I read nothing of this game besides first post before I subbed in.
I probably won't read any of stuff I wasn't here for either unless people quote it.
Maybe if I get in try hard mood.
Please don't get me in try hard mood
I know you don't wanna read the old stuff, and I'm about to ask you to read something everyone complained about, but can you look back at me vs Green Crayons and tell me what you think?
In post 1063, Umlaut wrote:To be more clear: the odds that (a) there's a masonry, and (b) it includes some specific player, are low enough that if FireBringer's answer was "yeah, I'm a mason" it would effectively be a scumclaim.
In post 985, Umlaut wrote:Brian, what are your feelings on Titus' play? I'm not necessarily asking for a read, just whether you find it pro-town or think you understand her motivations.
All I know is that Titus is heavily reliant on VCA. However, the stars and the planets have aligned and we agree on a read, so I'm sheeping her. And the Rory wagon had no legs.
I think Narna is probably town. His comment about ToS (which I'm assuming to be Town of Salem), reminded me that there are players who actually do push people just to get a claim (it's not their fault though, their classic setup is predicated upon the idea that claim=alignment and they only get like 2-3 minutes per day phase).
I've gone back and tried to look at the game from a Town-CommKnight perspective. I've found myself townreading his thought processes.
Although I don't agree with him about the probability, I can see why he would think it. And FS piggybacking your argument against him felt wrong to me (he also piggybacked my reasons for scumreading
you
). I don't know if he's given a scumread that was based on his own original thought.
Spoiler: FireScreamer Quotes
In post 146, FireScreamer wrote:But yeah. I feel like I've done something this game that I actively wouldn't do as scum and asked a couple of middling questions. The fact that Umlaut ignored the bigger thing makes me think the read wasn't super thought out and I think town is less likely to not properly think about townreads before expressing them.
This gamblers fallacy stuff is lol. Time to pressure Comm till he reveals it was all a ruse and he is actually 1 shot doc pretending to be scummy.
And come on guys what are the odds of him doing that twice in a row
In post 258, FireScreamer wrote:Eh. Usually I'd assume it's a town gambit but Commknight has already shown a willingness to make plays as scum. I don't think he should be gambiting and if that is what he is doing the quickest way to shut it down is votes.
In post 260, FireScreamer wrote:Even is this was OMGUS that's NAI. However I challenge anyone in the thead to seriously decide that I wouldn't scumread you for this if it was targeting anyone else.
In post 261, FireScreamer wrote:I warn you Comm. If you try and take me down here you will lose. If you are town you need to reconsider suiciding based on a provable logical fallacy. It would leave town with nothing to go on tomorrow.
Fearmongering.
In post 264, FireScreamer wrote:I've already made a statement in the thread I wouldn't have as scum. And I assure you it wasn't a threat. It was a certainty.
^This is a trust tell statement.
In post 265, FireScreamer wrote:If people come at me with questions in an attempt to sort me il work with them. If people come with accusations based in provably flawed logic I'm going to treat it as hostility.
Generally I bet that this is reaction test nonsense in which case I'd tell you that you don't have town credability doing this so knock it off.
Unnatural. More fearmongering.
In post 276, FireScreamer wrote:As a joke because he has started this game the same as last by trying to fite the player in the thread that has been most overtly townread.
Idk what this is. FS is putting himself on a pedestal and I didn't get the impression he was being overtly townread.
Interesting that all I have to do is mention the words 'trust tell,' and I get accused of fearmongering. Yet, that's exactly what FireScreamer is doing to CommKnight here. Not to mention that CommKnight is right that some of his comments sound very unnatural from a town perspective.
In post 422, Green Crayons wrote:
Uh, +1, or ditto, or whatever the cool kids are saying these days.
Lol, "cool kids." I'M COOL. So just follow me. The cool kids speak proper English. Not the lame "txt spk" kids do or the "1337 5p34k" either. Also that is a life tip for the younger ones playing. If you go to hit on a woman. Intelligence is much more valuable than that shit. (I mean, don't go rocket-sciency intelligence because the average high school girl will not give a rats ass about that and will look at you like you're weird. Even if you speak of Elon Musk. All the kids raving about environmentally friendly and all this liberal stuff. Yet don't even know who Elon Musk is or what he does. My coworkers don't care when I explain it out to them).
In post 321, CommKnight wrote:
- I've made a list of 2 people I won't lynch today due to probability (TODAY ONLY).
- I've TR'd two people.
- The other 8 people I'm up for lynching if there's a good case on them.
Had you previously stated the "today only" aspect of your probability thing?
Have you said who the TR's are?
Do you have any actual SR's yourself?
Are you aware of what the probability thing says to an observer who is outside the 3 people who get a free pass and the people you're directly arguing with?
Pedit: Yay, replacement!
I find it funny you ask me those things... since I'm literally the only person with an actual reads list in the game... that and I've stated those things multiple times. I mean heck, this is my 23rd post, so even ISO'ing me isn't so bad aside from my walls of text. (I'm going to build great walls... they're going to be great... the greatest you could say. I know people... important people... they'll help to ensure the USA pays for these walls. They're great people and I know them. Very important. Much Doge).
Is anyone allowed to ask why or are you wanting to engage Shannon herself?
Also, the likelyhood of mafia last game being mafia this game will actually probably be unlikely. So I'm pretty confident in the team being green this time around. But TB definitely rolled some of our bloc from last game as red this one. I'm willing to bet on it being FS of all people.
Look at that beaut. My first serious post of the day has an early reads list (and people have been getting antsy about it ever since.
In post 193, CommKnight wrote:My blocs went: Not lynching, slight-TR, Neutral, Suspicious.
As you can see, Umlaut falls on that bloc very easily.
I'm certainly not lynching anyone
today
that was scum last game,
because that is counter-intuitive. It is a gambler's bet. But it's a bet even you know is likely to be correct. Rolling something twice in a row is highly unlikely. Especially if we end up being in a 2 mafia vs 10 VT & 1 1-shot PR game.
Either way,
I'd be willing to roll the dice on either FireScreamer or Umlaut.
It's a hunch,
but it's more than likely a right one and they're gonna rip on me after the game for "getting lucky" if I'm correct. But we'll see.
And oh mah gawd. My next post literally has me saying I won't lynch them TODAY. Then I even went on to say my Umlaut/FS reads were a HUNCH. It's almost like these two posts everyone has gone crazy over... because they might be... RIGHT.
Anyway, I don't mean to be a sarcastic prick.. oh wait. Yes I do. (No I'm just being an ass because my ISO is a quick read when you read those two posts and then base everything since then from those.). Seriously though, think about how Umlaut and FS have reacted since and the wagon forming on me based on those two serious posts of the day. I mean I get I didn't have the BEST case on them at the time (there was nothing solid to go on back then). But now.. as stated in one of my latest posts.
In post 321, CommKnight wrote:Again, you're taking it too literally and skipping over the parts that help make it make sense. Not sure if intentional or if you're reading what you want to read into me.
- I've made a list of 2 people I won't lynch today due to probability (TODAY ONLY).
- I've TR'd two people.
- The other 8 people I'm up for lynching if there's a good case on them.
- Instead of building said case on them, you worry about defending FS. Which honestly started as a simple SR as scummy behaviour. But mixed with your defense of him. I'm willing to bet more on there being one scum in the two of you if you aren't both scum.
If you don't like my SR of yourself or FS, feel free to make a case for something. But worrying about me providing burden of proof (when there is none currently for anyone) is itself a fallacy. In fact, your entire thing and vote on me is that I don't have a solid case to vote FS. (Which shouldn't worry you unless you somehow know for certain he is town). Which I could argue the same back against you both. You got no real case. Just votes on me for voting FS and suspecting him. Which IS an OMGUS vote.
Back when I was going on about the probability numbers, you guys are soo worried I won't lynch into two other people (and myself included). I'm not enforcing this rule on others. But *I* won't vote in the pool. (Which of course I'm in the pool, I'm not going to vote myself. Herp a derp).
But yet you keep pushing this "Why won't you lynch X?" crud. Unless you got a case against either of them, then it's wise to drop it. Because why aren't YOU lynching X? Again, I have TWO people I'm not voting for DAY ONE. This is what you guys blew out of proportion because I said the random probability is lower on them being scum than others. Then you get antsy about a vote on FS. Again, unless you got some reason to solid TR him, you should want more information from the slot as well, should you not? Or are you going to claim mason buddies? Otherwise your defense of the slot as a townie makes zero sense. You should want to sort EVERYONE, but you're using past-game-confirmation-bias to be against my style of play while writing off the difference in FS now play compared to last game play.
Do I need to spell it out any clearer? So far you and FS have been the most scummy in my eyes and it's only getting worse. Want to prove me wrong? Then let us get more info, or you find a good case for me to look at. Because currently I only see the one valid case of your defense of FS and overreaction to initial reads. Part of it was gut, but now it's your guys' play thus far.
Fastposted by Umlaut. Well as I've stated in this post, it's leaving the probability phase and entering a more reaction phase. I had nothing solid to go on now, but now I believe I do. (Read the above paragraphs).
For real, read the first two posts I quoted of myself. Where in them did I say no one else could look into Frank or Blue Skies? I just said I wouldn't lynch them today based on probability. Which like the probability or not, or like the reasoning or not. It's my own train of thought and it is most likely right this game based on their overreaction to it thus far.
@Rory, the above was towards Dave, but I'm really interested on WHAT you support about my wagon. I just pointed out the two things people got all antsy over me for which can be reread in my VERY short ISO. So what do you agree with again? Because you're sliding down any chance of being TR'd for today. That's for sure. At least Daves isn't blindly following something they see as an easy mislynch. To me, you seem less interested in why the wagon is formed on me or even reason to vote me. Just you see something forming and voting it. Am I wrong?
Also, you never answered my question. When you play a game, do you avoid the PT area of the forum on your moderator account?
Thanks for answering. I was asking because I can't understand why anyone would be willing to vote on Titus' say-so right now. It sounds like you're saying it doesn't have much to do with Titus at all.
What do you find confusing about my test on Firebringer?
@FireScreamer
I think it's time to accept that Titus is not going to make herself any more transparent, at least not today. We can drop it or we can wagon her, but if there's a third option I haven't thought of it.
“There are two kinds of people in this world: those who say, ‘There are two kinds of people in this world: those who say there are two kinds of people in this world,
In post 1118, Umlaut wrote:@Brian Thanks for answering. I was asking because I can't understand why anyone would be willing to vote on Titus' say-so right now. It sounds like you're saying it doesn't have much to do with Titus at all.
What do you find confusing about my test on Firebringer?
Yeah, because it doesn't. I just wanted to let her know I still disagreed on Rory, but would help her with FS.
First of all, I don't really understand what point you're trying to make. And if it is what I think it is, then why are you using a reaction test on someone based on probability after spending the vast majority of this game getting on CK's case about it? It's incredibly hypocritical.
@Brian, I'm kinda on the fence on Umlaut. But consider this: Both FS and Umlaut have played in a way to keep me from sounding credible. In fact over half of either of their ISO's are either 1-2 liner fluff posts or trying to make me look bad.
Some town is buying into it, but they've only ever been pushing me.
Even if you dislike my probability theory, the fact remains it is probably right and if it is, then scum would definitely want the 3 people who were scum last game to hang this game just so they can buy themselves time. Which when they've been trying to control the wagons and every wagon offers little resistance compared to FS. Trying to get votes on FS is like pulling bloody teeth. Now, scum would be all too happy to get on a mislynch of this is what is was. That and funny how they suspect anyone who is suspicious of them. They've not really gone after dave, rory or anyone who didn't suspect them. Which means they also aren't taking risks. If they aren't taking risks, they are playing it safe. If they're playing it safe, we got scum.
Modded Open 691 (Mafia Win) Open 700 (Town Win)
Mini 1976 - Filled (Currently setting up)
In post 1120, CommKnight wrote:@Brian, I'm kinda on the fence on Umlaut. But consider this: Both FS and Umlaut have played in a way to keep me from sounding credible. In fact over half of either of their ISO's are either 1-2 liner fluff posts or trying to make me look bad.
Some town is buying into it, but they've only ever been pushing me.
Even if you dislike my probability theory, the fact remains it is probably right and if it is, then scum would definitely want the 3 people who were scum last game to hang this game just so they can buy themselves time. Which when they've been trying to control the wagons and every wagon offers little resistance compared to FS. Trying to get votes on FS is like pulling bloody teeth. Now, scum would be all too happy to get on a mislynch of this is what is was. That and funny how they suspect anyone who is suspicious of them. They've not really gone after dave, rory or anyone who didn't suspect them. Which means they also aren't taking risks. If they aren't taking risks, they are playing it safe. If they're playing it safe, we got scum.
You stop yourself from sounding credible. You don't need any help.
Citation: This post
In the dark, it's nearly invisible—until it exhales.
Thanks for answering. I was asking because I can't understand why anyone would be willing to vote on Titus' say-so right now. It sounds like you're saying it doesn't have much to do with Titus at all.
What do you find confusing about my test on Firebringer?
@FireScreamer
I think it's time to accept that Titus is not going to make herself any more transparent, at least not today. We can drop it or we can wagon her, but if there's a third option I haven't thought of it.
Don't tell me what my options are.
In the dark, it's nearly invisible—until it exhales.
@Alchemist, Gamma and Narna, what would it take to get you three to vote FS? We can't rely on the others because they've shown they will resist his wagon and if he flips red, we might be able to get two birds with one stone. If you can't help put him at L1, WHY is he town to you all? Look at his ISO, it's fluff, no cases built, nothing. He's relying on being "Town read" to get by. He's not actually trying to scum hunt.
Modded Open 691 (Mafia Win) Open 700 (Town Win)
Mini 1976 - Filled (Currently setting up)
