Open 680.1 C9++ | Endgame
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Titus She/herMoon WalkerShe/her
- Moon Walker
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I'd rather cut the crap and lynch Dave.ShowThe scum had the misfortune of Titus being absurdly accurate on day one.Really quite impressed by that.~Drixx
You're letting Titus win the game by herself.Good luck now I guess.You have no chance to win.~Tywin
GTKTitus Part 2
Titus Academy
VLA Friday nights until Sunday morning.
All hail the Scum Empress!-
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Titus She/herMoon WalkerShe/her
- Moon Walker
- Moon Walker
- Posts: 80307
- Joined: May 3, 2013
- Pronoun: She/her
But not rb.ShowThe scum had the misfortune of Titus being absurdly accurate on day one.Really quite impressed by that.~Drixx
You're letting Titus win the game by herself.Good luck now I guess.You have no chance to win.~Tywin
GTKTitus Part 2
Titus Academy
VLA Friday nights until Sunday morning.
All hail the Scum Empress!-
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ThinkBig Jack of All Trades
- Jack of All Trades
- Jack of All Trades
- Posts: 5530
- Joined: September 11, 2016
Official Vote Count
Titus(4): Almost50, Umlaut, davesaz, Brian Skies
davesaz(3): FireScreamer, Gamma Emerald, Titus
Gamma Emerald(3): RoryMK, Alchemist21, Narna
Almost50(1): Firebringer
Alchemist21(1): Green Crayons
Firebringer(1): CommKnight
Not Voting(0):None.
With 13 alive, it takes 7 to lynch.
Deadline: (expired on 2017-05-03 20:06:48)I have officially retired this account. My new account is Virtuoso.-
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FireScreamer Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
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- Joined: February 5, 2017
- Location: Prestwick, United Kingdom
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Firebringer Trail Blazer
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- Joined: June 28, 2015
- Location: woofbringer
Then a Titus wagon appeared suddenly.Show"You are the Joker of mafia players" - Oversoul
"last time I was scum with Firebringer
his first post in the scum PT was "yes I rolled scum!"
I decided to post "haha just don't post that in the main thread", but to get up to date on the main thread first.
His first post in the main thread was "yes I rolled scum!" -popsofctown-
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Firebringer Trail Blazer
- Trail Blazer
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- Joined: June 28, 2015
- Location: woofbringer
Almost50 go into a scum slot.
Almost50 if you wish to make a case for why Shannon was town I'd like to hear it, or what your thoughts on everyone else is .
Prefer hearing thoughts on your own slot tbhShow"You are the Joker of mafia players" - Oversoul
"last time I was scum with Firebringer
his first post in the scum PT was "yes I rolled scum!"
I decided to post "haha just don't post that in the main thread", but to get up to date on the main thread first.
His first post in the main thread was "yes I rolled scum!" -popsofctown-
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Umlaut Jack of All Trades
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- Location: Somewhere out there
MATH POST AHOY
We already know there is no IC, which slightly raises the likelihood of any other town PR. This is accounted for in the numbers below.
Regarding the plausibility of Gamma's claim:- The probability that the game contains a 1-shot roleblocker is ~4.4%.
- If there is a full roleblocker, that probability goes up to ~14%.
- There is still a ~28% chance of having a town roleblocker even if there is no town one-shot roleblocker.
- I don't know the base rate at which scum claim 1-shot blocker, but maybe someone who's played a lot of C9++ has an idea.
- Existence of a full roleblocker is the only thing that especiallycorroborates a one-shot roleblocker claim. (Existence of a Mafia roleblocker or godfather also makes a one-shot RB more likely, but only in the sense that it makes any town PR more likely.)
Spoiler: Here be tables
Strongest immediate implications of the claim (aside from existence of a full blocker) are:- The probability of a Mafia roleblocker increases, from ~73% to ~94%.
- The probability of only two mafia decreases, from ~27% to ~6.1%.
- The already-unlikely events of two cops (8.3%) and two vigs (2.9%) are further lowered, to 3.7% and 1.2% respectively.
“There are two kinds of people in this world: those who say, ‘There are two kinds of people in this world: those who say there are two kinds of people in this world,and the other kind,’ and those whodon’tsay. Well, then there’s me.” — J.R. “Bob” Dobbs-
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Alchemist21 He/HimJack of All TradesHe/Him
- Jack of All Trades
- Jack of All Trades
- Posts: 8801
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- Pronoun: He/Him
- Location: North Carolina
Can you explain how the odds of the 1-shot rb existing are 4.4%?In post 1581, Umlaut wrote:MATH POST AHOY
We already know there is no IC, which slightly raises the likelihood of any other town PR. This is accounted for in the numbers below.
Regarding the plausibility of Gamma's claim:- The probability that the game contains a 1-shot roleblocker is ~4.4%.
- If there is a full roleblocker, that probability goes up to ~14%.
- There is still a ~28% chance of having a town roleblocker even if there is no town one-shot roleblocker.
- I don't know the base rate at which scum claim 1-shot blocker, but maybe someone who's played a lot of C9++ has an idea.
- Existence of a full roleblocker is the only thing that especiallycorroborates a one-shot roleblocker claim. (Existence of a Mafia roleblocker or godfather also makes a one-shot RB more likely, but only in the sense that it makes any town PR more likely.)
Spoiler: Here be tables
Strongest immediate implications of the claim (aside from existence of a full blocker) are:- The probability of a Mafia roleblocker increases, from ~73% to ~94%.
- The probability of only two mafia decreases, from ~27% to ~6.1%.
- The already-unlikely events of two cops (8.3%) and two vigs (2.9%) are further lowered, to 3.7% and 1.2% respectively.
I just assumed since it needs BB it would be (5/100)*(5/100) = .0025 = 0.25% odds.-
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Almost50 Monkey Business
- Monkey Business
- Monkey Business
- Posts: 27276
- Joined: November 13, 2015
- Location: Right here.
1- Because she had the same Role PM I have.
2- ISO me, I think I've stated some of my reads. Currently I'm pushing for a Titus lynch. This is NOT Town!Titus AT ALL!
Modded 2 Opens & 2 Large Themed games successfully.-
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FireScreamer Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Posts: 2414
- Joined: February 5, 2017
- Location: Prestwick, United Kingdom
It isnt 5/100. Its 7 shots at 5/100In post 1582, Alchemist21 wrote:
Can you explain how the odds of the 1-shot rb existing are 4.4%?In post 1581, Umlaut wrote:MATH POST AHOY
We already know there is no IC, which slightly raises the likelihood of any other town PR. This is accounted for in the numbers below.
Regarding the plausibility of Gamma's claim:- The probability that the game contains a 1-shot roleblocker is ~4.4%.
- If there is a full roleblocker, that probability goes up to ~14%.
- There is still a ~28% chance of having a town roleblocker even if there is no town one-shot roleblocker.
- I don't know the base rate at which scum claim 1-shot blocker, but maybe someone who's played a lot of C9++ has an idea.
- Existence of a full roleblocker is the only thing that especiallycorroborates a one-shot roleblocker claim. (Existence of a Mafia roleblocker or godfather also makes a one-shot RB more likely, but only in the sense that it makes any town PR more likely.)
Spoiler: Here be tables
Strongest immediate implications of the claim (aside from existence of a full blocker) are:- The probability of a Mafia roleblocker increases, from ~73% to ~94%.
- The probability of only two mafia decreases, from ~27% to ~6.1%.
- The already-unlikely events of two cops (8.3%) and two vigs (2.9%) are further lowered, to 3.7% and 1.2% respectively.
I just assumed since it needs BB it would be (5/100)*(5/100) = .0025 = 0.25% odds.In the dark, it's nearly invisible—until it exhales.-
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Brian Skies Survivor
- Survivor
- Survivor
- Posts: 10378
- Joined: August 9, 2013
- Location: Raining On Your Parade
I don't know if you realize how stupid this is.In post 1580, Firebringer wrote:Almost50 if you wish to make a case for why Shannon was town I'd like to hear it
Also, not RB.-
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Brian Skies Survivor
- Survivor
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- Posts: 10378
- Joined: August 9, 2013
- Location: Raining On Your Parade
I haven't done the math, but since 3 B's doesn't give a 1-shot roleblocker, you're adding the probability of getting exactly 2 B's + the probability of getting at least 4 B's.In post 1582, Alchemist21 wrote:Can you explain how the odds of the 1-shot rb existing are 4.4%?
I just assumed since it needs BB it would be (5/100)*(5/100) = .0025 = 0.25% odds.-
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FireScreamer Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Posts: 2414
- Joined: February 5, 2017
- Location: Prestwick, United Kingdom
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Alchemist21 He/HimJack of All TradesHe/Him
- Jack of All Trades
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- Posts: 8801
- Joined: September 5, 2014
- Pronoun: He/Him
- Location: North Carolina
The probability of getting 4 B's is so low that it doesn't add much to change the .25%.In post 1586, Brian Skies wrote:
I haven't done the math, but since 3 B's doesn't give a 1-shot roleblocker, you're adding the probability of getting exactly 2 B's + the probability of getting at least 4 B's.In post 1582, Alchemist21 wrote:Can you explain how the odds of the 1-shot rb existing are 4.4%?
I just assumed since it needs BB it would be (5/100)*(5/100) = .0025 = 0.25% odds.
I also don't see how Firescreamer's post helps trying to fix my math.-
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Umlaut Jack of All Trades
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That's wrong for at least three reasons:In post 1582, Alchemist21 wrote:Can you explain how the odds of the 1-shot rb existing are 4.4%?
I just assumed since it needs BB it would be (5/100)*(5/100) = .0025 = 0.25% odds.- What you gave is the probability that at least the firsttwo letters are BB (or the 2nd and 5th, or some other specific choice of two), not thatanytwo letters are BB.
- There is no 1-shot RB if there are exactly three Bs, so we have to do extra work to exclude that possibility.
- The absence of any town PR makes others more likely, so in particular knowing there's no IC makes 1-shot RB more likely.
*checks*512 possible setups that lack an IC.“There are two kinds of people in this world: those who say, ‘There are two kinds of people in this world: those who say there are two kinds of people in this world,and the other kind,’ and those whodon’tsay. Well, then there’s me.” — J.R. “Bob” Dobbs-
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Brian Skies Survivor
- Survivor
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- Posts: 10378
- Joined: August 9, 2013
- Location: Raining On Your Parade
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FireScreamer Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Posts: 2414
- Joined: February 5, 2017
- Location: Prestwick, United Kingdom
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FireScreamer Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Posts: 2414
- Joined: February 5, 2017
- Location: Prestwick, United Kingdom
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FireScreamer Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Posts: 2414
- Joined: February 5, 2017
- Location: Prestwick, United Kingdom
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Green Crayons Jack of All Trades
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- Joined: September 21, 2002
- Location: Richmond, VA
That's the opposite of what I'm saying. Or, at least, something like 130 degrees of what I'm saying.In post 1573, FireScreamer wrote:So back to Gamma boyz?"This Court has never held that the Constitution forbids the execution of a convicted defendant who has had a full and fair trial but is later able to convince a habeas court that he is 'actually' innocent." In re Davis, 557 U.S. 952, 955 (2009) (Scalia, J., dissenting).-
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Green Crayons Jack of All Trades
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Agreed.In post 1590, Brian Skies wrote:I think you should just ignore the math, in all honesty. Right now, you really just need to know that a 1-shot RB can't exist without a RB.
Also personally hurt that BSkies is ignoring me after he didn't agree to ignore me for our mental health."This Court has never held that the Constitution forbids the execution of a convicted defendant who has had a full and fair trial but is later able to convince a habeas court that he is 'actually' innocent." In re Davis, 557 U.S. 952, 955 (2009) (Scalia, J., dissenting).-
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Green Crayons Jack of All Trades
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Also I know nobody cares but Alchemist still lied in his case on me, was called out on it, and then kinda just hoped nobody would pay attention because WORDS WORDS WORDS.
I chalk that up as scummy and because nobody listens to my tryhard cases, that's my lazy case."This Court has never held that the Constitution forbids the execution of a convicted defendant who has had a full and fair trial but is later able to convince a habeas court that he is 'actually' innocent." In re Davis, 557 U.S. 952, 955 (2009) (Scalia, J., dissenting).-
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Green Crayons Jack of All Trades
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Also I'd prob vote dave over Titus and Rory for compromise."This Court has never held that the Constitution forbids the execution of a convicted defendant who has had a full and fair trial but is later able to convince a habeas court that he is 'actually' innocent." In re Davis, 557 U.S. 952, 955 (2009) (Scalia, J., dissenting).-
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Brian Skies Survivor
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- Location: Raining On Your Parade
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Alchemist21 He/HimJack of All TradesHe/Him
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- Location: North Carolina
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