Mini Normal 1969 - Blessed Mafia (Werewolf Win)

[Something_Smart]

That doesn't sound very blessed.

[Something_Smart]

Una hangs day one for those terrible puns.

[Something_Smart]

Not even a general overview of the possible roles here?

How am I supposed to know how many motherfuckers we got to throw into our volcano before town wins then?

Not even like 2-2-9 or 2-2-1-8 or 3-10?

That sucks.

It's probably 10:3, with an outside chance of 9:2:2. I hope to God it's not multiball though.

(Flashbacks to Boon's last large game, which Assemble and I were both in. This game is already reminding me of that one.)

[Something_Smart]

Two different scum factions (usually either Mafia and Werewolves or two differently colored Mafia factions). They each work like a normal mafia faction; they have a factional chat and kill, and they need to eliminate both the town and the other scum team.

The reason it is annoying is that the game balance depends heavily on whether the teams kill each other at night, so if they don't, it means we have MORE scum to lynch and FEWER days to do it (since two townies die every night instead of one).

[Something_Smart]

Going to disclaimer here.

I have not been shitposting.

I'm amazed that anyone thought you were tbh.

[Something_Smart]

Sick, now I know Espe's alignment AND role.

[Something_Smart]

The backtrack on the scumread on me and subsequent denial is a scum that got caught completely off guard, fucked up and then didn't want to admit they were wrong.

Actually, this is pretty classic newbtown behavior.

[Something_Smart]

That's the one.

Let's start with a simple question.

Do you believe me?

Espeon, you scummers get day chat or nah?

This is how a noob town accuses someone of being scum?

I usually only see this kind of tone from someone with experience.

I think that only implies enough experience to know what daytalk is. (Which he seems to have with 5 completed games, including one as scum.)

[Something_Smart]

activity is NAI

Not for Ari.

Also hey Boon, pls be town

[Something_Smart]

Boon = Flavor Leaf.

[Something_Smart]

You could start by explaining your Elsa read a bit.

[Something_Smart]

What if I claimed mason. Would you care then?

Why would you claim mason at this stage of the game?

he didn't claim mason, and if he did he'd be clear so you'd have no reason to question him, so there's no point to this.

[Something_Smart]

Only played ToS (town of Salem) before this, so I'm used to the concept of Mafia, but only the quick 20 web browser version.

[Something_Smart]

Also,

@Something_Smart - Thoughts on that Miller claim?

Wayyyyyy more believable than mine was

[Something_Smart]

Because a cop can't clear me.

Actually a cop kinda can clear you, just by existing...

[Something_Smart]

OMG Smart is here!!!! <3

What do you think of all this setup talk from the get go? It makes me question Jaydragon. Feels like they are feigning not knowing what the distribution is! Like, just a bit of am overblown reaction, no?

Hi Ari! You better not lurk this game!

I don't believe that reaction is necessary overblown. Being a ToS player myself, I know that faction ratios are extremely important, and it very well could be that that's just the type of thing they're interested in.

[Something_Smart]

Well, Aristophanes, if somebody was able to be so suspicious that a third of the town has already decided he's evil - and a few of those five think some of the others are scummy - If we DID let him go now, what do you think is likely to happen? That he can magically gain the trust of the town back after such a blundering day 1?

Oh, absolutely he could. I've played games as town where I got to L-1 (lynch minus one, or one vote fewer than the number of votes required to lynch) on day one and ended up surviving until the end and being universally townread.

Scumhunting day 1 is, by and large, very inaccurate, and experienced players will *usually* not get locked into the reads they formed on day 1.

[Something_Smart]

VOTE: Espe

Uzi, Flavor, Chill, you know why.

Yeaaah...

Something_Smart and I pulled off a Mafia victory earlier in the year with a page 1 Miller claim/fake cop claim gambit earlier in the year too, so like, I really don’t like this Miller claim.

You feel tonally similar to that game.

(Of course I'm taking that with a huge grain of salt as that's the only game I've played with you. But it still is a fact.)

And Espe, trust me, I'm aware of that but your claim would still be MORE trustworthy if there is a cop.

[Something_Smart]

So many pedits... can't keep up on phone...

What do you think of this apparent wagon? (Haven't read that far yet.)

I kinda want to hear what you think of it first.

[Something_Smart]

^An excellent song.

[Something_Smart]

Quick. The purpose of parking on a vanity wagon is?

This is dumb. Every wagon is small until it gets big.

[Something_Smart]

Is this a wavering?

A what?

Boon's insistence that this is the same as the other game seems contrived. Was there a call for death there? Was done in a way designed to lead the town? And was it an outright miller claim or was there playing around it to try and make stuff happen?

I never agreed to die. The claim was not done in order to lead the town. I claimed outright, in my first post.

[Something_Smart]

- As in, do you still claim to know my alignment and role.

Since it's now outright stated, yes, I fully believe you to be a town miller.

[Something_Smart]

Okay this back-and-forth is gonna take me a bit of effort to understand.

If you're responding to the post before yours, you shouldn't be quoting anything (unless you're responding to a small part of a long post).

If you're responding to a post further back, you should just highlight the text and not quote the quote too. I'm sure you're both aware of this feature, but for the sake of the rest of us who have to read it, please do that.

[Something_Smart]

THAT MAKES IT WORSE NOT BETTER

[Something_Smart]

Having actually read it, I disagree with that. I think everyone should read it, difficult though you two have made it.

[Something_Smart]

i think its cool that espionage thinks he can solve the game super early. Now i have two things to be excited about... The player lists and the black hole that will form from the combined egos of espionage and flavor leaf being so dense it collapses our very own sun that keeps us warm... should be fun to watch.

Also... Tchill is a prophet.

[Something_Smart]

By the way, Boon in these last few pages feels tonally very different from the game where we were scum together.

[Something_Smart]

Guys I played as miller fairly recently
Just treat the miller as you would with any other player. Judge them on their play. If they act scummy, we pressure them, if they don't, we let em live

Oh my god I'm getting so many flashbacks to the game where I claimed miller as scum LOL.

Every time anyone said something like this, I cheered silently

[Something_Smart]

Lets start this wagon.
VOTE: espeonage

don't like this
seems like you're trying to get people off your wagon and onto esp

I have no doubt that that's what he's doing.

How's it scum motivated?

[Something_Smart]

Dont worry Elsa we'll get to you in day 2. For now, it's esp's turn.

ugh this is so scummy

it really isn't

[Something_Smart]

From espeonage's pov anything that can keep him from getting lynched is what he's hoping for.

you make it sound like he didn't expect people to want to policy him when he claimed miller.

if we wanted to keep from getting lynched, he could have NOT CLAIMED MILLER.

[Something_Smart]

Kind of a shot in the dark here but I feel like scum are a BIT more of a hindrance to town than a miller is.

[Something_Smart]

Ask me in 12 days.

[Something_Smart]

And you know what, I can qualify that even more.

Scummy townies are hindrances to town too. So every lynch will remove a hindrance to town. With a miller, there are other things that can make his claim more or less likely, like the flipping of certain roles (And there are some roles that can still outright clear him, notably rolecop).

Miller is a very tiny hindrance to town once claimed. The only negative result is that if a cop happened to want to investigate him, they wouldn't be able to. That's very minor.

I agree with you that it is, in general, a bad idea to let miller claims live until LYLO. If he begins to show survivalistic tendencies in the next few days, then I may be willing to vote there.

But there's no reason it has to be today.

[Something_Smart]

And you keep framing it as though he's trying to worm his way out of a difficult situation. If scum, he got himself into that situation in the first place. Why would he do that, especially when his softclaim was generally well received?

[Something_Smart]

You just described said survivalistic tendencies in 427, clearly people must be able to detect them or they'd fail in getting people not to lynch him.

Plus, he outright said he'd selfvote tomorrow. If he doesn't, then there's one...

[Something_Smart]

He brought it up himself though.

[Something_Smart]

Yes, he did. So if on Day 2, he says, "actually, you shouldn't lynch me until day 3...", do you think that would be well received?

[Something_Smart]

Coming from one person who's made endgame after fakeclaiming miller to another, I think it's well understood.

But your argument doesn't make sense. You're saying town should lynch him now because they might suddenly become dumb and decide not to lynch him later. If this were a town that would refuse to lynch the miller claim D2 or D3, could you really expect them to lynch it D1?

I don't know if I'm explaining this in the best way, but there's definitely some logical fallacy going on. If you could pick the lynch, you'd probably lynch Espe D2 or D3. But you're assuming that you won't be able to pick the lynch on those days because "anything can happen", so you believe that you can pick the lynch on D1.

Does that make sense?

[Something_Smart]

Why is town in a worse position to lynch scum while Espe is alive?

[Something_Smart]

He's a claimed Miller. A NEGATIVE town utility. Do I think he's scum? He could be. I've explained the motivation if he was. Either way we're lynching a suspect in my book. I'd like for everyone to take a hard stance on this circumstance. I obviously have.

Do you not agree though that at this point the negative utility for town is extremely slight? All it means is that a cop can't check him. But by lynching him we're not removing any negative utility, as a cop certainly can't check him if he's dead.

Why is town in a worse position to lynch scum while Espe is alive?

If I have a "must kill before lylo" list then at some point I'll have to deal with it. Sooner is always better than later in mafia.

That is a self-defeating argument. If we have a choice between options X and Y, then it works equally in favor of doing X sooner rather than later as of doing Y sooner rather than later.

[Something_Smart]

VOTE: WhyMafia

[Something_Smart]

Care to explain the vote, Smart?

because I forgot about his claim. UNVOTE:

[Something_Smart]

Yes.

VOTE: Ari do something pls

[Something_Smart]

What does that mean? Do you have lynches lined up for the first two days already?

[Something_Smart]

SS
Two things
A) Can you respond to why you scum read me
B) Why do you think Ari is viable as a Day 1 Lynch

A. I don't scumread you overall due to your claim. However I scumread (past tense) your recent play as being not very organic and resembling your scum play a lot more closely than your town play.
B. Ari's been lynched Day 1 a lot as scum. I also want to try to get him to give some content so I can read him asap. (And I know what I did wrong in Two-Fold Matrix6. I'll try not to do it again.)

What does that mean? Do you have lynches lined up for the first two days already?

I do. Where do you stand on esp and Elsa?

Both are town.

[Something_Smart]

Also, a brief digression.

I hardclaim...

[Something_Smart]

JACK OF ALL TRADES!

[Something_Smart]

Though considering "Jack of all trades" is the tag under your name, either that is a huge coincidence, Assemble did it purposely, or your joking.

Actually, it's a reference to that. Those titles change with post count, and with that post I reached the post count to get the title "Jack of All Trades".
5000 posts is a lot, so I wanted to commemorate the occasion. It wasn't a real claim.

It seems to have gone over Tchill's head too.

[Something_Smart]

*If my read on town!Esp. is accurate, then

Someone heavily advocating to lynch Esp. today is likely scum

Actually, I disagree. I think that a better conclusion is that someone defending him is likely scum. I think scum would try to avoid being at the forefront of a miller push; they'd try to hide in the background and look like they were just following and it wasn't their fault.

I kind of what to flip Jay.

If they flip scum, it's multiball. Which is good to know.

Bc relationally my scumreads don't make sense together and I have four of them. And it'd be nice to have a chance for them all to be scum at the same time.

Better idea:

If you think Jay scum implies multiball, then singleball would imply Jay town. So leave them alive for now and see if it's multiball first.

(And by the way, UCV, Paint Mafia Mania was an unusually terrible multiball game. Usually, they aren't quite so one-sided, and of course this is a normal so all of the complex mechanics there won't be present here.)

[Something_Smart]

Key word "threat".

What exactly does the existence of a miller claim threaten?

[Something_Smart]

But doesn't everyone else?

[Something_Smart]

So far Everyone else threatens to be a CONFIRMABLE existence of town or scum. You really want to argue technicalities?

Are you saying that it's impossible to confirm Espe as one alignment or the other?

Because that's false.

I'll argue technicalities when they make up the entire crux of your argument, sure.

[Something_Smart]

I think Una is saying that he thinks somebody ELSE is a role that could corroborate Espe.

[Something_Smart]

So far Everyone else threatens to be a CONFIRMABLE existence of town or scum. You really want to argue technicalities?

Are you saying that it's impossible to confirm Espe as one alignment or the other?

Because that's false.

I'll argue technicalities when they make up the entire crux of your argument, sure.

[Something_Smart]

Rolecop, Gunsmith, anything Loyal or Weak

[Something_Smart]

And the existence of a cop would give a lot of credence to the miller claim.

[Something_Smart]

Jay lynch
Arch lynch
Espe lynch
Quick lynch

scum win gg

[Something_Smart]

Not really. I'm just seeing the same lynchbait players being thrown around as scumreads by almost everybody.

[Something_Smart]

The only person I'd call a scumread at the moment is Ari.

[Something_Smart]

Smart who's a scum read besides a low poster you'd rather Lynch Over the Miller?

I don't have any other scumreads.

[Something_Smart]

It's what you would do as either alignment, but I think he takes issue with the shallowness of said feelings.

[Something_Smart]

You were on that wagon for less than a page

[Something_Smart]

Opposition to a wagon is more often than not an indication the slot is Scum.

Lol

[Something_Smart]

Did you read ANY of my several back-and-forths with Tchill?

[Something_Smart]

Not to mention that the burden of proof is on the ones arguing for a policy lynch.

[Something_Smart]

Lynching miller D1 is the STANDARD way you SHOULD deal with that claim UNLESS there is something beyond magical that happens during the day that would override a miller death D1.

Evidence?

I've seen at least 4 games with miller claims and this view was never held by more than a few players, if it was even brought up at all. Even here it's a minority view.

[Something_Smart]

And lets get this strait, you don't NOT lynch a miller claim "because I believe the claim" you don't lynch a miller claim because "there is no doubt in my mind that the miller slot is Town" and if you have that kind of read on Espe at this point you should just quit Mafia right now.

Once again, you can't make claims like this with no evidence.

There are 11 people that I will not end up lynching today. Clearly I can't be positive that they're ALL town. So why should I have to positive that ESPE is town in order to not lynch him?

[Something_Smart]

That feel when your a noob but everyone elsa around you is using meta strategies from having multiple games together.

If I was scum, I really would have been fucked.

If you Mainstays on this site could kindly use evidence from this game instead of previous experience with that player for your case, so someone such as myself can make an informed decision, that would be wonderful.

Hi! Sorry you feel left out!

That stuff is optional, but it does help us get a better perspective. That said, it still is (or should be) combined with evidence from the game. For instance, I scumread Ari because he's not posting a lot and what he does post is shallow and easily faked. This is corroborated by the experience I have with him, but that experience is by no means a requirement for understanding the read.

If you're referring to the miller talk, all you can really do is use your own reasoning. All of us come from different backgrounds and also have different philosophies regarding the game, so there is a lot of talking past each other. In the end it's a matter of opinion anyway.

[Something_Smart]

It's not a policy lynch. There is no burden on my part alone. It is towns burden to Lynch scum and I'm trying to make it as easy as possible. Yes I know opposition means most likely scum that's why I made sure to point that out. Sitting on a vote that will not lead to a Lynch is pointless. If espionage is scum he has partners. I'm forced to try to find them due to the fact no one wants to Lynch espionage. Apparently a Miller claim day 1 is treated the same way a cop claim day 1 is on this site. This is hysterically ridiculous.

This seems to imply that you are absolutely convinced that Espe is scum.

Is that true?

[Something_Smart]

I don't believe that he makes the game mechanically hard to win. Slightly harder, yes, but the only drawback is that a cop has one person who they definitely can't investigate. There is usually more than one good cop target in any given night so that is a very small loss in my opinion. Do you disagree?

The part about not risking another claim day 1 is also valid, though in general that risk is always present. I also see the merit in the argument that he will not be killed by scum, though I think that anyone else who we MIGHT mislynch today is probably not gonna be killed either. Furthermore, lynching a scummy VT is not worse than lynching a towny miller, since the miller if town will continue to contribute to lynching scum and he seems to be a pretty strong player.

Finally, at the very least I think the opportunity cost of leaving him until tomorrow is worth it, since he's a perfect target for a rolecop (and also probably vanilla cop), gunsmith, vig, or any loyal investigative.

I'm starting to see where you're coming from, finally. Do you see where I'm coming from?

[Something_Smart]

As for believing he's scum. I've stated how he could be playing it and I've overstated the opposition to his lynch. So yeah I'm leaning towards he's scum. Why fake claim Miller D1? Because scum wouldn't do that. If you're worth anything as scum you do what scum don't do.

This is a fallacious argument. There are two reasons why he could claim miller Day 1:
1. He is scum going for WIFOM.
2. He is a miller.

You have given reasons why he might claim miller GIVEN THAT he is scum. But what we really want is the probability that he is scum GIVEN THAT he claimed miller, and that requires comparative analysis of the likelihood of (1) versus (2). And I bet if you look at the Mini Normal archives, you'll see more games where town millers claimed day 1 than where scum fakeclaimed miller day 1.

[Something_Smart]

Lynching miller D1 is the STANDARD way you SHOULD deal with that claim UNLESS there is something beyond magical that happens during the day that would override a miller death D1.

Evidence?

I've seen at least 4 games with miller claims and this view was never held by more than a few players, if it was even brought up at all. Even here it's a minority view.

I hold my reasoning ability above the norm, I guess. If you're looking for evidence why I should put such confidence in myself I would tell you I scored better than 93% of people in the Science portion of the ACT which involves interpretation, analysis, evaluation, reasoning, and problem solving. Just so it doesn't look like I am bragging tho, I scored better than only 45% of people in either Reading or English, I can't remember which.

I hold my reasoning ability above the norm too (as do I imagine most people on this site). But that's not what I meant; I wanted proof that this is in fact the standard because in my experience the standard way to deal with a miller is to judge them on play.

And lets get this strait, you don't NOT lynch a miller claim "because I believe the claim" you don't lynch a miller claim because "there is no doubt in my mind that the miller slot is Town" and if you have that kind of read on Espe at this point you should just quit Mafia right now.

Once again, you can't make claims like this with no evidence.

There are 11 people that I will not end up lynching today. Clearly I can't be positive that they're ALL town. So why should I have to positive that ESPE is town in order to not lynch him?

Because the most reasonable play to make if you are not positive of Espe's alignment as Town is to lynch the miller claim for reasons stated by Chill which you haven't actually refuted, but just moved the goal posts. If you want to argue that not lynching Espe is a more correct process, you are going to have to argue why keeping Espe alive for a later time in the game is beneficial to Town given you can't be sure of Espe's alignment. I believe the only possible reasons you can say that Espe shouldn't be lynched at this point is because either there is a legit Scum slip (which you will be hard pressed to convince me of because as I said earlier, I don't believe in slips unless it is blatantly obvious to everyone in the game) or you think you are better at making associations through Espe's play with other players to the degree that you know for certain that the next lynch will not be on Town. That would also require you to lynch Scum D1 as well. Good luck arguing that one.

I don't think I'm the one who moved the goal posts. The aim of a mafia game is to lynch scum. This is an incontrovertible fact. Therefore, without a compelling reason to the contrary, we should lynch the player we think most likely to be scum. I am not positive of his alignment, but I townread him, and I believe we can get a better CHANCE of flipping scum lynching someone else. Arguing that you need certainty is dumb; this is not a game about certainty but about judgements and probabilities.

I want to lynch scum. Espe is not likely scum. Therefore, I don't want to lynch Espe. If I end up lynching town, then I was not WRONG about the probability of that person flipping scum, and mislynching someone else is NOT worse than mislynching Espe. Because whoever we would have lynched had we not lynched Espe would be considered the scummiest person in the town, and would be mislynched the next day.

Why are you even arguing that we should keep Espe around because it only makes it a little harder to solve the game? Why take a harder option at all? Again, you have to be certain that Espe is Town for even your own arguments to even have a barring on whether we keep Espe alive or not.

Because I think he is town. I don't have to be certain he is town; I just have to believe that his odds of flipping scum are lower than other players' odds.

[Something_Smart]

SS clearly has the ability to reason but can't see that his play is a day to day approach while mine focuses on putting town in the best position to win in later day phases. We're not going to Lynch all the scum in the first few days phases. The PROBABILITY of that is very low but that's how you're approaching it. If we Lynch someone else today we still have to deal with espe just like if we lynched espe today we'd still have to deal with the next scummiest.

No, I agree that I am focusing on the short term and you are focusing on the long term. However we just disagree about which focus gives us better odds.

Your presupposition relies on lack of context into what a miller claim is and why it is problematic for Town. You can't reduce it to "lynch the Scummiest player" because even you admit that Espe cannot see LyLo. What I want to know and what you still have not answered, is why is it beneficial for Town to delay lynching a slot that cannot see LyLo given that at the beginning of the game is when we have the least to go on so putting off lynching a miller claim has not only unpredictable results, but that Scum already know if Espe is Town or not which gives them a tactical advantage, so all Scum have to do is observe and react to what Town does in regards to lynching a miller claim rather than forcing a known lynch which forces Scum to have to play a more strategic game rather than a reactionary game rather which forces letting Espe live for an automatic unknown amount of time given that if we are having this conversation now then there is no guarantee that this conversation will not come up tomorrow since it's the fact that you default to leaving your options open rather than going with a strategy that is known to benefit Town in the long run because it eliminates the uncertainty in dealing with a slot that given the nature of the claimed role we will never have any way to confirm them as Town, only confirm them as Scum which makes it a +EV play to lynch Espe in all worlds short of something insane happening.

It is beneficial for town to delay lynching a slot that cannot see LYLO because (a) Espe's contribution may help us to lynch scum while he is alive, (b) a town role that could confirm him could exist, and (c) the game could end before LYLO.

The last few lines are not right. It's not known to benefit town; that's why I asked for evidence since you seem to believe that it's standard site meta to lynch miller claims day 1 but I haven't seen anything that supports that. And there ARE ways to confirm him as town which I've said like 4 times now. What you're writing off as "something insane" is actually "the setup contains a gunsmith, rolecop, vig, or loyal investigative role" which isn't insane.

[Something_Smart]

What the actual hell was that. He was towny, then he replaced out making him obvtown, so you guys decided to lynch him to save the replacement the trouble of replacing into an obvtown slot??

Like I legitimately don't understand how anyone thought he would replace out as scum after going balls-deep in a miller gambit just because a few people were being obstinate.

On an unrelated note,
VOTE: Tchill

[Something_Smart]

No he didn't crumb who he was gonna check. You know why?

Because these morons quicklynched and didn't give him a chance.

By the way, I was very confident he was a miller too. So I do have a right to be pissed.

Also Quick is town.

[Something_Smart]

Or did mafia murder Uzi, but WhyMafia went for someone he trusted and town read so they can prove him tommorow, but they were actually mafia?

Betting on this because I don't think a big targets either one of them and I don't think WhyMafia's role exists if it's multiball or there's an SK.

Based on WhyMafia's ISO, I'm gonna be pissed if he didn't target Tchill.

[Something_Smart]

Don't think a

vig

targets either one of them, thanks autocorrect

[Something_Smart]

preserving the miller for late game situations that benefit scum in the long run is scummier than tunneling the miller day 1.

hey GUESS WHAT

WHYMAFIA WAS A WEAK ROLE

IF WE HADN'T LYNCHED ESPEONAGE HE WOULD BE CONFIRMED TOWN RIGHT NOW

[Something_Smart]

I disagree. I mean there's probably not a full cop, but there very well could be a gated cop (meaning that it can only act on certain nights, or a certain number of times during the game).

Also Una was very likely a Backup Miller, because he claimed to have evidence of the existence of a miller, and because universal backup + miller is quite possibly the dumbest combination of roles you could possibly put in a normal game.

[Something_Smart]

I think Assemble's a smart enough mod to not do that.

[Something_Smart]

Man I am really going to put my foot in my mouth postgame if there actually was a universal backup and a miller.

[Something_Smart]

"So much sense"? Your argument was that it was impossible for Espe to become confirmed town. A role has since flipped which would have been able to confirm him as town.

Your argument was based on a PROVEN FALSEHOOD.

Whatever, I don't want to continue this debate after it's no longer relevant. If Tchill is town he almost single-handedly wrecked this game, and WhyMafia's posts imply a guilty on him too. He is the lynch today.

[Something_Smart]

The day ended before Why got to crumb his target. Therefore, he wanted to NOT die so he could share his results. This implies he'd want to target someone who he townread. Furthermore, since he would be confirmed town to whoever he targeted, he would probably want to target someone who scumread him. And in the worst case, he'd probably want at least SOME way to trace his action. The last content post in WhyMafia's ISO is this:

I never argue to argue with one person. I argue for others to clearly understand my position on a matter. If we don't Lynch the Miller claim on day 1 we start this game off on the wrong foot. My intention was never to convince those who have already made up there mind. It's to convince those who haven't posted or didn't partake. Whymafia you haven't scum hunted at all. When you point one finger there's four pointing back at you.

Tchill ...
I town read you? Your play compared to Quick has a sharp contrast.

Which hits all three criteria pretty easily. Honestly if WhyMafia died targeting anyone else I'm gonna be annoyed with him.

[Something_Smart]

What

[Something_Smart]

Hard claiming that I will be confirmed town tomorrow

So what you meant to say was that "it will be hard claiming I will be confirmed town tomorrow"?

So what you meant to say was that you are...Mafia?
Out of all the factions, whymafia?

...I was sleeping guys.
Seriously, not mafia!
No, not with the pitchforks!

Will do a proper catchup in ~3hours.

Okay, if this is multiball, Una’s town.

Fixed

[Something_Smart]

To be fair, Smart DID ignore the possibility of Mafia going directly for WhyMafia and started the logic train too say it was only possible for Tchill to be the scum. Not himself.

If the scum went after WhyMafia, then how did LUV die?

[Something_Smart]

I do believe I mentioned vigilante or Serial Killer as a viable option in an earlier post. Smart just ignored that part and took running that it was only possible for WhyMafia to have picked a scum when they could have easily read him as an investigative and killed him, with Tchill being a valid scape goat.

I what now?

Or did mafia murder Uzi, but WhyMafia went for someone he trusted and town read so they can prove him tommorow, but they were actually mafia?

Betting on this because I don't think a vig targets either one of them and I don't think WhyMafia's role exists if it's multiball or there's an SK.

Based on WhyMafia's ISO, I'm gonna be pissed if he didn't target Tchill.

Also, congrats UCV

[Something_Smart]

notice how SS isnt debating any of my valid points because all of a sudden tchill wasnt whymafs only TR.

can you read?
I gave 3 reasons for why I think he targeted you. (a) he townread you, (b) you scumread him, (c) you were the last person he talked about.

[Something_Smart]

I'm still shocked there's a fricken thing called a cleric. No wonder he said he'd be confirmed tommorow.

Now here's the million dollar question... How in the hell did he die?

Did mafia attack him first because he said he'd be confirmed day 2, leaving a third party (vig or Sk) to murder Uzi? Or did mafia murder Uzi, but WhyMafia went for someone he trusted and town read so they can prove him tommorow, but they were actually mafia?

--- Post Edit ---

I only did it because he was going to leave. You all saw me going for Archwing the entire time, and then Quick at the end.

I'm also guessing by his tone that UnaBombaH claims Backup turned Miller.

This is the entire post. I specifically explained why I didn't think there was a vig or an SK.

[Something_Smart]

If you claim odd night cop I swear to God.

[Something_Smart]

Gonna need you guys to claim blessed/not blessed in your next posts. Let’s not play this oblivious game and stall it out...

Not blessed though I think that's been obvious.

Why is everyone not acknowledging the fact that i have also turned miller?

What's to acknowledge? I believe we all have acknowledged the fact that you have CLAIMED you turned miller.

[Something_Smart]

I'm a townie. A Vanilla townie at that.

you shouldn't randomly claim as VT. helps scum narrow down PR's.

[Something_Smart]

VOTE: Ari
Town-Ari could be the hero we deserve.

Unfortunately I don't think he's in this game.

[Something_Smart]

What spectrum?

[Something_Smart]

I do know what I think you meant. But I wanted you to explain it because it seemed like you were implying that scum can only be found on one end of the spectrum.

[Something_Smart]

I understand that you, being new, might think that consistency is a towntell. In fact, a lot of more experienced players think that. (Not trying to be patronizing here. Learning what is and isn't alignment indicative is very hard and I made my share of screwups.)

However, it turns out that it's very easy to fake a consistent line of reasoning as scum, whereas when people are actually trying to work out a puzzle, they sometimes change their mind. To stick to what you said earlier even in light of new evidence, just for the sake of consistency, is to entirely miss the point of playing town.

I never stopped thinking Ari was scum, by the way. I thought Tchill was WhyMafia's most likely target, and I still think that, but Tchill's posts recently have been towny and Ari has drifted even further under the radar.

And I didn't try to "cookie cut" your words. I presented what it seemed like you were implying, and if that's not what you meant, then it's on you to explain (as you have now done).

[Something_Smart]

I'm partial to the Fate series tbh

You call this reading up?

[Something_Smart]

I'm not against off-topic discussions (though I am not an anime person myself), but in this case I'm very interested to hear Ari's thoughts on the game.

Ari, how do you feel about Boon and Elsa?

[Something_Smart]

I think Jay/SS are opposite scum teams.

Explain why because I'm pretty sure that (a) it's singleball and (b) we're both town.

[Something_Smart]

Ari, do you think you are conftown?

[Something_Smart]

Technically Ari could have been the scum member who got WhyMafia killed but he openly said Blessed so we'll be less suspicious of him.

It's even simpler than this...

Ari didn't read the flips when he claimed it. He didn't know about the whole blessed massclaim or even what the blessing meant.

As Elsa pointed out, nowhere does it say that scum would not know they are blessed. Ari is not conftown (sorry ) and I believe that WhyMafia died by targeting him.

I think it's singleball because I don't think WhyMafia's role fits with multiball at all. There's a fair bit of intuition in that, but one piece of evidence is that him getting a guilty could screw town over. (i.e. mislynch D1, 2 town death + WM, even if they lynch the guilty it can get to 3:2:1)

[Something_Smart]

Because I don't think it's multiball and I DEFINITELY don't think either of those was a vig.

[Something_Smart]

But like Tchill, you could make me change my mind with content.

[Something_Smart]

How do you know?

[Something_Smart]

Why the fuck do you think i was pushing the blessed/not blessed so hard?

I shot LUV.

Why in the hell would you shoot LUV?

@SS, I was pushing the multiball thing so scum would claim vig. It’s why I was hard pressing it. I’m vig, so I agree with your single ball, but I was doing what I do best and WIFOM’ing the scum. I stated Day 1 that’s what I do. These guys have seen me.

...yet it didn't occur to you that scum would KNOW it's singleball?

[Something_Smart]

Of course Ari wasn't lying. He hadn't even read the game.

[Something_Smart]

Up now.

And why the hell did you vote me? Jesus man. What were you going to do, Lynch me then shoot one of your other reads?

I'm not ever pushing for you because you may be the last power townie we got, but going for me isn't the best thing.

It was only a vote. It was only a vote. Jealousy, she takes off her dress and...

Get back in your cage

[Something_Smart]

If our vote wasn't already on you Smart, We'd vote you for that.

Which reminds me- you never responded to my long post about your vote.

Did you not read it? Or did you not see anything in there worth discussing? (For reference, the post is 942)

[Something_Smart]

Fair enough. Just don't let yourself get limited by it.

[Something_Smart]

Your need to justify the amount of sense your role makes in the setup is worrying. Not sure but I think you did stuff like that in Chocolate Mafia.

[Something_Smart]

My very first post, before the game had even officially started, was a setup for my most blatant crumb.

Rule 5 has been edited. "Bah" posts are no longer allowed.

I think BAHs are over-appreciated anyway..!

Baths on the other hand..

I then waited for a good spot to implement my crumb without it being too obvious:

I'll stop spamming now,

you'll find me the tub

when we can get to playing.

Not a typo, didn't miss a "in" there.
I am your TUB - TownUniversalBackup.

Lol I approve of this crumb.

Ironically this makes me trust you less as this means you committed to a UB claim before such a claim would make you a miller. I still think you're town, though I stand by my belief that miller + UB is an awful combination. (I am curious though. How often do you lay crumbs like that as scum?)

[Something_Smart]

There couldn't be a backup cleric because mods are only allowed one greylist role per game.

[Something_Smart]

Hey Assemble, regardless of Elsa's alignment, you shouldn't do stuff like that. Even if it is something you would do whether they were town or scum, the players don't know that and they might try to read into it.

[Something_Smart]

Explain what you mean by that.

[Something_Smart]

I'm not going to be lynched. I don't know how difficult it will be to convince Tchill of that, however.

You must see the flaws in his argument, right? He is claiming that I was acting on a long-term scum plan by defending Espe on the premise that he could be confirmed, which was true, while Tchill himself pushed to lynch Espe on the premise that such a confirmation was impossible, which was false.

[Something_Smart]

I'd rather you shot scum.

I shouldn't have to state that.

[Something_Smart]

YOU were ACTING like that was your case while pushing to use the miller late game to put town between a rock and a hard place. throwing town into a difficult situation late game of lynching the miller claim or super suspicious scum candidate? a miller confirmation is FALSE. all you can do is hint towards the validity of a miller you can not CONFIRM a miller UNTIL THE FLIP. thats my point. this has already been established. you are flat out lying.

Are you saying that Espe wouldn't have been confirmed if WhyMafia had targeted him?

Also, you're begging the question by assuming that I'm scum and then explaining a potential motivation for my actions. However that does not address the possibility that I am town and have made the actions I did. The only thing you have to say on that matter is something about how you can't imagine anyone actually believing it might not be right to lynch the miller day 1 which quite frankly sounds dogmatic to me in how you completely refuse to consider any other point of view.

[Something_Smart]

Pretty sure that claim was a joke.

[Something_Smart]

I can think of two instances right off the top of my head where I said something shouldn't be in the game and it ended up being in the game. And while in both cases as well as this one I stand by that claim, clearly mods do not always agree with me.

But Una... why would we lynch Boon today? If he's scum, that practically confirms Ari as scum as well, so we might as well lynch Ari and give Boon a chance to prove himself tonight.

[Something_Smart]

Ari's not conftown even if Boon is town.

[Something_Smart]

Because you just hammered a wagon with 0 resistance without any deliberation?

[Something_Smart]

Thanks
VOTE: Ari

[Something_Smart]

Important note to everyone who is not as familiar with normal games:

Flavor's claim is explicitly non-normal. According to the normal guidelines, a traitor is not part of the main scum group, and the main scum group must consist of at least two members.

[Something_Smart]

Is that directed at me? Why would I do that?

[Something_Smart]

You claimed a confirmable role in an effort to get people to investigate you?

[Something_Smart]

Because if you're town you're putting in WAY less effort than I know you're capable of.

That includes the blatantly anti-town action of quickhammering Dunker.

[Something_Smart]

It's MYLO, not LYLO, so we don't have to worry about quickhammers with just one vote.

Elsa, you should remove any references to ongoing games in your signature.

[Something_Smart]

What exact result did you get? No actions were performed on me?

[Something_Smart]

EE:

What exact result did you get? No actions were performed on me?

[Something_Smart]

And you know how that's different from a "no result", right?

I just really want to make sure nobody messes up role stuff like that because I've seen it happen.

[Something_Smart]

See, this is why you double check these things.

And all you voting Flavor, stop and vote Ari instead. Ari has to be scum for Boon to be scum, but the reverse isn't true.

[Something_Smart]

Are helping Boon get a mislynch.

[Something_Smart]

Boon what exact role are you claiming? Are you still pretending to be a traitor?

[Something_Smart]

Scum didn't block EE. I did. That's why I was needling him about the no result.

So he's definitely an investigative of some kind, because he knew he was blocked.

[Something_Smart]

And if he's really a town voyeur like Occam's Razor says he probably is, then that's already 5 town PR's, and there's no room for Boon. Of course this is assuming Boon retracts his scumclaim anyway.

[Something_Smart]

So you're claiming town gunsmith?

[Something_Smart]

How do you think two kills happened Night 1 then?

[Something_Smart]

"I know Ari is town"

"There's an SK somewhere"

SK doesn't have a gun...

[Something_Smart]

There's no way in hell this game is balanced as 9:2:2. Fire and Ice is balanced with only a town doctor. If your claim is true, town can produce 3 hard innos night 1 as well as have a backup if either of the investigatives die, not even considering my role which can screw over a scum who's lost their partner.

[Something_Smart]

Do you think Ari could be a traitor or a scum doctor?

[Something_Smart]

Technically, I am.

[Something_Smart]

What was your slot's N1 action?

[Something_Smart]

Hey Boon.

Why did you want to policy lynch the miller if you could literally clear him.

[Something_Smart]

That doesn't make it better. You were the one who pushed to quicklynch him and if not for you his slot probably would not have been lynched.

[Something_Smart]

Like, if you were a gunsmith, I'd expect you to be hard against lynching the miller day 1 instead of ambivalent like you were. And I certainly wouldn't expect you to ever support it, even under the circumstances of the replace-out.

[Something_Smart]

Here's what I'm thinking. The situation that I want to avoid is the one where it's 5:3 today and we mislynch. That's basically game over unless I manage a miracle save which would just be luck.

Since there is no vig, if Ari is town, it HAS to be multiball. (For the purposes of this argument, I am considering the existence of an SK to be multiball.) That's why we should lynch Ari today. If he's town, it forces scum/SK to try to kill scum or risk losing to the other scumteam. If he's scum, Flavor is likely scum too. Either way, we won't lose immediately, and I think at this point Ari and Flavor have an equal chance of flipping scum.

[Something_Smart]

The logic is not flawed. It is true that multiball/SK raises the possibility of me having blocked EE making a kill. (Though, even then, it's not the ONLY possibility: Una could have been double shot, or a BP SK could have been hit, or a scum doctor/roleblocker could have stopped the other.) However, the logic was simply that Ari town implies multiball, which has nothing to do with EE.

Though EE is not an SK. He knew he was roleblocked.

[Something_Smart]

Who's your third neighbor?

[Something_Smart]

When did Ari claim?

[Something_Smart]

Wait a minute. Tchill claimed vig??

[Something_Smart]

Waiting for Tchill to confirm everything you just said.

[Something_Smart]

What's your real role and how is EE conf scum?

[Something_Smart]

This is at Boon obviously.

[Something_Smart]

And who did Tchill shoot at N2?

[Something_Smart]

Who did Tchill shoot at last night? Can he shoot tonight?

[Something_Smart]

I don't care as what alignment he does it. I want to know if he can prove himself if we NL.

[Something_Smart]

And Boon you do realize that if it's singleball and Ari is town, Tchill has to be town too, right?

[Something_Smart]

I said if it's singleball. As long as multiple killing factions remain we have a chance to survive a mislynch, so that's not the scenario I'm worried about.

[Something_Smart]

And you seem to think it's singleball given that you're looking for exactly 3 scum and you seem to be ascribing a cohesive motivation to all of them.

[Something_Smart]

Here's the thing: miller is considered a PR whether it has positive utility for town or not. I don't believe the game contains a gunsmith and a vig in addition to my role and the three flipped. Tchill may actually be a vig, but I think Ari is scum regardless. There's nothing role-related that gives you a reason to locktown him, and his play has been lackluster to say the least. So why do you think he's town?

[Something_Smart]

I left out the voyeur claim because the truth or falsity of his claim does not depend on or affect another claim the way the other two do.

And you know as well as I do that "he had no reason to" is a bullshit argument. Scum fakeclaim for no other reason than to gain trust, and claiming an inno on a neighbor sounds like a great way to pocket said neighbor. (You did something very similar to what he's doing in Chocolate Mafia.)

[Something_Smart]

UNVOTE:
My current thought is to no-lynch and have Tchill shoot Ari. I don't see Ari and Tchill both being town.

[Something_Smart]

You think that there could be a setup that could have 4 confirmed towns by D2?

[Something_Smart]

Cleric can produce 2 clears. Gunsmith can basically clear someone, and vig is cleared upon claiming.

[Something_Smart]

Also Tchill in all the arguing you've done you've yet to give any explanation for why my actions are unlikely to come from town.

[Something_Smart]

Explain all of those. Particularly the last three though.

[Something_Smart]

It sounds like you think Ari is town because you think he's town.

And Quick did lurk out eventually but I thought it was pretty obvious he believed in what he was pushing for. A whole lot more than Ari, anyway.

I believe you are right to not believe all the PR claims. But EE and I cannot be suspicious because of what Boon did; we'd simply be suspicious because there are too many PR claims and you trust the others. Which one again boils down to, why DO you trust Ari? The reason you gave was just circular logic.

[Something_Smart]

I would do that if we could.

[Something_Smart]

VOTE: Ari
This is the right move. Game is stalling. This guarantees that we won't lose today as if he flips town then it's multiball or Tchill can shoot scum to keep us in the game.

I believe that Quick was fighting for what he believed in when he was arguing to lynch the miller, and I think that makes EE town. Plus he is confirmed to be an investigative, since he knew he was blocked, and there is very little resistance to his wagon.

This is a notable similarity with Dunker, whom I was rapidly coming around on as town due to the utter lack of people who seemed to want him alive.

Ari's hammer seemed very much to be taking advantage of this opportunity, and in my (extensive) experience with him I'd expect him to be more cautious as town.

Pretty much every major wagon this game has been a bad one, based on shallow reasons that have left me very frustrated with whoever happens to be town who went along with them. Now EE might be scum but regardless his wagon is based on very similar shallow reasons and therefore is a bad wagon. I have yet to see a decent argument as to why he is scum. So I believe that our downfall is likely to be passive townies who take what they've been given without questioning.

If anyone is confused by this, PLEASE ENGAGE ME! Of course I will be busy over the next few days because of Christmas, but after that I will try my best to get people to see my point of view. Especially since I have a suspicion that most of the passive players here are town.

[Something_Smart]

You've provided a decent enough case against lynching EE, but I think scum!you would say exactly what you just said to save scum!EE.

Maybe so, but there are two possibilities here: either Tchill is scum with us, and the three of us carried out the most ridiculous and unnecessary scum theater ever, or he is vig/SK/opposite scum, in which case I'd be practically asking to be shot which would lead to EE certainly dying afterward.

[Something_Smart]

The problem is that Tchill might not be a vig. If Ari is scum, then Tchill could also be scum covering for him, in which case an EE lynch would likely lose us the game. However, if we lynch Ari and he flips town, then Tchill is confirmed to have at least SOME killing ability and he can direct that toward EE.

[Something_Smart]

There could be two scum in a neighborhood if one is a traitor.

Also, from my point of view there's a decent chance that the neighborhood is just the scumteam. In any event if Ari is town then Tchill can, and should, take a shot for scum no matter his alignment. And as long as Ari flips any kind if neighbor, it clears you, which will be enormously helpful in LYLO

Pedit: this doesn't take into account those last two posts. will respond to them now.

[Something_Smart]

Also, you didn’t make it difficult for people to see that you were implying he was blocked, so when he restated his result from his original statement, it isn’t as confirmed a thing as you were saying. My biggest issue was Ari claiming gunsmith and no result, which is also why you are town. As scum, that’s a crappy way to play it. Ari’s just town who got a no result. Ari should target Tchill and Tchill should target Ari. That way, scum has to make some kind of play anyways, and if Tchill is SK, he can get screwed over. That would make us a SK/Mafia/Town Neighborhood, which actually, I could see, but EE goes first to get to that situation. You have your roleblock, so that’s a good chance at blocking a person. Jay is town. SS is town. UC would only be groupscum, Archwing would be group scum. EE is groupscum.
Ari/Tchill are Mafia/SK if it’s not singleball, meaning it’s completely better to go EE first, as night actions will confirm everything, or at least let us see what’s happening.

This is all resting on the premise that Ari is town, though. Why do you think that?

[Something_Smart]

You’re protecting EE really hard, which is weird because I feel he is clearly scum.

Ditto you with Ari.

[Something_Smart]

That's your prerogative to change, you know.

[Something_Smart]

Let me live till day 4 and we'll see if that's true then.

Not up to me. I’m not moving off of EE today.

That sounds an awful lot like it is up to you

[Something_Smart]

You mean, your collective Christmas present to the scum.

[Something_Smart]

Have you read ANYTHING I've said today?

[Something_Smart]

Not hammering.

Someone should unvote now.

[Something_Smart]

So are lynch pool is EE, tchill, boon, SS, myself, Arch?

If Ari flips scum you're hanging next.

[Something_Smart]

Wait a minute, why would Ari ever check Tchill?

[Something_Smart]

Wait am I up for lynch?

I really am trying here, I just need one more day!

Only if I were a quintuple voter...

[Something_Smart]

Well, we have a vig claim. So the game would still continue no matter what.

Also, the full force of Boon's logic in 1539 finally hit me. It would have been much easier to understand if you'd said "lynched" rather than "killed". But he has a point... unless all 3 scum are on EE's wagon, they've had numerous chances to hammer him and have not taken them.

Ari, if you have the time, could you summarize the posts in the neighborhood in as much detail as you can? Preferably asap.

[Something_Smart]

Thanks

I'm also requesting that Boon and Tchill not post in the neighborhood (if it is open) until this is done.

[Something_Smart]

Okay so here's the thing. I'm basically down to two possibilities. Ari's neighborhood summary was reasonable but nothing special, and it's a little surprising that he didn't mention ANY reads being discussed in the neighborhood. So my belief is this:

either EE is scum, or all three neighbors are scum and the neighborhood is completely made up.

The problem is that in the latter case, an EE lynch loses us the game 67% of the time (I have to guess the scum member doing the kill to keep us in the game), even more if they have a strongman or an RB.

Whereas, if the neighborhood is not all scum, Tchill and Boon are both town most likely. (Or Tchill is SK, but I'm counting that as town because mafia are the big threat right now.) That means that Tchill can shoot scum to keep us in the game if we mislynch.

And for all of you newer players who are not as familiar with Boon: this is ABSOLUTELY a gambit he would pull as scum. I don't think he would deny that if asked.

[Something_Smart]

I don't think this is flipping scum. If he wanted to selfhammer he would have done so long ago.

If this flips town, Tchill please shoot Ari.

[Something_Smart]

You just want Tchill to not shoot you, Smart.

That is correct, I do want us to not instantly lose.

[Something_Smart]

Though actually, I don't know why I'm bothering, because I'm pretty sure that if EE is town the team is just Tchill/Flavor/Ari.

[Something_Smart]

I honestly felt like I was talking to a brick wall pretty much the entire game.

[Something_Smart]

Thanks. It didn't really end up mattering because all you had to do was get ANY kill through, but if we had lynched Ari it might have ended up mattering.

It's funny that you RB'd EE in the same night though

[Something_Smart]

On a serious note I don't understand why you wouldn't Lynch Miller day 1.

Let's see... we would have had two more mislynches to work with, two confirmed town players by day 2, and the UB likely inheriting town's strongest PR...

Nah, I don't understand it either.

[Something_Smart]

The two players I most wanted to be town with this game were scum

And the town player I enjoyed playing with the most was lynched day 1...

[Something_Smart]

Gee, it's almost as if there was someone telling you he was scum the whole game...

[Something_Smart]

I really should have pushed Ari's neighborhood summary as obviously bullshit, since I did catch that he didn't mention reads being discussed AT ALL. I don't think it would have made a difference though.

[Something_Smart]

I noticed that you thought I was a gunsmith; that was more or less my plan. When I said "I know Espe's role" I (like Ari) thought he was a BG, but after he claimed miller I realized I could spin it into a cop crumb, so I spent the rest of the day implying that I was a cop (hence me putting so much emphasis on "maybe there's another role that will make miller make more sense"). I switched to JK kind of on a whim when EE claimed to have checked me.