Mini Normal 1917: :X Mafia (Game over!)

[CCC]

I did some homework!

One of TripleC's recent games was an 11 player game in which there was 3 scum.

Newbie games have nine players, two of whom are Mafia. Here we have eleven players.

Three mafia sounds about right to me.

Given that this is something they've been interested in trying to figure out as town before, the # of games they've played in general and the different numbering in said game, I'm leaning towards believing that the # of players line of questioning is genuine.
His tone as scum is a little more forced from what I saw in the one game I skimmed and I feel like he genuinely believes his reading for his scumread on Klick.
So, town for now.

Number of Mafia is an important question for me because I am a mathematician at heart. I know probability theory and a fair bit of C++.

Incidentally, if you're right about the three Mafia, and if I assume that all vote targets are completely randomly selected, then Town would have about a one-in-five chance of winning the game. But votes are

not

randomly selected, and PRs

do

have an effect, so... I'm not sure how useful that is.

(If you'd like, I can show the code I used to find that figure - I can do more relevant calculations as well, but I need something to calculate

from

, which I don't have much of yet).

[CCC]

okay okay so I have some good poe going
this should make the scum start showing
cheetory, accountant, klick, gamma, notsure as green
so that leaves 3/7 scum in {bigben, ccc, paul, backhand, raya, grendel, drk}, neat

Hmmmm. So, it's not that I've done anything that looks at all scummy, but because I'm not in the group that looks specifically Towny? I guess I can live with that.

Apart from myself - as I'm clearly Town - I do find one of your other reads a little odd - might I ask why you have Klick on the green side?

[CCC]

so here we see 8 posts in a catch up
not a single thing gamesolving or even advancing the thread, yup
I actually didn't notice how bad it was my first read
this is a gross as fuck entrance, votes we might need

How exactly is one supposed to 'advance the thread'? I gave what few reads I had - most people are still looking pretty neutral to me, what reads I have are very slight indeed - and tried to engage on a few of the topics presented for discussion. What else were you expecting from me?

[Backhand]

Did not like Accountant's calling out of VIs--those first few pages weren't that bad, and it seems like a way to set up discrediting people's opinions later.

If that was what I wanted to do it sure seems dumb that I'd also engage with them and try to understand their reads and thought process

And those few pages were bad, don't lie to yourself

PEdit: idk what to make of it

Not necessarily--you could be pretending to engage only to dismiss them later, especially if ScumAccountant didn't like where they were headed. But this is a molehill, not a mountain.

[Backhand]

You forgot about the super most important thing that's happened so far
the wagon on me!
No thoughts on anything that's happened around that?

Looks like a random wagon to me. You think you were in any danger?

[CCC]

Backhand - since you're here and catching up, what are your current reads on everyone?

[Cheetory6]

That's a weird dismissal of a significant portion of the game!
I don't think I was in danger, but it's probably more significant than Accountant calling people VIs which frankly feels a lot more "GOTCHA" than real analysis.

[Accountant]

The point about me calling VIs VIs is grasping at straws.

Backhand: Didn't most of the people voting Cheet give reasons, thus making it not random? They might not have been good reasons, but certainly they had non-random scumreads on him

[implosion]

Vote Count 1.3

Cheetory6 (2): DeathRowKitty, Klick
Gamma Emerald (1): Cheetory6
NotTheRealPaul (1): NotTheRealPaul
MuttonChopMagic (1): Grendel
DeathRowKitty (1): notsure
Grendel (1): MuttonChopMagic
Klick (1): CCC

Not Voting (5): bigbenwd, Raya36, Backhand, Gamma Emerald, Accountant


With 13 alive, it takes 7 votes to lynch.
Deadline is on Thursday, June 15th at 5:00 PM PST, in (expired on 2017-06-15 20:00:00).

[Backhand]

I think most of last night's discussion is hard to parse. A problem with theory discussion (not that I've never been guilty of doing it) is that people will generally be honest about their theory thoughts and even if you disagree, your feelings about RQS are probably not scum or town indicative.

As I said above though, CCC is pretty obviously town. Think Cheetory and DRK have done a good job of trying to move forward, slight townreads there.

Everyone else somewhere in the middle.

Leaning Scum:
MCM is obnoxious and going to be really hard to read, OMGUS voted grendel, we could do worse.
I agree accountant's VI post is more "gotcha" than real but it did ping me, I'm not forgetting about it.
Raya was a little on the defensive side, would like her to come back and catch up.

The more I reread MCM's stuff the less I like it. I don't believe that he believes that rqs is actually a scumtell.

Vote MCM

[Gamma Emerald]

Just as a general question for everyone - is having around one in three players Mafia a reasonable ratio?

Which, with thirteen players, would mean four Mafia?

Err I'd figure you'd been around the block enough to know the answer to this but ok

[Gamma Emerald]

I did some homework!

One of TripleC's recent games was an 11 player game in which there was 3 scum.

Newbie games have nine players, two of whom are Mafia. Here we have eleven players.

Three mafia sounds about right to me.

Given that this is something they've been interested in trying to figure out as town before, the # of games they've played in general and the different numbering in said game, I'm leaning towards believing that the # of players line of questioning is genuine.
His tone as scum is a little more forced from what I saw in the one game I skimmed and I feel like he genuinely believes his reading for his scumread on Klick.
So, town for now.

Eh it could be fake though
What other things do you find Town about CCC?

[Cheetory6]

Literally gave three reasons in the post.
Just saying "oh well could be fake" doesn't dismantle everything I'm saying there lol.
You can apply that argument to literally anything anyone ever says that isn't a literal scumclaim/mechanical guilty?

[Gamma Emerald]

I'm saying your read is on surface level stuff

[Cheetory6]

Oh okay ty.
I'll just throw out all my reads.
Let me know who I should townread or scumread gamma.

[NotTheRealPaul]

whats a VI?

[Gamma Emerald]

I'm not saying to throw out your reads. I'm saying to put forth more than just inductive reasoning.

[Gamma Emerald]

@Paul VI means village idiot, a term for a player who is Town but should be ignored. Sometimes scum will use it to discredit a player by saying their reads are bad.

[Cheetory6]

Does TripleC strike you as someone who would play those kind of mindgames as scum Gamma?
Because he doesn't to me.

I'm not going to hard-dive his meta for examples of what I saw as differences between his play here and his scumgame and make a full towncase on him unless he's up for lynch.
If you want to butt heads with me here you should be casing why he's scum, otherwise I don't see why you would want me to bother me over this, especially when the extent of your comments on him are just "i feel like you should know this", which I've already addressed in the post you're referencing given that he was just in a game with 11 players with 3 scum and most newbie games is 9 players with 2 scum, hence I can see him making the jump to 13 players with 4 scum.

[NotTheRealPaul]

Oh so a VI is pretty much me got it

also after looking back at it, my little scum read on accountant was just me being stupid. Agree with cheetory that he was being pretty tryhard so id say he is prob town rn.

[Gamma Emerald]

Does TripleC strike you as someone who would play those kind of mindgames as scum Gamma?
Because he doesn't to me.

I'm not going to hard-dive his meta for examples of what I saw as differences between his play here and his scumgame and make a full towncase on him unless he's up for lynch.
If you want to butt heads with me here you should be casing why he's scum, otherwise I don't see why you would want me to bother me over this, especially when the extent of your comments on him are just "i feel like you should know this", which I've already addressed in the post you're referencing given that he was just in a game with 11 players with 3 scum and most newbie games is 9 players with 2 scum, hence I can see him making the jump to 13 players with 4 scum.

It's not that tough of a mind game imo

[Cheetory6]

It's going to be hard for me to take this interaction seriously when you simplify what I'm saying to such a ridiculous level.
Do
you
think
that
CCC
the player
the person
is the kind of player who, as scum,
goes "I will fake not knowing how many people are on my team"?
Forget "is this hard to do".
I'm saying from what I've seen of him it does not seem

LIKELY

that this is the case.
And you're ignoring that to argue this really lame point of

"WELL IT'S POSSIBLE"

. Yeah, I get it. I just don't think it's likely.
Let me know when you have someone you want to push as scum if you want to talk about that, because this conversation is really dumb right now.

[Gamma Emerald]

Alright. I guess given what I've seen of him it may not be a thing he would do. I feel you've thought it through so I'll let it go.
I think I should reread to get some better reads since some people had been pinging me as Town on first glance.

[Accountant]

Why are you so insistent on inserting maybes in your entire exchange with Cheet gamma

"May" not be a thing he would do

[Gamma Emerald]

Because I'm trying to see just how much he had thought it through
He has thought it through sufficiently