Micro 731 | Scumteam UnPick II - Endgame

[RadiantCowbells]

I know that I'm town: why should I give a shit what your setup speculation claims is the best lynch when it's based off of the possibility existing that I flip scum when I know that to be 0%?

[RadiantCowbells]

I find it hilarious that you're trying to use setup arguments to push me rather than anything that I've done in game, except for calling me blanket "anti-town" for wanting you lynched for being scummy.

[TheBrie]

Can someone who isn't the recommended lynch from Comm's table please comment. GL, maybe. He's been absent too long and we want his feedback. Well I do at least.

I spotted one error in Comm's tables. For Vic, RC and King are equally optimal, bring them to equally optimal overall. And if I'm counting right, they come out the same as far as how many spots they'd clear. Duckdoggo would clear just as many either of them I think. So Comm isn't necessarily advocating the only optimal play, just the one he likes best.

Now with less than a day remaining, We've got to sort something out.

[RadiantCowbells]

So Comm isn't necessarily advocating the only optimal play, just the one he likes best.

This is correct and this is why you should help me lynch him.

[RadiantCowbells]

Kingsmaker/Scylla, for example, removes 9 scumteam possibilities as well.
He's selectively focusing on the lynches that benefit him and pushing them as universally beneficial when

1) there's multiple ways to cut down the same # of people but he's hyperfocusing on the people who are threats to him

and

2) no one who isn't literally fucking terrible would play the game based on eliminating #s of scumteams unless there was a way to get the game to autowin or close to it.

6 scumteam possibilities is a 16.66% chance of town winning and given the actual lylo odds of town only voting correctly two days in a row is far worse.
no decent player would advocate the play that Comm is pushing and I find it sketchy as hell that Vic is actually taking it seriously when he thinks he's good enough to be critical of my past play.

[RadiantCowbells]

So there's actually a difference between removing 10 and removing 9 but it's essentially irrelevant, a shitty as hell way to play the game, and meaningless given that I am 100% town.
It's scum looking for an excuse to push shitty mislynches and nothing more.
There's no way that town who thought I was scum would be pushing to lynch both me and someone who couldn't be scum with me in a the same day phase either.

[RadiantCowbells]

Vic sage was online, posted elsewhere, posted nothing in response to me calling him out.

Commknight has to be the lynch today and it takes 5/6 of the town voting him to lynch him. If you're town fucking vote him.

[Vic Sage]

Yup. I'm online. And pretty drunk.

when he thinks he's good enough to be critical of my past play.

I know I'm good enough to be critical of your play. I've never selfhammered.

Is saying that me and CK could be scum together and I haven't voted him calling me out? I... didn't care.

Like, yeah, that's technically true, but I've been town as fuck this game. The whole reason his proposed strategy is tempting to me is that I know if he's scum he doesn't win through using it. Like, 100%.

I STILL prefer the DD lynch. I STILL think it's probably on scum. I STILL think that both you and CK will probably continue giving me things to think about that narrow down your possible partners. I STILL think KM CK as scum together doesn't make any sense. I STILL want my strongest townread to comment. And I STILL think lynching the person who I think is the only reasonable partner for CK over CK himself is preferable.

In fact, I'm not sure at all what you can say to change that. I WILL be here at deadline, however, and I will lynch CK over no lynch.

[CommKnight]

Can someone who isn't the recommended lynch from Comm's table please comment. GL, maybe. He's been absent too long and we want his feedback. Well I do at least.

I spotted one error in Comm's tables. For Vic, RC and King are equally optimal, bring them to equally optimal overall. And if I'm counting right, they come out the same as far as how many spots they'd clear. Duckdoggo would clear just as many either of them I think. So Comm isn't necessarily advocating the only optimal play, just the one he likes best.

Now with less than a day remaining, We've got to sort something out.

So while RC is nodding his head (and not even being analytical because it suits him this game). Let me explain why this is wrong.

Now if we were going off of solely the first lynch, it's true, King and RC both would clear 4 spots each. So it seems like they'd be optimal. However, we do not get the alignment of the first flip until the second one flips. So the optimal play is to clear as many duos as possible. If King and RC were lynched together, they'd overlap one slot (their duo) which means they'd only clear 7 out of the 8 unknowns they currently have individually because one would be cleared twice.

Now if from Vic's PoV were to lynch Scylla and RC, Scylla cannot be partners with RC so their cells do not overlap, which means you can add Scylla's 4 to RC's 4 and have 8 rather than 7 cells cleared.

I suggest voting RC at your earliest convenience, he'd NEVER point this out to you and he'd never try to lynch any optimal slots today. It'd make sense if RC pushed Scylla, Vic or King. But Duck and myself? That's like the minimum cells cleared possible. Basically relying on the lowest percentage possible that we rolled it over the higher percentages that multiple other groups could have rolled it.

Right now, town has 16 possible pairs (not eliminating any from a town perspective because we're assuming a 3rd party spectator stance). Which means each cell on my table that is white represents a 6.25% chance of being rolled. Now if we were to lynch RC & Scylla we'd have a 62.5% chance of hitting at least one scum (but it'd be a 0% chance they're both scum because they can't be scum together). Where as lynching King & RC would be a 56.25% chance of hitting at least scum with a 6.25% chance of both being scum.

If we were to lynch DuckDoggo and myself, that'd only clear 5 cells, meaning only a 31.25% chance of hitting scum and 6.25% chance of both Doggo and myself being scum.

Now for me to push from my own position as I know I'm not scum, I'd personally take out 4 cells right now from my PoV and I CAN'T be scum with Scylla. So let's say Scylla and RC are lynched rather than King and RC. From my PoV I'd have a 9/12 chance... or 75% chance of hitting scum. Now let me factor in the fact that I TR both GL and Brie enough to assume neither will be scum this game (I got a town lean on Vic but I can't factor him into this because it's still possible he's scum). That'd take out a further 5 cells for me. Which means Scylla and RB dying would give me a 5/7 chance of hitting scum or 71.4% chance. (Jeez my chances are higher if I don't TR Brie and GL lol).

Now you can say "Comm is pushing only what benefits him" or you can look for any optimal 2 lynches that might've somehow slipped by me, but I believe I've posted everyone's optimal lynches correctly with those that would tie the percentage posted as X/Y/Z for their second lynch.

But I believe for RC's blatant misrepresentation of what I was saying and the fact he's saying I'm only pushing what suits me as "optimal" and not considering the full outcome for all townies. He could be lynched. Not only is he the highest person on the scale for optimal lynches, he's also playing in a very anti-town manner with trying to push something he has admitted multiple times as a mislynch because he doesn't even scumread me. He "wants to teach Comm a lesson". It'd be different if he had an actual case and did SR me for real. But I call a spade a spade and by now RC should know that.

A deadline lynch on me is not as valuable as just lynched RC today. I've put my cases forth to all of you, now prove me wrong in the matter. Prove to me that RC is more likely town than I am.

[CommKnight]

Giving one extra day, then no more pauses or extensions.

Deadline: (expired on 2017-07-31 01:52:12)

I'll be home before deadline tonight, but if the wagon doesn't change to RC, it's gonna end up being a mislynch.

Also consider this: I'm putting in the effort to explain my thoughts and reasons for reads. As well as point out the mistakes in assumptions people make. RC is doing none of this. If this was GL and me or Vic and me, I'd gladly just let the wagon go on since they're probably town this game, but RC is more than likely scum. So I will push for his head.

[CommKnight]

And bluntly Comm needs to be taught a lesson. I don't want this happening next game I join with him. He should die.

Very townie, much scum read, such scum hunting.



(I swear, if I ever hydra with Transcend, we're doing meme wars)

Kingsmaker/Scylla, for example, removes 9 scumteam possibilities as well.
He's selectively focusing on the lynches that benefit him and pushing them as universally beneficial when

1) there's multiple ways to cut down the same # of people but he's hyperfocusing on the people who are threats to him

and

2) no one who isn't literally fucking terrible would play the game based on eliminating #s of scumteams unless there was a way to get the game to autowin or close to it.

6 scumteam possibilities is a 16.66% chance of town winning and given the actual lylo odds of town only voting correctly two days in a row is far worse.
no decent player would advocate the play that Comm is pushing and I find it sketchy as hell that Vic is actually taking it seriously when he thinks he's good enough to be critical of my past play.

I love that RC is trying to play the 16.66% chance of town winning, forgetting the fact that it's over 50% chance we hit scum in lynching him and either King or Scylla which would bring up our percentage greatly and give us another lynch before LYLO.

Comm & Duck lynch = 7/16 = 43.75% chance of hitting 1 scum. If BOTH of us are town, you go into tomorrow (assuming scum doesn't night kill) with 9 unknowns and 11.11% chance of hitting sucm.

Meanwhile, if we lynch King and RC (forget Scylla for a moment because while it's optimal it's not what I'm personally pushing) = 9/16 = 56.25% chance of hitting one scum. If BOTHER of them are town, we have only 7 unknowns and 14.28% chance of hitting scum.

While yes, if both RC and Scylla are town, 16.66% chance like RC said. But... that's assuming both are town which I would doubt RC being town ever this game.

Just saying stats don't lie and the only one trying to manipulate them to their own favour here is RC. They'll never talk about the true numbers and that is because it suits him to not discuss them.

[CommKnight]

Actually a mistake in my above numbers. Duck and myself overlap, so that's only clear 6 slots. Which means 37.5% chance of hitting one scum with going into tomorrow with only a 10% chance of hitting scum if we're BOTH town.

[TheBrie]

I wish I could say I understood that, but I'm tired. Too tited. Which is potentially as nad as others posting as drunk.
I prefer DuckDoggo, but I'll see in the morning.

[CommKnight]

I'm going to facepalm here when RC managers to sucker ya'll in for this mislynch. Gotta get ready for work.

[GuiltyLion]

I'm still fine with my vote. I don't like how CK is trying to push both RC being an "optimal" mechanics lynch and that he's also scum simultaneously. If CK truly believes in RC as a mechanics lynch he should just push that angle, but the way he's trying to foster paranoia over scum!RC and claim that he's scum looks faked to me to try to supplement his agenda lynch. Like RC had done nothing strongly indicative at all before CK went full into "RC is scum" mode, and CK pushing him for his readslist felt pretty disingenuous.

Also, there was already a pretty good chance that either CK or DD would have gone through at the time that RC replaced into the game and I think if he were scum and they were both town then he would have scumread someone generally townread like me or Vic and made a bunch of noise about that while whiteknighting the existing mislynches.

[GuiltyLion]

Also I can't comprehend where these "chance of hitting scum tomorrow if we're both town" numbers are coming from. FMPOV with 2 scum in 5 alive in LYLO we have a 40% chance of hitting scum with the next lynch in a vacuum, 50% if the lynch is not on me. Can you repeat in a single line where this 10% vs 16% stuff coming from?

[GuiltyLion]

Also I picked acidphoenix/Brie because I saw acidphoenix win a scum newbie game and Brie seems to always be nearly universally townread and I thought if she's good at scum she could possibly exploit that

picked CK and S&C because I played with CK before too and because I hate scum hydras

[CommKnight]

The percentages are based on lynching the correct two scum in a row assuming both of the lynches wind up town. Because not only will you guys have to be right tomorrow, you'll also have to guess their partner correctly. Sure the percentages changes after flips. But right now, that would be the percentage if you tried to find both scum. Also percentage chance of someone being scum changes based on how many possible pairs they have.

Also I've given up. I've already pointed out all the things I should need to point out. You've done fuck all after the initial table GL but the initial table is why I TR you. Other than that you stopped putting in the effort to actually scum-hunt. We started out with similar mindset but ended with you going in the deep-end rather than take the logic approach.

- RC is the optimal lynch.
- RC is anti-town.
- RC has admitted this is a mislynch he just wants to "teach Comm a lesson".

But hey, the guy arguing logically is still scummier than RC. RIIIIIIIIIGHT.

Anyway, I'll be in dead chat confirming my suspicion by tomorrow (RL day).

[CommKnight]

I played with CK before too

When did you play with me? What account are you an alt of?

[CommKnight]

Nevermind, I found it. Almost forgot you were in that game. I correctly TR'd you early on and was calling scum as I seen them that game too. Do you really want scum to beat us two games in a row together?

[CommKnight]

1SVT, Vax, Hiraki were all obvious. The only ones not obvious that game were Edo and ASP when he was recruited. Mind you we were outnumbered then and it was a super-bastard game with one scum having a day-kill ability.

[Scylla and Charybdis]

Current VC?

-Scylla

[RadiantCowbells]

Votecount Vic.1

Votecount Unofficial

[3] CommKnight - Kingmaker, GuiltyLion, RadiantCowbells L-2
[2] Duckdoggo - Vic Sage, Scylla and Charybdis L-3
[1] RadiantCowbells - CommKnight, L-4
[1] Scylla and Charybdis - TheBrie L-4
[1] Vic Sage - Duckdoggo L-4
[0] TheBrie
[0] GuiltyLion
[0] Kingmaker

[0] Nolynch

Not voting:

8 players are alive, therefore 5 votes is the majority.

Deadline: (expired on 2017-07-31 01:52:12)

I noticed that RC asked for pick reasons. There's a vague chance vung is mastin, two hydras, and GL is the only one here who I was sure I'd played with previously pre-replacements.

This is correct.

[RadiantCowbells]

If you're town, just vote Comm.

[Kingmaker]

I'll not be moving my vote away unless Comm lynch becomes impossible.

My only other preference is Doggo right now, but only if Comm vagon becomes impossible.