Open 674: Duck Duck Goose [Game Over]

[BlackVoid]

When I saw that post, I wanted to say "read or replace out" but thought I'd sound like a jerk. Thankfully, Rels did it for me.

But seriously, if you don't want to read a ton of pages, you always have the option of signing /in for a game taking signups. It seems rude to replace in and say you won't read.

Looking forward to Hap's catchup as well.

[BlackVoid]

I just want to first know the number of votes havingfitz has and I want to see where BlackVoid went.

I posted eight hours ago and then I went to work... I would actually very much like you to be more active because POE is hard and you are one slot that if you put in your best effort, I can have a more solid townread. Anything I can do to help you bring back the energy you had in Mini 1843?

Catching up on the rest now.

[BlackVoid]

I'm not unvoting Hap. From his end, he barely had any interaction with Hawk. Just two posts 687 and 725 where he interacts with Hawk but doesn't state a read on him. Then comes 1371 saying Hawk is probably mafia right when he votes him at deadline. He also never retracts his Aubrey scumread which I find suspicious just because of how unlikely it was for them to be partners based on how Hawk jumped on the Aubrey wagon. Since then his prod-dodging did nothing to change my mind.

With that said, I'd prefer to not end the day anytime soon. There's so much information we still need in order to solve the game and cutting it short will put us on the backfoot. For example, I've been waiting for a lot of these things to happen:
1. Momo catching up and thoroughly explaining his reads.
2. Kop either doing the same and explaining his Rels read or him getting replaced and the replacement getting up to speed.
3. Hap finding time for this game and giving us his updated thoughts.
4. Fitz's outoforder case.
5. Creature hopefully becoming more active.
We can't just let Momo and Kop skate by and end the day. Because in case we're wrong about them being town, we'll never get a chance to figure it out unless we prod them into activity. So, that's my reason for wanting to prolong the day.

@momo - when you voted Fitz, what were you basing your decision on? Could you also lay out reasons for your scumreads on Kop, Hap, and Rels?

@outoforder - you were unsure about Hapahauli yesterday. Is your sole reason for townreading him that he showed up at deadline to put down a vote on Hawk? He already said earlier when Aubrey was a likely lynch that he'd be back before deadline. If he didn't show up and Hawk got lynched, that would look pretty bad for him. If he didn't show up and Hawk was lynched D2, that would also look bad for him. But voting when he did makes it a lot more ambiguous so I don't really see that as a strong reason to townread him. You got any other reason? I'm not one to buy into the "lynch me and do this" stuff. If you are town, just walk me through exactly why you are townreading Hap and scumreading Fitz and I'll take that into consideration. Your thoughts on KidAmn would be much appreciated as well.

@Creature - can you do one of striked-out lists showing who you townread and who you suspect? Why do you want to end the day early when the last time you did it in Mini 1843 for D5 and D6, town lost? You don't look like you have the game figured out so help me out here.

[BlackVoid]

Okay, so which arguments did you find most convincing for each of your scumreads?

[BlackVoid]

Trying to POE the game, I decided to go through people's interactions with Hawk. I'll start with these three today. I'll do the remaining six players in a couple more sections tomorrow.

Creature & Hawk interactions:

From a re-read, I'm fairly positive Creature is town. There's a consistent thread of gamesolving through his ISO where he zeroes in on Hap and Hawk as scum. His interactions with Hawk don't look like bussing. He immediately latches onto Hawk's bad entrance pushing Doomfeathers, always has him as a scumread and is willing to lynch him. His choice to vote Hawk at deadline over Kop matches up with his reads perfectly. I liked 351, 630, 631, 638, 641, and 1313 in particular. His Hap read resonates with me because I share it. As for Hawk's posts, the sequence in 537 and 538 seemed like a genuine interaction with Creature pressing his scumread Hawk for a stance on his other scumread Hap, and Hawk resisting. 669 gives me slight pause because Hawk tries to stretch for a reason to not lynch Creature. But Hawk's shade-throwing at Creature and trying to get people paranoid of him in 659 and finally him pointing fingers at Creature's vote on Aubrey being more opportunistic than his own, seals Creature as a strong townread for me.

KidAmn & Hawk interactions:

I'm not as sure here but I think KidAmn is probably town. 538 is the biggest indicator where Hawk sides with Hap over KidAmn and parrots what Rels said earlier about KidAmn's reaction being bad. 377 sounded like he was unhapppy with the townread on KidAmn; I think if KidAmn was a partner, Hawk would be fine with him getting townreads. I'm not sure how I feel about his vote in 787 where he says we can always come back to Hap but that he needed to pressure KidAmn to get him talking. 789 felt like coaching at first glance but doesn't make sense to do with daytalk. The only time KidAmn talks to Hawk is 534 which is probably a very slight lean towards not-partners given how he's trying to convince Hawk. I don't get KidAmn's townread on Cass in the space between 817 and 895 or willingness to vote Rels just on Cass's word. But I think he believes in his Hap push. I wouldn't say it's impossible that he's on a team with Fitz/Hawk but I just don't see KidAmn being scum in the first place.

Cass & Hawk interactions:

While I'm wary of Cass, I think 1398 showed pride in having "correctly" read Hawk as town - and it's true, she did townread Hawk since replacing in. I don't think it was an entirely unreasonable read. Hawk made some very good, introspective, reflective posts. I do want to know why vote Hawk over Kop if you were so sure that I was scum and I was hard-pushing Hawk. You never wondered that I might be scum partnered with Kop and was pushing Hawk as a counterwagon? 660 and 865 looked like town genuinely having a townread. My biggest concern with Cass is that she reminds me a lot of how the scumteam in Mini 1843 (Cloudkicker, MariaR, and Sotty7) played. There were a ton of over-the-top genuine-sounding interactions and hard-defending. If Cass is from Epic-Mafia, I'd be fairly confident she's scum, otherwise leaning town but somewhat of a tossup. I'll have to come back to this as I'm mostly dismissing her as town for that reaction in twilight.

Summary - There's no way Creature is scum. KidAmn's interactions with Hawk are unremarkable but his posts by itself seem town. Cass is tough to read and I'm setting her aside for later but I'm leaning towards that reaction after Hawk's lynch being slightly town.

[BlackVoid]

Going to look over Fitz's and outoforder's cases on each other in a bit but first:

@Mod

- can you prod hapahauli?

[BlackVoid]

I think that's L-1. No one hammer please. I'm going to do a review of D2.

[L-1] havingfitz - outoforder, cassielle, momo, Kop, hapahauli
[L-2] hapahauli - BlackVoid, Rels, Creature, havingfitz
[L-5] outoforder - KidAmn

@Hap, when you voted Hawk, were you still scumreading Aubrey? And give me more than just "it's Fitz/Rels and it's obvious." I could see them potentially being scum and I could also see you as scum and anything to help get a better read would be appreciated.

[BlackVoid]

Okay, why Rels? I don't like Rels' hesitation to vote Hawk towards the end of deadline but I do think Hawk voting Rels after I made my case on you seems like an odd thing for a partner to do. I also thought Rels' progression on Hawk looked fairly natural.

[BlackVoid]

What mafia objectives is Rels pushing? That whole paragraph is really weird. I'm not sure on Fitz but I have a really hard time buying Hap as town here. Can someone unvote Fitz while I re-read please.

@Cass, KidAmn - you were pretty set on wanting to lynch Hap. What happened now?

[BlackVoid]

How can you say "Kop is the margin of error" given Hawk was scum and Fitz was pushing him as a counterwagon, and Rels initially voted there before I kept pushing him to switch to Hawk. If either of them are scum with Hawk, it's pretty unlikely Kop is scum. That read doesn't even make any sense.

I don't have a solid townread on Fitz but I think we should lynch Hap and go from there.

[BlackVoid]

We did it boyz.

Random thoughts on the game:

1) The activity overview will tell you everything you need to know about what happened. Town ate itself alive while scum comfortably lurked to victory. MusicBox and I were far and away the least active players alive. I don't consider myself fairly good at scum, but I was never given any opportunity to make mistakes, given how little pressure I had on me.

By the way, he just won a scumgame and posted this at endgame. Lmao.

[BlackVoid]

When you showed up right at deadline, if you read any of the posts that rl day, you'd see that I was pushing Aubrey hard, then went back and called him town and called Hawk's vote opportunistic. How did you not have an opinion on that? You didn't seem to have any sort of revelation that Aubrey was town that led you to Hawk. It was just "if not Aubrey, then Hawk." Did you think Hawk was bussing there?

[BlackVoid]

If Hap was legitimately busy the last couple of weeks, I think he would say at endgame something like "sorry guys, I was legit busy irl and it had nothing to do with me being scum." He would point out the activity overview and go "look at this, I'm a cheeky scumbag that lurked to a win." The most likely explanation I see here is that he was scum in both games and that's why he wasn't very active on site.

[BlackVoid]

wouldn't*

[BlackVoid]

Yeah, except Fitz was looking pretty bad from defending Hawk as was Rels from hesitating to vote him. If neither of them are your partners, I can easily see you bussing to score two mislynches which would put the game in MyLo since it's a 12P game. There was a decent chance Hawk was going to get lynched at some point. If he was lynched over your objections, it's pretty much a guaranteed loss for you. If we no lynched or you managed to (mis)lynch Kop, and I hard-pushed Hawk on D2 and got him lynched, you'd still look pretty bad and would likely be lynched D3. Your best shot at winning at that point would be a clean bus.

[BlackVoid]

Okay, how about you explain why Hawk voted Rels when the wagon was picking up as a counterwagon to you? If Rels is the partner, Hawk had plenty of other options there.

[BlackVoid]

And you seem to have played with Rels a lot. Why didn't you say anything about his alignment when he was pushing you for a good part of D1? You were mostly just trying to convince him that you were town. You only throw him out there as a scumread now when it's looking like he might be a possible suspect.

[BlackVoid]

@Hap - Rels voted Hawk a few hours before lylo too.

@KidAmn - It was the second sentence from that post that made me feel like you were warming up to a Fitz lynch. You also started off the day voting outoforder as opposed to Hap who was your most confident scumread from D1. Who would you be voting if you had to pick between Hap and Fitz?

[BlackVoid]

*few hours before end of D1. (Not sure why I said lylo)

[BlackVoid]

If it was so obvious to Hap that Fitz got his "hand caught in the cookie jar," I think he'd have at least mentioned that in the multiple times he was online the last four real-life days instead of just prod-dodging.

[BlackVoid]

Okay, so hapahauli just replaced into another game. That pretty much confirms that he's scum and his excuses for being busy are a load of bullshit.

Can someone please take Fitz off of L-1 and lynch Hap? We can revisit Fitz tomorrow.

[BlackVoid]

By the way, if I die tonight, re-evaluate everyone, don't quicklynch people, don't be complacent. The only person I trust is Creature so hopefully, he's able to lead the town to a win and others listen to him. I'm going to try and get a final reads post out before Tenshii locks the thread.

[BlackVoid]

Yeah. Me, Rels, Creature, Fitz, KidAmn, and Kop.

[BlackVoid]

By the way, Kop isn't clear and could be scum with Hap. If Kop is scum, then him being the counterwagon to scum-Hawk is meaningless because in that scenario Fitz and Rels would both be town. I'll copy-paste the stuff I was writing up about Kop last night: There are only two significant interactions here. The first is the back-and-forth in 356 where Hawk soft-suspects Kop of scumslipping and Kop's response in 520 where he clarifies but doesn't take a stance on Hawk's alignment. The second is the sequence of 887, 888, and 889 which happened the page after my first reads-wall. It's possible that when it seemed like the momentum would swing from Hap to Rels, both Kop and Hawk latched onto that. I wouldn't discount Cass as scum for the same reason.

I spent quite some time D1 thinking Cass and Hap were cross-bussing. That's something that should be considered as well.

outoforder has a bunch of interactions with Hap that I think would be hard to fake but I'm no longer reading him as obvtown after his defense of Hap D2 and he should be considered in more detail. He engaged Hawk early but didn't really say much about Hawk except having him as a tertiary scumread towards the end of D1.

Fitz probably isn't scum with Hap. I can't rule it out entirely without looking more closely but I'm thinking he'd jump at the Rels or KidAmn wagons D1 if he were scum.

Doomfeathers is the only reason I'm townreading Momo. His contribution has been really bad and he needs to be forced to step it up tomorrow. Hawk came in pushing Doom but never really followed up on that. I still think the way Doom replaced out while guessing the scumteam is a towntell though.

Creature is 100% town and KidAmn most likely is too.

Rels is probably the toughest to sort. I still feel there was something weird about the "Welcome to the game hapahauli" phrase he said followed by withdrawing his scumread and pushing whoever Hap wanted as the lynches for the day. I wouldn't discount a bus possibility entirely if he thought Fitz would get lynched today and then he could push outoforder next before finally hard-bussing and getting to mylo. I did think there were a few genuine posts though where he "realized" that outoforder is mafia.

So yeah, if I'm dead, whoever is alive please gamesolve and don't quicklynch. At least take a week per day phase if you don't want to use all the time.

[BlackVoid]

I really do want to know how Cass winded up on the Fitz wagon after having Hap as such a confident scumread D1. Hap/Hawk interactions actually sealed it rather than be cause for doubt.

[BlackVoid]

I was wondering if you might be right. Kop's post saying that he can "take one for the team" rang townish and I have doubts about almost every other slot in the game. Doom was the one I never interacted with because he stopped posting right around the time I replaced out and Momo's contribution has been terrible.

I'm mostly hung up on that replace out scumteam guess and his early posts looking somewhat townish with him reading other games. Going to ISO Doom again with knowledge of flips.

[BlackVoid]

Doom was always on the wrong wagons though. He was on Kop when it was Kop vs Hap. He was on KidAmn when it was KidAmn vs Hap. He was back on Kop when it was Kop vs Hawk.

[BlackVoid]

How good is outoforder as scum in general? How does he normally treat his partners?

[BlackVoid]

Okay, you just answered the first question. With outoforder, it's not his "okay with being lynched" post that I'm hesitating on. It's more that he was a driving force behind the early part of D1 in a way I've rarely seen from scum before. His later play and then D2 play eroded that townread a lot. He was all over Hap early in the game. Is that the kind of thing you've seen him fake before with a partner?

[BlackVoid]

Yeah doom/momo can be mafia.

I never bus. There is no way Hawk gets lynched D1 if i am scum here. You can be sure of that.

The Hawk wagon sprung up after you left. You didn't know Hawk was getting lynched until you showed up at deadline and he was at L-1.

[BlackVoid]

You had your vote parked on Fitz who wasn't getting lynched and your last post before you left was 1227. Aubrey was at L-2 at that point with no votes on Hawk (see VC in 1230). Then I unvoted after that and pushed Hawk. When you showed up again in 1376 and said you had 10 minutes, Hawk was at L-1. I asked you to hammer and you did.

Saying there's no way Hawk gets lynched D1 if you are scum here feels like you are misrepresenting what actually happened. What exactly were you going to do in the 10 minutes you had to sway the wagon off of Hawk? You were pretty much forced into hammering. There were a couple of hours left to deadline and if somebody else hammered, that would have looked bad.

It also fits into my theory that Hap bussed to score two mislynches on Fitz and Rels. In that case, his partner would be in a decent position and you fit into that profile. I can easily see the two of you bussing Hawk to mislynch people defending him.

[BlackVoid]

I don't think I'm underestimating you. I came into the game reading you as obvtown. The Aubrey wagon had a lot more momentum than the Hap wagon at that point so it makes more sense to just let town lynch Aubrey while fishing for cred. You had Hawk as your third scumread and Kop as your second. I think it would be a hard sell to get everyone on Kop in 10 minutes while you had Hawk as a scumread.

[BlackVoid]

Yeah, I'm leaning towards it being more likely outoforder than Momo. The way he defended Hap when I invited him to discuss reads just didn't make any sense and felt like a stretch.

Creature is town for more than just that "dumbtell." If you were reading his ISO, you'd see that he spent the vast majority of his time trying to get both Hawk and Hap lynched. KidAmn, I'm townreading mostly for how emotional his reaction was to Hap pushing him. Didn't feel fabricated. Fitz I think is town because he argued against your (Rels) wagon as well as KidAmn's and pushing against two town wagons to lynch his buddy doesn't make sense to me. I also doubt he would scumread a partner and give reasoning like "Rels and outoforder scumread him so that should be taken into consideration." His reasoning for townreading Hawk was the same as mine initially (Hawk's long wall), and he was pretty consistent throughout. If he were indeed townreading Hawk, then I can see him arguing against the lynch. So, that's three people I'm fairly sure are town (Creature, KidAmn, and Fitz).

That leaves you (Rels) who I need to re-read but I'm leaning town, Cass, Kop, Momo, and outoforder. Those reads are roughly in the order of towniest to scummiest.

[BlackVoid]

@Rels, the one thing stopping me from solidly townreading you is your reaction to Hap's cases on KidAmn, Fitz, and Kop D1. Can you explain what made you change your mind there?

[BlackVoid]

Yeah, 1425 pinged me slightly when I read it but for different reasons. Telling Cass she was disruptive because she was pushing me before Hawk's flip feels manipulative given Cass wouldn't know that I had led a lynch on mafia and would just be arguing for what she thought was best.

[BlackVoid]

Okay thanks, I'll look it over when I get a bit more time later on. What do you think of outoforder and Hap's initial interaction D1? outoforder did start out launching a push on Hap which if he doesn't bus would be an outlier. He kept at it until he went V/LA. When he got back, he started on the Fitz push and never pushed Hap again though so that was weird.

[BlackVoid]

Yeah, before you go, what's your read on Kop?

[BlackVoid]

I'm glad he flipped. I still think it's outoforder but I want to re-read the entire game from cover to cover once before I put down a vote. Where are you at readswise?

[BlackVoid]

Momo doesn't seem to have any completed games. But I'll take a look at Doom more closely while I read.

[BlackVoid]

@outoforder, you said bussing makes very little sense in this setup. Why are you so convinced HavingFitz bussed Hap D1 when he could have gone for the KidAmn or Rels wagons instead?

[BlackVoid]

In 908, he argues against the Rels wagon and strongly takes a stance saying he won't join it. He also townreads KidAmn and Kop (two other potential wagons) and scumreads Creature, Cass, Hap, and you (outoforder). As seen in the VC next post (909), with the stances he's taken, he pretty much set himself up to vote Hap as none of his other scumreads are viable. Why would he argue against a Rels wagon when it was seemingly the only alternative to his buddy Hap?

[BlackVoid]

That's not 1.5 weeks, that's 2.5 days. That's on Feb 27th 1:42 PM. Deadline was on Mar 1st 11:00 PM.

[BlackVoid]

I'm not talking about when he unvoted. I'm talking about the part where he speaks out against the Rels' wagon when it was the only alternative to Hap with less than 2.5 days remaining in the day phase. That pretty much locks him into voting Hap unless unforseen events occur (like me making a hard push on Aubrey). But you are right in that Fitz delays voting Hap a lot though both D1 and D2 so I'll look into it again.

[BlackVoid]

Fitz's posts were actually pretty consistent. He was townreading Hawk and scumleaning Aubrey so he was okay with an Aubrey lynch but not with a Hawk one. That worldview makes sense for a town-Fitz to have. Fitz also was okay with a Hap lynch but not with a Rels lynch which also makes sense. The consistent theme here is that Fitz is defending people he was reading as town and being okay with lynching non-townreads. Nothing in that betrays that he's going out of his way to defend scum and mislynch town. He originally townread Hawk because of Hawk's walls - the same ones I initially townread him for, so I don't even find the original Hawk townread to be suspicious in the first place. Now, if he was town and townread Hawk, he obviously wouldn't be voting him and would be looking elsewhere.

[BlackVoid]

If Fitz was mafia, he could have just not said anything and let town lynch Rels instead of speaking out against the wagon. The reason I don't see mafia motivation is that by discouraging the Rels' wagon, he's making it more likely that momentum swings back to Hap and therefore lose a buddy.

[BlackVoid]

@outoforder - how confident are you in Rels being town? I'd also like to know your thoughts on the doom/Momo slot. I have a hard time seeing Fitz as scum and those are the two slots I have some paranoia on so if you are town, I'd love to get your thoughts there.

[BlackVoid]

Mine comes down to the fact that Doom's treatment of the Hap wagon was somewhat similar to Hawk's. He voted ounterwagons to Hap while calling Hap scum. See 678 and 807.

[BlackVoid]

So, around seven hours from now which would be around 10:30 PM PST? Sure.

[BlackVoid]

Yeah, I got through doom's ISO and changed my mind. There are so many newb-towntells there I'm reasonably sure the slot is town.

Isn't there any way we can get momo force-replaced out? It seems really shitty of him to replace into a game that people are taking seriously and decide to not read and basically troll.

[BlackVoid]

Momo is replacing into more games while ignoring this one. I'm not even sure what to do at this point with regard to that slot. This is frustrating.

[BlackVoid]

Reading through D2, I'm feeling more confident that Rels is town. He was actually the first one who brought up Hawk/Hap interactions looking scummy. I touch on them before that but I haven't yet voted Hap at that point. I'll post updated thoughts once I finish.

@Outoforder - are you here? I need to log off for a bit but I'll be back in around 20-30 minutes. Feel free to info-dump and I'll engage with your content when I get back.

Pedit: okay, I'll read that when I get back in half an hour.

[BlackVoid]

Okay I'm back. Took longer than expected.

@outoforder, you made some good points on Fitz. I do want him to explain why he moved to Kop as opposed to moving back to Hap when his reads dictated that Hap should be his preferred choice. In fact, there were more votes on Hap than Kop at the time he voted.

There are several other things I'm hung up on though: Fitz suspects Hap primarily because you and Rels suspected him and he thought the meta should be taken into account. I don't get why he would do this if it was meta on a buddy. He'd be giving you and Rels cred for the Hap flip when he could have taken it for himself. But I can see a town-Fitz thinking that you and Rels being confident on Hap-scum might have some validity and factoring that into his read. I also think the questions he asked like whether you or Rels ever mislynched Hap were odd things to ask a buddy. Hap's response (that you haven't) lends even more credibility to Hap being scum and it was a question Fitz could have asked Hap in the scum thread and then simply refrained from asking in public.

Fitz voted Hap with over a week left during D1, that's true. But it was still a building wagon and it seemed like there was a decent chance that Hap would get lynched. He passed up several opportunities to lynch town in order to put down that vote.

I'm also curious about why Hap would bus Hawk when he did (the reason you were so convinced he was town D2) instead of either not showing up or just pushing Kop hard and then using Hawk to nightkill me. At the time I was pushing hard on a Hawk/Fitz/Rels team so one explanation I could think of was that he wanted to bus so he could get those mislynches next. If he was partnered with Fitz, it seems very uncoordinated of them for Fitz to defend Hawk and Hap to bus although I could see the two of you (outoforder and Hap) deciding that a last minute bus of Hawk would get you two enough towncred to go to endgame which fits your D2 behavior of insisting that Hap's vote meant he was town and then pushing Fitz and Rels. If you could get those mislynches and nightkill me and Creature, that would get you to mylo so I see a potential winning gameplan there. I'm not sure what Hap and Fitz would have been planning.

[BlackVoid]

I literally don't think anyone can be mafia except for fitz. If he would flip town i am completely lost. If i had to do something after that, i would lynch (in this order):
momo - creature - rels - BV - cassielle/KidAmn

Why are Creature and Cassielle where they are? I'd interchange them. The hard townread on Cassielle is pretty weird actually.

[BlackVoid]

If Cass thought she'd get towncred, of course she'd say it so that everyone thinks "Cass really didn't know that Hawk was mafia, she must be town!"

How is that single, potentially fake-able reaction more town than Creature pushing Hap and Hawk all of D1?

[BlackVoid]

I wasn't including me in the list. I obviously think I'm the towniest but I may be biased. My list from towniest to scummiest would be:

Creature, KidAmn, Rels, Doom/Momo // Fitz, Cass, outoforder.

The first four I'm pretty sure are town. The Momo read might need explaining but it's 100% based off of Doom's newb-towntells and the fact that Momo just seems like lynchbait. If I'm wrong about you, Cass and Fitz are where I'd look. I was fairly confident Fitz was town but you made some good points so I want to do another re-read on him.

[BlackVoid]

Creature isn't a player who will hard-push lynches and make elaborate cases. His "pushes" on Hap and Hawk D1 are the extent I'd expect him to push. He also has good intuition as town and from a couple of scumgames I've skimmed, is reluctant to bus as scum. He stayed pretty firm in his Hap and Hawk suspicions throughout D1, voted Hawk when he had the option to vote Kop, and took a strong stance on voting Hap over Fitz D2.

[BlackVoid]

Actually the NK made me think it was probably you. Consider for a minute: who has the motivation to make a "weird nk" right now? When there's a weird nk, it usually points to either someone widely townread being mafia, or someone widely scumread who needs several more lynches to win and needs to break up a "townbloc" being mafia. If one of Creature, or KidAmn were mafia, they could have shot the other and me to get to mylo. In that worldview, Kop was pretty much a free mislynch in addition to you and Momo. I doubt Cass makes that nk since she could just shoot from players who are more "obviously" town than her and make it to lylo easy. I can't comment on what kills Momo may or may not make. That leaves you, Fitz, and Rels. I think Fitz might want to leave me alive because I was townreading him towards the end of D2 and might support a push on you. I think Rels may want me alive since he'd want to count on my support while pushing your lynch. I think you'd want me alive because if you kill me, that leaves the field clear for Rels to lynch you D3. If you kill Rels, it's likely I'd push a lynch on you D3. So, you'd be in a conundrum. Either me or Rels could push your lynch so your safest bet would be a "gambit" where you leave both of us alive and cause paranoia among everyone that something is off.

After the events of D2, you were the most likely lynch the following day. So, you had the most motivation to "shake things up" and make people second-guess themselves. For everyone else, Kop was a free mislynch. You were the only player (besides maybe Momo) who was likely to be lynched

before

Kop. There's also the possibility you expect Rels to townread you for the kill which you keep insisting.

[BlackVoid]

So, why does Fitz shoot Kop?

[BlackVoid]

What does it matter if i get lynched before or after Kop?

I was probably unclear. What I was saying was: if anybody else was mafia, Kop would have been one of their mislynches on the road to a win. You were the only person to whom this didn't apply because there's more than a decent chance you get lynched before Kop and the game ends. So, you'd have to make a kill that changes the gamestate and makes everyone rethink all their reads. A Kop kill does that.

[BlackVoid]

If that is the case i would 100% take the risk to shoot you on N2 considering the state the game is at.

I was the only person even listening to you though. If you shoot me, nothing changes. Rels would lead the lynch on you and Fitz would happily join in. You've already alienated Cass and KidAmn so they'd be unlikely to stick their necks out to save you and one of the lurkers would finish the job. Killing me N2 pretty much assures you'll get lynched D3.

[BlackVoid]

How can you even say that when you supect Cassielle????!?!?!?

I'm not sure I follow. What does my suspicion of Cass have to do with anything?

[BlackVoid]

I'm not trying to convince you you're mafia. I'm bringing up my suspicions of you so you can respond to them and if you are town, convince me I'm wrong. I'm not the kind of player to lynch through a bunch of suspects and be happy if I lynch mafia 50% of the time. I'll never be completely happy with my performance unless I lynched mafia 100% of the time and I have every intention of ending the game today. So, yeah I'll look over your case on Fitz and re-read until I'm absolutely sure. But right now, I'm not convinced that Fitz is more likely to be mafia than you. I do want to observe Fitz's ISO closely though. There's something about his D2 posting where I felt he wasn't particularly excited to lynch his scumread Hap so I want to look more into that.

Regarding Cass and KidAmn, both claimed that you were using personal attacks towards the beginning of D2. I'll have to continue my read of D2 to see what happened later but bottomline is I think you'd rather have me alive than either of them.

By the way, question for Fitz;

@HavingFitz -

can you post examples where you were against a scum lynch as town (or just against any lynch and where you defended that player in a somewhat similar way to how you defended Hawk here). Also, can you show examples as town where you held onto your vote and didn't vote until very late in the day? You did this both D1 and D2 here.

[BlackVoid]

So, just to be clear, you think Fitz is town now?

[BlackVoid]

@Rels, give me a link to an outoforder game where he did something similar to this.

@outoforder, what is Rels' motivation to 1v1 you with three lynches to go? He could have easily pretended to "re-evaluate" on the basis of the kill, get in a Fitz mislynch, maybe get in another mislynch and then go after you, especially with you townreading him. Also, what happened to your previous analysis that Rels' never busses Hap in the way he did?

[BlackVoid]

@outoforder - you are arguing that Fitz would leave me alive simply because I was townreading him. But over the course of the game, I've changed my mind several times and re-assessed reads when necessary. For instance, pushing Aubrey, backing off and pushing Hawk. More importantly, I said at the end of D1 that Fitz and Rels were Hawk's partners but lynched Hap D2. I don't think my reads staying static is something the scum can rely on. I was left alive over Kop and I think there's a deeper strategic reason than just what my reads were at the end of D2. That reason being what Rels and I have pointed out: a weird kill to shake up everyone's reads. I very much doubt Fitz thought "BV townread me at the end of D2 so I'll leave him alive and kill Kop the mislynch bait."

[BlackVoid]

Heading off to bed. It's 5AM my time. Hopefully Momo sees the new pages, gets discouraged and replaces out and someone good replaces in.

Quick question before I go, @Rels, why does it take you so long after daystart to start posting?

[BlackVoid]

Yeah, I'm pretty much sold. In particular I don't think outoforder claiming that the nk conclusively clears him was reasonable nor do I think his defense of Hapahauli on D2 made any sense and just felt convoluted.

I want

Fitz

to catch up and post thoughts and then I'm down to lynch. I've dismissed Momo as a troll and I think Doom's posting has been town.

[BlackVoid]

@Fitz, okay I'll look over the games. Another question you might have missed: when I unvoted Aubrey D1 and voted Hawk, why did you switch to your weak townread Kop instead of going back to your scumread Hap? Hap had more votes at the time too.

[BlackVoid]

@Rels, what do you think of outoforder and Hap discussing reads D1 and going over their disagreement of Fitz and Aubrey? Start reading from 1191 onwards. Interactions seem too genuine for mafia to have. I also thought the way Hap reacted to outoforder at the beginning of the game looked like scum walking on eggshells around a townie as opposed to two scum distancing although that entire interaction was in the span of some 24 hours so I'm not sure I can read much into it. Slightly uneasy here so I want to double-check all other possibilities first.

[BlackVoid]

@Creature - help me solve this game please.

[BlackVoid]

Hap spends the time near the end of D1 trying to convince outoforder to lynch Kop over Fitz. Like Rels said, it could be staged. But it could also be Hap just trying to sway outoforder off of his scumbuddy and onto Kop. See 1199 and 1200. But the reasoning he uses feels similar to what Prohawk used to townread Tenshii in scumteam unpick (he backed off of me therefore he is town). But if neither outoforder nor Fitz are scum, I'm not sure whether Cass makes more sense than Doom/Momo. There's no way Creature or KidAmn are scum.

[BlackVoid]

If you are town, I feel you man. It can be hard when everyone is conf-biased into you being scum and is refusing to consider anything else. I'm trying my best to make sure to explore every possibility though.

Here's what I got from

logical deduction:

Hawk's interaction with Hap were extremely scummy because he was voting every counterwagon possible. Hap was also lurking. We lynched Hap. You did everything you could to build a counterwagon to Hap and prevent his lynch. The most logical conclusion is that you're his partner and you were trying to keep him alive. A less logical and less likely conclusion is that were town townreading him for the reasons you did. But I'm still re-reading the game and I'm trying to see your side. I haven't given up trying to see if I'm wrong yet.

[BlackVoid]

Why did you conclude that he was town at the end of D1 though?

[BlackVoid]

I recall you calling me scum D1 when I apparently couldn't understand your Fitz case D1. How are you now saying I was super-town?

[BlackVoid]

It is rather odd though that Hap did nothing to stop his lynch and Hap and Fitz didn't vote each other until it was pretty much confirmed that the lynch was between the two of them.

[BlackVoid]

@outoforder, can you explain your reasons for why you are townreading doomfeathers?

[BlackVoid]

@Fitz - so, part of the reason you didn't get back on Hap was because I made a town-case on him? What point specifically did you find most convincing?

Also, is there a reason you haven't voted outoforder right now or pushed for his lynch? If you were confident that he's the last scum, I'd have expected a stronger push there or some sort of reaction to me and Rels saying that we should lynch him. You never commenting on that or making a push on him is weirding me out.

@outoforder - I'm referring to 1007.

[BlackVoid]

@Tenshii

- can you replace Momo? I think there's definitely a case where mods can choose to not count prod-dodges as posts and basically require game-advancing content in order to reset the prod/replace timer.

[BlackVoid]

I was pretty much reading outoforder as town and your confidence in that scumread was the only thing holding me back from backing out entirely so this is good.

I think it's probably Fitz but I'm not entirely sure. It can't be Doom's slot. The way he tried to meta Fitz and came away with nothing is too strong a towntell to cement other stuff like his pre-replace out scumteam guess. It can't be KidAmn for that emotional outburst to Hap pushing him and staying on Hap throughout D1, and it can't be Creature. Your posts have been super town and you pushed Hap early D2 so I don't think it's you. It pretty much just leaves Fitz and Cass and I'm leaning towards it being Fitz.

[BlackVoid]

If it's purely because of the end-of-day reaction, I've seen similar really good fake reactions from scum before. I find her posting on the whole to be unrelatable which is what is holding back (probably with a dose of unjustified paranoia because my only loss as town on this site so far was to a team containing two epic mafia players (Cloudkicker and MariaR) who did very well faking genuine reactions). I haven't forgotten that Cass called Hap 100% scum and then voted you. She was also on the Fitz wagon D2 instead of her super-strong scumread Hap and has for the most part been coasting after making a huge splash D1.

It's probably Fitz though. Hap seemed to have pretty much given up towards the end of D2 and I doubt he puts Fitz at L-1 the way he did and basically get lynched if Fitz was town. It seemed like there was an ulterior motive there. His early sheep onto Fitz after Aubrey voted him gave me bus-vibes. He did spend the end-of-D1 trying to convince outoforder to lynch Kop over Fitz though the reasoning he used is weird to defend a partner with ("Fitz backed off of me, therefore Fitz is town").

[BlackVoid]

Regarding Hap's attack on Cass: He backs off of Cass pretty quickly once you call her obvtown though and forgets about the push entirely later on.

[BlackVoid]

All Cass said about the events today was that scum were either you or outoforder. That's a pretty advantageous stance for scum to take.

[BlackVoid]

I'm wary of stuff like that. Here's a recent game where a townie (Raskolnikov) got hammered in F5 with one scum alive (Cloudkicker) and he trolled and claimed scum. Scum had a pretty legit reaction. I'm sure I read a game where scum had the exact same reaction as Cass did somewhere.

[BlackVoid]

But on the whole, I think my feelings towards Cass are more paranoia than anything concrete. outoforder has won me over and now I think it's probably Fitz for the final scum.

[BlackVoid]

Fitz's posts seemed somewhat genuine actually but this is really difficult to make a call on.

@Cass, was there a towngame of yours in the past where you just decide to sheep a townread just because you were wrong before?

Also, can you describe your scumplay? How good would you say you are? Do you win often? Can you link me to your homesite so I can look through a few games?

[BlackVoid]

I don't know if "lynch me instead of Hap" makes any sense for outoforder to do as town when Hap was pretty obviously scummy and lurking especially if they knew each other from before. Rels' 2250 makes sense too. Why would you quit mafia after a game you likely with scumlynches D1, D2, and D4 (since you are so sure Fitz is scum) and you get lynched? I need more time to think this through as well.

[BlackVoid]

@Fitz, can you answer my question about what part of my towncase on Hap most persuasive? Also, is there a reason you haven't voted outoforder/shown more enthusiasm about lynching him since you seem really confident he's scum?

[BlackVoid]

I'm just really paranoid if there's one scum outside of Fitz/outoforder that they'll make lylo. Neither Fitz nor outoforder are looking past the other and outside of that, me and Rels are the only ones trying to gamesolve. I'd really love it if everyone gets more active. Creature basically ignored me when I asked for help figuring out the game.

@Cass - if you are town, you weren't bad this game. It just so happened that I emphatically derailed your preferred scumlynch and lynched his buddy whom you were townreading so I can understand why you were annoyed overall. But I want a perfect win here and I'm sure you do too. What'll help is everyone re-reading the game from start to end and posting thoughts and trying to figure it out. I'm sure you can do it. Please get back in the game.

I'm heading to work now but I'll re-read the game in its entirety once I'm back tonight.

[BlackVoid]

I am still going to say that whoever of BV/Rels/Creature is alive at lylo should be auto-lynched because they are good enough to solve the game and they will have (after D2) 4 weeks to solve this game with at least 2 of them being alive. If they cannot do that and end up on retarded reads like this, they should be lynched. Always. Even if Fitz is alive at lylo i would lynch onto whoever of those three is alive because they deserve to lose the game whatever alignment they are at that point.

How are you simultaneously arguing this while also arguing we

have

to lynch Fitz and you? You are basically saying if you are wrong on Fitz, town should lose. If you get lynched today, Fitz tomorrow, and one of me/Creature/Rels makes lylo, get lynched and lose. Except if you are wrong on Fitz, you can't expect us to solve the game before lylo while also definitely lynching Fitz. The only way out of that is to not lynch you and you are implying that in a really roundabout fashion. And when I express the possibility of scum outside you/Fitz, you pretty much tell me it has to be him. Nothing you are arguing these past two day phases has been making any sense to me, and this kill whoever of me/Creature/Rels are alive in lylo should be lynched sounds more like a wifomy threat than anything.

Then there's your point on the nightkill. If you want to argue that it's not indicative of anything, that's fine. But you are posting this really weird logic that you "endgamed yourself" by killing Kop but that's not the case at all. You are also implying that Fitz kept me alive because I was townreading him and act like I never re-evaluate or change my reads. Considering how often I've pushed and backed off and changed my mind, it's actually pretty advantageous for Fitz to kill me N2 while I was townreading him so I can't change my mind.

[BlackVoid]

So outoforder, part of the reason you didn't want to lynch Hap D1 was because when he was town, his reads are good, right? Except he was calling KidAmn scum when you claimed that he was town. He was calling Aubrey scum when you were townreading him. He was townreading Fitz while you scumread him. Your reads have been pretty much the polar opposite of each other. How did you never consider his position if you thought he was town nor reconsider your townread on him when his reads were so different than yours? Rels' interaction with Hap makes a lot more sense. He started out scumreading Hap and then when Hap made a case on KidAmn, he townread Hap and started pushing KidAmn in earnest alongside Hap. But you and Hap disagreed on so much, but you just didn't want to lynch him because his reads were good when he is town.

[BlackVoid]

I dont care. Youre mafia BV. Because you have only lynched townies in this game. You should be lynched.

If you mean, I'm town because I only lynched mafia this game, you're totally right.

[BlackVoid]

I'm not set on lynching you nor have I eliminated the possibility of lynching Fitz today. There's something about way Hap gave up that looked really odd and makes me think his partner is someone that no one was scumreading (or at least thought couldn't be partners with him). Hap/outoforder team was thrown around quite a bit before his lynch so that makes me hesitate to lynch you. It does make sense if it's Fitz although the entire town being right and those being the only two options is unlikely. Fitz did seem to be angling to vote you before Hap vs him was set in stone though and they weren't voting each other until pretty much everyone else had voted. I'm still trying to wrap my head around why Fitz would shoot Kop over me. Me dying with a townread on him helps him more than me being alive to re-assess and maybe change that read.

[BlackVoid]

http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=50&t=66650

http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=51&t=69733

no. not mafia. blame me if i am wrong but not mafia in this game.

@outoforder, I'm curious what you found about Aubrey that made you so definitively townread him. Did you read just his ISO or skim through the game as a whole?

[BlackVoid]

BlackVoid...

Yeah, what's up? I asked for your help in gamesolving earlier and you completely ignored me so I'm not sure what to make of that. I think doomfeathers slot is town. Momo is a troll that can't be read so I'm using doom's posts to read him. Is there anything in Doom's posting that you think is suspicious?

I'm going to look over some of Fitz's past scumgames to see how he treats his partners in a bit.

[BlackVoid]

I don't know but do you think he makes 210 as scum, then follows it with 211 where he says he's reading a bunch of Fitz games and can't tell the difference? And he's right. I've read a bunch of Fitz games too and I can't tell the difference either. A newb like doomfeathers reading a bunch of games to figure out someone's alignment because they are paranoid seems pretty genuine. There's also the way he guessed a scumteam when he replaced out that looked town too (1240).

[BlackVoid]

It's not so much the caps but the fact that he was following up on people he was paranoid about. That showed me he was actually interested in getting reads.

But why do you have outoforder and Fitz as town? It's been pretty hard for me to get a read on either.

[BlackVoid]

Can you chill? I get that TL has a meta of superfast days. I just tried signing up for a game there and had to replace out because there were some ten pages in six hours or so. But the pace is a lot slower here and we can take our time. We're not even halfway through the game and there are a lot of things I still want to do before putting down a vote. Just go for a walk or something if you are impatient.

[BlackVoid]

Maybe you should help me bus my final partner before lynching me because clearly I'm bus-happy.

On a more serious note, outoforder - everytime I've seen someone melt down completely and push their own read to the detriment of all else, I remember both players flipping town. Mini 1843, Raskolnikov was completely convinced that no matter what goodmorning (who was later replaced by HavingFitz) was scum. He demanded that everyone lynch both him and Fitz and he was totally fine getting mislynched to get his scumread lynched. I was spectating Mini 1837. Nachomamma8 and Elyse did pretty much the same thing. They were absolutely beyond all doubt convinced that the other was scum. Were totally fine getting lynched to prove it when it turned out neither of them were scum.

I don't find it unlikely at all for Fitz to be scum and there have been a few things that have been bothering me which I'm going to follow up on. But I'd also caution against doing what you are doing in case you are wrong and potentially letting scum slide. The possibility of the last scum being outside of you/Fitz is what makes me most paranoid and I don't want to end the day until I've assuaged all of those concerns. Creature, KidAmn, and Rels are unlikely. Cass and Momo are the ones I'm most worried about. So, just let the thread breathe. At this point, I want to hear most from Cass while I go through Fitz's games.

[BlackVoid]

I didn't like Fitz's case either. "outoforder is putting my name in bolded red text so people will subconsciously associate me with mafia" feels like the sort of trolly case I'd make as scum if I wanted to see what I could get away with.

[BlackVoid]

OoO has been the driving force behind the game so far, and that's incredibly difficult for mafia to fake. I've seen games where OoO was active and the lead poster as mafia, but noneso in a way as productive as this. In dealing with lurkers for example (Moogin, Kop, etc.), he's questioning them and trying to figure out their alignment rather than trying to actively discredit them.

I think this is the sort of read mafia give to townies rather than their buddies. There's also the entire interaction between Hap and outoforder at the beginning of the game that reads to me like Hap was walking on eggshells trying not to trip up outoforder. If they were scum together, I'd expect light distancing rather than Hap appeasing outoforder.

[BlackVoid]

What changed from you saying it was between outoforder and Rels to it being between outoforder and Fitz now?

Also, the high-level scumplay would be Hap's here, not outoforder's if they happen to be partners. Hap treated outoforder like a strong town player that he was afraid of and whom he neeed to win over in order to survive. That's a very counter-intuitive thing to do to your partner and I've seen it faked very few times.

[BlackVoid]

Why would momentum be more likely to make someone scum? I'm asking about your read, not who is likely to be lynched.

What do you think of the Doom/Momo slot in general?

[BlackVoid]

What I'm saying is that the way Hap responds to suspicions from outoforder looks like he wanted to dispel the suspicion rather than the two of them creating scum theater. Little things like "not that easy, is it?" and just repeatedly answering outoforder's questions without ever hitting back with any questions of his own suggests that Hap was trying to get outoforder to back off of him. I'd expect scum theater to be a more mutual thing. For instance, in a game I was spectating (which is Hap's only recent completed scumgame on site), he responds to a partner suspecting him with suspicion of his own.

Spoiler: Hap's scumgame interaction with partner

@Hapa

– Have you read the game in full? If so why no comment on Sesq, Nebula and the Lowell wagon alignment wise? If not why not?

Want to hear what some of my Town reads (Toto, Sesq) have to say before moving forward with a vote.

--

VOTE: Magna
I have more chance of lynching this over BBT

It’s cute that you think this …

Yes, I'm caught up.

Elena is my top scumread by far. I'm not going to post things that distract the town from how bad she looks unless I feel the town needs to hear something.

What do you think of my case?

Surely you don't need the opinions on Toto/Sesq to tell me what you think about Elena.

Elena is my top scumread by far. I'm not going to post things that distract the town from how bad she looks unless I feel the town needs to hear something.

What do you think of my case? Surely you don't need the opinions on Toto/Sesq to tell me what you think about Elena.

Here’s my issue with the first part – there are more than 1 scum in this game. There also are a bunch of Town. Laser focus on a single slot to the exclusion of talking about anyone else in the game is not Pro-Town IMO. Especially from a slot that was not here all of Day 1. I need to be able to sort you and while an avalanche on one slot may be helpful depending on Elena’s alignment there is the possibility that refusing to give other reads is a scum strategy on your part.

I’ll review your case in full once I get input from my Town reads. I already had a soft scum read on Elena. Because today starting as it does after the way the day ended yesterday make me want to see if they are parsing what I am thinking.
...

Lazer focus on one slot helps me get who I want lynched, lynched. It's been an effective strategy in all my town-games over the last month on this site.

Hell, you have plenty of information to read me. It's not my fault or my "scum-strategy" that you're

intentionally not reviewing

my case because you want to wait on your town-reads.

See stuff I bolded in the spoiler. Hitting back at your scumpartner is something I expect from most people and Hap doesn't seem immune to that. He subtly insinuates that his partner is to blame for something. He never does anything of that sort with outoforder, simply responds to questions and tries to get outoforder to back off of him.

It's not conclusive but it's something that makes me pause and think outoforder is more likely town than not.

[BlackVoid]

Yeah, so a quick question Fitz: is it normal for you to take into account suspicion from people who know each other and factor that into your reads? For example, part of the reason you initially scumread Hap was because outoforder and Rels knew him from offsite and were both scumreading him and you were considering that. Do you recall doing that in the past as town or scum?

[BlackVoid]

I think I wanna lynch Cass actually

Let's talk about this more.

[BlackVoid]

I'm not sure where the apathy is coming from though. I'd expect town in your place to be proud of the fact that you correctly scumread Hap D1. But you are using your "semi-wrongness" in order to coast.

What I want is for everyone to participate so we can lynch right today and end the game. I've been reading and re-reading this game and constantly thinking about it and hitting dead-ends. I need someone to offer a fresh perspective.

[BlackVoid]

Creature (or anyone with like over 10 games of experience on this site):
How likely it is that mafia would try to "derail" a D1 lynch on their partner into a no-lynch by making a case on another partner of theirs? Basically do no-lynches happen, and if yes, how often, in IML games (D1)?

@outoforder, what was this referring to?

[BlackVoid]

Now it seems like several people are pulling the "I'm fine getting lynched" gambit. I don't know why Cass would be okay with getting lynched though. With all the focus on outoforder and Fitz, a mislynch outside that pool will only stagnate the game and we have the same situation tomorrow. I'm not against looking outside the duo but only if I think I'm lynching scum. From Cass's standpoint, her own lynch would be a guaranteed mislynch though so it doesn't make sense.

[BlackVoid]

Reading over HavingFitz's ISO in Mini 1843, the quality of his analysis is much, much better than here. He talks in extensive detail about how wagons formed and his conclusions from there. The case on outoforder here didn't resonate with me as much. The push on Hap D2 also wasn't particularly strong.

[BlackVoid]

I haven't read anything since my last post. I'm not sure what the vote count is but:

VOTE: hapa

I'd vote OoO but I do not feel I have had time to summarize my suspicions of him properly. We have a lot of time left in the day so if people want to wait I can promise Monday. Otherwise...(AtE alert! AtE alert!)

I feel I am going to be in defense mode for the entirety of my time left in this game so it might be better for town to just push through the lynch on me while there are mislynches to spare.

Whatever you all (town) decide works for me.

The bolded part seemed really genuine though. I also think the Aubrey kill points slightly towards not-Fitz since they spent the entirety of D1 mutually pushing each other. I'll have to look at the timeline again but I have a hard time seeing Fitz pass up on the chances to mislynch Rels/KidAmn instead of Hap. However, Fitz never at any point felt like he was pushing hard on his suspects or lobbying for votes.

D2 where Fitz and Hap wait for everyone to vote them before cross-voting each other is odd and I'm not sure what to make of it yet.

I also wonder what Hap's gameplan was to show up end of day one and bus Hawk when I was loudly calling out Fitz and Rels as Hawk's partners. He would have known that Fitz looks terrible from a Hawk lynch and that he would likely have to bus Fitz as well if it goes through. But if neither Fitz nor Rels are his partners, bussing makes sense because he gets two mislynches.

[BlackVoid]

But even now, you don't talk about a lot of things like the D1 wagons and people's stances on them in much detail. You don't seem very sure outoforder is scum considering you have backup suspects so I'd expect a more thorough analysis of them. You also weren't a major factor in getting Hap lynched D2, why? You had him as a scumread but there was no push to get him lynched and your vote was one of the last on his wagon.

[BlackVoid]

How do you miss that it was five to lynch anyway when you keep spreadsheets of votes and never miss a single vote?

[BlackVoid]

UNVOTE: Hapahauli
Shit i have to reconsider this.

What sparked this unvote? Hap's explanation in 176 didn't bring up any new information.

[BlackVoid]

Can you talk more about your reads other than outoforder? Specifically, your thoughts on Cass and Momo's slot as a whole as well as your updated read on Creature would be nice.

[BlackVoid]

I'll consider it if you talk about it a bit more.

[BlackVoid]

As Rels pointed out earlier, it doesn't seem like his activity level is indicative of alignment for him.

[BlackVoid]

I tried reading a couple of doomfeather's other games but didn't find anything I could use as a smoking gun either way. Did you find Doom's posting scummy?

[BlackVoid]

Later on he didn't do much so i revoted him and then the genuine-seeming-AtE and (on D2) the bus vote on Hawk threw me off.

Yeah, about the bus vote. Why do you think he bussed if Fitz is his partner? I was calling out Fitz as my #2 suspect and linked him with a Hawk scumflip. So, Hap would know that if he bussed Hawk, he'd have to bus Fitz as well.

Regarding the genuine-sounding Fitz ATE, I thought I saw him say similar things before but it seems I misread.

Spoiler: From Mini Normal 1843

Subject: Mini Normal 1843 - Endgame

If I am today's lynch I would just urge for Maria to be tomorrow'so lynch. I'm busy the next 2 hours but happy to answer any other questions or concerns.

Subject: Mini Normal 1843 - Endgame

@Cloud...you being upset in my situation is how you would react. I'm not you. This is a game...it's not LYLO...and you guys have a lot more invested in it then I do. I do not want to be lynched and I do not want to do a disservice to deceased town who put a lot of effort into this game before I replaced in but it's not my call. Scum are not going to like my cases on them (nor town if I have it wrong) so it's an uphill battle. If you guys think GM was especially scummy that's between you and her. I've read little to nothing GM has said because I know her alignment (town btw) and I cannot explain anything she did without making an assumptions. So why bother?

@BV...if you want my read on anything...any occurrence let me know. I can't speak for GM but I'm happy to give my opinion on anything else. If I do get through today I should have more time to actually read through the entire game over the weekend/during N4.

This is what he said regarding his lynch.

[BlackVoid]

Trying to figure out if you suggesting that you be lynched is consistent with your beliefs as town. I'm not sure. I'll wait for your content post with reads which will hopefully help.

[BlackVoid]

My problem this game is I'm stuck and no one's really doing anything. Hawk was easy to catch at the end because he opportunistically jumped onto Aubrey. Then it was rather obvious that Hap was scum because of how Hawk treated his wagon. Hap just made it easy by lurking and posting in a different game that he lurked to a win.

Outside of that, I don't know.

The biggest reason I suspect outoforder is his defense of Hap D2 and the Kop nightkill which I think he's most likely to make. But he also has some extremely non-partnerlike interactions with Hap at the beginning and end of D1 which I went into earlier.

With Fitz, his defense of Hawk towards the end of D1 is concerning but I'm still wondering why Hap would bus if he's partnered with Fitz. He'd have to know that Fitz would need to be bussed too. But then the way Hap gave up D2 seems like he wanted to be lynched over Fitz. If Fitz was town, I don't know if he'd put such an opportunistic L-1 vote that would turn the tide against him. My gut doesn't like the way Fitz pushed Hap. Hap's jump on Fitz after Aubrey voted him actually felt like a bus contrary to what Aubrey said. But I also thought the way Fitz pushed Hap based on Rels' and outoforder's reasons didn't make sense for a partner to do. I guess my reasons for townreading Fitz are the weakest.

Doomfeathers is the only reason to townread Momo. The newb-towntells I noticed were 1) Reading Fitz's meta to try to get a read on him, 2) Trying to break the setup, 3) Guessing the scumteam when he replaced out. On the other hand, we have the fact that he was on both the Kop and KidAmn wagons but not on Hap's. I'll actually have to look over to check what his reasons were.

Cassielle logically makes sense as scum because her interactions with both scum were really over-the-top. She defends Hawk all the way through and votes him at deadline despite voting for Kop making more sense at that point both because I, her biggest scumread was pushing Hawk, and because Hawk was a townread that'll actually contribute stuff. But it seems consistent with "lynch for information" stance so maybe she thought flipping Hawk green would give her the ammo to lynch me to following day? If that's the case it's actually a towntell.

So, that's four people I'm really not sure about and I'm trying to figure out who it could be.

Moving, on people I actually have townreads on, Creature pushed for Hap pretty consistently D1 and also took a hard stance to vote him over Fitz. KidAmn's reaction to Hap's case on him and tunnel are very unlikely to come from partners. I've written about their interactions with Hawk earlier so putting their interactions with both flipped scum together, I'm pretty sure they are town. Rels' progression on Hawk is actually quite good. He pushes him based on the contrived stuff Hawk posted about Rels and Hap. Hawk tried to be tying Rels and Hap together a lot. Rels' interaction with Hap was pretty good and it looked like Hap was bending over backwards to appease him similar to how he did with outoforder. He also pushed Hap D2 very early. The one thing that gave me pause was how he hesitated to vote Hawk D1 but I think it's outweighed by the massive evidence showing he's town.

So, I don't think it's Creature, KidAmn, or Rels. I believe it's one of the remaining four but I'm not sure who. We can't lynch all four so it's important to figure out who it actually is so I hope people actually continue posting analysis. I was pretty burnt out from posting in this game and re-analyzing the same thing twenty different ways. But we still have a week so hopefully we make progress. Anyone who disagrees with any of my reads, please explain why. Cass saying she'll vote whoever I want is actually the least helpful thing at this point.

[BlackVoid]

That's actually a really good case. The biggest thing holding me back was not outoforder's posts so much as how Hap interacted with outoforder. Do you think Hap's posts to outoforder fit better as partners than scum trying to get on a townie's good side?

[BlackVoid]

Yeah, I had forgotten how scummy some of outoforder's D2 posts have been. I've been thinking over all the possibilities and this is the only one that makes sense. I'll think it over for a few more hours but I'm probably going to vote there.

[BlackVoid]

Hey so we fearlynch outoforder today and we hope I don't die?

How are you getting the idea that outoforder is a fear lynch as in we lynch him because we're afraid of him? On balance, the evidence points to him as scum.

1. His interaction with Hawk was minimal and Hawk just happened to be a third scumread for him close to end of D1.
2. His absolute insistence that both of Hawk's partners wouldn't bus him and townreading Hap for the bus vote despite it looking like a bus vote.
3. Ignoring all the evidence that points to Hawk avoiding the Hap wagon and coming up with increasingly convoluted reasons to townread him.
4. The Kop nk which makes most sense from someone that wanted to shake up the gamestate. The last scum who was widely suspected did this in my last game.

Momo's last post doesn't make me feel any better about him but it's more likely outoforder is scum than doom. Fitz sticking with his Hap push even after Hap backed off of him feels town. After re-reading Cass's D1, I just have a hard time seeing scum make that much of a splash. If you really believe Momo is scum, then explain to me in-depth why. You just keep repeating that Momo's activity level makes him scum which isn't very convincing. But I'm listening to any other arguments that you might have.

[BlackVoid]

If there's a D4 and I'm not in it, just spend a lot of time gamesolving and don't quicklynch. Just having the thread go on for a while outs scum. I recently finished a game modded by Creature where the last scum outed himself the day before lylo. I'm 100% on outoforder but as sure as I could be.

VOTE: outoforder (L-1)

[BlackVoid]

Hey Momo, hammer please.

[BlackVoid]

Yeah, if he's town and I'm dead, lynch Fitz before Momo I guess.

[BlackVoid]

Good game town. Sorry outoforder. Should have lynched Fitz on D3. You were right! I think I got too caught up in lynching someone who was pushing a counterwagon to scum without first checking to see if the counterwagon was town. I should have stuck with my initial impression that Hap/you interacting early game was not scum to scum. Had the scumteam figured out as early as 820 but I'm sad I wasn't able to follow-through on that for a perfect win. But town as a whole wrecked a setup that had only 20% town winrate before this game. Creature was impressively accurate this game. Scum played well with Hap/Fitz distancing and making it look like only one of them was scum. I'd have lynched Fitz next just to be faithful to outoforder though so this game was pretty much wrapped up but I'm glad it ended tonight. I was a bit exhausted. Loved playing with the TL crew as well and I hope next time we meet Hap, that we're both town. Modding was top notch. Nice job Tenshii.

@Tenshii/scumteam, can we see the scum topic please?