Newbie 1768: Party Mafia - Game over!

[GuiltyLion]

ugh

I need to reread, and I'll have time to do that tomorrow

[GuiltyLion]

Current opinion is that Revan might actually be town

In the meantime, I'd like you to walk me through this

[Sobolev Space]

@GL - eh thinking some more it's not that strong. It's just that there's no way that scum PT hasn't been talking about the setup to some degree so ignorance about the JK doesn't look like it comes from scum. It's all just wifom though.

Given Titus's flip what are your current opinions on who's scum?

@all - we should refrain from putting 2 votes on anyone, at least for the start of the day. If we're wrong scum can coordinate a quick hammer and win.

[tojam2]

Who do you think IS scum then Sobolev, because if it isn't EL or Revan then the partnership must surely be GL/Sparkles.

[tojam2]

UNVOTE:

[tojam2]

Tempted to vote SS based on that and the No Lynch call, but I can't make an assumption that big.

[Revan]

Scum is in {GL, EL, AS}

[Sobolev Space]

@Tojam - hard to say. I can easily see any four of them being scum. EL is towniest, probably followed by Sparkles.

I want to see more content from Sparkles today.

[tojam2]

VOTE: EL seen as the 3 of us agree on it.

[Sobolev Space]

VOTE: Sparkles

@GL - any update on your reread?

[Agent Sparkles]

@Sparkles - what do you think about Revan/GL?

I feel like they may have been soft bussing each other all game without committing. That was part of the reason I switched my vote to Revan last page. Wanted to see if I could get EL/GL to switch over as well.

Do I think they've been soft bussing each other? Revan, no, GL, maybe. GL started out with some commitment and later didn't say much about Revan while he was at war with Titus. But Revan spent a good portion of day 1 repeatedly insisting that we should lynch GL, and I think his vote would've flipped very quickly if more people had followed his advice. If there's any scumread he's been noncommittal on, it's me.

So a GL/Revan partnership seems unlikely to me. Revan could have taken the easy way out by following the Lemon wagon or continuing to push on Jae, but he flipped to a scum!GL opinion at what seemed like an odd and inconvenient time to bus.

Revan, some context would be helpful.

[Agent Sparkles]

I think it's better if we lynch today. No-lynching will just get tojam killed and we'll lose a town opinion. After how we went around in circles yesterday, I doubt an extra day would make us much more likely to hit scum.

[tojam2]

@GL no backseat gaming please, we need some thoughts.

[tojam2]

Btw, my reads:

EL, Revan

GL, SS

AS

tojam2

[tojam2]

Actually, EL is slightly scummier than Revan.

[tojam2]

Of course, if we lynch scum today, i die and we go into 3v1 mylo, at which point you guys should no lynch.

[GuiltyLion]

okay, rereading D1 gave me the clarity that I needed. Revan is scum. I got so wrapped up in Titus' push on me that I lost sight of how fake his reads are.

GL why do you think it is more likely that I had a scumread on Titus than not having a read?

This is the key right here. I don't think Revan had a scumread on Titus, I think Revan is scum who was hoping to justify a Titus vote and then changed it to a "reaction test" when he got called out on dropping his push. Revan has continually tried to set this narrative that he never had a scumread on Titus, that he had no read.

But look at why he is making this argument:

Titus is obviously scum. Insincere questioning, and posts seem to be coming from someone that has the motivation to distract town.

VOTE: Titus

Here is where Revan enters the game with the "scumread" on Titus. It's a loaded, aggressive push, one that is certainly designed to get a reaction from Titus.

He makes a few more pokes at Titus:

I say we lynch Titus.

Titus is being pretty uncooperative, and hard to read.

Why don't you defend yourself?

Titus what makes Lemons's speech patterns funny? Are these patterns indicative of scum?

These types of posts are absolutely designed to get a reaction out of Titus. I think Revan wanted her to flail so that he could justify and continue his push on her. Unfortunately, he got stonewalled.

Here's the key point though: a townie who legitimately did not have a read on Titus would expect a follow up. A townie with a nullread on Titus would want this read to resolve. Revan never has a moment where it becomes clear why his read on Titus flips from "null" to "town", and it definitely does not come from any interaction with her.

So when Revan switches off of her, voting JaeReed in 210, and JaeReed calls out this disconnect:

Within the span of 22 posts you went from a decentish case on Titus to questioning bowdown on listening to Titus (your stated scumread), to voting me without getting my answer on why I was scumreading tojam, for reasons that aren't even related to my tojam vote. It looks like you just wanted a reason to vote me. Especially given the justification of "slip".

What I see here is:
To me: Explain your vote. (decent demand of "back it up")
To bowdown: Explain why you followed Titus. (implies you think he could be partnered with Titus or scum sheeping Titus since she told him to do it)
To Titus: Explain why EL's speech patterns are worth a vote.
*votes Jae*

There's a disconnect there.

Revan gives this explanation:

I never scumread Titus, I voted her to get a reaction because I was having a tough time discerning her alignment

. Unfortunately, it didn't work out for two reasons.

a) Jae defended her before she defended herself, which is odd. This is where I am getting the vibe that Jae is protecting Titus.

b) Titus never defended herself.

This is a lie. If town!Revan legitimately did not have a read on Titus, why does he drop it suddenly, and never pursue her again? I can't quote it all, but everyone should read his ISO after this post - the only real substantive comment he makes on Titus again is this one:

I guess Titus's no response is a bit of a towntell, then? I would think scum are more focused on self-preservation and would defend themselves.

and then he shelves her as a "townlean" and

doesn't meaningfully talk to or comment on her again, even when she was the primary focus of D2

. That's not how a town with an uncertain read would play it. That's scum keeping their hands clean and coasting. Ask yourself -

if you were town and weren't sure of Titus' alignment, would you play D2 the way Revan played D2?

Also, scum often have a hard time voting/commenting on mislynches that are about to go through. These end-of-D2 posts from Revan give me the sense that he knows Titus will flip town. And they're both setting up an EL lynch on D3:

I'm having a really tough time reading Titus. I would only hammer if it was near DL. Town flip, I wild lynch EL D3.

VOTE: EL

I think this has a higher chance of being scum than Titus

I'm not sure who the second scum is between Sparkles/Sobolev. I don't think it's an EL-Revan team because of how Revan and EL voted eachother late in D1, ensuring that they were two of the most likely lynch candidates. That's far more likely to be 1S and 1T rather than both on Scum.

VOTE: Revan

[GuiltyLion]

tojam, I really don't see the case for scum!EL. Why do you think she's scum?

[Sobolev Space]

@tojam - why the townread on AS?

@GL - I see what you're saying about Revan but given Titus's flip I'm having trouble seeing Revan being partnered with anyone left. I guess most likely would probably be AS. I also agree with you about the EL case - it seemed pretty weak to me.

[SirCakez]

Votecount 3.1

EccentricLemon (1) - tojam2
Agent Sparkles (1) - Sobolev Space
Revan (1) - GuiltyLion

Not voting (3) - EccentricLemon, Agent Sparkles, Revan

With 6 alive, it takes 4 votes to lynch someone.

(expired on 2017-02-17 17:22:00) remain until day end

[Agent Sparkles]

I don't think it's an EL-Revan team because of how Revan and EL voted eachother late in D1, ensuring that they were two of the most likely lynch candidates. That's far more likely to be 1S and 1T rather than both on Scum.

Don't forget that EL and Revan were already in the firing line when they voted each other. Also, Revan's vote on Lemon was too half-assed to be a real bus, because he claimed he was self-saving on to a townlean while actively pressuring people to flip over to you or Jae. Then he eagerly flashwagoned on to nancy once Jae revealed their case.

[Agent Sparkles]

Sobolev, why is your vote parked on me if GL and Revan are your top scumreads?

[Agent Sparkles]

^ More accurately, top candidates for a scumteam. Either way.

[Sobolev Space]

Oh thanks for the reminder I initially voted you because I wanted to see more content. Looks like that's changing so:
VOTE: GL

[Sobolev Space]

My analysis can be simple because a lot of the people in this game are easy to read, except Titus and GuiltyLion.

This post was why I thought scum!Revan's partner would be either Titus or GL. Still think that's likely. Post 866 could easily be a bus.

Sparkles, why aren't you voting? Who would you like to see lynched today?