Newbie 1845 - A New Dawn Game Over

[Lil Uzi Vert]

Sunlight, I don’t understand why you’re voting me and I find you voting me to be the most puzzling. I’m looking over your ISO and I think you should still have me at null.

[Lil Uzi Vert]

Also I am not a huge fan of the LUV speed lynch. RC was 100% sure they would flip scum but just because RC flipped town doesn't mean we should treat their word as gospel.

RedFlavor's vote here especially is a bit sus to me as they were convinced RC was scum at end of D1 and now are seemingly piggybacking off of RC's last words.

This.

Pre-flip associations are almost always a bad idea guys. They require assumptions about knowledge that you don't actually have, which lead to very faulty reasoning and mistaken beliefs about how likely a given player actually is to be scum.

I have no room to talk though and knew this was coming.

Don’t agree with nav calling out Red. Red tunneling me is exactly what I would expect from a newbie after RC’s flip.

[Lil Uzi Vert]

Avi has become null to me.

[Sunlit Diamond]

I'm voting because I read through RC's ISO knowing he was town, and even though his last play pisses me off, I trust his judgment in this. Consider it unabashed posthumous sheeping.

[Lil Uzi Vert]

Well I’m going to be a bit blunt. I think my lynch here practically hands scum the game. Especially if you and Creature are town.

[thenavneet]

You are saying that I should not vote LUV because I thought RC was scum. How does that make sense

I am not saying you should not vote LUV. Nor am I saying you SHOULD vote LUV. I am saying that from MY perspective the way in which you did a complete 180 from yesterday is suspicious. What I saw was this

Red on D1 - RC is definitely scum. Lynch him!!!111
Red on D2 - LUV is definitely scum. Lynch him!!!!111

There was no explanation as to why you are just accepting that LUV is scum after pushing so hard that RC was scum. To expand more, I imagine that you found RC's behavior scummy or disagreed with his reads during D1 when you didn't know his role. Why does all of that magically disappear just because RC flipped town? Like sure you now know that you were wrong about RC's alignment (as were a lot of people so this isn't me singling you out) But why does that mean that you now ignore everything that you thought on D1 and just go with what RC said. I don't see how you got from point A to point B and if you can explain it to me or even say anything at all about it, I would appreciate it.

Also I am not a huge fan of the LUV speed lynch. RC was 100% sure they would flip scum but just because RC flipped town doesn't mean we should treat their word as gospel.

RedFlavor's vote here especially is a bit sus to me as they were convinced RC was scum at end of D1 and now are seemingly piggybacking off of RC's last words.

This.

Pre-flip associations are almost always a bad idea guys. They require assumptions about knowledge that you don't actually have, which lead to very faulty reasoning and mistaken beliefs about how likely a given player actually is to be scum.

I have no room to talk though and knew this was coming.

Don’t agree with nav calling out Red. Red tunneling me is exactly what I would expect from a newbie after RC’s flip.

I don't agree with the reasoning that X would do something because they are a newbie. I'm a newbie too and I sure as fuck am not just jumping on a lynch just because a dead Townie told me to do it.

[Lil Uzi Vert]

Right.

I mainly stated that because I don’t think Red tunneling me is indicative of his alignment.

[Sunlit Diamond]

Judging someone on erratic reads should be done pretty carefully, since 'erratic' can apply equally to town and scum. The context is what is important, not the behavior itself.

LUV can confirm this. Or tell me why I'm wrong, either/or.

I'd like to see more explanation from Flavor for this specific reason.

[RedFlavor]

explanation for what

[Sunlit Diamond]

For your reads. Something longer than a sentence from both you and Avi would be *amazing*.

[RedFlavor]

Im thinking that if luv is scum, people voting luv must be town because it was 4vs4
I also think that sando is town because I tr him
you looked confused but if you were scum you would vote RC and end the day but that would be suspicious, but I dont think that's the case
so its navneet


also if luv wasnt scum, scum could jump to luv wagon end be less suspicious but that never happened

[Lil Uzi Vert]

I don’t understand the last 4 posts.

[Sunlit Diamond]

My first post was advice to newbies, the rest was discussion of Red's reads?

[Sunlit Diamond]

Pre-emptive warning that this weekend is crazy for me and I probably won't be around much Saturday/Sunday.

May or may not make it a formal VLA, depends on how tomorrow goes.

[Inferno390]

Also I am not a huge fan of the LUV speed lynch. RC was 100% sure they would flip scum but just because RC flipped town doesn't mean we should treat their word as gospel.

RedFlavor's vote here especially is a bit sus to me as they were convinced RC was scum at end of D1 and now are seemingly piggybacking off of RC's last words.

This.

Pre-flip associations are almost always a bad idea guys. They require assumptions about knowledge that you don't actually have, which lead to very faulty reasoning and mistaken beliefs about how likely a given player actually is to be scum.

I have no room to talk though and knew this was coming.

I don't understand why this is a pre-flip association. Red was derptunneling RC. RC flipped town. Red immediately started tunneling you at the start of D2, which was obviously going to be the lynch today. SO how is it pre-flip association?
I feel like you brought this up as an attempt to try and confuse town on how we should read you compared to RC's posts. Which is both something I think scum IC would do, and is not convincing at all. I could read you as scum without your interaction with RC. RC just happened to be the one who brought why you were scummy to a head.

Well I’m going to be a bit blunt. I think my lynch here practically hands scum the game. Especially if you and Creature are town.

This feels like a major cross between AtE and AtA. Also, if LUV flips scum, Sunlit and Creature immeadiately go on my radar, because this loks like scum shading a buddy as town.

Im thinking that if luv is scum, people voting luv must be town because it was 4vs4
I also think that sando is town because I tr him
you looked confused but if you were scum you would vote RC and end the day but that would be suspicious, but I dont think that's the case
so its navneet


also if luv wasnt scum, scum could jump to luv wagon end be less suspicious but that never happened

Not completely comfortable with Red's logic here.
So what you're saying is that both of the scum were on RC's wagon, so scum has to be between Sando and Naveet, right? I feel like there's too many flaws with that. Sunlit could have been scum trying to drag us into a no-lynch becasue eitehr lynch was bad for him, or creature or Avi could have wagoned on LUV to clear themselves for D3.
Just saying you townread Sando is not enough. Why exactly do you townread him?
Sunlit was not confused. He just didn't like either wagon. And the best thing for scum day one in a scum!LUV world would have been a no-lynch. The second best thing for Sunlit!scum would have been to lynch LUV, because that would have cleared him for D2. The worst thing for scum at that point was RC's lynch. We were obviously heading for a no lynch, and Sunlit claims he would have voted LUV given the opportunity. So Sunlit cannot be ruled out yet.
Obviously, you've completely ruled yourself out, but that looks like indirect shading as town to me.
I feel like you're trying to find ground for a Naveet mislynch D3. But on the other hand, this is the most thought out thing we've gotten from you this game. So I'm not sure how to look at this.
If LUV was scum, his buddy could hammer and try and cruise for the rest of the game though, right? So I feel like a scum jump to LUV's wagon at the point we were at would haveactually been pretty sus.

[Lil Uzi Vert]

A pre-flip association is basically using evidence based on presumptions. A number of you are presuming that because RC flipped town, I must be scum.

I don’t think there are sufficient reasons to scum read me with or without my interactions with RC. I scum read his predecessor’s play. I was wrong about his predecessor’s play coming from scum. Both of these facts don’t make me scum.

[Lil Uzi Vert]

What are you going to do Inferno when I flip town?

[Lil Uzi Vert]

I ask because the way I see it, I think you’re going to either attempt to policy lynch Red or death tunnel Sunlight.

[Lil Uzi Vert]

The worst thing for me as scum would’ve been a no-lynch. I’m the minority. I need to be able to push and drive mislynches to achieve my win-con.

[Lil Uzi Vert]

VOTE: Creature

[Inferno390]

A pre-flip association is basically using evidence based on presumptions. A number of you are presuming that because RC flipped town, I must be scum.

I don’t think there are sufficient reasons to scum read me with or without my interactions with RC. I scum read his predecessor’s play. I was wrong about his predecessor’s play coming from scum. Both of these facts don’t make me scum.

I'm not presuming anything. I was reading you as scum long before RC flipped. so your "pre-flip association" call does not hold water with me.

What are you going to do Inferno when I flip town?

I ask because the way I see it, I think you’re going to either attempt to policy lynch Red or death tunnel Sunlight.

I've already said that if Red pays like he did D1, I'm going to get him policy lynched. That being said, if his play improves today and we get some real reads from him, that will not be the case any more.
Sunlit is pinging me right now based on the last few interactions between him and RC. Then again, Sando pinged me when he replaced in, Sheep pinged me the entire game, and RC pinged me when he replaced in. So I think you have no real way to predict what I'm going to do based on what happens today.

The worst thing for me as scum would’ve been a no-lynch. I’m the minority. I need to be able to push and drive mislynches to achieve my win-con.

Yeah, but what if that mislynch makes you look bad? Isn't that worse than no lynch at all, which gives no information to the town?
See, if I was scum, I would have rather had a no-lynch at that point rather than have someone's flip make me look bad enough to get me lynched.

That being said, don't turn this into a reason why you must be town then, because that's not what I'm saying at all. What iI'm saying is that that no lynch WAS the best for you based on the circumstances, because there was nothing else that could have been doen that didn't make you look scummy. And you said that you advocated a no-lynch D1.
I think that now that we haven't speedlynched you, you're trying to find a way o cloud town's judgement and discredit what actually went down in D1 in an attempt to draw the heat off of you. But it's not going to work. we are sticking to our guns. You are scum, and you will be lynched. The town has thus decreed.

"So it has been written! So let it be done!"

[Inferno390]

I'm stuck in terrible WIFOM on creature right now. LUV's calling creature out as town today is giving me real "bussing by bud so he doesn't get the lynch tomorrow." But since creature is not high on anyone's scumlist anyways, I'm also thinking that LUV knows his time is up and is trying to influence a mislynch on creature tomorrow.
Anyone want to shine some light on this?

[Inferno390]

Oh and since it's D2, I have to make a confession, guys.
I claim The Flying Pumpkin that Shoots Lazer Beams Out of Its Ass.
And you thought this was a newbie game.

[Sunlit Diamond]

This game is amazing.

I am not buying what LUV is selling.

Inferno, what's your take on what I said to Sando?

[Inferno390]

I feel like there's good reasoning to what Sando has said. You did have 14 days to lynch the LUV wagon, but you didn't under the statement that you didn't like the lynch (which is reasonable.) From where I'm standing, I can very easily see you not have voting anyone and taking us into night without a lynch. So to say that it was unfair for RC to steal away your choice of vote from you is not true. The choice was hanging in front of you the entire time. You just chose not to make it.

I'm also not happy with the reaction test thing. This is now the second time I've had a role in a reaction test, which I'm uncomfortable with as it is, and I feel like your claim to a reaction test is kind of weak.