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I think I explained where I'm at in my last two posts, but if you wanna talk to me about any of it, go for it.
VOTE COUNT 2 . 37
With 6 alive, it takes 4 to Lynch Deadline is in (expired on 2017-09-18 07:27:43) |
FOS COUNT 2 . 37
With 6 alive, it takes 4 to Lynch Deadline is in (expired on 2017-09-18 07:27:43) |
its more "i was right on mwap while you were all wrong so my reads are more significant than yours"In post 958, BlackVoid wrote: @randomidget, what "towncred" can be expected from defending MWAP? If anything the opposite happened. What were you thinking Aphix's plan was here? That everyone would see MWAP's flip and go "well, Aphix correctly called him town. Aphix must also be town?" I want a little bit of elaboration here.
it avoids confrontation and interaction while giving reads. it's trickier to scumread someone who is challenging you on your reads.In post 966, BlackVoid wrote:Why is it scummy to talk about a slot without addressing them? How was Tatters' scumread on Ciara hypocritical?In post 962, Randomnamechange wrote:the hypocrisy was over their scumread of ciara. the pushing without addressing is shown in 131 and 148 when they talk about the scumread on osuka, despite not having direct interactions yet they talk about the slot without talking to them. they then ask one question in an attempt to "sort" the slot but follows that immeadiately with a vote.
Who is scum and why? Who is your strongest townread and why?
now you can never leave!In post 974, BlackVoid wrote:Hey, I've been on mafiascum for exactly one year! Didn't even notice but for that cake sign. Catching up now but I have to work tomorrow morning so I'm going to do a quick catch up. Should be online for the next half hour or so if anyone wants real time discussion.
This is kinda ick tbh.In post 978, BlackVoid wrote:I don't see why pressuring Pepper for content was a bad idea when it apparently wasn't a bad idea to bully MWAP into posting content.
Tbf, he was 'fine' lynching Pepper, and was on that wagon; the lynch would not have happened without him. I'd characterize his interaction with the DP wagon more as 'reluctant' than 'not fine'. That being said, out of Jae, MWAP, Ciara, and DP, he is noticeably more reluctant to lynch DP than the rest.In post 978, BlackVoid wrote:I think it's weird as heck that he's fine lynching two people that I know to be town in his lynchpool (JaeReed and Ciara) but not fine lynching the one person who we know is scum (Pepper).
Scum don't have a reason to unvote there. The speed of the revote implies it was genuine rather than for towncred. Especially it doesnt make sense as a bus as commiting at that point makes much more sense.In post 982, BlackVoid wrote:How was Osuka's play around the DP lynch town? I explained to skitter why I thought it was scummy so maybe explain why it's town? You keep making general statements without explaining anything and that's hard to read.
Can you explain why he's suddenly a townread again? Like, how did he go from 'losing townpoints' to being your biggest townread?In post 980, Archwing wrote:i reread my iso regarding osuka. I guess that makes sense, like i see what you're saying about how my osuka read has been flopping around, coincidentally aligning with yours. so, my first read came after my first check in of the game, after reading like maybe through d1? That's where my meta read came in. When I finished reading, I came back and said I retract that townlean because I don't think it was justified to townlean him on that info alone. I have still argued that as a point, to try to have people understand the difference in his tone, but I don't townread him on that alone, and after going through all of d2 and now d3, he lost townpoints for me.
again, i see the concern about sheeping the conftowns read and honestly didn't clue in until now that that's how it was playing out.
I mean, osuka has 135 posts. I open his ISO and ctrl+f for 'paul', and I get 83 hits. That implies that at least some of his posts are not about Paul. So, I dunno if this is such a valid argument. I did however glance through his ISO with this argument in mind, and you are correct that quite a few of his serious posts *were* about Paul, but I wouldn't say that 'almost any post of osuka's that has some content also contains town!paul'. That's a bit of an exaggeration imo.In post 980, Archwing wrote:so, fair point about osukas 730 735, where he advocates for town!paul. not why i picked them, but it's there and I can't ignore it. however almost any post of osuka's that has some content also contains town!paul. like osuka was pauls biggest support here. so I don't think I can post an objective quote from osuka to show a "tone" without it have town!paul in it.
OK I guess? I don't really see any reasons that it wouldn't be the case. You just say it doesn't make sense but aren't saying *why*.In post 980, Archwing wrote:we clearly have different opinions on the fake JK claim from dp onto ntrp. you cannot see how i view it as s/t, i can't see it as a s/s play. i've tried to walk you through my reasoning, but you and BV don't see it. I don't know how else to explain it. Like, it just blatantly is calling out a partnership.
Sweet. I was a physics major until partially through my sophomore year; I switched to applied math at that point because the physics professors kept on handwaving the mathIn post 980, Archwing wrote:my "by construction" explanation comes from me being a physics student, and it's terminology that gets used alot. it has made its way into my speech now. literally, i understand why that now sounds fucky. sorry, that was bad.
In the game you played, scum-Osuka put his partner in his scumpool:In post 915, Archwing wrote:414 osuka gets DP right. Makes me think Osuka town. I've seen scumsuka... I don't think this is it. although this is only 2nd game ever.
How did you conclude that he's town from stuff he's done as scum before in a game you played with him?In post 649, osuka wrote:I'm willing to lynch {gorny, kts, singer}. I'm not opposed to a wh4t lynch even though I think there's a very decent chance she'll flip town and even info-wise, she's a very shitty lynch
Primarily, he's a townread due to meta points. You, Aphix, and iirc, BV have pointed out to me that meta points aren't exactly valuable. So, forgive me, and let me come back into this objectively. I will re read MWAP and DP lynch moments, and see what comes of it. But, nothing specifically from this game alone shouts town!osuka, but it's this game in the context of other games.In post 986, skitter30 wrote:@archwing:
I'm just quoting your replies to make this more manageable. In response to 980
Can you explain why he's suddenly a townread again? Like, how did he go from 'losing townpoints' to being your biggest townread?In post 980, Archwing wrote:i reread my iso regarding osuka. I guess that makes sense, like i see what you're saying about how my osuka read has been flopping around, coincidentally aligning with yours. so, my first read came after my first check in of the game, after reading like maybe through d1? That's where my meta read came in. When I finished reading, I came back and said I retract that townlean because I don't think it was justified to townlean him on that info alone. I have still argued that as a point, to try to have people understand the difference in his tone, but I don't townread him on that alone, and after going through all of d2 and now d3, he lost townpoints for me.
again, i see the concern about sheeping the conftowns read and honestly didn't clue in until now that that's how it was playing out.
I mean, osuka has 135 posts. I open his ISO and ctrl+f for 'paul', and I get 83 hits. That implies that at least some of his posts are not about Paul. So, I dunno if this is such a valid argument. I did however glance through his ISO with this argument in mind, and you are correct that quite a few of his serious posts *were* about Paul, but I wouldn't say that 'almost any post of osuka's that has some content also contains town!paul'. That's a bit of an exaggeration imo.[/quote]In post 980, Archwing wrote:so, fair point about osukas 730 735, where he advocates for town!paul. not why i picked them, but it's there and I can't ignore it. however almost any post of osuka's that has some content also contains town!paul. like osuka was pauls biggest support here. so I don't think I can post an objective quote from osuka to show a "tone" without it have town!paul in it.
sounds like a lot of support for osuka. with only one scum left... could be tvt. could be pocketing.In post 985, Randomnamechange wrote:Scum don't have a reason to unvote there. The speed of the revote implies it was genuine rather than for towncred. Especially it doesnt make sense as a bus as commiting at that point makes much more sense.In post 982, BlackVoid wrote:How was Osuka's play around the DP lynch town? I explained to skitter why I thought it was scummy so maybe explain why it's town? You keep making general statements without explaining anything and that's hard to read.
why even put skitter in a possible scenario?In post 607, Madtatters wrote:My list, after seven years; from most likely scum to most likely town
Aphix
JaeReed, Skitter30
DoctorPepper
BlackVoid
Osuka
NotTheRealPaul
Now let me explain; Yukko was a guttown from the start. It wasn't until Skitter30 started in that my perspective on the character changed drastically. I have many hypothesis on those at the top of my list.
V1 - Aphix + Skitter30. This partnership is very unlikely because most scum are smarter than this. Why would both scum advocate for the lynching of someome intensely when nobody else has jumped on the wagon? Either they're bad scum or not partners. I'll got with the latter.
V2- Aphix + JaeReed w/the help of Skitter30. This would be a very good strategy, ngl. From what I've observed, JaeReed would be able to slip past everyone without revealing that they're scum. Among other things, like I've mentioned before, I feel like if JaeReed is scum, town is screwed. So if Aphix worked with JaeReed, it would be the perfect pairing. Aphix hasn't done that well of a job convincing me that they're town. So the top scum read paired with the low lying player. Genius. Now Skitter30 fits into this accidentally. By that I mean that they aren't aware that Aphix and JaeReed are scum, and is inadvertently being used for the scum's personal gain, unaware of the ulterior motive. If that's the case, Aphix is a much better player than I thought. Using town against town. Nice one. This actually what I believe is going on.
V3: Everything above is wrong and my reads from D1 are the right ones. Osuka and Paul are scum partners. That would actually be comical, after I advocate for them, trying to convince everyone that they're not scum, they flip scum. But honestly, the Aphix/JaeReed +Skitter30 scenario makes the most sense.
Therefore, as per my original vote at the beginning of today:
VOTE: Aphix
I'll come back to JaeReed & Skitter30 D3, if nobody switches to them first haha.
Any questions?
this is some shit though, isn't it? she was really pushy but not at all confrontational, and her game really bugged me for quite a whileIn post 926, BlackVoid wrote:@Osuka, I have read the game very thoroughly and I can confidently say you've never stated a single reason why Ciara was scummy. You've interacted with Ciara twice (257, 328) and both those posts are completely mundane. In the first, you tell her that MWAP will never produce worthwhile content. In the second, you answer her question about your read on Paul. Then comes your 414 where she's in your POE pile. Then 554 and 572 where you'd be "willing to lynch Ciara"/"compromise on Ciara." I also have a hard time reading your 414 and believing that you didn't mean for DP and Ciara to be at a similar level of suspicion. If I'm somehow skimmed over a Ciara case, link me to it.
I don't think your stance on lurkers is consistent at all. You argued against a DP lynch on the grounds of him being a hard-to-read/low-content slot but he's not unique in that regard. Ciara and MWAP both fit that pattern but you were okay pressuring MWAP for content early on, and you were fine deadline-lynching Ciara. I've re-read my post and I can't see how I've misrepped anything here.