Micro 731 | Scumteam UnPick II - Endgame

[Scylla and Charybdis]

Okay.

-Scylla

[GuiltyLion]

There is zero reason to drag this game out.

one reason is that reads/play from King would be really useful right now

why aren't you considering a GL/RC team?

[GuiltyLion]

If I had to vote right now I would vote you but I'm neither sure enough to want to place my vote down nor willing to risk GL voting and you selfhammering and me getting no say in F3.

what do you currently think of F3?

[Scylla and Charybdis]

why aren't you considering a GL/RC team?

Because I think it's RC/Brie.
It's plausible, but I town read you enough.

-Scylla

[GuiltyLion]

so King went from being a PoE scumread to town because he hasn't done anything today?

[GuiltyLion]

if King is town, that's all the more reason to drag this game out, so he can towntell and work with me (and hypothetical town!you) effectively

[RadiantCowbells]

GL < Brie <<<< Kings atm

but that's contingent on what Kings does when he comes back.

I think it's at least possible that he calls out his scumpartner here, probably more likely than him scum with you doing so, but it feels like it's an excuse to not be forced to vote Kings today.

[RadiantCowbells]

Vedith would know that he never wins 3 way after a Kings flip and if he expressed a scumread and everyone agreed the scumteam was Kings/X we would just lynch Kings.

So I feel like he's sorta obligated to not scumread Kings. I personally think it's sort of obvious that I am not scum with TheBrie given our interactions this game but I think you are the misvote that he is counting on here.

[RadiantCowbells]

I had a dream. In my dream, there were boxes and boxes of Kraft Dinner.

[Kingmaker]

here's a shotgun of some reread thoughts

@Vic

What are your thoughts on this?

You don't like them buddying up to Vic but meanwhile you are... buddying up to Vic? Kinda mixed signals there.

^not damning but this makes a lot of sense for a King-S&C team. Kings trying to get Vic to suspect Brie's vote on S&C. King - what was your angle here?

My angle was being kind of paranoid about Brie since people were starting to rule out her lynch for day 1 due to having less possible scumteams and at that moment I felt like she was posting without actual substance. In 54, 79 and 87 for example, she was saying something inconclusive, immediately following it with a but statement - effectively not stating any opinion or read. It's a tactic I've seen scum use early in the game before to give the illusion of scumhunting so that disturbed me a bit. Then she went from not really suspecting Scylla to voting Scylla in one post meanwhile buddying Vic so it became wee bit more suspicious.

That post was not to steer Vic to Brie but to understand why Vic didn't comment on someone sheeping him in contradictory behaviour, I wanted his answer because I did not fully trust him too at that point.

I dropped these suspicions once I started strongly scum reading Comm and by extension Doggo.

[Kingmaker]

Votes and table combined basically confirm there is one scum in [RC, Scylla] and one scum in [me, GL, Brie]

Before I start rereading and second guessing myself I'll say this - Scylla and Brie team looks more likely in my eyes. I don't think a replacing scum player who was in little risk of getting lynched would jump into spotlight and go hard after Comm knowing they would flip town and I've had no suspicions about GL throughout game while I had a few about Brie. Anyway, time to get reading.

[GuiltyLion]

King - I'd like your opinion on RC's argument against a S&C/Brie team, that they would have NK'd him.

[RadiantCowbells]

For the record I don't think it's impossible that Brie thought she could fool me and wanted to get one over on me since I was townreading her anyway.

It would explain S&C's insistence that he would always nightkill me if he had wanted to nightkill me but his partner refused.

@TheBrie, would you want to nightkill me as scum?

[Kingmaker]

I'm not particularly sure if any scum team combination would kill someone other than Vic regardless of possibilities. He was a competent player who had the ability to review and change his reads with the changing circumstances and looked like town in the process too - not the type of player you would want around in a lylo, regardless of his read on you. I'm absolutely sure I would have killed him if I was scum.

@RC
Why do you think Scylla couldn't survive my flip? It would be basically exact same situation as now except minus Brie, because she would be clear and obvious nightkill if I flipped scum.

[RadiantCowbells]

@RC
Why do you think Scylla couldn't survive my flip? It would be basically exact same situation as now except minus Brie, because she would be clear and obvious nightkill if I flipped scum.

I mean I think he could have survived your flip if he had done the day differently but post tunneling me I don't think he ever walks away from it.

[Kingmaker]

Is Scylla type of person who would go all in after one red flag?

I find it hard to make sense of his vote, town or scum.

[GuiltyLion]

I'm having a hard time making sense of them flipping from RC/King to RC/Brie as well

[GuiltyLion]

I feel like this game is gonna come down to me making the correct decision between King/Brie and I currently have no faith in my ability to make that correct decision. I'm feeling pretty good about scum!Scylla over scum!RC

[GuiltyLion]

Like, look at your post about lynching all three of me, doggo, King. I agree, if CK is scum that works pretty damn well. But you've picked literally the worst option of the three (from the PoV of someone outside of those three) for information should CK flip town. We shouldn't gamble the win on the chance for a perfect win. That's stupid.

And let's be real here. I've wanted to lynch dog for a week now, so when I say that the wagon on him is terribad, you should trust me that it's terribad.

I agree with this. In many ways Doggo is not the ideal lynch. Though replacements are always inconvenient and I don't like Doggo, I'm not lynching them unless something else of suspicion comes up, or it's the only option.

@RC, did you unvote to give a chance to the replacement, or because you secretly admit Vic is right here?

What Kingmaker is saying there seems to make sense.

Though if he were scum, that could be an attempt to make sure he does survive. Making his position so bad that he obviously isn't scum. But enough of coming up with crazy theories behind everyone's actions.

I don't think we're going to get any further with discussion without knowing anything. Duckdoggo is scummy and the best partner for Comm. So..

VOTE: DuckDoggo

Brie can you talk about how you went from the sentiment in 300 to the vote in 359?

And the bit in the second post about Kingmaker bothers me. The shade at King's slot doesn't really feel organic

[Kingmaker]

I'm having a hard time making sense of them flipping from RC/King to RC/Brie as well

That can be explained if he is scum, but if he is scum(and it really looks that way from here)... why do this all-in gamble in lylo instead of playing safer and pushing for a mislynch to win the game? My head hurts.

[GuiltyLion]

I'm having a hard time making sense of them flipping from RC/King to RC/Brie as well

That can be explained if he is scum, but if he is scum(and it really looks that way from here)... why do this all-in gamble in lylo instead of playing safer and pushing for a mislynch to win the game? My head hurts.

I guess for scum!S&C, they could see town sentiment would turn against them today between RC/myself, and if they push for the mislynch to win the game between me/King/Brie then it could potentially confirm that person as not their buddy, which would give a second "conf"town to have to NK or take to 3p in addition to RC.

That seems more likely to me than town!S&C feeling this certain of scum!RC over a pretty flimsy and unconvincing argument, and then barely making an effort to sway me.

[GuiltyLion]

also wait isn't RC the mislynch to win in LYLO?

[GuiltyLion]

That can be explained if he is scum, but if he is scum(and it really looks that way from here)... why do this all-in gamble in lylo instead of playing safer and pushing for a mislynch to win the game? My head hurts.

yeah explain to me what you mean by "all-in gamble instead of pushing for a mislynch"? At first pass I thought I understood what you meant in that 1v1ing RC is a "gamble" but thinking about it more it doesn't make any sense because he'd also be a mislynch to win at the same time.

[Kingmaker]

Yes? But wouldn't you feel more inclined to vote RC over Scylla if he were more conventional about his push on RC(trying to convince people instead of going all in at the day start)?

[GuiltyLion]

Yes? But wouldn't you feel more inclined to vote RC over Scylla if he were more conventional about his push on RC(trying to convince people instead of going all in at the day start)?

ah I gotcha, you were contrasting "make an immediate vote on RC and barely justify it" as the "gamble" vs "play like town normally would and try to be convincing and make a real scumcase on RC" as "pushing for the mislynch". Not contrasting voting RC vs voting somebody else