, we get 2 lynches each day.

[Alisae]

Yeppers.
And I don't know you but hi!

[nydushermain]

VOTE: Towns Last Hope

2 scum, 1 vote

VOTE: Alisae

That pun = policy lynch

[nydushermain]

And infinite votes!

[nydushermain]

So far, according to the wiki, the setup is 2-4 in terms of town wins to scum wins. That's pretty low... Maybe it's just because it's a low sample size but I think if it's representative, it probably shows town reliance on active PRs.

[nydushermain]

Let's do the math a little bit:

9 People total = 7 town + 2 scum

Let's say we lynch 2 people today and it's a ML
-> 5 town + 2 scum
Night kill
-> 4 town + 2 scum
Lynch 2 People that day and it's a ML = Lose
Lynch 1 Person that day and it's a ML = Lose
Lynch 2 People that day, one hits one is a ML
-> 3 town + 1 scum
Night Kill
-> 2 town + 1 scum
Final 3

If we lynch 1 person today and it's a ML
-> 6 town + 2 scum
Night Kill
-> 5 town + 2 scum*
If we lynch 2 people and it's a ML = lose
If we lynch 1 person and it's a ML
-> 4 town + 2 scum
Night kill
-> 3 town + 2 scum
Final 5

If we go back to *
If we lynch 2 people and one is a ML and one is a hit
-> 4 town + 1 scum
Night kill
-> 3 town + 1 scum
= 2 lynches to hit the last in a final 4

Basically, this seems kind of aimless but what I'm trying to say is that no matter what, it seems like as long as we don't lose right off the bat on day 2, we have 5 lynches at most to find scum, and 3 lynches to hit the first one at least. We pretty much have to decide which route we take and which risks we want to take to try to hit the scum.

I'd argue that finding scum one day 1 is a bit harder, and I'd probably opt to say that we should only lynch one person on day one UNLESS we hit scum #1 and save the rest of the lynches for day 2 and day 3. Even statistically, I think it's beneficial because let's say we're in a final 4 position, we have 2 lynches to find the remaining scum and it's a 50% chance because you're hitting 2 (that math might actually be wrong) in 4. Haven't looked TOO into this yet but the kind of math is there for you and I might have missed scenarios. The only ones that I haven't mentioned are the ones where we win straight up by lynching both scum, and the ones where scum is lynched on day 1. If it gets to that point, we can scrap whatever is in this post and see what our optimal lynch path is.

[nydushermain]

1. As an addition to post 38, let's say that we took this path:

1. a) Lynch 2 day 1
1. b) Lynch 2 day 2 and one of them hit
1. c) Final 3

1. a) The probability of hitting scum on day 1 is 2/9 and then 2/8
1. b) The probability of hitting scum on day 2 is 2/6 and then 2/5
1. c) Final 3 is a standard 1/3


2. If we take the second path:

2. a) Lynch 1 day 1
2. b) Lynch 2 day 2
2. c) Final 5

2. a) The probability of hitting scum on day 1 is 2/9
2. b) The probability of hitting scum on day 2 is 2/7 and then 2/6
2. c) Final 5 is 2/5 and then 1/3


3. If we take the third path:

3. a) Lynch 1 day 1
3. b) Lynch 2 day 2 and one of them is a hit
3. c) Final 4

3. a) The probability of hitting scum on day 1 is 2/9
3. b) The probability of hitting scum on day 2 is 2/7 and then 2/6
3. c) The probability of hitting scum is 1/2

[Alisae]

Nyd
wtf is that stuff?

[nydushermain]

Sorry I did 2. wrong.

It should be:

2. a) Lynch 1 day 1
2. b) Lynch 1 day 2
2. c) Final 5

2. a) The probability of hitting scum on day 1 is 2/9
2. b) The probability of hitting scum on day 2 is 2/7
2. c) Final 5 is 2/5 and then 1/3

[nydushermain]

Sorry! You guys don't have to read what I'm posting! I just know I'll forget if I don't write it down somewhere.

[Alisae]

UNVOTE: TierShift
VOTE: Nyd

[Alisae]

It looks like your posting that stuff to just look busy

[nydushermain]

My analysis is this:

We should never do 2 because that just sounds dumb... as in, we should always lynch twice in either day 1 or day 2 (or both).

Lynching twice in day 1 AND day 2 gives us the best chance of finding scum # 1 but the worst chance of finding scum # 2

Lynch once in day 1 and twice in day 2 gives us the lowest chance of finding scum # 1 but the best chance of finding scum # 2

[nydushermain]

It looks like your posting that stuff to just look busy

That's not a bad read (although it's wrong) because I'm doing it out of boredom. I literally posted the above because I'm procrastinating actual work. New setups are exciting, especially when the variables aren't that complicated.

[nydushermain]

Also, the wiki says that we have a shitty win rate on this set up so I wanted to break it down and see if we could break the game and gain a slight advantage.

[TierShift]

VOTE: TierShift
He's shifty.

Read my wiki

[GuiltyLion]

It looks like your posting that stuff to just look busy

This accusation is vaguely scummy imo

It's page 2, there's no need for anyone to look busy yet. I doubt a scum!nydushermain would feel compelled to be active at this point, it's not like anyone is gonna scumread someone for not posting when the game just started.

If anything, think it's slightly less likely scum!nydushermain opens the game posting multiple walls of mostly meaningless math. At best, it's something he would do as either alignment, because scum!nydushmerain feels like town!nydushermain would do it.

Also, can someone convince me of a pro-town reason to use multiple votes? More votes on more wagons makes it easier for scum to push mislynches.