Micro 731 | Scumteam UnPick II - Endgame

[RadiantCowbells]

the one you asked me

but sure let's hear both

[GuiltyLion]

I wanted to start talking to you, mainly. I don't think I can read you that well but I do think you tend to be more aggressive and belligerent as scum so if you immediately started trying to escalate a 1v1 against me I figured that might point to you being scum. I don't disagree about being surprised at the double town flip though

with the Kings question I'm basically just asking if anyone is scumreading him and pointing to his most recent post as a reason I currently still think he's town. But I'm gonna do a reread of the game with the Vic flip in mind tonight.

[RadiantCowbells]

well here's where I'm at

TheBrie kills me last night. She's a lot less lynchable with only one possible scumpartner and I'm positive that she would have been terrified of me. I don't think Scylla prevents that kill to kill Vic. That clears her fmpov

so that's 2/3 of you scylla and kings and fmpov GL/Kings is the scumteam that I am least feeling right now but I guess it's theoretically possible

[RadiantCowbells]

ehh I'm going to take that back

[RadiantCowbells]

(the gl/kings thing: I don't think Brie is scum.)

[RadiantCowbells]

My concern is that I feel like GL+Scylla shoots me for presenting the possibility. Vic was also most interested in Kings: why wouldn't they just shoot me (kill doesn't raise questions because RC) and leave Vic thinking Kings is scum?
Of the other two teams, GL+Kings and Scylla/Kings I can both see: of the two I think that Scylla/Kings is likelier because I suspect that you wouldn't open the day by calling out something town your partner did.

So I did consider speedvoting at the start of the day and that's not a scumtell at all but I would have voted Scylla rather than you.

[RadiantCowbells]

If it's Scylla/GL I was kept around because you thought I could mislynch me, not because you planned to fool me.

[GuiltyLion]

TheBrie kills me last night. She's a lot less lynchable with only one possible scumpartner and I'm positive that she would have been terrified of me. I don't think Scylla prevents that kill to kill Vic. That clears her fmpov

I feel this as a good argument against TheBrie/S&C team but I want some Brie reads

FMPOV there's at least one townie and one scum in {Kings/TheBrie} and at least one townie and one scum in {RC/S&C}
gut feeling was Kings ISO by itself is townier than Brie's, but I think yours is townier than S&Cs and I do think S&C is independently the scummiest of all 4.

this is all without a reread though

[RadiantCowbells]

Ignoring the argument based on her scumteam possibility she's not actually that towny? the towniest thing about her play is something that would only really make sense to me, but I'm pretty confident she's town nonetheless.

[RadiantCowbells]

I was planning on simply not stating it because I suspect Brie will scumread me because I initially used this argument when I was scum but I don't think that Brie votes Duck yesterday.

From her POV as scum there's 3 town tunneling Duck and the counterwagon is Kings and both are totally fine for her interests so there's not really a reason to get involved? Like either wagon is fine and she's explicitly said she doesn't support the one wagon.

Whereas I feel like as town she would be more inclined to follow me and that's sort of what she's been doing? Like on Comm it could be scum using it as an excuse but wrt Duck she has no reason to place that vote as scum. Both lynches were fine and she could have just stayed off the wagon and I suspect that's what she as relatively newb scum would intend to do. Her stated views opposed it and scum are usually like by the book about their views and I really don't think scum her votes him there.

Like you could argue it as a scumtell but I think it's actually the strongest reason that I have to think that she's town tbh.

[GuiltyLion]

here's a shotgun of some reread thoughts

Gambler's fallacy. That was mentioned to me before. But you know who mentioned it? Scum. When i had multiple townies pegged and the entire scum team pegged into a smaller pool.

I do hope that the defensive stance doesn't keep up through out the game.

I'm not going to argue about what % of gamblers fallacy comes from either side, but

I do expect you to start giving some serious reads and reasons going forward

.

-Scylla

knowing that Comm is town, I find the bolded here somewhat scummy. S&C is talking to him as if he knows Comm is town

@Vic

What are your thoughts on this?

You don't like them buddying up to Vic but meanwhile you are... buddying up to Vic? Kinda mixed signals there.

^not damning but this makes a lot of sense for a King-S&C team. Kings trying to get Vic to suspect Brie's vote on S&C. King - what was your angle here?

Sorry, but I had a pet die today and I'm not feeling up to dealing with you all at the moment. I'll be back tomorrow.

It's all good man, real life comes first. It's why I'm not able to post what I wanted to post yet, don't even got the time right now to post the full length of it all.

__________________________________________________________________________________

So my reasons for TR'ing GuiltyLion and TheBrie has to do with their play and attitude thus far in the game. Not because of my table. My table just helps further increase the chances of me being correct on those reads and thus less doubt in them.

VOTE: Vung - There's a good chance this slot is scum and it'd at least free up the mod from finding a replacement. The only other one I'd be willing to lynch is Kingmaker at the moment. Everyone else I'd rather have 7 more days to sort better for the second lynch.

Really? After basing all your game plan on this, making tables and threatening(and voting) other people because of this mechanic you're suggesting we should lynch one person whose picks we don't know, who hasn't posted even one post yet, who will be probably replaced even before first deadine hits - because they might flip scum due to

pure luck

? Don't you even have

one

scum read you'd rather vote?

I can't see any ways to justify this play coming from town, I really can't.

this is a little melodramatic

There's a reason we're the top 3 wagons.
If others think it's worth us being votes then why can't RC?

We chose my names as it's the only names we knew in the game.
We actually thought I was picking Scum teams but that's because we don't read.

So to me Brie should just be town.
I don't read this as Scum RC and GL/Vic Sage are both posting as town for me.

That leaves 3 people as Scum. Comm, Duck, and King Maker.

King Comm
Comm Duck

I'll do a proper post shortly today. Limited on time.

-Scylla

so I don't feel like I ever understood why S&C was scumreading Kingsmaker. I'd really like for them to explain that read ASAP and whether it has changed with the flips. Also, since S&C/RC is confirmed not a team, FMPOV knowing one of them is town, the bit about "why can't RC think we're worth votes" looks a lot more like potentially buddying RC than it does town!S&C giving RC a pass

[TheBrie]

I've been reading back over the game and I think that Scylla is scum with Kings.

Scylla didn't vote at all in the second half of day one. They said they scum read both Kings and Duck by PoE they didn't or push either way. They just seemed content to let it happen.

That means RC is town. I get that from a few other things too. He feels differnt to our last game. More gamesolvey and less like he's trying to convince everyone he's town.

Now, I looked over some of King's other games. There's not many, and they're all town, but they're a bit differnt to this one. He's been more single mined in this game than a town one I looked at. He was put out his opinions on all the players more, and wasn't so narrowly focused or convinced on his reads. That last post does sound more townie, but I already gave a reason why doing something stupid for scum isn't stupid if it makers you look townie.

Scylla saying he scumread Kings yesterday and not pushing Duck, does point away from this, but Kings wasn't getting lynched anyway.

I looked back at GL's scum play in Oddrole IV and this isn't the same. He seems more detached here, less aggressive. His arguments have been well constructed and I think he's town here.

I won't vote now though.

[TheBrie]

RC why did you hammer without hearing from S&C on either of our questions towards them

I was not at all expecting a double town flip and Carca's last posts were awful.
Sorry I fucked this up pretty bad.

SC+Brie
SC+GL
SC+Kings
Kings+GL

Right now I feel like it's GL+SC but I don't really have time to work on anything

don't vote.

RC, why did you initially think GL+SC? I mean it's theoretically possible, but I don't think GL is scum.

BTW, that new avatar is kind of cool, but the change is annoying me. It's almost like you're another person.

[RadiantCowbells]

Actually I've sort of gone backwards and S&C/GL might be the scumteam option I consider least likely?
Not because GL's pushing him, I would absolutely bus in this situation, but because me not being the nightkill doesn't make a whole lot of sense.
I specifically called that scumteam out, GL in general I don't think would want to keep me around, I have a good guess as to one member of S&C and they'd want me dead, and me being alive with that scumteam is just weird?

GL/Kings on the other hand doesn't kill me, they kill Vic. I already scumread S&C [whom GL seems to be leading on], and Vic independently scumread Kings, called out GL near the end, and townread me and seemed to TR scylla.
Kings/Scylla might think that I'm mislynchable or just less of a threat? killing me mandates a TheBrie kill as well I guess so this prevents them from clearing someone.

Actually TheBrie might be a good reason for any S&C scumteams to not kill me: they might have expected her to paranoia tunnel me and killing me makes Brie close to conftown.

Idk but I really don't think that S&C+GL leave me alive which makes Kings the default scum

[Scylla and Charybdis]

If it's Scylla/GL I was kept around because you thought I could mislynch me, not because you planned to fool me.

You realise who I am and there fore this comment is 100% a lie, right?

-Scylla

[Scylla and Charybdis]

I'm going to think about it I'm probably going to lock down my vote on RC.

-Scylla

[RadiantCowbells]

???
I don't think that either of you planned to fool me in endgame and neither of you have played in a way that suggests that you did.
GL pushing on you and you flipping scum makes me the obligatory nightkill so maybe the plan wasn't to mislynch me but I was never being brought to 3 way, and if GL is bussing you it's clearly not because you were expecting to fool me, no?
Sorry if your ego took a hit there [blank] but if my default is to scumread you I don't think I'm going to randomly start townreading you because you're scum and you shouldn't either.

Who do you think that I'm scum with?

[RadiantCowbells]

I've done my best to

[RadiantCowbells]

Whatever dude if you're town do what you want.

[Scylla and Charybdis]

VOTE: RC

RC claiming that I was hoping to mis lynch him then back peddles.
I'm happy here.

-Scylla

[GuiltyLion]

If it's Scylla/GL I was kept around because you thought I could mislynch me, not because you planned to fool me.

You realise who I am and there fore this comment is 100% a lie, right?

-Scylla

wait what? Does RC know who you are? How?

[Scylla and Charybdis]

If GL/King don't lynch you, then it's confirmed that we lynch in us.
You should have tried to pocket me, RC, would have probably worked better.

-Scylla

[Scylla and Charybdis]

wait what? Does RC know who you are? How?

RC knows everything that happens on MS.

-Scylla

[GuiltyLion]

and what happened to your Kingsmaker scumread? Can you reply to the question I've been asking you (356, 385) about why you were scumreading Kingsmaker and whether that changed with the flips?

[GuiltyLion]

Sorry if your ego took a hit there [blank] but if my default is to scumread you I don't think I'm going to randomly start townreading you because you're scum and you shouldn't either.

oh I guess this does imply RC knows who you are