Large Normal 199: L'Hôtel Pleuvoir (Fin)

[Pine]

Nonsense. No lynching in MYLO is a myth.

[Pine]

That said, it strikes me that there's no advantage to be gained from Elbirn no-killing then no-lynching.

This immediately makes me suspicious of AJ. He's kind of skated by for days when we've been distracted elsewhere.

[Pine]

Yeah, that's not how it works. "Narrow to two suspects" is bullshit and a myth. You're thinking of it from the wrong meta perspective. You've got to get your mind into a scum mindset; they aren't eliminating an opponent, they're choosing which two opponents to take to endgame.

Refusing to participate in MYLO means scum get to shape endgame to their own desire.

[Pine]

Nonsense. It's scum keeping their options open, but percentage-based assessments are a fallacy. Titus doesn't have a 25% chance of getting lynched, it's pretty much 0%. We're not random-lynching here.

[Pine]

Can someone better at math than me tell me this, why does scum no kill twice? Wouldn't one no kill have gotten us to a 4 player mylo the previous day phase or something?

There isn't a good reason. It is objectively an error.

[Pine]

Stop using percentages. That isn't how it works.

[Pine]

Fuck that shit

VOTE: No Lynch

VOTE: No lynch - vote early night

Pine, if scum deliberately no killed, they want the game state like this.

Yes, but my point is that no lynching won't change anything. Either they no kill again and we're back here once more, or they kill you or I and we're in this position with less wisdom.

I don't think Elbirn no kills and then stands on principle about no lynch.

Cabd cleared you ages ago.

It isn't me.

AJ is the only reasonable option, and I see it. I won't be voting no lynch.

VOTE: AJ

[Pine]

Why the hell would I kill Titus? She's had a solid TR on me for most of the game, and was SRing you guys.

[Pine]

My best guess about the more recent no-kill is that one of you didn't want to eliminate one of us, because you were hoping we'd turn on one another, or at least disagree loudly. Hell, we haven't agreed on much this game except a mutual TR. AJ killing Elbirn or Elbirn killing AJ would result in the other immediately getting lynched.

This is why I shouldn't let my null pool go all game. Right from the very start, you two were the ones I couldn't grok.

[Pine]

Yeah, you're discarding the notion that the remaining Mafia member has some kind of PR in your balance assessments. I am also only 3-shot. Motion detector is an incredibly weak PR. Even if you discount me, Town is too strongly balanced against scum. I would wager that the final scum HAS to be a PR of some kind. Given that, the addition of a Roleblocker against two scum PRs is entirely sensible.

[Pine]

You don't get it - the Normal review group is super Townsided right now. Final scum PR could easily be something as weak as a 2-shot Tracker, or as powerful as a JOAT or Doc.

Remember also that Traitor, especially with this setup, is a negative utility role for scum. It's even more of a hazard for scum than a Miller is for Town. Scum HAVE to have an additional PR, which means the Normal review group would insist on a pretty stacked Town.

[Pine]

You are.

I feel like the first no kill was either an attempt to draw out claims or something. Either way it was an objective error, as no gain justifies lengthening the game when you're the only one left. This is why I've been thinking it was an inexperienced player like Sonia or Tywin. I'm not so sure now, though it may have something to do with their PR

[Pine]

You are @Elbirn thinking he's wrong.

[Pine]

Maybe some kind of even night commuter?

[Pine]

Elbirn i'm just blindly guessing about Commuter. I noticed the lack of even night deaths and that was what occurred to me. It's probably wrong

[Pine]

Yeah, AJ wasn't leaning me until I started to suspect him. In fact, he had me as Town until pretty recently.

[Pine]

I'm in lots of games, Elbirn, and this one doesn't add a dozen pages at a go.

[Pine]

I am leaning towards AJ right now, but I need to do some ISO-diving.

[Pine]

Okay, that was saltier than it needed to be. I can give you some attention. Was there something specific you wanted to discuss while we're both on, Elbirn?

[Pine]

No, I agree with your logic. I just need to do my own research. See, you'd say all of that whether you were Town or scum. I find in LYLO that it's easier to make the right decision by making a towncase rather than a scumcase.

If you're decided, go for it. It doesn't make a difference to me, from my perspective it's either you or him anyway.

[Pine]

Dude, I spent half the game frothing at the mouth over Tywin. I was on most of the Townie lynches and off the only scum lynch, whom I was TRing and actively defending. This is not a good game for me. Mutually TRing Titus was about the only good thing I did this game.

[Pine]

Yeah, I'm sold.

VOTE: AJ

[Pine]

Hi I'm town now

Yay I chose right!

[Pine]

I didn't want to go back into night because Titus was the only person I was sure is Town, and therefore the only opinion I could trust. Going to night risks losing that insight. Also, 3v1 MYLO requires a unanimous vote against someone, whereas 2v1 LYLO just requires one Townie to vote the other.

Will address the rest when I get home

[Pine]

Confirmed Town who TRs you is awesome in LYLO. Try again.

[Pine]

Yeah, but I don't kill Titus. She's been hard TRing me for ages. I bring that to LYLO.

[Pine]

The case is made, from where I sit. Titus and I were pretty clearly kept alive to late game for our reads. Neither of us really suspected AJ, and our reads in general were just horrible. Tywin is a good example. Still kind of stunned on his flip. N7, Titus was kind of waffling, unpredictable, and I was leaning towards Elbirn. It all fits.

[Pine]

Yeah, Tywin was actually voting for me for about a third of D1. But you can call that "mentioned like once"

[Pine]

Sorry, I meant Cloudkicker. Distracted by Super Bowl

[Pine]

Dude, if you replace Tywin with CK in my post, it makes perfect sense. I'm watching the Falcons wreck the Patriots with my fam right now.

[Pine]

Well other than CK wasn't lynched yesterday... And it STILL doesn't make sense because CK was traitor so how scum interacted with him isn't even worth mentioning.

Mod specifically stated that CK knew the scumteam. Analyzing his ISO and interactions is absolutely informative

[Pine]

Like please explain why I no kill the night before sonia was lynched.

Explain why I do it.

Without using the bullshit argument that it was to get Sonia lynched. No-killing that day added a day cycle to the game. Getting a "free" mislynch at the expense of adding one mislynch needed is a null gain, all for the price of exposing my claim and risking a backfire.

[Pine]

Yeah, Tywin was actually voting for me for about a third of D1. But you can call that "mentioned like once"

So this isn't a slip considering that tywin doesn't even breath pine's name day 1

Pushing on this as a slip was a shitty move from you aj, i knew it was shit even when I was drunk, I just wanted to let you two dig your own graves over it. 50 house points from Slytherin.

Basically the only reason aj is alive is this

1. Was the Lapsa wagon reaaallly entirely town except for traitor-cloud? No groupscum decided to push that?

2. Why does aj no kill the night before sonia's death-day? I can at least bullshit a notice from pine for that but why aj?

3. If pine is scum and I hammer aj I'm gonna have that smug asshole tywin yelling at me for the rest of time

1. These things happen. I've actually noted that there is a trend lately, with scum actively trying to defeat VCA by either avoiding wagons or piling onto them unanimously. A good example happened recently in Hunger Games II, where we saw Town moving to mislynch someone we weren't pushing, and decided to step back, push vanity wagons, and let them do the work. Later in the game, they used VCA to accuse people on the mislynch wagon, and it was hard for them to believe that it was fully Town. As for me being on Lapsa, Lapsa was (I think) my only vote D1, and I was the first vote on him, during RVS. I didn't have a chance to coordinate with anyone.
2. Again, the question is valid for anyone. There's no good reason for either of us to do it. It's either a tactical error, a weird gambit that I'm not groking, or a rolecop identifying my role and hoping I would do exactly what I did.
3. Tywin is going to yell at all of us regardless of what happens. He's the kind of smug douche who can't conceive of the notion that someone else might interpret things differently.

Yeah, CloudKicker was actually voting for me for about a third of D1. But you can call that "mentioned like once"

^ how does this not make sense? CK did in fact vote him for a third of day 1. Tywin didn't.

I straightforwardly misread the quote, and thought that AJ was implying that Cloudkicker was ignoring me on D1, when in fact he was voting me for a good chunk of it.

[Pine]

I blame the Super Bowl. Fantastic halftime show, riveting second half, first overtime of any Super Bowl, Brady's record-setting fifth win. I'm going to remember this one for a long time.

[Pine]

Original:

No, not really. Just pointing out I did the exact same thing yesterday to lynch Tywin over Pine (aka looked at the fact scum never interacted with Tywin but did mention pine like once) and it turned out incorrect.

Yeah, Tywin was actually voting for me for about a third of D1. But you can call that "mentioned like once"

What I read, then meant when responding:

No, not really. Just pointing out I did the exact same thing yesterday to lynch Tywin over Pine (aka looked at the fact scum never interacted with

Cloudkicker

but did mention pine like once) and it turned out incorrect.

Yeah,

Cloudkicker

was actually voting for me for about a third of D1. But you can call that "mentioned like once"

Have you never glanced at something while distracted and read something incorrectly?

Is this seriously what you're hinging this game on?

[Pine]

I'm not acting like I don't know what's up - you're scum, and I'm voting for you. I just think that pushing an obviously bullshit line of attack is ridiculous. Are you going for a 'too scummy to be scum' defense?

[Pine]

Man

I really hope you're not

VOTE: Aj The Epic

[Pine]

Like I said, the no kill was a tactical error, for which there was no excuse.

I straight up forgot to submit one.

[Pine]

Dat Roleblocker claim, though.

[Pine]

Welcome.

Still enjoying the summer breeze (alive)

Pine,

Mafia Goon

Not haunting the grounds, we swear (dead)

Lapsa,

Townie

, lynched Day 1.
Lil Uzi Vert,

Town Vanilla Cop

, killed Night 1.
CloudKicker,

Mafia Loved Traitor

, killed Night 1.
mozamis,

Town Mason

, lynched Day 2.
Cabd,

Town Gunsmith

, killed Night 2.
Nosferatu,

Mafia Motion Detector

, killed Night 2.
Gamma Emerald,

Townie

, lynched Day 3.
ssbm_Kyouko,

Townie

, killed Night 3.
Alisae,

Town Vigilante

, killed Night 3.
Nero Cain,

Mafia Goon

, lynched Day 4.
xSoniaNevermindx,

Townie

, lynched Day 5.
gerryoat,

Town Mason Bodyguard

, killed Night 5.
Tywin Lannister,

Townie

, lynched Day 6.
Titus,

Townie

, killed Night 7.
Aj The Epic,

Townie

, lynched Day 8.
Elbirn,

Townie

, endgamed Day 8.

I really do love being the last man standing. It's a rare treat.

[Pine]

Yeah... Great play by Pine

Bullshit. That no kill was inexcusable. The game should have been over with Tywin's lynch.

[Pine]

The second no kill was intentional, though. I didn't want to narrow down Town's choices. 3v1 MYLO requires unanimity, and I thought I'd be pretty invincible if it required all three of {Titus, AJ, Elbirn} to agree.

[Pine]

Yeah, this was not an easy endgame. All the way up to and including this -

Actually AJ I have a question for you.

Go ahead.

Are you town?

Yes.

- I was worried that you were going to flip to AJ's side. Then I saw Ceph lock the thread and was holding my breath as I opened it. This was a nail-biter for me too.

[Pine]

Nah, you were fine. There is merit to the bare-bones approach.

[Pine]

Mod thoughts? You're the only really impartial person here.

[Pine]

Sorry Alice.

OH! What was the modstake?

[Pine]

Yeah, I thought Tywin was pretty obvTown. The only thing against him, really, was the Cloudkicker analysis, which, to be frank, was pretty damning.

Alice had strong play. I was insane to find out whether he was SK or Vig. We should have tried to kill him immediately. My Alice-is-SK push was another of the several egregious errors I committed and somehow recovered from.

My issue was that his polluting the thread with bullshit posts and basically being the most unreasonable person I've ever met in mafia was WIFOM enough to avoid a lynch, but then he CONTINUED IT after being town read. Had he actually tried to stop inciting Titus into attacking him it would've been much easier to see.

This. He was his own worst enemy.

[Pine]

@Cephrir I don't think our (mostly my) analysis of who might be the traitor was ill-conceived. Most people as traitor are not going to go out of their way to antagonize the scumteam, and CK voted for and/or attacked all three of us. He was one of the only people I was absolutely positive was not the Traitor.

[Pine]

A few responses to dead thread discussion:

Btw anyone who read into my d1, i double wifomed hardcore and thats why i got killed by mefia

That explains things. You double-WIFOMed too well.

imo pine claims he blocked whoever it was that was asking him if he was definitely only 3-shot RB and claims he pretended to be 3-shot in order to confuse scum, and say he chose to block them because they were trying to fish for if he could still block before deciding not to lynch him

I was planning on something like that, but then realized I couldn't claim to have more shots and not block Tywin. Under than theory, Tywin would have been the only scum left, so I'd have to either block him or not have shots left.

so we assume that this all part of pines plan?

Oh fuck no, definitely improvised as I went

If Titus isn't being brought to Lylo, Pine loses.
If Titus is being brought to lylo, I hope she knows why Pine brought her to Lylo.

I couldn't bring Titus to LYLO because she

definitely

would have suspected why she was being kept alive. Under the theory that Titus and I were strong Town mutually TRing each other, scum!AJ or scum!Elbirn couldn't afford to let us both make it to LYLO with them. I wanted Titus alive, which is why I no-killed before MYLO, but Town forced my hand.

Pine dies. I woulda lynched Pine if alive. I was TRing Elbrin due to mod error analysus. He had to be town.

See?

no one seriously suspected Pine all game.
HOWEVER, by now you gotta hope someone is gonna ask WHY IS PINE STILL ALIVE? They just gotta to have the humility to realise he is the strongest player, and why is a strong player left?
And this is the internet, where everyone is full of humility, so town are golden, kids!
Oh. Oh dear.

Strong players are left alive until late game all the time, often due to the fact that their reads in that game are incorrect. You'll note that Titus made it to MYLO. With the theory that Titus and I were both Town, we'd been fucking up all game, mislynching and defending scum. There would have been no reason to kill us.

Titus I'm sad that you still lynched Tywin ;~;

I am not. That slot had to die before lylo with the lies and garbage he spewed.

There were never any lies. You are just an absolutely terrible town player. Your ego is far too big for your ability, and it showed. You got exposed for being bad.

Pine made a mistake by not keeping you around, because you'd have quicklynched Elibrin the same way. You're so bad at the game and playing it properly that you have no concept of what you did wrong either.

This is why no one likes you.

TBF, over the last few years I think alot of the new players have come from TOS or Epic Mafia....and its well known that town play is mostlty shit so Titus being considered good b/c she is loud isn't that surprising in the site state.

I don't think the Townplay on this site is necessarily bad, I think the standard for scumplay on this site is high. I've noticed that most games where scum gets wrecked, it's due to scum fumbles. Aeronaut's Drunk Christmas Party is a recent example; scum fucked up hard, and Town caught it.

[Pine]

good job Pine

Like I said, not really. There was a lot of tapdancing and a lot of playing things by ear, and it was still close.

[Pine]

Oh yeah! That pissed me off at the time

I have some issues with setup. Town had a fuckton of power, scum had a negative utility, and motion detector has the possibility of being just as misleading as helpful.

[Pine]

I mean, Traitor was instead of, not in addition to, the standard fourth team member for this number. And motion detector is -almost- like "why bother".

Don't get me wrong, I dig the idea of a Traitor done this way, but to call a spade a spade, it's a heavy handicap, and the fact that we killed ours N1 proves it.

PEdit: No no, you misunderstand. We won DESPITE the balance. This was heavily Townsided. I often defend mods and reviewers, but this is akin to that scene from Men of Honor, where the racist instructors slash a big hole in Cuba Gooding's toolbag before tossing it into the water. We were hamstrung from the start. Again, that's okay, but you ALSO chose to give Town a bunch of power. Either by themselves would be fine, both wasn't a fair shake.

[Pine]

This is likely not a thing we will come to an agreement to you, so I will bow out of this thread with a respectful nod of the head to my worthy opponents in the Town, who made this game a very, very close thing indeed, and quite memorable.

[/Pine]