Open 670: Near Vanilla (Over)

[Creature]

Votecount 4.2

Votecount 4.2

[0] hapahauli
[0] Hiraki
[0] Riley Cake
[0] Toto
[2] Sesq - Music Box, Hawk
[0] Music Box
[0] Elena Fisher
[3] Hawk - hapahauli, Hiraki, Riley Cake

[L-2]

[0] Nolynch

Not voting: Sesq, Toto, Elena Fisher

8 players are alive, therefore 5 votes is the majority.

Deadline: (expired on 2017-03-07 19:15:00)

[hapahauli]

Sesq, I see you suggesting that people are suspicious, but you aren't really providing any conclusions.

Who's mafia?

[Sesq]

Sesq, I see you suggesting that people are suspicious, but you aren't really providing any conclusions.

Who's mafia?

I don't like to put a definte finger down (RE: nebula) but right now I'm saying it's 2 out of Hawk, Riley and MB.

[Sesq]

As for why, mostly on associative tells. I'm most confident on Riley, there wasn't much interaction between them save for light shade and Riley being like MAGNA TOWN WOO on one readslist in a rather dismissive way. As for MB, again, not much interaction between them and Magna, also seems like they lurked through most of the game, or at least were in the background of things actually going on. Hawk... now there was more stuff going on between them, so I'm more skeptical, but his recent dismissals of allegations against him (and him ignoring them in the past I believe) places him pretty solid.

[Toto]

Riley why are you voting Hawk? What do you think about sesqs case against you?

Riley, mb, hawk, and sesq who is quiet today. At least 2 of you are town. You need to start participating in the conversation so we can you out. Scumhunt a little biy.

[hapahauli]

Sesq, I see you suggesting that people are suspicious, but you aren't really providing any conclusions.

Who's mafia?

I don't like to put a definte finger down (RE: nebula) but right now I'm saying it's 2 out of Hawk, Riley and MB.

Not putting a definite finger down is one thing, but it seems like you're throwing suspicion around.

Like in one of your more recent posts, you call a post by Hiraki scummy:
http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.ph ... 4#p8902444

But if you have actually read Magna's filter and have been digging for associations as you suggest, it should be pretty clear to you that Hiraki and Magna make very little sense as partners.

[Hawk]

Well I want to believe Elena, I find it odd the BBT and Hapu both come into d2 and point towards Elena but didn't say anything d1 about it. BBT instructed/requested a hammer on Lowell which I can see being scum motivated but that makes me question whether MoL was derailing Sesq or not. Sesq meanwhile questioned the lynch end of d1 near the end despite having moved his vote much more than his counter wagon Nebula. This combined with Nebula holding hard on Sesq till it seemed like Lowell's wagon was gaining actual traction makes me feel uncomfortable about the Elena situation as its indicative that she was either distancing or actually well and truly not paying attention to the game state :/

So maybe that kinda makes sense why I feel like somewhere between the two of you there should be scum? I'm not ruling out T on both of you but if that's so it doesn't make sense for one you to push through on Lowell's lynch so calmly while multiple people SR you slightly ignored Elena for some reaching logic about Lowell not remembering Elena in his TR's. Like I don't mind that Lowell got lynched. I followed that logic because it seemed sound enough and his play besides that pinged me as coasting scum but like everything is lining up weirdly...

Gonna try and make this easier to read for Hapa since he asked.

I want to believe that Elena honestly missed the Lowell wagon near the end of d1.

Hapa coming into the game and immediately pointing at Elena makes some sense, BBT coming in and pointing at it also makes some sense but it bothers me a lot that these two players said nothing about this d1 when we mislynched Lowell.

It bothers me most from BBT because he requested a hammer on Lowell, which could associate him with MoL and I was reevaluating if MoL could have been scum derailing Sesq's wagon which got very close to lynch multiple times d1.

This along with how Sesq didn't immediately jump on Lowell's wagon and the fact that Nebula stayed hard on Sesq until Lowell's wagon truly picked up steam made me question if that was TvT or TvS and I was wrong about Nebula.

But this all plays back to Elena and her missing the Lowell wagon. If Nebbie was scum Elena would not have wanted to be on that wagon near the end with Nebula if she was partner (reason I was having a hard time with Elena cause I thought Nebbie was scum). But if she's town and she honestly just missed the wagon then I don't know if Nebbie is jumping to that wagon as scum or not.

Now that we've gone through the days and MoL and BBT have flipped I'm fairly certain that I was correct in giving Elena benefit of the doubt meaning my top scum pair is

Riley Sesq. And I and my fine lynching either of those.

I don't think Sesq's wagon was going to be stopped unless it was derailed. even if both scum were off it eventually one would have bussed or something could have stuck out. Lowell just got caught by MoL playing sloppily and we fell for it.

The counter claim was brilliantly setup by MoL but that's something we couldn't account for d2. So this makes me think that all this just bought a lot of breathing room for Sesq.

The problem I have with Riley is her saying she'd hammer Sesq but never voted him. It's like I think this guy could be scum but I don't want to mess up and accidentally get a townie lynched. Which is too self preserving as a town mindset considering she wasnt scum hunting d1 like at all.

So yeah can we lynch Sesq? I don't see MB or Elena having anything associative towards MoL that makes me think they're scum and I'm fairly certain there should be scum here with Sesq and Riley.

[Toto]

Can Hawk, Hapa or anyone else clarify why you are clearing Elena from MoL associatives? is that just because she voted MoL?

Also, does anyone town read Riley other than Hiraki? if so, why?

[hapahauli]

Sure.

Two reasons:

1) This post and its context just doesn't make a lot of sense from a mafia perspective.

VOTE: Magna
The fact people have said they'd lynch this but haven't voted here is just outright strange so let's see if people put their money where there mouth is

Elena is pretty inactive for the last 48-72 hours of the game, so much so that she completely misses the Lowell wagon. To be mafia, you have to believe that Elena turned down voting

Nebula

or

Lowell

, and instead call suspicion on a scumbuddy unprovoked at the end of Day 1.

Sesq is also a viable wagon at this time, but again no matter what sesq's alignment, Elena's actions don't make sense from a mafia perspective. If Sesq is mafia, we have to believe that Elena is diverting attention to Sesq by pushing Magna... which what? If Sesq is town, Elena is passing up a mislynch opportunity and further tunneling magna.

2) The Day 2 continued suspicion of Magna.

VOTE: Magna
I have more chance of lynching this over BBT

Again, we have to believe that instead of taking the easy Nebula mislynch opportunity, Elena goes after her scumbuddy instead. She does mention that she could lynch Nebula, but never really attempts to place her vote there. Her concern is pushing Magna/BBT instead, both of whom seemed town-read by most players. If you're mafia, that's a horrible plan if you're trying to survive. There's no survival instinct that I would expect from mafia here.

[Toto]

Sure.

Two reasons:

1) This post and its context just doesn't make a lot of sense from a mafia perspective.

VOTE: Magna
The fact people have said they'd lynch this but haven't voted here is just outright strange so let's see if people put their money where there mouth is

Elena is pretty inactive for the last 48-72 hours of the game, so much so that she completely misses the Lowell wagon. To be mafia, you have to believe that Elena turned down voting

Nebula

or

Lowell

, and instead call suspicion on a scumbuddy unprovoked at the end of Day 1.

Sesq is also a viable wagon at this time, but again no matter what sesq's alignment, Elena's actions don't make sense from a mafia perspective. If Sesq is mafia, we have to believe that Elena is diverting attention to Sesq by pushing Magna... which what? If Sesq is town, Elena is passing up a mislynch opportunity and further tunneling magna.

2) The Day 2 continued suspicion of Magna.

VOTE: Magna
I have more chance of lynching this over BBT

Again, we have to believe that instead of taking the easy Nebula mislynch opportunity, Elena goes after her scumbuddy instead. She does mention that she could lynch Nebula, but never really attempts to place her vote there. Her concern is pushing Magna/BBT instead, both of whom seemed town-read by most players. If you're mafia, that's a horrible plan if you're trying to survive. There's no survival instinct that I would expect from mafia here.

1) You are forgetting that the case against Lowell is that he forgot Elena in his town reads, and Elena being his scum-buddy was thrown around. So, scum!Elena votes MoL as an attempt to make it look like a chainsaw defense of Lowell. I've done this as scum and it is quite effective in getting the townie being wagoned lynched.

2) Did she really push Magna at all to be lynched? She just placed the vote there and didn't really try to convince anyone to vote there from what I can see.

[Hawk]

VOTE: Lowell

Screw it. Flash wagon this scum. BBT I am counting on you to move your vote.

coaching "Hey buddy can you vote Lowell now!" Funny how I don't see a BBT townread anywhere in your iso so that was kinda random on you "counting on bbt to vote Lowell"

I made the coaching accusation because it was the first thing that came to mind reading that. I asked if scum had daychat to see if it was a valid question or not.
Pedit: I could answer your responses but then we'd be going around in circles clogging the thread so why waste my time you clearly have one outlook and I have mine I doubt anything I or you say would change it

1) I didn't see him having votes at all I voted and then went back to work I came back and Lowell was lynched to my shock

So you dropped a vote close to deadline without even checking the gamestate?

Didn't check the deadline I voted and went back to work yes.

I agree very much with Hapa's reasoning. These also stand to me as strong cases of town and not scum. Town tend to have an act first think second so some of these simple mistakes by Elena don't seem to be scum caught. Her strong hold against each counter argument also avoids WIFOM which is something scum I don't think would do. Elena presents defense as this is how it is if you lynch me for it well fuck me I'm not gonna argue about it cause it doesn't help this situation. I think her frustration with town arguments was genuine.

Music might be scum but I have reasons to point towards Riley first. I think if we lynch Sesq here we can sort out Riley Music tomorrow.

Pedit: Yeah but why does she stick to that gun and read D2 instead of pushing Nebula or BBT who arguably looked much worse at the end of d1 and had been scumreads for her. Why push MoL?

[Toto]

Mkay. Those interactions do look genuine. What's your case against Music?

[Music Box]

Elena was voting Magna all Day 2. Also if Sesq is scum I don't think Elena could be her partner, based on Day 1 interactions..

[Hawk]

Mkay. Those interactions do look genuine. What's your case against Music?

I don't really have one... I think i was misremembering the amount of associatives i thought there were between MoL and MB.

So I said I have reasons to point towards Riley first. On review of MB's posting the only thing that truly stands out is he is Parallel with MoL for most of d1. But his reads line up very well for Sesq Riley being the scumteam.

PoE says that if Sesq is scum MB is not Scum. Only came for MB being scum involves Sesq being town and Elena being scum I think.

[Music Box]

@ Hiraki: I'm trying to work out why you switched to scumreading Hawk, from your links in 1558, and as far as I can make out it was because of his switch to calling to calling Nebula town in 1334. Is that right?

Correct - also note that ISO 63 is Hawk flipflopping for strange reasons onto the Nebulla wagon during D1. With the Nebula flip, it doesn't look pretty.

Where did Hawk flipflop on Neb Day 1? Your ISO 63 doesn't seem to relate to that. His read on Neb looked more like natural read progression to me. It was his jump on and off your wagon that bothered me more there.

[Sesq]

Riley why are you voting Hawk? What do you think about sesqs case against you?

Riley, mb, hawk, and sesq who is quiet today. At least 2 of you are town. You need to start participating in the conversation so we can you out. Scumhunt a little biy.

What about NK stuff? That hasn't really been brought up as a whole since Magna flipped scum.

[Sesq]

Yeah, I can't decipher anything from these NK's, they mostly seem to be scum killing the most inactive townies. BUT. BUUUUUUT. Riley feels like they would be an inactivity kill, but they weren't...

Sesq, I see you suggesting that people are suspicious, but you aren't really providing any conclusions.

Who's mafia?

I don't like to put a definte finger down (RE: nebula) but right now I'm saying it's 2 out of Hawk, Riley and MB.

Not putting a definite finger down is one thing, but it seems like you're throwing suspicion around.

Like in one of your more recent posts, you call a post by Hiraki scummy:
http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.ph ... 4#p8902444

But if you have actually read Magna's filter and have been digging for associations as you suggest, it should be pretty clear to you that Hiraki and Magna make very little sense as partners.

Good point on that Hiraki post, I wasn't paying attention as much to associative tells then. The post's tone felt like it was a predetermined plan at the time but in hindsight it doesn't really hold up very well.

[Hiraki]

@ Hiraki: I'm trying to work out why you switched to scumreading Hawk, from your links in 1558, and as far as I can make out it was because of his switch to calling to calling Nebula town in 1334. Is that right?

Correct - also note that ISO 63 is Hawk flipflopping for strange reasons onto the Nebulla wagon during D1. With the Nebula flip, it doesn't look pretty.

Where did Hawk flipflop on Neb Day 1? Your ISO 63 doesn't seem to relate to that. His read on Neb looked more like natural read progression to me. It was his jump on and off your wagon that bothered me more there.

That's what that post insinuates - admittedly, upon re-reading, it doesn't look that way unless you take it into contextual means in which case the quotes in the post were from the 600's while the post itself was part of inquiry about that switch (which he does a couple of posts back from ISO 63)

As much as me and Toto disagree on Riley's alignment, I would like more opinions from that slot to affirm my own and to deconfirm everyone else's suspicions.

[Toto]

K, Riley would be great if you could get in here and explain your reads.

Where did Elena go?

[Toto]

PoE says that if Sesq is scum MB is not Scum. Only came for MB being scum involves Sesq being town and Elena being scum I think.

Can you explain this PoE?

[Creature]

Riley Cake has been prodded.

[Elena Fisher]

K, Riley would be great if you could get in here and explain your reads.

Where did Elena go?

Hey.

[Hawk]

PoE says that if Sesq is scum MB is not Scum. Only came for MB being scum involves Sesq being town and Elena being scum I think.

Can you explain this PoE?

Which part?

The first part makes sense to me. MB'so read were Parallel with MoL on the d1 lynch. He went to Sesq and MoL to Nebula. so if Sesq is scum I don't think MB is scum with him with how planted MB was day one. I recall at some point MB even said he wouldn't be voting Sesq if he null read him at the time and it wasnt as a counter to Nebula but purely because he scumread him. That's some pretty deep distancing and I don't think MB would have done that if Sesq was really his scumbuddy.

Parallel to that MoL pushed Nebula and derailed a Sesq wagon so if Sesq is town then MoL had no reason to flip onto Lowell besides he us to fester over this later in the day (it's unlikely if you think about it). Elena's attacks on MoL would buy her interesting amounts of town cred because no one else despite saying they would vote MoL votes him before Elena. This mix of town cred gained here and the very subtle non engagement between MB and Elena makes me think that maybe they could be scum buddies because I don't see one of them being town and the other scum but this is more gut than logic. I don't think either of them are scum but I can be proven wrong by flipping town on Sesq it just doesn't make much sense to me otherwise but I'm probably missing something.

[Elena Fisher]

I still need to read Magna's iso (again) to try and see if I add hawk to my lynch pool because I thought Magna's attacks on him were gen but bussing has always been my weak point
I 100% think there's 2 scum in Riley/Hawk/MB/Sesq though unless someone has something they wanna share

[Toto]

Parallel to that MoL pushed Nebula and derailed a Sesq wagon so if Sesq is town then MoL had no reason to flip onto Lowell besides he us to fester over this later in the day (it's unlikely if you think about it). Elena's attacks on MoL would buy her interesting amounts of town cred because no one else despite saying they would vote MoL votes him before Elena. This mix of town cred gained here and the very subtle non engagement between MB and Elena makes me think that maybe they could be scum buddies because I don't see one of them being town and the other scum but this is more gut than logic. I don't think either of them are scum but I can be proven wrong by flipping town on Sesq it just doesn't make much sense to me otherwise but I'm probably missing something.

Why not consider MB + Riley if Sesq is town?