Newbie 1815: Prisons [Endgame]

[skitter30]

@archwing:

Again, just quoting your replies in 991 to keep this manageable:

Primarily, he's a townread due to meta points. You, Aphix, and iirc, BV have pointed out to me that meta points aren't exactly valuable. So, forgive me, and let me come back into this objectively. I will re read MWAP and DP lynch moments, and see what comes of it. But, nothing specifically from this game alone shouts town!osuka, but it's this game in the context of other games.

I get that, but this doesn't look so good when you initially townlean him on meta, move him down to a scumread after reading this game, and then move him back up to a strong townread after I say he doesn't look that bad based on meta, but you can't point to anything specifically from this game.

I mean, osuka has 135 posts. I open his ISO and ctrl+f for 'paul', and I get 83 hits. That implies that at least some of his posts are not about Paul. So, I dunno if this is such a valid argument. I did however glance through his ISO with this argument in mind, and you are correct that quite a few of his serious posts *were* about Paul, but I wouldn't say that 'almost any post of osuka's that has some content also contains town!paul'. That's a bit of an exaggeration imo.

Fair, and honestly it probably comes from a place of laziness. let me look into this as I re-read osuka. I'll try to come back in a day-ish with a better read.

KK. I'm always going to go back and check claims like that though

as for the JK claim, I feel like I have said why. I think that DPvNTRP is SvT because of the implications if it were SvS. I suppose a proof by contradiction scenario? I look at it via were I scum, how would this situation play out? pretty bad. Since DP knows that I am not scum, he can make this play. This would not be a play to his scum partner, because it puts that partnership out in the open, in a reference-able post. I've never been scum before, but I feel like this would be a terrible play, by putting a paper trail on that partnership.

I mean, it's basically WIFOM on our end, and can be looked at either way. The fact that you were pushing it as a towntell earlier is kinda what's bothering me here tbh.

@skitter applied math? wtf is wrong with you. i should vote you based on that alone ffs. lol. Math is what is kicking my ass... quantum, EM... the math just sucks.

Math is the fun part :p Quantum was evil and kicked my ass, but I somehow managed to pull a decent grade out of that class. Still not sure how I did that lol.

p-edit: Hi BV

[BlackVoid]

@Skitter, I'm at a similar place. I do want to make sure we're correct in ruling out Aphix before we end the day. What do you think of his posts today, his push on Osuka, and his interaction with the new replacements?

Regarding Osuka, his last few posts continuing to call my push bad/misreppy where I think it makes perfect sense just makes me more confident in wanting to flip him. I feel like like town would understand that my reasoning is valid and recognize that he just winded up being in the wrong place at the wrong time with how he was reluctant to lynch DP but pushed my slot and JaeReed and that from an outside perspective, it looks scummy and explain why. Only problem is I don't know him well enough to know if that's something he'd recognize. His posts feel pretty detached from the gamestate though and I'm not sure what it says about his alignment.

Archwing's posts continue to be weird. I did think that him looking over other games was townish since it's less common for scum to go to that effort but I'm not really sold that the way he did it was particularly towny.

[BlackVoid]

I don't know if I'm getting conf-biased with Osuka but the last time I second-guessed a scumread because they were being annoying/frustrating, they endgamed me and that was the worst loss I had as town because I really didn't feel like they deserved it.

[BlackVoid]

Some of the stuff that's been tipping the scales for me towards scum-Osuka over scum-Paul.

189 - I liked this post. Paul made it when Osuka was not scumreading him or attacking him in any way and I thought it was a good point with regard to how Osuka backed off. You know scum-Paul better than I do but I felt like it was an unnecessary thing to say as scum (potentially antagonize Osuka) but a very good point to make as town.

The Aphix push was started by Paul and Osuka was just piggybacking off of it. How likely is it for scum-Paul to take the initiative to lead a wagon? Personally, I found the timing of Osuka's jump to Aphix a lot safer (if scum, he'd be helping his town buddy Paul push the lynch - that worldview makes more sense).

[skitter30]

Aphix is kinda abrasive and his posts are kinda meh too. But he's never scum with DP so he isn't scum here. This is kinda like how I was saying Paul was town because he couldn't be scum with Drixx. Aphix isn't a DP partner so he isn't scum.

Osuka kinda seems out of it, and seems kinda obsessed with your slot, I don't know why. I do think he feels different than his scum meta, but he looks kinda bad regardless of that. He was just kinda floating along for a lot of the game, and his retalitory attack against you is kinda bad. I don't remember in the ISOs I read if he ever actually was attacked as scum, so I dunno if his natural reaction is to lash out at the person scumreading him. It's kinda OMGUS. He might just be town and annoyed and thinks that you are actually misrepping him here, I dunno.

And I agree with you on Archwing, except that he actually played in one of those games lol. The RM push is bad. The 'I can't quote town!osuka without pulling quotes that promote town!paul' is bad. The 'I'm town because of DP's fake JK thing' is bad.

I'm feeling kinda conf-biased with Archwing tbh too, which is why I kept on trying to step back, but every time I did, Paul/Archwing posted something sketchy :/

[BlackVoid]

What do you think of lynching Osuka first and going for Archwing if he's town?

[BlackVoid]

I'm going to sleep on this so I'm absolutely sure. If nothing changes, I'm voting Osuka before I leave for work tomorrow at 11AM. Should be back by the evening well before deadline but I'd rather just end the day with a few hours to spare. Don't want the same situation as D2 where we're wondering if people will even show up to vote.

[skitter30]

Me? I said that's what I want to do like ten times lol, even as recently as 998. I'm just slightly worried that it won't happen that way, especially since I'm almost for sure the night-kill here and I won't be around to push that.

That's why I'm pushing Archwing first. But if I really can't get people to follow me to Archwing, I'm OK with osuka, so long as people *strongly* consider archwing tomorrow.

And yeah, I'm gong to asleep at deadline lol, but I'll be around for much of tomorrow.

[BlackVoid]

Yeah, I know you said that. I guess I was talking to myself and hoping you'd have some really good insight as to why one of them is town...

[BlackVoid]

And part of the reason is that I expect Osuka to be more likely than Archwing to slip away in 3-way lylo if I'm dead after you considering his winrate as scum so far.

[BlackVoid]

Archwing's RM push

is

bad though. @Archwing, your focus has not been on avoiding an Osuka lynch. You literally said you'd be okay with lynching him despite thinking that he'll flip town and in the next post you say that your focus has been on not lynching Osuka.

[BlackVoid]

Do you think my points in 1003 make sense?

[skitter30]

And part of the reason is that I expect Osuka to be more likely than Archwing to slip away in 3-way lylo if I'm dead after you considering his winrate as scum so far.

You and aphix think he's scum. You'd just need to convince RM, and I don't think osuka can convince RM to no-lynch there.

I guess I'd feel better about it if I knew exactly what RM's reads are.

@RM: Can you give us a readslist please?

I've been trying to get Paul slot lynched since I replaced in so I'm not confident it will happen without me tbh.

[skitter30]

Do you think my points in 1003 make sense?

Yeah, I actually agree with you. I couldn't really find an analogue for that post in that mini. I don't think a post like that is outside of his scumrange though, and it doesn't really outweigh like everything else his slot has done.

I thought Paul's Aphix push was really bad actually, and kinda felt like scum!paul felt like he could take the initiative to lead pushes given the activity in this game, especially since his partner was kinda lurking.

[BlackVoid]

You said you read through Osuka's scumgame. Did you read Archwing's town ISO in it? I'm curious to hear whether you thought his play here is different?

[skitter30]

Going to asleep now lol. I'll check it out tom.

[Randomnamechange]

How was Osuka's play around the DP lynch town? I explained to skitter why I thought it was scummy so maybe explain why it's town? You keep making general statements without explaining anything and that's hard to read.

Scum don't have a reason to unvote there. The speed of the revote implies it was genuine rather than for towncred. Especially it doesnt make sense as a bus as commiting at that point makes much more sense.

sounds like a lot of support for osuka. with only one scum left... could be tvt. could be pocketing.

who would be pocketing who?

@BV: I'm basically at:

You and aphix are town. RM is likely town. I'm not sold on it, but considering we have two lynches and Archwing/osuka to deal with, I don't wanna lynch them. I'm OK with either osuka or Archwing, would prefer Archwing. If one of them townflips, I believe the other one should always be the lynch tomorrow.

I dunno. Both of them look incredibly bad atm. Even just from there posts on this page. I want to lynch both.

I'm willing to compromise on Archwing today.

my reads list atm is
{Skitter}
{BV}
{osuka}
{archwing}
{aphix}

[BlackVoid]

VOTE: Osuka

My best guess at this point. If not, I think it's Archwing. @Archwing, you should vote. The day ends tonight and it's unlikely anyone outside you or Osuka is going to get lynched. Your randomidget case is really unconvincing. I'm not 100% on Osuka but I'll be here all evening after I come back from work to continue discussing. If everyone could say when they are available before deadline, that would be cool.

[Randomnamechange]

VOTE: archwing

[osuka]

i'm sorry guys, I really wanna sub out because i don't have the time nor motivation to play this right now. I won't do it because there's 16 hours to deadline. If I make it to tomorrow, there's a very good chance i'll replace out.

I don't understand why bv is so widely townread. His posts are literally just information and bouncing questions to people but that's really not AI in my experience. I know this sounds like a flip flop from what i had previously but i just skimmed his iso and looking at it now, it rubs me the wrong way

[osuka]

he also goes back on scumreading the paul slot because he apparently just really wants to get me lynched for whatever reason. I set myself up, I guess? Shitty game on my part

[osuka]

I don't think archwing is scum and i realize this is prob gonna get me lynched, but here goes

VOTE: blackvoid

[skitter30]

@osuka: I'm sorry to hear that you aren't enjoying this I liked playing with you!

I actually think those last few posts come from town. There's like zero motivation for scum!osuka to start a BV thing here when he can just go along with Archwing and push RM tomorrow.

I strongly disagree with you about BV tbh.

[skitter30]

I think, atm, the vc looks like this:

osuka: Aphix, BV
Archwing: me, RM
BV: osuka

Not voting: Archwing.

I would vote osuka over a no-lynch, would prefer archwing. I'm not voting BV here ever.

We have ten hours.

[aphix]

Or, he votes BV. Pushes a no lynch. Which isn't the best for scum here, therefor he gets town points. Otherwise he is only looking at archwing then him as the general consensus, which as scum, means he has to break that up. It's just about the only safe play to not be on a town lynch here.