Micro 731 | Scumteam UnPick II - Endgame

[Creature]

Kingmaker replaces acidphoenix.

[Creature]

Votecount 1.1.2

Votecount 1.1.2

[0] Kingmaker
[1] Vic Sage - Duckdoggo
[1] Scylla and Charybdis - CommKnight
[1] CommKnight - Kingmaker
[0] GuiltyLion
[3] Duckdoggo - Vic Sage, Scylla and Charybdis, GuiltyLion
[0] TheBrie
[0] vungrzlfrys

[0] Nolynch

Not voting: TheBrie, vungrzlfrys

8 players are alive, therefore 5 votes is the majority.

Deadline:

paused for now

[Kingmaker]

Hey hey hey!

Table is practically useless until we get a scum flip or we get to a lylo situation, both of which are not gonna happen during d1 - so let's drop it now and never speak of it again today?

I'm okayish with my "old" vote but in case if I need to refresh it VOTE: CommKnight

[Kingmaker]

I'm willing to sheep this because I'm too lazy to do the analysis myself
VOTE: vic

And ig don't worry too much about Day1 being abnormal. People will probably defend themselves and others the best they can, so we can prob still work on those.

Can you start defending yourself so that we can work on that?

[TheBrie]

@Kingmaker you're talking to Duckdoggo right? Not Vic? And I agree, that kind of sheeping is terribly lazy. And now that Comm isn't even voting there isn't worse. i don't want to put Ducko to L-1 yet though. We've got a few more days, and there still isn't much to go on.

[TheBrie]

Nah, probs not scum. Just stupid.

In order to be sure that none of the people he cleared is scum, we need to either lynch scum (which would be the point of lynching based on scum/townreads) or lynch me, ap, S&C, and one of his clears, and have all of those flip town.



So we have to lose, but we'll be absolutely sure of the scumteam if we do.

On the other hand, GL and CK both seem fairly town to me for scumhunting reasons.

I'm not sure I understand this perfectly. I see that lynching scum would clear some of us, but I don't follow the second part. Lynching a persons only possible partners and having them flip town would clear them, but I don't think that's what you're saying.

[Kingmaker]

Yup I was talking to Doggo. I don't think calling a self proclaimed lazy vote lazy and voting them for it is terribly hardworking either though, so meh.

I don't see any merit in rushing the first lynch as we are not going to get any information out of it.

[Kingmaker]

Nah, probs not scum. Just stupid.

In order to be sure that none of the people he cleared is scum, we need to either lynch scum (which would be the point of lynching based on scum/townreads) or lynch me, ap, S&C, and one of his clears, and have all of those flip town.



So we have to lose, but we'll be absolutely sure of the scumteam if we do.

On the other hand, GL and CK both seem fairly town to me for scumhunting reasons.

I'm not sure I understand this perfectly. I see that lynching scum would clear some of us, but I don't follow the second part. Lynching a persons only possible partners and having them flip town would clear them, but I don't think that's what you're saying.

He is basically saying if he divides up suspect pool like that and if scum is in the second pool, we will use all our mislynches in first pool before getting to the second pool and as a result lose the game. Or that's what I understood.

Also @Scylla, pay close attention to my posts. I don't SR TheBrie. I TR her because it's highly unlikely she's scum and I have no real reason to SR her atm.

I was posting half asleep, and meant town, not scum.
Saying you town read someone because it's highly unlikely that they are scum is just bad imo.
It's gamblers fallacy, or whatever you call it.

The point of revealing who the picks were was to give us the possibilities of scum, not to read players from it.

I suggest you change your view on the Brie and stop acting like it's a town slot for that reason alone.

-Scylla

Between this post and the one directly after. I'll tell you what I'll do.

VOTE: Scylla

Gambler's fallacy. That was mentioned to me before. But you know who mentioned it? Scum. When i had multiple townies pegged and the entire scum team pegged into a smaller pool.

I'll reconsider my read on TheBrie in TOMORROW's stage. But in today's I'm interested in getting 2 lynches that will more likely both be on scum.

Are you looking for reads or excuses? Because "Only scum uses Gambler's Fallacy arguement" arguement is Reverse Gambler's Fallacy, which is actually chuckleworthy if nothing else. It's definitely not a read though.

[GuiltyLion]

I'm willing to sheep this because I'm too lazy to do the analysis myself
VOTE: vic

And ig don't worry too much about Day1 being abnormal. People will probably defend themselves and others the best they can, so we can prob still work on those.

this is a bad and lazy vote, I think vic is town

UNVOTE:

VOTE: duckdoggo

Obviously
Is it bad just because you townread them?

yes

Do you think Vic is scum, and if no, why are you voting him

[GuiltyLion]

Also @Scylla, pay close attention to my posts. I don't SR TheBrie. I TR her because it's highly unlikely she's scum and I have no real reason to SR her atm.

I was posting half asleep, and meant town, not scum.
Saying you town read someone because it's highly unlikely that they are scum is just bad imo.
It's gamblers fallacy, or whatever you call it.

The point of revealing who the picks were was to give us the possibilities of scum, not to read players from it.

I suggest you change your view on the Brie and stop acting like it's a town slot for that reason alone.

-Scylla

Between this post and the one directly after. I'll tell you what I'll do.

VOTE: Scylla

Gambler's fallacy. That was mentioned to me before. But you know who mentioned it? Scum. When i had multiple townies pegged and the entire scum team pegged into a smaller pool.

I'll reconsider my read on TheBrie in TOMORROW's stage. But in today's I'm interested in getting 2 lynches that will more likely both be on scum.

Gambler's fallacy is assuming that future probabilities are influenced/affected by past outcomes of independent events. So I don't see a Gambler's fallacy in CK's post

However, the way he retaliated with a vote and a "last time someone said that they were scum" argument is terrible. S&C looks town to me, and CK didn't actually address any of the real substance of S&C's argument/post, instead latching onto a (incorrectly applied) buzzword

[GuiltyLion]

I like Kingmaker's entrance

town: {S&C, Kingmaker, Vic}
null: {The Brie, vung-slot-that-hasn't-posted-yet}
scummier than null: {CK, DuckDoggo}

[GuiltyLion]

actually I kinda feel like DuckDoggo might be town with scum avoiding voting them

let's see if this wagon can get any traction

VOTE: CommKnight

[TheBrie]

actually I kinda feel like DuckDoggo might be town with scum avoiding voting them

let's see if this wagon can get any traction

VOTE: CommKnight

Commknight as scum? He seems towny. But He also admitted (not in this game) to being a somewhat unconventional player. And I just lost a game to two scum that I didn't seriously suspect all game. So I don't trust myself.

But I agree that his more recent posts aren't so great.

What exactly are you saying about Duckdoggo? Wouldn't scum be more likely to vote him if he was town?

[Duckdoggo]

Nah, probs not scum. Just stupid.

In order to be sure that none of the people he cleared is scum, we need to either lynch scum (which would be the point of lynching based on scum/townreads) or lynch me, ap, S&C, and one of his clears, and have all of those flip town.



So we have to lose, but we'll be absolutely sure of the scumteam if we do.

On the other hand, GL and CK both seem fairly town to me for scumhunting reasons.

I can't really recall my other games where someone said something about scumhunting other than my first newbie game which was like 2 months ago I believe. Anyway, so there was a player who was scum and said stuff about other people are scumhunting so they don't look scummy to him, and I was like, no way this guy is scum my gut told me the opposite but yeah, just saying, I'm not putting you or anyone in my strong town list just because someone mentions that another player is scumhunting=town. scumhunting= pro town, correct. but of course a scum would have to play as town but there is a tactic that scum use, which is to have other towns feel praised by someone (typically scum) in order to be pocketed.

Catching on the posts, so please don't assume this is like a finalize post I made overall from my absent, I just want to point out that you mentioning other people are town ish because of scum hunting is a little pinging for me. It could be the fact that I lost in that game and got scarred for it. If you're sided with town, hope you can understand.

-ST

[Duckdoggo]

Catching up*

[Duckdoggo]

Hey hey hey!

Table is practically useless until we get a scum flip or we get to a lylo situation, both of which are not gonna happen during d1 - so let's drop it now and never speak of it again today?

I'm okayish with my "old" vote but in case if I need to refresh it VOTE: CommKnight

The table won't help us right now? how come? Could you explain to me the examples/situations how the table won't help and can only be of a help later on? I mean I know it can help later on but why not now?

I'm new to this kind of theme and first hydra as well, so excuse me for my noobness.

[Duckdoggo]

Yup I was talking to Doggo. I don't think calling a self proclaimed lazy vote lazy and voting them for it is terribly hardworking either though, so meh.

I don't see any merit in rushing the first lynch as we are not going to get any information out of it.

A first lynch with a chart what we have now won't get information?

Ok now im lost, then whats the point of the table?

-ST

[Duckdoggo]

I like Kingmaker's entrance

town: {S&C, Kingmaker, Vic}
null: {The Brie, vung-slot-that-hasn't-posted-yet}
scummier than null: {CK, DuckDoggo}

Curious why do you think I'm scum?

[Duckdoggo]

I like Kingmaker's entrance

town: {S&C, Kingmaker, Vic}
null: {The Brie, vung-slot-that-hasn't-posted-yet}
scummier than null: {CK, DuckDoggo}

Curious why do you think I'm scum?

Oh nvm, lazy voting, gotcha. Man i need to start saying -st so yall dont get confused xD

[CommKnight]

I like Kingmaker's entrance

town: {S&C, Kingmaker, Vic}
null: {The Brie, vung-slot-that-hasn't-posted-yet}
scummier than null: {CK, DuckDoggo}

Lol, I'm chuckling at your reads because it's basically a reverse of mine.

Town: GuiltyLion, TheBrie & DuckDoggo
Null: Vung (seriously this slot needs to figure its' shit out.)
Scummy: S&C, Kingmaker & Vic.

The only read I agree with you on is Vung and that's because they haven't even posted! You SR me, I TR you. You SR Duck and maybe TheBrie, I TR both of them. You TR those 3 and it's like no. They're the highest on my list of possible scummies.

I think we need to lynch in S&C, Kingmaker and Vic first here to get any sort of chance of hitting scum. Lynching outside of those 3 is just going to be a mislynch. Show me why the 3 of them are town. Make a case for them. Because from where I stand they're the 3 candidates for scum. I wouldn't be surprised if both scum are in the 3.

[Kingmaker]

Hey hey hey!

Table is practically useless until we get a scum flip or we get to a lylo situation, both of which are not gonna happen during d1 - so let's drop it now and never speak of it again today?

I'm okayish with my "old" vote but in case if I need to refresh it VOTE: CommKnight

The table won't help us right now? how come? Could you explain to me the examples/situations how the table won't help and can only be of a help later on? I mean I know it can help later on but why not now?

I'm new to this kind of theme and first hydra as well, so excuse me for my noobness.

Partnership analysis without no flip info is completely basing your thoughts on assumptions - if those assumptions are false then all your analysis was useless and you were only biasing yourself to one outcome and ignoring all the others.

This mechanic(and the table we have thanks to it) only helps us at partnership analysis, which should be avoided until we have confirmed alignment flips. Before that, not actually useful.

Yup I was talking to Doggo. I don't think calling a self proclaimed lazy vote lazy and voting them for it is terribly hardworking either though, so meh.

I don't see any merit in rushing the first lynch as we are not going to get any information out of it.

A first lynch with a chart what we have now won't get information?

Ok now im lost, then whats the point of the table?

-ST

First lynch of day 1 does not flip immediately hence we won't get information from it until end of day 1.

[TheBrie]

CommKnight, are you saying you town read me for other reasons that PoE?

As for the other reads, I'd really like it if both Comm and Guilty put up some more reasons. I'm seeing good points on the little from both sides and I'm feeling a little lost.

[TheBrie]

Yup I was talking to Doggo. I don't think calling a self proclaimed lazy vote lazy and voting them for it is terribly hardworking either though, so meh.

I don't see any merit in rushing the first lynch as we are not going to get any information out of it.

I just realized I don't understand the second half of that. Are you saying that if we would get information, we should rush it?

[Kingmaker]

If we would get information it would be debatable since it is practically a free lynch, we lynch - we get flip- we continue the day without scum making a night kill. That's not the case though.

[TheBrie]

Okay, I follow that. So basically, we want to lynch someone right before the deadline. But make sure it doesn't get stalled. That sound okay with everyone?