Team Mafia 2018: Inventions Mafia Day 4

[mastina]

The good news is, I'm back from tae kwon do.
The bad news is, I severely injured my back during tae kwon do--I need time to recover since there's a lot I can't do right now. (Even with ibuprofen, it's immensely painful even to just breathe, and it's much much much worse when I try to move my left arm, so I'm typing at half speed more or less.) In other words, can't be around tonight, need to take the night off.

Will be back tomorrow, hopefully healed. (And if not might be visiting the doctor.)

[Katyusha]

@katyusha did you still want more on Math's hider theory thoughts btw? anything in particular? He's been writing a bunch of stuff in The Discord about how having 2 confirmed townies alive on D2 townsides the setup and there's more risk in giving hider to a problematic slot or openly selecting targets. he did say earlier we could settle on just taking Reck up on the hide behind chesskid plan as a matter of policy if it gets rid of "drama llamas". Overall though his main position is that everyone is scumclaiming by not electing Creature because there's no town incentive not to

i mostly wanted him to i guess explain in depth why raybells's original argument for giving it to a lesser scumread was wrong

i'll quote it for convenience hang on

pedit: mastina

[Katyusha]

I think that we potentially want to give hider to the third scummiest player to check the second scummiest player and lynch the scummiest.
That way we know who the result is on no matter what without risking someone dying.

We can always lynch the second scummiest player if we're concerned they're scum and then confirm the result that way.

But with hider if the hider dies by targeting scum or getting shot we don't know what the actual result was unless it's public, and if it's public we gamble with the hide.

like i agree with the logic in getting a guaranteed result, and if scum find having two conftown to be a difficult obstacle they can always shoot whoever is being cleared (i'm assuming the target will be crumbed or even outright claimed, if this is a bad assumption let me know). im not sure if scum will deliberately try to pick a nightkill target tonight based on who would be a plausible hide target in any scenario so i dont know if not knowing the actual result part is an issue or not

basically i kind of want a more clear counter argument i guess? im shit with mechanics and my teammates arent strong in that regard so someone like mathdino or davesaz is absolutely someone i want to reach out to

[GuiltyLion]

like i agree with the logic in getting a guaranteed result, and if scum find having two conftown to be a difficult obstacle they can always shoot whoever is being cleared (

i'm assuming the target will be crumbed or even outright claimed, if this is a bad assumption let me know

)

. im not sure if scum will deliberately try to pick a nightkill target tonight based on who would be a plausible hide target in any scenario so i dont know if not knowing the actual result part is an issue or not

basically i kind of want a more clear counter argument i guess? im shit with mechanics and my teammates arent strong in that regard so someone like mathdino or davesaz is absolutely someone i want to reach out to

ah I think the main thing is this bolded section, he's of the opinion (and I agree) that when the hider is known they should never broadcast their target in any way, the low risk high reward play is to aim for two confirmed townies the next day. if you assume town lynch on D1 there's still a 77% chance of the hider picking town, higher if hider has good reads and they aren't being forced to give them. When you look at a game state where Creature's alive D2 with a clear that narrows scum's mislynch trajectories further, it seems like pretty clearly the best thing to go for instead of trying to land a coinflip guilty where assuming the hider is town then in the best case scenario they're automatically dead as a result and the more likely scenario is you just have two dead townies on D2, even before mentioning the worthless case where scum get the hider and just "clear" whoever they were forced to target.

also, mathdino wants me to ask exactly how you know that he is good at mechanics? He says he's never played with you or any of your teammates

[Katyusha]

I tend to read shorter sentences first so i havent actually read the main meat of that post but

I follow like almost every single game on site and have had a generally good impression of math from some of the last games i saw from him (the JK9++ and the newbie with lego and the worst). i think i even commented in the endgame of one of them?

[Katyusha]

ah I think the main thing is this bolded section, he's of the opinion (and I agree) that when the hider is known they should never broadcast their target in any way, the low risk high reward play is to aim for two confirmed townies the next day. if you assume town lynch on D1 there's still a 77% chance of the hider picking town, higher if hider has good reads and they aren't being forced to give them. When you look at a game state where Creature's alive D2 with a clear that narrows scum's mislynch trajectories further, it seems like pretty clearly the best thing to go for instead of trying to land a coinflip guilty where assuming the hider is town then in the best case scenario they're automatically dead as a result and the more likely scenario is you just have two dead townies on D2, even before mentioning the worthless case where scum get the hider and just "clear" whoever they were forced to target.

OK, I think I get where this is coming from.

I think my issue was that I was seeing the hider as basically a weaker cop in that could really be used to investigate anyone, but when you consider it as something used to confirmed town rather than get any sort of read that changes entirely. This helped a lot.

elect: creature

[Aneninen]

Finally, some time.
I'm going along with the ISOs but first I'm asking: since I haven't read the new pates, is there anything new I should respond to immediately?

[CheekyTeeky]

Finally, some time.
I'm going along with the ISOs but first I'm asking: since I haven't read the new pates, is there anything new I should respond to immediately?

What do you think about a Hinduragi and Chesskid lynch?

[Katyusha]

Finally, some time.
I'm going along with the ISOs but first I'm asking: since I haven't read the new pates, is there anything new I should respond to immediately?

i dont remember seeing any outstanding questions for you

reck wagon moved onto hindu and will probably move onto chess since i think im the only one that feels more strongly about hindu being scum than chess lmao

pedit: i mean i guess i could have just asked it as a question!

[Aneninen]

As for Chesskid, I'm not sold on him. My reasons were expressed in my post about him. I also asked my team about him but so far there hasn't been an answer. The Hider may target him, I guess.

No opinion about Hinduragi yet, so I'll start with him.

[Aneninen]

So, let's see

Hinduragi

.

His eintritt was a vote for Srceenplay in 29, along with a question: "How is firebringer as scum/town or what are his alignment preferences?" – which means he

had

read the game then and gave an RVS (? not sure). This is something we should remember if either him or Srceenplay flips scum. I mean, I can imagine it easily that a scum throws an RVS on one of his buddies. But now, it's null in itself. He was on that swap-topic a bit more later. And this lead to a townread on Reckoner in 75? I can't see how these add up.

Knowing RC's scumhunting his 81 "Noone's scared of RC" might be important

if

they've played together before. If so and he's scum now, I guess he may be

damm scared

of RC's scumhunting.

90 is a bit off after his townread on Reckoner. It looks like he's tiptoe-ing around that wagon, just in case. (No alignment information on Reckoner, though.) 96 confirms this. He seems to be ready for getting

any kind of

read on Reckoner. 101 too! First he expressed a townread on Reckoner, then he stated it was only a gut feeling and he wasn't defending him. Eiao? If someone has a townread, shouldn't they be against the lynch of a townie?

A townread on RC out of nowhere in 134. Appeasing him maybe???

More stuff about Reckoner, same style as above. And this!

Also mastina, I really want you to be town because I think you're a good person.

¹ I've only got townreads for now on Creature, RC, Reck, Katy, and

idk who else it was.

² I'm going to eat.

(1) Oh My Gods! It doesn't work in that way. Whether you like someone or not has

nothing

to do with their alignment! Zero correlation! Zilch! Yet again, what if he tries to prevent clashing with Mastina?
(2) That's not scumhunting! That's pigeon poop! Either he has a townread on someone or he has no read – even if he's actually about to find townies. I don't know doesn't make any sense. (Especially in a context where he

did

have time to express things about Reckoner!)
(3) No scumreads. Not a f-cking scumread at all!

573, 581 are the same. He's blatantly trying to prevent/avoid (?) conlficts. A good townplay is

not

about that! Scum need to have as few enemies in a game as they can!

Anyone, for 619 "But trying to rush the quicklynch is god awful" – was that actually a real threat at that time?

666 It could be merely my intuition but now I strongly feel that he

is

afraid of RC!

687 makes no sense.

In 693 he says (again) Reck's town. Then unvotes? His vote had been on Srceenplay 'till then. This doesn't add up.

Without examining it's context, what he quoted in 707 may or may not have been genuine, but the same goes for his reaction and his vote. Also, am I right?

Was Cheekin his first scumread ever?

808 "Don't convince Katy please.

I want to live past N1.

" – That's not how this game is played. Unless you have a town-PR (which is not possible right now in this Setup), townies

must

be ready to die any time if they can take a scum with them into non-existence in any way. (Or at least, I play like this.)

In 825 he votes for me and he

didn't even mention

me in that post. As far as I can remember at that time voting for me was

definitely

not about putting some pressure on a player.

His vote for Yoshi in 1291 was just as terrible. All that he said was (and is) 100% unconfirmable. And yet again, it's not about building up pressure.

1333 is seriously off assuming I've examined the context carefully.


TL;DR – All I can see is that he's trying to maintain a good relationship with everyone,

without doing ANY scumhunting

. He only has townreads, one of his scumreads (Yoshi) is backed only by facts told him by his team and the other one (Aneninen) has never been explained.
I haven't read what others posted on him so I don't know what they found. But this I've expressed right above

alone

tells me that he's

scum

trying to keep away from trouble all the time.

[CheekyTeeky]

Wow that's great posting there pigeon! Any reason why you're waiting to vote?

[Aneninen]

I guess I have time for another player, which's going to be

Katyusha

.

Her early-content is quite empty, apart from the fact that she wasn't sold on the case against Reckoner. Plus speculations on the way we should use the Hider. Pretty much null.

Was two fluffposts enough for her for a vote on me in 111? Could be. Did she join a wagon because she hoped a quicklynch as scum or wanted to see my reactions on the wagon as town? Both are possible.

149 might have been about low self-confidence or might have come from a scum keeping on trying to fly under the radar.

(Meanwhile, Katyusha, do you remember our conversation about Hindu? In the post above you can find more answers. The difference is: right now I spent more time on the game than I was able to at that time.)

I don't know which list she was talking about in 248.

Her posts around 260 look okay. I remember having problems with that earlier, but checking the whole ISO of her, it seems to be natural to her playstyle after all. Later I found similar interactions with others, eg. RadiantCowbells.

I don't know where here townread on me in 362 came from. I thought she had been scumreading me.

And I don't get the read on Mastin in 774. I mean, have we agreed yet how we the Hider should use? If not, it looks weak as a case.

Still, I can see a townie behind her readlist, 789. Assuming she missed a couple of things while she was reading. And partly gut. And her 847 would make very little sense as scum. I've seen townies doing the same kind of "reset" before. Her vote for Reck and her reasoning shows that she

genuinely

started over everything from scratch.

Answering your question in 990, what you posted is a possibility. But Reck's not a priority for me right now.

Not sure what to think of her 1494. (Sheeping townie? Opportunistic scum? No idea.) On the other hand, the finding in 1527 matches my thoughts, only she phrased them differently. (Or I mis-read what she'd wanted to say. Check above!)

TL;DR – though there are some disturbing bits, eg. in her read progressions, I can see a townie behind most of her posts. My all-aroud gut says the same.

Lean town

.

[Aneninen]

Cheeky, I wanted to check one more ISO first. Then I wanted to have a VC too to avoid an accidental Hammer or L–1. (When I was playing a lot, there were a lot of Lolhammers, which was terrible.) But if I've added the votes correctly, it's not L–1 with me, so

UNVOTE:
VOTE: Hinduragi

Srceenplay, you're still not under the radar!

Also, can someone summarize whom we plan to Elect and why?

[Katyusha]

Anen I'm going to go back and see where the loose end is in our conversation about Hindu is because Katy-whos-been-up-for-22-hours doesnt quite remember, but on the bit about 1527, it's the hypocrisy in saying that town should be working together to scumhunt and communicate with each other while shutting that down just a few posts beforehand. It's either elitist or scummy, and more than likely it's actually just both. So basically the same thing you noticed but kind of different

the read change in 362 btw was because your last two posts above that I felt were really town. basically i just kind of gut scumread your first two posts but after that you started getting progressively more and more town

Right now at least I don't think there's a collective plan on the election. I'm on board for sticking with Creature as our hider elect since he's as close to an IC as we can get and Math-through-Guilty explained why it's the better mechanical play to use it to get an IC rather than figure out someone's alignment.

[Katyusha]

Of course the second part applies, but his initial take on it is that it's "obvtown" and I want to know how you feel about that since you're voting him. I'm assuming Reck isn't Creature-levels of easy to read and that most people wouldn't lock a read on him on page 4. Plus it makes sense for him to use the second part of the sentence in any sort of interaction (T/T, T/S, S/T, S/S) as a result so I don't really see the point of discussing that part of the reasoning.

Oh, this?

Basically that was more about sorting you and Hindu simultaneously actually - I thought at least one of you/hindu/reck was scum and I thought the strangeness of the read would be a good discussion point to see if you and Hindu were partners. And, if you were town, it'd alternatively help me see it based on how you reacted to someone strongly disagreeing with your vote (i.e., why do you think this person thinks your scumread is obvtown?).

I think the intended utility of the question is obviously past its prime and your analysis of hindu is strong and basically what i've been seeing though so im not sure if this matters besides tying up an awkward loose end




which i need to do with reck at some point

[Katyusha]

just for clarification because i know ive been all over the place the past day but i feel a lot more solid about the gamestate now except for reck

{rc creature guiltylion byf}
{mastina anen cheeky}
{Primate s_s}
{EP srceenplay reck}
{hindu chess}

[Aneninen]

Okay, I'm modifying my read.
Katyusha is

strong town

.

Not only because of the content of the posts (1564–1565), but also because of the

style

and the

timing

of them.

I think if she were scum, she would do something like

"great, I've just got a lean town read, hurray, let's move on and see whom our team could and/or have to get rid of"

.
But what sort of attitude was that? It was like:

"good, you think I may be town. I think you may be town, too. But don't leave my radar, let's talk more!"

That attitude wouldn't help scum at all!

[Katyusha]

i'll boot you up too honestly i didnt even know thatd be a thing anyone would ever look for lol

[Katyusha]

a lot of people are starting to obvtown and EP isnt around

honestly poor ep </3

[Katyusha]

i'll boot you up too honestly i didnt even know thatd be a thing anyone would ever look for lol

for clarification this is because i dont think scum bullshits that read, i just?

never would have thought to fake that thought process

[chesskid3]

Hindu is a moronic lynch and you're all morons.

literally even me into mastina is better, because once mastina flips scum this shit STOPS and we start looking at the S_S's and Katyushas of the fucking world.

I ask again, Chesskid, good fucking player that he is

Would he be holding the game hostage if he werent fuckin sure on Mastina?

[chesskid3]

Like look at peoples reads. Look at hindu just conveniently dropping under the guise of

"Oh im tiiiiiired lets get this over with"

You people are fucking pathetic. It's team mafia and if youre town doing this shit replace with a teammate who isn't.

[chesskid3]

hindu conveniently dropping meaning

compare yoshi past list to now

Katy past list to now etc

Everyone using the guise o

OH HEY CHESSKID HASNT FLIPPED

to justify shit tier reads.

This is the problem with lynching someone other than me mastina today, if people arent going to lynch based on the correct flips

[chesskid3]

{rc creature guiltylion byf}
{mastina anen cheeky}
{Primate s_s}
{EP srceenplay reck}
{hindu chess}

like what the actual FUCK is this list