Large Normal 202 - Flavorful Mafia - Game Over!

[Creature]

VOTE: gerryoat

[LicketyQuickety]

VOTE: gerryoat

Why?

[Fro99er]

VC

[PeregrineV]

I am PhD on mafia, stop calling me "graduated".

Advanced concepts such as holding town power close to the vest to minimize scum shenanigans are doctor-level mafia concepts.

They will get you keeled.

Creature already knows that...

Since you're here, your 1694 doesn't make much sense. Can you elaborate?

OK, I will try.

I find it highly unlikely there is both a Gunsmith, Doctor and Cop in the game for seemingly obvious reasons (Follow the Cop). I am thinking either Town has a counter-balance of an anti-Town Town role(s) in the game. The thing is, there are not a whole lot of negative utility normal roles and fewer that make sense. IDK exactly the ones there are because I am poor at memorizing, but I know millar is one and that only really makes sense if there is both Cop and Gunsmith in the game, if Uzi's claim is correct, which I am not sure of even though I think Uzi is Town. But if Alisae's claim is true that that can in part contribute to balancing out Town's power, but its going to need more than that to balance Doc, Cop, Gunsmith and Weak Vig. This ofc only assumes that those other roles don't have modifiers on them and the hypothetical that these are the only PR's in the game and that is about my limit.

And there is no guarantee that there is a Mafia RB in the game, so there is that as well.

I don't understand where this supposition of roles existing is coming from.

[Creature]

VOTE: gerryoat

Why?

Because I haven't seen any scumhunting from him.

[Lowell]

umlaut is trying to whiteknight me. It's subtle but it's there. his reaction to Ali's threat to NK me was both bizarre (why does this affect him?) and unneeded (no one takes Ali seriously). His reaction to fykus's claim is also dumb. Just vote the guy if you want, why make a scene. no one cares about your process. he's a tryhard trying to be a lurker is what I'm saying here.

VOTE: umlaut

LQ is town, creature is trending town, Ali's claim is fine, pere is town, some other things probably happening. one of fire or trans is scum but I'm hesitating on which.

[LicketyQuickety]

I am PhD on mafia, stop calling me "graduated".

Advanced concepts such as holding town power close to the vest to minimize scum shenanigans are doctor-level mafia concepts.

They will get you keeled.

Creature already knows that...

Since you're here, your 1694 doesn't make much sense. Can you elaborate?

OK, I will try.

I find it highly unlikely there is both a Gunsmith, Doctor and Cop in the game for seemingly obvious reasons (Follow the Cop). I am thinking either Town has a counter-balance of an anti-Town Town role(s) in the game. The thing is, there are not a whole lot of negative utility normal roles and fewer that make sense. IDK exactly the ones there are because I am poor at memorizing, but I know millar is one and that only really makes sense if there is both Cop and Gunsmith in the game, if Uzi's claim is correct, which I am not sure of even though I think Uzi is Town. But if Alisae's claim is true that that can in part contribute to balancing out Town's power, but its going to need more than that to balance Doc, Cop, Gunsmith and Weak Vig. This ofc only assumes that those other roles don't have modifiers on them and the hypothetical that these are the only PR's in the game and that is about my limit.

And there is no guarantee that there is a Mafia RB in the game, so there is that as well.

I don't understand where this supposition of roles existing is coming from.

Gunsmith because Uzi claimed it, Weak Vig because Alisae claimed it, and I am saying there is most likely NOT a Cop in the game, but if there is there might be a millar to counter balance the TPRs. If there is a millar then Cop will get a guilty on the millar, but iirc Gunsmith will not, just like Cop

might

get a guilty on SK (if there is one) but Gunsmith will not. Doc was talked about earlier, but the gist is to give Alisae the ability to survive even if they NK Scum. Weak Vig is not that strong of a role, but it is a role that was not given in the Semi-Open setup that was given. IDK if Weak Vig is the kind of role that can be in the game on its own without changing the balance of the game by not having to include other roles as well. I can see Weak Vig being in the game because the mod said there

might

be a SK in the game. IDK that the mod would make 3 killing roles in the game, but he could have and we wont know until tomorrow.

Does that answer your question?

[Lexa]

Going back through the thread, looking for things that jump out at me as AI, long post warning (EDIT: Made it through page 28)
Preface note I don't generally do tone reads well, though they occasionally manifest through "this is townie/scummy but idk why"

alisae, keyen, LuV I have specific questions for you in the wall below


Slight town points to Creature for 70, explicitly declaring RVS as over is something I wouldn't be surprised to see done as scum but the motivations for doing so are more inherently townie

I never lynch Alisae today, those crumbs came early and often, obviously provable role as either alignment

Scum points to LQ for 81, major overreaction to something that really isn't AI. Trans isn't that bad that I think he'd expect anyone to give him towncred for that post and I have a high enough expectation for this playerbase that they wouldn't consider that AI from him here

Good point from Alisae in 116, makes LQ look worse. Don't agree with his defense where he states his belief that you shouldn't argue with your scum reads. The only time that's beneficial is when your scum reads are actual scum. If they are town then it provides an opportunity to engage with them and get more data points to hold them against further in the game. If scum it gives more opportunities for scum slips. As long as you're consciously avoid anchoring bias arguing with scum reads (within reason) is beneficial.

173 as point of reference, look to see if creature calls anyone out on a vanity wagon

202 is a bit odd, first mention of a SK and kind of out of nowhere. Fire crumbing?

@Alisae, are you still willing to bet the game on 230?

@Keyen, what is this post based off of?

Fire's 258, if this is taken at face value it's rather interesting in consideration of 202; could be a second SK crumb?

arona's 262 is hugely scummy, this is the rare occasion where this is blatantly off tonally

Scratch that arona was drunk

Finding the pressure on LUV odd at this point, haven't seen anything notable from them

On the one hand Lowell's reaction here as first post is rather odd, I'd think town!Lowell would be supportive of activity, but on the other hand I totally get it

Really don't like his follow up 356, throwing down a bunch of reads but none of them tangible and then sheeping the LuV wagon, could be town but the motivations for sheeping here are much more inherently scummy

I wish I could read transcend's playstyle

Noting that LuV claims town gunsmith at L-2

393 almost feels like a townslip from Trans? iirc the set up is explicitly one mafia role two town roles so if there's a ninja mafia would automatically know there's a backup

Agree with LuVs content here, not entirely sure what to make of it though. I almost feel like the tone of this post, which would otherwise seem scummy makes more sense when paired with LuV claiming early. Don't like the subtle push away from people trying to read him, but in general this gets slight town points.

Chickadee's 406 is a big inexperienced town tell for me, exactly the sort of thing I would do (and get voted for) on my main site when I was starting out

Firebringer's 410 is odd yet again. I'm trying to avoid conf bias here but these coincidences are starting to pile up

@Lil Uzi Vert give me a follow up on your reads on the people you were focused on in this post

Really dislike 433 but I don't think it's AI, note to watch gerry posts more closely

Scum points to keyen. I'm very interested in how you can simultaneously have no serious reads at 446 yet be confident in the existence of a mafia roleblocker at 243. If this is coming from town I have to imagine there would have been someone or something that made you think they were a roleblocker and being confident enough in that thought to state your belief on it should be enough to constitute a serious read.

Town points to creature at 450, I don't see scum making that post

I do think he's overly focused on whether something is easy to say as scum though, rather than looking at content or motivation. Although a motivation could be that something is easy to say, but I don't find that sufficient in and of itself

I like the thought behind ava's deconstruction of a Lowell counter wagon, not enough to get town points but a good opening look

gerry. no

LQ posts put me to sleep

@alisae reasoning for 525? Is this a legitimate read or confbiasing 230?

@alisae why is 533 a bad thing? If a wagon is scummy as hell people are going to be pushing to get the townie lynched, that's an ideal situation to look for inconsistent reasoning and scum slips among the wagoners

Thinking more about it I don't think i ever lynch fire today, my suspicions about him being an SK are pretty clearly determined if there are multiple kills overnight and he's top of the line for SK consideration if that happens

Alisae towning it up in 549

This is so true

Slight scum points to gerry at 589, unusually aggressive and also subtle buddying of alisae which is notable in light of his aforementioned 433

I don't want to lynch chickadee because she's adorable

Oh jesus only a third of the way through

Curious that fire is trying to form a townblock now after diverting town stuff away from him

Agree with 626

gerryoat looking worse to me, 633is a continuation of his previous posts, casts a lot of suspicion but there's nothing tangible behind what he's said, nothing he can really be held to. Slight scum points.

The irony of 648 when he'd been pushing pressure on lurkers including a V/LA person


An hour into this I'm losing steam, so I'ma drop this here and come back with more later

Key reads atm

town: creature, alisae, ava, trans, chick

???: fire

null: the rest

scum: LQ, lowell, gerry, key

never lynch today: alisae, fire

[Lowell]

I'll forgive you because you're new but wow these reads are bad.

Help me sort fire and trans, please, that's the issue we're going to need to solve long-term.

[Lexa]

I can see why you're suspicious of both people but not clear on why they're tvs?

[Creature]

gerryoat or Umlaut

Pick your pick

[Lexa]

VOTE: gerryoat

[Creature]

I wished I could hear more from our Gunsmith.

[Transcend]

i knew it lexa was town

i just knew it

[Creature]

Transcend

gerryoat or Umlaut

Pick your pick

[Creature]

Oh nvm, you already picked your picked.

[Transcend]

i need a gerry case to be sold bc what i've seen from him reads as typical play from him.

[LicketyQuickety]

i need a gerry case to be sold bc what i've seen from him reads as typical play from him.

I agree with this. I don't necessarily think Gerry is Scum, but the way they are putting out info is off putting.

[Eddie Cane]

licky quicky

[Transcend]

critter

[PeregrineV]

I am PhD on mafia, stop calling me "graduated".

Advanced concepts such as holding town power close to the vest to minimize scum shenanigans are doctor-level mafia concepts.

They will get you keeled.

Creature already knows that...

Since you're here, your 1694 doesn't make much sense. Can you elaborate?

OK, I will try.

I find it highly unlikely there is both a Gunsmith, Doctor and Cop in the game for seemingly obvious reasons (Follow the Cop). I am thinking either Town has a counter-balance of an anti-Town Town role(s) in the game. The thing is, there are not a whole lot of negative utility normal roles and fewer that make sense. IDK exactly the ones there are because I am poor at memorizing, but I know millar is one and that only really makes sense if there is both Cop and Gunsmith in the game, if Uzi's claim is correct, which I am not sure of even though I think Uzi is Town. But if Alisae's claim is true that that can in part contribute to balancing out Town's power, but its going to need more than that to balance Doc, Cop, Gunsmith and Weak Vig. This ofc only assumes that those other roles don't have modifiers on them and the hypothetical that these are the only PR's in the game and that is about my limit.

And there is no guarantee that there is a Mafia RB in the game, so there is that as well.

I don't understand where this supposition of roles existing is coming from.

Gunsmith because Uzi claimed it, Weak Vig because Alisae claimed it, and I am saying there is most likely NOT a Cop in the game, but if there is there might be a millar to counter balance the TPRs. If there is a millar then Cop will get a guilty on the millar, but iirc Gunsmith will not, just like Cop

might

get a guilty on SK (if there is one) but Gunsmith will not. Doc was talked about earlier, but the gist is to give Alisae the ability to survive even if they NK Scum. Weak Vig is not that strong of a role, but it is a role that was not given in the Semi-Open setup that was given. IDK if Weak Vig is the kind of role that can be in the game on its own without changing the balance of the game by not having to include other roles as well. I can see Weak Vig being in the game because the mod said there

might

be a SK in the game. IDK that the mod would make 3 killing roles in the game, but he could have and we wont know until tomorrow.

Does that answer your question?

I suppose. Was there a miller claim that I missed?

[Alisae]

Wait some nerd claimed Miller?

[Chickadee]

Over LUV who claimed gunsmith?

Like Fykus, Garry and LUV know my vig game. They know I can hit scum.
pedit: Eddie is trolling.

YOU won't be saying that when I vig you

No one claimed Miller. It just a theory someone came up with.

[Chickadee]

Apparently I had a quote waiting in queue...Dont even know why I would have clicked that. Ignore the quoted part.

[Alisae]

Lexa btw I know you have questions, but I think you can wait till I get home