Mini Normal 1897: Chocolate Mafia - Game Over

[Something_Smart]

Hey guys I'm a miller

VOTE: aronagrundy

[Something_Smart]

Why not believe it?

[Something_Smart]

they literally just answered that

[Something_Smart]

66 has some pretty serious gaps in its logic; he left out at least one thing that's relevant.

let's see where this goes

VOTE: rb

[Something_Smart]

Liking ThinkBig for town.

I want Eddie to elaborate on why he doesn't believe my claim.

[Something_Smart]

Right now 2F and Boonskiies are my top town reads.

TB you are literally reading my mind rn.

Also Transcend should fullclaim before the end of the day.

[Something_Smart]

You've also seen it when it wasn't legit-- remember Dunnstral in Space Mafia?

[Something_Smart]

I claimed miller eager, no takebacks, what are you getting at?

I lean town on Eddie Cane as well.

how

[Something_Smart]

And...?

[Something_Smart]

And you think that's impossible?

[Something_Smart]

Nah I don't believe miller

So you don't believe miller because you don't think cop and watcher would both be in the setup?

Or you don't believe it for some other reason?

Also there isn't a mafia watcher unless Eager is scum, and then that's a super ballsy claim.

[Something_Smart]

Mafia watcher and town backup watcher is super swingy depending on which of them dies first.

So scum watcher exists only if the backup watcher is also scum (and I believe eager's claim).

Also eager can you answer my question

[Something_Smart]

P much all my thoughts are on the table already as far as why I don't believe the claim ss

Miller doesn't imply full cop, and backup watcher doesn't imply full watcher. (Not to mention that given what we've seen so far I could see BV putting in a miller without a cop)

So I don't see why the two couldn't coexist. Especially since Transcend is probably full of crap.

has anyone been in a game with a miller without a cop? like just to fuck with the setup spec?

i agree that cop, watcher AND backup watcher is pretty ridiculous

yes I have, it was a theme game but it was mostly normal in the mechanics.

also, if a scum watcher flips we lynch eager because I still can't see scum watcher and town backup watcher being approved for balance.

[Something_Smart]

If there's a scum watcher, why would scum!eager claim backup watcher?

If he actually is one

[Something_Smart]

And he almost definitely is a backup watcher, of one alignment or the other

[Something_Smart]

UNVOTE:

[Something_Smart]

Because I don't see miller with watcher and backup watcher

we've been over this before

[Something_Smart]

I think that translates to "I don't like to be right."

[Something_Smart]

Also that was beetlejuicey

I want a straight answer from you and I'm not getting one.

Like, seriously. I'm pointing out a flaw in your reasoning and your response is "I'm not easily swayed"? It actually makes me feel like you're not interested in finding out the truth.

[Something_Smart]

your reasoning clearly relies on the assumption that miller + backup watcher implies full cop + full watcher when it doesn't.

[Something_Smart]

And if your argument is that any sort of cop combined with any sort of watcher and a backup watcher is too overpowered (without having any clue what the scum power is) then I don't know what to say to you.

[Something_Smart]

I'm not trying to paint you as scum, I just have a hard time seeing your reasoning as coming from town.

[Something_Smart]

I'm not trying to paint you as scum, I just have a hard time seeing your reasoning as coming from town.

Why? Because you disagree?

This was to eager, and obviously I disagree with his reasoning. I could see backup watcher and miller together with a limited watcher and/or a limited cop, or possibly a watcher and no cop at all (but a rolecop or another town role that could interact with me).

I mean it's not invalid as a backup watcher to disbelieve a miller claim in a 10v3 normal.

It's not invalid to disbelieve it, no. But even if you don't believe the claim, you don't lynch it D1 unless you REALLY don't believe it, and your reasoning for that is faulty (and intentionally obstinate, might I add).

[Something_Smart]

I mean it's not invalid as a backup watcher to disbelieve a miller claim in a 10v3 normal.

It's not invalid to disbelieve it, no. But even if you don't believe the claim, you don't lynch it D1 unless you REALLY don't believe it, and your reasoning for that is faulty (and intentionally obstinate, might I add).

Why don't you lynch it D1 exactly? What is the utility in keeping it alive even if you disbelieve it?

Because you might be wrong

[Something_Smart]

what are the statistics on a d1 policy lynch on town?

[Something_Smart]

once again TB says exactly what I was thinking

[Something_Smart]

Can I pick todays lynch?

No

[Something_Smart]

what

[Something_Smart]

@Boon

I mean it's not invalid as a backup watcher to disbelieve a miller claim in a 10v3 normal.

It's not invalid to disbelieve it, no. But even if you don't believe the claim, you don't lynch it D1 unless you REALLY don't believe it, and your reasoning for that is faulty (and intentionally obstinate, might I add).

[Something_Smart]

ugh. rb/transcend are both scum. Let's just lynch one of them. As the miller you should be taking a side on something. You are staying unvoted yet you are commonly posting.

Way way way too soon for that.

[Something_Smart]

I just want to lynch SS today but I can think of some good reasons to let him live to d2

So I'm just getting antsy so see what all happens D2

why lynch somebody who hasn't posted, rather than somebody whose posting has been unimpressive?

[Something_Smart]

Or NL, for that matter, if you're so interested in night actions

[Something_Smart]

I swear BV is just sitting there at his computer, votecount ready, spamming F5.

[Something_Smart]

Finally something we agree on.

[Something_Smart]

Just the sheer probability of there being all of those particular roles included together is unlikely

If you want to talk about likelihood, I don't think a backup watcher has ever been included in a Mini Normal before.

[Something_Smart]

I'd rather pretend the claim never happened and judge him based how he actually plays. If he looks like scum, I'll lynch him. If he doesn't, I won't.

tbh this is how we should be treating SS.

We should not ever advocate lynching him simply because he claimed miller.

THANK YOU SOMEBODY GETS IT

VOTE: Eddie Cane

[Something_Smart]

They're contributing, have their try-hard pants on, and are the driving force behind the game.

This does not equal town.

[Something_Smart]

hapa's reasoning is hella weak.

that said, I'd like to see more eddie votes

[Something_Smart]

hapa's reasoning is hella weak.

that said, I'd like to see more eddie votes

Hapa's reason to SR Eddie is weak yet you want to see more Eddie votes?

Precisely.

They're contributing, have their try-hard pants on, and are the driving force behind the game.

This does not equal town.

It does not guarantee town, but given the dynamics of the game so far and other traits in their filter (emotional, posting the first thing that comes to their mind, etc), I'm pretty sure it's town.

Who's more likely to be mafia? The two idiots screaming at each other in thread, or the guys in the background letting it happen?

Some of both...

[Something_Smart]

They're contributing, have their try-hard pants on, and are the driving force behind the game.

This does not equal town.

It does not guarantee town, but given the dynamics of the game so far and other traits in their filter (emotional, posting the first thing that comes to their mind, etc), I'm pretty sure it's town.

Who's more likely to be mafia? The two idiots screaming at each other in thread, or the guys in the background letting it happen?

Some of both...

That's a false dichotomy btw

[Something_Smart]

How is it false? It's what I see happen repeatedly in games on this site. People go after the loud, controversial targets for lynches, and mafia lets town eat itself alive.

It implies that the answer can't be both. With the amount of idiots screaming at each other this game has had, one of them is almost certainly scum. Though I am in agreement that the right place to look for scum right now is in the people in the background.

Why are you even attacking my reasoning if you are suspicious of EddieCane as well? To be voting him in this spot, you should realize that most of what I'm saying is valid.

Why are those two things inconsistent? I think Eddie is scum, but not for the reasons you listed.

[Something_Smart]

How is it false? It's what I see happen repeatedly in games on this site. People go after the loud, controversial targets for lynches, and mafia lets town eat itself alive.

It implies that the answer can't be both. With the amount of idiots screaming at each other this game has had, one of them is almost certainly scum. Though I am in agreement that the right place to look for scum right now is in the people in the background.

You're making the same fallacy. Why can't a bunch of idiots screaming at each other be all town? Anyway, I'm more interested in below...

More so than focusing on one fight, I'm thinking of the people who have been very involved in the discussion (some of them were debatably not screaming but they've still been in the spotlight): <rb, ThinkBig, TwoFace, Boonskiies, eagerSnake, Transcend, me>. And I think that among them, tabling PR discussion removes eager and Transcend (and me) and so statistically there's probably scum in the other four. I never said they can't be all town, but I think that's just unlikely.

Anyway it's moot for now, since we shouldn't be lynching any of those players today anyway.

Why are you even attacking my reasoning if you are suspicious of EddieCane as well? To be voting him in this spot, you should realize that most of what I'm saying is valid.

Why are those two things inconsistent? I think Eddie is scum, but not for the reasons you listed.

What are your reasons?

Useless setup discussion, pointless posts like 511 and 528 that strike me as him trying to appear carefree except they're just awkward.

And I just get pings from a lot of what he is doing, like defending Transcend and being unable to explain his reads.

[Something_Smart]

Useless setup discussion, pointless posts like 511 and 528 that strike me as him trying to appear carefree except they're just awkward.

And I just get pings from a lot of what he is doing, like defending Transcend and being unable to explain his reads.

I mean that's basically what I'm getting at.

Putting a ton of effort into useless town-reads and setup speculation as opposed to pushing scumreads and finding mafia.

Yeah but I don't scumread him because I disagree with his reads (and for the record, that's something scum do more often than town in my experience).

[Something_Smart]

Anyway I'm still not sure how I feel about hapa but I want to see how Eddie reacts to pressure so I reiterate:

More Eddie votes please.

[Something_Smart]

No.

I think one or two bad town reads are individually excusable. All of them combined point to something mafia-motivated.

Sounds like you disagree with more than two.

[Something_Smart]

also if im lol hammered vig/lynch the hammered

Dude you're at L-5

Also TwoFace do you think Transcend seriously meant to CC miller (and then changed his mind)? After claiming that his role was both confirmable and investigative?

[Something_Smart]

Also TwoFace do you think Transcend seriously meant to CC miller (and then changed his mind)? After claiming that his role was both confirmable and investigative?

so your turn now.

what do you make of it?

why if he said he is both confirmable and investigative do you think he said he was miller in an attempt to discredit you and your claim?

he said it was a wording error, and I believe that he meant to say "he cannot be miller given that I'm my role".

[Something_Smart]

I have no idea.

[Something_Smart]

And given the state of the setup spec this game there's no way he could "know" that anyway...

Damn maybe he was actually trying to CC me.

[Something_Smart]

Still don't think it's right to lynch him D1 though

[Something_Smart]

Ugh Transcend can you just fullclaim please.

Like it's impossible for you to have a role that literally can't coexist with mine...

[Something_Smart]

eager and SS, can you both confirm that you'll hammer Transcend if he doesn't full-claim?

Definitely

[Something_Smart]

Transcend claims in his next post or I'm hammering. No more stalling.

[Something_Smart]

this game is confirmed 10:3, no 3rd parties
(what made you think he might be 3rd party anyway?)

[Something_Smart]

I don't even want to lynch him yet; I just want him to claim like he should have done a long time ago.

[Something_Smart]

And if someone self hammers and prays the scum team will win, I have no qualms with their lynch or their death

This. That lynch was nobody's fault but Transcend's.

Can I get a second opinion on Boonskiies?

He's town

[Something_Smart]

It happens.

[Something_Smart]

Hey sorry guys, I had an important thing that's taken up my whole weekend so far. Phone posting now; will catch up and post for real tonight.

[Something_Smart]

as opposed to that very not-real post

Yes, smartass. I hadn't read the last 10 pages when I posted that. Now I have. Hence, real post.

So the claims right now are:
ThinkBig - VT
Eddie Cane - 1-shot vig
Boonskiies - odd-night cop (also claimed the existence of a neighborizer)
Darkshadow64540 - ???
hapahauli - ???
Something_Smart - miller
eagerSnake - backup watcher
horrordude0215 - ???
rb - VT
aronagrundy - ???

agree that this should be finished as soon as possible. however, disagree that protectives should claim vt. It's massclaim, and if we're intending to do setup spec (which we really need to be given the claims thus far), we need to know all the claims to get an idea of the full setup. otherwise what we'll end up doing is terrible setup spec and that never works out well for town, period.

anyway, I'm surprisingly starting to lean more town on rb. (this is surprising myself because I figured after day 1 that he'd be the type of person I'd scumread regardless of alignment.)
and TB is still town, and not touching Eddie and Boon, and Dark is town by Boon's report. (not even going to think about the scenario where scum-boon inno's his buddy.) So my lynchpool is something like:
<hapahauli, aronagrundy, eagerSnake, horrordude0215> in preference order.

because I'm amazed hapa hasn't gotten more attention than he has, given that he has now made two pushes on players proven to be town (not counting transcend which doesn't exactly help his case but I won't hold it against him). I already explained why I didn't like the Eddie push, and I would hate his Darkshadow push even if Darkshadow weren't conftown.
He attacked Darkshadow for having the worst D1 vote (a vote which was basically RVS that he just happened to keep), also considering that hapa himself voted Transcend to L-1 after Transcend claimed friendly neighbor.
And then this post:

I wanna lynch arona tbh

Eh. I understand why she looks bad, but I think Darkshadow looks worse. Aarona doesn't look like she's trying to blend in, and there's some stuff that reads genuine in her filter. I also really don't like Darkshadow's push on that slot.

is weak and forced and IMO points to a hapa/arona team.

not gonna vote until claims are done, but this is where I would be voting. there's more to it than what I posted, but it's just gut I hate some of his posts too, and hard to explain.

also, pretty much all of the meta that was used in the last 10 pages (if not all the meta used all game) has been trash.

also also, this post made me laugh:

A man came to my door knocking.. he wanted me to share my wisdom

I didn't feel like sharing yet and told him so

But yet, he continued to knock on my door. And went around the town spreading rumors of me because I would not share my wisdom. Every few hours he would come back and knock on my door.

So of course, I got tired of the knocking and the rumors and answered the door

even though it didn't really explain what eager was doing that much, and it certainly didn't explain how it had town motivation.

also also also,

@BlackVoid I thought your dark chocolate troll was really clever, and I'm sorry everyone just ignored it if I had been around, I would have commented on it

[Something_Smart]

the first 4?

you must be tired lol

[Something_Smart]

that doesn't imply that setup spec can't be towny or beneficial to town, it just means that people who hide behind setup spec in lieu of discussion and reads (IIoA) are more likely to be scum.

[Something_Smart]

The miller claim makes a lot of sense from the claims. I think horrordude is probably a scum neighbor based. If he is town, then this set up is ridiculously town sided.

No watcher has claimed and thus snake maybe just a named townie.

or snake is a scum watcher. which would make sense in the setup as they could watch their partners to catch the vig or the cop. And also @TB if you think horrordude is a scum neighborizer, why wouldn't he just kill Boon since he obviously picked up on the crumbs?

VOTE: hapahauli this is still scum. 1303 reads very much like scum generating BS reason for reads. Writing off the emotional players on the Transcend wagon as town, then "taking tunnel vision goggles off", which is not really how tunneling works-- you can't just decide to stop tunneling, and his admission of being wrong on Dark reads as a "drat, now I can't mislynch them" more than anything.

He's also accusing me for being reluctant to provide reasons to vote Eddie, which is false, because nobody asked for them. (I gave a summary in 579 and then the Transcend crap got started and it was dropped.) And I'm scum trying to shit on other people's contributions because I disliked one case on one player (yet, I was still pushing the player).

[Something_Smart]

@horror -please quote the specific things you said in the pt that boon is town reading. you can quote things YOU say in the pt, just not what OTHER people say.

pretty sure you can't quote anything from a pt. but you can paraphrase.

[Something_Smart]

So you fakeclaimed to try to get me lynched?

[Something_Smart]

What was the point of giving intent?

[Something_Smart]

1) You were reluctant to give reasons for Eddie. You only elaborated about them in #579

when Eddie asked for them

, and not of your own volition.

Playstyle. I tend to get feelings as I read but forget the concrete reasons, and so it's hard for me to give in-depth reasons for my reads. I'm not going to do it unless somebody really wants me to (and I care about them wanting me to). So I was reluctant to make a wallpost outlining a giant case as you did, but that's not the only way to push a scumread... (also, I was specifically withholding reasons because I wanted to see how Eddie reacted to pressure.)

2) A lot of the stuff you're accusing me of being scummy for, you've done yourself (or even worse in most cases). You think I'm scummy because I've pushed cases on two townies. Not only is being wrong non-alignment indiciative, but you very clearly have sympathy for my viewpoints in your filter, given that you were pushing Eddie, and:

And if someone self hammers and prays the scum team will win, I have no qualms with their lynch or their death

This. That lynch was nobody's fault but Transcend's.

Can I get a second opinion on Boonskiies?

He's town

... so it looks a lot like you're blaming the lynch on Transcend when it's convenient for you (pushing me as a scumread) rather that actually thinking that.

A fair point, but the thing I didn't like about your Eddie and Dark pushes were that they seemed like you were going after an easy target-- particularly on Dark. And what makes you think I have sympathy for your viewpoint? I actually thought you might have been bussing Eddie there.
And what makes you think that I don't believe that Transcend's lynch was his own fault? Maybe his wagon wasn't his own fault, but if he hadn't pulled the antics he did he probably wouldn't have been lynched.

What was the point of giving intent?

To make him claim? As with Mr. Horror above, if you read anything involving the context of this post, it should be stupidly clear what the purpose of my intent to hammer was.

I already had intent on him for the same reason though...

[Something_Smart]

except Transcend, lmao

[Something_Smart]

Hap is like so obv town and really don't get the votes on him. I'll happily eat my hat if he flips scum.

you said you'd explain this a while ago, but you never did

[Something_Smart]

hapa you realize I had MULTIPLE chances to hammer Transcend and chose not to, right

[Something_Smart]

because he'd be confirmed town and he'd have confirmed a townie...?

[Something_Smart]

@ the people who said my content was too low: if you want more content from me, engage me. I have a vote and am using it and am explaining my thoughts as they come to me. if you want more that's on you

[Something_Smart]

I've seen scum claim friendly neighbor before.

and re: the wagon, I think we should lynch scum. don't care who was on/off; that stuff is easily manipulated and the fact that Transcend self hammered makes it even less useful

[Something_Smart]

One of horror/hapa are scum, then arona+eager imo. We lynch from those 4.

I am in a similar place but I don't feel super confident about you

I've seen scum claim friendly neighbor before.

and re: the wagon, I think we should lynch scum. don't care who was on/off; that stuff is easily manipulated and the fact that Transcend self hammered makes it even less useful

Have you seen them claim 1-shot Weak Friendly Neighbour though?

It's a very different claim because there's very low risk to letting that live as town.

no, but it's not that different (aside from being more specific)? either way you have to play it off like you were blocked.

[Something_Smart]

Anyway moving on from transcend because it's over. Do we agree on lynch pool of:

Hapa, horror, arona, eager$nake?

For now. I don't want horror or eager lynched today either, so today it's hapa or arona. Arona really needs to, like, post.

And TB you STILL haven't explained why you townread hapa so heavily.

[Something_Smart]

Pedit: SS do you think TB can be scum here?

He CAN... but if he is then major props to him. I really doubt it, and I think at this point in the game I have to just pick out who I trust the most and drop the paranoia because if I don't I'll never get anything done.

[Something_Smart]

Now that I think about there's probably a decent chance that rb is scum because lynching <hapa, arona, eager, horror> is too easy and it's never that easy. Or Boon is scum pulling some insane gambit UGH

[Something_Smart]

also I just realized the hapa wagon like completely died

[Something_Smart]

He already claimed VT

but there is no reason to lynch right now this wagon is shit even if arona is scum it's mostly a fucking bus and u idiots will likely townclear the bussers like the noobs you have proven yourself to be

if he's scum he's absolutely being bussed. hapahauli is probably the busser; he's pushing arona due to PoE and due to association with me (probably because he plans to try to lynch me next after arona flips scum)
not to mention that his content all game has been pretty bad

and tbh rb looks like a town counterwagon to a scum wagon which doesn't look good for you either eager

[Something_Smart]

I really don't think eager is scum. Scum just doesn't claim backup watcher/watcher with 0 votes on him.

but remember why he did it.

[Something_Smart]

exactly, why would I bus an absentee partner for a tiny amount of towncred when they could bus me for fuckhueg towncred, because they thought I was scum on day1 as well.

this question has a really obvious answer.

[Something_Smart]

Do you actually think I might be bussing hapa?

[Something_Smart]

Answer the question then.

[Something_Smart]

Do you actually think I might be bussing hapa?

...yes?

How? Hapa was getting no pressure before I voted him... (Not to mention our interactions regarding Eddie yesterday, which would be ridiculous for scum to fake)

[Something_Smart]

Do you actually think I might be bussing hapa?

...yes?

How? Hapa was getting no pressure before I voted him... (Not to mention our interactions regarding Eddie yesterday, which would be ridiculous for scum to fake)

Pretty sure this is wrong, but not entirely sure? Thought horror and maybe someone else voted hap before you, so I don't know why that was said.

no, I was first, go back and look. 1274 and 1309. I expressed intent to vote hapa before horror even came back from the weekend.

Do you actually think I might be bussing hapa?

We've already layed down that someone is probably bussing. Why wouldn't you? Why would you be special about this? I don't get this. Maybe I shouldn't auto believe the Miller claim just because of my role...

Because of what I just proved above, and because of my interactions with hapa regarding the Eddie wagon. And yeah of course you shouldn't auto believe the miller claim but the evidence is overwhelmingly in favor of it being true.

[Something_Smart]

No but I was the first person to pressure you today.

[Something_Smart]

I already said I was talking about today.

Because my point is that some people were throwing around your name on D1 and then they totally dropped it today.

Also, how would you feel about an arona hammer? (Not saying I'm gonna do it I just want to know)

[Something_Smart]

Sorry, Boon, didn't get that. How would you feel about it?

[Something_Smart]

I was joking lol

[Something_Smart]

The way I see it the case is PoE, combined with arona's unimpressive early-game play and subsequent disappearance, combined with his lacking recent posts (and I don't like the progression from 1651-1653), and that he and hapa are probably bussing each other.

[Something_Smart]

PoE is not a scum case unless you have a good town case for everyone else which you don't

PoE is the starting point. I have town cases for Boon, Eddie, Dark and TB which leaves a pool of 5 for 3 scum, giving arona a baseline 60% chance of being scum, before you even consider the other things.

[Something_Smart]

If he flips scum then we are 1/3 of the way toward achieving our wincon.

[Something_Smart]

Don't know why I'm being so hesitant about this tbh. Pretty confident that he's scum, and one partner is definitely in <eager, hapa> if not both.

He really hasn't put much effort into defending or gamesolving at all either.

VOTE: aronagrundy

Really hoping he doesn't flip town but even if he does I don't think the game is as screwed as eager is making it out to be. (Though if he's town then eager is probably scum anyway)

[Something_Smart]

you seem really convinced I'm dumb town as opposed to scum...

also I didn't like how hapa showed up to antagonize me and then disappeared as soon as I mentioned hammering arona

[Something_Smart]

if he's town eager is scum for defending him

if he's scum eager is scum for defending him

FFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFF YOU I"M FUCKING TOWN

I didn't say you were scum FOR defending him if he's town.

[Something_Smart]

I don't believe eager at all.

Right now I'm at eager + horror and one out of <ThinkBig, rb>. Based on how towny ThinkBig has been all game I want to say it's rb but I actually like rb's content today way more than ThinkBig's and I'm afraid that I locked myself into a ThinkBig townread based on his good early play. Will have to ISO there. But I got bad feels about his grandstanding at the beginning of the day, his somewhat inconsistency over how much he trust eager (combined with the fact that he DOES trust eager), and his reaction to rb voting him.

But anyway I've been thinking about the setups and I don't think I can see a world where eager and Boon are both town. And I really think Boon is town so... at this point I'm feeling that eager's the best lynch.

[Something_Smart]

Ok, I'm convinced. Boon/Dark scumteam would blow me away, and it doesn't seem like either of them is going to unvote anytime soon.

VOTE: eagerSnake

[Something_Smart]

GG and thanks for modding BV.

Miller gambit was probably a bad idea in hindsight, given that we might been screwed if we hadn't had so much more cohesion than the town did. But hey it was fun and mafia is a game so YOLO and the WIFOM our claims made was great. Also, I just realized that all 3 town PR's either lied about or were dodgy about their roles (as was Dark who wasn't even a PR), whereas the 3 fakeclaiming scum just claimed outright and stuck to it.

And I am happy that despite all that dodginess, we pretty much figured everything out anyway. (Unfortunately, although we suspected Eddie had a second shot, we couldn't really do anything about it, except make sure that the person he wanted dead before LYLO didn't get lynched )

Anyway it was fun playing with you guys (most of the time, some of you do need to chill out a little though ).