Open 680: C9++ (Abandoned due to mod error. See new thread)

[ThinkBig]

Official Vote Count

Momo

(3): beeboy, Ircher, FireScreamer

Ircher

(3): RoryMK, FrankJaeger, Umlaut

Alchemist21

(2): DarkChocolate n PalmTree, CommKnight

CommKnight

(2): Momo, shannon

shannon

(1): Alchemist21

Not Voting

(2): davesaz, Green Crayons

With 13 alive, it takes 7 to lynch.

Deadline

: (expired on 2017-04-19 12:22:58)

[Umlaut]

@mod

you've listed Momo and Fredrick E Campbell separately on that last VC.

[ThinkBig]

Should be fixed...I hope.

[Ircher]

Prodging.

I promise some actual content by Saturday evening at the latest.

[davesaz]

Can you explain the Alchemist read? I saw in your iso that you agreed with someone else but nothing independent recently.

[davesaz]

Question on Alchemist read was for FireScreamer.

PalmTree
GC/Comm
Rory
Ircher/ Beeboy
Frank/Dave/Umlaut
Shannon
Momo/Alchemist

Off the table is Rory and up. Aware that I'm likely too high on ircher based on one post but he's below the line and I'd be willing to settle for him if the case was argued well.

[davesaz]

{DarkChocolate n PalmTree, CommKnight}
{Green Crayons, FireScreamer}
{FrankJaeger, davesaz, RoryMK}
{Alchemist21, shannon, beeboy}
{Ircher, Fredrick E Campbell}

This list is pretty off-the-cuff, and in particular the distinction between tiers 3 and 4 is pretty fluid. Main points of note:

• I'm losing faith in my townreads on shannon and Alchemist after seeing the points raised against them.
  
• I've totally flipped on the meaning of Tojam's replacement, following Fredrick's replacement.

Rory, I notice you've never explained your scumread on Dave. Please do so.

You have GC in next to highest tier but I don't see any commentary or quotes of his posts. What did you base that read on?

[davesaz]

One thing I'll disagree with is the bolded line in quoted 236. What Shannon is describing here is similar a theory known as an unexpected gamestall that Aneninen* has talked about before. It is possible that she had heard of this somewhere and applied the basic idea without considering the timing of it. Given that in another post she called for a prod after only a 9-hour period on someone, it seems like Shannon thinks the game operates on a faster pace than it does, but that itself is weird considering she's actually been here a year.

So realtalk: how can we distinguish between a stall on a townIrcher wagon (because of reasons per Aneninen's theory) and a stall on a scumIrcher wagon (scum don't want to bus)?

Well for one it was still a bit early to even use the theory and the number of lurking slots contributed. But actually looking at the theory, it states that scum aren't making any big pushes because they don't need to (all major wagons are on Town). They don't want to get flak for finishing a mislynch wagon, but they don't want to take steam away from them. In a scumIrcher case I think the theory implies that scum would attempt to mount a counterwagon.

What do you think of the current state?

[davesaz]

This list is pretty off-the-cuff, and in particular the distinction between tiers 3 and 4 is pretty fluid. Main points of note:

• I'm losing faith in my townreads on shannon and Alchemist after seeing the points raised against them.
  
• I've totally flipped on the meaning of Tojam's replacement, following Fredrick's replacement.

Rory, I notice you've never explained your scumread on Dave. Please do so.

Honestly I'd support an Alchemist lynch over a Shannon lynch. I'm still seeing Shannon as a town flip. Even my look scummy to survive gambit wasn't toying with that. I honestly think Shannon is an easy mislynch. There was no real resistance against voting her and like I say, that analytical post definitely seemed more townie for that game state than scummy.

Also the case on Alchemist does have some valid points. His cases aren't exactly pushing people because they're scummy, but rather for NAI reasons.

P.S. The exam was pretty easily. We got 3 hours, I did it in 90 mins. Hahah.

Thoughts on other players? You seem to have faded since the claim.

[davesaz]

davesaz

- hints at possible scummy stuff at the start of the game, without committing to it. Seems to be checking what might work.(55-57)
- another attempt to see what might work with a vote on Ircher (112)
- dropped off the radar after wagons started forming

Congratulations, you managed to discover my availability is highly variable. What would be AI about that?

[davesaz]

333 and 514 are pretty explicit about the availability thing btw.

[Alchemist21]

One thing I'll disagree with is the bolded line in quoted 236. What Shannon is describing here is similar a theory known as an unexpected gamestall that Aneninen* has talked about before. It is possible that she had heard of this somewhere and applied the basic idea without considering the timing of it. Given that in another post she called for a prod after only a 9-hour period on someone, it seems like Shannon thinks the game operates on a faster pace than it does, but that itself is weird considering she's actually been here a year.

So realtalk: how can we distinguish between a stall on a townIrcher wagon (because of reasons per Aneninen's theory) and a stall on a scumIrcher wagon (scum don't want to bus)?

Well for one it was still a bit early to even use the theory and the number of lurking slots contributed. But actually looking at the theory, it states that scum aren't making any big pushes because they don't need to (all major wagons are on Town). They don't want to get flak for finishing a mislynch wagon, but they don't want to take steam away from them. In a scumIrcher case I think the theory implies that scum would attempt to mount a counterwagon.

What do you think of the current state?

Feels kinda hectic to me. I think the high number of replacements has kept the game slightly unstable in the sense that people have constantly had to readjust for new players. I can understand the anti-momo sentiment that's caused their wagon but I want to see them post their thoughts first before I solidify a read there. Probably gonna reread the game tomorrow and see if I can pick up on anything I may have missed the first time around.

[DarkChocolate n PalmTree]

PalmTree
GC/Comm
Rory
Ircher/ Beeboy
Frank/Dave/Umlaut
Shannon
Momo/Alchemist

Off the table is Rory and up. Aware that I'm likely too high on ircher based on one post but he's below the line and I'd be willing to settle for him if the case was argued well.

List is fine, but I want to know

why

you're sorting players in that order... not so much the order that they're in.

[Green Crayons]

dave, explain to me your process

because you're quoting posts from the 700s

but then also 300s and 500s are being thrown in there

[Green Crayons]

I do need to reread (and totally will guys and girls) but can, like, three other people also reread just to look at the pingponging of the wagons this D1?

because there is probably something worth saying about the wagons but

thinking

is

hard

and I'm not too good at it, so I want to check my work against other peoples' work.

[davesaz]

dave, explain to me your process

because you're quoting posts from the 700s

but then also 300s and 500s are being thrown in there

I'm iso backtracking to find points of interest.

[davesaz]

What do you think of the current state?

Feels kinda hectic to me. I think the high number of replacements has kept the game slightly unstable in the sense that people have constantly had to readjust for new players. I can understand the anti-momo sentiment that's caused their wagon but I want to see them post their thoughts first before I solidify a read there. Probably gonna reread the game tomorrow and see if I can pick up on anything I may have missed the first time around.

A lot has happened since the post I quoted 315. What was the basis of your current vote? Is there anything more to it than what you said previously?

[davesaz]

*sits and waits for 2nd scum replacement*

Any thoughts yet?

[davesaz]

I do need to reread (and totally will guys and girls) but can, like, three other people also reread just to look at the pingponging of the wagons this D1?

You mean like vote trajectory analysis? That might be doable, but is it likely to help given who was wagoned?

[Green Crayons]

I mean whatever you do to evaluate wagons. You do you. I'm willing to assume Comm is town (with a small grain o' salt) for purposes of this analysis.

I think there has been 4 or 5 (?) serious wagons this day. There have been lots of votes on and off those wagons. Looking into that is prob fruitful -- obviously moreso when we have more flips, but would be interested if anyone comes up with good theories up to this point (in contrast to folks just reverting back to <welp these are people I thought were suspicious at some point so... vote>).

Obviously speaking to the not-recent-replacements, who are already doing (initial) read throughs. Which provide their own good fodder for analysis.

[davesaz]

Yeah, I really want to see some reasons. We're well past the point where "looks scummy" is enough. My town reads are even doing it.

[FireScreamer]

PalmTree
GC/Comm
Rory
Ircher/ Beeboy
Frank/Dave/Umlaut
Shannon
Momo/Alchemist

Off the table is Rory and up. Aware that I'm likely too high on ircher based on one post but he's below the line and I'd be willing to settle for him if the case was argued well.

List is fine, but I want to know

why

you're sorting players in that order... not so much the order that they're in.

I'm generally better at townreading than scum hunting. The Comm claim also really changed the bottom of that list. Now the list is informed by the idea that Comm is likely town and ircher is probable town. Alchemist happily joined both parties and he's sort of low key made me nervous all game.

[shannon]

Catching up, P27:

Cog didn't explicitly ragequit like Tojam just did.

!!!

Produce getting in a flight

...what? Please don't tell me you're about to start drunk posting.

Prod dodge, was getting on a flight. Shit escalated from there, sorry I've been away.

Fredrick E. Campbell replaces Tojam2!

Fredrick E Campbell has requested replacement.

Protip: at least skim the gamestate before replacing in.

The 2nd replace out gives me a completely different vibe that almost completely eliminates the reason that tojam2 might replace out as town.
Now it's at most NAI and trending toward scum.

Agree, would vote this slot, waiting to vote until I've caught up fully.

So I see I did reach L1. Just skimmed through since I just got to the city. After this I do gotta focus on prepping for the exam.

I'm a

1-shot doctor

. Which means there's at least one more doctor alive and that there is 3-4 baddies. Depending on how many other PRs we have.

Honestly, I tried to seem scummy enough that mafia nor possible SK would kill me and I could use my 1-shot when we needed it toward MYLO/LYLO. But I seem to have overdone it a bit and Cog drew attention to my slot before I replaced in so i had to pull some theater level shit there to stay on the "scummy" list while trying not to be put into the L1 position. Obviously didn't work with a few people breathing down my neck and not looking elsewhere.

Anyway, I gotta go study. I'll see you all tonight when I finish (if I'm not LOL-hammered).

UNVOTE: CommKnight

Math nerd post coming shortly. 1-shot doctor is not a safe fakeclaim, so I believe this.

Never vote Umlaut unless it's mathematically impossible he's town

The weakest vote on the Comm wagon is Shannon who joined because some idiot asked her to and then shut up entirely

I did, it's true. I didn't 'shut up' thought, I'm on holidays and have been travelling.

UNVOTE:

[shannon]

Page 29

Dark Choc getting town points for the Alch case. Could def vote there.

I can get behind that almost as much as Shannon tbh

Goody let's do it. (Pending end of re-read)

{DarkChocolate n PalmTree, CommKnight}
{Green Crayons, FireScreamer}
{FrankJaeger, davesaz, RoryMK}
{Alchemist21, shannon, beeboy}
{Ircher, Fredrick E Campbell}

This list is pretty off-the-cuff, and in particular the distinction between tiers 3 and 4 is pretty fluid. Main points of note:

• I'm losing faith in my townreads on shannon and Alchemist after seeing the points raised against them.
  
• I've totally flipped on the meaning of Tojam's replacement, following Fredrick's replacement.

Rory, I notice you've never explained your scumread on Dave. Please do so.

It's pretty easy to make a scum case on someone who's not around, so I'm more interested in the people who are trying to shade me.
Someone posted that I'm looking like an easy mislynch, and while that's possibly true because I've been away, I've been lynched all of twice ever. So if anyone is thinking of mislynching me, they need to work a whole lot harder now that I'm back and have time to participate properly.

[shannon]

Holy shit stop tunneling a townread on Shannon. No resistance to voting her? Her largest wagon was like 3 votes and lots of people have been inexplicably townreading her for nothing. You showed up right as I was trying to get focus on to her and took everything onto yourself. Shannon had counterwagons going and nobody was eager to vote her at all. She's Scum[/quote]

I don't get the connection between 'no one' voting me and me being scum. I think Umlaut's math showed 3 scum, so if I'm scum there's only two others in the game. That leaves how many people to vote me? This is a BS non-case if ever I saw one.

Why does Shannon vote you while absolving herself of responsibility and then vanishes apart from to prodge?

Because she is on holidays, and had to get a flight, and then got caught up with family shiz because of a new baby and babysitting duty.

I could've asked the same of townies in other games. My guess? VT who isn't involved as much as she should be, but I'm going to check her on-site activity to see if she is really just prodging or if she's just busy/offline mostly.

For what it's worth, I love playing no matter what my role and I always try to be as involved as possible. This time, things have been unexpectedly busy. Activity or not will never be AI or role indicative for me.

I brought up nobody voting only to refute the point that the wagon on her was too easy.

PalmTree
GC/Comm
Rory
Ircher/ Beeboy
Frank/Dave/Umlaut
Shannon
Momo/Alchemist

Off the table is Rory and up. Aware that I'm likely too high on ircher based on one post but he's below the line and I'd be willing to settle for him if the case was argued well.

I don't understand how you have Ircher and Beeboy as townier than Dave and Umlaut. If I've missed that in my catch up please let me know.