Open 688: Diffusion of Power (Game Over)

[Kelvin Smith]

I just can feel it
Also I'm still hell bent on ASslot being mafia for things during d2

Feelings are trash. Half of the people in this game "feel" that someone is some alignment that they probably aren't. Hell, I don't even completely trust my feelings on Math, and those are ridiculously strong. That's because confirmation bias is the enemy of rational thought.

What about AS Day 2 makes you think the slot if scum? And you realize you've basically described confirmation bias, right?

[alban]

-I don't think Titus is scum.
-I'm town.
-I believe you're town, Kelvin.

So assuming navy flips town, yes Alban is in fact confirmed scum. If he doesn't then Alban is town.

But Titus's reads are blinkering hard rn

So there's that.

So, his reasons for me being scum are that someone else is town. That's a weak reasoning. If he's doing that, that's nowhere close to a confirmation. How can a seasoned player like you not see that? Instead of being charmed with his entry like you have been, you should ask him questions such as why does he townread you. This is important since the whole premise of declaring me scum is based on 3-4 of you being town, you all should question him. I was his scum!partner and the only way you ride that tide is by questioning him. He's a bully and doesn't like resistance. If you are gonna be meek and go ahead with his plan, you are gonna be doomed. As a town, he is not effective coz he gets lynched/nk'd. As a scum he is very effective coz he brings a fascist vibe to the game which turns everyone into sheeps. If he is a town, you should never listen to RC. Coz he goes by instincts. If he is a scum, you should never listen to him. Coz he will swoop in on any display of weakness and turn the sheeps against any resistance. Never listen to him. Period.

I'd first like to point out that despite my join date, I'm not a seasoned player. I played for maybe 6 months in 2011 and I've been back for maybe 3 months.

That's also not super weak reasoning, it's process of elimnation. Granted, it's PoE based on reads, which are inherently inaccurate. But even though reads are bad and usually wrong, it doesn't change the fact that most Mafia players swear by it.

If from his perspective, he, Titus, and I, then either you or Navy must be scum. Like, that's just a fact if his assumption is true (which I'm not saying it is). I said that I do not support calling you confirmed scum and I'm not prepared to call any other players confirmed anything (even Math isn't confirmed scum). But regardless, he is a player that I believe can help me get results, so I'm more than willing to work with him for as long as that remains true.

That said, I'm not willing to let him treat you or any other player unfairly. If his argument is compelling and/or I can't find a more strategic way to do things, then I may go along with him at times, but I will personally never be party to him dictating the entire course of the game. I'm not going to be meek and I'm not going to be bullied. Not by him, not by anybody.

As for asking him why he townreads me, I'd have to ask that of every player. The majority of players townread me and I can understand it to a degree, because I've been on a real roll this game. I don't have any actual desire to question him or anyone on their reads though, since I don't care about reads, since they're dumb. The nature of this setup makes it mostly solvable through a combination of good strategy and probability, so it's one of the few games where I don't have to concern myself with other people's biases and faulty thinking.

I think that you're saying some really harsh stuff about RC. To me it seems that regardless of alignment, he has a way of getting people to do things. You might call it bullying or fascism, but I don't think that's a completely fair assessment. He's got no formal authority, so he's not a dictator. And while he's probably a bit too forceful, he's not unlikable. I'm not sure how willing he is to compromise, but based on how he dealt with Titus, I'd say that his willingness to cooperate is at least decent. Titus was the inflexible one in that exchange, while RC was willing to concede more than I think even I would have. But that's just my assessment having never played with him before.

It looks bad on you coz now you are contradicting yourself.

If RC's whole argument of why he finds me scum is based on PoE -> which is based on his reads -> which you do not believe in principle, how does strategy or the capacity of bringing in results help town!you? The whole premise should be built on falsity according to you. I don't understand your U-turn regarding this.

"As for asking him why he townreads me, I'd have to ask that of every player":
Yes you should, but then no one is actually using their townread of you to suspect others, whereas RC is doing exactly that. If the whole case against a player like me is based on someone clearing you, the least you could do is inquire with that person why they are townreading you.

Also, I don't think you are as widely townread as you may think.

"I think that you're saying some really harsh stuff about RC":
Yes. But that doesn't make it baseless. In any case, my assessment of him is not important. Since you haven't played with him before, which I kind of guessed, it was worth warning you. As long as you are aware of the dangers of buddying with RC, you will be fine. RC is a tour de force, but his high skillset is not impenetrable. He has great motivational skills, but he is low on logic. So, if you ask him certain kind of questions, he will be in a tight spot. Of course, he will turn it around, but since you seem like a player who believes in logic and strategy, you would know that he is evading. I don't have the thick skin required to do this coz I get riled up easily as you experienced yourself a while back. But someone with a thicker skin should be doing that.

[Gamma Emerald]

I just can feel it
Also I'm still hell bent on ASslot being mafia for things during d2

Feelings are trash. Half of the people in this game "feel" that someone is some alignment that they probably aren't. Hell, I don't even completely trust my feelings on Math, and those are ridiculously strong. That's because confirmation bias is the enemy of rational thought.

What about AS Day 2 makes you think the slot if scum? And you realize you've basically described confirmation bias, right?

The d2 thing is AS bullshitting through having made the slip of calling one of the pairs of CS+me/alban+creature town with lies and misdirection. I saw the error, pushed it, AS backs out of it while using the backing out to shade me.

[alban]

Gamma, vote for RC.

Mod, don't replace me.

This is becoming a joke now. Sorry about that. I have difficulty controlling myself and quite often say or do things on the spur of the moment

[Kelvin Smith]

It looks bad on you coz now you are contradicting yourself.

I highly doubt that.

If RC's whole argument of why he finds me scum is based on PoE -> which is based on his reads -> which you do not believe in principle, how does strategy or the capacity of bringing in results help town!you? The whole premise should be built on falsity according to you. I don't understand your U-turn regarding this.

What? I didn't say I agreed with him. I said that I understand it from his perspective. There's nothing contradictory about having enough empathy to be able to understand how others might think and feel.

"As for asking him why he townreads me, I'd have to ask that of every player":
Yes you should, but then no one is actually using their townread of you to suspect others, whereas RC is doing exactly that. If the whole case against a player like me is based on someone clearing you, the least you could do is inquire with that person why they are townreading you.

That's inherently false. Titus is doing the same thing. Vedith too, I believe. People use their reads in PoE.

Also, I don't think you are as widely townread as you may think.

People who townread me:
Titus, RC, Paul, maybe Vedith

People who don't:
Math, maybe Gamma

Unknown:
NJAC, You, Navy

In terms of the currently active players, that's pretty wide. And most people will probably come to that conclusion, as most people tend to do when I'm active.

"I think that you're saying some really harsh stuff about RC":
Yes. But that doesn't make it baseless. In any case, my assessment of him is not important. Since you haven't played with him before, which I kind of guessed, it was worth warning you. As long as you are aware of the dangers of buddying with RC, you will be fine. RC is a tour de force, but his high skillset is not impenetrable. He has great motivational skills, but he is low on logic. So, if you ask him certain kind of questions, he will be in a tight spot. Of course, he will turn it around, but since you seem like a player who believes in logic and strategy, you would know that he is evading. I don't have the thick skin required to do this coz I get riled up easily as you experienced yourself a while back. But someone with a thicker skin should be doing that.

Oh, I certainly wasn't suggesting that it was baseless. I'm sure you have legitimate reasons to have gripes with RC. He's just not a player that particularly worries me, other than in terms of the influence that he can exert over others.

I'm not really too concerned either way though, because I've grown to care less if I win or lose. I play Mafia partially because I love the concept and hate the execution. I think pretty much everyone who plays Mafia (including me) is bad at the game. I'm just trying to experiment to discover if it's possible to truly get good and if it's possible to make the game fun for me. Granted, I won't ever throw a game, because I believe in achieving glory for the team, but I'm playing on my own terms. Hopefully those those terms aren't too selfish.

[Kelvin Smith]

I just can feel it
Also I'm still hell bent on ASslot being mafia for things during d2

Feelings are trash. Half of the people in this game "feel" that someone is some alignment that they probably aren't. Hell, I don't even completely trust my feelings on Math, and those are ridiculously strong. That's because confirmation bias is the enemy of rational thought.

What about AS Day 2 makes you think the slot if scum? And you realize you've basically described confirmation bias, right?

The d2 thing is AS bullshitting through having made the slip of calling one of the pairs of CS+me/alban+creature town with lies and misdirection. I saw the error, pushed it, AS backs out of it while using the backing out to shade me.

I'm not quite sure I understand. You have a link for context?

[Kelvin Smith]

Gamma, vote for RC.

Mod, don't replace me.

This is becoming a joke now. Sorry about that. I have difficulty controlling myself and quite often say or do things on the spur of the moment

Happy to hear you're sticking around, but can you vote Math? If it'll make you feel more comfortable, we can try to Cop either you or RC tonight. That way, either he won't push to lynch you or you won't have to worry that he's scum.

[alban]

Vote Math based on what? I just showed you few pages back that almost all your reasons for voting Math are unsubstantiated. Yes, I would have voted for Math since they were one of the suspects for me, but so was Agent Sparkles. And RC replacing AS makes him my top priority to lynch right now. Unless you can show me why Math is a better lynch than AS/RC. Why not lynch RC and cop Math or me? That could work too.

[RadiantCowbells]

Alban you haven't given a reason that I'm scum besides describing my playstyle in general in very, very negative terms and calling me scum.

In what way are you saying that my play in this game is specifically indicative of my scum play rather than just my play in general?

[Kelvin Smith]

FYI, I'm currently working on developing a framework so that the coming Days are entirely strategic and virtually devoid of having to rely on reads. We've only got about 60 hours to until the deadline (unless we get an extension), so we all need to start preparing for later Days, in case any of aren't around.

I also think we might want to NL tomorrow, regardless of if Math flips scum. I need to crunch the numbers, but I'm trying to think about LyLo. We're probably going to have to squeeze every mislynch out possible if we use a strategic framework, but it should give us the most real data. I'll try to take time to think about and explain it tomorrow, but I've also got some business to attend to, do it might be late or it might have to wait until Thursday.

[RadiantCowbells]

And furthermore your single experience with me as scum is EXTREMELY unreflective of my general scum play.
I set out that game specifically to mimic what GigabyteTroubadour specifically thinks is my town meta as much as I could.
Like if that game is your context for my scum meta, then your reads are going to be ass backwards most of the time.

Alban- if we lynch Navy and she flips scum, what's your read on me?

[RadiantCowbells]

FYI, I'm currently working on developing a framework so that the coming Days are entirely strategic and virtually devoid of having to rely on reads. We've only got about 60 hours to until the deadline (unless we get an extension), so we all need to start preparing for later Days, in case any of aren't around.

I also think we might want to NL tomorrow, regardless of if Math flips scum. I need to crunch the numbers, but I'm trying to think about LyLo. We're probably going to have to squeeze every mislynch out possible if we use a strategic framework, but it should give us the most real data. I'll try to take time to think about and explain it tomorrow, but I've also got some business to attend to, do it might be late or it might have to wait until Thursday.

We never NL, period, until day 6.

[Kelvin Smith]

Vote Math based on what? I just showed you few pages back that almost all your reasons for voting Math are unsubstantiated. Yes, I would have voted for Math since they were one of the suspects for me, but so was Agent Sparkles. And RC replacing AS makes him my top priority to lynch right now. Unless you can show me why Math is a better lynch than AS/RC. Why not lynch RC and cop Math or me? That could work too.

No, you didn't. I responded and most of your reasoning was weak. Math is the optimal choice, hands down. I'll explain further in my strategic framework, but it's the only lynch that gives us other information, so it's most likely the lynch we're going with. We're probably going to be mislynching a lot going forward, if my plan works, but each one is going to hurt scum more than it helps them. The basic premise is lynching Cops with Innocents to get confirmed town, then Docing them so that scum have to kill within our unknown pools, giving us confirmed data and deterring fakeclaims.

[Gamma Emerald]

Gamma, vote for RC.

Mod, don't replace me.

This is becoming a joke now. Sorry about that. I have difficulty controlling myself and quite often say or do things on the spur of the moment

Am doing so right now

[Kelvin Smith]

FYI, I'm currently working on developing a framework so that the coming Days are entirely strategic and virtually devoid of having to rely on reads. We've only got about 60 hours to until the deadline (unless we get an extension), so we all need to start preparing for later Days, in case any of aren't around.

I also think we might want to NL tomorrow, regardless of if Math flips scum. I need to crunch the numbers, but I'm trying to think about LyLo. We're probably going to have to squeeze every mislynch out possible if we use a strategic framework, but it should give us the most real data. I'll try to take time to think about and explain it tomorrow, but I've also got some business to attend to, do it might be late or it might have to wait until Thursday.

We never NL, period, until day 6.

See, that was my thought process too. I ran some preliminary numbers and I'm not sure that's optimal though. It very well could be. I need some time to actually lay everything out and I need to go to bed very soon, as I have class in the morning.

[Kelvin Smith]

Gamma, vote for RC.

Mod, don't replace me.

This is becoming a joke now. Sorry about that. I have difficulty controlling myself and quite often say or do things on the spur of the moment

Am doing so right now

Maybe don't? You guys must realize that you probably aren't going to drum up support for that lynch, right?

I'm not lynching RC, Paul is effectively sheeping me, Titus isn't going to do it, and RC sure as hell isn't going to do it.

So that means you need all of:
Navy Replacement (that we might not get by the deadline)
NJAC (who keeps saying he'll post and doesn't)
MathBlade (who would support the lynch, but is probably scum)
Gamma
alban (who also supports the Math lynch and should totally be putting his vote there)
Vedith (who I don't think supports an RC lynch, though I could be wrong)

[Gamma Emerald]

UNVOTE:

So this is interesting.

I'm not fully caught up as I'm writing this, but at least one pair of {Sheep, Gamma} and {Alban, Creature} is probably town. I don't think it's unbelievable for there to be multiple N1 docs given that there was already a save with 12 players still alive, and it would be a pretty dumb gambit for alban to fakeclaim doc after two claims had already happened unless there are more cops than doctors and he's purposely manipulating that knowledge.

Here's the initial issue. AS said that both the doc and protection target would be confirmed. How does he know NJAC wasn't killed? Probably because he's mafia and knows what went down behind the scenes.

[Gamma Emerald]

Gamma, vote for RC.

Mod, don't replace me.

This is becoming a joke now. Sorry about that. I have difficulty controlling myself and quite often say or do things on the spur of the moment

Am doing so right now

Maybe don't? You guys must realize that you probably aren't going to drum up support for that lynch, right?

I'm not lynching RC, Paul is effectively sheeping me, Titus isn't going to do it, and RC sure as hell isn't going to do it.

So that means you need all of:
Navy Replacement (that we might not get by the deadline)
NJAC (who keeps saying he'll post and doesn't)
MathBlade (who would support the lynch, but is probably scum)
Gamma
alban (who also supports the Math lynch and should totally be putting his vote there)
Vedith (who I don't think supports an RC lynch, though I could be wrong)

Can you agree to put serious consideration into lynching RC tomorrow? Also goes for Titus. You say that there's not much support, so I want to make sure there's at least a chance tomorrow.

[alban]

Alban you haven't given a reason that I'm scum besides describing my playstyle in general in very, very negative terms and calling me scum.

In what way are you saying that my play in this game is specifically indicative of my scum play rather than just my play in general?

And furthermore your single experience with me as scum is EXTREMELY unreflective of my general scum play.
I set out that game specifically to mimic what GigabyteTroubadour specifically thinks is my town meta as much as I could.
Like if that game is your context for my scum meta, then your reads are going to be ass backwards most of the time.

Alban- if we lynch Navy and she flips scum, what's your read on me?

You may have forgotten, but I have not, that we have played multiple games together.
My assessment of you also doesn't stand alone. In the games where you were town, you have been lynched/day-vigged on D1.
No, I am not saying you are a conf!scum. I am saying this: You have an extremely confident playstyle which is foolhardy as a town coz it misdirects a fair proportion of the players, and is extremely dangerous as a scum. This style of play coupled with Agent Sparkles being on my scumlist, I am fine with lynching you. We were proceeding slowly to the deadline before you came in, but now I think because of your playstyle, we are lost again. Worst is there will be some players who will be swayed by your apparent confidence. I prefer slow > being lost > being a sheep.

Since I have played with you as a scum where the hallmark of your scum!game was to incriminate your scum!partners to gain towncred, I am not even going to answer the point about Navy. But anyone who is interested in looking at the Navy-RC association should just ISO RC and look at the arc of your Navy read. You started off by calling them conf!town and now you are ready to lynch them. You have no reference points coz you replaced in so late, you do not give any reasoning why you think what you think, and my experience with you as a town is that your reads are not bang on and you don't learn from your mistakes. When you make a wrong move as a town by lynching a townie, you come back the next day by discrediting that townie and how they deserved to be lynched. All this would be scummy on any other player, but it never sticks on you because of your level of confidence. My observation is that people are more taken in by confidence than by logic, which works in your favour. Hell, even me who is kinda the flagbearer of anti-you this game, is thinking inside, 'what if RC is correct?', and that itself is an indication of your power. So, I have to bend over backwards to not be queuing in the line. To wrap up, I am not sure who you are, but I lynching you would benefit the game regardless of your alignment.

[Kelvin Smith]

UNVOTE:

So this is interesting.

I'm not fully caught up as I'm writing this, but at least one pair of {Sheep, Gamma} and {Alban, Creature} is probably town. I don't think it's unbelievable for there to be multiple N1 docs given that there was already a save with 12 players still alive, and it would be a pretty dumb gambit for alban to fakeclaim doc after two claims had already happened unless there are more cops than doctors and he's purposely manipulating that knowledge.

Here's the initial issue. AS said that both the doc and protection target would be confirmed. How does he know NJAC wasn't killed? Probably because he's mafia and knows what went down behind the scenes.

I'll read it further later, I guess, but I just want to be clear on what happened.

He said that both the Doc and target would be clear and that's why he's scum? But that's just common sense. Unless scum purposely didn't NK so that their operative could claim Doc, then both the Doctor and the target must be town (unless you are suggesting that scum targeting their own person, for some nonsensical reason). It's 100% reasonable to think that way, even if it's not foolproof, since scum could've purposely not killed.

[Kelvin Smith]

Gamma, vote for RC.

Mod, don't replace me.

This is becoming a joke now. Sorry about that. I have difficulty controlling myself and quite often say or do things on the spur of the moment

Am doing so right now

Maybe don't? You guys must realize that you probably aren't going to drum up support for that lynch, right?

I'm not lynching RC, Paul is effectively sheeping me, Titus isn't going to do it, and RC sure as hell isn't going to do it.

So that means you need all of:
Navy Replacement (that we might not get by the deadline)
NJAC (who keeps saying he'll post and doesn't)
MathBlade (who would support the lynch, but is probably scum)
Gamma
alban (who also supports the Math lynch and should totally be putting his vote there)
Vedith (who I don't think supports an RC lynch, though I could be wrong)

Can you agree to put serious consideration into lynching RC tomorrow? Also goes for Titus. You say that there's not much support, so I want to make sure there's at least a chance tomorrow.

Like I said, I'm trying to work out a framework. It involves strategic Copping and lynching Cops or guilties to get confirmation. Both Titus and RC are the two people that I would personally feel most comfortable with Copping and it's something we can and should start discussing now.

[Gamma Emerald]

Well that's a fun statement. Does it have grounds or is it floating

...Why didn't you say no? Can't be true. You're actually not I haven't used my Cop yet but let's lynch jjh tomorrow since he tried to ask me if it was a guilty.

Starting to reread and this looks like ass
It was clear he was asking for an explanation not if it was a guilty

[alban]

Vote Math based on what? I just showed you few pages back that almost all your reasons for voting Math are unsubstantiated. Yes, I would have voted for Math since they were one of the suspects for me, but so was Agent Sparkles. And RC replacing AS makes him my top priority to lynch right now. Unless you can show me why Math is a better lynch than AS/RC. Why not lynch RC and cop Math or me? That could work too.

No, you didn't. I responded and most of your reasoning was weak. Math is the optimal choice, hands down. I'll explain further in my strategic framework, but it's the only lynch that gives us other information, so it's most likely the lynch we're going with. We're probably going to be mislynching a lot going forward, if my plan works, but each one is going to hurt scum more than it helps them. The basic premise is lynching Cops with Innocents to get confirmed town, then Docing them so that scum have to kill within our unknown pools, giving us confirmed data and deterring fakeclaims.

That's your perception and you are entitled to that, but according to me, out of the six points you mentioned in 2055, there was only one decent point (detailed in 2057). Yeah, Math could be scum, but not for the reasons you mentioned. In fact, your hard push on Math for reasons so weak pushed me away from voting for Math.

[Gamma Emerald]

UNVOTE:

So this is interesting.

I'm not fully caught up as I'm writing this, but at least one pair of {Sheep, Gamma} and {Alban, Creature} is probably town. I don't think it's unbelievable for there to be multiple N1 docs given that there was already a save with 12 players still alive, and it would be a pretty dumb gambit for alban to fakeclaim doc after two claims had already happened unless there are more cops than doctors and he's purposely manipulating that knowledge.

Here's the initial issue. AS said that both the doc and protection target would be confirmed. How does he know NJAC wasn't killed? Probably because he's mafia and knows what went down behind the scenes.

I'll read it further later, I guess, but I just want to be clear on what happened.

He said that both the Doc and target would be clear and that's why he's scum? But that's just common sense. Unless scum purposely didn't NK so that their operative could claim Doc, then both the Doctor and the target must be town (unless you are suggesting that scum targeting their own person, for some nonsensical reason). It's 100% reasonable to think that way, even if it's not foolproof, since scum could've purposely not killed.

But why not include himself and NJAC? By doing that it goes from "one of these is conftown because why nokill" to "One of these pairings is town because I'm a mafia who bullshitted a doc claim".

[Kelvin Smith]

Alban you haven't given a reason that I'm scum besides describing my playstyle in general in very, very negative terms and calling me scum.

In what way are you saying that my play in this game is specifically indicative of my scum play rather than just my play in general?

And furthermore your single experience with me as scum is EXTREMELY unreflective of my general scum play.
I set out that game specifically to mimic what GigabyteTroubadour specifically thinks is my town meta as much as I could.
Like if that game is your context for my scum meta, then your reads are going to be ass backwards most of the time.

Alban- if we lynch Navy and she flips scum, what's your read on me?

You may have forgotten, but I have not, that we have played multiple games together.
My assessment of you also doesn't stand alone. In the games where you were town, you have been lynched/day-vigged on D1.
No, I am not saying you are a conf!scum. I am saying this: You have an extremely confident playstyle which is foolhardy as a town coz it misdirects a fair proportion of the players, and is extremely dangerous as a scum. This style of play coupled with Agent Sparkles being on my scumlist, I am fine with lynching you. We were proceeding slowly to the deadline before you came in, but now I think because of your playstyle, we are lost again. Worst is there will be some players who will be swayed by your apparent confidence. I prefer slow > being lost > being a sheep.

Since I have played with you as a scum where the hallmark of your scum!game was to incriminate your scum!partners to gain towncred, I am not even going to answer the point about Navy. But anyone who is interested in looking at the Navy-RC association should just ISO RC and look at the arc of your Navy read. You started off by calling them conf!town and now you are ready to lynch them. You have no reference points coz you replaced in so late, you do not give any reasoning why you think what you think, and my experience with you as a town is that your reads are not bang on and you don't learn from your mistakes. When you make a wrong move as a town by lynching a townie, you come back the next day by discrediting that townie and how they deserved to be lynched. All this would be scummy on any other player, but it never sticks on you because of your level of confidence. My observation is that people are more taken in by confidence than by logic, which works in your favour. Hell, even me who is kinda the flagbearer of anti-you this game, is thinking inside, 'what if RC is correct?', and that itself is an indication of your power. So, I have to bend over backwards to not be queuing in the line. To wrap up, I am not sure who you are, but I lynching you would benefit the game regardless of your alignment.

I'm not sure I'll be alive forever, but as long as I am, I won't let that happen. And since I'm a Doc, scum can't afford to casually lynch me or they'll help PoE.

I'm trying to get a framework that will last beyond my lifetime in this game though. If people can agree to the framework, we should be in a position where most, if not all, of our lynches are logic-based, so RC's charismatic influence will be less of a factor. So for now, don't worry about that, just worry about sound strategy. We don't need to policy lynch RC.

UNVOTE: MathBlade

Just because I don't want the wagon to run away from me before I can say what I want to say. We're still lynching Math, but we need to make sure the stage is set as we move forward and I don't want to risk a quickhammer to deprive us of the chance to strategize.. If we can do that, we should be able to win this game very easily.

I'm going to bed now. I'll be back tomorrow.