Open 699 - Pick your Poison - Town Win

[davesaz]

Vote Count 4.2

not voting (7) - Fishythefish, mutantdevle, kelbris, ProHawk, DeasVail, havingfitz, boring

With 7 alive it takes 4 to lynch
(expired on 2017-12-12 22:00:00)

[ProHawk]

Scummz are def laying low

[mutantdevle]

@ProHawk, Mind giving your opinions on those in the lynch pool?

[Fishythefish]

I'm going to ignore the hypoclaims at the moment; if at any point either PR strongly thinks we should do a particular thing but doesn't want to explain, I think we should follow that.

My scum-to-town order is DV > kelbris >> ProHawk > boring.

UC

- UC's play on DV is really weird. UC voted DV with a massive case here. I pointed out lots of problems with it, and UC said I was right and unvoted here, after initially dismissing it. That felt weird at the time - I didn't really expect UC to be capable of that turnaround. I think this could well be UC backing off a bus.
- boring looks quite townie on the UC wagon - she voted UC (1191), but then almost immediately moved to me (1208). I was obviously never getting lynched yesterday, so this play ties boring into lynching UC without properly getting credit and without pushing a plausible alternative. It doesn't look like something scum would do.
- Otherwise, the wagon is not that interesting - kelbris and ProHawk both hopped on when UC was already in quite deep.

DV

My thoughts on DV haven't changed too much from here. Still looks like under the radar scum.

kelbris

I don't have much of a read on most of kelbris's game; it looks quite like scum doing the least possible stuff to get by. Very plausible scum.

ProHawk

The little PH's slot has done looks fine to me. PH has done quite a lot when shit got real today, including closing off some lynch options - that's not something scum would be wanting to do.

boring

My read on Elmo/boring is a bit of a mess. Overall, it comes out on the townish side of null.
- I think Elmo was a bit scummy.
- The way boring had lots of strong wagons day 1, with mostly town players on them, looks like scum.
- boring's play has been fine. Nothing spectacular, but she seems to be trying to work out what's what.
- I townread her yesterday. Both on the UC wagon (see above), and for going after me. I don't think scum have much reason to do that, and it's totally plausible to start SRing me when my posts become less frequent and good.

[ProHawk]

There's a lot Fish said about Boring that I agree with, I still need to finish my VCA and put more time into my reads.

I think everyone has spoken up since we finalized claims and scum have been less than tactical IMO which points to scum being in the lazier/low effort pool, of which Kelbris fits the bill quite well. I have played with DV before but I can't remember how good he is on that regard. Boring seems like she thinks things through pretty well, so I would have expected her as scum to have come up with a better plan...

[boring]

So it looks like we all seem to agree on DeasVail and Kelbris.

Either we've got this in the bag, or we're just fish in a barrel at this point.

I was reviewing UCV's exit recently. If I'm being completely honest with myself, I really wanted good reason to scumread Transcend. He gave us lots of good reasons, and the UCV hammer with the Luca NK was the final straw for me. But looking at UCV's exit, he did a reasonable job of confusing associations. He even bragged about it a bit, right? He slightly defended Transcend, stayed quiet while we started to associate them together, and then ended with "the scum team will win" (or something like that). In retrospect, that was a pretty transparent "you have no idea who my buddies are". I think I would have caught that sooner if I wasn't seeing red.

[mutantdevle]

Tbh I think all of us who voted Transcend are guilty of policy lynching Transcend. We all wanted him gone so we found whatever reason we could to dub him as scum. If we were to be honest with ourselves then I think we all knew he was bad town rather than scum. That said, I think we can all agree it’s a relief to have him gone.

[ProHawk]

Yes and no, he would have been exactly the same as scum I would imagine...

[boring]

... this has been an exciting 24 hours in the Open 669 thread.

Okay, so I'm going to get the ball rolling again, I guess.

VOTE: DeasVail

[ProHawk]

Why DV over Kelbris?

[DeasVail]

I've had a look through Elmo's posts again and I've tried my best to approach them with a fresh mindset. I can't promise that there's no element of confirmation bias there, but I can't help but be reminded of why I thought that slot was scum.

And it all starts from 115, the vote on mutant for his early, long reads list. Mutant was initially suspected for posting such an early, lengthy reads list but then this suspicion was starting to die down. At least to me, mutant was beginning to look very town, and it's as the suspicion is dying down that Elmo places a vote on mutant. It very much looks like an attempt to keep the suspicion of mutant alive as it's starting to grow stale, and what is most suspicious here is the locking in on one aspect of mutant's play without taking into consideration the progression since then.

Elmo then implies that she doesn't think mutant's post was scummy in 127, which then begs the question, what was the point of the vote? There's no evidence that Elmo was looking to pressure mutant or gain a reaction out of him. It appears much more like, at best an attempt to make a vote for an acceptable reason in order to fit in, and at worst an attempt to keep the suspicion of mutant alive without strongly investing in the wagon herself.

159: Elmo now calls mutant out on a supposedly opportunistic vote, and says that she's comfortable with her vote on mutant. At what point did mutant become scummy? Does Elmo even consider mutant to be scummy at this stage?


In later posts she acknowledges her inconsistency, which is fine. Town can be inconsistent just as much as scum can be, but what I find scummy across her posts is the general whining about people voting for her and accusing people of being "opportunistic" when she's entirely aware that she's given people reason to vote for her. I think that the accusing people of being opportunistic is scum attempting to look town by taking the approach of playing the victim and "booo the scum are taking advantage of me as an easy wagon!!!", which is something that town will often do, but I don't think this is as likely here given that Elmo has already acknowledged the fact that she's been inconsistent.

And that pretty much sums up my thoughts on Elmo.

Boring's play has been objectively far better, but from reviewing her posts I still think she is scum. This is obviously coloured by Elmo's play, but I think that's always going to form a part of my read, and I believe boring is just a better scum player than Elmo is.

These are the things that stand out to me from boring's posts:

- Her votes on 'big targets' such as Luca and Fishy at various points in the game come across as insincere to me. I've re-read the Luca suspicion and it feels manufactured to me. This is not one I can explain properly other than it's just the feeling I get with the initial suspicion for weak reasoning and the slow easing off until Luca's a townread, with no real change from Luca in terms of his play. I feel that the fishy vote is perhaps more transparent in that she makes the vote without any evidence of intent to make it a wagon or a lynch. It comes across to me as an attempt to look good by having non-easy, meatier targets. Especially given her belief that scum will generally go for easier targets. I think she's putting effort into avoiding what she believes scum are more likely to do.

- Her reaction to the kelbris hammer after a previous post saying that "there is no way Transcend is town". It just doesn't make sense to have that kind of reaction to someone if you genuinely think something similar to the severity of "there is no way Transcend is town". I agree that the kelbris hammer was an anti-town move regardless of Transcend's alignment. But comparing boring's reaction to mine, which was along the lines of "oh well that's a bit early but at least we'll get a probably scum Transcend flip!", it feels at least a bit off.

I think scum-boring here would have been trying to look like she genuinely believed Transcend was scum, using strong language like "there is no way Transcend is town", which she didn't really mean. In terms of her reaction to the kelbris hammer, I'm not sure of the scum-motivation behind it (and it would vary depending on kelbris' alignment), but I do think it betrays a lack of authenticity in the previously stated belief that Transcend was scum.

Lastly, I find subtle jabs such as in 1397 to be quite scummy. It should be fairly obvious that my position is going to change after the townflip of someone I thought was scum. But instead she's throwing subtle shade at the fact that it was "weird" for me to vote for her after agreeing with one of her posts about Transcend the previous day. I disagree that there is much argument for it being weird, and I also don't like the way in which the post was made, further encouraging a negative opinion of me but without taking a strong stance on the point.

I've thought about the VT claim, and I don't think it's alignment-indicative either way. I don't believe she would have fake-claimed a PR as scum, knowing that Fitz was a PR (who everyone seemed to believe) and not knowing who had hid their PR.

Anyway, that's all I have to say about boring. I don't know if I'll survive the day, but my thoughts are clear there at least.

VOTE: boring

[ProHawk]

Why boring over Kelbris?

[ProHawk]

So.... DV has been playing pretty safe and non-confrontational up until today. A lot of town reads, few and light scum-reads and no real pushes per-say.... There were a couple moves looking back in isolation that could point to being partners with sheep/UCV but I'm not too sure

[DeasVail]

Why boring over Kelbris?

I think kelbris could be scum, but boring is more likely in my opinion.

[ProHawk]

I would like to know why she didn't follow through with her suspects after the Transcend flip?

[kelbris]

I am back, I had no intention of "lying low until LyLo" as boring put it. I was simply more focused on events in real life rather then this game, good thing too since my team won the reserve shield in the country teams as a result (that's chess tournament btw). My reads on the lynch pool (minus myself obviously) are as follows:

ProHawk: scum-seems like he wanted to get me lynched before I had a chance to come back from V/LA, not even giving me a chance to make my reads list. Noticed how when Boring decided to vote for Deas he simply said "why DV over kelbris" and when DV voted for boring he simply said "why boring over kelbris". I suspect that he is partners with boring to be honest.

boring: scum-the way he pointed the finger solely at those that went V/LA or were busy IRL seems to me like he is choosing the easiest targets to go for a mislynch, especially since we both claimed VT, meaning it would be easier to get said mislynch.

DeasVail: town-has made some really good posts (such as #1485) and in general seems one of the least likely to be scum in my book.

mutant: town-if he is indeed PR as he claims, then I see no reason that he is scum. I also agree with what he said regarding Transcend's lynch.

Fish: town-post #1478 really strikes me as a town-aligned post, I have also not seen anything scummy from them today.

VOTE: boring

Once again, sorry for the V/LA but when a big event is on IRL I prefer to put my focus solely on that.

[boring]

I would like to know why she didn't follow through with her suspects after the Transcend flip?

Kelbris is probably scum, by POE and generally shifty behavior, so I'm willing to vote him today, if he's everyone preference. But there's still some chance that Kelbris is just weird (i.e., completely unaware of mafia game etiquette).

I have no such reservations about DeasVail, and because no one's voting right now, I get to make the wagon. His little wall there looks exactly like the convince-the-conf-town-to-vote-wrong effort that scum usually put in as their last hoorah at lylo. It's not lylo, I realize, but he's coming to his end, and I think he knows it.

p-edit: The timing on your walls made me chortle. You were supposed to wait a little longer after Deas's post, Kelbris, it would have looked more natural. Either way, a valiant team effort.

[boring]

. But instead she's throwing subtle shade at the fact that it was "weird" for me to vote for her after agreeing with one of her posts about Transcend the previous day.

Not only do I find myself drawn to hyperbole, I occasionally understate. I meant to throw a whole heap of shade at your voting patterns. No subtlety was intended.

[mutantdevle]

Kek kelbris since when was I part of the lynch pool? Like if you’re going to include me in that then at least include fitz too you silly :3

Speaking of fitz, I think he’s due a “bleh, I’m still here” post.


It’s good to see discussion picking up though :P

[kelbris]

@mutant I was reading through havingfitz's post #1438, my mistake. Didn't see that he had corrected it.

[davesaz]

Vote Count 4.3

boring(2) - DeasVail, kelbris
DeasVail(1) - boring

not voting (4) - Fishythefish, mutantdevle, ProHawk, havingfitz

With 7 alive it takes 4 to lynch
(expired on 2017-12-12 22:00:00)

[havingfitz]

Bleh...I'm here.

@kelbris and Deasvail - if either mutant or I are the tracker boring went nowhere N2. So his chance of being scum is cut by half-ish.

[DeasVail]

Bleh...I'm here.

@kelbris and Deasvail - if either mutant or I are the tracker boring went nowhere N2. So his chance of being scum is cut by half-ish.

There are too many possibilities left open for this to have much impact for me.

1. Are either of you even the tracker? (Obv don’t answer this)
2. For N2 there was always going to be one scum making the kill and one scum not making it. Arguing against a lynch of someone because they are cleared from being the one that made the kill on a particular night gives rise to the dangerous possibility of giving scum a free pass.

[havingfitz]

1. Why ask?
2. His chances of being scum are less than people not potentially tracked.
Who's your second most suspect?
Boring can be sorted tomorrow after PRs are known.

[Fishythefish]

I strongly think that if a player has no-visited, we shouldn't be lynching them today. Being 50% less likely to be scum is a Big Deal.

Luckily, all the possible information (both cop and tracker) is good for ProHawk or boring, and I don't want to lynch them anyway.