Micro 731 | Scumteam UnPick II - Endgame

[TheBrie]

Like, look at your post about lynching all three of me, doggo, King. I agree, if CK is scum that works pretty damn well. But you've picked literally the worst option of the three (from the PoV of someone outside of those three) for information should CK flip town. We shouldn't gamble the win on the chance for a perfect win. That's stupid.

And let's be real here. I've wanted to lynch dog for a week now, so when I say that the wagon on him is terribad, you should trust me that it's terribad.

I agree with this. In many ways Doggo is not the ideal lynch. Though replacements are always inconvenient and I don't like Doggo, I'm not lynching them unless something else of suspicion comes up, or it's the only option.

@RC, did you unvote to give a chance to the replacement, or because you secretly admit Vic is right here?

[RadiantCowbells]

I'm going to give the replacement a chance.

[RadiantCowbells]

In what ways is Dunk not an ideal lynch?

[Vic Sage]

The ones I said.

My concern is that Kings might be scum with someone who is not DD or CK. Or that 2 people who are neither of those are scum.

WE ALREADY WIN if DD and CK are scum together. Like, CK flipping scum basically means the game is over regardless of what we do. The problem is that I don't know CK is going to flip scum, and I'm going to plan for the worst case scenario. Who gives a shit who we lynch today if we're already going to win?

[RadiantCowbells]

What Kings scumteams are you worried about?

[Vic Sage]

You and S&C, mostly.

193

[TheBrie]

Well if you're wrong about Comm, Duck eliminates the least. Well except for me.
But you are confident and I am liking you. On checking it's not really that bad. If Comm turns out town, but Duck is scumm, there's only three partners to choose between and two of those are pretty unlikely. On the rare chance neither are scum, a Duck lynch only clears one less than all the other options excluding Scylla who can't be scum with Comm.

BTW, I'v made a chart a bit like Comm was using and can put it up if anyone cares to see it.

PEdit: @Vic, are you thinking King could be scum with Scylla? I really can't remember much interactions between them. I think Scylla might have said they didn't like King.

Why do people have to keep posting while I'm writing my post?

[RadiantCowbells]

@both of you: which Dunk scumteams exactly are you writing off and why?

[TheBrie]

Dunk is a different player. This is Duckdoggo.

And I'm not sure what your question even means. But I'll answer what it might mean. I TR Guilty, so it's not him and Duck. And I'm pretty sure it wouldn't be Vic with the way he was trying to lynch Duck earlier. Which leaves Scylla.

[Kingmaker]

Look at his vote for doggo. It's basically, CK was scum, so doggo must be scum. But we don't have a CK flip. It's all sorts of gross.

I don't understand what you're trying to get to. Yes we don't have a Comm flip yet, but of course I'll assume he is going to flip scum - that's why I voted him and advocated his lynch in the first place! What would be the point of going after him if I didn't believe he was scum? This is not the same as assuming a living player's alignment and doing partnership analysis from that.

[Duckdoggo]

Sorry, had no wifi over the weekend and wasn't expecting my other head to be absent too.
Will catch up now.

-ST

[Duckdoggo]

About comm,
In my opinion they're just less awkward here than other games I've seen them in.

Also, consistency between heads probably is more of a town tell than a scumtell. Hydras have a PT, and if they're scum, they'd probably be way more careful.

Tacobutt and I will always have a buddy-buddy feel, and y'all gotta get used to it.

-C

Hydra dissonance is a real tool that can be used at any opportunity to look like town by scum. "Look at this thing we disagree on, we clearly discuss our reads!" Is definitely an easy way to look like you have reads.

That's taking it to a WIFOM level.

-C

[Duckdoggo]

@DuckDoggo

That(137) was a horrible post. Instead of giving Vic(or anyone else) a reason to read you as town, you basically attacked him and your reasoning behind it is off as well. Seriousness of a read and a read not being set in stone are not mutually exclusive,

no one's

read should be set in stone right now - we are 6 pages into the game and one of the players haven't even showed up yet! That does not stop the reads from being serious though?

Why are you only tunneling on Vic, he is not the only one who is suspicious of you? Why did you vote him in the first place, out of 5 people who had same amount of probable partnerships? Why did you dodge my first question on this, only to attack Vic over his suspicion on you and do...nothing else? Where are your reads - you must have some reads as you said your reads are not set in stone?

You've effectively scumhunted as much as Vung at this point. From my point of view you are either unmotivated towny with very little will to play or scum who is barely trying - in either case I see

no reason

you should not be lynched.

1. Attacking still gives information
2. I feel most comfortable with my vote where is it now. It could be gut, but I'm just comfortable. Vics posts actually do tick me off.
3. I don't need to "give people a reason that I'm town" I can just share my opinions and give insight and I've done my job.
4. Because they also voted vic, and a vote wagon is the way to push.
5. You're probtown. S&C looks town. Radiant is probtown.
6. It's a waste of a lynch but if we're causing that much of a problem... Lol.

-C

[Creature]

Searching for Duckdoggo replacement.

No longer needed.

[RadiantCowbells]

Vic doesn't want Duck/Comm lynched. What would the picks situation be like with both of them removed?

[TheBrie]

I'm on my phone not my computer, but I can get that information for you in a hour or so.

@duckdoggo if you mean to be voting Vic, you'll need to redo it.

[RadiantCowbells]

	acidphoenix	Vic Sage	Scylla & Char	CommKnight	GuiltyLion	Duckdoggo	TheBrie	vungrzlfrys
acidphoenix	X					O	O
Vic Sage	X	X			O		O
Scylla & Char	X	X	X	O				O
CommKnight	X	X	X	X	O		O
GuiltyLion	X	X	X	X	X	O	O
Duckdoggo	X	X	X	X	X	X	O	O
TheBrie	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
vungrzlfrys	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X

X

= Duplicate

X

= Impossibe

O

= Ruled Out

Also, can everyone give an explanation for why they made the exclusions that they did?

5/6 of

RC
Scylla
Vic
Kings
GL

tomorrow

Brie probably HAS to be the overnight nightkill in any universe

RC/Scylla is impossible
Brie is basically unlynchable, especially if either me or scylla die
GL is more townread than Vic

versus

RC
Scylla
TheBrie
Vic
Duck

I can't be with Scylla
GL can't be with Vic/Duck*/Brie so only potential scumpartners with me/Scylla which is the same as Brie and he's probably objectively townier so he dies

I'm not really seeing the scum motivation to push for this change unless he's scum with duck and doing some sort of white flag gambit?

[RadiantCowbells]

Actually there is motivation if both of them plus comm are town
if scum is Vic/Scylla lynching Kings today lets them (pushes them to?) kill a more threatening townie and duck is probably easier to lynch in LyLo
If Comm is scum he still has to get me lynched at some point and that's going to be the daunting task, though with a Comm scumflip Kings would also be very difficult to lynch.
whereas Duck is easy to lynch for the rest of the game.

[RadiantCowbells]

If Vic/Comm are town
RC is town

{Duck, Scylla, Brie, GL, Kings}

Duck/Scylla
Duck/GL
Scylla/Brie
Scylla/GL
Scylla/Kings
GL/KIngs

[RadiantCowbells]

Hey, woke up from a hangover and off to a birthday so I'll keep this short. I'm pretty confident Comm was a scum and due to their individual scumminess, the fact Comm avoided speaking about or voting Doggo while they were an easy target and also the fact that Doggo looks like they pretty much gave up on this, so - VOTE: DuckDoggo

I'll come back tonight to check on the thread and iso everyone to get more reads in case İ'm wrong on one or both of Comm&Doggo - but I don't really feel like I'm wrong.

Don't think this is the post he makes if he actually doesn't want Duck to get lynched. I'll write this off

[RadiantCowbells]

Duck/kings waas impossible anyway lol

[RadiantCowbells]

Scylla essentially clearing me in 281 still feels like scum would have said it differently with some sort of 'if RC is actually town.'

Scylla/Ducks I'd buy I guess. Scylla's still calling Ducks scum even though that lynch is autoloss for them but hasn't actually voted them.
Ducks/GL I'm writing off. there's no way that GL L-1s them and keeps the vote in autoloss when he's widely townread and can vote pretty much anywhere here.
Scylla/TheBrie I'll discuss at some other time.

Scylla/GL Scylla called GL town from very early on in the game but never explained it. almost never discusses them. least discussed person in the game by far from that slot.
Both of them excluded one scumteam from the other,

Gambler's fallacy is assuming that future probabilities are influenced/affected by past outcomes of independent events. So I don't see a Gambler's fallacy in CK's post

However, the way he retaliated with a vote and a "last time someone said that they were scum" argument is terrible. S&C looks town to me, and CK didn't actually address any of the real substance of S&C's argument/post, instead latching onto a (incorrectly applied) buzzword

feels kinda chainsawy and there's no explanation of this townread that immediately puts S&C into the top echelon of GL's townblock. spends a lot of time questioning scumreads on S&C but then in 147 they're no longer a top townread but not in the lynchpool. 288 could be a lazy scum vote on a town wagon.

[RadiantCowbells]

@ Scylla/GL can I get a walk through of your reads on each other throughout the game?

[Vic Sage]

Actually there is motivation if both of them plus comm are town
if scum is Vic/Scylla lynching Kings today lets them (pushes them to?) kill a more threatening townie and duck is probably easier to lynch in LyLo
If Comm is scum he still has to get me lynched at some point and that's going to be the daunting task, though with a Comm scumflip Kings would also be very difficult to lynch.
whereas Duck is easy to lynch for the rest of the game.

This is dumb. If it was Scylla/me I would have hammered DD and lynched you tomorrow. It would have been easy, and I would have won. There's no reason for me not to do that.

[RadiantCowbells]

Actually there is motivation if both of them plus comm are town
if scum is Vic/Scylla lynching Kings today lets them (pushes them to?) kill a more threatening townie and duck is probably easier to lynch in LyLo
If Comm is scum he still has to get me lynched at some point and that's going to be the daunting task, though with a Comm scumflip Kings would also be very difficult to lynch.
whereas Duck is easy to lynch for the rest of the game.

This is dumb. If it was Scylla/me I would have hammered DD and lynched you tomorrow. It would have been easy, and I would have won. There's no reason for me not to do that.

You know better than this and I know better than this. I don't think this is AI but cut the crap.