Newbie 1779 | Spring | Endgame

ThinkBig · Post Post #1475 (ISO) » Mon Apr 03, 2017 7:34 am

UNVOTE:

Icy · Post Post #1476 (ISO) » Mon Apr 03, 2017 7:54 am

In post 1474, ChrisOrmie wrote:
Icy wrote:
In post 1466, DogWatch wrote:Icy, are you saying you're 80% on Chris being scum?
Yes
Interesting. You said you've been fairly sure I was town all of yesterday, why the switch?

For me sense the end of day one it has been Alisae, or Mastina. I agree with you on not understanding Mastinas play as town, but I am now forced to go back and read her posts as genuine town.

ChrisOrmie · Post Post #1477 (ISO) » Mon Apr 03, 2017 9:41 am

In post 1476, Icy wrote:
In post 1474, ChrisOrmie wrote:
Icy wrote:
In post 1466, DogWatch wrote:Icy, are you saying you're 80% on Chris being scum?
Yes
Interesting. You said you've been fairly sure I was town all of yesterday, why the switch?
For me sense the end of day one it has been Alisae, or Mastina. I agree with you on not understanding Mastinas play as town, but I am now forced to go back and read her posts as genuine town.

Okay I can understand the logic there at least. I'm not scum, but if you are sheeping Mastina since she flipped town then she didn't like my slot much. Not to mention I spent most of yesterday heavily pushing a mislynch - I'd want to lynch me today also on that alone.

You still thinking it's Alisae, then? I think I'm the only one townreading that slot right now, and after yesterdays lynch I have no idea if I'm just reading people wrong. Think I might need to rebuild my list from scratch, not got the time to do all the ISOs tonight but should be back tomorrow or Wednesday with a (hopefully) better read on the game. Blawb might have been the one with the best read on Mastina in retrospect, think I might need to start with their ISO and see what other slots they spoke about.

ThinkBig · Post Post #1478 (ISO) » Mon Apr 03, 2017 10:01 am

@chris, if you think Alisae is town, then who is scum?

ChrisOrmie · Post Post #1479 (ISO) » Mon Apr 03, 2017 10:29 am

In post 1478, ThinkBig wrote:@chris, if you think Alisae is town, then who is scum?

The ISOs might change things, but OldWino and DogWatch are the two slots I have had issues sorting so far. I'm worried I might be confBias with Ali due to him being town in our last game and he's played this game similar but it doesn't feel the same. He felt more newbie and worried in that one, whereas here he's far more confident and seems more experienced. I'm still unsure on Grey's play but that might be influenced by my Ali townread, so not really sure on your slot either. I felt you were sheeping Mastina yesterday and if she flipped scum I was sure you'd be the other, but right now I have a feeling that you're town.

I really want to see Smith/Mastina/Blawbslot's reads again as we know they were town and can trust their intent. Also want to see if anyone voted in blocs, and who started which wagon. I think I'm going to spend a long time taking notes and re-reading the thread until I have a better grasp on how we got to MYLO so quickly.

I getting scared it's Ali becuase RC had me fairly sold on the slot and then Ali scumhunted Grey, but I also might have past game confBias mixed in too. It's more likely that Wino or Dog is the final scum, both post some decent things but they are the hardest slots to read their intent. Let me get my ISOs in and I'll give more confident reads in a day or so, right now I have so much WIFOM going through my mind that I can't tell think straight. I also think VCA is going to be key here - not really done it before, but it's worth a try.

oldwino · Post Post #1480 (ISO) » Mon Apr 03, 2017 1:18 pm

Hey, I'm back tonight but not for long. I hope I can make time tomorrow to really get back into the game but RL is unpredictable right now. I still mostly suspect TB (Grey) and Alisae, although I townread RC (Alisae's slot)
D1 until the end when she was around making sure Smith was lynched. I'm a little suspicious of Chris, but that may be because he is suspicious of me. Mostly, I like his logic, but now I'm reading Mastina's logic with a new perspective.

Since I helped mislynch Mastina and was very critical of her play, I'll give her my 'proxy vote' in memory of her play and her mislynch. Sheep her after death. And as I read her last post, she was convinced the scum team is Alisae and Chris, Alisae moreso even than Chris. So, for now, I'm close to voting Alisae based partly on my own suspicions but even moreso as a proxy vote for Mastina. But I will wait until tomorrow and my head is clear and I am sure I'm not unwittingly taking Ali to L1 or worse. But TB and Chris are still on my radar right there behind Alisae.

So, until tomorrow . . .

DogWatch · Post Post #1481 (ISO) » Mon Apr 03, 2017 1:51 pm

@oldwino Think about it this way.

We were all pretty sure the Day 2 lynch would be either mastina or ThinkBig. No one else was in any real danger. Scum knew that. As the day progressed they were able to split up and anchor both wagons. Chris parked on mastina and continued attacking her, hoping the wagon would build. Meanwhile, Alisae remained mostly on the ThinkBig wagon (they were briefly together on mastina) but never hammered. This way, they were able to maintain pressure on both wagons, and when the victim flipped, at least one of their names would be in the clear. Simple, but effective in such a small game.

Take another look at how Alisae threatens the hammer but gives mastina last minute mercy. Do you think that's a little fishy in light of what we know now?

Alisae · Post Post #1482 (ISO) » Mon Apr 03, 2017 5:39 pm

In post 1461, ChrisOrmie wrote:If you remove Grey from the slot, how does your read change?

In post 1458, Alisae wrote:If anyone wants to interogate me about things you are so welcome to do so.

TB I scumread you because your vote on me yesterday was shit and I feel like town!TB would have argued that I was just hardcore tunneling you. Instead you OMGUS'd me. Not to mention everything that comes out of your mouth just seems really fake. Also I hate how you twisted what happened in Witch Trials, you completely misrepresented how that game went down.

BTW I wanna add that this implies my read WOULD change.

Alisae · Post Post #1483 (ISO) » Mon Apr 03, 2017 5:41 pm

In post 1462, DogWatch wrote:-A bunch of pre-flip associations-

Yeah this is adorable. The thing that's cute about pre-flip associations is that THEY DON'T FUCKING WORK. It's a distraction. It's a thing to prove your confbias. See Civ mafia (it's a 749 page game). Town mostly relied on their cute pre-flip associations so they got rekt. They were also bad in other ways but scum also engineered town to make it so they couldn't not be terrible.

Alisae · Post Post #1484 (ISO) » Mon Apr 03, 2017 5:42 pm

In post 1463, DogWatch wrote:In light of mastina's flip, many of Chris's posts look like serious attempts to discredit her.

Okay. Maybe you got a point here.

Alisae · Post Post #1485 (ISO) » Mon Apr 03, 2017 5:43 pm

In post 1468, DogWatch wrote:OK, that means everyone remaining except Chris has been openly willing to vote Alisae.

This is reckless thinking.

Alisae · Post Post #1486 (ISO) » Mon Apr 03, 2017 5:45 pm

Oh btw, more evidence that TB is scum.
Town!TB woulda been like "DOGWATCH STOP" or something like that because he HATES recklessness in Mylo/lylo.
He isn't doing this.

Alisae · Post Post #1487 (ISO) » Mon Apr 03, 2017 5:46 pm

TB hasn't even commented on Dogwatch's vote and I find that adorable.
VOTE: Thinkbig

ThinkBig · Post Post #1488 (ISO) » Mon Apr 03, 2017 5:48 pm

In post 1487, Alisae wrote:TB hasn't even commented on Dogwatch's vote and I find that adorable.
VOTE: Thinkbig

What exactly am I supposed to comment on? It takes 4 to lynch. Scum team can't hammer with 1 vote.

Alisae · Post Post #1489 (ISO) » Mon Apr 03, 2017 5:48 pm

Hey Chris, why do you TR me?
You may have posted somewhere earlier but I forgot.

ThinkBig · Post Post #1490 (ISO) » Mon Apr 03, 2017 5:48 pm

And I really haven't commented on much of anything yet today.

Alisae · Post Post #1491 (ISO) » Mon Apr 03, 2017 5:49 pm

In post 1488, ThinkBig wrote:
In post 1487, Alisae wrote:TB hasn't even commented on Dogwatch's vote and I find that adorable.
VOTE: Thinkbig
What exactly am I supposed to comment on? It takes 4 to lynch. Scum team can't hammer with 1 vote.

DIE SCUM!

Alisae · Post Post #1492 (ISO) » Mon Apr 03, 2017 5:49 pm

In post 1490, ThinkBig wrote:And I really haven't commented on much of anything yet today.

COASTING SCUM!

ThinkBig · Post Post #1493 (ISO) » Mon Apr 03, 2017 5:49 pm

In post 1492, Alisae wrote:
In post 1490, ThinkBig wrote:And I really haven't commented on much of anything yet today.
COASTING SCUM!

No. Not coasting scum. It's more like I'm working and in school for 10 hours + and it is the week before Passover.

ThinkBig · Post Post #1494 (ISO) » Mon Apr 03, 2017 5:50 pm

I also took some time to re read the game and will be making some comments on that tomorrow. It is 1 am where I am. Good night.

Alisae · Post Post #1495 (ISO) » Mon Apr 03, 2017 5:50 pm

TB am I town deathtunneling you?
Or am I scum?
I can't be confirmation bias'd scum after all, let me remind you that just doesn't work.

Alisae · Post Post #1496 (ISO) » Mon Apr 03, 2017 5:51 pm

Like the fact you scumread me for this is a fucking joke.

ChrisOrmie · Post Post #1497 (ISO) » Tue Apr 04, 2017 3:38 am

In post 1489, Alisae wrote:Hey Chris, why do you TR me?
You may have posted somewhere earlier but I forgot.

RC day 1, your scumhunting of Grey, overall tone, and your similar to the last game where you were town.

oldwino · Post Post #1498 (ISO) » Tue Apr 04, 2017 7:39 am

In post 1476, Icy wrote:
In post 1474, ChrisOrmie wrote:
Icy wrote:
In post 1466, DogWatch wrote:Icy, are you saying you're 80% on Chris being scum?
Yes
Interesting. You said you've been fairly sure I was town all of yesterday, why the switch?
For me sense the end of day one it has been Alisae, or Mastina. I agree with you on not understanding Mastinas play as town, but I am now forced to go back and read her posts as genuine town.

Icy, I very much want to know what you're thinking, if you've had time to reread Mastina.

oldwino · Post Post #1499 (ISO) » Tue Apr 04, 2017 7:48 am

In post 1481, DogWatch wrote:@oldwino Think about it this way.

We were all pretty sure the Day 2 lynch would be either mastina or ThinkBig. No one else was in any real danger. Scum knew that. As the day progressed they were able to split up and anchor both wagons. Chris parked on mastina and continued attacking her, hoping the wagon would build. Meanwhile, Alisae remained mostly on the ThinkBig wagon (they were briefly together on mastina) but never hammered. This way, they were able to maintain pressure on both wagons, and when the victim flipped, at least one of their names would be in the clear. Simple, but effective in such a small game.

Take another look at how Alisae threatens the hammer but gives mastina last minute mercy. Do you think that's a little fishy in light of what we know now?

Yes, I think Alisae avoiding dropping the hammer is suspicious, especially since he said at one point, I think, he'd come back and do it. I was disappointed TB hammered because I wanted to see if Ali would really do it.

Mastina was convinced the scum team was Alisae and Chris. I'm mostly leaning Alisae because he avoided the Mastina lynch, and because of his 'flailing' posts today, back and forth with TB which has not been productive, just finger-pointing. I'm still wondering if Alisae and TB are a team, bussing each other so heavily, which take me back to my old suspicion of RC and Grey as the scum team.

At this point, I'd vote Alisae if Icy agrees, since he is the ONLY player besides myself I am confident in, because of his conftown, level head, and logic. I'm not sure how SOON I would vote Ali to L1 or hammer, but that's my lean right now.

Maybe there's no reason to wait. What are we going to learn if we wait a few days, or a week? Is anyone going to confess? Ha! Maybe get it over with and go on to another game.