Micro 677: Double Day Unlimited in Wifom City - Town Win
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nydushermain
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nydushermain
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Titus She/herMoon WalkerShe/her
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Last edited by Titus on Wed Feb 01, 2017 9:40 am, edited 1 time in total.ShowThe scum had the misfortune of Titus being absurdly accurate on day one.Really quite impressed by that.~Drixx
You're letting Titus win the game by herself.Good luck now I guess.You have no chance to win.~Tywin
GTKTitus Part 2
Titus Academy
VLA Friday nights until Sunday morning.
All hail the Scum Empress!-
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nydushermain Goon
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Towns Last Hope Townie
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Towns Last Hope Townie
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Alisae lolbalance
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Martha Zolanski Goon
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Martha Zolanski Goon
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Alisae lolbalance
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nydushermain Goon
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nydushermain
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nydushermain Goon
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nydushermain Goon
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Let's do the math a little bit:
9 People total = 7 town + 2 scum
Let's say we lynch 2 people today and it's a ML
-> 5 town + 2 scum
Night kill
-> 4 town + 2 scum
Lynch 2 People that day and it's a ML = Lose
Lynch 1 Person that day and it's a ML = Lose
Lynch 2 People that day, one hits one is a ML
-> 3 town + 1 scum
Night Kill
-> 2 town + 1 scum
Final 3
If we lynch 1 person today and it's a ML
-> 6 town + 2 scum
Night Kill
-> 5 town + 2 scum*
If we lynch 2 people and it's a ML = lose
If we lynch 1 person and it's a ML
-> 4 town + 2 scum
Night kill
-> 3 town + 2 scum
Final 5
If we go back to *
If we lynch 2 people and one is a ML and one is a hit
-> 4 town + 1 scum
Night kill
-> 3 town + 1 scum
= 2 lynches to hit the last in a final 4
Basically, this seems kind of aimless but what I'm trying to say is that no matter what, it seems like as long as we don't lose right off the bat on day 2, we have 5 lynches at most to find scum, and 3 lynches to hit the first one at least. We pretty much have to decide which route we take and which risks we want to take to try to hit the scum.
I'd argue that finding scum one day 1 is a bit harder, and I'd probably opt to say that we should only lynch one person on day one UNLESS we hit scum #1 and save the rest of the lynches for day 2 and day 3. Even statistically, I think it's beneficial because let's say we're in a final 4 position, we have 2 lynches to find the remaining scum and it's a 50% chance because you're hitting 2 (that math might actually be wrong) in 4. Haven't looked TOO into this yet but the kind of math is there for you and I might have missed scenarios. The only ones that I haven't mentioned are the ones where we win straight up by lynching both scum, and the ones where scum is lynched on day 1. If it gets to that point, we can scrap whatever is in this post and see what our optimal lynch path is.-
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nydushermain Goon
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1. As an addition to post 38, let's say that we took this path:
1. a) Lynch 2 day 1
1. b) Lynch 2 day 2 and one of them hit
1. c) Final 3
1. a) The probability of hitting scum on day 1 is 2/9 and then 2/8
1. b) The probability of hitting scum on day 2 is 2/6 and then 2/5
1. c) Final 3 is a standard 1/3
2. If we take the second path:
2. a) Lynch 1 day 1
2. b) Lynch 2 day 2
2. c) Final 5
2. a) The probability of hitting scum on day 1 is 2/9
2. b) The probability of hitting scum on day 2 is 2/7 and then 2/6
2. c) Final 5 is 2/5 and then 1/3
3. If we take the third path:
3. a) Lynch 1 day 1
3. b) Lynch 2 day 2 and one of them is a hit
3. c) Final 4
3. a) The probability of hitting scum on day 1 is 2/9
3. b) The probability of hitting scum on day 2 is 2/7 and then 2/6
3. c) The probability of hitting scum is 1/2-
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Alisae lolbalance
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nydushermain Goon
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nydushermain Goon
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Alisae lolbalance
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Alisae lolbalance
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nydushermain Goon
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My analysis is this:
We should never do 2 because that just sounds dumb... as in, we should always lynch twice in either day 1 or day 2 (or both).
Lynching twice in day 1 AND day 2 gives us the best chance of finding scum # 1 but the worst chance of finding scum # 2
Lynch once in day 1 and twice in day 2 gives us the lowest chance of finding scum # 1 but the best chance of finding scum # 2-
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nydushermain Goon
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That's not a bad read (although it's wrong) because I'm doing it out of boredom. I literally posted the above because I'm procrastinating actual work. New setups are exciting, especially when the variables aren't that complicated.In post 44, Alisae wrote:It looks like your posting that stuff to just look busy-
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nydushermain Goon
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TierShift Jack of All Trades
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GuiltyLion he/himSurvivorhe/him
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This accusation is vaguely scummy imoIn post 44, Alisae wrote:It looks like your posting that stuff to just look busy
It's page 2, there's no need for anyone to look busy yet. I doubt a scum!nydushermain would feel compelled to be active at this point, it's not like anyone is gonna scumread someone for not posting when the game just started.
If anything, think it's slightly less likely scum!nydushermain opens the game posting multiple walls of mostly meaningless math. At best, it's something he would do as either alignment, because scum!nydushmerain feels like town!nydushermain would do it.
Also, can someone convince me of a pro-town reason to use multiple votes? More votes on more wagons makes it easier for scum to push mislynches."I think I no longer believe in monsters as faces in the floor or feral infants or vampires or whatever. I think at seventeen now I believe the only real monsters might be the type of liar where there's simply no way to tell. The ones who give nothing away"
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