Mini 1962: Magical Girls Mafia II (Day 4)

[Korekiyo Shinguji]

FTR, I'm also starting to second guess my read on Kiyo. They also yelled on people to unvote (but unlike you they weren't voting anyone themselves).

Day 2 ended with two votes on Kaito that didn't know the count, of course I'm skittish. You know why I was frustrated yesterday.

[Korekiyo Shinguji]

Also Kiyo's defense of you isn't too convincing to me, so if LLD is scum and you are trying to save her with that counterwagon it makes sense that Kiyo is your third. It doesn't have to be but it still would make sense and wouldn't surprise me.

My read on Maki is one of those emotional/tone reads that I'm very confident in. I don't want her lynched. She's town and she's gamesolving. If I go down first I'd hope you sheep this read. The reason she's willing to consider Kokichi town is because I said I trusted

your

opinion on the matter.

I'm not nervous about Panzer being lynched quickly the way I am about LLD because there's a lot of heat on the latter.

But I do see your point about Maki being on the competing Panzer wagon while calling for unvotes on LLD.

[Korekiyo Shinguji]

mastina was the one I wanted to talk the most with after Kaito's flip so I'm nghhh on that regard I have things I want to ask both of you and Kokichi but you believe I am scum getting info so anything I ask you just gets outright shut down.

Mastina's reads have stayed the same after Kaito's flip. Hardcore got angry about the lynch, said they trusted no one (specifically not our hood, not mastina) and called for Elizibereth's head because Mulch didn't unvote Kaito after Almost's post.
Mastina then said, if she'd had the information I had from Almost she would have unvoted, but with what was stated in the public thread by Almost she would not have unvoted Kaito. She also said her reads had stayed the same for the most part. She still wants Kokichi and Panzer lynched, Kokichi moreso.
She conceded that her Elizibereth read had been hurt but she wasn't willing to call it scum without another day phase to sort it out. I'm not sure what sparked the change personally since she defended the Kaito wagon, but I wasn't able to ask as night phase ended and she was bubbled.

Her argument for Kokichi scum involved Kaito's cop target being known only to that hood. She said scum were trying to reduce the number of clears. Well, one of her arguments, not the only one.

That's everything relevant from post Kaito's lynch I can think of off the top of my head.
Almost, your theory about me removing all of my hoodmates, I'll leave for now.

[Almost50]

@Kiyo: I'll probably be kicking myself in the butt for this, but I get the feeling this is Town you posting now. It feels as though the "poker face" you more or less maintained all game has started to show some emotions in these last 3 posts. Please don't be another "Cerb" in my closet.

And now you tricked me into a position where I cannot justify not taking your "emotional" read on Maki into account when I'm apparently doing the same thing regarding you. You know I usually prefer analytic scum hunting over emotional reads. *Sigh*

[Maki Harukawa]

Koki is Town because of many things, but one that I did hint is that he knew Kaito was a Cop as well as I did. Kaito didn't die and didn't get blocked on N1, and Koki had always defended Kaito all the way both in the main thread and in the neighbourhood. It would have been easy for Scum!Koki to be unsure in the PT right off the bat, or to show some suspicion when Ice turned out dead.

Also all his arguments are valid and make sense. He's NOT trying to strong arm anything. In fact, Kaito TR'd you while me and Koki SR'd you, and right after Kaito got lynched Koki posted a short message in the neighbourhood that was intended for Kaito to read that could be paraphrased as: You should've trusted me. She is Scum.

Now the way you "sneaked in" a vote on that wagon coupled by he lol!hammer LLD placed was suspicious as hell. I would request that you go back and read the posts just before you voted Kaito, check the timestamps, then follow up until LLD hammered and see how you'd feel if it was me in your slot and you in mine.

Like, I'm not playing tricks here. It's a straightforward accusation supported by a clear reasoning. If I'm wrong about your alignment then you still need to understand that it as your play that lead to this situation. It wouldn't have been his hard a SR if you didn't vote Kaito in the first place (ignoring what I said about him and his declared action). There was no need for you to vote there. No time constraint and no competing wagon that you hard TR'd. NOHING.

Kokichi in my eyes what he needs to win take control of a neighborhood he is in and go for anyone who dares question it. Look at it from my pov we have a neighborhood of 3 all calling each other basically conf town along with another neighborhood being on top of that. Do you see how suspect that is when barely any reasoning is given at all? That isn't even the main thing though Kokichi is using underhanded tactics to get out of things he'll answer right away or he'll ask questions I can not answer use his gimmick to get out of this. You don't see me Kiyo Kaito Himkiko etc using our character to get out of answering questions you saw Kokichi's case on me and you saw my answer one that he never responded to the reasons he had for sring me were things that were nitpicky nonrealistic (such as me being scum for not remembering 100 when were on 700) things he was doing himself (dodging questions withholding info) if kokichi is town why can't other people do these said actions as town too because from his pov he's town and he's done it correct? It's because it's not real to me it's not a genuine sr he's also asking stuff that I still can not answer HE KNOWS WHY I CAN'T ANSWER AND IT'S SUCH A DIRTY TRICK he refuses to comment on it either he's trying to win this game using whatever means possible
I didn't sneak in a vote I thought Kaito was trying to cover up his tracks by saying he visit'd the kill Kaito is my best friend and yeah I felt like I could read him I

can

read him but I fucked up it was a mistake I relyed on my meta of him and it bit me in the ass I feel somewhat shitty because he knew I was town and my stubborn ass didn't listen but I'm not gonna beat myself up over it because it's a mistake and he would want me to solve this game and win instead of throwing a pity party
Now I am looking into Kokichi being town even after everything I just said and everything I feel because of

you

and

kaito

that's it and if you would just stop being...or just listen for once this wouldn't be as hard as you're making it out to be Kiyo isn't scum either Kiyo is the only one fucking listening to anything rn

[Korekiyo Shinguji]

Actually I don't really want to leave it because it's silly. Do you really think my plan as scum would be to try and remove town mastina (who despite not having me as a lock townread is still townreading me) and then trust myself to be able to come up with fake reads and opinions from my dead hoodmates? That's a

lot

of work for an uncertain reward. You know how lazy I am.

Kaito was lynched in part because I wasn't available to properly send messages. I fucked up, yes. I was talking with you about the read, and I didn't think he'd be quickhammered. I'm sorry I didn't listen sooner. That's all I can say.

Pedit: Oh, hello.

[Maki Harukawa]

that was a mess of a post if you need better clarification let me know

[Korekiyo Shinguji]

@Kiyo: I'll probably be kicking myself in the butt for this, but I get the feeling this is Town you posting now. It feels as though the "poker face" you more or less maintained all game has started to show some emotions in these last 3 posts. Please don't be another "Cerb" in my closet.

And now you tricked me into a position where I cannot justify not taking your "emotional" read on Maki into account when I'm apparently doing the same thing regarding you. You know I usually prefer analytic scum hunting over emotional reads. *Sigh*

I didn't realize I had a "poker face" before, but alright.

And I know you do. But fully explaining my read on Maki is something I unfortunately

cannot

do but I hope you can be satisfied in knowing it isn't completely an emotional read. I'm considering towncasing her, though.

[Maki Harukawa]

Also, as soon as LLD had 2 votes on her today you started the counterwagon on Panzer. Then she joined you and then you started yelling at us to unvote. How would this look to you if you were me?

I don't want people to vote so fast yeah I voted but I won't let people hammer I do understand what that looks like but really I am asking is for you to lend me your ear and give out a bit of

trust

I'm not asking you to trust Kaitos read on me I'm not even asking you to say Maki you're 100% town I'm asking you to give me time and let me be able to solve this because rn I feel like I have a lot of the answers with barely anyone listening to me

My conclusions are based on you being a competitive player, not a VI. If it was someone else I might have viewed it as stupid town play, but coming from you it doesn't look that way. Burden of proficiency? It sure looks like it, except I'm judging you by your actions not by your reads. You could have all the wrong reads in the world but still play the game right. This just isn't the Maria I'm used to.

What is the maria you're used too are you trying to meta I would think my play changes from game to game but that's obv bias read my play this game for this game and my actions if you sr me for my actions this game and this one so be it fine by me but I don't wanna hear "you're acting weird" because of a dif game I will not have that

[Maki Harukawa]

UNVOTE:
I don't feel as confident on this given how the cc happened anyway I need time

[Maki Harukawa]

It's honestly up to everyone here to believe if people fucked up and made a mistake the day before or if scum are lying or maybe scum did fuck up and are using it as a cover who knows it's up to you to base it on but one huge thing you're running into is
someone being bltantly obv town to you doesn't make it obv town to everyone else and the fact the read was incorrect doesn't make it scum AI look at the actions and look for motivation you can have all your reads be wrong and be town and all of them be correct and be scum bussing being correct isn't AI it's how you handle your actions and thoughts if you look at the game just on "who is correct" and didn't sheep etc you're gonna get burned bad

[Almost50]

@Maki: No, I'm not using meta. I'm just saying I know you are better than this. I can lay back and give you some slack though and see how it goes.

@Kiyo: This isn't specific to this game, but more of a general tip: Stop selling yourself as a less than average player. I know how you can be when you want to be

Back in this game though: I neither said you did nor you didn't remove Mastina. I gave two possibilities .. one that would lead to you being Scum and the other that would lead to you being Town. Do you know something I don't? If not, then it's premature to assume either of the conclusions is true when we don't know whether Mastina's coming back or not.

Also, I'm getting a little shaky bc my top TRs are the ones being whacked. Remember this?

This is where I stand right now:

Lady Lambdadelta .... town?
Himiko Yumeno .... town?
Maki Harukawa .... ???
itissheaanderrantparabola (thestatusquo + errantparabola) .... ???

Ice Cream Sand Witch (beeboy + Alisae) .... Strong Town

Elizibereth (Ellibereth + Mulch) .... Strong Town
Panzerjager .... ???
Kaito Momota .... scum?
Kokichi Oma .... town

HardcoreMonkey (humaneatingmonkey + Toranaga) .... Strong Town

The Brain and Pinky (mastina + Ginngie) .... ???
RedFlavor .... ???

I think one of BnP/RF are scum though (according to my theory that one scum is placed in each of the two neighbourhoods).

So, if Kaito is scum then one of Maki/itissheaanderrantparabola/Panzerjager and one of The Brain and Pinky/RedFlavor is another.

Now how about killing me tonight? I'll even spare you the trouble and buy my own coffin

2 of the 3 slots I started off with STRONG TRs on have been killed and I can't do anything about it. That sucks. :/

Also, does/did Kokichi go by a different name before? Like I only recently learnt that Kaito = Dunn and Maki = Maria, so who is Kokichi?

[Maki Harukawa]

Hardcore and me had each other as top tr's too friend but we gotta move on and I don't really understand you mean by "better then this"
I have a few guesses on who Kokichi is but I don't really know

[Almost50]

I don't really understand you mean by "better then this"

LOL.. it's self-evident. You don't usually derp. You don't play careless or "fuck up" all that often. You can get bad reads, YES, but you almost never play like a noob. *Shrug*

Anyway, everyone is entitled to derp once every now and then, so I'm willing to accept this was your turn. Now get back to game solving and let's see if we can reverse the flow and bring back the Town into this.

[Korekiyo Shinguji]

Back in this game though: I neither said you did nor you didn't remove Mastina. I gave two possibilities .. one that would lead to you being Scum and the other that would lead to you being Town. Do you know something I don't? If not, then it's premature to assume either of the conclusions is true when we don't know whether Mastina's coming back or not.

I'm not assuming either is true. But in the case mastina is already dead, you should know why your theory does not lead to me being scum. Discussing hypotheticals is fine, surely. :>

[Almost50]

Also.. LOL .. it really sucks to be in my slot. Like.. a totally useless ability and a full blown universal TR .. I have no room to maneuver at all. I just can't play Mafia properly when I can't be tricky or sneaky .. and that's as either alignment. (Chara would perfectly understand this, but so would a number of other players on the site).

[Korekiyo Shinguji]

So, Panzer and LLD. I'm not really townreading either. Normally I might be worried both are town, but with no scum dead, a dwindling playerlist, and the assumption that Almost, Maki, and Kokichi are all town, I don't think there's a world where they both are. It has nothing to do with both of them being Commuters. I don't think that's a CC in a closed setup that could potentially have two commute abilities. We already have two neighbourhoods plus a neighbourizer.

Pedit: Haha. If only we'd replaced into each other's slots!

[Maki Harukawa]

I don't really understand you mean by "better then this"

LOL.. it's self-evident. You don't usually derp. You don't play careless or "fuck up" all that often. You can get bad reads, YES, but you almost never play like a noob. *Shrug*

Anyway, everyone is entitled to derp once every now and then, so I'm willing to accept this was your turn. Now get back to game solving and let's see if we can reverse the flow and bring back the Town into this.

What "fuck up" are you talking about. Just because I didn't know I was putting Kaito to L-1 doesn't mean I wasn't voting him to have the intent to lynch him I wanted him lynched no mistake there. I don't really know what fuck ups you're talking about and excuse you? Playing like a noob?

[Korekiyo Shinguji]

And Almost: I did manage to drag some usefulness from my Commute in DBZ, so I wouldn't say being essentially confirmed town makes you unable to trick anyone.

[Korekiyo Shinguji]

Maki, I believe not knowing you were putting him at L-1 is the fuckup he meant.

[Maki Harukawa]

Ah that makes more sense I guess I just don't fully understand what a50 is talking about still it feels like meta but he's saying it's not meta and even before the so called fuck up I was sr a lot so

rubs temples

regardless I believe we should look at Eli/Panzer/LLD at the moment

[Korekiyo Shinguji]

So does scum Panzer decide to CC LLD here? The only way it would make sense is if he were banking on everyone assuming scum wouldn't CC town in this situation because it would out them.
I wish today's discussion had more reads and less other things, honestly. Panzer, LLD, who's scum?
I'd also want to see reads from Ellibereth that aren't me being obvtown. That's an easy one. Even scum Ellibereth would say it because he knows I'd be on him for being wrong.

[Maki Harukawa]

@mod is himiko getting prodded or replaced anytime soon?

[Almost50]

Ok, let me try from scratch. >9< living players

assumed

Almost50 is Town (that's mod confirmed to me)
Elizibereth are Town (it's a given, only a few millimeters from being mod confirmed. You simply don't give Scum multiple gladiator shots ... unless your name is KuroiX that is.)
Now let me trust my heart on Kiyo, and then trust them on Maki.

That leaves the scum trio in a 5 players pool: Panzer, LLD, Kokichi, Himiko & Mastina

Here's what I want help on from the trio of Eli (with one L, so Mulch won't assume I'm talking of just the Elli head ), Kiyo and Maki:

Can you assume X scum and tell me who their 2 likely p's would be from the 5-slots in the proposed scum pool?

Also, does either of Maki/Kiyo have any objections over starting off with he assumption Eli are Town?

P-edit: GOOD. You both have stared doing that already. GREAT!

P-edit2: Ah. Maki DOES have an objection to Eli being in the Town block it seems.

I guess I should start by providing the answers to my own questions.

I'd start by listing all possible combinations. I'd then dash out all combinations involving LLD+Panzer being scum together, and LLD+Koki being Scum together.

With 2 players excluded from being LLD's partners it looks like the only scum team that does include LLD would be LLD/Himiko/Mastina

If LLD is Town though we have 4 other combinations: Panzer/Himiko/Mastina, Kokichi/Himiko/Mastina, Panzer/Kokichi/Mastina or Panzer/Kokichi/Himiko

I'll even toss in Eli (just for you, Maki. I'm NOT AT ALL sold on that slot being even remotely scummy).

If Eli are Scum then Himiko is likely their p. So, Eli/Himiko/Panzer, Eli/Himiko/Koki, Eli/Himiko/Mastina (I think we can safely exclude Eli+LLD to be scum together, no?)

I'd still like to point out that the gladiator thing from D1 doesn't make sense to come from Scum AT ALL, especially when we know the slot that was actually wagoned was none other than Kaito, but let's just pretend that Scum!Eli thought the Shea/Parabola lurking was indicative of a strong PR and try to see where bit leads us).

Does Koki+Mastina make any sense to any of you? Could they be playing an elaborate game of distancing where they keep SRing each other and end up voting someone else? I'm not sure that could ever come from Kokichi, and I doubt he could execute it if it was proposed by Mastina (yes, I wouldn't put i past Mastina to do something of teh sort, but it requires the other player to be as elaborate.. no offense).

So,

LLD/Himiko/Mastina

Panzer/Himiko/Mastina or Panzer/Kokichi/Himiko

Eli/Himiko/Panzer, Eli/Himiko/Koki or Eli/Himiko/Mastina

That's 6 possible scum teams, and ALL involving Himiko (I honestly didn't see that one coming before I started doing this).

If anyone has enough reason to exclude a pair there that would automatically eliminate a possibility. Personally I would go for the LLD/Himiko/Mastina option if brutally tortured and made to pick one right now.

Opinions?

[Almost50]

I believe we should look at Eli/Panzer/LLD at the moment

Aside from my hard TR on Eli, assuming they're Scum should automatically bring in Himiko precisely because are ignoring his mere existence (or rather none thereof) in the game.

ALSO, Eli being all over LLD and Mulch itching to gladiate her makes it almost impossible for them to be scum together.