Open 680.1 C9++ | Endgame

[Titus]

I'd rather cut the crap and lynch Dave.

[Titus]

But not rb.

[ThinkBig]

Official Vote Count

Titus

(4): Almost50, Umlaut, davesaz, Brian Skies

davesaz

(3): FireScreamer, Gamma Emerald, Titus

Gamma Emerald

(3): RoryMK, Alchemist21, Narna

Almost50

(1): Firebringer

Alchemist21

(1): Green Crayons

Firebringer

(1): CommKnight

Not Voting

(0):

None.

With 13 alive, it takes 7 to lynch.

Deadline

: (expired on 2017-05-03 20:06:48)

[FireScreamer]

I'm not a super big fan of the fact that Gamma is on Dave when it comes to lynching dave before Gamma.

Not RB obviously.

[Firebringer]

Then a Titus wagon appeared suddenly.

[Firebringer]

Almost50 go into a scum slot.
Almost50 if you wish to make a case for why Shannon was town I'd like to hear it, or what your thoughts on everyone else is .

Prefer hearing thoughts on your own slot tbh

[Umlaut]

MATH POST AHOY

We already know there is no IC, which slightly raises the likelihood of any other town PR. This is accounted for in the numbers below.

Regarding the plausibility of Gamma's claim:

• The probability that the game contains a 1-shot roleblocker is ~4.4%.
  
• If there is a full roleblocker, that probability goes up to ~14%.
  
• There is still a ~28% chance of having a town roleblocker even if there is no town one-shot roleblocker.
  
• I don't know the base rate at which scum claim 1-shot blocker, but maybe someone who's played a lot of C9++ has an idea.
  
• Existence of a full roleblocker is the only thing that
  especially
  corroborates a one-shot roleblocker claim. (Existence of a Mafia roleblocker or godfather also makes a one-shot RB more likely, but only in the sense that it makes any town PR more likely.)

Conditional on the truth of Gamma's claim, these are the multiplicity distributions for each letter:

Spoiler: Here be tables

T count	Prob
0	1.960%
1	11.216%
2	26.472%
3	32.686%
4	21.517%
5	6.148%

C count	Prob
0	40.194%
1	39.968%
2	16.151%
3	3.323%
4	0.349%
5	0.015%

D count	Prob
0	55.439%
1	34.597%
2	8.761%
3	1.127%
4	0.074%
5	0.002%

V count	Prob
0	55.439%
1	34.597%
2	8.761%
3	1.127%
4	0.074%
5	0.002%

M count	Prob
0	87.812%
2	12.103%
4	0.084%
5	0.002%

B count	Prob
2	99.457%
4+	0.543%

Strongest immediate implications of the claim (aside from existence of a full blocker) are:

• The probability of a Mafia roleblocker increases, from ~73% to ~94%.
  
• The probability of only two mafia decreases, from ~27% to ~6.1%.
  
• The already-unlikely events of two cops (8.3%) and two vigs (2.9%) are further lowered, to 3.7% and 1.2% respectively.

[Alchemist21]

MATH POST AHOY

We already know there is no IC, which slightly raises the likelihood of any other town PR. This is accounted for in the numbers below.

Regarding the plausibility of Gamma's claim:

• The probability that the game contains a 1-shot roleblocker is ~4.4%.
  
• If there is a full roleblocker, that probability goes up to ~14%.
  
• There is still a ~28% chance of having a town roleblocker even if there is no town one-shot roleblocker.
  
• I don't know the base rate at which scum claim 1-shot blocker, but maybe someone who's played a lot of C9++ has an idea.
  
• Existence of a full roleblocker is the only thing that
  especially
  corroborates a one-shot roleblocker claim. (Existence of a Mafia roleblocker or godfather also makes a one-shot RB more likely, but only in the sense that it makes any town PR more likely.)

Conditional on the truth of Gamma's claim, these are the multiplicity distributions for each letter:

Spoiler: Here be tables

T count	Prob
0	1.960%
1	11.216%
2	26.472%
3	32.686%
4	21.517%
5	6.148%

C count	Prob
0	40.194%
1	39.968%
2	16.151%
3	3.323%
4	0.349%
5	0.015%

D count	Prob
0	55.439%
1	34.597%
2	8.761%
3	1.127%
4	0.074%
5	0.002%

V count	Prob
0	55.439%
1	34.597%
2	8.761%
3	1.127%
4	0.074%
5	0.002%

M count	Prob
0	87.812%
2	12.103%
4	0.084%
5	0.002%

B count	Prob
2	99.457%
4+	0.543%

Strongest immediate implications of the claim (aside from existence of a full blocker) are:

• The probability of a Mafia roleblocker increases, from ~73% to ~94%.
  
• The probability of only two mafia decreases, from ~27% to ~6.1%.
  
• The already-unlikely events of two cops (8.3%) and two vigs (2.9%) are further lowered, to 3.7% and 1.2% respectively.

Can you explain how the odds of the 1-shot rb existing are 4.4%?
I just assumed since it needs BB it would be (5/100)*(5/100) = .0025 = 0.25% odds.

[Almost50]

1- Because she had the same Role PM I have.
2- ISO me, I think I've stated some of my reads. Currently I'm pushing for a Titus lynch. This is NOT Town!Titus AT ALL!

[FireScreamer]

MATH POST AHOY

We already know there is no IC, which slightly raises the likelihood of any other town PR. This is accounted for in the numbers below.

Regarding the plausibility of Gamma's claim:

• The probability that the game contains a 1-shot roleblocker is ~4.4%.
  
• If there is a full roleblocker, that probability goes up to ~14%.
  
• There is still a ~28% chance of having a town roleblocker even if there is no town one-shot roleblocker.
  
• I don't know the base rate at which scum claim 1-shot blocker, but maybe someone who's played a lot of C9++ has an idea.
  
• Existence of a full roleblocker is the only thing that
  especially
  corroborates a one-shot roleblocker claim. (Existence of a Mafia roleblocker or godfather also makes a one-shot RB more likely, but only in the sense that it makes any town PR more likely.)

Conditional on the truth of Gamma's claim, these are the multiplicity distributions for each letter:

Spoiler: Here be tables

T count	Prob
0	1.960%
1	11.216%
2	26.472%
3	32.686%
4	21.517%
5	6.148%

C count	Prob
0	40.194%
1	39.968%
2	16.151%
3	3.323%
4	0.349%
5	0.015%

D count	Prob
0	55.439%
1	34.597%
2	8.761%
3	1.127%
4	0.074%
5	0.002%

V count	Prob
0	55.439%
1	34.597%
2	8.761%
3	1.127%
4	0.074%
5	0.002%

M count	Prob
0	87.812%
2	12.103%
4	0.084%
5	0.002%

B count	Prob
2	99.457%
4+	0.543%

Strongest immediate implications of the claim (aside from existence of a full blocker) are:

• The probability of a Mafia roleblocker increases, from ~73% to ~94%.
  
• The probability of only two mafia decreases, from ~27% to ~6.1%.
  
• The already-unlikely events of two cops (8.3%) and two vigs (2.9%) are further lowered, to 3.7% and 1.2% respectively.

Can you explain how the odds of the 1-shot rb existing are 4.4%?
I just assumed since it needs BB it would be (5/100)*(5/100) = .0025 = 0.25% odds.

It isnt 5/100. Its 7 shots at 5/100

[Brian Skies]

Almost50 if you wish to make a case for why Shannon was town I'd like to hear it

I don't know if you realize how stupid this is.

Also, not RB.

[Brian Skies]

Can you explain how the odds of the 1-shot rb existing are 4.4%?
I just assumed since it needs BB it would be (5/100)*(5/100) = .0025 = 0.25% odds.

I haven't done the math, but since 3 B's doesn't give a 1-shot roleblocker, you're adding the probability of getting exactly 2 B's + the probability of getting at least 4 B's.

[FireScreamer]

It really tickles me that we are back to claiming RB or not RB.

Day one ja vu

[Alchemist21]

Can you explain how the odds of the 1-shot rb existing are 4.4%?
I just assumed since it needs BB it would be (5/100)*(5/100) = .0025 = 0.25% odds.

I haven't done the math, but since 3 B's doesn't give a 1-shot roleblocker, you're adding the probability of getting exactly 2 B's + the probability of getting at least 4 B's.

The probability of getting 4 B's is so low that it doesn't add much to change the .25%.

I also don't see how Firescreamer's post helps trying to fix my math.

[Umlaut]

Can you explain how the odds of the 1-shot rb existing are 4.4%?
I just assumed since it needs BB it would be (5/100)*(5/100) = .0025 = 0.25% odds.

That's wrong for at least three reasons:

• What you gave is the probability that at least the
  first
  two letters are BB (or the 2nd and 5th, or some other specific choice of two), not that
  any
  two letters are BB.
  
• There is no 1-shot RB if there are exactly three Bs, so we have to do extra work to exclude that possibility.
  
• The absence of any town PR makes others more likely, so in particular knowing there's no IC makes 1-shot RB more likely.

I don't know if there's a clean, compact way to show the work on this; the program I'm using just sums over all

*checks*

512 possible setups that lack an IC.

[Brian Skies]

I think you should just ignore the math, in all honesty. Right now, you really just need to know that a 1-shot RB can't exist without a RB.

[FireScreamer]

Theres a 50% chance. We either have it or we don't.

[FireScreamer]

Can we get an explicit yes or no from Umlaut and Alchemist please.

[FireScreamer]

Also Umlaut since I am pretty explicitly softing at this point can you tell me the odds of BB if either 1 or 2 other non B letters are known.

[Green Crayons]

So back to Gamma boyz?

That's the opposite of what I'm saying. Or, at least, something like 130 degrees of what I'm saying.

[Green Crayons]

I think you should just ignore the math, in all honesty. Right now, you really just need to know that a 1-shot RB can't exist without a RB.

Agreed.

Also personally hurt that BSkies is ignoring me after he didn't agree to ignore me for our mental health.

[Green Crayons]

Also I know nobody cares but Alchemist still lied in his case on me, was called out on it, and then kinda just hoped nobody would pay attention because WORDS WORDS WORDS.

I chalk that up as scummy and because nobody listens to my tryhard cases, that's my lazy case.

[Green Crayons]

Also I'd prob vote dave over Titus and Rory for compromise.

[Brian Skies]

I did agree to ignore you for your mental health.

[Alchemist21]

Not RB.