Newbie 1815: Prisons [Endgame]

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Post Post #975 (ISO) » Thu Sep 14, 2017 8:48 pm

Post by skitter30 »

Hey, happy cake day :)

I think I explained where I'm at in my last two posts, but if you wanna talk to me about any of it, go for it.
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Post Post #976 (ISO) » Thu Sep 14, 2017 9:16 pm

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I'm in a similar place as you with regard to Archwing/Osuka except I lean more towards Osuka as scum. Interactions-wise, Paul/Pepper does make some sense. Paul's coaching of Pepper was weird and the constant quoting of Pepper points more towards partners than away after understanding Paul's scum mentality and seeing how he engaged you in his scumgame. I was definitely townleaning Paul while I spectated that game. I also agree meta-wise that Osuka's play here looks different than it does in his scumgame.

The major argument in favor of Osuka being the final scum is that I see the way Pepper superficially attacked Osuka while focusing elsewhere, and the fact that Pepper seemed to be obviously buddying Paul and pushing Paul's scumreads and on balance, I think I find the Osuka interactions more likely to be scum to scum than the Paul ones which I think make sense as scum interacting with a townie.

I do want to hash this out though because I'd much prefer just ending the game today rather than going into lylo where you never know what might happen. I think what'll best help me is if you point out any reasons why Osuka might be town.

The fact that he's less aggressive and controlling than in his scumgames isn't fully convincing to me because I know he's been on V/LA and that would affect how he engages with the game.

When I point out my strongest reason for scumreading him, he screams misrep but does absolutely nothing to question me further or even ask why you are townreading me. He also leaves it really ambiguous - I'm not even sure if he's saying that my "misrep" points to me being scum. He also never addresses my questions about why he was scumreading Ciara in the first place. I laid it all out pretty clearly and pointed out why his selective pushing of my slot and JaeReed but not DP is scummy in light of the flip and the only response he has is "misrep!" If I'm wrong here, it would definitely help if you read over my case and show me where you think I'm going wrong.
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Post Post #977 (ISO) » Thu Sep 14, 2017 9:19 pm

Post by BlackVoid »

and are the major points.
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Post Post #978 (ISO) » Thu Sep 14, 2017 9:27 pm

Post by BlackVoid »

Distilling it down to a single point, I don't see any town motivation in trying to divert away from a Pepper lynch on the basis of low content/hard to read while being okay with a Ciara lynch especially when Pepper and Ciara were both in his POE pool. I don't see why pressuring Pepper for content was a bad idea when it apparently wasn't a bad idea to bully MWAP into posting content. I think it's weird as heck that he's fine lynching two people that I know to be town in his lynchpool (JaeReed and Ciara) but not fine lynching the one person who we know is scum (Pepper). On the flip side, there's tons of scum motive to play that way if he's Pepper's partner.
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Post Post #979 (ISO) » Thu Sep 14, 2017 9:41 pm

Post by Alisae »

VOTE COUNT 2 . 37
  • osuka
    ------ 1 ( Aphix )
    L- 3

    Archwing
    --- 1 ( Skitter30 )
    L- 3




    Not Voting
    - 4 ( BlackVoid, osuka, randomiget, Archwing )
With 6 alive, it takes 4 to Lynch
Deadline is in (expired on 2017-09-18 07:27:43)
FOS COUNT 2 . 37
  • osuka
    ------- 2 ( Aphix, Skitter30 )
    Archwing
    ---- 1 ( Skitter30 )
    randomidget
    - 1 ( Skitter30 )


    Not FoS'ing
    - 4 ( BlackVoid, osuka, randomiget, Archwing )
With 6 alive, it takes 4 to Lynch
Deadline is in (expired on 2017-09-18 07:27:43)
Last edited by Alisae on Mon Sep 18, 2017 4:25 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Post Post #980 (ISO) » Fri Sep 15, 2017 1:29 am

Post by Archwing »

Spoiler: @skitter
i reread my iso regarding osuka. I guess that makes sense, like i see what you're saying about how my osuka read has been flopping around, coincidentally aligning with yours. so, my first read came after my first check in of the game, after reading like maybe through d1? That's where my meta read came in. When I finished reading, I came back and said I retract that townlean because I don't think it was justified to townlean him on that info alone. I have still argued that as a point, to try to have people understand the difference in his tone, but I don't townread him on that alone, and after going through all of d2 and now d3, he lost townpoints for me.
again, i see the concern about sheeping the conftowns read and honestly didn't clue in until now that that's how it was playing out.
In post 972, skitter30 wrote:
Spoiler: @Archwing
In post 963, Archwing wrote:I'm agreeing as to why people would scumlean my slot, given NTRP's play. And to answer BV, this is why I am acknowledging Paul's play. I know that I was accepting a role that was being scumleaned, and I see why. I know to myself that I am conftown, but it is now my job to make you all believe that too, and I think that starts by acknowledging what my predecessor has done, and what I intend to do. I want to make my actions open, and I want to easily be read. Like you said, it's not how town!Paul would interact with you? Well, I do not know how that play would be, although you have given examples earlier, but I want to be able to work with you as town. Since you have never played with me, you do not know how I play, or vice versa. Since my previous slot was filled by someone you were scum reading, I just don't want that around I guess.
Eh, fair enough
In post 963, Archwing wrote:If my read on Osuka is wonky, and it follows yours, then your read is wonky too?
As BV said, my problem was less that the read changed and more that it was mimicking mine.

Also, my read hadn't changed that drastically at any point. Throughout the day it's always been:

BV --- strong townread
Aphix ---- townlean
RM --- nulltown
Osuka/Paul ---- these two slots keep on switching places with each other, and my preferred lynch keeps flipping between the two of them.

But the two slots never really move more than a slot up or down. They're always in the bottom two.

In the space of around 50 posts, he goes from townlean -> biggest scumread along with RM -> biggest townread after myself. And the reads change a few posts after I say something about osuka.

I also show my work and explain why my opinion is changing. Viewed through the lens of DP-interactions, osuka looks kinda bad (and you follow this by scumreading him). Viewed through the lens of meta, he looks better (and you immediately follow this by making him your biggest townread).

So, I don't think my read is wonky at all, as I'm explaining why I'm conflicted whether or not osuka is the final scum; he certainly never becomes a major town read for me. In contrast, you just kinda repeat whatever I say.
In post 963, Archwing wrote:well, Osuka's 730 735 seem a little more genuine townie to me. it's more of an overall gut feeling I suppose. In my game with him, he was being more aggressive and more forward, blunt. Here he is more dosile, a little more go with the flow, unsure of his decisions...
in cosmos, he was sure about all his decisions. now he lacks confidence. I'm definitely flip flopping on his slot the most.
Noting that the two posts you quote happen to be ones where he's advocating town!paul . . .
In post 963, Archwing wrote:my 933, I still think makes sense. Like, DP was trying to pocket ntrp. he found his townie that was was piggy backing. and when jae did the tracker claim, DP was as sure as dead. So, his dying last effort was to claim JK. by doing that, he had to call out who he would have JK'd. why not his townie buddy ntrp? Had my slot been his scum partner, I feel like this would be a terrible play by DP. Thus, I believe this to be a town tell. DP is smarter than that. And sure, he was hungover... but I feel like if my slot was scum, then it would be more instinctively to avoid mention of a scum partner at all, incase of a hangover-induced slip.
Like BV said, you're kinda mimicking him too, which is kinda odd. Like, it's the exact same reaosning BV gave. I still don't get why it's a bad idea for scum!DP to do this to scum!Paul. Like I can think of a few reasons why this would make sense. Kinda bad that you're pushing this as a towntell, tbh. I don't really drink, and certainly not enough to get hungover, so I dunno if that assessment is accurate. I feel like he was just saying the first thing that popped into his head, and it was quite clear he wasn't in any sort of state to explain anything.
In post 963, Archwing wrote:My interpretation of DP separating from partners actually more implies a buddy with Ciara (now BV), based on d1 game play. But I need to read into this more. I'm not comfortable making any pushes on this, because of that fact alone.
I mean, the play you're referencing in more closely matches Osuka his interactions with Osuka- he pushes levio early in the game, and FOS'ed Osuka for being a shitposter. He literally doesn't interact with Ciara at all. So, it wasn't an unreasonable to assume that you were comparing it to Osuka's interactions with him.
In post 971, Archwing wrote:My reads are more than likely going to be slightly more objective and less sheepish by construction.
This is kinda bad considering that your blatantly sheeping my osuka read. Also 'by construction' is kinda bad, implies that you're constructing them, and that they aren't natural.


I dunno. I'm trying *incredibly* hard not to be tunneled and to look for things that would point to town!Paul/Archwing, but I just don't see it.
so, fair point about osukas 730 735, where he advocates for town!paul. not why i picked them, but it's there and I can't ignore it. however almost any post of osuka's that has some content also contains town!paul. like osuka was pauls biggest support here. so I don't think I can post an objective quote from osuka to show a "tone" without it have town!paul in it.

we clearly have different opinions on the fake JK claim from dp onto ntrp. you cannot see how i view it as s/t, i can't see it as a s/s play. i've tried to walk you through my reasoning, but you and BV don't see it. I don't know how else to explain it. Like, it just blatantly is calling out a partnership.

my "by construction" explanation comes from me being a physics student, and it's terminology that gets used alot. it has made its way into my speech now. literally, i understand why that now sounds fucky. sorry, that was bad.

And like i know that my osuka reads have seemed sheepy, but like i said, I was trying to update a few of my thoughts as I was reading the game.


BV, happy cake day!

@RM, what's going on? where are you at in all of this? do you have any reads?

So, like BV said, we should end this soon. I am like 60-40 osuka would probably flip town. Lets pretend he does for a sec.

We go into tomorrow down skitters and osuka, we have 4 alive. 3 town 1 scum. majority vote is 3. (this is MyLo right?)

While I'm not comfortable with lynching a townlean, I do think that it may be best for us to get a bit of information. I would rather look at RM, but we are running out of time and he just isn't posting like at all.
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Post Post #981 (ISO) » Fri Sep 15, 2017 2:17 am

Post by Randomnamechange »

In post 958, BlackVoid wrote: @randomidget, what "towncred" can be expected from defending MWAP? If anything the opposite happened. What were you thinking Aphix's plan was here? That everyone would see MWAP's flip and go "well, Aphix correctly called him town. Aphix must also be town?" I want a little bit of elaboration here.
its more "i was right on mwap while you were all wrong so my reads are more significant than yours"
In post 966, BlackVoid wrote:
In post 962, Randomnamechange wrote:the hypocrisy was over their scumread of ciara. the pushing without addressing is shown in 131 and 148 when they talk about the scumread on osuka, despite not having direct interactions yet they talk about the slot without talking to them. they then ask one question in an attempt to "sort" the slot but follows that immeadiately with a vote.
Why is it scummy to talk about a slot without addressing them? How was Tatters' scumread on Ciara hypocritical?

Who is scum and why? Who is your strongest townread and why?
it avoids confrontation and interaction while giving reads. it's trickier to scumread someone who is challenging you on your reads.
tatters was scumreading ciara's lack of activity while also providing no content.
scum is probs aphix IMO. massive amounts of unnecessary aggression, mwap lynch interactions, and icibalus' early game interactions.
there are a few slots who are obv town e.g. you and skitter, which don't really need discussion, so I'm going to talk about a contentious slot - osuka. he has done a lot of stuff that is beneficial for the town without it being necessary, and didnt use it to try and take a leadership position. His play around the DP lynch was really town IMO and generally im getting a strong town toneread on him.
In post 974, BlackVoid wrote:Hey, I've been on mafiascum for exactly one year! Didn't even notice but for that cake sign. Catching up now but I have to work tomorrow morning so I'm going to do a quick catch up. Should be online for the next half hour or so if anyone wants real time discussion.
now you can never leave! :twisted:
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Post Post #982 (ISO) » Fri Sep 15, 2017 4:09 am

Post by BlackVoid »

How was Osuka's play around the DP lynch town? I explained to skitter why I thought it was scummy so maybe explain why it's town? You keep making general statements without explaining anything and that's hard to read.
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Post Post #983 (ISO) » Fri Sep 15, 2017 4:10 am

Post by BlackVoid »

Why is Randomidget scum, Archwing?
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Post Post #984 (ISO) » Fri Sep 15, 2017 10:46 am

Post by skitter30 »

@BV:

I just reread day2, focusing on Osuka, and these are my thoughts, and I think I kinda agree with you?
In post 978, BlackVoid wrote:I don't see why pressuring Pepper for content was a bad idea when it apparently wasn't a bad idea to bully MWAP into posting content.
This is kinda ick tbh.
In post 978, BlackVoid wrote:I think it's weird as heck that he's fine lynching two people that I know to be town in his lynchpool (JaeReed and Ciara) but not fine lynching the one person who we know is scum (Pepper).
Tbf, he was 'fine' lynching Pepper, and was on that wagon; the lynch would not have happened without him. I'd characterize his interaction with the DP wagon more as 'reluctant' than 'not fine'. That being said, out of Jae, MWAP, Ciara, and DP, he is noticeably more reluctant to lynch DP than the rest.

MWAP- 229 is incredibly weird given his read on MWAP in 225.
Jae - advocated for their lynch for much of day 2
Ciara - Like, I don't get why Ciara/DP are on different levels in , and I don't know why Ciara in was his compromise lynch instead of Dp.

Osuka's posts around the Jae / DP claim were kinda weird:

- again, reluctant fora DP lynch because of lack of content, but willing to lynch Ciara for similar reasons
/- your placement on this list is kinda weird tbh. I don't like the justification that it's becauase you replaced Ciara. The strong townread on Paul still puzzles me
- I guess who was his preferred lynch at this point, given Jae claimed tracker?
- This bothered me at the time, but I didn't have a chance to discuss it given the deadline. Kinda undermining my question about scum!DP, because obviously town!DP is townreading Paul and doesn't want to lynch him.
- really, really ick, which I talked about already in 945
- Again, that reluctance to vote.


However, given all that, I note that Paul did very similar things:

DP is always on the periphery of his lynchpool/suspect pool, but never the main lynch candidate/suspect (, , , - he literally put himself in his lynchpool over DP, leaves DP out of his lynchpool in , suddenly remembers DP is a thing again , doesn't get why we believe Jae over DP in , implies he can't be DP's partner because he put him in his lynch pool a few posts earlier in )

It's literally like he forgot he needed to consider DP for much of the game, but in , argues that he shouldn't be considered DP's scumpartner because he was in his lynchpool out of nowhere 50 posts before.




Other assorted things:

[*] I think Osuka's strong townread on Paul is kinda weird but makes sense if he was trying to pocket him
[*] I think Paul/DP could have been arguing the 'skitter's reads are crap after her catchup post' thing because I put them both in the bottom of my readslist
[*] - are all kinda ick and trying to undermine you
[*] - kinda ick because we were never close to lynching ciara there. However, I'm also thinking that this indicates that he has some sort of bias against Ciara, which is why he was more willing to lynch her way back when. second paragraph is kinda gross because it feels like he knows the unvote was a big mistake and has to defend it.
[*]Osuka's town might be different this game because of v/la, although it looks like cosmos also occured during a period of v/la.

I feel like there's more, but I don't remember what else I was thinking atm. I'll make another post if I remember.

I don't really have any reasons for why he might be town beyond the MWAP thing, which isn't all that convincing really. He looks bad. I just think slightly less so than Archwing's slot.

I am in no means opposed to an osuka lynch today, but I'd prefer Paul's slot. That's basically where I'm at. If Osuka happens, I think Archwing should always be tomorrow's lynch.

Also, I think osuka comes back from v/la today, so we can talk to him.
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Post Post #985 (ISO) » Fri Sep 15, 2017 10:55 am

Post by Randomnamechange »

In post 982, BlackVoid wrote:How was Osuka's play around the DP lynch town? I explained to skitter why I thought it was scummy so maybe explain why it's town? You keep making general statements without explaining anything and that's hard to read.
Scum don't have a reason to unvote there. The speed of the revote implies it was genuine rather than for towncred. Especially it doesnt make sense as a bus as commiting at that point makes much more sense.
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Post Post #986 (ISO) » Fri Sep 15, 2017 12:13 pm

Post by skitter30 »

@archwing:

I'm just quoting your replies to make this more manageable. In response to
In post 980, Archwing wrote:i reread my iso regarding osuka. I guess that makes sense, like i see what you're saying about how my osuka read has been flopping around, coincidentally aligning with yours. so, my first read came after my first check in of the game, after reading like maybe through d1? That's where my meta read came in. When I finished reading, I came back and said I retract that townlean because I don't think it was justified to townlean him on that info alone. I have still argued that as a point, to try to have people understand the difference in his tone, but I don't townread him on that alone, and after going through all of d2 and now d3, he lost townpoints for me.
again, i see the concern about sheeping the conftowns read and honestly didn't clue in until now that that's how it was playing out.
Can you explain why he's suddenly a townread again? Like, how did he go from 'losing townpoints' to being your biggest townread?
In post 980, Archwing wrote:so, fair point about osukas 730 735, where he advocates for town!paul. not why i picked them, but it's there and I can't ignore it. however almost any post of osuka's that has some content also contains town!paul. like osuka was pauls biggest support here. so I don't think I can post an objective quote from osuka to show a "tone" without it have town!paul in it.
I mean, osuka has 135 posts. I open his ISO and ctrl+f for 'paul', and I get 83 hits. That implies that at least some of his posts are not about Paul. So, I dunno if this is such a valid argument. I did however glance through his ISO with this argument in mind, and you are correct that quite a few of his serious posts *were* about Paul, but I wouldn't say that 'almost any post of osuka's that has some content also contains town!paul'. That's a bit of an exaggeration imo.
In post 980, Archwing wrote:we clearly have different opinions on the fake JK claim from dp onto ntrp. you cannot see how i view it as s/t, i can't see it as a s/s play. i've tried to walk you through my reasoning, but you and BV don't see it. I don't know how else to explain it. Like, it just blatantly is calling out a partnership.
OK I guess? I don't really see any reasons that it wouldn't be the case. You just say it doesn't make sense but aren't saying *why*.
In post 980, Archwing wrote:my "by construction" explanation comes from me being a physics student, and it's terminology that gets used alot. it has made its way into my speech now. literally, i understand why that now sounds fucky. sorry, that was bad.
Sweet. I was a physics major until partially through my sophomore year; I switched to applied math at that point because the physics professors kept on handwaving the math :) I'm starting my senior year in like a week :)

But yeah, it sounds bad. I agree. It could be an idiom that you use just because of your major, but it could also be an unconscious slip because you're scum who has to construct artificial reads. I don't think we'll actually be able to determine which of those it was though :)
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Post Post #987 (ISO) » Fri Sep 15, 2017 2:02 pm

Post by aphix »

IN regards to archwing's read on osuka, it pretty much boils down to meta, which I don't really have any faith in the read whatsoever.
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Post Post #988 (ISO) » Sat Sep 16, 2017 10:08 am

Post by BlackVoid »

Comparing Paul's interactions with DP against Osuka's, I agree that DP was mostly in the periphery of Paul's reads and he never really made a strong push there. I don't think it's unlikely though for town to have flipped scum as a secondary or third scumread. My issue with Osuka comes more from the fact that he acted inconsistently towards DP than he did towards others like Ciara and MWAP and wasn't enthusiastic about the DP lynch when by his logic, he should have been.

I do think that Paul's townread on me for "effort" is really bad. It lacks any sort of depth that Paul had when we played together before.

I'm going to give one final shot at seeing Osuka as town and considering a worldview where Archwing is the final scum and figure out where I stand and put down a vote either tonight or tomorrow morning.

@Archwing, I need you explain why you are scumreading randomidget. The way it's shaping up where me and skitter are narrowing it down to you and Osuka, I think it's weird that you are not worried about an Osuka townflip making it difficult for you to win in lylo as town. It almost seems like you want to lynch him even though you think he's likelier to flip town than scum. Shouldn't you be spending time explaining why randomidget is the scum?

@Osuka, you've been V/LA for most of today and you're my biggest scumread right now. If you want to convince me I'm wrong, answer all my questions and go through your thought process in detail and respond to my case on you. We have less than two days left. Ball is in your court.
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Post Post #989 (ISO) » Sat Sep 16, 2017 10:57 am

Post by BlackVoid »

@Aphix, can you elaborate some more on what your reads are outside of Osuka scum? I'd like to hear your thoughts on the new replacements posts so far especially.
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Post Post #990 (ISO) » Sat Sep 16, 2017 11:03 am

Post by BlackVoid »

Hey Archwing, explain this:
In post 915, Archwing wrote:414 osuka gets DP right. Makes me think Osuka town. I've seen scumsuka... I don't think this is it. although this is only 2nd game ever.
In the game you played, scum-Osuka put his partner in his scumpool:
In post 649, osuka wrote:I'm willing to lynch {gorny, kts, singer}. I'm not opposed to a wh4t lynch even though I think there's a very decent chance she'll flip town and even info-wise, she's a very shitty lynch
How did you conclude that he's town from stuff he's done as scum before in a game you played with him?
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Post Post #991 (ISO) » Sat Sep 16, 2017 2:00 pm

Post by Archwing »

Hey sorry guys, physics homework getting the way :/
In post 986, skitter30 wrote:@archwing:

I'm just quoting your replies to make this more manageable. In response to
In post 980, Archwing wrote:i reread my iso regarding osuka. I guess that makes sense, like i see what you're saying about how my osuka read has been flopping around, coincidentally aligning with yours. so, my first read came after my first check in of the game, after reading like maybe through d1? That's where my meta read came in. When I finished reading, I came back and said I retract that townlean because I don't think it was justified to townlean him on that info alone. I have still argued that as a point, to try to have people understand the difference in his tone, but I don't townread him on that alone, and after going through all of d2 and now d3, he lost townpoints for me.
again, i see the concern about sheeping the conftowns read and honestly didn't clue in until now that that's how it was playing out.
Can you explain why he's suddenly a townread again? Like, how did he go from 'losing townpoints' to being your biggest townread?
Primarily, he's a townread due to meta points. You, Aphix, and iirc, BV have pointed out to me that meta points aren't exactly valuable. So, forgive me, and let me come back into this objectively. I will re read MWAP and DP lynch moments, and see what comes of it. But, nothing specifically from this game alone shouts town!osuka, but it's this game in the context of other games.

[quote="In post 986
In post 980, Archwing wrote:so, fair point about osukas 730 735, where he advocates for town!paul. not why i picked them, but it's there and I can't ignore it. however almost any post of osuka's that has some content also contains town!paul. like osuka was pauls biggest support here. so I don't think I can post an objective quote from osuka to show a "tone" without it have town!paul in it.
I mean, osuka has 135 posts. I open his ISO and ctrl+f for 'paul', and I get 83 hits. That implies that at least some of his posts are not about Paul. So, I dunno if this is such a valid argument. I did however glance through his ISO with this argument in mind, and you are correct that quite a few of his serious posts *were* about Paul, but I wouldn't say that 'almost any post of osuka's that has some content also contains town!paul'. That's a bit of an exaggeration imo.[/quote]

Fair, and honestly it probably comes from a place of laziness. let me look into this as I re-read osuka. I'll try to come back in a day-ish with a better read.

as for the JK claim, I feel like I have said why. I think that DPvNTRP is SvT because of the implications if it were SvS. I suppose a proof by contradiction scenario? I look at it via were I scum, how would this situation play out? pretty bad. Since DP knows that I am not scum, he can make this play. This would not be a play to his scum partner, because it puts that partnership out in the open, in a reference-able post. I've never been scum before, but I feel like this would be a terrible play, by putting a paper trail on that partnership.

@skitter applied math? wtf is wrong with you. i should vote you based on that alone ffs. lol. Math is what is kicking my ass... quantum, EM... the math just sucks.


@aphix, yes, I will review my meta read.


@BV I will get back to you wrt RM. Right now my focus has been on not lynching osuka as I think RM is the better lynch. since the town seems to be leaning towards a osuka lynch, that was my primary thing, to shy away from that. Now I can start making my case against RM. that will follow this post. I will say, if it's coming to deadline, and the town wants to lynch me, fine. do it. get the information. Watch my town flip and re-evaluate your reads. Like, obviously I would like to be a part of the surviving town team to win, but if that is how town feels, I will take the lynch to get the win.

@BV again: i guess that's a fair point. like, as a general idea/feel, it is just a not scum osuka feel in this game. based on meta. He clearly put singer in his scum pool, his scum partner, which would definitely explain putting DP in his pool in this game. and honestly, they sound pretty similar. it's the game outside of these "scum pools" that are pinging scum or town. But that is a good point.... I will look into this in my reread.
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Post Post #992 (ISO) » Sat Sep 16, 2017 2:37 pm

Post by Archwing »

In post 985, Randomnamechange wrote:
In post 982, BlackVoid wrote:How was Osuka's play around the DP lynch town? I explained to skitter why I thought it was scummy so maybe explain why it's town? You keep making general statements without explaining anything and that's hard to read.
Scum don't have a reason to unvote there. The speed of the revote implies it was genuine rather than for towncred. Especially it doesnt make sense as a bus as commiting at that point makes much more sense.
sounds like a lot of support for osuka. with only one scum left... could be tvt. could be pocketing.
In post 607, Madtatters wrote:My list, after seven years; from most likely scum to most likely town

Aphix
JaeReed, Skitter30
DoctorPepper
BlackVoid
Osuka
NotTheRealPaul

Now let me explain; Yukko was a guttown from the start. It wasn't until Skitter30 started in that my perspective on the character changed drastically. I have many hypothesis on those at the top of my list.

V1 - Aphix + Skitter30. This partnership is very unlikely because most scum are smarter than this. Why would both scum advocate for the lynching of someome intensely when nobody else has jumped on the wagon? Either they're bad scum or not partners. I'll got with the latter.

V2- Aphix + JaeReed w/the help of Skitter30. This would be a very good strategy, ngl. From what I've observed, JaeReed would be able to slip past everyone without revealing that they're scum. Among other things, like I've mentioned before, I feel like if JaeReed is scum, town is screwed. So if Aphix worked with JaeReed, it would be the perfect pairing. Aphix hasn't done that well of a job convincing me that they're town. So the top scum read paired with the low lying player. Genius. Now Skitter30 fits into this accidentally. By that I mean that they aren't aware that Aphix and JaeReed are scum, and is inadvertently being used for the scum's personal gain, unaware of the ulterior motive. If that's the case, Aphix is a much better player than I thought. Using town against town. Nice one. This actually what I believe is going on.

V3: Everything above is wrong and my reads from D1 are the right ones. Osuka and Paul are scum partners. That would actually be comical, after I advocate for them, trying to convince everyone that they're not scum, they flip scum. But honestly, the Aphix/JaeReed +Skitter30 scenario makes the most sense.

Therefore, as per my original vote at the beginning of today:

VOTE: Aphix

I'll come back to JaeReed & Skitter30 D3, if nobody switches to them first haha.

Any questions?
why even put skitter in a possible scenario?

i'll have more on this later. i can't fully formulate an argument... been up for 24hrs and had a few too many to drink. lol.
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Post Post #993 (ISO) » Sat Sep 16, 2017 4:33 pm

Post by aphix »

I actually put a lot of information in regards to my scum reads right now, including order I think they are most likely scum and why when I was going over DPs iso, his interactions with people and theirs with him.

In regards to the replacements I honestly think they are VIs. They have a lot of information that is just outright misrepping. They want to dig into Osuka's meta as to why he's town but just outright call play that's fairly common from my regardless of my alignment as a reason to scum read me. Not to mention some of the stuff I think they are just pulling out of their ass. I don't think being stupid is alignment indicative though, wish is good or we'd all be scum a good portion of the time. I don't feel getting into a fight about it at this point in the game is going to be useful at all though.
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Post Post #994 (ISO) » Sat Sep 16, 2017 6:09 pm

Post by osuka »

i'm sorry for the shitty activity everyone, school has been killing me and over the past day or so i've been getting sick, too.


"I would also like to reiterate my claim that Osuka is sort of obviously town" - rc about scumsuka
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Post Post #995 (ISO) » Sat Sep 16, 2017 6:12 pm

Post by osuka »

In post 926, BlackVoid wrote:@Osuka, I have read the game very thoroughly and I can confidently say you've never stated a single reason why Ciara was scummy. You've interacted with Ciara twice (, ) and both those posts are completely mundane. In the first, you tell her that MWAP will never produce worthwhile content. In the second, you answer her question about your read on Paul. Then comes your where she's in your POE pile. Then and where you'd be "willing to lynch Ciara"/"compromise on Ciara." I also have a hard time reading your and believing that you didn't mean for DP and Ciara to be at a similar level of suspicion. If I'm somehow skimmed over a Ciara case, link me to it.

I don't think your stance on lurkers is consistent at all. You argued against a DP lynch on the grounds of him being a hard-to-read/low-content slot but he's not unique in that regard. Ciara and MWAP both fit that pattern but you were okay pressuring MWAP for content early on, and you were fine deadline-lynching Ciara. I've re-read my post and I can't see how I've misrepped anything here.
this is some shit though, isn't it? she was really pushy but not at all confrontational, and her game really bugged me for quite a while

the more you hit the same keys, the more i'm inclined to think your slot actually is scum and you're tunneling me because i'm an easy mislynch. skitters' read on me was never super solid, cd was pushing me hard before he was force replaced and aphix isn't going out of his way to help me out, either


"I would also like to reiterate my claim that Osuka is sort of obviously town" - rc about scumsuka
"don't tell anyone, but there's a reason why you're one of my favourite people to mod for" - datisi
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Post Post #996 (ISO) » Sat Sep 16, 2017 6:12 pm

Post by osuka »

I never really had anything solid on the slot because i never built a case but i'm really considering it now


"I would also like to reiterate my claim that Osuka is sort of obviously town" - rc about scumsuka
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Post Post #997 (ISO) » Sat Sep 16, 2017 8:32 pm

Post by skitter30 »

@ali


In the incredibly unlikely event that I survive the night,
v/la wednesday - sunday
.
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Post Post #998 (ISO) » Sat Sep 16, 2017 8:37 pm

Post by skitter30 »

@BV: I'm basically at:

You and aphix are town. RM is likely town. I'm not sold on it, but considering we have two lynches and Archwing/osuka to deal with, I don't wanna lynch them. I'm OK with either osuka or Archwing, would prefer Archwing. If one of them townflips, I believe the other one should always be the lynch tomorrow.

I dunno. Both of them look incredibly bad atm. Even just from there posts on this page. I want to lynch both.
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Post Post #999 (ISO) » Sat Sep 16, 2017 8:40 pm

Post by BlackVoid »

@aphix, indulge me and give me a summary of your reads with maybe a sentence or so reasoning for each. A lot has happened over the past few days and I want to make sure I'm not overlooking anyone.

@Archwing, two things: first off, I simply don't get what "paper trail" DP would be leaving by claiming that he JK'd your slot. It says nothing about your alignment. This argument that it supposedly makes you scummy but because you look scummy from it, it actually points to you being town because DP wouldn't make his partner look scummy is such twisted WIFOM I don't know why you are even bothered to bring up as a reason for you being town. Secondly, why would you accept your own lynch? If you are town, it's best to lynch scum, but the second best option would be to just out-survive everyone else and your chances of winning increase if you make it all the way to the end since you get to flip more people. In other words, you get two shots at lynching your scumreads if you don't get lynched but only one if you do.

Oh, hey skitter!

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