Open 688: Diffusion of Power (Game Over)

[Vedith]

He obviously means he town read C Sheep.

[Kelvin Smith]

I just looked back and literally the entire playerlist has replaced out. wtf

Im really tempted to /out myself this game pisses me off

what are the chances scum are in the inactive pool? Like srsly I think its a good possibility. Like why not just sit back and let town tear itself apart. Or just go conpletely inactive since town is already super inactive

Please don't. You're the only active person who seems to understand that Math needs to die.

[Kelvin Smith]

You'd have every reason to mislynch me because confirmed Town going into LyLO isn't something scum want.

You're not confirmed town and never will be. It would take three Cops to claim an Innocent on you for you to be confirmed. Or a Cop to claim an innocent on you and then die.

I'll humor your town claim for a second though. Pretend I'm town for a second and let's have a civilized talk about why lynching you would be a bad idea and what some better alternatives would be and why.

There's logically confirmed and practically obvtown. If someone cops someone else and says inno, it screams lynch me before anyone else.

And Math is neither logically confirmed or practically obvtown, so let's lynch them already.

[Kelvin Smith]

@Kelvin

So much wrong so little time to address it.

Funny, I was thinking the same thing.

Like first we already have mass claimed.

Yeah, we massclaimed role, but not Day. We could actually coordinate some shit with a full massclaim. But that's probably best saved for later

Second Mafia is all about making judgment calls.

I mean, that's one way to play it. Usually a bad way, in my opinion, because human beings are fucking shit at making judgment calls.

Third as scum I can easily snowball you I did it in the other game with you. Only reason I got caught was I fucked up the last NK due to starting my job.

If you say so.

Like this conversation isn't heated at all. I am just playing.

That's arguable. We're both throwing some pretty hard accusations at each other. I know yours are completely unfounded and if you are somehow town, you know that mine are too. If we were both clearheaded town, then our conversation wouldn't have to be so accusatory.

See, one reason that I don't think you're town here is because you aren't even trying to actually figure out this situation, you're just being obstinate like in Shaz Mafia when you continued your bad attacks on Titus, rather than readjusting. I'm guessing you're feeling trapped into this current direction for some reason.

[Kelvin Smith]

Scum have to kill me or Titus period. Titus and I will wreck this game for scum otherwise.

They can't kill Titus because likely doc. So scum have to go for me or pretty much just gg no re.

Let's not do scum's job for them.

Even if that were true, which I honestly doubt, then they'd still obviously pick Titus over you. There's no good reason to kill you, period. Titus is cleared only by you. There's no good reason for a Doc to protect her right now. Especially with how much heat I'm putting on you and how much flailing you're doing.

And this Titus buddying is really starting to make me think that she really is town and you're just trying to stroke her ego to get her to believe in you over me.

Oh, and to your earlier comment about lynching an outted Cop always being a bad play, that's such absolute crap. Even in a game with a claimed full Cop, there are sometimes points where a Cop lynch is an acceptable play, so don't lie and pretend that's not the case. And it's even more true in a setup where Cops are plentiful. Even if your claim was true, which I really doubt at this point, you yield no mechanical value for town anymore and are utterly lynchable.

This is true but healing me is good from town Math perspective bad from scum them.

Lynch the cop day before lylo if it's a problem. That's when to do that. Otherwise, scum's problem.

I also am not voting you either bc I think the rage quit was town. Docs are the superior play.

This is the Day before MyLo, so let's do it.

10 people alive. If we mislynch today and don't protect tonight, we go to 8, 3 of which are scum. We lynch wrong and don't protect, we lose. Unless we No Lynch today, which seems foolish, this is likely as close as we're going to get to the Day before LyLo. Just please, work with me on this one.

[Kelvin Smith]

You'd have every reason to mislynch me because confirmed Town going into LyLO isn't something scum want.

You're not confirmed town and never will be. It would take three Cops to claim an Innocent on you for you to be confirmed. Or a Cop to claim an innocent on you and then die.

I'll humor your town claim for a second though. Pretend I'm town for a second and let's have a civilized talk about why lynching you would be a bad idea and what some better alternatives would be and why.

There's logically confirmed and practically obvtown. If someone cops someone else and says inno, it screams lynch me before anyone else.

No..It doesn't.

Like wtf?

Yeah it does. You're wearing a huge sign that says lynch me before Titus. Unless I obvtown, people will want your head. Just sad facts.

You could "obvtown" and I'd still want their head. I've found that "obvtown" are just about as likely to be scum as they are to be town. See: Pretty much any game I've played since coming back to this site.

[Kelvin Smith]

This game... these players...

What about them? Help me lynch Math, bro.

[Vedith]

What about them? Help me lynch Math, bro.

You need to explain your plan here.

Let me give you a scenerio which is a possible out come.

We lynch Math - Math flips town.
Titus is confirmed

Scum night kill one of the cops

5v3 - LyLo with not lynching the person we wouldn't be lynching anyway.

Then where do you go? On Docs? No, because that's shooting in the dark, right?

Your "plan" has a flaw in it.

Keep in ind, this is just 1 situation, I am not calling Math and Titus town.

[Kelvin Smith]

What about them? Help me lynch Math, bro.

You need to explain your plan here.

Let me give you a scenerio which is a possible out come.

We lynch Math - Math flips town.
Titus is confirmed

Scum night kill one of the cops

5v3 - LyLo with not lynching the person we wouldn't be lynching anyway.

Then where do you go? On Docs? No, because that's shooting in the dark, right?

Your "plan" has a flaw in it.

Keep in ind, this is just 1 situation, I am not calling Math and Titus town.

What do you think the Cops are for, man? They're for investigating. If Docs successfully protect N3, we can afford a lynch. If not, we NL and move into LyLo with potential Cop data from Night 4.

On the other hand, if Math flips scum (which I think they very likely will), we create breathing room and Titus becomes someone worth scrutinizing further. On ttop of that, more time for Docs to potentially protect and Cops to potentially find something useful.

On the other hand, tell me what lynching any given Doctor gives us that lynching Math doesn't. Again, unless all 3 scum are somehow in Doctors, then scum are definitely in the Cops too. And if each group currently has 5 members, then the only major difference between them is which one has more Mafia, as one group has 1 and one group has 2, but we don't know which is which. It ultimately comes down to the true size of the initial Doc and Cop pool, but only scum know that, so we can't really se that in our decision-making.

Sure, we could just lynch based on our reads, but people all have different reads. And they can be (and often are) remarkably wrong, while still maintaining undue confidence about the strength of their reads. Personally, I'd rather not leave it to that, because we're in a setup where we can actually attempt to strategize.

Thinking about it, one thing we might want to also consider is a fullclaim from just the Doctors. I'm not saying we should do it, but we should discuss it. Scum could have a hard time acting on that information, because they'd likely want to focus their efforts on the more dangerous cops.

I'm dead tired, so I'm going to bed, but lets talk more about this in the coming days.

[Navy]

yo.

[Vedith]

Okay, let me explain why it doesn't matter if we have docs.

The only 2 docs that might have their power is you and Titus.

And I don't think Titus is town.
So that leaves your slot, and right now I don't feel confident in you making a pro save (if you even have night 3) given how you are so up for a lynch on Math while saying that you haven't read the game.

I don't think you and Titus should full claim.
It gives scum a good idea where to kill.

And lynching doc means that we are lynching where scum is 100%. Although highly expected, you can't confirm that there are scum in the cop claims.
Even if we did mis lynch (Navy isn't a mis lynch) we narrow down scum in that pool. We can look at who's voted which doctors, and who's defered from the other doctors.

You say that I'm just shooting in the dark... You want to lynch Math for the only reason of Math claimed to have checked Titus, not because Math is scum.

But at this stage I'm just going round and round and obviously everyone (even myself) has already set their opinions and don't really care about other opinions.

So I think I've said enough on the topic.
If anyone has any questions from what I haven't already covered, ask.

[NJAC]

Still reading...

[NotTheRealPaul]

tr'd coop sorry lol

[Almost50]

VC 3.05

Mathblade

(3): itlepip, NotTheRealPaul, Kelvin Smith,

Kelvin Smith

(2): Mathblade, Vedith,

Not Voting

(5): NJAC, Navy, alban, Agent Sparkles, Titus,
With 10 alive, it takes 6 to lynch.
*Agent Sparkles V/LA

Deadline

: (expired on 2017-07-07 21:50:00)

[Titus]

What about them? Help me lynch Math, bro.

You need to explain your plan here.

Let me give you a scenerio which is a possible out come.

We lynch Math - Math flips town.
Titus is confirmed

Scum night kill one of the cops

5v3 - LyLo with not lynching the person we wouldn't be lynching anyway.

Then where do you go? On Docs? No, because that's shooting in the dark, right?

Your "plan" has a flaw in it.

Keep in ind, this is just 1 situation, I am not calling Math and Titus town.

Why wouldn't scum kill me?

[Titus]

@Kelvin,

Look, let's be frank here. I don't think either you or Math is scum. I think you're both being stubborn. I'd still lynch you over Math because Math can never vote me and does nothing for PoE.

Creature was the first death after massclaim. Let's just lynch whichever n1 doctor didn't heal Creature and is not you.

[Vedith]

Why wouldn't scum kill me?

Because killing cops are more of a priority than you.
Even more so in a game that isn't progressing.

[NotTheRealPaul]

Why wouldn't scum kill me?

Because killing cops are more of a priority than you.
Even more so in a game that isn't progressing.

Agreed

Titus isnt scums target at all. Hell ur not even conftown so why would they shoot u. If we lynch math and he flips town then u mght become a target. However their seems to be a lot of resistance to a math wagon, although its probably because there are so many inactives

[Titus]

@NotPaul, There's more resistance to PoEing doctors than a Math lynch.

[alban]

Could someone list the claims in the order in which they were posted?
Also, did Math claim to investigate Titus and what did they find?

[alban]

Titus, I think the town as well as the wolves posing as sheep are rounding around to lynch you.
The best move now would be to stop engaging with people and start giving a defense.
If you are town, maybe your playstyle is making you a target here. If that's the case, change the style. You are likely to derive more support that way I believe. I am conflicted about you and I don't want another mislynch, hence this suggestion.

[Vedith]

No current player in the game are saying to lynch Titus.

[alban]

Why did you change your stand regarding Titus?

[Titus]

Why did you change your stand regarding Titus?

I can only be scum if Math is.

This seems awfully derp clear straining. Like how could anyone read and not know that?

Also, why are you trying to put me on the defensive? O.o

[Kelvin Smith]

Okay, let me explain why it doesn't matter if we have docs.

The only 2 docs that might have their power is you and Titus.

See, nobody told me that. And unless the other Doc claims have already claimed their Night, how could you possibly know that?

Spoiler: Regarding Doc Protection

And I don't think Titus is town.
So that leaves your slot, and right now I don't feel confident in you making a pro save (if you even have night 3) given how you are so up for a lynch on Math while saying that you haven't read the game.

I don't have confidence that any Doc will ever successfully stop any kill. That's not the function of a Doc, in my opinion. I believe that the fear of a Doc on the most townie players can and should cause reasonable scum to make more suboptimal NKs, because they don't want to risk losing the game taking a shot at a player that has a good chance of being protected.

Hell, sometimes scum even make no NK because a protective role exists and they want to try to use that strategically. Either way, that psychological advantage of potentially changing scum's play to something suboptimal is what truly gives protective roles (and arguably most PRs) their power, not some uninformed chance to

maybe

have something useful happen if they are lucky.

Spoiler: Regarding the 100% Doc Pool

I don't think you and Titus should full claim.
It gives scum a good idea where to kill.

I'll agree with this, if there is truly evidence that only Titus and I can possibly still have the ability to protect.

And lynching doc means that we are lynching where scum is 100%. Although highly expected, you can't confirm that there are scum in the cop claims.
Even if we did mis lynch (Navy isn't a mis lynch) we narrow down scum in that pool. We can look at who's voted which doctors, and who's defered from the other doctors.

First off, forgive me if I don't but into your Navy read. If it was that compelling, I'd expect a lot more support of it. And even then, I'd probably be opposed, because this is still probably strategically the best time to lynch Math.

Second, who cars if we can't confirm that scum are in the Cops? It's logically unlikely and improbable that all three scum are Doctor claims. I mean, even say we did manage to lynch scum in the Doc pool, then what would you do? Now you'd be back to not having any information because you used bad math to shoot in the Doc pool.

The thing is, we don't know where the fakeclaims are.

But if my theory is correct and they have a preference for Cops over Docs, then that means there are 2/5 chance of hitting scum in Cops, 1/5 chance of hitting scum in Docs.
If the theory that all scum are in Docs is correct, then it's 3/5 in Docs, 0/5 in Cops.
If there are two fakeDocs and one fakeCop, then it's 2/5 in Docs, 1/5 in Cops.

As you can see, there are indeed more potential scenarios where scum are easier to hit in Docs than Cops. But you're making the mistake that because we

know

that there is a chance that all 3 Cops are in Docs, rather than in Cops, that somehow makes that scenario more

probable

to have occurred.

At the end of the Day, the only number that had any affect on where scum claimed was the original distribution of Cops and Docs. These are the true numbers we should be considering:

In a setup of 6/4 Cops to Docs, they would be most likely to either go with 1 Cop claim and 2 Doc claims or with 3 Doc claims. Of the two, 1/2 is far more likely than 0/3, because having Cops gives more sway and versatility. On top of which, going 0/3 means they would miss out on the opportunity to manipulate the town with any potential fakeCop shenanigans. Considering we have 7 claimed Doctors, only 0/3 is possible in this setup, therefore it would've been a terrible play.

In a setup of 5/5, they would likely either go 2/1 or 1/2. Again, 2/1 is the more likely, due to the usefulness yielded. Since 2/1 is the more optimal play here, yet we have 7 Doc claims, that means this setup is also unlikely, though less unlikely than the previously mentioned 6/4 setup.

In a setup of 4/6, they would likely either go 2/1 or 3/0. While 3/0 is certainly very versatile, then they'd be putting all of their eggs in one basket and depriving themselves of any potential town manipulation that might be able to get from a fakeDoc claim. This is the setup that gives scum the best possible results, given our current gamestate of 7 claimed Doctors.

So while more situations

currently

exist where fakeDocs outnumber fakeCops, those situations were more suboptimal for scum when they picked their claims, and therefore, less likely.

Spoiler: Regarding Shooting in the Dark

You say that I'm just shooting in the dark... You want to lynch Math for the only reason of Math claimed to have checked Titus, not because Math is scum.

Have you even read what I've been saying? I've said that I strongly believe that Math is scum right now.

Also, even if it wasn't the case that I thought Math was scum, lynching them to clear Titus has the potential to make our Doc lynch pool smaller. I'm getting really tired of having to list out scenarios, but it's like this:

If Math flips scum, we have killed scum and everyone is happy. On top of that, Titus becomes a person of interest worth investigating by Cops.

If Math flips town, we know Titus is town. That means that our Doc lynchpool shrinks to 4 (3, from my perspective). And if Titus survives the Night, we'll have conftown to work with.

As it stands now, if we mislynch a Doctor, our Doc lynchpool will also shrink to 4, but we'll have no conftown.

Spoiler: Regarding Opinions and Stubbornness

But at this stage I'm just going round and round and obviously everyone (even myself) has already set their opinions and don't really care about other opinions.

Yeah, that's literally my whole point on why Mafia is a generally bad game and nobody is good at it (myself included). If everyone is just sitting around only caring about their own opinions, then it shouldn't be called Mafia, it should be called Confirmation Bias: The Game. Objectively, everybody who hasn't correctly called the scumteam is wrong. But nobody thinks they are the one who is wrong, so everybody is willing to lose the fucking game to prove their pet ideas correct. That's why I'm trying to look at this from a perspective of strategy first, that way everybody's biases don't cloud judgement.

From what I can tell, strategically, Math is a good choice. Math is a spent Cop, little more than a VT at this point. Their death confirms Titus and their continued life casts nothing but a shadow of doubt on the game. In addition, to that, I personally feel that they are scum, due to their flailing, unreasonable reaction to my idea. I came to the strategic conclusion first, then the scumread second. I try not to put much stock in my scumreads though, because I am usually, though not always, wrong about them. But when both my strategy and my gut agree, I'm really going to want to make a lynch. That's why I'm asking people to point out holes in my strategy.

So I think I've said enough on the topic.
If anyone has any questions from what I haven't already covered, ask.

Hopefully what I've just said here has given you some food for thought. I'm annoyed to have had to written such a long post, but at this point, I don't see us winning otherwise.