Open 700: Donner Party - ENDGAME

[northsidegal]

VOTE: uc voyager, semi serious. you're experienced enough at this point to know the basics of rvs and nothing's different in open games, so why are you projecting a false image?

[northsidegal]

VOTE: uc voyager, semi serious. you're experienced enough at this point to know the basics of rvs and nothing's different in open games, so why are you projecting a false image?

im just asking about an open game.....i mean. some times micro game RVS can last longer than Noobie RVS

i don't know for how many games you expect you can keep playing the newbie card, but for this one i'm not buying it. i know for a fact that you know what open setups are and have had a discussion very similar to this one in other threads. furthermore, why are you acting as if rvs is some completely official stage, as if the mod will announce in-thread that "rvs is now finished"? even if we do take it that you don't know the difference between rvs in open and normal games (a ridiculous notion), why would you bother asking about it instead of just placing an rvs vote?

i've read / played in enough games with you that the noob card is getting seriously old. bring your "A" game to this one.

[northsidegal]

[northsidegal]

VOTE: UCV
There's no way you're actually this bad.

Then Leave it to a Vig shot.
Transcend is the lynch today

who to lynch vs who to shoot is an interesting thought. why do you think we gain more from the transcend flip? also, could you explain your read on transcend? from what i understand it's based on just having early game reads, which doesn't make a lot of sense to me. i mean, multiple people called others scum in the first 30 or so posts of the game, what made you single out transcend's townread?

[northsidegal]

@Keychain: "The how long does RVS last" bit is fake pretension, and continuing to argue about it is overly so. It gave me the impression Voyager is trying to cover up for something but he miscalculated his move.

However, I was ONLY thinking of the "cannibals" when I said that, which would have given us a 75% hit rate on scum if we lynched him (2 Mafia + 1 SK vs 1 Vig). I now realize it could also be the other 2 TPRs, so the hit rate is 50%, and to add the possibility that it just might be a play style (I don't know him and never played with him before) I'd say LESS than 50%.

So, still the best lynch IMHO but I'm not going to vote him right away. Instead I'll wait for Transcend to engage me, N_M to keep on lurking, or someone else to start something or look more suspicious.

@Transcend: Come on, Doggie. By the power invested in me by the people of .. erm .. the bork bork person, I hereby summon you to appear in my presence, so that I can take a "peek" (or rather a peak) at you, and you may take a "bite" at me too.

does anyone understand what this means? almost, could you explain what you're talking about here? it seems like a complete non-sequitur. by the way, what's your reason behind not voting?

[northsidegal]

He's voting Transcend?

I understood it, I'm pretty sure. He said the statement because he thought UCV was likely scum as a likely cannibal, but likelihood has gone down from there as he considered other possibilities for the weird behaviour. Not sure where the non sequitur is here.
The whole "this guy is either scum or a PR" is not a great thing to come out with though.

oh, apologies for the unclear language. in 49, almost said that he thinks ucv is the best lynch but he's going to wait for some other things to happen before he switches his vote. i wanted his rationale on that choice to not move his vote.

you explained it, but i'm still not sure i really understand what that one paragraph is referring to. what's the reason to read ucv as specifically cannibal or town pr rather than just as scum? i guess i would need an explanation on how ucv as a town pr leads to the weird behavior instead of it just being ucv as scum.

[northsidegal]

@northsidegirl: I'm confused as to what exactly you want me to explain, so I'll try to state my stance and objective and hopefully you'll get where I'm coming from.

Basically, I want to hunt down the cannibals. You wonder why "cannibals" and not "just scum", which is confusing to me as

all scum are cannibals in this game

, which means eliminating all cannibals = eliminating all scum.

However, there's also one town-aligned cannibal in the setup, so we have a total of 3 scums, all cannibals out of a total of 4 cannibals. It might have been survivalist for me to think it was an acceptable risk (nobody wants to die and leave the game and it applies to me too), but it also had to do with the unannounced flips for the cannibal kills. In my head it was: worst case we lynch the vig, so 2 NKs with unknown flips rather than 3, AND we might even know if the Mafia got the SK the next night if we only have one NK then.

While I was typing my thoughts it occurred to me that I had been too focused on the cannibals that I totally forgot there were 2 other PRs who are NOT cannibals so that's why I said what I said. I also do not have a crystal ball so I could still be wrong so added that factor at the end.

With this and with me trying to determine the alignment of others, like Transcend (one of the very few I have previous experience with) I don't see why I should rush a lynch on someone I had just said I suspect but NOT SURE is scum. I'll wait for Transcend to start playing the game so that I have a better chance of guessing his true colours, and maybe a few others too. (I won't be sharing a read list on D1, but I already have marked down 2 players as most likely town and 3 as more suspicious than the others).

Does it make any more sense now?

okay, i understand your thought process more now, but i still have some questions. why bother searching for cannibals instead of scum? 75 percent of cannibals are scum but 100 percent of scum are scum. furthermore, how does cannibal hunting differ from scumhunting? like, are there just general reads for people who are cannibals? it seems like vig tells vs scum tells wouldn't change in this game, even though they're both cannibals.

[northsidegal]

@northsidegal/@Keychain:

Am I speaking another language?

1- ALL SCUM ARE CANNIBALS
2- I FORGOT ABOUT THE NON-CANNIBAL PRs
3- I WANT ALL FLIPS EXPOSED BECAUSE I NEED THE INFO TO GET BETTER READS ON THE LIVING PLAYERS

Now, what IS there not to understand? UCV was acting weird and I interpreted it as someone who got a role they couldn't handle. It was as if he wanted to create a smoke screen to camouflage himself, and it singled him out instead. Why would he do that? Because he is "not a VT". Why a "cannibal"? Because I forgot about the other 2 PRs (see #2 above), Why would I want cannibals out? refer to #1 & #3 above. It's not rocket science.

81 is not expressing confusion, it's asking you questions. the sentence about you thinking ucv couldn't handle the role was mostly what i was looking for. still wondering exactly how hunting cannibals differs from hunting scum, and why you would take the "acceptable loss" of the vig instead of just preferring scum, but it's probably mostly semantics at this point.

[northsidegal]

agreeing with keychain here, also i missed maki's 97, which i agree with.
VOTE: almost

also of note is almost deliberately ignoring 96 and still not responding to the questions in 81.

[northsidegal]

i don't like the association nm made with ass-ucvoy

I do. My lynch pool is in UC Voyager/Assemblerotws/northsidegal for today. I'd say one gets the rope, one gets blocked and one gets checked or vigged.

would you mind explaining your read on me and providing your own opinion on assemble? i assume your opinion on ucv is unchanged from 49.

[northsidegal]

You were easily triggered by me saying I was hunting "cannibals". I won't go through too many details but I'd say you're either the Vig or the SK at this point (Keychain can be the other one but he handled it a bit more subtly).

Assemblerotws is more of a gut feeling, and yes I had been following my initial thought process for UCV up until now. However, I'm starting to consider a Transcend+Keychain scum team (which also coincides with Transcend scum play of distancing with his p) and that would put Assemble on the clear as the other 2 cannibals would still be you and UCV.

Gun to my head I'd say you are the SK because the Vig would not be as jumpy to someone hunting them as they (a) would know that bringing down all cannibals = Town win, and (b) do not have a "you must outlive everyone else or you're toast" kind of a win con.

Now YOU need to explain why you made (and still are making) such a fuss about how I opted to phrase my thoughts and how does "hunting scum" differ from "hunting cannibals" in your own dictionary.

i initially questioned you for 49 because it doesn't make a lick of sense how you go straight from talking about your scumread on ucv to talking about some weird percentages and cannibals. like, even still looking back on that i find it hard to understand - i now know the thought process behind some of the things you're saying, but it didn't make any sense. i don't even mention cannibals in my initial questioning in 63, because that it wasn't cannibals specifically that i was concerned about. also, do you think the vig would be okay with being lynched just because the vig is a cannibal and all scum are also cannibals, so lynching cannibals is good? it's easy to see just on a purely logical level how that doesn't make sense. finally, where in my posts do you see evidence that i have an "outlive everyone else" wincon?

as for hunting scum vs hunting cannibals, this feels to me like some kind of mistake that you made that you're doubling down on. not all cannibals are scum, so why would you be more interested or even phrase something as hunting cannibals instead of hunting scum (scum here referring to both the mafia and the sk)? actually, this argument is probably mostly semantics at this point, so hopefully we both can move on to something more productive.

i don't think anything i've done this game can be reasonably called "making a fuss". i'm just trying to follow up on things that stand out to me or things that don't make any sense.

[northsidegal]

oh yeah, here's the relevant parts of 49 for reference.

@Keychain: "The how long does RVS last" bit is fake pretension, and continuing to argue about it is overly so. It gave me the impression Voyager is trying to cover up for something but he miscalculated his move.

However, I was ONLY thinking of the "cannibals" when I said that, which would have given us a 75% hit rate on scum if we lynched him (2 Mafia + 1 SK vs 1 Vig). I now realize it could also be the other 2 TPRs, so the hit rate is 50%, and to add the possibility that it just might be a play style (I don't know him and never played with him before) I'd say LESS than 50%.

So, still the best lynch IMHO but I'm not going to vote him right away. Instead I'll wait for Transcend to engage me, N_M to keep on lurking, or someone else to start something or look more suspicious.

if anything,

your

concern with cannibals from the start of the game would incriminate you more. i approached this game as a traditional game of mafia, whereas you had the cannibal mechanic on your mind from the very start. of course, just like your argument, that point makes a lot of assumptions from a very weak starting point.

[northsidegal]

let's go through this, point by point.

@northsidegal: You keep spewing jusnk all over, again and again.

1- First you do not understand but you claim it doesn't make sense. Then you say you managed to understand but it still doesn't make sense. Well, perhaps you need to check on your own definition of sense and/or readjust.

i like to think that i have a pretty good grasp on the english language, and on communications in general, but that's not always the case. when i don't get something, usually i ask for clarification. i now understand the point you were trying to make in 49, although if i were to look at the post without taking into account things that you have said later in the game, it would make no sense to me. also, one can understand a point but recognize that it doesn't make logical sense - if you told me you were going to take your life's savings and bet it on black at the roulette tables, i could linguistically understand what you're saying and yet recognize that, as a decision, it does not make sense.

2- The Vig would not be OK getting lynched, but they would not be going after the one who suggested getting rid of all cannibals either. The one more likely to do so is the one who is most threatened by the concept, which I perceive to be the one who is working all alone.

3- Not all cannibals are scum, I agree. However ALL BLOODY SCUM ARE CANNIBALS. Now if you don't understand what I'm saying still you need not respond to me at all. Just vote me or ignore me. I'm not here to babysit you. If you do have a brain I suggest you use it.

these two go together, so let's talk about them together. i'm going to go through this on the most basic logical level that i can. ready?

all squares are rectanges. not all rectanges are squares. i give you a set of shapes among which includes squares, rectanges and triangles, and you're tasked with finding all of the squares. now, would it be a correct strategy to look for all of the rectanges? well, you would find all of the squares in the process because all squares are rectangles, but it wouldn't be the most efficient process and you would end up with some rectanges that you didn't need to find.

do i need to explain how this connects to this game? yeah, all scum are cannibals, but there's no reason to focus on cannibals instead of scum. it doesn't make any logical sense. how can you possibly suggest that

i'm

the one not using my brain - this is

incredibly

, incredibly basic logic.

it doesn't even matter to me that much becuase you're right, there really is only one cannibal that isn't scum. but i just don't get the continued, bullish insistance that you didn't make a mistake or that your point makes sense.

4- Obviously I don't have evidence to your win con as I didn't get your role PM. Asking me to provide evidence to your win con being that of the SK is one of the silliest defences that could ever be made against the accusation. Reread point #2 in this response for more illustration (which will probably still make no sense to you).

In short, you need to push for my lynch today as hard as you can. If not; you had better kill me tonight (I initially typed "eat me" but realized it could be mistaken for an insult under the circumstances). If I'm still alive tomorrow I'm likely to keep pushing you, or -at the vfery least- grace you with more stuff that just "doesn't make sense at all" whether you understand them or not.

In the mean time...

VOTE: Transcend

for now.

i'm not asking you to quote my role pm or something, i'm asking you to just make an argument that i'm the sk. like, usually when people accuse others of being scum they have some kind of reason behind it -

any

kind of reason. when they don't, that's called the rvs stage of the game. i actually get the sense that you're scum here just because of how awkward your response to this question was. really, it wasn't difficult. all i was asking for was some evidence that i had the mentality of "stay alive until the endgame" - quote a post, make some kind of meta analysis, anything. this entire game i feel like you've done nothing but dodge reasonable questions. i like to think that i'm not an obstinate person - typically i don't get such an overreaction to the questions that i ask.
VOTE: almost

[northsidegal]

Btw, the VIG would probably be paying attention to all of this so they can make an enlightened decision regarding their target tonight, and especially so if the Vig IS in if those I suspect, because scum are going to shoot within that pool too most assuredly, so there's a big chance the Vig won't make it through the night.

why would scum shoot in the pool of people you suspect?

[northsidegal]

where in 172 did keychain imply or make a statement that, if true, would imply that you are not a cannibal?

[northsidegal]

Btw, the VIG would probably be paying attention to all of this so they can make an enlightened decision regarding their target tonight, and especially so if the Vig IS in if those I suspect, because scum are going to shoot within that pool too most assuredly, so there's a big chance the Vig won't make it through the night.

why would scum shoot in the pool of people you suspect?

Because the CANNIBALS are in there, and these are the KILLING ROLES in the game, so each an every cannibal would want to get rid of the other killers. The Dietician/Gunsmith is also a good target but ONLY THE SCUM TRIO would want them dead. The RB is of less importance to then at this stage, and especially so for the SK (who has a one shot RB immunity anyway).

how are you so good as to have already pegged all of the cannibals in your scumreads, and why would scum trust you on that? like, you keep talking to me as if i'm some kind of idiot that doesn't get the basic mechanics of the game and ignoring the real questions that i'm asking - why do scum listen to you as the source of who the cannibals are?

where in 172 did keychain imply or make a statement that, if true, would imply that you are not a cannibal?

I'm not gonna respond to that. If you can type then you certainly can read, so go read it for yourself.

hmm, just read it another two times and i'm still not seeing anything.

[northsidegal]

by the way, it seems we've all had a few difficulties communicating, so if it wasn't clear,

how are you so good as to have already pegged all of the cannibals in your scumreads

, and why would scum trust you on that? like, you keep talking to me as if i'm some kind of idiot that doesn't get the basic mechanics of the game and ignoring the real questions that i'm asking - why do scum listen to you as the source of who the cannibals are?

that was sarcasm.

[northsidegal]

well the stats that you have in your signature certainly tell an impressive tale but i have to say that i'm not really all that impressed. i don't need a lot of convincing to know that you're not as good as you think you are right now, because i already know for a fact that i'm not the serial killer. anyways, i think i've said enough for now, probably best to leave the floor open for someone else.

pedit - uhh, why do you want to get nightkilled? is this some kind of extremely transparent serial killer wifom?

[northsidegal]

Now let's all get serious and raise the stakes:

Let's lynch Transcend

. If he flip town, the Vig can shoot ME tonight.

yeah, but why would you say this? do you want to get shot if transcend flips town? the obvious response is "that's just how confident i am", but assume for a moment that you're wrong (might be difficult, i know). why even put forth the suggestion that you get shot?

[northsidegal]

is it because i said i know i'm not the serial killer specifically instead of saying that i know i'm not scum?

yeah i thought about that, but he was only accusing me of being the sk so i just thought i'd be specific. if not, mind explaining?

[northsidegal]

So, either I'm good and draw a scum NK, or I'm bad and it's best to remove me. and in either case I'm saved from much further "delightful duels" with your majesty.

i'm not the one who's been being arrogant this game. the only place it could even be

argued

that i was was the "squares/rectangles" analogy, and that was deliberately simple for the sake of example. i'm really not trying to be your enemy or to harass you this game, and i don't understand why you're getting so frustrated. maybe it really is that we're all simpletons that just can't comprehend your genius, but you forget that this is still a game of mafia - you can't win the game all on your own. you need to convince other people of your opinions.

[northsidegal]

No one else is arguing (and for the sake of arguing I might add). If my words weren't clear enough I would have expected more players to exclaim or ask for clarification, which isn't the case.

You -on the other hand- keep asking the same questions in different forms and request clarifications on what I think is clear enough already, and my "assumption" that my words are clear enough is supported by the fact nobody else is asking for an explanation.

My dear, you have picked the one who has a big mouth and is talking much (maybe way too much) to engage rather than try to stimulate the conversation with 11 other separate entities in the game. In other words, you tool the easiest route to get a mislynch through rather than try to get a full read list (regardless of it's accuracy). "Let's lynch this guy and get the game to a stagnation" is a basic scum tactic I'd say.

If you're not out to harass me then you must be in love with me already, because I don't see you giving attention to anyone else, and I don't believe I have that kind of spell, and certainly not from behind the screen.

this can mostly be attributed to the playerlist - if you look at the activity overview, you can see that we have some chronic lurkers, some people who post about 2 or 3 lines a post and then you, me and keychain. i can follow along with what keychain's saying so it's just you left. besides, i haven't even been asking you for clarification mostly - to me, it's all just been the standard game content of asking people to explain their reads or their strategy. like i said, you seem to take it that every question i ask is some idiotic lack of understanding of the setup, when the reality is that i'm asking for the

in-game reasons

behind your thought-process, your motivations, etc. anyways, like i tried to do earlier, should probably let some other people take the stage.

and no, i'm not exactly enchanted by your ostrich.

[northsidegal]

you act as if i'm about to dayvig you and end the day. i've just been interacting with the person who's been interacting with me and who has also been online this entire day. really, the day's not about to end and i still have plenty of time to interact with and get reads on other players. so why are you making such a big fuss over me talking to you?

[northsidegal]

like, saying that "i'm already the most active so you don't need to be talking to me" is a really bad excuse for trying to avoid talking to someone or for trying to dodge questions. i'm note exactly accusing you of doing that, but it's poor reasoning nonetheless.

[northsidegal]

Little lady (judging by the avatar no more)

This patronising comment was unnecessary as any alignment, thanks.

my family members actually call me little lady a lot, so it was a little weird to hear from someone while playing mafia.

[northsidegal]

thanks! ucv hasn't said much since the initial stages of the game, so probably a null/scum lean given what i said initially. still not sure if i buy the "how long is rvs" question, but i need more from the slot to even have a chance at sorting it.

[northsidegal]

the last page or two is mostly filled with content. any comments on that whole exchange?

[northsidegal]

north do you disagree with PM and almost50 on their read on transcend?

i can't really read him yet. i liked how his iso seemed to pick up in content and scumhunting around the middle, but it seems to be dipping back down again.

[northsidegal]

north do you disagree with PM and almost50 on their read on transcend?

i can't really read him yet. i liked how his iso seemed to pick up in content and scumhunting around the middle, but it seems to be dipping back down again.

but if you have 3 independent players telling you that this how trans plays as scum that doesn't sway the opinion?

what makes their assessment more accurate than my own? yes, their experience with transcend lends them credibility, but there's no real reason for me to place blind faith in what they say. i'd prefer to come to my own conclusion - i'm not really one to sheep others' reads.

[northsidegal]

also, so funny of you to say three "independent" players in a game of mafia.

[northsidegal]

the question was mainly there so that maybe you would also consider other alternatives than almost50 since it seemed that you where tunneling a bit.

i wouldn't consider what i've been doing tunneling. yeah, me and almost had a long interaction, but that doesn't mean that he's the only one i'm focusing on. do you have a problem with me pushing almost or a preference that i don't, outside of the general motivation of convincing people to vote your own scumread?

[northsidegal]

Nothing is more hilarious than getting meta dumped and being town rofl

This website relies way too much on meta. There's this thing called scumhunting lol.

You know saying that you're town really doesn't help your case?

Anyway, I was looking through more of Trans' games, and it turns out that he does this as both alignments.

viewtopic.php?f=53&t=69351&user_select[]=27478 This game, Trans makes 168 posts, lasts a whole game day, and gets night killed, being Town.

viewtopic.php?f=53&t=71319&user_select[]=27478 520 posts, lasts the whole game only to get LYLO lynched, was Vanilla Townie.

While this is counter-evidence, not only was it requested,

but it also shows, that Trans can not be trusted, whether he is Town or not.

Every game shown gives a showcase that Trans could be Town, Mafia, or third party. I'm getting some scum vibes, so I'm sticking with Trans as my option for the lynch. I'll look into the 50+ posts he made this game for more thoughts.

explain this, please (the bold). what did you say in the beginning of the post that would indicate that he can't be trusted, town or not?
every game shows that he could be town, mafia or third party? erm, exactly what conclusion do you draw from that statement? that's true for everyone in the game and is a function of the random role assignments rather than a meta playstyle. if you're trying to say that this style of posting doesn't indicate that transcend is town, that's fine, but you've also just proven to yourself and to everyone else that it also doesn't indicate that he's mafia or third party. so what made you end up choosing scum over "it's non-alignment indicative"?

[northsidegal]

oh man, i really don't want to start this up again but i feel like this needs to be said.

OK then. Looks like Transcend isn't happening, eh.

VOTE: Keychain

His indirect defense of Transcend is nothing short of a scum claim. He either is scum with Doggie OR he knows Doggie is Town (or at least not his p) and is doing it for Town cred. No Townie would be as resistant to a Transcend wagon (based on how Transcend has played so far) as KC is.

P.S. Giving NSG the benefit of the doubt for now.

you're being blinded by your own confidence in transcend being scum. to you, transcend is so obviously scum that anyone who doesn't recognize this must have some kind of ulterior motive, right? that's basically what your argument is, at least as much as i interpreted it. the thing is, it's entirely possible keychain just reads transcend differently than you do and it has nothing to do with alignment. to me, transcend hasn't done anything so overtly scummy that this kind of reaction is justified. like, you're basically arguing that keychain is scum because she disagrees with you.

can someone please (without bringing up meta) make an actual argument as to why transcend is scum here? i don't think i've seen one that i've really liked yet and i'd like to hear all the points summed up. by the way, keychain is a she.

[northsidegal]

@pmysterious, can you respond to 237?

[northsidegal]

so i feel like getting this game moving, so here's my thoughts on everyone in the game. order is taken straight from the playerlist and doesn't mean anything.

Almost50

- most of you probably already know my thoughts on this slot, but i guess i'll state them here for the sake of clarity. i don't think almost's scumhunting is genuine, and his awkward responses to simple questions make me think he's uncomfortable scum. i hate to bring up the same points that i've harped on before (to the point where others think i'm tunneling), but i can't avoid bringing up the scum/cannibals argument. the whole point about all scum being cannibals to me is empty scumhunting - posts like 72 and 90 have a lot of words but don't really say a lot. furthermore, the entire argument about all scum being cannibals is mechanically and logically meaningless - beyond the game mechanics that we all presumably know, bringing it up brings nothing new at all to the table. the next point is awkward responses - i get the feeling that almost doesn't do well under pressure. among other questions, in 164 i asked almost to give some reasoning as to why he felt that i was the serial killer; he had pointed out or implied that i was playing as if i had an "outlive everyone else" win condition, and i wanted him to back that up - quote something, point to a post, even just say it was gut. what was his response? he said that he didn't get my role pm, and so it was a silly request to make. if you believe that i'm fabricating or exaggerating this then interpret 164 and the resposne 170 yourself.

Not_Mafia

- can't read. hasn't really done anything except one note push ucv and assemble as scum. if people read transcend as scum for lacking content then it seems odd to me to not also scumread not mafia for it. they've both done practically the same thing, except i think transcend has had a bit more actual content to his iso.

Assemblerotws

- also can't really read, but would probably place as a scumlean. chronic lurker (seriously, might want to work on that). has been voted on and off over the course of the game but nothing's ever really taken off, at least so far. he was the third vote on the early game ucv wagon, which i would place as slightly suspicious. 54 doesn't really add a lot that wasn't already said, and ucv is lynch bait in every game he's in so it could be scum hopping on the wagon early. also, it appears like he believes the transcend meta argument and i would question the motives of anyone who believes that until it's better explained to me.

sheepsaysmeep

- like many, hasn't really contributed a lot to the thread so far (no offense!). like, the only reads i can even tell that sheep has are a townread on almost and a scumread on transcend for lots of posts without scumhunting. ironic? if i had to place it i would probably put sheep as a slight scumlean for the unvote in 78 and how he hasn't placed it anywhere yet. to me this entire slot just comes across as trying to attract as little attention as possible while still getting through the day, although it might just come down to a personal difference in philosophy of how to use your vote.

Keychain

- really conflicted on keychain. i want to townread her, but at the same time i recognize how many cognitive biases there are that would influence me to townread her: the fact that she townreads me, the fact that she's got a lot of content in a game with relatively little content and the fact that her and i agree on a lot of issues. i'm definitely going to keep an open mind because i'd say she's the one person who has the highest chance of totally fooling me, but even though it all i'd say i townread her. she has an open and town-motivated thought process that i think is really visible in most of her posts.

Transcend

- probably didn't read any of this because it's all a big wall. transcend's the one everyone scumreads this game, but i'm just not seeing it, and if it's there then nobody has explained it well enough. the meta argument just doesn't seem to make sense, as i said in 237. even just the point that he's not doing any scumhunting doesn't really hold up - yes, there's a lot of one liners and "woof"s, but at the same time there are quite obvious game observations like 142, 144, 150 and 151. yes, i would appreciate it too if transcend were more open with his thought process and gave more explanations, but i don't think it can be attributed to anything other than a playstyle or personality difference. certainly not something to vote someone for, especially given that there are people who have contributed less. if you want to convince me to vote transcend today i would need a better argument than i've seen currently.

northsidegal

- town.

PMysterious

- null. there's definitely scumhunting in pm's iso, i'm just not sure if it comes from town or if it's scum manufactured. actually, i don't know if that's entirely accurate. mostly i just disagree with pm's conclusion in 235. at the same time, with only 9 posts this entire game i'd like to see a bit more from this slot - i don't really have a lot to go off of.

UC Voyager

- for what it's worth i no longer see ucv as scum, at least for the rvs comment. i am now fully convinced that ucv has absolutely no conceptual understanding of what rvs is, so that initial reasoning goes out the window. of more interest are his recent posts, and honestly i have no idea how to interpret them. is "shut up" a town reaction to getting called scum? of note is how he says that he's not scum in another game, without making any sort of comment on this one.

everyone else i'll do later. this is more typing than i'm used to.

[northsidegal]

Whoops I forgot to ego the game

Now do something that isn't just an egopost.

Noted lurker assemble doesn't make this post as town

why not?

[northsidegal]

Infamous lurkers don't confront people on their lack of content immediately after they enter the thread

and where does the assemble/ucv scumteam come into play from?

[northsidegal]

Infamous lurkers don't confront people on their lack of content immediately after they enter the thread

and where does the assemble/ucv scumteam come into play from?

I can't remember

you do remember, but you cant say. :p

It is a long story, and it is aka. im not scum.....he knows this isn't my scum play!

i know what you're referring to, but i'm fairly confident it has little relevance to this thread. i'm also fairly confident we should stop all pseudo-discussion of it given the rules, starting right now.

[northsidegal]

if i had to place it i would probably put sheep as a slight scumlean for the unvote in 78 and how he hasn't placed it anywhere yet

VOTE: north there you go

oh my gosh,

you

suck!

[northsidegal]

if i had to place it i would probably put sheep as a slight scumlean for the unvote in 78 and how he hasn't placed it anywhere yet

VOTE: north there you go

one hell of a omgus!!!! AND IT IS PASSED RVS!!!!!!even if you are town, town isn't always right, so NSG could have been wrong!, but this seems scummy as hell

what exactly is scummy about an omgus vote? walk me through your thought process, ucv.

[northsidegal]

thought process, ucv

an OMGUS vote in RVS is one thing because everyone know it is a joke!


an OMGUS that is serious late day one is shity!

it may indicate

bad

play, but does it indicate scum? if so, why?

[northsidegal]

While this is counter-evidence, not only was it requested,

but it also shows, that Trans can not be trusted, whether he is Town or not.

Every game shown gives a showcase that Trans could be Town, Mafia, or third party. I'm getting some scum vibes, so I'm sticking with Trans as my option for the lynch. I'll look into the 50+ posts he made this game for more thoughts.

explain this, please (the bold). what did you say in the beginning of the post that would indicate that he can't be trusted, town or not?
every game shows that he could be town, mafia or third party? erm, exactly what conclusion do you draw from that statement? that's true for everyone in the game and is a function of the random role assignments rather than a meta playstyle. if you're trying to say that this style of posting doesn't indicate that transcend is town, that's fine, but you've also just proven to yourself and to everyone else that it also doesn't indicate that he's mafia or third party. so what made you end up choosing scum over "it's non-alignment indicative"?

It's more of a trust thing, as the last time I played against Trans, he was Mafia. There's not much difference between that game and the last game I played with him in, so I'm more inclined, based on my nature of playing with the guy, that he's more than likely Scum.

(assuming by "that game" you actually meant "this game")
i get your argument here about a similar playstyle indicating similar alignments, but didn't you go through his meta and find that his playstyle is more or less always the same, regardless of alignment? if that's the case, does it really make sense to call him scum based on playstyle just because the last game you played with him, he was scum? shouldn't it be non-alignment indicative?

[northsidegal]

Key, it is the "I'm here but I'm not going to say anything but I'll come back and say something later" play that's keeping me peckish for him.

He read, after I voted him, and ignored it. Not always scum but then I reiterated and he ignored it again, hand waving it as not serious, choosing to engage me on a tangential topic.

So I said I was serious. And he is running away now.

Point two is the self-admitted garbage vote on sheep, which I guess was lowest hanging fruit.

Fruit, oh god at just made me hungrier...
I suggest we eat him before he comes back.

there are a lot of low-content players this game, some of whom also share the chronic "just checking in will give more thoughts later"-style of posting. what made you look at godel specifically? furthermore, could you explain why you read that style of playing as scummy?

[northsidegal]

hmm.. initially i agreed with you, but now i'm not so sure. looking back at last page's interactions, i'm not sure if i would really call what he did "crawling in". you scumread him for ignoring your naked claims not even that he's scum, but that we should eat him. i think it's entirely reasonable to interpret that as just some kind of setup-based humor rather than an actual scumread - i didn't really know how to interpret it at first myself. furthermore, a lot of people this game have just given naked scum declarations in almost the exact same manner as yours - most have been almost entirely ignored. finally, constant promises to read could easily be scum trying to look busy, but unless godel is posting elsewhere on site and deliberately ignoring this game i would say it's nai.

the problem with all of this is that i really wanted to agree with you - i really hoped that you had caught godel out on something and i was really prepared to vote him, because it would be moving this game towards something actually happening. we're pretty close to deadline now without a really cohesive wagon yet, so the chances of a no-lynch are growing ever higher.

let's talk the rest of the game - have you read through the thread? anything jump out at you / any comments to make?

[northsidegal]

@uc voyager, 306

VOTE: ucv

[northsidegal]

will have more to say on ucv when i get the time - also hopefully he responds more

[northsidegal]

what are some of your reads, ucv?

@uc voyager, 306

VOTE: ucv

thought process, ucv

an OMGUS vote in RVS is one thing because everyone know it is a joke!


an OMGUS that is serious late day one is shity!

it may indicate

bad

play, but does it indicate scum? if so, why?

[northsidegal]

@ucv, why did you unvote in 12?

you voted assemble in 122 because he said you were scum, even though he knows your scumgame. wouldn't you consider that an omgus vote, even though later you said omgus votes indicate scum? do you still think assemble is scum?

if you're lacking content to make reads off of, pages 12, 13 and 15 have plenty.

[northsidegal]

by the way ucv, do you have completed town games where you were there from the start that i could look at? (ie you didn't replace in)

[northsidegal]

i think i would've liked to hear a bit more from ucv before we hammered. if he's scum that gives us more associative information. if town, more time to see how others played around him and his wagon. oh well, if i'm dead then refer back to that huge wallpost i made, almost is still scum.

[northsidegal]

i never even intended for this to be a lynch wagon - i was just voting ucv to get him to answer my question. fos on the people who hopped on the wagon after me.

[northsidegal]

if i was scum i would've just left everything said at where it was - i know that 466 looks like me trying to "wash my hands" of the situation, but i was just reflecting on how we got here. like, was it even twelve hours between my voting ucv and his lynch? does that seem entirely natural / town driven to you?

[northsidegal]

transcend, why did you even hammer if you thought ucv would flip town? like there were hop ons to the ucv wagon that you could've easily pointed out and made a case on, it wasn't as if "oh looks like this is happening no matter what so i guess i

have

to hammer, woe is me". especially thinking ucv is town and not even waiting for a claim doesn't make sense to me.

[northsidegal]

How is starting a wagon on someone you want to question worse than hammering someone you swear is town?

hm? i don't think i said it was. if you're asking about the inverse, "how is hammering someone you swear is town worse than starting a wagon on someone you want to question", votes add pressure. i wanted ucv to answer 306 because he hadn't added much to the game and it seemed like he was dodging my question. i was trying to sort his slot. i'm not going to sit here and pretend that i didn't scumread him, because i did - looking back i just didn't expect this day to end so early.

[northsidegal]

yeah, i feel the same way - on playing with you and on me getting eaten. just treat my corpse as town when trying to figure the night actions out, alright?

[northsidegal]

wait, seriously? it wasn't a hammer? wow, i'm a bit disappointed in myself. i've seen so many fake hammers recently that i thought for sure i had checked and it was actually a hammer. well, that's good then.

VOTE: pmysterious
worst vote on the wagon, probably the best lynch for today.

[northsidegal]

i don't know why you lost trust in me so i don't really know how to get it back. it seems you townread me initially for my frustration with ucv but somewhere in my interactions with almost that went away. also, unless you were joking, you scumread me for 279, but again - i have no idea why. if you want people to start listening to you, you should probably give some kind of reason behind the things that you say.

[northsidegal]

transcend, did you realize that you were fake hammering or did you think it was real?

[northsidegal]

18 hours left. anyone who checks in really needs to place their vote somewhere where it matters and/or make a real argument.

[northsidegal]

okay, i'm going to start with some analysis just so i can wrap my head around this and try to get back into this game.

so, three people died tonight, with none of them flipped. that means that everyone who could kill did - mafia, the serial killer and the vigilante. given the serial killer's 1 shot bulletproof, not only do we know that the serial killer is still alive but we also know that nobody has even targeted the sk. given the fact that nobody flipped and also that if two killers target eachother they'll both flip, we know that no two killers targeted eachother, although it's possible that a killer was targeted by another killer.
three people died and although we know that the serial killer is still alive, we don't know how many scum vs town died. it's possible that no scum were hit and it's also possible that the entire scumteam is dead with just the serial killer left - in the worst case scenario we are curerntly 3/5 scum to town, in the best case 1/7.

still thinking about the motivations behind killing the people who died, that's to follow.

[northsidegal]

while i'm thinking, still happy with this.
VOTE: pmysterious

[northsidegal]

preliminary thoughts:
why was transcend killed? for that matter, why was almost killed? these are the two main questions i've been turning around in my head. i ask these specifically because i find them unexpected as choices, whereas keychain being dead doesn't come as a huge shocker to me really.
which kill came from which killer? there were three deaths, so which one came from scum, which one came from the sk and which one came from the vig? thinking about this should help to explain the motivations behind the kills.
the three people who died were all in somewhat of a scumreading triangle - keychain scumread almost, almost scumread both keychain and transcend, and transcend scumread keychain.
transcend and almost were among the most active players in the game, with keychain being the outlier. probably not relevant now but it'll be useful to consider if vote count / nightkill analysis ever becomes relevant.
looks like almost got what he wanted from back in 187.

[northsidegal]

In the bold, we don't know if nobody targeted the SK. There is a roleblocker, and he/she could still be alive. If he is alive and he targeted the Serial Killer, then that's a possibility in itself, since the SK is also 1-shot Roleblock immune. So, the bold is slightly inaccurate, but it could be interesting to think about.

that entire paragraph i was referring exclusively to the killers - we don't know if a non-killing role targeted the sk, but we do know that no killing role did.

Keychain being killed, not really a big surprise to me either, but in the bold here, there are some theories.

A: Almost or Trans were too town for Scum or SK to be lynch bait, so they killed them off.
B: Trans or Keychain could have been targeted by Vig for being a bit too scummy.

So, with that said, Trans is the only one which could be killed by anyone. Almost was more than likely killed by Scum or SK due to being too town, and Keychain could have been shot by the Vig or SK.

I'll look through the ISOs of all of these players, and hopefully there are some connections.

we're going to have to disagree here on how towny almost was - there's no world where i would describe him as "too town". similarly, transcend had a large wagon on him basically the whole day (which i might remind you, you participated in), although it could be that relation to the ucv lynch might have made him more towny come today. even then i would doubt that point - transcend had a lot of focus on him at the end of the day regarding his hammering of someone he townread, so to me that places transcend as a likely vig shot.

I ate transcend cause I thought he was crummy and irritatingly non contributor. He was vanilla. Still delicious.

any particular reason for the baiting? just so you can laugh at how we ignored the obvious claims postgame, perhaps?

[northsidegal]

It felt right to burst on to the thread in a really obvious/over the top way. I didn't thoroughly read the setup, and knowing that the sk had nightfall immunity would have changed strategy. But by then I had already committed.

to tell you the truth i townread that rationale pretty hard. how would knowing the sk has 1 shot bulletproof change your strat, or is that rolefishing / better left unsaid?

[northsidegal]

It felt right to burst on to the thread in a really obvious/over the top way. I didn't thoroughly read the setup, and knowing that the sk had nightfall immunity would have changed strategy. But by then I had already committed.

to tell you the truth i townread that rationale pretty hard. how would knowing the sk has 1 shot bulletproof change your strat, or is that rolefishing / better left unsaid?

to tell you the truth implies northsidegal has something to hide. I want them to say everything they wanted to say..

i don't put a lot of weight into "slips" or just linguistic quirks like that, and i don't think you should either. i said "to tell you the truth" because although i would think that either to other people or just looking at it on a surface level porkens' reasoning is rather weak, i've seen people use that exact same strategy as scumhunting before and i recognize the reason

why

it makes sense.

I am gonna have sads if three townies died.

I really think that two or three townies died. Just need to look at key here and make a judgment call on that.

With three kills and limited activity afterwards implies killers active. North side gal leaving this out of the assessment makes me really scared about north.

VOTE: North

could you explain this a bit more? if i'm not wrong we have 48 hour night phases and i'm pretty sure this one was made even longer by the lack of a replacement. why would the killers be active just after the night ends if they had 48 hours to submit their kills?

[northsidegal]

It's more I don't see a person being inactive hopping off doing a kill then not posting in game. That's in very poor taste. This means that of the likely players this means that they are at least active pre and/or post flip. I don't see scum just mystically disappearing after a kill. In my experience that hasn't happened from scum. So since we have three kills submitted then why disappear after you got what you wanted. Scum would need to maintain that control. Hence scum are much more likely in the actives rather than the inactives. Especially with vocal voices like A50 and Transcend dead.

i can see what you're saying regarding the second part of your post but for the first part you haven't really given a really good reason, so i still disagree. when it comes to the post count or activity point though, you came to the opposite concusion that i did. two of the three dead were among the most active posters, so rather than scum attempting to dominate the conversation themselves i think it's far more likely they want to take advantage of the lurkers. it was even noticed yesterday how so many people hadn't really added a lot to the game, so to me it seems like scum are either in within the lurkers or setting the lurkers up for the fall, and either way they're attempting to use the lack of activity to their advantage.

@northsidegal: Little lady (judging by the avatar no more), I'm good because I'm good and I don't need to convince you of it. I always have difficulties convincing newbies like yourself when they play with me the first time. Those who know me in this game are Transcend, Not_Mafia & PMysterious. I don't think I've played with anyone else before (unless someone is a secret alt), but that's irrelevant .. kind of.

What is relevant is this: You won't be lynching me today. Period. Try looking somewhere else as to not waste your time and effort. You may as well shoot me at night or wait for D2 to get your desired lynch through, but today I'm well out of your reach unless I myself allow it.

P.S. The above is the most arrogant declaration I have ever made in a Mafia game so far I think. Try to prove me wrong for future reference.

My notes got erased but mainly I'm pretty sure what Northgal either missed or pretended to miss and why Almost50 was killed. And well that's not...good.

i responded in 185 and let me tell you - even if i was scum i wouldn't be scared of almost's attempts to push my lynch.

[northsidegal]

So a huge if but if I'm right and Almost50 was town vig then Almost50 almost certainly shot Key.

This means the Transcend and Almost50 kills were scum and the SK respectively.

This means that Transcend and Almost 50 were fear kills.

porkens has said that she hard claims vigilante - did you miss that or do you not believe that?

also, a few other things. one, why do you assume almost would shoot keychain and not transcend? he scumread both of them. second, do serial killers typically make kills out of fear? i don't have a lot of experience with third parties but i would think that, contrary to mafia's typical motivations, serial killers would be looking more to just survive. while that would suggest they'd shoot someone liable to lynch them, i think in this situation specifically it'd be more likely they'd shoot looking for the vig.

[northsidegal]

I didn't say Almost50 was pushing your lynch and so you shot him. I said that's what happened with scum.

@northsidegal: Little lady (judging by the avatar no more), I'm good because I'm good and I don't need to convince you of it. I always have difficulties convincing newbies like yourself when they play with me the first time. Those who know me in this game are Transcend, Not_Mafia & PMysterious. I don't think I've played with anyone else before (unless someone is a secret alt), but that's irrelevant .. kind of.

What is relevant is this: You won't be lynching me today. Period. Try looking somewhere else as to not waste your time and effort. You may as well shoot me at night or wait for D2 to get your desired lynch through, but today I'm well out of your reach unless I myself allow it.

P.S. The above is the most arrogant declaration I have ever made in a Mafia game so far I think. Try to prove me wrong for future reference.

My notes got erased but mainly I'm pretty sure what Northgal either missed or pretended to miss and why Almost50 was killed. And well that's not...good.

so if that's not what you're saying, then what exactly are you saying here? your sentence is a little hard to understand. even more, it's not exactly a huge leap to look at you mentioning me possibly intentionally ignoring something and the reason why almost died in one sentence and to take it that you're implying i killed him.

[northsidegal]

If I'm still alive tomorrow which i doubt because i reckon both sk and mafia will kill me let's double team Keychain

With Transcend and Almost50 both suspecting Key I'm pretty damn certain Key was scum.

is that just an argument from both of them being good players? besides, almost's scumread on key was predicated on the idea that transcend was also scum. if you take it that both of them suspecting key makes her scum you would also be saying that transcend was bussing his partner. which, ironically he said in 261:

Because I'm bussing my shit partner lol

of course, it's possible that one of them was the serial killer and so even though the scumread was predicated on trasncend being scum, they still could've been a part of different factions. that idea doesn't hold up, however, because we know that the serial killer hasn't died.

[northsidegal]

First of all on the second paragraph the idea that Almost could be thinking Transcend is the SK doesn't hold up is bad. Almost could have had thought that and been wrong. However here I doubt it. Almost to be quite honest I don't think has enough experience with Transcend to read him. The simple answer is: if he's antitown and annoys you he's town just ignore him til he tries to be nice. {{Transcend if you read this I'm sorry for if this comes off rude but not the main point....}}

but i'm pretty sure almost didn't think that - he stated quite clearly that he thought i was the serial killer and that transcend was mafia.

Furthermore, no I wouldn't. That actually makes Transcend town with a scumread on Key.

Transcend hard claimed scum in mini 1900 and I tunnelled him literally to a town loss for it. He jokes around claiming scum all the time and it pisses me off. He was trying to goad almost50 into voting key who he genuinely thought was scum.

not entirely sure what you're trying to say here or what question you're responding to. i was just quoting transcend to prove a point - using transcend and almost's scumread on key to say that she was scum requires that you also think transcend was scum. you're trusting almost's read on keychain but then not trusting his read on transcend (which is what his keychain read was based on) for seemingly no reason.

If a50 was the big, the person he ate would flip.

You have one more post before to turn yourself around.

wouldn't this only be the case if a50 targeted the person who also targeted him? otherwise, don't his kills go into the person who killed him's larder?

[northsidegal]

My pool is North you and NotMafia and assemble. However the latter two baaaaaaaaaaaaaarely have their fingers in and that's because they haven't done jack and could be scum lurking but again that's in so poor taste I only want to go there if I townread literally every other player.

why do you clear godel and pmyst? why do you scumread porkens?

[northsidegal]

u r right.

But I'd like both of you to stop arguing with each other and give reads on other players.

I am not joking. I am the vig. Believe it.

i think pmysterious is scummy. as for other reads i'd have to think more to reconcile the possible teams of mafia/sk with the nightkills.

who did you shoot, and what were they? from what you said before i'm assuming you shot a50.

[northsidegal]

My pool is North you and NotMafia and assemble. However the latter two baaaaaaaaaaaaaarely have their fingers in and that's because they haven't done jack and could be scum lurking but again that's in so poor taste I only want to go there if I townread literally every other player.

why do you clear godel and pmyst? why do you scumread porkens?

I don't clear them perse I just suspect both you and porkens more. I don't "clear" anyone.

I scumread porkens because porkens play is hella weird and because his pool is terribad. He is asking you questions and not following up.

Pedit: Porkens I don't believe you. Who are you claiming to shoot and why?

first point is nai as far as i can tell, porkens always plays a little unorthodox. could you give an example on the second point?

regarding the "clearing", i guess what i'm asking is why do you seemingly townread pmysterious and godel?

Neither of you are reading the game.

right, can't believe i missed that.

[northsidegal]

And if you are the town vig you'd answer the questions north and I asked.

I'm quite wondering if this game is just solved and it's north and porkens. North being group scum with key and porkens being the SK and almost 50 and key is in porkens belly and north has transcends remains.

consider how you're scumreading the more active people and certainly the only people who have been active today. don't you think it's likely you're making large conclusions just based on what you've seen rather than the entire gamestate?

[northsidegal]

so here are my stream of consciousness thoughts about the nightkills, taking into account the new information. among keychain and a50, one was the mafia shot and one was the serial killer shot. i just can't see any serial killer motivation for killing a50, whereas if i consider the scenario where the sk killed keychain, godel's name jumps into my mind immediately. that slot just moved a lot more down the list for me. then, if we're to take it that the sk shot keychain, mafia shot a50. i'm not entirely sure why this would happen so it casts doubt in my mind if this is the case. possibilities for who as mafia would want a50 dead would be a mafia keychain and... can't really think of anyone else. i'll definitely have to think about this a bit more.

this is all assuming, of course, that porkens is telling the truth.

[northsidegal]

And if you are the town vig you'd answer the questions north and I asked.

I'm quite wondering if this game is just solved and it's north and porkens. North being group scum with key and porkens being the SK and almost 50 and key is in porkens belly and north has transcends remains.

consider how you're scumreading the more active people and certainly the only people who have been active today. don't you think it's likely you're making large conclusions just based on what you've seen rather than the entire gamestate?

Oh you're trying to imply it's only based on what I have seen. I guarantee you I have read this thread and am entirely caught up and it's on all of it. Getting your question in a sec.

not necessarily, i'm just saying you're basing your reads entirely on the people that you yourself have interacted with.

A winner is you!

VOTE: mathblade

In that crazy fountain game, math, I replaced in and town read you so fucking hard that when you flipped scum, I KNEW your flip had been tampered with.

This game, not at all.

A) I didn't flip ANYTHING I was janitored.
B) You aren't townreading me because I scumread you.
C) If you were the town vig you'd actually give TOWN the info here of who you killed and their alignment.
Reason being if scum believe you and you're the vig you're dead
and if scum don't believe you then you get more time to operate and shoot scum.
D) Knowing what someone's alignment was makes it infinitely easier to put this puzzle together. And if you're ever wrong on an alignment you become policy.

So who'd you kill? Why? And what were they?

porkens has said who she killed. i thought you said you read the thread?

[northsidegal]

C) If you were the town vig you'd actually give TOWN the info here of who you killed and their alignment.
Reason being if scum believe you and you're the vig you're dead
and if scum don't believe you then you get more time to operate and shoot scum.

wait, what are you trying to say here? you've said that you scumread porkens for the odd play, but aren't you saying here yourself that it makes sense for porkens to act so unorthox about being the vig? all of the baiting makes a lot more sense now. if scum don't believe porkens, she should be able to stay alive longer. also, you have to forgive me if i don't really understand how your reasoning supports your assertion. the two things seem pretty unrelated, to me. like, that reasoning would actually support porkens lying about her info, because then it'd be like hypoclaiming - scum would think porkens is lying if she said she shot the person that scum actually shot (given that we know there were three separate kills).

[northsidegal]

And if porkens was an actual vig porkens would just eat me. However Porkens isn't a vig and is scum so Porkens has to push me.

why wouldn't scum porkens also just eat you?

[northsidegal]

so here are my stream of consciousness thoughts about the nightkills, taking into account the new information. among keychain and a50, one was the mafia shot and one was the serial killer shot. i just can't see any serial killer motivation for killing a50, whereas if i consider the scenario where the sk killed keychain, godel's name jumps into my mind immediately. that slot just moved a lot more down the list for me. then, if we're to take it that the sk shot keychain, mafia shot a50. i'm not entirely sure why this would happen so it casts doubt in my mind if this is the case. possibilities for who as mafia would want a50 dead would be a mafia keychain and... can't really think of anyone else. i'll definitely have to think about this a bit more.

this is all assuming, of course, that porkens is telling the truth.

LOL This is a crock. No decent SK/scum ever shoots keychain.

Keychain was primed and ready for pressure by multiple players.

not really. keychain's wagon never went anywhere and it was never really going anywhere. meanwhile, keychain was the one, increidbly active player who was casting suspicion on godel and forced activity out of him. it just makes a lot of intuitive sense to me that the serial killer shot keychain, and that serial killer was godel. if keychain being shot by mafia makes more sense to you, what's your reasoning behind that?

[northsidegal]

Yes I do scumread porkens for the odd play.
I'm not saying anything about making sense to be unorthodox.
I'm asking porkens to be orthodox.

right, and what i'm saying is that porkens

should

be acting unorthodox - the theatrics clearly cast doubt on the claim as evidenced by your disbelief, so if scum don't believe porkens then she lives another day.

And if porkens was an actual vig porkens would just eat me. However Porkens isn't a vig and is scum so Porkens has to push me.

why wouldn't scum porkens also just eat you?

Because my being eaten or my flip implicates porkens way too much.

Porkens wants me to shut the fuck up and tries to intimidate me with a vote but apparently porkens hasn't seen a math tunnel.

Because porkens is going down and we are winning this game.

ah, i see what you're saying - if porkens was the vigilante then rather than voting you today she'd just save you for the nightkill, right? hmm... makes sense, but i feel like it's a simplification. after all, the vigilante presumably still votes a person they scumread during the day, correct? there's no reason they couldn't both vote someone they scumread and choose another scumread for the nightkill.

[northsidegal]

there were a lot of people who talked about the vig shot in ways that could be interpreted as soft claims - taken alone, i'm not sure there's any reason to put more faith in one over the other.

[northsidegal]

No. Absolutely not. Porkens should not be acting unorthodox at all. The time to be unorthodox was

before

she claimed.

She absolutely lost that right when she didn't kill the player crumbing vig and then claiming vig with an absolutely atrocious kill in the case she is the vig.

If she is the vig and then SK killed Almost50 and mafia killed keychain (again why??? it's literally silly at that point as keychain was under a fuck ton of pressure) then the SK or mafia will shoot her simply because the number of bodies is piling up. They cannot afford to not shoot her and take the claim seriously.

i was about to make a point to the effect of "the fact that you still don't believe her means that if she is telling the truth, there's still a chance scum don't believe her", but then i thought about it a bit more. assuming that no killing role died and thus in each killer's larder there is only one body (just because it would complicate things), scum would know if porkens is lying if she claimed the same kill as them. if that's not the case, then there's still a doubt in both the serial killer and in mafia's mind as to whether or not she's telling the truth, so i think my point still stands.

there were a lot of people who talked about the vig shot in ways that could be interpreted as soft claims - taken alone, i'm not sure there's any reason to put more faith in one over the other.

Even if you make that argument, transcend wasn't one of those players.

are you taking almost's 176 as a vig claim? i don't interpret it that way at all. also, he was one of those players.

not hammer*

also keychain gets vigged @vig

no exceptions

she is scum

i have her pinned down for sure

[northsidegal]

Oooh maybe it's Porkens and Key and just north is SK or derp town?

I don't see how Porkens shoots Transcend here at all with the dead townie FoS'ing transcend. That's bullshit. A push on Transcend was possible unless keychain was scum and it'd look weird coming from the partner.

serial killer or derp town, huh? what exactly have i done that warrants either one of these reads? what about my play is scummy or "derp"?

also, could you elaborate on the bolded part? completely honestly, it doesn't make a lick of sense to me.

[northsidegal]

I've played with Almost for literally a year+ of game time. I know when Almost is crumbing and when he isn't. Just because you missed it doesn't mean I didn't.

i'm not accepting this as an argument, unless you're going to find links or similar posts from previous games.

Guess what if Transcend was the vig you'd still be running up Porkens for claiming Transcend vanilla. He'd claim Transcend scum of some kind as that's the only way he'd have a kill. So no Transcend was shot because Porkens wanted him dead because Transcend was a threat to Porkens.

i wasn't saying that transcend was the vig - i was saying that a lot of players have made comments at the vig similar to what a50 said, and that it doesn't really prove anything to me.

Oooh maybe it's Porkens and Key and just north is SK or derp town?

I don't see how Porkens shoots Transcend here at all with the dead townie FoS'ing transcend. That's bullshit. A push on Transcend was possible unless keychain was scum and it'd look weird coming from the partner.

serial killer or derp town, huh? what exactly have i done that warrants either one of these reads? what about my play is scummy or "derp"?

also, could you elaborate on the bolded part? completely honestly, it doesn't make a lick of sense to me.

As a vig you need to shoot someone who you feel cannot be lynched. Transcend was under suspicion by keychain and almost 50. In other words he's a bad shot as he could be lynched tomorrow. Hence why the shot is bullshit again because pushing transcend was possible unless Keychain is Porkens partner and she got scared and fear killed Transcend.

trasncend wasn't really under all that much suspicion from keychain, although i'll admit she could have changed her viewpoint come today - keep in mind though that there were people defending transcend from being lynched day one. it sounds to me like you're claiming the shot is fake because porkens thinks differently from you - consider that not ever vigilante goes through the same thought process as you. also, i sincerely doubt that keychain would be scared of transcend's pushing her. again, keychain was never really under any risk of being lynched and i seriously doubt she would have been.

[northsidegal]

No...No one said something similar to what A50 said. Transcend begged the vig to shoot keychain. Making him not the vig. Porkens has a 2000s join date. Burden of proficiency falls there.

let's take a look at what transcend said again:

not hammer*

also keychain gets vigged @vig

no exceptions

she is scum

i have her pinned down for sure

there's really nothing in there that i would call "begging". it's just a statement that keychain is getting vigged. i'd say if you're going to interpret either as a soft vig claim, this one makes more sense - while this one never even implies that transcend isn't the vig, a50's post implies that he isn't the vig.

If I claim cop in a newbie game and am not the cop. The real cop knows I am scum and tunnels me to death. Porkens shoots A50 here if vig. Period. There is only one town vig. And yes she was. It's fucking Transcend. From the join date she has to know Transcend.

that again relies both on a50's post being a vig claim and on porkens picking up on that. you're acting like transcend is some god that all the newbies and the scumsters fear and while i'm not trying to doubt transcend's skill, if i was in keychain's situation i certainly wouldn't be scared. transcend's case on her the entire day basically boiled down to quoting her rvs post. now, there's probably some depth there in transcend's argument that i'm not seeing or that he hadn't made clear yet, but he wasn't really one to make a real case on someone and to push their lynch through. also consider that it took until basically halfway through the day for

anyone else

to even hop on the keychain wagon, and nobody else that entire day did.

i have to disregard any argument that relies on keychain being afraid of transcend or almost lynching her tomorrow as evidence because it just doesn't make sense.

[northsidegal]

not really. keychain's wagon never went anywhere and it was never really going anywhere. meanwhile, keychain was the one, increidbly active player who was casting suspicion on godel and forced activity out of him. it just makes a lot of intuitive sense to me that the serial killer shot keychain, and that serial killer was godel. if keychain being shot by mafia makes more sense to you, what's your reasoning behind that?

I am not stupid, this just makes me a lynchbait. And you bringing this up makes me think you engineered this situation.

me engineering this situation would require foreknowledge that the vigilante would claim a kill - otherwise a push on you for killing keychain would be almost entirely speculation. it's not a stupid move for you as the sk to kill keychain at all, here - she was the only one really pressuring you, multiple people said she should be vigged and the flipless setup makes it even safer.

[northsidegal]

Don't play stupid. I am saying you killed Keychain and set me up as lynchbait.

right, and what

i'm

saying is that that situation is impossible, or at least so unlikely as to be a non-argument. let's say that i did kill keychain. how would i use this to frame you? there's no way i could have known the vig would claim a kill and so if i was going to push this false narrative i would be making a wild claim that you did it without any evidence. it doesn't make sense.

[northsidegal]

i'm not entirely sure i want a mathblade lynch. like, i'm pretty sure he's wrong on a lot of accounts but i haven't gotten a huge scum vibe from him. i'd much rather lynch godel here - not satisfied with his response.
VOTE: godel

[northsidegal]

Anyone not voting Porkens ask yourself the following:

If what Porkens did was really a vig crumb and really that obvious why is Porkens alive?

Here's a hint..Porkens isn't the vig.

Is this a counter-claim?

Are you even reading? I said Almost is the vig.

It's not a counterclaim.

It is just raw confidence.

If you aren't going to counter-claim, then you have no real reason to dispute a claim.

By saying that Almost is the Vig, this either implies that you know something that we don't, or you're talking out of your ass, and I'm inclined to believe that it is the latter of the two.

VOTE: Math. That's L-1.

yeah, this definitely confirms to me that i'm not okay with a math lynch today. i think he's wrong but i also think that godel is scum. just the amount of lazy votes on this wagon should make anyone on it reconsider.

[northsidegal]

You try and refute the fact that you scumread (or cannibalread ) the players that questioned your thought process, then follow it up by doing exactly that.

You know what's wrong with this? It's the fact that id if it is

true

then I'm definitely

not a cannibal

. And you know what that means? It means I'm

definitely not scum

. You know why? Because

all scum are cannibals

, so I cannot be a non-cannibal and still be scum at the same time.

But I feel like I've done a good job exposing all scumsters in one go through my behaviour, so I don't mind eating rope tofay in order to get the VIG IN PARTICULAR to follow my reads.

Irrelevant:

@Comm: Did you have to be the mod in this game? We seem to need a

good vig

in the block, my friend.

Here Almost50 claims vig.

In the case Porkens is the vig and Transcend was a vanilla kill then the SK has to shoot Almost 50 because they'd be mafia.

However I highly doubt that because if Porkens was the vig Porkens shoots Almost50 here without a doubt.

We need a good vig in this game according to Almost50. Here Almost50 laments there isn't a good vig and wants CommKnight to be the vig as CommKnight knows who to kill. Almost50 is saying he doesn't have that information making him a bag vig. Hence Almost50 is the Town vig.

clearly you have to understand here that this is circular reasoning or just isn't a logical proof - a50 laments there isn't a good vig and even implies that he isn't the vig by saying he'd be willing to get lynched to get the vig to follow his reads. there's no logical connection between your second to last and your last sentence. him saying that he doesn't have that information would only be him saying that he's a bad vig

if you already accept that he's the vig.

[northsidegal]

@northsidegal: You keep spewing jusnk all over, again and again.

1- First you do not understand but you claim it doesn't make sense. Then you say you managed to understand but it still doesn't make sense. Well, perhaps you need to check on your own definition of sense and/or readjust.

2- The Vig would not be OK getting lynched, but they would not be going after the one who suggested getting rid of all cannibals either. The one more likely to do so is the one who is most threatened by the concept, which I perceive to be the one who is working all alone.

3- Not all cannibals are scum, I agree. However ALL BLOODY SCUM ARE CANNIBALS. Now if you don't understand what I'm saying still you need not respond to me at all. Just vote me or ignore me. I'm not here to babysit you. If you do have a brain I suggest you use it.

4- Obviously I don't have evidence to your win con as I didn't get your role PM. Asking me to provide evidence to your win con being that of the SK is one of the silliest defences that could ever be made against the accusation. Reread point #2 in this response for more illustration (which will probably still make no sense to you).

In short, you need to push for my lynch today as hard as you can. If not; you had better kill me tonight (I initially typed "eat me" but realized it could be mistaken for an insult under the circumstances). If I'm still alive tomorrow I'm likely to keep pushing you, or -at the vfery least- grace you with more stuff that just "doesn't make sense at all" whether you understand them or not.

In the mean time...

VOTE: Transcend

for now.

Almost50 has northgal pegged as SK which I completely agree with and Almost50's ISO is littered with what the vig would be doing lololol.

So mafia killed Transcend so Porkens. Northgal is SK

Everyone else is Town. Keychain is dead mafia.

You're welcome.

i already said this before to a50 but the thing is i already know that i'm not the serial killer and so i already know that you're wrong on that account - given that i know you're wrong on one of the conclusions you've gathered from your starting point i myself can conclude that you're most likely wrong elsewhere. thus, i'm a bit more confident in my godel analysis.

If I'm still alive tomorrow which i doubt because i reckon both sk and mafia will kill me let's double team Keychain

With Transcend and Almost50 both suspecting Key I'm pretty damn certain Key was scum.

@havingfitz

Because Almost50 and Transcend have a townie intelligence quotient bigger than mine. Like I start scumreading them if they scumread too much Town. The fact two really good players agree on Keychain is something noteworthy.

And I am voting Porkens. If a VC doesn't show it I don't mind revoting or poking the mod.

good players can make mistakes - is this all you have to go on for keychain being scum?

[northsidegal]

Clearly you're not getting it or you're just not Town if you say it is circular so I will break it down premise by premise.

Premise 1: According to the setup there is a Town vig.
Premise 2: Almost50 says we need a good vig in the [town] block.
Premise 3: Notice the italics in the statement above. The italics are for emphasis.
Premise 4: At this point Almost is calling the vig bad in comparison to CommKnight who knows everything about the setup including who the scum are.

Premise 1-4 directly are based off what is written there. If you don't get premise 1-4 there is no way you're just gonna get it and are just going to have to accept it.

Premise 5 Almost50 was trying to build a town block. Reason: The block statement.
Premise 6 Almost50's block would include the vig.
Premise 7 based on sentence structure the block already had a bad vig.
Premise 8 the only way the block has a bad Town vig is if it is Almost50.

Rebuttal to counter : Almost50 offered to be lynched: Wifom

counterpoint to premise 5 - "block" is a general statement to refer to a group of people, especially in a mafia game. it doesn't necessarily imply intent of anything, or even specifically intent to form a "town block".
counterpoint to premise 7 - saying that we need a good vig this game doesn't necessarily imply that the game already has a bad vig. the statement is also easily interpreted as saying that "if town wants to win this game, the vigilante will have to be good". for example, if a baseball coach were to say "we're going to need some good players to win this year", it wouldn't necessarily be implying that the current players are bad - take it exactly how it is, merely saying that good players will be required to win. even in a mafia game, imagine the statement "we're going to need some good cop results if town wants to win this one", or "we need a good doctor if town is going to pull this off". neither necessarily imply that the speaker has some sort of information about the skill level of the pr, nor do they imply that the speaker is the role that they're discussing.

you're going to have to explain presmise 8 more if you want to convince me. what i assume you're trying to say in premise 8 is that "the only way a50 could confidently make the statement that the vig is bad is if he knew that he was the vig" - except i don't accept the previous premise (ie i don't accept that he was confidently making the statement that the vig is bad), and thus i can't accept this.

[northsidegal]

Premise 7: Yes. It does. It is implied CommKnight is a good vig. Cannot have good without bad.
Hence Almost50 is a bad vig.

Premise 8 follows from premise 7.

not an acceptable response to what i was saying - i think anyone being honest with themselves should be able to see that.

[northsidegal]

guys, "glips" means flips, like the alignments flipping.

not mafia, ucv's alignment flipped. what does that tell you?

[northsidegal]

Cus I am not sure porkens really is the big and I want to give my 2 cents before he spins it into something where he comes across as a pro town

when did you start believing that porkens wasn't the vig? earlier it appeared like you did, so what changed? also, if you think porkens is lying, why isn't your vote on him?

Ewww

That is a vote with northsidegal.

Northsidegal convince me you're Town or opposite alignment of Godel like how I read you as SK.

trying to point to the scumhunting i've done or everything pro-town in my iso is pointless because of the predictable response that "the serial killer wants to know who scum are too". therefore, the only thing i can really say in my defense is that i never would have made any of the kills that happened night one if i were the serial killer. keychain townread me, so there was absolutely no reason to get rid of her from my point of view. transcend and a50 both seemed to scumread me but i really was not concerned with their ability to push a lynch through on me. also, i'm not usually this petty but a50 said that he wanted to get shot tonight because i was annoying him so much, so i probably wouldn't have shot him.

math, assume for a moment that godel flips serial killer here. what are your updated reads and what's your new analysis of how the night went down?

now assume further that godel flips sk and keychain flips town from his larder - how does that change things?

[northsidegal]

Cus I am not sure porkens really is the big and I want to give my 2 cents before he spins it into something where he comes across as a pro town

when did you start believing that porkens wasn't the vig? earlier it appeared like you did, so what changed? also, if you think porkens is lying, why isn't your vote on him?

Ewww

That is a vote with northsidegal.

Northsidegal convince me you're Town or opposite alignment of Godel like how I read you as SK.

trying to point to the scumhunting i've done or everything pro-town in my iso is pointless because of the predictable response that "the serial killer wants to know who scum are too". therefore, the only thing i can really say in my defense is that i never would have made any of the kills that happened night one if i were the serial killer. keychain townread me, so there was absolutely no reason to get rid of her from my point of view. transcend and a50 both seemed to scumread me but i really was not concerned with their ability to push a lynch through on me. also, i'm not usually this petty but a50 said that he wanted to get shot tonight because i was annoying him so much, so i probably wouldn't have shot him.

math, assume for a moment that godel flips serial killer here. what are your updated reads and what's your new analysis of how the night went down?

now assume further that godel flips sk and keychain flips town from his larder - how does that change things?

I will consider that if it happens.

I find that so remote I will adjust if it does.

why are you so sure you'll still be alive to talk?

[northsidegal]

Maybe Godel and Havingfitz and northsidegal SK and just Porkens is terribad and Almost/Transcend had an off game

don't you think you move into dangerous territory, rationally speaking, when you declare another player "terribad" if their assessment of something and your assessment don't match up? i guess what i'm really asking is - why are you so absolutely confident that you're correct? town are in even more of low-information state here than in typical games. even more, some of your conclusions come from what seem to me to be weak logical connections, ie a50 and transcend are good players, they thought keychain was scum and thus keychain was scum.

i'm trying to determine here if there's something alignment-relevant about all of this but i'm having a hard time coming up with anything.

[northsidegal]

Maybe Godel and Havingfitz and northsidegal SK and just Porkens is terribad and Almost/Transcend had an off game

don't you think you move into dangerous territory, rationally speaking, when you declare another player "terribad" if their assessment of something and your assessment don't match up? i guess what i'm really asking is - why are you so absolutely confident that you're correct? town are in even more of low-information state here than in typical games. even more, some of your conclusions come from what seem to me to be weak logical connections, ie a50 and transcend are good players, they thought keychain was scum and thus keychain was scum.

i'm trying to determine here if there's something alignment-relevant about all of this but i'm having a hard time coming up with anything.

It's much more than just a rational assessment though.

I have had terribad games before.

If Porkens is the vig and killed Transcend that was a terrible shot.
Furthermore the Keychain kill was bad.

Like I am not judging the player I am judging the play itself.

Like I have more experience than most in flipless games. Mainly people need to realize what they are doing and learn from it.

if you are town, you are in the same position of non-information as the rest of us. how can you conclusively say that, regardless of the player or the context under which scum or the sk acted, the keychain kill was bad? like, you're making these confident claims but unless you're scum the only way you could see these things that the rest of us couldn't is through your assessment. i'm asking you to walk me through that assessment, and on a deeper level than "a50 and transcend are good and thus keychain is scum".

[northsidegal]

The people off the wagon were Keychain, northsidegal, Havingfitz, not Mafia and Almost50.

i was on the wagon.

[northsidegal]

The people off the wagon were Keychain, northsidegal, Havingfitz, not Mafia and Almost50.

We know there were no reciprocal shots.

If Keychain killed anyone it had to be Almost50 or Transcend. If Keychain killed Transcend Porkens is scum. So from the common view (Porkens vig which I don't believe) then the only person Keychain could kill is almost50.

Similarly the only person A50 could shoot without Porkens being scum is Keychain.

One of them has to have not shot anyone else we'd be looking at flips.

Therefore Keychain is town not vig, Town who shot Almost50, or mafia who shot Almost50 or mafia partner did a kill.

Repeat for Almost50 swapping word with Keychain.

Now let's break down their ISOs.

my problem with this analysis is that you start from the perspective of both keychain being scum

and

a50 being the vig, and then analyze the game from that viewpoint, but i'm not starting from that same perspective and so this analysis is basically useless to me. like, if you want me to put any stock into what you're saying i need a better reason for why keychain was scum than what you've provided. at the very least it seems you assume both keychain and a50 were killing roles, but i see no reason to believe why either of them were.

Keychain's last dying wish was for a Godel lynch and votes Transcend.

This strongly implies who to fucking nightkill. If it was already hammer then why the hell would Keychain vote Transcend and not Godel?

you believe keychain is scum, so are you saying she crumbed who she was going to nightkill? how does that make sense?

also, let's look at keychain's exact quote:

Assuming it's not twilight:

VOTE: Transcend

Since nobody's going to lynch Goedel today are they

for one, it was already hammer but the mod had posted without ending the day so we all thought that the day was still going. for two, she explicitly says that she's voting transcend because it seems like she can't get a godel wagon through.

even more, what are you concluding from that? it seems to me like you're implying that keychain crumbed or otherwise indicated who she was going to kill during the day, but i don't see any reason why she would do that.

[northsidegal]

What I find more likely is Mafia was trying to signal to SK who they were killing.

why would scum do this?

[northsidegal]

Yo NSG still waiting for the proof where I said I believed porkens claim, not nice making accusations and when someone asks from proof you don't back it up, mighty scummy.

read exactly what i said, carefully:

Cus I am not sure porkens really is the big and I want to give my 2 cents before he spins it into something where he comes across as a pro town

when did you start believing that porkens wasn't the vig? earlier it appeared like you did, so what changed? also, if you think porkens is lying, why isn't your vote on him?

first sentence: not an implication that you ever did believe porkens was the vig, a question of when you started to disbelieve him. it could've been from the start, for all i know. you never actually answered this question, you just got defensive in 767.
second sentence: "earlier it appeared like you did" - not a hard accusation. i mainly got it from 706:

If you really are the vig you are a super crappy one!

so, i'll ask again: when did you first start doubting porkens' claim, and what caused that?

[northsidegal]

i'm not sure i have much else to add right now until either godel makes his post, not mafia says more or assemble remembers that he's in this game. i'll probably post my "if i die" thoughts sometime later today.

[northsidegal]

okay, one kill, what does that tell us? assuming that everyone who could kill would, that means that two people's kills were blocked in some way. i think at this point we can probably assume that porkens is the vig and he targeted pmysterious like he said he would. on that point i come to the same conclusion as math there, pm is probably the serial killer. that still leaves one kill unaccounted for, however: possibilities there include both the serial killer and mafia targeting porkens, or the roleblocker preventing a kill.

by the way, i'm hesitating a bit before voting pm. i think it's safe to assume now that pm is the serial killer, but let's say we lynch him today. if we're in the unfortunate scenario where 2 scum are still alive, that puts us at 3/2/1 for today. lynching to go into the night with 3/2 ends up losing us the game. if the dietician is still alive then i think we need results outed.

in fact, if there are still two scum alive then i'm not actually sure town can still win - even if we lynch one scum we'd still have to rely on the remaining scum cross firing.

[northsidegal]

it is a theoretical possibility that only the serial killer remains, and both scum are already dead, hence only one kill. that theory relies on porkens being scum along with one of keychain and almost50 being his scumbuddy, with the other being the vigilante (or transcend being the vigilante, assuming porkens wasn't lying about killing transcend). i'm not sure how much this changes things or even if this theory is worth considering, but it's a possibility.

[northsidegal]

by the way, pmysterious - you should really just claim and tell us who you've killed and what their alignment / roles were. it's your only chance at winning this game - lie and you're lynched anyways, tell the truth and we may end up lynching scum instead of you today.

[northsidegal]

by the way, pmysterious - you should really just claim and tell us who you've killed and what their alignment / roles were. it's your only chance at winning this game - lie and you're lynched anyways, tell the truth and we may end up lynching scum instead of you today.

[northsidegal]

i'm taking these results with extreme suspicion - the reads are awfully convinient and this just makes me think that pm has already eaten the real dietician. it all comes down to last night - i don't understand why you're not dead if you're not the serial killer here. there's always the possibility that porkens just decided not to shoot, but i don't believe that's likely.

[northsidegal]

you guys realize that there's a chance lynching pm still loses us the game, even if he is the serial killer, right?

i'd seriously recommend unvoting.

[northsidegal]

you guys realize that there's a chance lynching pm still loses us the game, even if he is the serial killer, right?

i'd seriously recommend unvoting.

No. There isn't.

If Porkens isn't the vig (doubtful as he seemed to take both the mafia shot and the SK shot or two people shot the SK and porkens called someone other than PM jigglypuff which I doubt) >> Almost 50 was. In any world, the vig is dead.

So therefore if PM is the SK then there will be one kill overnight.
6 alive >> 5 alive post SK lynch >> 4 alive with 1-2 mafia.

If two mafia are alive at this point I think we just lose no matter what.

6 alive >> lynch a mafia >> two kills >> 3 alive (1 town one mafia one SK)

So I don't see any world other than lynching PM here.

i mean, you just agreed with me there - there is a chance lynching pm loses us the game. there's also a chance lynching scum would lose us the game - both scenarios are dependent on whether two scum are alive or just one. i think i'm still on for lynching pm, just saying that we should consider things a bit before throwing votes around - this is basically a lylo scenario.

[northsidegal]

Alright, seeing as there is very little choice in the matter, I am indeed the SK. I killed Almost50 on Night 1, and he was the Dietician. On Night 2, I killed Porkens, and he was the Vigilante, and Trans was VT. I do not know if Keychain was Mafia or not, so if you guys actually want a chance of winning, lynching me will not be the best of options. I'm willing to work with you guys to find Mafia, just lead the way.

yes!!! it worked!

[northsidegal]

so i'm leaning more towards believing fitz here. going to do some reviewing.

[northsidegal]

so i'm leaning more towards believing fitz here. going to do some reviewing.

okay, so scum killed keychain night one and everything else has been the truth - porkens killed transcend and he was vt, pm killed a50 and he was the dietician. i'm fairly certain i have it all worked out such that there's no reason town should lose this. i'll make a bigger post detailing it all sometime soon, but i think the main takeaway is that we lynch math today.

[northsidegal]

We should lynch claimed scum today.

This isn't hard.

i know that you understand that if the game is 3/2/1 and we lynch pm, town loses. i

know

you understand that.

anyone who votes pm right now is scumclaiming.

[northsidegal]

If the game is 3/2/1 we lynch mafia we lose.

Soooo your point? If we lynch anyone we lose if we lynch scum we lose we just lose.

no, in fact even without the roleblocker i'm pretty sure it's a guaranteed win for town, or at the very least a draw if there's some heavily suboptimal play and people get very lucky. i regret that i didn't get around to making that post going through it all today but anybody reading this shouldn't believe you.

[northsidegal]

i was still working on making this more comprehensive but here it is-

Okay, i think i've worked it out where we don't even need to rely on pm to be telling the truth about who he's going to shoot to win this. I've taken the time to get the capital letters out for this one, because it's important that you all read this:

We lynch Math today, that flips scum. We're left with

3

/

1

/

1

. Let's assume both scum and the SK shoot within town, that leaves us with a

1

/

1

/

1

lylo, with the townie having been kingmade. Not only is this a scenario both the mafia and the sk will want to avoid because it's gambling as to who wins, but in this scenario, the townie can actually just self-vote, both scum will be forced to shoot eachother and everyone loses. With that knowledge, both scum and sk should realize that they can't both shoot within town, they have to shoot each other. Them shooting each other obviously results in a town victory. But let's assume that one agrees with that but the other defects or makes a mistake and shoots within town - then, we're left with a

2

/

1

lylo. If PM is the 1 still alive, lynch him. Otherwise, lynch the final mafia.

[northsidegal]

you're saying that scum shooting the serial killer isn't in their interest, but it's actually a sort of prisoner's dilemna scenario. among scum and the serial killer, the one who "defects" is the one who has really the only shot at winning the game - scum have to shoot pm because they have to rely on pm shooting within town to win the game. it's hard to explain all of the possibilities but basically scum shooting within town relies on pm also shooting within town, but loses them the game if pm chose to shoot them. i'm pretty sure it's a nash equilibrium - the completely optimal play is to defect and shoot the other cannibal.

[northsidegal]

by the way, all of 937 isn't even considering the roleblocker factoring into any of it.

why didn't you factor in the roleblocker in 936, but you did when going through the possibilites of a serial killer lynch? that's disingenuous.

[northsidegal]

also, math: who's the roleblocker?

[northsidegal]

you're saying that scum shooting the serial killer isn't in their interest, but it's actually a sort of prisoner's dilemna scenario. among scum and the serial killer, the one who "defects" is the one who has really the only shot at winning the game - scum have to shoot pm because they have to rely on pm shooting within town to win the game. it's hard to explain all of the possibilities but basically scum shooting within town relies on pm also shooting within town, but loses them the game if pm chose to shoot them. i'm pretty sure it's a nash equilibrium - the completely optimal play is to defect and shoot the other cannibal.

Scum can't shoot PM. They can't. If scum shoot PM they remove the deaths they need for lock. Defecting and shooting PM is something that is wishful thinking.

you're trying to tell me here that defecting in the prisoner's dilemna isn't the optimal choice, but it seriously just can't be denied. i'm pretty sure you understand this and just have to lie in order for scum to win the game here.

scum and the serial killer have to play prisoner's dilemna going into tonight - try to shoot within town and they run the risk of getting shot themselves - defecting is the better choice. in fact, even if they both shoot within town, the last remaining townie can just force a draw. do you get it? scum are literally in a

no-win

scenario.

[northsidegal]

by the way, all of 937 isn't even considering the roleblocker factoring into any of it.

why didn't you factor in the roleblocker in 936, but you did when going through the possibilites of a serial killer lynch? that's disingenuous.

I didn't include it because
A) if Fitz is the roleblocker and I am lynched we lose.
Both scum shoot fitz we all lose.
B) if Fitz is not the roleblocker we lose by outing our roleblocker

So in that scenario lynching me is just auto loss. Fitz can't stop both PM and all the scum.

Right now fmpov it is just insta loss and I am voting the one thing that might let us win.

hmm... not really sure this makes sense.

[northsidegal]

Town cannot eliminate the threats so we lose.

It isn't a hard concept I just have accepted that either A) we lynch PM and maybe win
Or B) we just lose with any other lynch.

you keep pushing this because it's the only way you (as scum) can win. anyone reading this with a town win condition should stop and listen to me -

town has this game won

, as long as we lynch scum and not pm today.

[northsidegal]

If Fitz is town, Fitz believes he has a hard guilty incorrectly on me.

This means Fitz roleblocks me. Town loses as the kill(s) go through.

If Fitz is not the roleblocker then the roleblocker has to block correctly and knows Fitz is scum and has to pick between Fitz and the other scum and wifom it.

why are you assuming that the not fitz roleblocker has to decide between the wifom but fitz as the roleblocker would for sure choose you instead of who he believes the partner to be?

[northsidegal]

No.

Most mafia sites make it a forced town loss to prevent the draw scenario.

i just checked the wiki for the donner party setup - the win conditions for mafia and the serial killer both explicitly exclude the possibility of a joint victory. what i said still stands.

[northsidegal]

anyone reading this please unvote and/or don't vote just for a bit

- i'm entirely confident that we have this one won, but i'd still like to hear from you all.

[northsidegal]

guys, i'm absolutely positive that town have this game won. i can explain more in-depth later if you're not still convinced but i'm positive here. i also just received mod-confirmation that what i said about the win conditions was correct and that everyone loses if going into the night with 1 maf/ 1 sk.

[northsidegal]

@NSG...why are you more confident in Math as scum than anyone else?

seeing his reaction to your roleblocker claim really made it click for me, and on review i should really trust porkens' read. i always like to look beyond what people are saying and look at

why

they're saying what they're saying, and looking at that makes math the scummiest person in the game right now. every idea math has proposed would have been or would be bad for town: the push against porkens' claim, saying a50 was the vig, trying to get people to vote pm today. it's all been scum motivated.

i'll respond to more in a second.

[northsidegal]

okay, i'm just gonna start talking because if i start worrying too much about being concise or formatting then i'll never post anything.

it's certainly a possibility that both scum and the sk shot porkens and the roleblock isn't necessarily a guilty. what

is

a guilty for me, though, was math's reaction. i feel like a townie in this situation would have pushed that point a lot; as it was, this was math's reaction:

PM Fitz assemblr boom done:

Wrong. I'm the roleblocker.

I blocked Goedel N1 and you (MB) N2.

You're scum

Wrong I am Town and Not Mafia already crumbed assembler scum. Try harder.

SK by setup has one shot night proof.

D'oh. Correct.

Hi probTown.

Got a read wall?

amTown
NSG
Porkens
Not_Mafia
Math
Goedel/PM/Assembler

Porkens could be sk or scum that hit vig and stole role but doubtful as he'll probably be sorted tonight if legit.

Really think 2 scum and sk are in bottom 4 listed. Unless fingers crossed one of the nks hit scum.

Wrong FYI Fitz isn't the roleblocker or he'd have blocked assemblr or PM.

...

This is bullshit.

I am Town Fitz is scum.

We should lynch claimed scum today.

This isn't hard.

Like mafia 101
Never trust a fucking guilty in lylo because it is fucking fake.

trying to attack your credibility, desperately trying to get the lynch in that we know wins scum the game. math doesn't seem to care about clearing up a misconception, all he cares about is getting the lynch through, any way possible. town in this situation would want to sort things out - i don't see that anywhere.

wow, i started this post with still some suspicion that i could be wrong on math scum and i'm ending it absolutely confident that i'm right.

[northsidegal]

i'm going to take this pagetop to reiterate that as long as we lynch scum today (and not pm), we should have this game won.

the mafia and the serial killer are forced into a prisoner's dilemna scenario - each either shoots town or shoots the other. the one who chooses to defect and shoot the other is the only one who survives and has a chance at winning the game - their only choice really is to shoot the other cannibal, otherwise they run the risk of dying themselves for a guaranteed loss.

even if both choose to defect, neither still wins - the townie left in the 1/1/1 situation should let the day end in a no-lynch, where again both are forced to shoot each other during the night. (if scum, for whatever reason, chose to shoot the townie, that would be conceding the game to the other scum who chose to shoot them.)

we have this game won, i'm sure of it, and i actually really love how it's all worked out. we were in a pretty bad spot coming into today and even without any cannibal flips, having lynched town two days in a row and with our dietician dead, we can still pull it off.

[northsidegal]

VOTE: math

eagerly awaiting other people's comments on this.

we're going to need everyone alive who isn't mafia to vote on this - i need everyone to understand and be okay with it.

[northsidegal]

lol I have been AT WORK.

There is no misconception to clear up you are just wrong there is no dilemma.

Scum will never in any world shoot the SK period.

i never criticized you anywhere for your activity.

what do you call fitz's statement that he blocked you and you're scum, then? i mean, if you were actually a vt who got blocked, why didn't you push that point more?

if scum don't shoot the serial killer they are guaranteed to lose - i'm not sure why you keep pushing this point. even more, what do you suggest as our alternative? like, it's all but confirmed that we have 2 scum still alive - trying to fit the nightkills such that there's only one scum alive now leads to nonsensical conclusions.

[northsidegal]

You need SO MUCH ROPE

also, i usually don't like it when people say this about themselves, but i'm obvious town right now. if we lynch pm and two scum are alive (a certainty), then town loses. why would i make that point clear instead of just pushing for the serial killers lynch, like you've been doing?

by the way, i'm hesitating a bit before voting pm. i think it's safe to assume now that pm is the serial killer, but let's say we lynch him today. if we're in the unfortunate scenario where 2 scum are still alive, that puts us at 3/2/1 for today. lynching to go into the night with 3/2 ends up losing us the game. if the dietician is still alive then i think we need results outed.

why do i try to get pm to reveal more information for us before his lynch if i'm scum? if i'm scum i win the game just by lynching him.

by the way, pmysterious - you should really just claim and tell us who you've killed and what their alignment / roles were. it's your only chance at winning this game - lie and you're lynched anyways, tell the truth and we may end up lynching scum instead of you today.

what's your case on me? i'm not the one pushing the lynch that loses town the game.

[northsidegal]

north and assembler are scum together and not even trying to hide it

i have three possibilities for the scumteam right now, in order of confidence:
math/assemble
math/nm
asssemble/nm

assemble's willingness to go along in 977 gave me serious pause but i'm still confident in this lynch.

anything else to say?

[northsidegal]

i believe you.

[northsidegal]

Because you're his partner

why would i do any of the things that i've mentioned as scum?

even if you believe that i'm trying to get a mislynch on math to win the game -

even if you believe that

- scum still don't win unless pm also shoots a townie. if i was scum i'd be trying to get the serial killer lynched, instantly winning the game for scum (just like math is doing).

[northsidegal]

This is a lie. You said I'm not clearing up the misconception (again I reiterate there isn't one). I hadn't posted since I had gone to work. This means this "misconception" I hadn't have addressed had to have occurred when I wasn't posting as it sure as hell wasn't brought up when I was.

the "misconception" i was referring to was fitz's "guilty" on you due to the roleblock. that wasn't anything new, that was something you had a chance to respond to. what i'm saying is that you didn't take your chance when you had it. if you think that i'm accusing you for not responding when you didn't have the chance to, you're misinterpreting what i'm saying - that's just a fact.

If scum don't shoot the serial killer they are guaranteed the win. Like this is obvious. I already explained it. I'm not going around in circles with you on this when you're absolutely stuck in your ways.

you're just flat out wrong here - let's say scum shoot town and the serial killer shoots scum. how are scum "guaranteed the win" in that situation? i bet your response to this will be along the lines of "the serial killer wouldn't shoot scum". you can't make conclusive statements like this while disregarding the scenarios that disprove you.

Trying to fit the night kills with one scum dead works IF Porkens is a liar which scum wouldn't CC as that is stupid.

I'm telling you both mafia and the SK shot Porkens. When I flip town because of the "guilty" this will become clear.

why would porkens lie? like i said, believing that only one scum is alive requires believing nonsensical realities. it doesn't make sense.

[northsidegal]

why does your play speak for itself, both yesterday and tomorrow?

take all the time you need to respond, we have 10 days.

[northsidegal]

i'd shoot assemble instead, but it's up to you.

[northsidegal]

reminder - if pm is dead and the game is still going then the last scum is still alive.

if you're a townie and you're confident that you're in a 1/1/1 situation then vote for no-lynch.

[northsidegal]

also no-lynch in

any

situation with four people alive.

[northsidegal]

good game and well played everyone! thanks to comm for modding!

It was almost payback for the last time we were a scum team together, I think.

hey, wait a minute - you're right. isn't this the team from the chosen game?