Open 54 - Basic 12 Player (over) before 529

[Glork]

Actually, the claim wasnt that you could be certain, it was that I don't think you can ever make the claim that X is NOT Y's scum partner. And since you take Shanba not being Patricks scumbuddy and Andy not being crubs as a premise, your whole case is flawed from the start.

/disagree with this, also.

Now, granted, I agree with you that it's significantly weaker when the players in question are highly experienced/advanced, but there are definitely things that I read as definitively genuine.

You're going to be disappointed, then. I may have a fairly defeatist attitude, but this is not indicative of my alignment. What would I, as scum, have to be defeatist about right now? We're in triple lylo. I'm probably not going to be lynched today. Unless you believe it's because I'm scum with Crub? That would follow. But even then, I would still have a very good chance of winning as scum.

Bzzt.

First of all, re: "Unless you believe it's because I'm scum with Crub" made me laugh and cringe. I think I've stated no less than three times in the past two pages that I think both you and Crub are scum.

Now, you have every reason to be defeatest. The Cop is outed and has an innocent result (yours truly), with no counterclaims. That narrows the field of suspicion down significantly. If I happen to be the Doctor, it's all gravy for you. Kill me tonight, IH probably outs one more person, kill him tomorrow night. Pretty solid chance of mislynch in LyLo. However, if you believe that I am

not

the doc (75% chance, from the scumbaggo's perspectives), you're in trouble. Kill me and IH is guaranteed

two

more investigations. Poke elsewhere, and there are still two confirmed innocents tomorrow. Now, if we are not taking reads into account, your only viable play would be to kill me and hope that I am the Doctor. However, if you read me as Not-Doc, you're definitely in quite a pickle.


Now, regarding the rest of your post: I will concede that you did make a point way earlier today about the "inactivity towards end-of-day" thing, but two things:
1) An assload of discussion has happened since then, and you have been distinctly lacking in analysis of said discussion.
2) You yourself are now becoming one of those "inactives" that you griped about earlier. When I asked for the last set of prods, I decided that I'd look to see who posted and then disappeared for 72 hours. You were the only such person. Like I said, definite minus points.

[Glork]

Shea: I honestly think that I would have hit upon the exact same things that BooKie did, because like I said, that's how I felt when I read the post.

[Thestatusquo]

*sigh* Ok. Some day I will get people to believe this tell...I've gotten it in another ongoing game, and no one wants to lynch because of there either. I wonder why.

[Glork]

Meh. DWA/Strawmanning can get really touchy in general. I know that as a player, regardless of alignment, I tend to focus on points where I know I have more ground. Sometimes I make a concession on other points, and sometimes I ignore them. Maybe I'm the exception to the rule, but I'm just not convinced that it's a reliable enough "tell."

[Thestatusquo]

Well, I think you're giving your self too little credit glork, as I've seen you admit to being wrong many times in mafia games, when the arguments bear out that you're wrong. The point is would you really go for a throw away argument that was meaningless over two on point arguments if you were town? I don;t think so. I know I wouldn't, because if they were serious objections to my position, I would look at them, and try to analyze whether or not they should change my mind, and if I decided they didn't, I would post that.

[Shanba]

Bzzt.

First of all, re: "Unless you believe it's because I'm scum with Crub" made me laugh and cringe. I think I've stated no less than three times in the past two pages that I think both you and Crub are scum.

Now, you have every reason to be defeatest. The Cop is outed and has an innocent result (yours truly), with no counterclaims. That narrows the field of suspicion down significantly. If I happen to be the Doctor, it's all gravy for you. Kill me tonight, IH probably outs one more person, kill him tomorrow night. Pretty solid chance of mislynch in LyLo. However, if you believe that I am not the doc (75% chance, from the scumbaggo's perspectives), you're in trouble. Kill me and IH is guaranteed two more investigations. Poke elsewhere, and there are still two confirmed innocents tomorrow. Now, if we are not taking reads into account, your only viable play would be to kill me and hope that I am the Doctor. However, if you read me as Not-Doc, you're definitely in quite a pickle.

It would appear that I made my point badly.

What I was trying to say is that the defeatism that all your points characterised were not inherently scummy. Yes, if you were entirely correct, then you would be entirely correct. But that's kind of circular. To complete my point - as town, I have every reason to be defeatist. My scumdar has been off all game, I'm under eventual threat of lynch in a lylo situation and I can't seem to get my head around what's happening.

Now, regarding the rest of your post: I will concede that you did make a point way earlier today about the "inactivity towards end-of-day" thing, but two things:
1) An assload of discussion has happened since then, and you have been distinctly lacking in analysis of said discussion.

Bollocks. We've had everyone agreeing that Crub is probably not scum with Andy and we've had tsq and bookitty attacking each other (which I did comment on) and the rest has just been jockeying around saying "I think it's x, y and z" "Yeah? Well I think it's v, y and z". That sort of discussion does not leave a whole lot to comment on.

2) You yourself are now becoming one of those "inactives" that you griped about earlier. When I asked for the last set of prods, I decided that I'd look to see who posted and then disappeared for 72 hours. You were the only such person. Like I said, definite minus points.

This point was specifically referring to deadline periods, where lack of posts could force a premature end to the day.

[Ether]

2 Crub (IH, Glork)
1 Bookitty (Thestatusquo)
1 Patrick (Crub)

4 Unvote (Andycyca, Bookitty, Patrick, Shanba)

8 alive; 5 to lynch.

[Glork]

By the way, team, our grace period ends on Sunday, I think, and Monday we are under "Half must post or else."

TSQ, no more dicking around. Go read the thread and produce more results.

Everyone else: Be prepared to put your votes where your mouths are. There is entirely too much dilly-dallying and people simply making "I think X is scum" comments.

[Bookitty]

If there were one thing that bothered me about BooKitty, it's that I don't feel she's done enough to analyze and critique Patrick, Shanba, Crub, and Andy on individual levels. She seems content to go after the "surfire" thing, to save the work for later, but that could be a coverup to avoid making a decision regarding potential scumbuddies. Her argument, from her perspective, makes sense, but it is nothing more than a process-of-elimination argument.

That said, I have one more excercise for BooKie to do. Hypothetical situation:
Suppose one of Andy/Crub were lynched today as scum, and the other were nightkilled. Suppose tomorrow, one of Shanba/Patrick were scum, and the other was nightkilled. Convince IH and myself that you are protown and that TSQ is scum.

Sorry for this being so late, but I have had consistent problems with the site going down over and over. In response to the first part of this, I'd be happy to provide quotes to support my reasoning on any of these (I think I mostly have) if you think my arguments need more evidence backing them.

As for your second request:

Looking at our posts throughout the game, I think that the difference is pretty clear. I have provided reasoning behind my decisions, and I have tried to make my logical process as transparent as possible for the town. In contrast, Sikario provided little if any content, and TSQ had not even read the thread (and announced this fact) three days before LYLO deadline. This lack of curiosity seems very incompatible with pro-town behaviour, and in fact I don't believe he's demonstrated much. He's attacked the arguments of others when they directly impacted him, but he hasn't seemed to care about helping the town nearly so much as helping himself. In contrast, I've provided content and haven't lurked or even when I was under no pressure at all.

I think a quick reread of our respective posts will make this very obvious. I've made a case against Sikario/TSQ, and I think the points are valid, but the most telling point is that TSQ apparently only mustered enough interest to defend himself when he was attacked (not even having read the thread) and I've contributed my opinions in support of the town when under no suspicion at all.

[Bookitty]

Everyone else: Be prepared to put your votes where your mouths are. There is entirely too much dilly-dallying and people simply making "I think X is scum" comments.

Fair enough. I'm most convinced TSQ is scum, second most convinced Crub is (and it's pretty close, really). Really didn't like Shanba's last posts. Really don't like that Patrick is being so quiet, either. Still, I'll go with my top suspicion for now.

vote TheStatusQuo

[Thestatusquo]

Hi. We all saw that coming.

[Patrick]

Ok, I'm back, and alot has been posted while I was away. Bookitty, I find it unreasonable that you're accusing me of being too quiet, given that I posted pretty much everywhere that I'd be without access for 3 days. And no, it wasn't much fun.

Shanba's early vote and then unvote of Andy "Reasonably happy with Andy's response." Might be distancing. But then the argument with Andy in which Andy accused Shanba of pretending to distance from Patrick...Andy said this: "Also, I never said you and patrick are distancing, I commented that you might be trying to frame him on a "distancing" scene." Which seems to indicate an assumption that Patrick is town (or at least trying to give the appearance thereof). So Shanba and Andy might be scumbuddies, but Patrick and Andy are far more likely.

The first part makes sense to me, but I don't see how Andy possibly assuming that I'm town makes us more likely to be scumbuddies. It seems like the opposite conclusion to the one you've drawn here makes sense. How did you work this out?

I don't think Crub's phrasing when referring to the [scene to be added later] means anything, particularly. When he used the word "failed" I got the impression he was referring to the deadline rather than any result of a possible lynch.

I think that Crub's third vote for Andy makes them less likely scumbuddies than before, though I'm not as comfortable about it as some appear to be. I could see a shoddy bus attempt given the pressure Andy was under at the time (two confirmed town voting him, with most other players having him in their top 3 or higher). Not interested in lynching Andy today though after that.

This constant CPU error is really starting to piss me off.

The whole DWA debate... meh. I've heard the DWA thing brought up before, and have even read that game in which Seol used it, but I've never believed in it as a tell. I know I tend to jump heavily on weak points against me regardless of alignment. I mean, I'm prepared to believe TSQ believes in the DWA argument, but I simply can't agree with him here. I don't him particularly scummy as a result either though. I'm far more convinced in Crub/Shanba being scum and I think both of their lethargic attitudes are more indicative of being scum than town. I'm close to voting but I want to see the results of TSQ's read first.

[Bookitty]

Ok, I'm back, and alot has been posted while I was away. Bookitty, I find it unreasonable that you're accusing me of being too quiet, given that I posted pretty much everywhere that I'd be without access for 3 days. And no, it wasn't much fun.

My apologies. I'd seen you posting elsewhere (albeit briefly) and I assumed you were back. If that's not the case, then I still feel you were quiet, but I think it's not suspicious.

The first part makes sense to me, but I don't see how Andy possibly assuming that I'm town makes us more likely to be scumbuddies. It seems like the opposite conclusion to the one you've drawn here makes sense. How did you work this out?

You're confusing two separate issues, likely because I was unclear in that post. Andy's quoted comments there make it more likely he's Shanba's scumbuddy, not yours. But he is in general far more linked to you (and if the site stays stable for more than a couple of minutes, I can give examples of that if you need them) and THAT is what the latter part referred to. I was pointing out that both things seemed pretty possible. I don't recall if I'd said before, but I had sort of been assuming that Andy wasn't linked with Shanba in any meaningful way. On a reread, I saw that and felt it was noteworthy enough to mention, because I had been wrong.

[Shanba]

Vote: Crub

This was tough, but I think he's more likely scum than Patrick/TSQ.

[Thestatusquo]

If we're not going to get Bookitty, we can at least get her scumbuddy shanba.

VOTE: SHANBA

[Glork]

Do you believe Crub to be innocent then, Shea?

[Thestatusquo]

Iunno.

[Glork]

Well, considering BooKitty is not currently voting for Crub (and hasn't posted since yesterday, meaning she almost certainly hasn't seen him at Lynch-1), you believe her to be scum, and we are in LyLo barring a miracle-protect from the Doc, you really ought to figure out what you think, Shea. There should be some sense of urgency if you believe that the chances of CrubTown are remotely significant.

[Glork]

EBWOP: Oh, fuck, I can't count. He's at L-2. Yeah, that would require both BooKie and Patrick to be scum for the virtual auto-loss. Not out of the question, but meh. Crub is scummier than BooKie by a pretty good margin.

[Bookitty]

@Shanba:

Earlier you said:

Also sticking out to me is his poking of Crub without ever really attacking him. There's some of this from Crub to Andy too, though I note that Crub also lists Andy as getting town points. I'm not sure how much guts Crub has as scum, but the link is stronger Andy<-Crub than Crub<-Andy.

Individually, Andy reads somewhat scummy, Crub neutral and Patrick scummy. So I'm most convinced of Patrick, but Andy is the better link between the two. Hrm.

What changed your mind on Crub?

[Crub]

Does andy not count Glork?

I'm guessing 2 out of Kitty, Patrick, Andy have to be scum.

Shanba's about face with his opinion of me, isn't that surprising.

[Shanba]

Crub's vote on Andy. That made it very unlikely than Andy was scum. If Andy isn't scum, then the whole Patrick-Andy connection is gone, which makes Patrick less likely scum. I still think he is individually scummy, but Crub's vote also reads scummy.

[Patrick]

Shea, what's tthe status of the reread?

[Bookitty]

@Patrick:

A "reread" implies that TSQ has read the thread in the first place. As of two days ago, he stated he had not read the thread the first time. As in, at all. Which is a significant part of my reasons for voting him. This lack of curiosity and helpfulness during LYLO seems scummier to me even than what Crub has done. I was not aware that he had agreed to read the thread, but I might have missed that.

[Andycyca]

Still with (local) network problems, I'll post tonight