Micro 745: Beyond Death [Endgame]

[Regfan]

Few of those links at the end don't work but I opened up the posts manually. Agree with most of those points?

I think I'm at a weird spot where I'm fairly happy calling Micc town so am trying to sort Hopkirk v PZ and have more things that point towards Hopkirk being town than PZ but also have more things I think make sense with Hopkirk being mafia than PZ so it's left me far from confident making the call yet.

[Cabd]

Hearing from Zito would help too; but as you noted eh.

[Hopkirk]

I’ve read the recent stuff before posting this time. Will respond/comment there after finishing the rereading (unless I’m interrupted by security updates which is possible).

Chip

54/6- These don’t really make sense together. Micc is town for pushing Chip, but Chip thinks there’d be two scums on his wagon (come to think of it now, not mentioning specific people and saying 2/3 is weird). Potentially reading a partner differently. Most stuff around the early RVS wagon is null since it could have been planned though.

106- Says he’s read through part of Micc’s scumgame. On the one hand, I wouldn’t expect someone to do meta on a partner so early. On the other hand, could want to know how Micc plays as scum. First option is significantly more plausible since there’s no point saying in thread if he did the second purely for information.

242- Townreads both Micc and SS. Micc one is justified somewhat, SS isn’t. The stuff about Micc designing setups still seems weird, but not scummy weird.

292- Changing Micc from top town to middle seems unnecessary if they were partners- bringing unneeded attention to it. SS still unjustified townread.

302- Says he thinks Micc ‘might be good at inserting himself into a townblock’. Most obvious thought here is that Chip tried to put Micc as town to make Micc back off, it failed, and he flipped on Micc. Seems very unlikely he’d react like that to a partner, so gives townpoints to Micc.

315- If partners, Chip sounds legitimately irritated at this point. Micc doesn’t stop voting Chip, which looks good.

A substantial number of posts follow, focused around Micc. Looking more closely at timings, Chip looks like he wants Micc to hard bus at the points where scum Micc wants to focus on other people. It seems unlikely that they’d play at right angles for as long as they did, which reflects well on Micc. That mitigates the points I made earlier about Micc signalling, unless Chip was really dense, which is far less likely.

490- Reread SS and ‘it is solid’. Don’t like that being his only comment.

514- Says he’d have PZ leaning scum if not for SS. Slightly inconsistent with earlier saying SS is mostly still null (though may have updated in 490). Doesn’t make sense that he doesn’t bring up what he dislikes about PZ.

525- ‘How am I supposed to townread you’ directed at PZ. Sounds like potential comment to partner.

Read on SS/PZ seems like a really marked change for Chip given he a.) avoids taking stances, and b.) hasn’t voted anyone. I can’t think of any immediately obvious explanations/motivations to do that except them being partners.
Stuff post the wagon on him isn’t very valuable since he probably realized he was going to die, and was being bussed, so he’d have incentive to introduce wifom there.

Conclusions: Micc less likely as mafia by a fair bit, PZ proportionally more likely.

[Hopkirk]

438- Kind of odd that he thinks there’s a lot of material, but votes on the person approximately tied for least material. I can think of three plausible explanations here though, so it’s null/playstyle difference.

524- Gives Chip multiple opportunities to not be scumread by PZ.
527- This is a pretty hard bus. I assume the vote was left out by mistake. Encourages Micc to join him on the vote. Brings legitimate reasoning. If partners, he’s decided to commit to bussing at this point. Could see the development there as a partner whose frustrated Chip hadn’t taken his get out offers. Similar to what I was saying on Micc, but the timing problems aren’t there.


581- ‘I feel like I've somehow wandered into Road to Rome.’ Sounds like more something you’d say about a partner than someone whose alignment you don’t know.

751- Unclear about his UC read at this point. By this point (D2), PZ has expressed willingness to lynch North, BTD, and Cheeky, but not UC. Obviously, that’s the people who weren’t on the wagon, but I feel there were legitimate reasons to dislike UC around this point. Reinforces the mood of ‘scum being off the wagon’.

910- Only really notable post around this time. Seems a lot more confident on Micc as town than he does today. Clearly town on Micc vs probably town on me.

Post the Chip bus, not all that much content. Just really coasts through ‘default lynches’ until this point.

I don’t like that PZ’s thoughts today seem really difficult to gauge. Micc seems to be developing thoughts, and PZ more waiting.

Currently like 80-20 PZ/Micc.

[Hopkirk]

Largely, SS/PZ is more scum due to absence of interactions rather than bad interactions. I could definitely see the bus occurring from that angle now if PZ gave up on Chip (Road to Rome comment), especially considering the Chip/SS stuff.

@Micc/1090: Could you pull those up, since they’re the strongest reason for my suspicions.

1105- I would 100% have hammered North if it got close to deadline and things continued to stall. She was at the bottom of my lynch pool, but I thought we’d win if we lynched everyone in that pool.

I liked Micc’s stuff over the last pages overall. Seems like he’s trying to solve, and seems consistent.

BTD definitely doesn’t think scum wouldn’t bus since she had Micc as her top scum for a while.


@Micc/1114: If you look at those games I linked that Regfan asked for, they (at least one of them, maybe both) also contain examples of me tunnelling a new townie hard day 1, then reversing my read to a (correct) townread afterwards. I can provide another two memorable examples off the top of my head if you want, but it’s pretty common for my reads on ‘new town’ to reverse. It was largely gut-tone based though.

Didn’t push against it since it was largely gut at that point. I also didn’t reread completely, more skimmed and recognised my initial points were pretty weak, and she seemed to be developing reads/putting effort in- and effort usually just seems townie from new players.

I don’t think I was being ‘lazy’ with my vote in 345/7. I thought North was scummier than Chip at that point.

[Micc]

Yeah I can go back and grab quotes of me pushing for chip wagon when I get to a computer later today.

Can you look back at your day 2 and pull out quotes that show you having a reads list? I’m trying to put together exactly what you were thinking over the course of day 2.

[Hopkirk]

713- BTD-UC-Cheeky listed as most to least likely scum. PZ listed as townread. Micc/PZ townreads and BTD/Cheeky scumreads reads follow from the end of the previous day.

723- BTD goes to behind Cheeky, and UC moves to the front (after explaining the main point I had well), followed by Cheeky. North listed as leaning town (sort of by POE too).

767- Townreads on Micc and PZ listed. Cheeky/UC scumreads restated.

@Regfan: 768- Didn’t remember before, but this is mainly why I didn’t defend North. I hadn’t got to doing a reread on him until after he voted himself, and there’s no point defending someone whose resigned to the extent that they’re selfvoting.

Cosistent reads on every player. My activity was pretty low day 2 though, so I didn't get a chance to fully go through UC/BTD/ reasons I scumread UC.

[Micc]

NSG had moved more towards town for you during day 1 then? Where was that?

Spoiler: Pulling out quotes of me trying to drive a chip wagon

Why aren't yall helping to wagon the guy who planted his RVS vote on a player who is replacing out and then disappeared from the thread?

Me asking for a Chip RVS wagon.

now i've got two trs and one of them isn't cabd

This seems to imply you got a town read on Hopkirk from post 38. Can you explain that one please?

yea i thought that his questions in 38 meshed a lot with what i was thinking when i read those posts which indicates a towny thought process. it wasn't a super strong read at the time but its been strengthened by his recent posts as well

ftr my other tr at the time was chip but when i entered the game the wagon on him was pretty much the only thing happening and i wanted to see what happened with it

has your opinion on chip butty changed as his wagon fell apart? the lack of traction for the wagon meant there was less pressure than I would have liked. I'm left feeling like I don't have a read on him because of it.

Me stating my disappointment that a stronger Chip RVS wagon didn't happen.

sorry, i wasn't clear again. me voting you initially wasn't entirely serious. my vote as it stands now is where i want it to be. let's look at the sum total of your contributions this game: you threw a little fit over someone's rvs vote and then you threw a little fit again over my vote on you. i hope i'm not making the mistake of letting how much i dislike you cloud my judgment, but i don't think i am.

Well, I think ive refuted the points you made regarding the seriously serious vote and I think this post unfairly mis represents my contributions to the game thus far. Do me a favor and seriously think about my play and ask yourself what is likely to come from town/scum and why. If you decide that youre scum reading me solely because you don't like what I'm doing or how I'm doing it then back off. If you really think I'm scum bring the evidence to the table. Right now I'm trying to decide if I caught scum you pushing a bad case or if youre town that is confirmation biasing herself because she doesn't like my approach to the game.

it's hard to display in quotes how natural you sound in one game as opposed to the other

and thus why I think this argument doesn't hold water. Its pretty clear that you decided my posts look "awkward" and went into my previous games in order to find evidence that proves to yourself that its alignment indicative. As Cabd can attest to, it takes A Lot of time to make a legitimate meta argument. And if you're going out to find the evidence after you have your hypothesis then your doing it wrong.

has your opinion on chip butty changed as his wagon fell apart? the lack of traction for the wagon meant there was less pressure than I would have liked. I'm left feeling like I don't have a read on him because of it.

eh he's still a tr. i thought his response to his wagon in 56 was fairly towny. it was a lot like how i reacted to being wagoned early in my first newbie game although given his join date i'm a little less inclined to tr it than i would if he was a newbie.

i wish he would contribute more but i'm most interested in hearing btd's thoughts rn

could you expand on post 56 please? that's the post I picked out as pretty useless to make as town and questioned him further on. Is there a reason a newer player wouldn't have this type of reaction as scum? for me it doesn't seem like the kind of thing that needs to be said if he's town and as scum he would likely be using it to discourage the players on his wagon from staying on it any longer.

Trying to convince one of my town reads that his town read on chip had flawed reasoning.

i've been a little but busy but i've also been thinking a lot about this game. the more thought i give to the issue the more i think it's possible i'm reading through the thread with the goal of trying to make you scum in my mind to fit some narrative rather than objectively looking at things. for the sake of both the town and myself i think it's counterproductive for me to keep going with it, so for now i think what i'm going to do is just try to focus on other people.

Cool beans. I can work that.
UNVOTE: northsidegal

The lack of ability to build momentum on any wagons so far this game makes me want to look for scum in the lower activity players. At the same time I'm conflicted because I generally view parking a vote on a player for lack of participation as a waste of time.

Talking more about how a chip wagon never happened and what I thought it meant about the game.

No, I'm not interested in wagoning anyone who's not here. That's never productive. I kinda want to wagon you because it still bothers me that it never got traction the first time.

Let's talk about Hopkirk. He's your lowest read of the players with more than two posts. I have him moving above you because I liked a lot of things he did in his catch up. What's your read based on?

Me saying that it bothers me that Chip never got wagoned and that I'd be up for it.

VOTE: Chip butty
Well none of that moved me away from wanting to see this wagon happen. I don't like his trajectory on me. He moved me from towniest among the active slots to being null simply by not posting for a day. I thought the creater of the setup thing was a joke at first but he reemphisised it without anyone else bringing it up and I can't see why he's letting that have an impact on his read.

My understanding of his point against hopkirk is that hopkirks reads are superficial and or lack deep analysis. Not only do I disagree with that I think I could accuse Chip of that same thing. Seems like more of his reads are activity based than anything else which I see as very superficial.

Me voting Chip in hopes that other players will join.

oh man. it took cheeky two sentences to explain what I've been trying to say for three days.

Can we get an actual wagon on Chip yet? That and some catchup posting from LUV/BTD would do wonders for this game right now.

Me specifically calling out to people for a Chip wagon.

@Micc: Are you done with BTD or do you still have things to hash out with that slot?

I'm not really done or satisfied with what came out of pushing BTD, but if this is you asking whether I still want the Chip butty wagon I've been calling for all game then consider me on board.

VOTE: Chip butty

Me not hesitating to drop my BTD push in order to wagon Chip at the first sign of interest from other players.

[Regfan]

I'll be reading the above few posts in more detail later tonight but really like Post 1132 a lot.

I may be alone in this but I'm really hoping PZ doesn't actually have to get replaced here, not sure how fair it'd be for his replacement to come here with them likely getting lynched regardless of their alignment and being completely unable to answer any of the questions that PZ would about the slots play.

[Regfan]

Finished reading Hopkirks recent posts and kind of like them? I disagree with a few things he's said but I can follow his thought process there a lot.

Maybe 60/30/10 now for PZ/Hopkirk/Micc?

@NSG & BTD

- Where's your head at right now?

[northsidegal]

@NSG & BTD - Where's your head at right now?

sorry, i don't think i've been giving this game the attention that it probably deserves given my play. i'm liking pz for scum a lot more than the other options.

[Regfan]

Realistically this games only got ~72 hours left in it, if you want to do a reread and share your thoughts I'm sure it'll be appreciated from more people than just myself.

Alternatively I'll just take 2-3 lines on why you think it's PZ over the others here.

[Regfan]

Day 5 will end in 4 days, 22 hours, 55 minutes.

^
Approaching the point where people with votes should start contemplating using them, as long as Cabd holds his fear of a blitz is impossible with 4 alive and 3 required to lynch.

[Cabd]

Which I'll be doing, by the by. Holding it, that is.

[Micc]

Gunna wait to see what happens with Zito here before voting. Doesn’t look like he’s been on site since Thursday. Hopefully everything’s alright and we’ll see him post before Lyncanfire comes around because I’d hate to see a replacement here.

[Regfan]

Yeah it's a weird spot where I really need some more from that slot to solidify my reads but I don't really think it's super fair to have someone replace in to get lynched ~70% of the time.

I'm just praying he turns up before this becomes a thing.

[Papa Zito]

Woo holidays, let me catch up.

[Papa Zito]

Well that was a disappointing read.

Let's talk people.

[Micc]

I’m here. Fire away

[BTD6_maker]

@NSG & BTD - Where's your head at right now?

sorry, i don't think i've been giving this game the attention that it probably deserves given my play. i'm liking pz for scum a lot more than the other options.

Same. I've been rather busy over the past week.

I originally thought that Papa Zito was much less likely to be scum due to the specific nature of the supposed bus, as opposed to simply the fact that they bussed. I should go back and reread each of the interactions with Chip during Day 1, specifically looking for what goes against my read rather than supports it. I would recommend that everyone looks for evidence that goes against their current reads rather than strengthening it.

[Papa Zito]

I’m here. Fire away

If you're not town I'll eat a steak. Absolutely nothing I can find points you to being mafia in this game.

So I'd rather you fire away cuz I don't wanna get mislynched.


Sidenote: I just discovered if you do alt+u it does the underline BBCode for you whoa

[Micc]

I don’t really have anything to say that I didn’t over the past couple days. Could you go through the points we’ve made and comment on them?

[Papa Zito]

Give me something you want commented on in particular. There's a lot that's been said.

I'm can't answer for any of the Space stuff.

[Micc]

Why have you been the last one to take a stance from day 2 onward. Make me feel better about you not riding my mislynch generating momentum all the way to lylo.

[Papa Zito]

Why have you been the last one to take a stance from day 2 onward. Make me feel better about you not riding my mislynch generating momentum all the way to lylo.

I was the 2nd vote on Day 2. Do you not consider this taking a stance?