Newbie 1815: Prisons [Endgame]

[JaeReed]

Is osuka/paul possible?

[skitter30]

His ISO is here (micro 730).

He did like nothing early day1, thus putting him into my vig pool. His reaction to that is actually rather different than his reaction to getting lynched here. He didn't have a problem with getting vigged if it would advance the game. Here, he seems kinda indifferent to his lynch. Like, his reaction there was kinda similar to Aphix's reaction to his wagon there, and I should've townread him for it (spoiler: he got vigged). But here, he's been talked about as a tertiary scurmead, and he's been in people's lynchpools for a few days, and he just seems indifferent. He isn't responding, he isn't trying to get as much info out of his lynch as possible, he isn't trying to sort the people pushing him.

He actually seems different.

Paul
DP
Tatters

[skitter30]

@Jae: I hope you feel better.

Off the cuff, Paul/DP makes sense to me. I have to think through the other ones, but give me like half an hour to do stuff. I'll be back.

[BlackVoid]

Conflicted. They've both been working in tandem for most of the day phase which would be a bold move for scum. Paul went so far as to say that if Osuka is town here, they should hydra together. Osuka for his part didn't really seem to be sorting Paul and I thought him not really engaging with any of skitter's points was a bit weird. It's possible he was confident in that townread because he's been "working with" Paul throughout the whole game. I suppose it's possible but more likely Paul is town if Osuka is scum and he

knew

Paul was town.

[BlackVoid]

I get weird vibes from Osuka's ISO because I think he's overreacting to everything. I'm not sure if this is a playstyle thing or if he's trying to fake confidence. 140 and 172 is what I'm talking about. I really dislike 183 as well. It seems like he's trying to make it seem like JaeReed is attaching to himself (Osuka) as opposed to genuinely thinking "Jae could be buddying but I don't think he is." The "if anything I should be wary" phrasing is something I don't like. I'm not sure which post you are talking about skitter where you say he got mad at MWAP. I didn't find any of his end of D1 posting to be a towntell.

[osuka]

okay, that claim changes things. I have no idea who to lynch and there are two hours to deadline so this is gonna be a shitshow

i agree with skitter in that bv is acting pretty blatantly town but i've already even had a scumpartner do that so I'm not willing to clear any unclaimed slots just yet. this might be the way to go?
It's shitty, but I don't wanna lynch paul, who i think is still town.

dp looks a bit scummier by poe but i'm not very sure about it. still a hard read because of low content, so all of what i said before still applies here
aphix is still townie but gets knocked down a few points, again by poe. I'm now at the point where i'd hammer aphix but only if it came down to that vs. a nl

[skitter30]

I think the 'overreaction' thing is a playstyle thing for him, tbh.

The oddest thing I see about Osuka is that Paul is a strong townread, and I can't get him to elaborate on why. He also hasn't really been engaging in like any of my points on why I think Paul is scum (that's why I'm having trouble narrowing it down; people haven't really been interacting with me).

I think it was 276, but I'm not getting the same town!vibes now as I did the first time I read it. He hasn't really done anything alignment indicative this whole game besides for that for much of the game.

His case on Aphix was awful (I think I wrote a wall ripping it apart that I never posted), but so was everyone else's, so I can't really single him out for that.

I don't know if DP/Osuka makes sense, because of 414; DP has been in his scumpool for ages. However, he never really pushed him. That's the thing. People weren't really pushing anyone, so it's hard to read people.

One thing that slightly bothers me is

Tatters gains town points for the display of coherence and cohesion in 380-382

Those posts weren't coherent or cohesive at all, and I actually did the take the time to show why. This may have been a pocketing attempt, and he recently very much dislikes tatters, but doesn't even list her in his 'willing to lynch post'.

I guess Paul is still scum to me, Aphix is still town, I'm willing to believe Jae for now so I don't want to lynch there, and I don't really know how to differentiate between Osuka/DP/Tatters because I don't think they've interacted enough for me to sort them properly (which I've been saying for like a week now, sigh).

[JaeReed]

I get weird vibes from Osuka's ISO because I think he's overreacting to everything. I'm not sure if this is a playstyle thing or if he's trying to fake confidence. 140 and 172 is what I'm talking about. I really dislike 183 as well. It seems like he's trying to make it seem like JaeReed is attaching to himself (Osuka) as opposed to genuinely thinking "Jae could be buddying but I don't think he is." The "if anything I should be wary" phrasing is something I don't like. I'm not sure which post you are talking about skitter where you say he got mad at MWAP. I didn't find any of his end of D1 posting to be a towntell.

Wrt osuka there was a game I think I linked here with a policy lynch on a lurker D1 where he was scum. His shitposting and general interactions with that wagon felt like he thought it was a good wagon and as a spectator I tr him for it. That was what I was referencing with my rvs vote and has me harboring a fair amount of paranoia when someone says osuka's reactions are good because I know he can fake that.

What about viability of osuka/dp here? I think the best way to sort osuka might be through interactions so if we can be sure he's town our chances go up significantly.

Don't like how he was influencing the thread towards me subtly from the catchup posts.

[skitter30]

Based on whose online, I don't even know if we have the votes to logistically pull off a lynch tbh. Aphix could go threw logistically, but all the people I don't like are on it, and I think he's town, and I don't want to vote there. I don't think the other wagons are logistically possible with only me/Jae/BV/Osuka online.

[skitter30]

That was what I was referencing with my rvs vote and has me harboring a fair amount of paranoia when someone says osuka's reactions are good because I know he can fake that.

Interesting. OK. Then my townread has kinda degraded, because that's the one thing he was town for; he was null independently of that. I need to ISO him now.

[osuka]

One thing that slightly bothers me is

Tatters gains town points for the display of coherence and cohesion in 380-382

Those posts weren't coherent or cohesive at all, and I actually did the take the time to show why. This may have been a pocketing attempt, and he recently very much dislikes tatters, but doesn't even list her in his 'willing to lynch post'.

I guess Paul is still scum to me, Aphix is still town, I'm willing to believe Jae for now so I don't want to lynch there, and I don't really know how to differentiate between Osuka/DP/Tatters because I don't think they've interacted enough for me to sort them properly (which I've been saying for like a week now, sigh).

I mean if anything, tatters never was a master of the language. 388 was an attempt to throw the wagon into overdrive that just never worked; if the people behind the wagon "feel towny", the wagon has an easier time getting off the ground.

I've said this time and again, paul's tone sounds like town paul. His frustration is genuine (even though it doesn't sound like it - i got his slot mislynched for that (among other things) in viewtopic.php?f=11&t=72479), and he apparently just really is kind of a sheepy player as town when there's someone that will take over the game, which i saw happen in this game

[BlackVoid]

Osuka/Pepper is probably my best guess. I don't see anything ruling them out as scum together. Putting a partner in a lynchpool is common enough that I wouldn't consider it clearing. Osuka was part of Pepper's initial suspect pile but a secondary suspect and then Pepper forgets about him and never brings it up again.

One other thing about Pepper I forgot to mention: he seemed to be discrediting Tatters' suspicion of him by saying that Tatters was townreading the active posters, then sort of gives her a tutorial on looking for motivations as opposed to activity. But nothing in Tatters' posts suggested that she was using activity as a basis for her reads and it seemed entirely co-incidental that her reads at that point were townreading the higher post-count players. 397 is what I'm talking about.

Hopefully Aphix shows up and we can pull off a Pepper lynch.

[NotTheRealPaul]

I'm here.

UNVOTE: because i dont remember who im voting

I'll go DP bcuz aphix wont go through. IDK about osuka rn, I'd have to reread his ISO but can't do that till weekend and that's too late obviously.

For those wondering why I can post rn is because I finished my math test 5 min early so I decided to check in. I should have a bit of time right after school though so I'll try to read his ISO then and let u know if he could be added to lynchpool.

Also ik he wasnt in my lynchpool this morning and its cuz the only ISOs I read were tatters, DP, and aphix.

i just realized i contradicted myself in this post. the earlier portion was written before I thought through things.

@skitters has your tr of aphix changed since replace in? like the reasons? or if i go back and look at OG catchup will it have the same reasons as now. If no then can u sell me on why aphix is town?

[JaeReed]

Game linked in 735 is what I was talking about. There's a train image there in osuka's iso and I'd just probably read around that area for his scum range surrounding policy mislynches. I'm wary that it's just me being paranoid because I know he has a decent scum game though. Also concerned because I think osuka is a good town player and I think following pushing that policy lynch on ThinkBig in the other game he would have been more cautious of a D1 policy here but he wasn't. He could just be a fan of policy lynches, though.
One thing in his favour is that I think his tonal difference from SUPER AGGRESSION and beating ppl down to here is big enough that I was thinking he might be town here off that alone. It's a small point since I know that can change from game to game but it is one so I might as well air it now that I know I'm dead tonight.

[skitter30]

@osuka: I don't understand what you're trying to say about 388? The aphix wagon? So you weren't actually townreading her, but just said that to make his wagon look better? Why would you want to throw that wagon into overdrive? It was already at L-1?

And I'm very familiar with town!Paul, and have played with him twice, once as town and once as scum. He got mislynched for the sheepiness in my scum game, and I correctly townread him in the town game to the point where I got him universally townread and talked other people out of mislynching him like three times after he proposed doing something anti-town. I'm saying I can differentiate it, and this isn't it.

He especially isn't acting the way I'd expect him to act around town!me. Like look at viewtopic.php?f=50&t=71874&user_select% ... &start=200, cntrl + F my name and see what he thinks of town!me. I'd pull quotes, but there's too many of them. Especially 232, 486, 1189, 1224, and 1228. He isn't interacting the same way here, and it's just really off.

[BlackVoid]

One thing in his favour is that I think his tonal difference from SUPER AGGRESSION and beating ppl down to here is big enough that I was thinking he might be town here off that alone. It's a small point since I know that can change from game to game but it is one so I might as well air it now that I know I'm dead tonight.

Can you go over this a bit more. I did get those vibes from the way he attacked Tatters and MWAP (i.e. hyperaggressive tone).

[skitter30]

@BV: I just read his ISO around the TB policylynch in 1810 and the way he interacted around MWAP. Jae's right. He was more aggressive there. It's toned down here around MWAP than around TB in 1810. It feels different. He was hyper-pushing it there. The two situations aren't quite the same, as there he was pushing a PL on town!TB who has a known meta of lurking as scum, and here he was dealing with someone who is throwing. I'm still having a slightly difficult time seeing his reaction to MWAP as being from scum who knows she's flipping town. I dunno.

[skitter30]

VOTE: Docter Pepper

[JaeReed]

One thing in his favour is that I think his tonal difference from SUPER AGGRESSION and beating ppl down to here is big enough that I was thinking he might be town here off that alone. It's a small point since I know that can change from game to game but it is one so I might as well air it now that I know I'm dead tonight.

Can you go over this a bit more. I did get those vibes from the way he attacked Tatters and MWAP (i.e. hyperaggressive tone).

IIRC he got a warning for word choice. I don't wanna go too much into that but you can skim his posts and probably get the jist there. Was constantly berating reads/wagon choices as [redacted] if memory serves.

[skitter30]

@Paul: The townread of Aphix is for gamestate reasons (scum was either bussing him or both scum were on him - more likely imo) + frustration at town not getting info out of his lynch.

I dunno. Maybe I'm tunneling Paul and it's just DP/Tatters.

[skitter30]

Why is scum!DP so resistant to a Paul lynch?

[BlackVoid]

VOTE: DoctorPepper

I skimmed over that game and I'm not sure what to make of it. He was definitely more aggressive there. I'm not really sure what's alignment-indicative for Osuka. He has that sort of playstyle that I naturally tend to scumread. I'd say we flip Pepper and then go from there tomorrow. That'll also give me a chance to re-read everything during the night.

[osuka]

not my preferred lynch but also by far not mt least preferred.

VOTE: dp

[osuka]

Why is scum!DP so resistant to a Paul lynch?

this is a good question though i'd like to ask the same thing about town dp. Why would dp not want paul lynched in either universe?

[skitter30]

That's L-1.

DP, if you're around, a claim is nice, but since we know the PRs already, I don't think it matters too much.

Assuming no ccs to Jae:

ScumDP flip:
Jae
BV/aphix
tatters/osuka ---- viable partners here and below
Paul

Town!DP, assuming Jae is not cc'd:
Jae
BV
aphix --- viable scumteam here and below
osuka/tatters
paul

paul most likely, aphix least likely. if you don't want to think about scum!paul, then aphix has to be considered, but i'm pretty confident on town!aphix