TBD Mafia 2 [game over]

[Llamarble]

Hi
Obviously we aren't lynching me today. Me being me and all.

First pass
TOWN
Llamarble

Not_Mafia
Mulch
Chesskid
Chickadee
Mario

Vecna
Mastina
Snarky
Vax
Whymafia

TROLL
Alphinaud
Srceenplay


DISAPPOINTING
Dreamerz
Dunkerdoodles
Ginngie
Toby

Eddie
Slysly

randomidget
Bulbazak (+ Desp?)
Actiondan - scum! Although that's my second impression.
SCUM

[Llamarble]

Second pass and vote later this evening. Although the bulba and Desp wagons seem fine.
Oh there isn't a desp wagon? But everyone thinks Desp is scum. Interesting. Maybe there was one in the past or something.

[Llamarble]

I am!
I don't know if my talent will shine through here though. We'll see.
I ISO'd everybody

[Llamarble]

VOTE: Llamarble

Llamarble has confirmed (but not posted in the thread yet), so

day 1 will end in (expired on 2017-09-23 10:00:00)

I'd vote Llamarble if I wasn't already doing so.

...Twice.

The idea is I didn't check in before reading, so I'm scum who opted out of the easiest chance to start manipulating people toward the belief that I'm town?
Tell me how your thoughts flow from any direction other than "maybe people will think I find him scummy for this and find my vote acceptable"
I'm a little curious whether you're scum who doesn't fully understand what I am / lacks the proper terror and thinks trying to complete a day 1 deadline lynch on me could work?

I wish there weren't so many disappointments. This game may require Real Effort.

[Llamarble]

Lycan drops a wall probably meant for GD. Eddie asks about it, doesn't seem to get a satisfying answer, and possibly drops it. What did you get out of that exchange, Eddie?

Vecna receives some townpoints for the "tell me what you nominated for the name of the scumteam" crusade

Mulch claim chain makes mulch seem town. Vecna says scummulch can do this though. Meh.

Bulba "my role is confusing" at least doesn't count against him? For primary scumteam anyway.

Feeling less disappointed about Dreamerz and more town.

Not a fan of votes on mulch for roleclaim lying. Specifically Srceen will need to vote for something non-asinine at some point. I guess their bulbavote is okay.

683 from bulbazak - I won't go as far as to put him in the town pile, but we are probably lynching elsewhere today, if we can find something better...

Lycanfire was obviously town, by the way. So ???

726 from bulba is pretty bad. "Toby is town (for a lame speculative reason) but you can vig him if you want"
Bulba can you explain
A: why you think Toby's role strangeness is sufficient for him being a bad lynch
B: Why, if he is a bad lynch, vigging him (which has the same effect as a lynch) would be okay?

Lycan "Toby isn't Ginngie but is harmless" was not role information.

Bulbazak v dreamer v Lycan wasn't as interesting as hoped. Dreamer comes off town at least.

Why is Bulba defending Eddie from chesskid. Eddie is clearly one of the best lynch options at this time. "wait until day 2" is yucky here.
Chesskid has joined Dreamer to form the Army of Sanity and Justice.

Reread Vax. Don't think they're today's lynch.
Slysly votes seem good (completely disagree with Mastin post). I'll revisit them soon.

Withdrawing some credit from Vecnacrusade. Could've been cooked up by scum easily enough. Needs to do something else. Did they?

Mario is very meh. A lynch candidate.

Every time I'm considering not pushing Eddie out of the airlock he goes and does something like 1142

I don't have any lynches I am satisfied with yet, but at least I know what has happened in this game now.

[Llamarble]

This list LITERALLY just looks like you roughly sorted people by post-count........And seems like the most super-ficial reads ive seen in quite some time.

Yes, higher activity gives me a townier first impression of most players.
How can you determine superficiality when I haven't explained any thoughts yet? And why would superficiality of initial reads make me not town anyway???
I need to load more or less the whole game into my mind in order to try and solve it. This takes time. I hope this game doesn't turn out to be completely crazy rolewise or I'm gonna feel sad for putting in so much effort.

[Llamarble]

Hello. You said u was scum and put me in the bottom of your pile of dissapointments, please expand on that.

Oh, on the spectrum from town to scum, with a couple globs in the middle for particularly empty reads, you were at the scum end.
Primarily for "nothing in this ISO is difficult to fake" + lack of apparent townwin-effort reasons.
Not sure I even still feel that way though.

I'll acknowledge feather-ruffle-avoidance as an actual thing scum do a bit more often than town.
I don't think I've made any particularly grand effort not to be annoying though.

[Llamarble]

VOTE: ActionDan, but if I had to give you a reason it'd be...well, you know how normally, I say "I'd hate to call it gut because that implies it's ONLY gut", in that I'll get a read which is stronger than gut but I call it gut for lack of a better term?

...This is the inverse. Where I'd hate to call it gut because that implies it's of a strength worthy of being called gut.

Is scum mastina able to fake this introspection? I think no? Although if the "normally" construction is a deep pattern for them I guess it's believable as a variant.

[Llamarble]

llama, scum getting a double vote yond is factious in LYLO is peradventure THE TOP THING ev'r I would sayeth is NOT going to befall in a game nay matter how crazy the game is

Don't really agree with this, but I wasn't planning to lynch Mastin anyway so ok

[Llamarble]

Alright, D7 can remain on Team Justice.
At some point I'll examine the extent to which he has used insults / annoyance at town quality as scum.

I can't remember seeing a scum DV, but if you wanted to use one, a game with possibly many vigs seems like a good place to put it.

[Llamarble]

Mario might be a genuinely good lynch. 1586-87 do give some pause (Yes, Snarky's scumhunting shows questionable motivation / rolefocus and I like thought-updates, but "this doesn't look the way I wanted it to" isn't as townie), so not toooo much.

D7 does seem to be good at playing scum. That's unfortunate

[Llamarble]

VOTE: Mario

[Llamarble]

Bulbazak where does your mysterious Mario townread come from? It seems like all the sketchy people have sketchy interactions with Mario, and this makes me happy.

Acceptable votes at the moment:

EddieFenix
Bulbazak
MarioMcSquirrelface

You're gonna need to explain why you have this "comprehensive" list. It's really flimsy. Bulb is doing what I expect him to do as town, so I have good vibes that he's town, I'm currently taking time to ask questions so I can sort. And Mario? Wut? Why?

I don't agree with all his reads tho. Like I think bulb is town and Mario is town (weaker read), and dunker bird is not town for what has been posted at the least. I want to check out Eddie once more because it did ping me though earlier

Yay more questionable Mario interactions. Desp and Snarky could each work with Mario too, in different bussy ways.

Just want to say up front as well, thank you to people for not spamming the shit out of the thread for the last 2 days and making it to where when I come back to the thread, the catch up is manageable and not, "jesus tap dancing christ, why!!!!!". I've been busy af. So, y'all are much appreciated. Also, Bulb, I'll trust you.

Vote Lycanfire

I'm a bit curious about this relationship. Is this "I'll trust you" a towntell from Eddie? Unsure.

Won't respond to "why these people are scum" and I take every argument you throw in my direction and throw it to the floor because flimsy logic as well as lying.

Eh I guess I could see this from either version of Eddie.

[Llamarble]

VOTE: Mario

all you have done so far is towncase me

I also voted you! Don't forget that <3
If you actually aren't scum I might need your help with the whole not mislynching you thing, deadline coming up and no better ideas yet and all.

Desp sure is lurky-sketchy.

[Llamarble]

Whoah. Vecnascum? Vecnascum!
Dunno about making that happen in the next day and change but for after my usual N1 death etc.

[Llamarble]

Purely from memory; may not be perfect...
TOWN
Llamarble

Not_Mafia
Chesskid
Dunker
Chickadee
Mastina
Mulch
Dreamer

Vax??
Srceen??
Alisae???
TBD???
Dan?
Eddie?
Random??
Slysly?

Snarky
Desp
Vecna
Mario

[Llamarble]

Bulba lives in the ? pile but at the higher end with Vax btw

[Llamarble]

Bulbazak where does your mysterious Mario townread come from?

This feels similar to the town Mario I've played with in the past. But specifically, I thought his early game PR mistake and fix were indicative of a town thought process coming from Mario, and I think how he answered Mulch's "are you town?" question was not scum-indicative. He's either trolling town there or a third party, but I don't think he gives that answer as scum.

Mm, I can swallow those things from scum more easily than I can stuff in the other ISOs in this game. Will grant that a "No." answer is a little more probable from town.

[Llamarble]

votecount 1.10

6 players voting for Bulbazak (drealmerz7, Lycanfire, Not_Mafia, Srceenplay, Chickadee, chesskid3)
5 players voting for Lycanfire (EddieFenix, Desperado, mastina, mastina, MarioManiac4)
3 players voting for Srceenplay (Bulbazak, ActionDan, Vaxkiller)
2 players voting for Toby Determined (SnarkySnowman, SlySly)
1 player voting for SlySly (randomidget)
1 player voting for Serious Vote (Toby Determined)
1 player voting for ActionDan (Mulch)
1 player voting for Vaxkiller (Dunkerdoodles)

1 player not voting (Vecna)

with 21 votes, it takes 11 to lynch.

day 1 will end 60 hours after Llamarble picks up their role PM.

votecount 1.09

9 players voting for Lycanfire (Vaxkiller, Bulbazak, EddieFenix, Desperado, Vecna, mastina, mastina, MarioManiac4, Dunkerdoodles)
4 players voting for SlySly (Mulch, randomidget, ActionDan, chesskid3)
5 players voting for Bulbazak (drealmerz7, Lycanfire, Not_Mafia, Srceenplay, Chickadee)
2 players voting for Toby Determined (SnarkySnowman, SlySly)
1 player voting for Serious Vote (Toby Determined)

0 players not voting

with 21 votes, it takes 11 to lynch.

day 1 will end after a replacement is found for Lycanfire.

mod note: Lycanfire is being replaced.

mod note, re post 1232: you should not assume that there is any relationship between whether a given user is in this game and whether that user has any effect on the game.

votecount 1.08

6 players voting for Lycanfire (Vaxkiller, Bulbazak, EddieFenix, Desperado, Vecna, MarioManiac4)
5 players voting for Bulbazak (drealmerz7, Lycanfire, Not_Mafia, Srceenplay, Chickadee)
5 players voting for SlySly (Mulch, Dunkerdoodles, randomidget, ActionDan, chesskid3)
2 players voting for Vecna (mastina, mastina)
2 players voting for Toby Determined (SnarkySnowman, SlySly)
1 player voting for Serious Vote (Toby Determined)

0 players not voting

with 21 votes, it takes 11 to lynch.

day 1 will end in (expired on 2017-09-19 19:30:00).

mod note: Lycanfire has been prodded.

mod note: players can receive copies of their questionnaire responses by PMing me.

votecount 1.03

4 players voting for Mulch (WhyMafia, SnarkySnowman, Vaxkiller, Srceenplay)
3 players voting for Lycanfire (ActionDan, MarioManiac4, Not_Mafia)
2 players voting for Srceenplay (Mulch, Dunkerdoodles)
1 player voting for Toby Determined (Lycanfire)
1 player voting for (Toby Determined)

1 player voting for no lynch (drealmerz7)

8 players not voting (randomidget, Chickadee, Desperado, SlySly, acidphoenix, EddieFenix, Bulbazak, Vecna)

with 21 votes, it takes 11 to lynch.

day 1 will end in (expired on 2017-09-19 19:30:00).

note: votecount 1.02 was riddled with errors because I made it like an hour before going to bed and I was really tired. whoops!

Am a little disappointed that Bulba / My wagons have been the main ones all day except for the early LOLOLMULCHFAKECLAIM wagon and I suppose the (pretty good, but Dan or Random could account for the 1 scum on a wagon on a townie so inconclusive) Slysly one
If we can get a super active tonight / tomorrow from everyone we can get somewhere useful hopefully.
Bulba wagon sure had awesome people on it... It's pretty suspicious that it looks possibly wholly devoid of scum? Like, mayyybe Src or D7 or something but honestly I would not be at all surprised if that is 6 townies voting for a player without a single scum helping them. I guess I need to read Bulba more!!

[Llamarble]

This squirming is great.

Still Bulba's towniest post for me? I get the feeling it may be within his scumrange though.
"I'll read it later" on Desp and on Eddie while more or less protecting them for today I find very viable from Bulbascum. Also his read on Mario has the flavor of "I know he is town because I am scum so it is easy to townread him." So maybe Bulbascum without Marioscum??

With Dreal? Can't argue that. But it's all been explained why I've done so. When I was pushing Dreal, I felt that he was trying to look for something to latch onto in order to argue himself out of a hole. That's why I didn't tell him why I was scumreading him, because I didn't want to give him a smokescreen to hide in. He didn't ask me "Why are you scumreading me?" or "Explain your vote.", rather he asked me to give him a case, as if I had an A to B case at that point in the game. I saw a player who was looking for weaknesses he could exploit to discredit my push, and I didn't want to give him an inch. As for Lycan, I had been upfront with Eddie that I wasn't going to reveal my reasons for voting him at that time, and I had just recently told Mastina that I wanted her votes on Lycan to "light a fire under him". Dreal asking for a case soon after was redundant and absurd. That's why I asked if he was still scumreading Lycan and why. For someone who professed to have a strong scumread there, he sure seemed to be trying to do anything but vote there.

Dreal can be best described as a player who thinks too highly of himself, yet he keeps forgetting to ask the right questions or observe what is really going on around him. He's also very active and does wield some degree of influence in this game, although I'm skeptical about how long that will last. It's that influence that I think scum will start to latch onto, and they're going to start using him as a puppet soon, if it hasn't started to happen already.

And hey, Screen's vote makes me think I may have stumbled onto something with Lycan and we have a legit counter situation happening right now. We're going to get a lot of information out of these wagons.

Hmm, first paragraph can easily be a true story from either alignment, especially this early on. "Skeptical how long influence will last" is interesting though.

[Llamarble]

llama, thoughts on 2 scumteams?
*watches bulba burst at seems*

As in, multiple scum factions?
I am not factoring that in yet and I don't see much reason to.

[Llamarble]

Llamurble reading into my reaction the way he did once again shows no actual interest in reading into a situation and genuinely trying to read allignment. Him going from a townread on me after first readthrough, purely trying to find reasons to scumread me after seeing im the one that continues to be onto him (after he even admitted my reasoning for doing so is totally valid) makes me totally unwilling to lynch anywhere else today.

Ooh, "He even admitted X" is one of my favorite scum-constructions!
I said that avoiding ruffling feathers was a scumtell. Tell me more about all the feathers I'm not ruffling. Tell me more about how superficial my reads are...
You said lack of depth to reads is scummy, but in the 1 day I've been in this game I've already consumed the entire thread multiple different ways, even looked for supplemental information in other games trying to figure this out. I've pointed out posts that make me doubt the overall impressions I get of people so I can test those impressions and compare against other games.
1 day of play, and I'm already obvtown.
And yeah, once I'm satisfied that I understand this game well enough to lead the town, you'll see me get persuasive and actually explain things in such a way that others can see the game from my perspective and reach the same conclusions.
My scumgame, since Mastin asked, has always rested on the fact that sometimes I lurk as town (obligations and all), and then I kill everyone I can't just shout down and do 1v1 fights (because those are literally the easiest thing for scum to do, choosing a single target and constructing logical arguments why others should lynch them, complete with that delicious "He even admitted") until endgame. I am good at finding the path to victory. The thing I do not excel at as scum is exactly what I've spent the last day doing - the studying-storm of becoming one with the game to solve it.

[Llamarble]

I've noticed in my own (and others' but most of my scumtells are differences I notice between my own scum / town games) play that scum gravitate toward this phrasing more often.
I believe the reason for this is scum feel a greater need to concretely justify themselves to others whereas town know that their own righteousness will clear them eventually.
So scum go for arguments like "Behold the inconsistency or error this player made!" or better yet "they :admitted: to this scummy thing!" because that even claims their target shouldn't disapprove of them.
Sorry if I haven't fully expressed the idea, but I think it's an important one. I guess to summarize, scum want their reasoning to be ironclad and look really good; town want their reasoning to be right.

[Llamarble]

btw Llama do you anything about why Lycan had the stance they had on Toby

Not really, it looks like they were interested in Toby maybe because they're an unusual entity, so they focused on them and tried to work with them and stuff?

[Llamarble]

So we have about a day. I think Mario is still a good choice. Not a slam dunk, but nobody is yet, at least for me.
He simply hasn't put The Work into scumhunting.
The highest engagement posts are replies when others find him suspicious and substitutions of setup-thoughts (toby prob not town for setup) for reads, which are often when scum will engage.
Looking at the game holistically, he fits well as scum with several other players.
There is definitely a lazytown / relaxed reading that also works for his posts though.
This is not a perfect lynch. Mario is lynchbait (he gets lynched a lot as town, which makes me doubt this but also makes him a significant liability in a long game).
Hopefully he is scum lynchbait this time.

I will look at Bulba again since he's probably the most viable alternative for today. Also there is a promising "bulbascum knows Mario is town" explanation for their interaction

At this point I've already towned hard enough that I have trouble believing anyone genuinely thinks I'm scum. It's not like Lycan was even scummy so I'm not sure why I had votes to begin with, or why the votes have been so bizarrely sticky - don't people know an active day 1 with a lot of wagons creates town wins?? And when all the sketchy people votepark someone and then try to push it through at deadline over a very active pro-town replacement, doubling down instead of considering doubts (compare my expression of my doubts and not overselling reads that don't deserve it), is that seriously a lynch you want to be on? I'll probably get nightkilled anyway.

EVERYONE SHOULD PLACE A VOTE FOR SOMEONE WHO COULD ACTUALLY GET LYNCHED WITH THEIR NEXT POST (and check in before deadline to assure a majority is reached on someone)

[Llamarble]

For now, lets discuss your progression on your read on me, since you want me to talk about the depth of your reads. Explain the progression how you went from a townread to having it flipped straight away. And do it without stuff that you attacked later on (like my statement that you attacked in this post), but in the proper linear time-path.

And yes, you do continue to thread lightly without ruffling any feathers. You have suddenly gotten a townread on every vocal and high quality player, while scumreading the one player actively attacking you and 3 lurkers.

Townreading every vocal and high quality player??? You Dan Bulba Eddie. Desp is a good player, if currently quiet. More like townreading the pro-town players who have demonstrated good reason to believe they are town.
Mastin has 2 votes on me and contributed just as much to attacking me as you have. But I think he's town.
How about a little effort toward making sense, at least. Oh wait that went out the window with "Let's lynch the player who usually wins the game for town before he gets a chance to become too obviously town and destroy the scumteam, because that would be some horrible disaster"

[Llamarble]

If you're curious about when I started scumreading you

Whoah. Vecnascum? Vecnascum!
Dunno about making that happen in the next day and change but for after my usual N1 death etc.

Is what an epiphany sounds like. I reread your iso because of your post and I was reading a bunch of different things at the time, and I got excited because your posting actually works really well from scum!

[Llamarble]

No you tacked on ChessKid's freakout over my questioning the survivor thing lol

?? Where does this idea even come from hahaha
Did I say I cared about your Survivor searching? No. No I did not.
I mean sure survivor stuff is free content (much like your "what's the scumteam name" stuff) and doesn't exactly make me worry about you flipping town, but I reread you from the beginning because I was looking at various "how does Mario fit into this thread" things and then I saw a post from you and was like "let's reread Vecna." and then "Wow, this might actually really be scum!"
If you want progression from town to scum, I did give you some credit for your initial "what's the scumteam called" stuff, then didn't like that so much as I got further, and then I performed the additional pass through your ISO I just mentioned and that time through it really clicked for me matching scum posting patterns and styles.

[Llamarble]

Subtly twisting? You just said my logic for scumreading you was something I barely took interest in.
You've called my reads superficial having little idea what's behind them, aside from the small windows I have offered into my thoughts which you've pretty much pretended don't exist.

I don't like explaining myself in detail until I've consumed the game sufficiently and reached reads where I have a real belief people should be following me.
Sometimes during this phase I'll say things that I feel are just interesting like the "You admitted" scumtell or point out posts that are on my mind.
My words are meant to look good and distract? I've spent the time since I replaced in reading and rereading the thread, sharing only glimpses of what I'm looking into.
But sure, all my effort is in "words meant to look good and distract" despite the fact that I am obviously studying and working through this game. Distract from what, anyway?

[Llamarble]

I didn't expect a wagon to form. I got excited about the possibility of you being scum. The timing / you being topical may have influenced me toward looking at your posts, but it didn't have any real bearing on my read.
I intend to look into the matter further today but mostly on D2.
Maybe my read on you will flip around completely, who knows.
I don't get stuck on my reads, I whirl through the game again and again putting the puzzle together different ways until I finally feel like it all fits.
Even then I'll keep questioning and sometimes turn lynches around at the last moment, especially D1, but I replaced in a bit late for that.

[Llamarble]

P. edit:
1. Desp has never not been a scumread for me? If you are town, please at least fact-check a little more.
2. I expect people who are observing to say "okay, llama is reading the game." I figured I wouldn't be in any danger D1 simply for reputation reasons. You talked about leaving Eddie alive until D2 to get a better read, I'm like that (simply because I haven't been here enough of D1 to do my full process) except I also have a high probability of either getting killed N1 or doing drastic damage to the scumteam. Lynching me D1 just isn't something that makes sense (especially when I'm doing my hurricane llama town thing!), and I'm a little curious if half the people voting me aren't thinking "wheee this is my big chance to lynch llamarble D1" or something.
3. I'm pretty sure I reciprocate votes / suspicion (OMGUS) at least as much as town as I do as scum. I have trouble believing people can honestly find my play scummy. In terms of attacking people who find me scummy I've also made very little effort not to antagonize people this game, which probably counts in my favor.

That would apply more to Lycan/Marble than it would to me. My wagon's broken up and come back together multiple times. The Lycan wagon has been constant, but has constantly stalled. It's the difference between fickleness and actual resistance.

If we want to talk about resistance to wagons

votecount 1.09

9 players voting for Lycanfire (Vaxkiller, Bulbazak, EddieFenix, Desperado, Vecna, mastina, mastina, MarioManiac4, Dunkerdoodles)
4 players voting for SlySly (Mulch, randomidget, ActionDan, chesskid3)
5 players voting for Bulbazak (drealmerz7, Lycanfire, Not_Mafia, Srceenplay, Chickadee)
2 players voting for Toby Determined (SnarkySnowman, SlySly)
1 player voting for Serious Vote (Toby Determined)

0 players not voting

with 21 votes, it takes 11 to lynch.

day 1 will end after a replacement is found for Lycanfire.

mod note: Lycanfire is being replaced.

mod note, re post 1232: you should not assume that there is any relationship between whether a given user is in this game and whether that user has any effect on the game.

First off, Lycan's wagon got considerably larger than Bulba's ever did.
Second, Lycan's wagon is packed with sketchies of various flavors.
Bulba's wagon was Not_Mafia (confirmed town) Me (confirmed town) Dreamers + Chickadee + later Chesskid (probable towns) and Screen. Either Bulba or Screen is probably scum, just from that.
If Bulba's town, scums probably live in Snarky (or slysly) Screen (some of Mario Vecna Desp Eddie) to distribute
But yeah, if there's one big black mark against bulba it's that his wagon has been a Wagon of Justice and Townies throughout its lifespan, getting no love from the sketchier players in the game.
"scum don't want to be on it" is a better explanation than "lolol I am a hard player to wagon" in this case

[Llamarble]

And no, I am indeed not buying that you suddenly just decided to browse my iso and came to the conclusion that it must be scum. And definately not when you do it in such a manner where it is far more likely that you wanted to make your attacker look bad, by throwing a lot of hypotheticals about behaviour that scum is more likely to do show. The timing and usefullness from a scum-pov is just too damn convenient, with chesskid attacking me which could be a great distraction from the pressure on you.

Re ISO browsing: I mean, I did. I perused the posts and got excited visualizing scum writing them and having that make sense. I don't think I'd lie about how that post came about even if I were scum.
I think as scum I'd have looked into befriending you and then killing you or something. I don't see much scum-benefit to getting in a fight with someone who isn't a real lynch possibility for the day.

[Llamarble]

P. edit:
Lycan's wagon stalled at 9 because... He replaced out. He was probably going to die, especially considering how even with how active I have been the slot is still at risk.
Maybe people townread him and his wagon built slowly because, you know, his posting was actually rather town and scum parked on it and votes do have gravitational pull on other votes but that does work slowly. He took a pretty independent look into the day's events, found Vax interested him, and because town actually care whether anything comes of their beliefs he tried to push other people onto Vax / prevent Toby from being a distraction. He even took a town "I don't care what other people think and I'm entitled to disrespect people for I am Righteous" type of attitude.

VOTE: Bulbazak
I can't escape the feeling that the way today's voting has worked points to Bulbascum.

[Llamarble]

I mean, for survival reasons I am functionally voting Mario and Bulba right now.
I don't really believe in a flashwagon on someone else. Mayyyybe on Slysly who may have been playing a "Bulba and Lycan are town I'mma hang out on other wagons while one of them gets lynched" game.
Certainly the fakeability is there for Slysly's posting. If it had been "I don't think Lycan or Bulba are town; let's try hard to start something else" I'd have been happier about that.
I guess ActionDan had a similar post, and AD also voted screen later, thinking Bulbatown overall but disliking 953, which, yeah, was pretty bad.
Slysly vote is reasonable. Bulbatown -> Screenscum makes a lot of sense for reads + votes. So Dan is looking better.
Focusing on figuring out the path to manipulate votes to get the lynch you want early in the day instead of focusing on reading the game does not reflect well on Bulba at all.
I'd go so far as to say counting votes to identify which wagon can be made to work (especially so early) is very strongly in the Things Scum Do Considerably More Than Town category.
I hope people are around this evening to move votes as needed.

[Llamarble]

I guess my working hypotheses are
Non-Bulba:
Slysly + Screen + probably Mario + ?hardertoreadstrongplayers (Vecna / desp possible)
Bulbascum:
Bulba + Eddie + various possible

I leaned away from Bulba + Mario, I think because of Bulba acting like he :knew: Mario was town? That sounds right.

[Llamarble]

Can we like, not lynch me today? I really wanna figure this out.

[Llamarble]

Ah, I regard all the other players on Bulba's wagon, aside from you Screen, as very likely to be town.
So if he's town, that looks very bad for you.

And as for your reply Bulba, a copguilty doesn't always result in a scumflip; counterexamples do exist, but it sure increases the odds quite a bit.
As a townie, what do you care about the most? Identifying scum. Once you have a very solid read, you can think about how to get them lynched.
As a scumbag, what do you care about the most? Making sure that at the end of the day you or a teammate don't end up lynched.
The primary information scum are interested in is other people's reads (specifically how they will vote and how voting is likely to go).
Then they use the scum voting block, combined with the latent town on town violence they've identified, to make a mislynch happen.
I won't deny that having some awareness of where things are going is useful as town.
But for scum it is THE thing that they actually can think about and take interest in. The rest is just theater for them.

[Llamarble]

You're not wrong that scum would generally be more subtle about their use of that information.
Considering the wagon on Lycan seems to have had its roots in "let's just try to stack some votes together on someone, anyone, and maybe something good will happen" I'm feeling less surprised that it might stall after 9 votes and a replacement.
I take some issue with you voting me instead of trying harder to lynch other people if your feelings on my slot are pressure -> meh result while you believe Chickadee and Chesskid are scum.
But I see you did vote Screen, which as I've mentioned is a good vote if you are town.
If you and me really are both town, the Src - Slysly team starts to look good.

If people want to just hang around this evening, if we have a lot of people in the thread it's still possible to wagon somebody completely new with the power of deadline.

[Llamarble]

Chess has been pro-town today. He's a good player and so forth, but I think he's town.

I guess my list of valid lynches for today right now looks like (More ???s = more exploration required so probably leave to day 2)
Vecna?? (I want to reexamine with a cooler head. Good player requiring deeper analysis)
Desp?? (Not much content yet; good player)
Snarky? (haven't explored enough but sketchy)
Random? (haven't explored much but sketchy)
Srceen (makes a lot of sense if Bulba town)
Slysly (Makes sense either way, really, but the "scum staying off both wagons on townies" reading was really working for me)
Bulba (very town wagon is probably the best reason but considering the other big wagon was also on town, maybe scum wanted to lynch bulba tomorrow after Lycan??)
Mario (Simply hasn't done anything that convinces me otherwise + works with variety of teams)

[Llamarble]

My range as scum is that while there aren't many particular posts I'm incapable of producing, the thread bombardment of looking through everything over and over I don't think I've successfully faked.
Like the number of different possibilities I've considered and things I've gone back and forth on in under 48 hours in this game, I don't believe I can fake that.
I've gotten excited about things that might be the solution, that might bring clarity and then other things show up that contradict them and I admit to myself that I don't have it figured out yet move on to considering other possibilities.
Like Bulba you made a good counterargument to my reading of your 'this is where this wagon will go' post, and now I am looking at everything else again, trying to assemble a new picture that makes sense.
I dunno, I just don't see how people can think I'm scum here. Usually when I get like this, yeah, one or two people are tunneled on me but usually the town at large sees me for what I am, wearing my heart on my sleeve and trying to figure the game out.

Mario, when I read peoples' ISOs I usually see a lot of stuff that would be difficult for me, or for them to fake as scum.
So my reads have a tendency to initialize on whoever doesn't look too hard to fake is scummy (and yes, this does mean I tend to pursue lurky players D1, which usually works out because it makes them get active and do things and then we can reevaluate and maybe try another wagon and create a pro-town day 1)

[Llamarble]

Meow
I didn't get much out of reading Slysly through 3 times and comparing to other games.
Could be scum? Could be town?
I need a break. Back in a little bit.

[Llamarble]

I may have... another solution?

[Llamarble]

I'M FINALLY TOWNNNNN
I didn't really see myself surviving as a survivor.

[Llamarble]

I was pretty sure I couldn't make it to endgame alive as a survivor so I just played like a townie and planned to replace into a townish playerslot.
So full-effort reads.

Vax, I have moved to the slysly playerslot and obtained Sly's (Town!!) role and wincon.

VOTE: Bulbazak

I don't think I'll out my neighbor(s) for now.
1. Didn't want to be outed
2. Can still eat a scum NK for us while hidden
3. Were planning to work with town anyway
So it seems win-win.

[Llamarble]

I could choose when to do it (note Lycan didn't take the replacement opportunities he could have)
I did want to do it fast though because I didn't believe in my shelf-life.

Currently rereading with new info in mind but I still believe Bulba's wagon was super town.

[Llamarble]

Definitely not interested in lynching Vax today.
I can see Snarky's posting from scum. Could be the off-wagon scum.
I think Random is the best bet for scum on the Slysly wagon.

[Llamarble]

I'm slysly so I inherited the votes on slysly

[Llamarble]

I need to go to bed soon... Can we not no-lynch?

[Llamarble]

Ok, so Mario is the only person left from d1 who got significant votes who could still be scum.

oh, and really weird we didn't get a lynch yesterday with bulba being leading wagon and town, I mean if the flip is true I guess

Which, again, is why I said I really don't mind dying, because when things are this convoluted I am less enthused, which is why I didn't want above level 3 player-influence or lies to be in game at all, ugh. Though really it is better for the game if you don't kill me, we can just try and go by lynching an innocent result when I get one / not lynching the guiltees. If that wasn't obvious.

We're pretty behind, but if we stay focused and lynch correctly today we are still fine. Even if the first scum death isn't until D3 we have a chance to be heroes.
Morale / how engaged town is with the game plays a HUGE role in winning.

TOWN
Llamarble
Dunker
Chesskid
Mastin
Chickadee

ActionDan

More reading time required
Desp - I don't like how easily the vig shot was used. Vig shots are precious opportunities to be a hero. And Desp hasn't shown The Effort to find and eliminate scum. But Drealz' claim was very firm, Desp wasn't a Bulba fan, and scum dayvigs are pretty rare.
Dreal - Was still feeling very confident of Dreal-town coming into today. Claiming a guilty on town to direct a town kill onto town and then simply not backing down on it afterward makes me worry because it reminds me of my own scumgame.
Mario - I'm not sure I even like Mario for scum anymore. I hoped he would flip scum but I didn't have that "This is going to work" feeling I sometimes get.
Snarky - Posting works from scum. Just following role stuff and survivors without focus on directing the lynch onto true scum. But my reading right now is him following his own independent suspicion and he does at least comment on main wagons.
Random - "bulba is probably just town being obstinate." Was going to be in the lynch candidate pile but I saw an unapologetic-town line on latest reread.

???
TBD - At this point if TBD is a run of the mill scumbag they're doing a pretty great job making themself look like something else
Alisae - Same as TBD

Lynch Candidates
Screen - Unless scum stayed off Bulba's wagon entirely, which I don't really think they would do. Dreal is an alternative I guess.
Vecna - Need to reread. I've learned to trust my epiphany moments, but I did get doubts after. More reading.
Eddie - Classically scummy.

Really everyone is in the more reading time category.

VOTE: Zoe

[Llamarble]

I'll be more active once Hearthstone season ends (tomorrow night).

I was pretty sure I couldn't make it to endgame alive as a survivor so I just played like a townie and planned to replace into a townish playerslot.
So full-effort reads.

Vax, I have moved to the slysly playerslot and obtained Sly's (Town!!) role and wincon.

VOTE: Bulbazak

I don't think I'll out my neighbor(s) for now.
1. Didn't want to be outed
2. Can still eat a scum NK for us while hidden
3. Were planning to work with town anyway
So it seems win-win.

The thing that bugs me about this post is a few things
A. I feel like Llama would have definitely set up some kind of message to get across to his buddies what alignment he was.
B. This feels like just washing his hands of the fact he was a survivor. Like if he's scum I feel like he would let scum know who the survivors are and keep that information away from town because knowing who the survivors are helps PoE scum.


His Desperado thoughts on the post above me basicly a really easy way to justify a read there and its just going on with what's going on. It's reading the table and it doesn't feel natural.
Dreal - The read here also doesn't feel natural.
His Mario read just makes me feel like he has an alternative to go back to like "Oh, we can always just go back to this."

A. Huh, I didn't think of that.
B. I have no intention of letting us lynch them and while hidden they can eat a nightkill
Also, various sketchy people have shown a lot of interest in identifying the survivors, so outing them might simply be harmful in some way (neutral-recruiter powers? idk).
I have Vecna Alisae Snarky connected around this, I think?

Both Desp and Dreal are currently "need to reread." I'll give better explanations once I feel ready to lead (or think I've been particularly clever and want to share).

[Llamarble]

I have no interest in lynching dunker today. He has the bulbatown broken record towntell and has been generally forthright.
I think snarky has the best scumodds right now? Mario is still reading both ways.
VOTE: Snarky (both votes)
Mastin why do you have Snarky as town?
I don't think you should base reads on Zoe-Zelda but looking at the game in as many ways as possible is good.

[Llamarble]

specificly I want Llama ded right now but I can't have ded llamas sadisae

If you are secretly trying to keep me alive, bless you <3

I'll be really disappointed in myself if D7 is scum.
Mastin peddles too much nonsense for me to accept "reasons"
I think Vecna and Snarky are both scum. Possibly with Mastin!
I was very much not a fan of "lynch llamarble before he becomes too obviously town" from Vecna and Mastin together.
And if ever there were an antidote to a scum doublevoter in lylo, it would be making them hated. Sorta turns lylo into a race, but I wouldn't put that past a game with this many survivors.

Spoiler: Behold: Theatre

VOTE: slysly

VOTE: slysly

The more I stare at this, the more I realize that judging these wagons by whatever probable town/scum values sly is giving to the wagons' participants to determine some sort of composition metric makes no objective sense.

The rest of the iso is quote walls with barely anything tangible in them.

VOTE: SlySly

I'm ok with a Vax wagon. I will also join the Sly wagon.

Unvote

Vote: SlySly

woo new wagon
VOTE: slysly

Okay so like.
I haven't read the thread.
I haven't ready anyone's reasons for a SlySly read one way or another.
I haven't really read SlySly at all.
So I don't really have a read one way or another on SlySly.
Meaning that sure this wagon could be driven by town and be on scum.
But.

I'm pretty sure this wagon is objectively awful? Like. Every vote is worse than the last. Mulch's vote is probably good. randomidget's is probably okay. ActionDan's vote is bad, chesskid's vote is worse, Dunkerdoodle's vote is even worse. So if people wanna get me to vote SlySly. I gotta say. Right now I'm heavily inclined to disincline.

That being said

, regardless of SlySly's alignment and REGARDLESS of the wagon's composition (all town, largely scum, mostly town with one scum, etc.), I just have to bring this up:

I think SlySly just isn't looking at everything. I think that's lynch bait.

RED FLAG^.

sly is bait

Maybe flag?

6 players voting for Lycanfire (Vaxkiller, Bulbazak, EddieFenix, Desperado, Vecna, MarioManiac4)
5 players voting for Bulbazak (drealmerz7, Lycanfire, Not_Mafia, Srceenplay, Chickadee)
5 players voting for SlySly (Mulch, Dunkerdoodles, randomidget, ActionDan, chesskid3)
2 players voting for Vecna (mastina, mastina)
2 players voting for Toby Determined (SnarkySnowman, SlySly)
1 player voting for Serious Vote (Toby Determined)

So like. The SlySly wagon kinda sorta feels like it's a counter to Lycanfire. I'd be tempted to say it's a counter to Bulbazak if not for both Lycanfire and Chickadee's presence on Bulbazak.

But this is probably wildly off-base. I wouldn't put any stock into it without more research.

RE: 2228, it might seem a bit unfair, but to those who were Not Voting, they get counted as BOTH voting-Zelda and voting-Zoe for the purposes of the division.
Is-Zelda = A
Is-Zoe = B
Guessed-Zelda = C
Guessed-Zoe = D
Voted-Zoe = E
Voted-Zelda = F

TRIPLE COMBO STACK(s):

ACE: ActionDan, Vecna?, randomidget, chesskid3, Llamarble (+EddieFenix)
BDF: Dunkerdoodles
---
ACF: Desperado (+EddieFenix, ??Vecna??)
ADE: Screenplay
ADF: None that I can see. (So, nobody is a Zelda who guessed Zoe and voted Zelda.)
BCE: (+SnarkySnowman)
BCF: Chickadee, drealmerz7 (+SnarkySnowman)
BDE: MarioManiac4

Did I do my calculations correctly here?
Because I just gotta say. Regardless of scum distribution that ACE pile looks suspicious.

We know that it can't be an exact scumteam mirror since the only inverse-ACE is Dunkerdoodles.
A_Es are ActionDan/Vecna/randomidget/chesskid/Llamarble
B_Fs are Dunkerdoodles/Chickadee/drealmerz/SnarkySnowman.
If the scumteam split in two, this is the most likely way they did so.

AC_s are ActionDan/Vecna/randomidget/chesskid/Llamarble/Desperado/EddieFenix
BD_s are Dunkerdoodles/MarioManiac4. This even split isn't impossible, but is less likely. Were there a split featuring these two, it'd likely be part of a larger multi-split.

_CEs are ActionDan/Vecna/randomidget/chesskid/Llamarble/EddieFenix/SnarkySnowman
_DFs are Dunkerdoodles. This can't be an even split; if this is a split, then it is part of a larger multi-split.

I don't quite have the head to calculate multi-splits. (In which the scumteam actively chose to distribute themselves differently at different points: voting a certain way for Being, voting a certain different way for Guessing, and voting a third way for the votecount today.)
But this covers most of the basics. Scumteam this game is going to be 4-8 players, probably 4-6 more realistically. If the scumteam has four/six members and went for common distributions, then they can have:
-All eggs in ACE basket
-Even split in A_E/B_Fs
-Even split in AC_s/BD_s (requires 4-man scumteam AND both Dunkerdoodles/MarioManiac4 as scum; unlikely)
-One ACE, one BCF, one ACF, remainder distributed in BDF/ADE/BCE/BDE
-Two ACE, two BCF (+remainder distributed in ACF/ADE/BDE)

...Maybe others, but I can't think of all the common distributions.
This only covers the common distributions though. It's fully possible to do a random-distribution, i.e., the scum either didn't coordinate, coordinated only partially on this and not on all three steps, didn't have all scum follow the plan (hey it happens), or simply coordinated in such a way that there was no obvious pattern to be found.

Did I mention this post is currently useless? Because yeah it's pretty worthless right now but I have faith that this information can later down the line crack the scumteam wide open. We just need to get there first.

Srceenplay
randomidget
Not_Mafia
Chickadee
Desperado
SnarkySnowman
Llamarble
chesskid3
EddieFenix
Vecna
drealmerz7
MarioManiac4
mastina
Dunkerdoodles
ActionDan
Playerlist.

Srceenplay
randomidget
Chickadee
Desperado
Llamarble
chesskid3
EddieFenix
Vecna
MarioManiac4
Dunkerdoodles
ActionDan
Playerlist, minus the people I know/think to be town.

Desperado
Srceenplay
randomidget

Vecna
EddieFenix
Llamarble
ActionDan
MarioManiac4

Chickadee
chesskid3
Dunkerdoodles

Playerlist, minus the people I know/think to be town, separated into three categories none of which are town:
The top category is the category of "Nothing they've done has strongly made me think scum but nothing they've done has made me really think town, either". Basically null, with some ambivalence mixed in.

The middle category is the "mixed bag" category of "total ambivalence". It is the category of people who sometimes are town and sometimes are scum.

The bottom category is the "consistently scum" category, in that it's the closest I have to actual reads and they're scumreads.

Soyeah. This? This is not a fucking readslist.
This is me internally crying.

[Llamarble]

Sorry - Mastina not Mastin. I don't mean to disrespect you even if I think you may have a scum win condition.

[Llamarble]

It's really not difficult to understand.
If you want to stand on "I claimed a guilty on town and didn't retract it and that should be sufficient for everyone not to vote me" even I would want to vote for you.
Having a lame defense doesn't make D7 scum though and we should lynch elsewhere (Snarky).

Also apparently the heal on Alisae actually did something?
And in the name of having some kind of chance of town winning, can we get votes from all the slots that aren't.

Also on deeper examination Mastina's Zoe Zelda stuff doesn't even consider the most basic strange things.
"Analysis" without getting interested in and pursuing the avenues that might actually get you something alignment-indicative. That is Theater.
The post kind of reminds me of some buddy-network-graph thing I did as scum in white flag mafia when we scraped out a scum win because I was obvscum but did not have any plausible partners thanks to my buddy's gambit-vote to lynch me and got ruled town and we won. Though I think even that was not as content-free as Mastina's posts.
"Under the questionable assumption that scum coordinated on questionnaires, they could have arranged themselves in pretty much any way. This will be useful down the road!"
The odor of setting up connection-mislynches for later in the game is strong.
To actually get anything out of the Zoe Zelda votes and choices, look at the posts and mindsets behind them.
Personally I selected Zelda because I like the Legend of Zelda and Zelda was my first dog's name.
I guessed Zelda because Zelda is more interesting sounding than Zoe (partly because of the games) and me choosing it makes it more likely it would have the most.
I can't really remember why I voted Zoe - I think I took a quick look at the wagons and figured why vote to make myself lynchable, but I certainly don't remember caring much.

Players who voted to make themselves lynchable:
Mario - initially voted zelda, then switched to Zoe "even though own faction" because wanted to make game proceed.
Dunkerdoodles (switched from an earlier zelda vote, but after Zoe was hammered apparently) on grounds of "we don't know who is which so it doesn't matter"
Mastina - voted for both pools. Presumably did not care or had come up with the idea of people doing analysis later and wanted a non-incriminating stance. This is easily the worst vote, especially with Mastin coming in later and being the one to say "I think scum put lots of thought into this" after not performing any such examination while the Zoe / Zelda voting was actually taking place and affecting our lynch choices for today.

Eddie voted Zoe after it was hammered too.
Snarky skipped that part of the day altogether.

It definitely looks like most players simply voted away from making themselves lynchable or to get through that part of the day more quickly.
There's some possibility of votes from Mario, Dunker, or Mastina trying to protect teammates from being lynch options, but I don't buy it based on the attention on them and the way the votes were placed.
There's definitely an "I will look town if I vote to lynch from my own collection" angle that works though.

[Llamarble]

im alone on my wagon it seems

At least you picked the second best (permitted) one!

[Llamarble]

ehhh, don't like the snarky lynch

doesn't feel good

I feel like with that restricted of a PR that's much more likely to go to town with a decent PR like he's claimed

dunkerdoodles, on the other hand, is prime picking, so let's do that please

Okay. Maybe you need incineration too. Or like, purgatory.
"Lolol post restriction = town let's go elsewhere" is just offensively bad, especially in this game.
"Decent PR?" If you mean powerrole he's mentioned something heavily involving the survivors, which is a pretty obvious thing to give to scum.
Alisae, Vecna, Snarky have all shown really sketchy interest in the survivors.

[Llamarble]

Okay, you didn't say "lolol" but it's the low-effort/quality analysis I object to anyway.
Lynching you is still dumb, hence purgatory.
But Snarky must dieeeee

What sort of weirdo goes around prodding tree stumps?

You may actually have a vote because you guessed correctly? I suggest trying.

[Llamarble]

Dunker has been wagoning freely in the way that actually makes a day do something and yield results. "I like this" felt genuine.

Spoiler: Wagoning

VOTE: mulch

this is scum
VOTE: whymafia

VOTE: Screenplay
Serious vote.

ill sheep mulch for now, his d1 reads are usually fire
VOTE: screenplay

VOTE: SlySly

easiest scum I've ever seen

VOTE: slysly

VOTE: Lycan
i like this

woo new wagon
VOTE: slysly

I'm a bitch

I'm a lover

I'm a fighter

I'm a lover

VOTE: Vecna

so beautiful, it brought a tear to my eye
VOTE: Vecna

The repeated "Bulba is town" felt good to me.

Spoiler: Bulbatown

bulba is also locktown

bulba townie for me

bulb is still town
vecna probably town
llama looks towny

He has the attitude of reading the game to identify and lynch scum. His claim fits from moderately engaged town.

Spoiler: Other stuff

Damnit I want a claim!

this is scum
sheep me to victory thx
VOTE: Vaxkiller

Keep the votes coming fools

probably also scum tbh

ok whatever
i'm a day commuter, can't be targeted by any day actions. i can still be lynched tho.
i also wished for a cop shot last night and i got a 1-shot questionaire rolecop. so i can use that tonight

can i at least use my cop shot before you lynch me if you guys are gunna
i'm basically useless after that so

Overall I think Snarky and Mario are both better choices for today.

[Llamarble]

Snarky
Mario

[Llamarble]

Toby's foreheads:
Chesskid2
Danny Trejo
My dog Willie (pretty sure he is trying to read the thread)
And, Toby Determined themself

[Llamarble]

Pretty sure Dreal isn't happening at this point. This is good.
Votes go on Snarky or Dunker. I still don't understand dunkerscum though. I can't go through those posts and "yep, scum scum scum" them.
Well, unless we all want to flashwagon Mario, which could be a nice adventure in this "lock votes into a couple big wagons and then lurk" town. I see why Mastin wants to lynch everyone.

VOTE: Mario (both votes)
Naturally, I'll go back to Snarky if needed.

[Llamarble]

Okay, even if Vecna is scum, that doesn't look like a lie.
Snarky isn't in the survivor neighborhood (obviously). Probably some kind of anti-survivor role.
But why does a third party result mean we should lynch him?

[Llamarble]

Alright. We might have to be really sharp from here on though.
VOTE: snarky (both votes)

[Llamarble]

<3 <3
Am still convinced you're just trying to keep me from getting nightkilled.
I shall justify your faith in me

[Llamarble]

No vigging Drealmerz.

Tentatively:
Yes vigging Eddie.
Yes vigging Snarky.
Yes vigging Screen.
Maybe vigging Vecna.
But we have time and we should use it.
Can we have no shot for, say, 48 hours? Need to thinkkk. Game should be pretty accurately solvable now and today probably decides the game.
Mastin + Mario towns change things a lot, and we have Dunker to look at too.

votecount 1.10

6 players voting for Bulbazak (drealmerz7, Lycanfire, Not_Mafia, Srceenplay, Chickadee, chesskid3)
5 players voting for Lycanfire (EddieFenix, Desperado, mastina, mastina, MarioManiac4)
3 players voting for Srceenplay (Bulbazak, ActionDan, Vaxkiller)
2 players voting for Toby Determined (SnarkySnowman, SlySly)
1 player voting for SlySly (randomidget)
1 player voting for Serious Vote (Toby Determined)
1 player voting for ActionDan (Mulch)
1 player voting for Vaxkiller (Dunkerdoodles)

1 player not voting (Vecna)

with 21 votes, it takes 11 to lynch.

day 1 will end 60 hours after Llamarble picks up their role PM.

So basically Screen is the scum on Bulba's wagon and Eddie was the scum on my wagon and Dunker / any others herped derp?
If Desp is scum I guess it could be a 3 person team with extra kills and a billion survivors to help them out. I don't think I believe in that though.

[Llamarble]

RM, ActionDan - when are you guys gonna start doing stuff and allowing yourself to be read one way or the other?

[Llamarble]

Well youre definately in the potential scumpool marble, even if youre not scum you should be realizing as much

Okay, I get that you haven't played with me much, but mislynching me is borderline impossible.
And tomorrow is solving day, so you get to see why
Calendar (mostly) cleared.
Alisae, you're gonna return just to sheep tomorrow's masterpiece.
If that doesn't convince you then you're just the designated townie who chews on my leg all game to keep me from getting NKed while I murders all the scum. Except that one time where it was lylo and my leg got fatally chewed. If it does get to lylo don't be that townie.

Alright I think I'm bedtime.
Also I just proved I am town. Again. Yay!

[Llamarble]

I still wonder if Snarky is some kind of survivor hunter.
Survivors can win with the town too, you know.
Suggestion to shoot them is bad.
If survivors decide to work with scum we would need, like, perfect or near-perfect lynches. We're not winning if we treat them as scum.
Even if they straight up function as town we probably need good accuracy to win.
At least one scum must die today. And tomorrow. That is the path to a manageable game.

There's a good chance this game comes down to which faction my survivor-friends like better.

As a first offering, Desp should probably promise right now not to shoot them.

[Llamarble]

This game is actually difficult?
I can't even put D7 in "willing to lose if he is scum" certainty category.

[Llamarble]

Dunker's ISO is, like, useless.

Note to self check D7 Claim interaction with the ZoeZeldas.

[Llamarble]

Dunker's ISO fits with Vecna and/or Screen. But like, not by an amount that matters.
More important is how others treated him.

[Llamarble]

Okay so
Me + NotMafia
Chess + Chickadee + Alisae + Drealz + Desp

Snarky the 3p is probably a survivor hunter or if responsible for the fruity weirdness he could be a power-accumulating SK or something. I don't understand it and I don't trust it.
It really didn't seem like Vecna was lying. If we're shooting a 3rd party, I strongly recommend shooting snarky and trying to get the survivors to win with town.

Mafia probably live in
Eddie + Screen and/or Vecna + Dunker + Random and / or Dan
This has a "solved, maybe" feeling. I've been reading a lot today. It doesn't have the FOLLOW ME, MY FRIENDS, yet. I really really want to get into that mode. Meow.
Let's find the scums in that group and if there's one outside it role actions can take care of it.
We can wipe out like half of the mafia group today if we are patient *cough*. Time to resolve within the group...

Desp

, you should actually shoot pretty soon.
But let me at least figure among those 5 best options for a bit.
If you shoot while I'm at the climbing place I'm about to go to, do Screen or Vecna or Snarky.

[Llamarble]

I agree with vecna's post on llama entrance.
It is the same feeling I got.

Screen + Vecna

Whatever, I tried to engage. I'll just coast again.

Hmm. Seems town.

Lots of derping around with heals and sitting on Snarky D2. + scumpoints.

Calls Dunker a bad lynch in the way it felt bad to me. +townpoints. But like, not a lot of them.

Everyone who is still voting dunk, why?
He claimed jester when he thought he was lynched. Do you not believe it?

What. +Trollpoints. +Townpoints?

Mmm, Screen's ISO works from scum. But it is not a slam dunk, at least to me.
2946 is actually really ALARM BELLS not good though.
The scum way to do "how can you think I'm scum WTF."
Dreal and Snarky are where groupscum would lobby for shots to go IMO.

[Llamarble]

Still don't like Vecna's initial exchange with me.
But he's having fun playing the game and offers a good variety of nuances and his role somewhat excuses the 3P obsession.
His lock-in on me also gets less offensive when the other wagons were also not on scum.
He's playing very well if scum.

[Llamarble]

Well, yesterday I thought you were bussing Snarky. You seem like the bussing type.
I had this "Oh, he voted his partner now I can stack my votes on to lock that in and force scum to help town" Glorious Secret Plan.
I mean, I guess that's not totally ruled out but it is pretty farfetched now for various reasons.

Also, on this readthrough Eddie is showing some pretty serious righteousness and conviction.
I wouldn't have a chance at faking that level of brashness so I'll compare against some scum meta tomorrow.
I'm a lot more afraid of a townflip from that slot than I was before.

P.edit:
Somewhat excuses because I had to put in a fair amount of thought before I decided lynching 3p non-survivor was the right move yesterday where I didn't notice that consideration from you.

[Llamarble]

Ooh, ActionDan works really well with Screenplay. Sit vote on buddy -> switch to town because deadline in all-wagons-on-town D1.
Herding cats speech looked town at first glance but scum at second glance.

SRCEENPLAY + ACTIONDAN + Random?
Meh 2894 is a little town. I need to look at Random's vote-moves D2.

So I guess my favorite pick for shot #1 as I go to sleep is Screen?
But meh it's not perfect yet. I really wanted to make it crystallize today and go FOLLOW MEEE.
But people I wanted to lynch decided to look town instead.
I don't think my reads are good enough to where everyone should do an OPERATION SHEEP LLAMA yet.
Believe me I will make it obvious when I get there. I might be close if my reads tomorrow get me more Screen + AD confidence.
Or everything could flip around for me again

[Llamarble]

Meowwww
Show us!
Eddie could flip scum. I hope he does. Mostly I'm relieved horrible possibilities didn't happen.

[Llamarble]

If Desp was scum, he obviously shoots chesskid.
I checked with the mod and vigshots are instant so if one vig shot the other retaliation was not possible.
The horrible possibilities essentially involved one vig shooting the other because of threats and things.

[Llamarble]

Random is a pretty good lynch.
Snark needs to be considered too. I lack good ideas what 3p he could be and as long as survivors help us we are ahead now.

I think those two and screen are the serious options for today. No reason to rule Alisae out as scum, particularly given the scum version of her role would probably autolose if out when last scumbud died but other choices seem better.

[Llamarble]

Agree Ali is probably town.
Avoiding getting hosed by bad assumptions though.
Agree with having Random claim.

[Llamarble]

I'm probably going to vote for Screen but I'll wait a little longer since votes are final and all. I should have some more good reading time later this week.

[Llamarble]

Figure out who is scum and communicate why you think so clearly.
Showing some of your thoughts along the way helps too.
If you really are town and you're active and giving effort, it usually shows eventually.

[Llamarble]

Do you actually have a vote NM?
I still think VOTE: Screenplay is better odds.

[Llamarble]

I think at this point it's pretty obvious that Screenplay and Chesskid are the two remaining members of the mafia.

[Llamarble]

I feel like not being able to move my vote has kind of hosed my engagement with today.
Like, normally there's all this self-doubt and "If I'm wrong, we can still fix this, please Screenplay if you're town help me townread you"
I guess one thing I'll say is that antagonizing a survivor this much doesn't make a lot of sense for scum to be doing.
But it looks like it largely came after chess voted for him, so I guess he could genuinely feel super betrayed (believes survivors should "belong" to the scum or something).
Or sees Chess as the only hope for a non-mafia lynch after Random, like Chess described.

But yeah, I already voted.

[Llamarble]

I think at this point it's pretty obvious that Screenplay and Chesskid are the two remaining members of the mafia.

??????????????

I did not expect that statement to be taken seriously.
"Mafia survivor" made me laugh, although it is actually less totally absurd than it sounds with the secondary wincon. That said we Definitely do not need to (and should not) lynch chess to win even if his secondary could be primarily mafia sided. It doesn't matter what the secondary is if he succeeds at his primary anyway.

[Llamarble]

Well I think I've voted you for most awesome every time.
And possibly Alisae and maybe Dreal or something.

[Llamarble]

INSANITY CONFIRMED

Ahhhhh
So Snarky + Screen then, probably, but need to read.
Like, it's not me chesskid Chickadee.
Could still be Vecna.
Probably not Drealz.
Not Mafia is an innocent child treestump who can vote, which is ??? but still probably town.

[Llamarble]

I mean, the only living towns are probably me Drealz and ??? among Vecna Screen Snarky
I don't think Screen will be the town in that trio
VOTE: Screen

[Llamarble]

Heres a thought; Scum was given all setup information (snarky)

Yes, Snarky's role is an obvious possible scumrole, thank you for your insight.
Congratulations to Not_Mafia on somehow managing to be totally useless despite getting "confirmed" as town twice. Current tinfoil on that is SK.

If Chesskid and I who both replaced in not knowing what this game was manage to carry a town win, both of us starting out as survivor, I will laugh.
But if Screen's scum and we lynch him, we have lynches for both Snarky and Vecna and we almost definitely win, depending on the random return and the kills and whatever other nonsense is going on.

[Llamarble]

We did it
Somehow
And yes, very nice job arranging the last day Vecna, I was sad you didn't just hammer screen and I died instead, but things worked out.