Large Normal 204: BooneyToonz III - Calling All Cryptids!END

Theta Alpine · Post Post #1175 (ISO) » Mon Jun 05, 2017 6:44 am

i think by defending me he means pushing anyone except me
there is tunneling like gamma is doing where he will listen to other people
and then there is tunneling like fourtrouble is doing and bashing anyone who does not agree with him

penguinpower=null-scum
hey my first scum read
although honestly it is on a lurker
you have pretty much only been voting and pushing one person the entire game which i do not like
even though i have also only voted a single person through the game you have kept pushing transcend
saying you will change your mind
and then voting transcend again

and honestly this is why i read transcend as town-null instead of a flat out null
i think he would be a mislynch because of penguinpowers push on him

p-edit
i did not notice that at first but that kind of confirms what i have been starting to think
VOTE: fourtrouble
get caught by scum-slip scum

MuttonChopMagic · Post Post #1176 (ISO) » Mon Jun 05, 2017 6:55 am

that's not a slip
stop being dips

Lapsa · Post Post #1177 (ISO) » Mon Jun 05, 2017 6:56 am

In post 1164, FourTrouble wrote:
In post 1161, Lapsa wrote:I sort of agree idea that it won't yield much information
We shouldn't lynch based on how much information it'll give us. You win games by lynching the scum, not by having a few more pieces of information.

If information is your only concern with Theta, you're effectively telling the scum to post as little as possible, since that'd limit how much information their flips give. It's a bad precedent to set and one that doesn't win games. That said, if you want to know what information we'd get from Theta, there's more than it appears. It's clear that people are avoiding the lynch, and that they're pushing folks like Tchill/Lore/Transcend over Theta. There's a lot of information to gain from that.

okay okay...

VOTE: Theta Alpine

Gamma Emerald · Post Post #1178 (ISO) » Mon Jun 05, 2017 7:02 am

Lapsa that's terrible
FourTrouble is using terribly constructed logic to justify a vote on Theta
Pre-flip associations + lynching the wrong end of the association = most likely scum-led wagon

FourTrouble · Post Post #1179 (ISO) » Mon Jun 05, 2017 7:06 am

In post 1178, Gamma Emerald wrote:FourTrouble is using terribly constructed logic to justify a vote on Theta
Pre-flip associations + lynching the wrong end of the association = most likely scum-led wagon

Look at 912. That's why I'm lynching Theta. The associatives are corroborating evidence (i.e. meaningless by themselves, but in the context of Theta's other behaviors, evidence that increases Theta's likelihood to be scum).

FourTrouble · Post Post #1180 (ISO) » Mon Jun 05, 2017 7:07 am

And, no, I'm not lynching the "wrong end of the association." That's nonsense. The logic I've outlined points to lynching Theta first, not the other way around.

Gamma Emerald · Post Post #1181 (ISO) » Mon Jun 05, 2017 7:08 am

Why? You keep saying "if X is scum Theta is". Anyone of those you actually BELIEVE is scum? If so vote those first. If not you're fucking mafia and need to be lynched.

FourTrouble · Post Post #1182 (ISO) » Mon Jun 05, 2017 7:14 am

In post 1181, Gamma Emerald wrote:Why? You keep saying "if X is scum Theta is". Anyone of those you actually BELIEVE is scum? If so vote those first. If not you're fucking mafia and need to be lynched.

I explained this in 1128. The logic I'm using isn't about a single association, it's about aggregating the probability from multiple associatives that all point at Theta.

Lore · Post Post #1183 (ISO) » Mon Jun 05, 2017 7:21 am

In post 1182, FourTrouble wrote:
In post 1181, Gamma Emerald wrote:Why? You keep saying "if X is scum Theta is". Anyone of those you actually BELIEVE is scum? If so vote those first. If not you're fucking mafia and need to be lynched.
I explained this in 1128. The logic I'm using isn't about a single association, it's about aggregating the probability from multiple associatives that all point at Theta.

4t, i admit i am more onboard the tchill train than the theta train. i think that the association you listed made sense (i.e. why tchill would vote switch if they were both scum and wouldn't if he were scum and theta were town) though i still think the alternates (that both are town or that theta really is scum and tchill is town OR that tchill is just a very lazy player and has no idea what he is doing but believes the last person who said to do something) could also make sense and it is d1 so the associations make me nervous.

On the other hand, in that original post you mention other people are also linked to theta and thats where i start to lose track.

Do you think they are also linked to theta because they are pushing other votes? or is there similar scum tells i should be looking for? I tried to go back through but theta only has 13 posts and most of them seem pretty useless tbh... I am happy to re look, im just not sure what i should be looking for right now.

theta: that 4t vote doesn't look great on you considering that he has been pushing you for so long. I asked a single question about wording, i dont think that is enough to vote for him by any means, 4t has been pretty insightful this game, and though i dont trust anyones motivations 100% other than myself and lapsa, i think he has mostly been pretty town-thinking up until this point. If you have reasons for voting for him, i would like to see them laid out (like with quotes perhaps?) so that i can try to follow your logic.

MuttonChopMagic · Post Post #1184 (ISO) » Mon Jun 05, 2017 7:25 am

t chill is vi
you can tell tonally my guise
I'm not gonna tolerate an easy mislynch like that
it's complete and utter horse what
theta I think might be green too
but his wagon would be less poo

Lapsa · Post Post #1185 (ISO) » Mon Jun 05, 2017 7:30 am

btw, Transcend is scum

FourTrouble · Post Post #1186 (ISO) » Mon Jun 05, 2017 7:38 am

In post 1170, massive wrote:It's not that he "forgot" the confirmation. It's that he saw an easy wagon on someone he had zero reason to scumread, and hopped onto it for no reason other than to perpetuate the wagon. THAT is how scum vote. They don't have actual scumreads so they just have to go along with the flow, and he saw that quick succession of votes and decided to go along with it.

Or maybe he thought Lapsa was scummy. Tchill isn't the only person to "go along with the flow," so why are you singling him out?

FourTrouble · Post Post #1187 (ISO) » Mon Jun 05, 2017 7:39 am

In post 1170, massive wrote:I don't even think I've mentioned Theta, so please quote this?

You implied it by saying nothing about Theta while attacking my defense of Tchill, a defense that was tied to my wagon on Theta.

FourTrouble · Post Post #1188 (ISO) » Mon Jun 05, 2017 7:45 am

In post 1172, Lore wrote:This feels like nitpicking but.... why did you switch from referring to town as "town" and "they" to referring to scum as "scum" and "we"?

I like that you caught this. I don't have an answer to your question.

I recall using "we" in both sentences at first, then changing the first sentence because I didn't want to imply that Massive was town. I forgot about the second sentence. You could say I was concerned about implying that Massive was town but careless about implying he was scum.

FourTrouble · Post Post #1189 (ISO) » Mon Jun 05, 2017 7:47 am

You guys are focusing too much on the associations. That's not why I'm lynching Theta. The associations are corroborating evidence. They increase my confidence, and they provide reason to lynch Theta over other suspects, assuming all else is equal (which it's not, but I can understand why some of you might think that).

Lore · Post Post #1190 (ISO) » Mon Jun 05, 2017 7:49 am

In post 1189, FourTrouble wrote:You guys are focusing too much on the associations. That's not why I'm lynching Theta. The associations are corroborating evidence. They increase my confidence, and they provide reason to lynch Theta over other suspects, assuming all else is equal (which it's not, but I can understand why some of you might think that).

Fair enough.

I am under no delusions that a mutton vote would happen today regardless, despite how scummy i might read him

UNVOTE:

Right now i am between votes, rest assured i am rereading and will be re applying my vote before i go to bed tonight.

FourTrouble · Post Post #1191 (ISO) » Mon Jun 05, 2017 7:59 am

Let me explain how I'm using associatives, because apparently this sort of analysis is novel to ya'll. The weight of associative information points to Theta:

1. If Tchill is scum, so is Theta.

2. If Massive is scum, so is Theta.

3. If Transcend is scum, so is Theta.

4. If WhyMafia is scum, so is Theta.

5. If Gamma is scum, so is Theta.

6. If Texcat is scum, so is Theta.

7. If Ginn is scum, so is Theta.

If you don't understand one of these associations, I'd be happy to explain. To be clear, these associations don't tell us anything about the alignment of anyone but Theta. They don't tell you anything about the alignment of Tchill, Massive, Transcend, WhyMafia, Gamma, Texcat, or Ginn. But every association points to Theta. And that's telling, because it's likely there's scum among Tchill, Massive, Transcend, WhyMafia, Gamma, Texcat, and Ginn, at least one scum among them, so therefore it's likely that Theta is scum. This pattern -- and it's a scummy pattern -- shows up in most games. It almost always points to scum. I've seen it time and time again. I'm not using a single association to set up a lynching chain. I'm analyzing aggregate associatives to corroborate (not ground) my read on Theta.

If Theta is scum, we'll have to figure out who Theta's partners are. I haven't thought about who yet. Lapsa (and a few others) didn't want to lynch Theta because they were worried Theta's flip wouldn't give us information. In contrast, I'm confident that Theta's flip will give us valuable information, because there's lots of associative information to work with. I haven't sorted through the information yet. That's all I'm saying.

FourTrouble · Post Post #1192 (ISO) » Mon Jun 05, 2017 8:00 am

Lore's nitpicking in 1172 is town as fuck.

Lore · Post Post #1193 (ISO) » Mon Jun 05, 2017 8:09 am

thanks for laying that out 4t, that will give me something to look at more closely while i reread for my vote tonight.

MuttonChopMagic · Post Post #1194 (ISO) » Mon Jun 05, 2017 8:09 am

In post 1191, FourTrouble wrote:Let me explain how I'm using associatives, because apparently this sort of analysis is novel to ya'll. The weight of associative information points to Theta:

1. If Tchill is scum, so is Theta.

2. If Massive is scum, so is Theta.

3. If Transcend is scum, so is Theta.

4. If WhyMafia is scum, so is Theta.

5. If Gamma is scum, so is Theta.

6. If Texcat is scum, so is Theta.

7. If Ginn is scum, so is Theta.

If you don't understand one of these associations, I'd be happy to explain. To be clear, these associations don't tell us anything about the alignment of anyone but Theta. They don't tell you anything about the alignment of Tchill, Massive, Transcend, WhyMafia, Gamma, Texcat, or Ginn. But every association points to Theta. And that's telling, because it's likely there's scum among Tchill, Massive, Transcend, WhyMafia, Gamma, Texcat, and Ginn, at least one scum among them, so therefore it's likely that Theta is scum. This pattern -- and it's a scummy pattern -- shows up in most games. It almost always points to scum. I've seen it time and time again. I'm not using a single association to set up a lynching chain. I'm analyzing aggregate associatives to corroborate (not ground) my read on Theta.

If Theta is scum, we'll have to figure out who Theta's partners are. I haven't thought about who yet. Lapsa (and a few others) didn't want to lynch Theta because they were worried Theta's flip wouldn't give us information. In contrast, I'm confident that Theta's flip will give us valuable information, because there's lots of associative information to work with. I haven't sorted through the information yet. That's all I'm saying.

um, no?

In post 1192, FourTrouble wrote:Lore's nitpicking in 1172 is town as fuck.

um, no tho?

Ginngie · Post Post #1195 (ISO) » Mon Jun 05, 2017 8:10 am

>_>

I mean you've been playing since 2012 so you got a metric ton more games than me, but when have you actually used that; and if so successfully?

texcat · Post Post #1196 (ISO) » Mon Jun 05, 2017 8:10 am

Spoiler: FourT asks a lot of questions

But I'm not sure I've seen him do much with any answers. Does he always do this? Is this just a style issue?

FourTrouble wrote:Let me explain how I'm using associatives, because apparently this sort of analysis is novel to ya'll. The weight of associative information points to Theta:

1. If Tchill is scum, so is Theta.

2. If Massive is scum, so is Theta.

3. If Transcend is scum, so is Theta.

4. If WhyMafia is scum, so is Theta.

5. If Gamma is scum, so is Theta.

6. If Texcat is scum, so is Theta.

7. If Ginn is scum, so is Theta.

If you don't understand one of these associations, I'd be happy to explain. To be clear, these associations don't tell us anything about the alignment of anyone but Theta. They don't tell you anything about the alignment of Tchill, Massive, Transcend, WhyMafia, Gamma, Texcat, or Ginn. But every association points to Theta. And that's telling, because it's likely there's scum among Tchill, Massive, Transcend, WhyMafia, Gamma, Texcat, and Ginn, at least one scum among them, so therefore it's likely that Theta is scum. This pattern -- and it's a scummy pattern -- shows up in most games. It almost always points to scum. I've seen it time and time again. I'm not using a single association to set up a lynching chain. I'm analyzing aggregate associatives to corroborate (not ground) my read on Theta.

If Theta is scum, we'll have to figure out who Theta's partners are. I haven't thought about who yet. Lapsa (and a few others) didn't want to lynch Theta because they were worried Theta's flip wouldn't give us information. In contrast, I'm confident that Theta's flip will give us valuable information, because there's lots of associative information to work with. I haven't sorted through the information yet. That's all I'm saying.

Are you just listing the people who don't like your case on Theta? Doesn't that say more about your case than it does about Theta or those on your list?

FourTrouble · Post Post #1197 (ISO) » Mon Jun 05, 2017 8:13 am

In post 1195, Ginngie wrote:>_>

I mean you've been playing since 2012 so you got a metric ton more games than me, but when have you actually used that; and if so successfully?

Not only have I used it successfully but most of the best townies I've seen or played with use it as well. Who do you consider the best townies on mafiascum? I'd bet they've used this type of analysis, or would support it if they haven't. Again, it's not something you'd ground your reads in, but it's strong corroborating evidence for a read you've already developed in other ways.

FourTrouble · Post Post #1198 (ISO) » Mon Jun 05, 2017 8:15 am

In post 1196, texcat wrote:Are you just listing the people who don't like your case on Theta? Doesn't that say more about your case than it does about Theta or those on your list?

No. It includes the two people who followed my reasoning immediately (Tchill, WhyMafia). It also includes people who aren't taking a position on Theta or are subtly defending (e.g. Massive's implied defense of Theta by attacking my defense of Tchill).

FourTrouble · Post Post #1199 (ISO) » Mon Jun 05, 2017 8:17 am

I've been asking more questions than I usually do because I've had more questions than usual. I'd say that's partly the result of getting acclimated to the meta here (it's changed since my last games here, in 2013/2014/2015), and partly the result of unexplained reads and overall laziness from lots of players.