Micro 745: Beyond Death [Endgame]

[Cabd]

Sorry, yeah. Same.

[Regfan]

Really hoping PZ doesn't need to be replaced here and turns up in time.

@Cabd - If you think you can get some of your thoughts down in the next ~6 hours or so it'd be appreciated since I can devote some time to actually reading through Hopkirk & Miccs recent posts with them in mind before dropping where I'm at after that.

[Micc]

I'm around all night. Lets throw a party.

[Cabd]

Reg? I'm here and coming to a decision now.

[Cabd]

Upon re-read; I hate the sobovlovspace (Now Papa Zito)-chip butty (dead scum) interactions.

Gah.

We've got Cabd as doc, BTD6 as v/la, and Hopkirk and Kawso in need of a prod. I also don't really want to lynch a lurker but I'm not yet getting any super scummy vibes among Micc, SS, CT, and NSG.

Of those four I'm finding Micc to be townest mainly because he refused to be fobbed off when burrowing on 56, even though i didn't give the answer he wanted right away. I think scum would probably have pretended to be satisfied and moved on more easily. However, of he is operating at the level of designing setups, we are probably screwed if he is scum.

For the record, I am reserving my real reads list until everyone else has posted theirs, i don't want "sheep the confotown's reads" being a thing.

[Cabd]
[SS, CT, NSG]
[Micc
[Hopkirk]
[]

*Not enough input: BTD6, Kawso

Both of these posts have SS as a cited town read for no actual stated reason, while the rest are justified in the posts before or between the two posts.

This post from SS also makes me weary:

resignation to being lynched is more townie amongst newbies than not imo. especially trying to give advice for where to look for scum post-flip since scum doesn't really care what town does after they're lynched - they just want to stay alive - while town does.

for example in my last game we wagoned scum early d1 and they responded by being much colder than they were early game

Spoiler: quotes

You have misrepresented my conclusion and are continuing discussion of game mechanics after others have stated that's a bad idea. I find both of those approaches questionable at best.

You went from discussing mechanics yourself to saying that approach is questionable pretty quickly. What specifically changed your mind?

Sobolev and kittycap's exchange on page 2.

I gave a logical progression from point to point to conclusion, but you stripped out the qualifier in your recap. When I called you on the change you said you hadn't added anything to my conclusion, but in point of fact you subtracted from it. Why?

That is what I did here, but Green skipped my qualifiers and presented it as me making a black and white statement. I appear to being getting heat for what he said rather than what I actually wrote, which is super confusing to me.

meanwhile the newbie townie that we wagoned d1 seemed like they kinda gave up and resigned themselves to being lynched eventually and expressed similar frustration to chip as to the case on them:

Spoiler: quotes

If you guys are set on lynching me that's fine. if there's any questions anybody wants to ask before I'm hammered, feel free.

I was surprised to see him at the top of her town reads.

why not ask her about it? Does this affect your read on Sobolev? You said she was a top town read, why haven't you tried to reach out and get her to townread you?

It kind of affected my read, but overall I've seen her as town this whole game. I don't know exactly what you mean by reach out to her to change her mind. All I've done this game is post my honest thoughts and don't really see why my posts are "bad in iso." It seems the tone of the game has drastically changed on the last page which has been pretty confusing for me.

i didn't realize chip was as experienced as he was however, so the i'm not tring these as much as before

It's a VERY soft and easily ignored way to start setting up to bus if needed; and to stay off the wagon if things turn around.

THe first metion of SS not in a reads list is in post 320, and it's just to ask a DIFFERENT person a question. Ugh.

For the record, I am reserving my real reads list until everyone else has posted theirs, i don't want "sheep the confotown's reads" being a thing.

sure

{SS, Cabd}
{NSG, Cheeky, Chip}
{BTD}
{Hopkirk, Micc}
{Kawso}

I haven't seen anything from Sobolev that made me want to push him so he gets to be a default town read.

Sobolev is scum leaning Hopkirk too, yet you have no problem with that?

322 has the first questions TO SS:

hopkirk is back to null for now

For the record, I am reserving my real reads list until everyone else has posted theirs, i don't want "sheep the confotown's reads" being a thing.

sure

{SS, Cabd}
{NSG, Cheeky, Chip}
{BTD}
{Hopkirk, Micc}
{Kawso}

@Sobolev: there were 4 Hopkirk posts in between these. Can you please explain your progression from null to scumlean on him, with reference to those four posts?

@Micc: Given your keen interest in Hopkirk assessments and progressions, how did you fail to notice this?

[Cabd]

For the record, I am reserving my real reads list until everyone else has posted theirs, i don't want "sheep the confotown's reads" being a thing.

[Cabd]

[

SS

,

CT

,

NSG

]
[

Micc

[

Hopkirk

]
[]

*Not enough input:

BTD6

,

Kawso

[Micc]

Cabd what do you think of the part of day 2 where Zito seemed to be helping to push the NSG wagon but still willing to go either cheeky or BTD?

[Regfan]

Reg? I'm here and coming to a decision now.

Awesome, here now too and about to read your SS post.

What's your read on Miccs play throughout the entire game / this day phase and what do you make of Hopkirk?

[Cabd]

I'm still working.

[Micc]

regfan lets talk. ill let you pick the topic

[Micc]

or cabd too I guess. The holiday was a much needed break from this game but right now I'm eager to get this figured out. I'm just struggling with distinguishing what matters and what doesn't because I think a reasonable case can be made both ways here.

[Regfan]

@Cabd -

For me there's only really three things that point towards Micc being mafia at all here, let me know if you think there's more than these;

1) The lack of actual push and pressure from him on Chip throughout early/mid D1, there were lots of interactions between them and lots of Micc stating he's scum reading Chip but when it actually comes down to it there's not a lot he did to try and get Chip lynched at all, this is something Hopkirk pointed out recently that I think is a valid point. Think it also makes sense as town trying to avoid going all tunnely in the early game but it's not the best look given the flip.

2) The ignition can make sense from him as mafia if you're looking at it in the "He's able to make the strongest case about him knowing it's suboptimal as mafia and therefore possibly be faslely cleared due to it" knowing that he was already a scum member down and needed something to put himself in a better position come the late game to secure the win. That said think this action can make sense from others too so I'm trying to avoid reading

too

much into the N2 action if I can.

3) His stance of "Scum wouldn't buss" for the mid stage of this game is one I strongly disagree with and if he's scum one that he can easily use to get himself through a few easy day phases. I've already run through how I think if anything this setup promotes bussing more than dissuades it and the path of "Take easy lynches on players that didn't push Chip D1 and then do a turnaround to get someone that helped get his later int he game" makes plenty of sense to do as scum and is probably the route I take as mafia here. I did kind of like his discussion with me at the end and started believing that he really holds the stance he claims to have on this though.

Then if you take a look at the things I find town from him it's;

a) His interactions both directions with Chip throughout D1 feel very much like S/T rather than S/S and a lot of things said between them that I'd struggle to see partners doing here. b) I find his read progressions, thoughts and actions throughout the game to very much match what I'd expect from town attempting to gamesolve and lynch their scum reads, I don't see this as much from the other two people at all which leads me to c) If Miccs scum here he'd have designed this entire game to end up at this exact F4, he'd have known N1 that barring something unusual happening he'll get here which makes how much of a hole he put himself in re; how strongly he town read both other players feel like it doesn't have much scum motivation behind it.

If you want specifics that I really liked of his the handling of the Chip scum flip to him dropping a vote on NSG to elaborating on it in Post 635 and conversing with her in Post 644 to then unvoting a few days later in Post 714 with the "Haven't had that aha moment yet" type explanation being something I can very much understand, to the way he moved back to vote her again in Post 745 is just a read progression that feels /very/ real and genuine.

I've also liked most of his interactions and answers to me since I've replaced in.

So tldr; I think he's town here, I'm not as 100% sold on ruling him out as I was earlier but I'd probably recommend lynching in the others unless you've got a big point about Micc that I'm missing here. Really just /words/ about where you're at with him would be super super appreciated.

[Regfan]

regfan lets talk. ill let you pick the topic

I'll take whatever thoughts you have on Hopkirk and his recent posts and analysis about both yourself and SS.

Just unfiltered unedited thoughts from you here would be nice.

[Micc]

ill start by saying that I think that the day 1 vote on bdt over chip doesn't quite feel like a scum tell to me. Given the context of the timing of what was happening in the game I think the BTD vote makes tons of sense. The game was stalling partially because btd wasn't around. when he came back and gave so little in his catchup wagoning him just makes sense.

but then again I sheeped his vote, so maybe Im biased?

[Regfan]

I'm moreso after your thoughts on his Post 1056->Post 1059, what do you make his thoughts and assessment of your play? Do you think he manner in which he's assessing it is coming across as genuine/forced do you think any of the points he's bringing up or focusing on is good/bad? Same goes for his read on SS Post 1068?

Like how has that posting impacted on your reads if at all?

If you held the hammer on both of them right now and had to drop it in 5 minutes who would you pick and why currently?

[Micc]

Re 1066: I don't get the attempt to paint me as not 100% trying to get Chip lynched for the middle parts of day 1. I'll admit i wasn't ready for a hammer until about 6 posts before it happened, but to act like i wasn't tyring to get him wagoned is silly. Hard to scum read hopkirk for this since hes coming at it from the angle that that im scum, but geez ill pull out quotes of me asking for a wagon if I have to.

This is actually a lot worse than I remember. I’d forgotten SS was around at the start until now really, and I can see why. There’s no stances, just townreading Chip while pushing an inactive surrounded by fluff.

this is pretty similar to my conclusion regarding Sobolev

[Cabd]

Effectively reg I'm lookign for reasons to townread the initial SS/Zito stuff BEFORE DA WAGON

[Cabd]

Because in a setup where mislynches are stumps; bussing early seems like a way more viable strat than i'd been giving it to.

[Regfan]

Effectively reg I'm lookign for reasons to townread the initial SS/Zito stuff BEFORE DA WAGON

I've got things I like and dislike from SS? None of them are particularly strong though. SS's stance of town reading Chips reaction towards being wagoned is just weird all around, it's a hard stance to believe a townie had given I thought Chips reaction was p woeful but it's also a hard reaction to see a scum partner do there since like, what's the gain in hard linking yourselves that early? So I'm probably not going to read

too

much into it overall?

I didn't like his reaction towards the Cheekys "I've got something on Cabd" in Post 199/Post 203 and hated his response to you post claim in Post 234, they all read very awkward? and not at all like real thoughts from him there and the "I had no idea you were a PR before you claimed" feels like a very weird part to attach.

Not sure who brought it up but SS interacting a lot with Micc and trying to get him to join him a lot to him sticking Micc so low in Post 287 is a real bad look.

[Regfan]

@Micc - Just in case you missed it would like this answered;

If you held the hammer on both of them right now and had to drop it in 5 minutes who would you pick and why currently?

If you're town here I'm sure you've got a million things going through your head, actually airing them a) Helps us to make sure we're making the correct decision since we'll be more informed and b) Will help me feel a bit better about you to quell the "What if I'm getting played by Micc" doubts in my head.

[Micc]

I'm moreso after your thoughts on his Post 1056->Post 1059, what do you make his thoughts and assessment of your play? Do you think he manner in which he's assessing it is coming across as genuine/forced do you think any of the points he's bringing up or focusing on is good/bad? Same goes for his read on SS Post 1068?

Like how has that posting impacted on your reads if at all?

If you held the hammer on both of them right now and had to drop it in 5 minutes who would you pick and why currently?

i had to go and read all those posts because I skimmed them the first time and have ignored them since. I just don't think its useful for me to have an opinion on that stuff. Hes approaching it from the aussumption that I'm scum - i don't really know how much of it he believes. That and reading people off what they say in lylo isn't how to play lylo so I try not to do it.

if I had to drop a hammer in 5 minutes id be on zito. both him and SS read worse on day 1 than I remembered. the only hang up I have is that Zito made that chip wagon happen and I still think its not what scum would do there.

[Micc]

@Micc - Just in case you missed it would like this answered;

If you held the hammer on both of them right now and had to drop it in 5 minutes who would you pick and why currently?

If you're town here I'm sure you've got a million things going through your head, actually airing them a) Helps us to make sure we're making the correct decision since we'll be more informed and b) Will help me feel a bit better about you to quell the "What if I'm getting played by Micc" doubts in my head.

yeah Im trying to manage tabs an look back at the posts you singled out while typing and thinking. if you have doubts about me lets get that straightened out first. its hard for me to know what im supposed to be doing here becuase whyd anyone listen to me when there's a ton of confirmed town around.

[Regfan]

I'm more likely to be able to rule you out by seeing you genuinely attempting to work out which of the two of them is scum than talking to you about yourself.

¯\_(ツ)_/¯

[Micc]

heh. we have different philosophies about approaching lylo then cause I'd almost rather roll dice than try to make reads off what people post in lylo.

Basically where I'm at is that if you take the 5 posts where Zito made the Chip wagon happen and remove them from the game I dont see a compelling reason for him to be town. Early in the game I had SS as town by POE. Obviously we've seen where how poor my POE was. Even looking at day 2 i find his trajectories kinda bad. he's all in support of my NSG push but conceeds that hed lynch cheeky too all well promising BTD the following day to UC. THats a three person lynch pool with one scum left.

[Micc]

i'm also resigned to the fact that bussing is way more valid of a strategy than I was originally thinking and that the Zito bus on Chip wouldn't be that outrageous. I'd even say its more likely that zito would hard bus from the get go than for Hopkirk to eventually end up on the wagon but I think Im getting into wifom here.