ok, so, people voting Mulch are:
Me (technically, subject to my findings I'll put my vote back...)
Mulch
Sky
TIAM
acryon (is on the last vote count on page 27.)
notes:
Jodaxq - not opposed to a mulch lynch as per
page 28
right so lets look at how each player came to those votes:
Me - At first, I figured Derpy has a highly weak reason to go for Mulch's slot so militantly, although he has eased off that stance slightly towards the latter parts of this thread which is good to hear. However, I know people think you shouldn't lynch a PR claim, but no one has really pressured it in depth. Perhaps it is too early to do so, but I think it's something we need to think about tomorrow. Anyway, this post isn't supposed to be about Derpy, I'm looking at Mulch. He came straight into the game to be told he is going to die tonight regardless, despite Derpy easing off a bit as I've mentioned he has still not engaged much in the game. Given his interesting claim of even night cop, I think we will spend a lot of time overthinking his role. If we do keep him here and he reads someone who is alive by Day 3, is anyone going to trust it? I'm not. So happy for him to go and maybe we can get some positive action out of Derpy as an additional benefit.
Sky - Looking at his big analysis post
here I find it interesting that he considered my policy lynch of Derpy one of the less significant interactions as he spoilered it to skip past it.
Then in the next analysis post he points out my lynch on Derpy is logical. So twice he has acknowledged that policy lynches have a purpose, which means no alarm bells when Sky gets involved in a policy lynch. What I am saying is I doubt this is a scum bus.
So, given the final post from sky is that he is voting for Mulch because we didn't follow his BuJaber logic and he also believes there is some sound logic in policy lynchs which i found in my analysis above. I am going to give this a town read.
TIAM - He has early on given Mulch a scum card by linking him with me. So we can say at this point TIAM thinks he is voting scum legit.
He also contests the PR claim.
He doesn't like BuJabers rolefishing which is a good thing, but he doesn't want to put his money where his mouth is and lynch the fakeclaiming Mulch
Tries to justify with Acryon that he doesnt have to vote Mulch despite thinking he is scum and fake claiming.
#474 thinks the risk of lynching a potential cop is worth saving for later
#482 suggests DH might change his mind on his Vig shot. I did check Derpy's ISO and he mentions fairly on that he would not shoot if we lynch town (post #228) so this changes things for me because I missed this earlier. I didnt see Derpy relent until much later.
Then TIAM eventually decided to vote Mulch
Conclusion, it's fairly sound that TIAM has voted for a fakeclaim and someone he is scum reading, but thus far, he is the only player scum reading and not policy lynching which is something I am going to keep in my mind.
Acryon - his first post, is 10 pages in - then jumps straight in with a Mulch vote.
Says early claims are bad, agreed. Says it's unlikely 2 PRs will go head to head so soon, agreed.
He also points out the policy aspect of it - we lynch mulch, meaning DH wont shoot at random, which potentially saves a town life.
He disputes TIAMs point that there comes a point where we should kill Derpy if he is a SK killing loads of townies.
Specifically says he does not believe the cop claim from Mulch
He says his secondary lynch target would be TIAM for 2 points TIAM made which in my opinion, TIAM made using sound logic.
see here and click the links Acryon provided
He also suggests maybe BuJaber as an alternative and doesnt elaborate.
Seems confident DH wont shoot if we lynch town, then follows up with another post to justify it
Doesnt want a no lynch scenario.
queries Derpys wont shoot if we lynch town policy.
Mulch - I'd like Mulch to consider that Derpy has actually eased off his 'you are 100% dead stance' (a bit) it would be useful for you to read the game in a positive way because there is a chance you could convince people you should stay imo. I missed post 228 where he said he wouldnt shoot if we lynch town, so maybe you did too. I'm not saying we should lynch a town to keep you in the game
I know I keep going on but I'll also summise what I think of Derpy at this point, I think it is fair to say he is relevant when it comes to Mulch discussion:
-He is fairly determined to remove Mulch from the game, but his lynch is not on him.
-He has made a few nods to say he will not shoot if we lynch a town today.
-Mulch is likely to survive the night, because his claim gives him no info tomorrow, therefore scum are likely to target Derpy, therefore he has to be super confident in his scum!Muclh read otherwise he will not get his shot before he dies. In my opinion, his reasoning for his scum read is super weak, it is also day 1 so no one is really confident of anything. I'm not sure if Derpy is trying to confuse the scum or if he is scum.
So in conclusion, Sky and TIAM are definitely getting passes from me because their analysis thus far seem logically sound. Even TIAM voting for me is ok because no one knows anything yet, people are going to get stuff wrong, but him moving to Mulch is him standing by his scumread convictions which is a good thing I think.
Acryon is really confusing me, everything he says is logically sound... but! Thus far, he has only really directed us towards Mulch. If you read his ISO, you could suggest he has come into the game a bit later on (and I know it's xmas etc) which has given him a position to look at the game and see which direction it has already taken. He has taken some steps to appeal to those who think policy lynching Mulch is a positive move and he has also taken steps to appeal to those who just think Mulch is scum. He also softly suggested TIAM and BuJaber are perhaps other lynch targets but his reasoning for TIAM was pants (see above - TIAM is right in saying Scum will statistically mislynch, that's their job! Also, if Derpy kept shooting 'wrong' players, we probably should lynch him. Although that would be subject to his justification and how the game panned out.
Posts #536 and #537 also rang alarm bells with me, #536 is a Hawk quote saying Acryon has assumed DH wont shoot and he just says "I don't think he will." then #537 is a follow up justifying the scenario where it's basically the same as if we lynch someone else who flips town, the Derpy shoots anyway. Whilst that is true, I was reading with a biased narrative where there is a DH/Acryon link and Acryon knew DH wouldnt shoot, but then found a logical reason to justify it after stating it. Perhaps a scumslip.
In conclusion, I'd like people to consider what I've said about Acryon and discuss. I'm not confident enough to put my vote back on Mulch as I feel like we've been lead there - I also believe something weird is going on with Derpy's claim, more than I believe something is wrong with Mulch's claim. Reason - Derpy said in post 228 he wouldn't shoot if we lynch town. I know we are going with 'rage claims' but if you are a PR you dont put yourself in a position where you are likely to die before you make any use out of your power. Derpy will obviously say my argument is irrelevant because Mulch is scum, but his reasons are that he has forced himself into a position where he can just say 'Policy: lynch all liars' so something is really fishy here.
If we are lynching a PR today, I'd prefer Derpy over Mulch.
If we are not, I'd like to discuss the points I've raised over Acryon.
Can we please not lynch the cop until we have some evidence that counters Mulch's claim (i.e. come day 3)?
