Micro 776: Jackpot (Over)

[Harambey180]

Alright, I'm gonna join the party.
@Bambietta yeah I was asleep. Just woke up, school in a moment so this could be a bit rushed.

[Harambey180]

I see this as T+S. T+T is too risky to assume it is right now. If this is S+S they are putting up quite a show.
I would lean towards town!Sheep than vice versa. Bambietta's posts have a clumsy appealing, sry Bambietta. Bit of a scumlean on you.

[Harambey180]

I'm not too sure on sheep but I have stronger townlean on him for now, than I have on Bambi.

[Harambey180]

Well we need to get UCV and Mumble on here. Or to wake up. We don't know if they were asleep or not.

[Harambey180]

UCV and Mumble still no posts. Or maybe they thought that waiting until 2021 was actually a good idea...

Anyways I still stick with Bambi or sheep scum, and thus UCV or Mumble scum. I'm suspecting that scum team wouldn't be the two to open up this game, so Bambi+sheep seems already out of the question. At least for now.

[Harambey180]

I think they'd spread it out a bit as in one does the talking and the other stays quiet.
Though as long as until UCV and Mumble make a post, we don't know. These two could also just have been asleep.
However in about 5 hours from now the game will have lasted 24 hours so by then I can forget about that. You cannot possibly sleep for 24 hours.

[Harambey180]

Also, you hardly can't have no access to the Internet for 19 hours. Maybe for one of them. But I don't imagine that both of them haven't looked at this thread for almost a day long, in other words one of them is likely lurking a bit.

[Harambey180]

I think they'd spread it out a bit as in one does the talking and the other stays quiet.

Ah, you explained a bit more. Why do you think they'd spread it out?

Because in my eyes, the scum team wants to have influence on the way the game goes. They won't if they stay quiet, so at least one of them is likely to have a big role in the game.
Don't think that both of them would be active from the start, unless they're putting up a show so big that we're gonna think both are Town.

[Harambey180]

Although now that I'm on that part...
Why would they not both start the game's first interaction?
Well as you could tell from my response it's made at least one of them suspicious.

That's why I think only one of them is scum. Then it's 1v1 and if it swings in favor of scum then they're havin a good start.

[Harambey180]

So to sum that up:

Bambi and sheep are NOT both scum, because their 1v1 interaction in the game is very likely to make one of them suspicious.
Bambi and sheep are also NOT both Town, because assumably scum wants some sort of influence in the game. Having one person in that 1v1 is good for influence. Also if scum are lucky then the other one of the two (the Townie) is going to be suspected while the actual scum isn't.

@Mumble

Does this make sense to you or do you think it's differing from this?

[Harambey180]

still reading
harambey saying sorry to bambietta is likely not w/w

What does w/w stand for? I know s/s and t/t but w/w is a new one for me so please say shortly what it stands for if you don't mind.

[Harambey180]

harambey, what do you find risky about thinking we could be t/t
i find it very likely

Well grab your calculator. The chances of you two both being town is just 1/6, and if you'd leave me out that's still just 3/10. Purely statistically it's very unlikely actually.

Also I explained that scum is expected to want to have input. There is a possibility that both of you are Town but it's unlikely. Given the reasoning I already gave you, it's almost a certainty that you and Bambi are SvT.

[Harambey180]

@sheep

If you have a different look at the situation, please tell us yours. You only said you found t/t likely but you stopped there. Also you had a reason to question me (you had differing opinions), if you are going to question another player's thought process you oughta explain your own too.

[Harambey180]

VOTE: mumble

overaggressive entrance
also poe

Why is it necessarily overaggressive.
Also why is it PoE here. Especially so early on in the game, and with UCV not having made a single post, I'm really wondering why you think it's PoE.

[Harambey180]

Also we have this chain of votes right now ( '->' means 'votes for'):
Mumble -> Bambi
Bambi -> sheep
sheep -> Mumble

I am going to spend time figuring out what this could mean.

[Harambey180]

Do you think activity is alignment indicative? I'll give you active lurking can be, but do you think that overall activity is?

Did you miss this?

Well I'm kind of in a struggle with that. I've had two mafia games previously (won't go too much into detail). One of them taught me that activity is good for catching scum and the other game said that's invalid here.
So I can't really give a good answer to that.

But then again I was just talking about lurking. Lurking usually is either scum or a PR but as there are no 'Power Roles' here I assumed that lurking is more likely to be scummy. Correct me if I'm wrong on this.

[Harambey180]

That's who would win a match of rock-paper-scissors against each other?

What's your reason to post this. It's game irrelevant and it should be so obvious what I meant with that post. It disturbs me a bit tbh.

[Harambey180]

VOTE: mumble

overaggressive entrance
also poe

Why is it necessarily overaggressive.
Also why is it PoE here. Especially so early on in the game, and with UCV not having made a single post, I'm really wondering why you think it's PoE.

the confidence is just bad
then "probably the partner" is forced

you are either obvtown or almost as good at scum as i am. bambietta is likely town so it's sort of poe

Why is Bambi likely town in your opinion?

[Harambey180]

But then again I was just talking about lurking. Lurking usually is either scum or a PR but as there are no 'Power Roles' here I assumed that lurking is more likely to be scummy. Correct me if I'm wrong on this.

I think lurking/activity is NAI. Active lurking is usually scum, but can also be a PR.

That's who would win a match of rock-paper-scissors against each other?

What's your reason to post this. It's game irrelevant and it should be so obvious what I meant with that post. It disturbs me a bit tbh.

This is active lurking.

Aah, now I get what you mean by 'active lurking'. It's the 'making posts to look busy while you're not doing anything' concept, right?

[Harambey180]

@sheep

If you have a different look at the situation, please tell us yours. You only said you found t/t likely but you stopped there. Also you had a reason to question me (you had differing opinions), if you are going to question another player's thought process you oughta explain your own too.

@sheep

Responds to my post #37.
Responds to my post #40.
Does not respond to my post #39 while I specifically asked him a question here that's important enough for me to bold his name in the post.

Can you give a reply to that post now, sheep?

[Harambey180]

@Mumble Does this make sense to you or do you think it's differing from this?

It makes sense, but I disagree. While their 1v1 ended up making one of them suspicious, I don't think that it necessarily had to have. Nor, do I think that it's a good reason to eliminate the possibility that both are scum (or town).

I'm not eliminating those chances by now.
However, just purely theoretically the odds of them being S+T is 4/6. Check this if you want.

I'm not eliminating either of those chances, but for now I think it's good to assume it's S+T. Most likely that it's like this, seems decent to follow this idea right?

[Harambey180]

Well I made it to be funny, not to have a hidden agenda. Joking around can call the nerves before stuff, ya know?

And I knew what you meant. Your looking for the reasons why certain things are going on.

UNVOTE:

I'm there for questions if you want to ask them.

Pretty much saying here: As long as you don't want to have information from me, I'm not going to give that information myself.
Come on Bambi, you know better than this. You don't always have to and shouldn't wait for questions to be asked.

FoS Bambi

[Harambey180]

It's like a typical case of 'only speaks when spoken to'.

[Harambey180]

I was literally the first person that wasn't the Moderator to post here. Saying I only speak when spoken too is kinda shitty for an expression.

Unless the FoS isn't "Finger of Suspicion" and it means "Full of Shit".

Yeah you got a point here, regarding the beginning, I'd take it back.
However regarding just that post alone, it does fall in 'only speaks when spoken to' when you're asking for questions. It's not that I said that this was true for your entire gameplay so far, just that post and what's assumably coming next.

[Harambey180]

@sheep

If you have a different look at the situation, please tell us yours. You only said you found t/t likely but you stopped there. Also you had a reason to question me (you had differing opinions), if you are going to question another player's thought process you oughta explain your own too.

i know im town, so me/bambi is t/t or t/w
both are possible
i townread bambi so i find t/t more likely

First of all, that's so LAMIST.
Second of all, try to look at it from my perspective.
I don't know if you are Town or not, for my view saying you are, does not matter.
Can you understand that from my point of view, it's pretty hard to go with a t/t situation here?

[Harambey180]

You are right though from your perspective. This does not really help others though because who knows if you aren't putting up a show.

[Harambey180]

Although, gotta take that back. The one thing that does help the others is that you say that you townread Bambi, though it's open for all sorts of interpretations. Can't tell how much it'll help as of this moment...

[Harambey180]

i was talking fmpov. that's not lamist - lamist is hey im obvtown not hey im town from my perspective

In my eyes, it is LAMIST. Let me explain:

It should be obvious that everyone is trying to come over as a Townie, Townies and scummies. You should assume we'd see you as Town.
However, apparently you felt you needed to mention it. You don't need to. Of course when you are explaining your view, we're supposed to believe you on your word as being a Townie.

Thus, mentioning you are Town is slight LAMIST to me. On the other hand it could just be to clarify the situation but I've found that excuse to be LAME-IST, to come up with a new term.

[Harambey180]

Well, let me point something out since I'm accused of waiting for questions toward me.

We have two choices here. Lynch one of the mafia, preferably the Godfather, and win easy peasy. OR, we could say who we absolutely trust as town be hung so they can venge kill mafia. And with that information, we get the their partner rather easily.

What's the problem with trying to lynch a mafia?
I mean, on the way to the lynch, we're going to have some good assumptions about possible scum in the end.
We should always try to lynch the scum. In case we actually lynch a Vengeful Townie, well then that person should be able to make a good decision if we put enough work into trying to catch the scum.

[Harambey180]

So I don't get why you bring this up. What's the point in trying to lynch a Vengeful Townie, assuming he will venge kill a scum? Imagine he won't, then we lost (if I'm correct). That's also a big risk tbh.
My plan is: Try to lynch the mafia and if we didn't succeed there, then still hopefully we've done enough to get a venge kill right after.

[Harambey180]

Also, I thought it's a good idea to ask each of you a question:

@Bambi

Can you tell us what your read on UCV is, and why?

@UCV

Your only post so far was #58. It shows that you had enough time to catch up. Why are you not posting more?

@Mumble

What is your opinion on me+Bambi? As in: T+T/S+S/T+S/S+T.

@sheep

Assuming that you are indeed Town, can you give us your readslist?

[Harambey180]

Also here's a question to everyone. Please tell me honestly if you think this is a stupid question to ask:
Imagine that you were one of the two scum in this game (just imagine). Who of the other four players in this game, do you think would most likely be your scumpartner at this moment?
It could be game-irrelevant, I don't know. I just think it's an interesting question to ask.

[Harambey180]

Imagine that you were one of the two scum in this game (just imagine). Who of the other four players in this game, do you think would most likely be your scumpartner at this moment?

mathdino

im not familiar with any of your wolf play so tbh i wouldnt care

Well let me word it differently then:
Based on how the others have been posting so far, who would most likely have been scum together with you, if you were scum yourself? Like, who do you think would be your most logical scumpartner?

[Harambey180]

Well, let me point something out since I'm accused of waiting for questions toward me.

We have two choices here. Lynch one of the mafia, preferably the Godfather, and win easy peasy. OR, we could say who we absolutely trust as town be hung so they can venge kill mafia. And with that information, we get the their partner rather easily.

What's the problem with trying to lynch a mafia?
I mean, on the way to the lynch, we're going to have some good assumptions about possible scum in the end.
We should always try to lynch the scum. In case we actually lynch a Vengeful Townie, well then that person should be able to make a good decision if we put enough work into trying to catch the scum.

Because i know finding the mafia should be the part town should focus on, but the Vengeful kill is also the option we have to keep in mind. If we do hang someone who we read as SCUM but is a vengeful, they'll kill the leader of the wagon on them probably, which could be either a mafia leading the Lynch or a misguided townie. So hanging a Vengeful by accident has a huge chance of backfiring.

But if we hang someone who is READ as townie, that works out for us either way. If they are the ones the town mainly read as townie, they can kill the mafia after thinking really hard about it. And if they're scum who got away with being town read? Well that solves itself too.

Sorry but I'm just not going to follow your idea. This is a ridiculous idea.
Yes we should figure out who the mafia are. If we have an idea of who the scummies are why on earth would we NOT lynch them?
The whole 'in case they aren't scum' thing... do you really think that a Vengeful Townie will get so furious of being lynched to do just like you described? As sheep said, people know better than this. They don't get time to think who they're going to vengekill for nothing, it's so they can take a look at what happened and make a good assumption of who to vengekill. An expertised Vengeful Townie in my eyes would almost never just shoot the leader of his wagon for purely that reason, and I hope we are all expertised players here

[Harambey180]

It's good that you bring it up though that we could be wrong, but you should be confident about your scum reads. Lynching someone we think is Townie is just a bad idea imo, please summarize all the good things about this idea. Oh, and the bad things too, list them too.

[Harambey180]

Like, how does it even make a difference when we lynch a Vengeful Townie, if we assumed he was scum or Town? I really, really do not understand how you think that the one being Town-read has a higher chance of succesfully vengekilling mafia, than a scum-readed one. Especially as you say 'after thinking really hard about it'. OMGUS, a scum-readed lynched VT would hopefully also think really hard about it right?

P-edit: If that's a setup, I never played nor watched it b4, I guess it's an exception to this rule of 'never lynch Town'?

[Harambey180]

Honestly, I can imagine it being a scumslip from Bambi.
Like, first she says that a Scum-readed VT who gets lynched, would NOT think before submitting his vengekill action and just shoot the person that leaded the wagon.
However, apparently a Town-readed VT that gets lynched, would INDEED think about who to vengekill, and thus he would have a better chance of shooting the mafia.

P-edit: So like an even more chaotic version of this? Oh my...

[Harambey180]

I have a serious intent to vote you at this point for causing chaos and trying to convince others to follow your ridiculous 'masterplans'. It is that I don't know what UCV would do if I voted you - would he hammer? I don't know - but do know that I have the intent.

[Harambey180]

Also, I thought it's a good idea to ask each of you a question:

@Bambi

Can you tell us what your read on UCV is, and why?

[Harambey180]

dude look at ucv's iso
no one should have a read on him

Yeah, look at his ISO.
Look at aaaaaaall those posts that show up there.
I sure hope that you can make some sort of read on that, or at least have an opinion on that.

[Harambey180]

dude look at ucv's iso
no one should have a read on him

Yeah, look at his ISO.
Look at aaaaaaall those posts that show up there.
I sure hope that you can make some sort of read on that, or at least have an opinion on that.

Oh maybe I should have worded it otherwise:

@Bambi

What do you think about UCV only having made one post?

[Harambey180]

Like, UCV has posted so little, even RC our savior and super moderator has made more posts

[Harambey180]

dont vote bamb
wagon mumble

Because???

[Harambey180]

Won't do what you say I should do if that's all you say.

[Harambey180]

I think I'm going to do a quick ISO on Mumble and UCV now, I've been focusing a tad too much on Bambi and sheep.
But then again that's because they posted more...

[Harambey180]

Well never mind, ISOing UCV is just pointless. I hope I don't need to explain why.

[Harambey180]

dont vote bamb
wagon mumble

Because???

I hope it's not still the 'overaggressive entrance' and 'PoE' anymore.
At least explain why voting Mumble is PoE. I can recall on that I asked you this b4, but not that you answered it. Unless I missed it, in that case please refer to that post, I'm working on Mumble now.

[Harambey180]

ISO on Mumble. If I won't forget I'll put a tl;dr at the end.

VOTE: Bambietta Basterbine

Scum.

That's not gonna change my opinion on Bambi.

Bambietta's posts have a clumsy appealing, sry Bambietta. Bit of a scumlean on you.

Probably the partner.

Again, that's not gonna impress me. Explain us why you think that I would be Bambi's scumpartner, in case Bambi is indeed scum.

I'm suspecting that scum team wouldn't be the two to open up this game, so Bambi+sheep seems already out of the question.

That's a weird thing to think. Explain?[/quote]

@Mumble Does this make sense to you or do you think it's differing from this?

It makes sense, but I disagree. While their 1v1 ended up making one of them suspicious, I don't think that it necessarily had to have. Nor, do I think that it's a good reason to eliminate the possibility that both are scum (or town).

Again your reasoning looks so weak. Yes, we shouldn't eliminate those possibilities. I'd like to hear why you'd think 'it necessarily had to have'.
I don't even get what you mean by that in the first way. That just shows that it's weak too.

But then again I was just talking about lurking. Lurking usually is either scum or a PR but as there are no 'Power Roles' here I assumed that lurking is more likely to be scummy. Correct me if I'm wrong on this.

I think lurking/activity is NAI. Active lurking is usually scum, but can also be a PR.

That's who would win a match of rock-paper-scissors against each other?

What's your reason to post this. It's game irrelevant and it should be so obvious what I meant with that post. It disturbs me a bit tbh.

This is active lurking.

This is too.
That's a rude way to say it I guess, but I do think it looks like it.

tl;dr: What I'm most concerned about for Mumble, is that his reasoning is weak or not there. Just says what he thinks but not why. He should try to convince us why he is right and why we should follow him, he's not doing that. A short argumentation has more scum motive in my eyes; there's less room for scumslips or other errors.
Mumble, if you want to convince me you are Town, I'd ask you to elaborate more on what you say. I kind of miss that now.

[Harambey180]

VOTE: mumble

overaggressive entrance
also poe

Why is it necessarily overaggressive.
Also why is it PoE here. Especially so early on in the game, and with UCV not having made a single post, I'm really wondering why you think it's PoE.

the confidence is just bad
then "probably the partner" is forced

you are either obvtown or almost as good at scum as i am. bambietta is likely town so it's sort of poe

Aah, found it. You did explain.
I guess the reason why I slightly forgot about it is bcuz it's not really convincing a lot.
Though you did keep it short and simple.
"The confidence is just bad" I wonder how you could tell that.
If the confidence is indeed bad then that would indeed be forced. We - or at least I - have already asked Mumble questions about this though so we'll be able to elaborate on it soon.

[Harambey180]

Nothing seems wrong with your reasoning for why it's PoE. Fypov, you are Town, you have townlean on me and slight townlean on Bambi.

[Harambey180]

Nothing seems wrong with your reasoning for why it's PoE. Fypov, you are Town, you have townlean on me and slight townlean on Bambi.

However why would that mean we should vote Mumble and not UCV? Because UCV has posted less?
I mean in your world then UCV is also likely to be scum then right... then again you have a null on him.
Or in other words, either Bambi or UCV should be seen as scum but it's T+N right now.

[Harambey180]

I just realized I've made almost half of all the posts in the entire game so far.
I guess I should calm down a bit... I think it's not bad to give the others the word for a moment, right?

P-edit: @sheep why has he had 0 impact on the game so far? He at least told us his opinions, that has impact right.
@Bambi well that's bold to assume... like what would you get out of that? That he has lost interest in this game... he'll come back soon hopefully.

[Harambey180]

Sheep, you do realize that I have JUST made an ISO on Mumble, right? I already explained why I look at it in a different way yet you still tell me to ISO him.

[Harambey180]

Also I have to leave now, so it's the right time to take a break from this game I guess. Expect me to be back somewhere in 2021.

[Harambey180]

Alright... 4 posts in 14 hours of me being absent.
I guess I'll regrab my task of keeping everyone active here.

[Harambey180]

Honestly the silent Townies are disappointing me then at this moment, silence does not help. Anywhere.
(Unless you know of another weird setup again, sheep)

[Harambey180]

erg. i will cathc up later

UCV, please become active right now or just replace out. If you're scum then it's not that awful to lurk but still it is putting me off, if you can't catch up then just replace out as soon as you get the chance please.

[Harambey180]

erg. i will cathc up later

UCV, please become active right now or just replace out. If you're scum then it's not that awful to lurk but still it is putting me off, if you can't catch up then just replace out as soon as you get the chance please.

And if you are actually Town that'd be even worse.

[Harambey180]

look at his posts again with what i said in mind

First I already told you that I ISO'd him, which you seemed to have skipped.
Apparently you also missed the moment that I agreed on that he indeed hardly reasoned at all. Look again at my ISO, especially the tl;dr:

tl;dr: What I'm most concerned about for Mumble, is that his reasoning is weak or not there. Just says what he thinks but not why. He should try to convince us why he is right and why we should follow him, he's not doing that. A short argumentation has more scum motive in my eyes; there's less room for scumslips or other errors.
Mumble, if you want to convince me you are Town, I'd ask you to elaborate more on what you say. I kind of miss that now.

I had put focus on him that he has weak or no reasoning. I am already pushing him to do that better; you have no need to try and do that too apart from putting more pressure on him.

[Harambey180]

I am forgiving you though for these slightly dumb posts (in my eyes) from you, sheep. After me, you are still the one that is bringing up the most ideas and contribution, so I can let you get away with a few not-so-logical theories.

[Harambey180]

he also has 0 impact on the game

He has made a vote. Does that have zero impact on the game?
He is questioning some of our observations. Thus, he is trying to get more 'information' out of us. Even though he hardly gives any himself, does that have zero impact on the game?
In post 46, he actually did give his thought on my theory on t/t or s/s being possible or not, though he mostly gave no reasoning, he did give here.

Most ironically:

VOTE: mumble

overaggressive entrance
also poe

Could you point out what you found overly aggressive, and hash out your POE for me.

You quite sorta said that he doesn't push anything and asks useless questions.
This definitely is a good question to ask, and even more hilarious, he is asking you a question because you didn't elaborate your thought, while you also blame him for doing similarly.
I'll just consider that last thing hilarious.

[Harambey180]

Oh, now everyone is truly here. Woohoo!

Bambi calls UCV 'truly here' after he makes his second post, which is just like the first post, which is all about 'I'll catch up later'.

I'm linking Bambi and UCV now. Can't make too good of a read on UCV but PoE makes him scum for now.

[Harambey180]

Oh, now everyone is truly here. Woohoo!

Bambi calls UCV 'truly here' after he makes his second post, which is just like the first post, which is all about 'I'll catch up later'.

I'm linking Bambi and UCV now. Can't make too good of a read on UCV but

PoE makes him scum for now

.

I'll elaborate on this further:
Sheep is so far my strongest town lean. Not too strong because he said a few pointless things, but he does seem to contribute the most out of the other four players, so he's my strongest one.

Bambi and Mumble are both kind of suspicious. However, I see no possibility that both of them are scum. Mumble voted Bambi in his first post. Even though he never went too hard for a lynch on him, I can't honestly link Bambi and Mumble together. Or at least it seems too risky.

- @sheep (or UCV if he makes an appearance):

If yes, could you give me some reasons why you CAN link these two together? Hopefully it will clarify this for me.

But thus, for now, I can't make both Bambi and Mumble scum. Sheep is a town lean, either Bambi or Mumble is scum for me, that makes UCV the second scum -> this is my PoE.

[Harambey180]

However, I don't think we should vote UCV. Let's take the weird idea that UCV is Vengeful Townie into account. Based on his low activity so far he might even forget to vengekill if he's lynched. And if he is scum, we still wouldn't get a better vision of who could be the other scum (unless UCV is Godfather ofc, then we don't need to worry about that, but let's just take two normal scum for now).
Voting Bambi or Mumble seems like the wisest decision as of now. If either of the two flips green then they will probably shoot the other one. I mean, even if sheep could be scum, still I think the chance of the other one being scum is big.

[Harambey180]

OK now that I pretty much linked Bambi + Mumble t/s, I should sum these 'group reads' up:
My 'group reads' are:
Bambi + sheep: Town + Scum
Mumble + UCV: Town + Scum
Bambi + Mumble: Town + Scum

I am doubting the first one a bit but I still think that is true.
With a strong town read on sheep, that makes Bambi scum. With Bambi being scum, that makes Mumble town if you look at the bottom 'group read'. If Mumble is Town, that makes UCV scum again.

[Harambey180]

I have no really big doubts on these group reads, so I'm going to assume that Bambi and UCV are scum. If you think otherwise, say so and try hard to convince me why you are right and I am wrong.

[Harambey180]

So did the moderator, yay!

[Harambey180]

Oh oops I spoke too soon

Sorry RC, you are a superb moderator.

[Harambey180]

it's sort of like
notice how when you and i have reads we push them

mumble isnt actually trying to do that

At least he is giving them reads, unlike Bambi.

[Harambey180]

bamb reads pls

... yeah we need someone like Haram to actually keep this game going. We lose the motivation otherwise. Well, UCV appearantly did. Or he forgot.

bamb

reads

I see you grouping me up with Mumble for some reason. I don't like that, but okay.

To tired to think, but I'm honestly going to say I want to see if me or sheep can find scum motivation in Haram, since we've been assuming he's town? Ahh...

Okay. Crashing after 20 hours isn't bad. I'm just gon

that's not reads

Strong point made here. I shouldn't go too hard at this because it's also easy to push as scum. But you gotta push as Town too so yeah...

[Harambey180]

Also, it makes me wonder... why would Town be very quiet in this setup?
Town needs to be active to convince the other two Townies that they are not scum and they should vote for actual scum. There is absolutely zero point in Town staying silent being a good thing.
Thus I see you as Town, sheep. Stays active and makes good posts.
I am starting to believe that Bambi+Mumble is possible. I mean, both of them have stayed considerably quiet. Mumble only made one 'poor' appearance, and Bambi has just been weak all game long imho. Bambi needs to up his game.
That is why I think that UCV might actually be the other Town. Because he could also just not have interest in this game. Like, if Bambi or Mumble were Town, they surely would have played this game differently.

[Harambey180]

So sheep, should I vote Mumble now? I'm pretty much almost there that I could convince myself to vote right now.

[Harambey180]

Although hold on

@sheep

Pretty notable that you also seem to push Bambi hard to get something out of him. It looks like you are scumreading him, or at least that you really want to townread him.
Why do you push so hard for Mumble when there's no real big difference in 'scum-level' with Bambi? You could of just vote Bambi as well then.

[Harambey180]

Also

@Mod

Shouldn't Mumble be prodded anyways? It's been 2 days 14 hours since his last post (it already was over 2 days since YOUR last post)...

[Harambey180]

Well in your last post it was already about 2 days since his last post, and you didn't prod him.
So are you going to prod him then?

[Harambey180]

Also, I thought it's a good idea to ask each of you a question:

@Bambi

Can you tell us what your read on UCV is, and why?

@UCV

Your only post so far was #58. It shows that you had enough time to catch up. Why are you not posting more?

@Mumble

What is your opinion on me+Bambi? As in: T+T/S+S/T+S/S+T.

@sheep

Assuming that you are indeed Town, can you give us your readslist?

Let's see in the extent to which people have answered these questions:
Bambi: All he pretty much said about UCV was that he could of just lost interest / motivation for this game. I'll count it in favor of him this time.
UCV: Did he answer it? Obviously yes. Oh no wait, no. How dumb of me...
Mumble: Hasn't posted since then.
sheep: Gave his readslist.

[Harambey180]

Also iirc sheep was also the only one to answer my 'hypothetical scumpartner' question. I consider sheep Town now.

[Harambey180]

I think that you're missing the point. Mumble has already been prodded.

You could have just said it like that
Well you prodded him so that's OK.

[Harambey180]

@Mumble/UCV/Bambi

URGENT if you are Town, you need to try REALLY hard to convince me that you are Town! For example by sharing a readslist with reasons for why you read them like that, or maybe sharing your opinions on some posts.

[Harambey180]

7 hours of pure empty-ness.
Come on guys, I alone have made more posts than all of you together. Even when including RC's posts.
That's just ridiculous... if you are a Townie and you are quiet - unlike me and sheep and maybe also Bambi, so I'm talking to you guys

UCV and Mumble

- then I very urgently request you guys to POST.

[Harambey180]

And don't post such something like 'will catch up later' (@UCV) or shout some random opinions without any further explanation (@Mumble). We've seen by now that that doesn't work.

[Harambey180]

harambey, what do you find risky about thinking we could be t/t
i find it very likely

This was from a long time ago but even from your perspective as Town, it's still theoretically only a 50% chance. Not too very likely actually.
Also you seemed very easily convinced that Bambi's posts were genuine. You are pressuring him now again a bit, but still I wonder how 'shifty' you are about Bambi at the moment.

[Harambey180]

In other words, sheep, I want from you a somewhat detailed read on Bambi. So not like, two or three lines long. Actually make a well-supported read if you don't mind.

[Harambey180]

7 hours of emptiness from 1 am to 8 am? I'm shocked, Haram.

*she.

I'm more surprised that four people as a whole didn't post for 7 hours, than that I myself didn't do for 7 hours. To make clear that you guys are inactive af.

Also if I won't forget that... I'll try to remember that you're a 'she' but don't blame me if I forget sometimes. It's not like the most important thing to think about in a mafia game.

[Harambey180]

Also here's just something quick about

sheepsaysmeep

:

- In the beginning stage of the game, he voted Bambi, then changed minds quickly and voted UCV for nót posting, then votes Mumble for making an awkward post.
- Right now he keeps his vote on Mumble with pretty much the sole reason being that his posts are awkward and not contributing, and he's trying to push for votes on Mumble.
- At the same time, he still seems to pressure Bambi a lot with asking more and more questions. Knowing that *her (didn't forget this time!) responses aren't that well either, it could just be that sheep is trying to get something out of Bambi.
- And first sheep voted for UCV for staying quiet, now he says 'don't vote him because he's quiet' and thus gives UCV a null read. That means a scumread on Mumble, slight townread on Bambi which I am questioning based on how much sheep's pressuring her, but then why is UCV null? There's two scum, he should be the second scumread then right...

Though on the other hand, if sheep were indeed scum, I don't know who to link him with. Not Bambi, because he puts her too much in the spotlights. Not Mumble, because look how much sheep is pushing for votes here. I find it pretty unlikely that UCV would be the scumpartner but it's the best guess then.

tl;dr: sheep changed votes quickly in the beginning which is odd but maybe good for putting pressure. He pushes for votes and votes himself for Mumble, while he also tends to question Bambi a lot and doesn't forget about UCV which he tries to cover with a null read which I can also understand. But I can't link him with any of the other three so he is townlean for now. Not 100% sure though but he's the strongest I have.

P-edit: Will respond to that in next post.

[Harambey180]

that's not reads

I also want to question why questioning the fact that we could be ignoring a very take charge scum tactic in Haram not a possible read?

Haram, how am I supposed to make reads now? Both you and Sheep are scum reading me and the other two picked up and left.

What kind of reason is that to not be able to make reads? Because the two more active ones are scum reading you (which isn't even the case for Sheep, he has townlean on you) and the other two aren't here?
I'm not going to take that excuse, Bambi.
If people are scumreading you then literally THE thing to do is make reads on people, ISO them and convince us why you are Town. Which you can do by giving reads if we ask for them.

[Harambey180]

Quite tricky that you say Sheep is scum reading you while he isn't. I'm saying I scumread you because I wanted to see how you'd react to this. I'm not too sure about you being scum actually and that's because we also have UCV here and I'm struggling a tad with that, so I'm scumreading you cuz it seems more 'safe', but it's not a solid read and it can change easily with what you say in your posts. We're asking you a question (at least I am) so you can sound like credible Townie and gain our trust, you're not really doing that at this moment.

[Harambey180]

Next posts are questions for Mumble since he missed quite a lot:

Also here's a question to everyone. Please tell me honestly if you think this is a stupid question to ask:
Imagine that you were one of the two scum in this game (just imagine). Who of the other four players in this game, do you think would most likely be your scumpartner at this moment?
It could be game-irrelevant, I don't know. I just think it's an interesting question to ask.

@Mumble

What's your response to this question? "Bad question" is also a choice but please tell me why cuz I'm struggling to see that.

[Harambey180]

I'm actually quite surprised that I haven't asked Mumble more questions.
Also he made quite a good comeback post at first look. Haven't used a 'second look' though so it's just an assumption.

[Harambey180]

where am i disinterested in trying to sort players

You literally stated that you didn't care about my reasoning behind the bambi vote 61. Relying on gut and tone without trying to understand reasoning implies knowledge. The rest of your content is pocketing harem, calling bambi town (for an unknown reason), pushing me due to the aforementioned reason and some falsities as well.

How about this. Show me where you are sorting?

saying me townreading harambey isnt genuine is bullshit

44[/] starts the pocketing. [post]104 comes across as trying to cement it.

Like...you could be town, but until UCV generates some content/interactions, you can't be fmpov.

So you are doubting between UCV and sheep on which of the two is Town and which is scum?
As you can't really make a case on UCV, I'd like you to make a quick case on sheep. I am really interested in your view on sheep.

P-edit: Bambi what kind of post is that. I don't get it at all, but it contains the word 'f**k' so I'm keen to hear what that means.
And yes we still need your reads.
P-edit 2: post 176 it kinda is. I guess y'all are townreading me now so if one particular one does, it's not suddenly suspicious fmpov.
post 177 That's not quite what he said. He said that he thinks you could be Town but not right now, if UCV joins the game he could get a better view.

[Harambey180]

Also, I am REALLY glad that you people finally seem to try harder and post more and scumhunt more, and not just me.
If UCV also happens to come by, this is a miracle.

[Harambey180]

Next posts are questions for Mumble since he missed quite a lot:

Also here's a question to everyone. Please tell me honestly if you think this is a stupid question to ask:
Imagine that you were one of the two scum in this game (just imagine). Who of the other four players in this game, do you think would most likely be your scumpartner at this moment?
It could be game-irrelevant, I don't know. I just think it's an interesting question to ask.

@Mumble

What's your response to this question? "Bad question" is also a choice but please tell me why cuz I'm struggling to see that.

I think it's a bad question until a complete null is off the table. Right now, I have absolute zero interaction, and only a null mention (which everyone else does as well) with the UCV slot. So, that would probably be my scum partner if active...probably if inactive as well.

Based on PoE I'm trying to get that null slot off of UCV.
So yeah here's a readslist so you can see why I have a PoE now.
Townread: sheep. He's done quite a lot to have his word in the game. After me he's been the most active. He's been digging a bit too much on both Bambi and Mumble, so if I had to link sheep it would be UCV, as in UCV is sheep's scumpartner.
Slight townread: Mumble. You've finally responded now and it seems pretty good and genuine, you pretty much did what I'd liked you to do to make you a townread. I'd need more posts and contribution from you though to get a better townread.
Slight scumread: Bambi. I think it's over 5 times that sheep been asking this one for reads and never gave them. She's been quite 'un-readable' with her posts. I'd say she's scum right now, probably I'd link her with Mumble for now.

That means that UCV is becoming my scumread.
Which makes it really hard because the two 'scum-couples' I have are town-scum and slighttown-slightscum.
I see an option though that UCV and Bambi are both scum. That's probably the best to assume.

P-edit wow lots of posts I'll make a separate post again.

[Harambey180]

And now all four of the players are on at once. It's a miracle.

The reason I've been hesitating to give reads so far is because I don't townread any of your actions and I'm paranoid. UCV'S slot is null and all of you are scum lean.

But if I had to make a connection between you three, sheep and Mumble would be my pair, considering they BOTH went for me like a coordinated assult.

Huh? You nullread UCV and the rest is scum lean? what kind of post is this again...
No reason to be paranoid. If you're not giving reads because you are afraid we'll use what you say against you, you already lost. If you post them, at least there is A chance that you get some credibility. Not trying is hopeless though, but it's ok. Just give reads.

Sheep and Mumble? Both for you? Look at how sheep went die-hard at Mumble...

I have the intent to vote Bambi. Will explain in another post in more detail.

[Harambey180]

Also, sheep and Mumble are just focusing at each other. They both completely missed Bambi's post... this is s/t situation for me, I can't see t/t motivation in this. One of them just missing Bambi's last post, OK, but both of them? No that's impossible.
Or both of you townies are just tunneled too hard.

[Harambey180]

mumble's case on me is bleeding scum

Show why. And don't say it's because you're Town. LAMIST and you won't convince me that wouldn't be LAMIST.

[Harambey180]

if youre confident in bamb being scum with your weak ass reasoning then vote her

I am.

Ouch...

[Harambey180]

so youre saying ucv/me has scum
you cant read ucv yet, so for now im confscum

?

Yes. Except the confscum part. Bambi is confscum. You are scum partner by current POE.

I would not vote to lynch you over Bambi.

Sheep as Bambi's scumpartner...
I wouldn't take that out of the question.
Anyways Bambi is the right one to lynch right now. If Bambi flips Vengeful Townie, then she should vengekill either of you two, probably Mumble. With Bambi as Vengeful Townie then 100% one of sheep+Mumble is scum, still some considerable chances they both are.
Well actually hold on that's not true. Now I just realize something. As I said, hold on.

[Harambey180]

so youre saying ucv/me has scum
you cant read ucv yet, so for now im confscum

?

Yes. Except the confscum part. Bambi is confscum. You are scum partner by current POE.

I would not vote to lynch you over Bambi.

Sheep as Bambi's scumpartner...
I wouldn't take that out of the question.
Anyways Bambi is the right one to lynch right now. If Bambi flips Vengeful Townie, then she should vengekill either of you two, probably Mumble. With Bambi as Vengeful Townie then 100% one of sheep+Mumble is scum, still some considerable chances they both are.
Well actually hold on that's not true. Now I just realize something. As I said, hold on.

Okay listen carefully please.
Bambi is the best lynch today. Besides that she is quite scummy, with PoE she would also be able to make a successful vengekill by PoE.

If Bambi flips scum: Well we did a good job in that.
If Bambi flips Vengeful Townie: Well I think we can all agree on that I'm Town right now. If you still doubt that you can say that.
But if we assume that I'm Town:
That means that from sheep+Mumble+UCV, two are scum.
Look at the interaction between sheep and Mumble. If both of them are scum they are putting up a hell of a good show here.
So it's good to assume that from sheep+Mumble, one is Town and one is scum.
Thus, using PoE, Bambi should vengekill UCV if she happens to be a Vengeful Townie.

So even if Bambi isn't scum, she is very, very likely to make a successful vengekill.

[Harambey180]

but yeah i can lynch bamb

bamb if you are town shoot mumble

No, based on my last post, Bambi should probably vengekill UCV.
I guess you said 'shoot Mumble' because of your interactions with him. That's not the best thing to base your advice on.

@Bambi:

I think I'm going to vote you. If you happen to be a Vengeful Townie, please vengekill UCV. If you want to shoot someone else then I won't force you to shoot UCV but you should reread some stuff if you get lynched.

P-edit: I think UCV is safer to shoot than Mumble.
If Bambi shoots Mumble then it's quite obvious that you as scum pushed hard enough for a Mumble vengekill, together with UCV.

You're trying to get Bambi to vengekill Mumble

and not UCV

Bambi should still get lynched and should still vengekill UCV though, it's probably the safest. Safer than voting you off based on this one reason.

[Harambey180]

VOTE: Bambi

[Harambey180]

no, if bamb is town fmpov scum is mumble/ucv
if bamb shoots mumble we can lynch ucv
if bamb shoots ucv then it's me/mumble/you in lylo and i dont trust you to vote correctly

from my pov, it's much better to shoot mumble

Yeah your, from your point of view.
I'm more of a townread than you are. I don't know if you took that into consideration as well.
Also I'm looking at it from a 'third-person' view, not really counting myself. I counted myself as 'pretty credible town read'. Then, PoE would lead to UCV vengekill.

And yes the three of us would be in lylo. What's the problem with that you don't trust me enough to vote correctly? As in, that I'm going to vote Mumble correctly?
You raised my suspicions lately. It's that Bambi is obviously the best lynch today with the best chances of getting the best vengekill.

[Harambey180]

Lmao Bambi just self-lynched as scum.
Vengekill UCV is WIFOM but I am going with that it means UCV is Town.
Alright I'll VOTE: Mumble too.
Let's see what UCV does cuz the problem is is that we need 3 votes for a lynch and we can't tell when or if UCV is comin back.

[Harambey180]

Eh. The post is still drafted and I will get it done when I have time

Four posts and they're all about that 'info comes later'.
No, now. You can finish it later in another post.

[Harambey180]

UNVOTE:

OK, not now. Sheep being Town is actually considerable.

[Harambey180]

I really have to take a closer look at this:

If Mumble gets lynched and flips Vengeful Townie, he says he'll shoot sheep. It is not out of the question though that UCV can be scum, so far he actually managed to lurk all game long and we had let him get away with it. Thus, lynching Mumble is probably not the best option.

If sheep gets lynched and flips Vengeful Townie, I can assume that he'll shoot Mumble. This is the same as in the first example.

Thus, lynching UCV seems the most profitable. When Mumble and sheep are both Vengeful Townies, they will shoot each other and we will lose this game with GJ to UCV.
If UCV however flips Vengeful Townie, it becomes more difficult. Either sheep or Mumble will be the remaining scum.
Based on what has happened so far in this game, Mumble seems to give good reasons that it's quite unlikely that he is Bambi's scumpartner.
Sheep hadn't voted Bambi either, and sheep voted Mumble while still keeping some pressure on Bambi.
However, sheep did repeatedly ask for reads from Bambi, so I'm not sure if I can link those together.

CONCLUSION:

Lynching UCV seems like the best option. He might not seem the scummiest at this moment, but the sheep/Mumble 1v1 is risky if it comes to lynching a Vengeful Townie. In the situation that both sheep and Mumble are Town, we'd have let UCV get away with lurking all game long but he'll still win cuz either of these two will shoot the other.
Lynching UCV is a good way to take control over the 1v1, and in case he isn't scum, then based on the interactions it seems like sheep is the better vengekill. If UCV gets lynched however he should take a better look at it.

VOTE: UC Voyager

[Harambey180]

he's just desperate ate defending

hammer away

Nothing was appealing to emotion. I stated factual things that have happened. Was their frustration? Sure, I'm frustrated. But there was content, not an appeal to emotion.

Sheep, if you're town, you need to learn to actually play the game.

look who the fuck is talking

The guy that has posted questions, reads, positions and is actively trying to sort? Yeah.

Or did you mean you? Because, I haven't seen any sort of questioning (beyond "reads pls"), reasoning, or true intent to sort players in this game. Your complete lack of care for UCV emphasizes that. Town playing the game would want to sort that slot. You're fine leaving it null. Do you even have the capacity to build a case as to why you think I'm scum beyond "aggressive entry and content less posting?"

You aren't playing. You're posting to see yourself post.

If Mumble gets lynched and flips Vengeful Townie, he says he'll shoot sheep. It is not out of the question though that UCV can be scum, so far he actually managed to lurk all game long and we had let him get away with it. Thus, lynching Mumble is probably not the best option.

Vengeful can only shoot if lynched Day 1. It's in the Role PM.

Huh oh lmao. This is me irl right now ->

[Harambey180]

I'm turning from 'most spot-on explanating person' to 'dat dumbie that doesn't give af about rrrules'

[Harambey180]

Huh oh lmao. This is me irl right now ->

Does that change your 223?

I guess no.
Thinking about it a bit, I think your 1v1 is TvT the heck crazy that might seem.
Also UCV has literally done nothing the entire game. We let him get away with that for the entire game. How come we haven't lynched him yet...

Both of you have at least done something to figure out who the scum is/are. Now you got locked at each other in a 1v1. I'm the one to tell you not to take it too far.
And hey UCV has not posted

anything useful

for the

entire game.

I'm so dumb I hadn't realized earlier. Not even talking about that I'm the first to realize it.

[Harambey180]

like mumble is trying so hard to have a decent push on me but he's failing so badly

Your complete lack of care for UCV emphasizes that. Town playing the game would want to sort that slot. You're fine leaving it null.

where do i appear ot be "fine leaving it null"?
ive just not had a read on him and clearly would not have been able to from his iso and am planning to once he posts his post

Ah come on sheep, he's done nothing all game long.
Hopefully THAT's gonna give you an idea some day.

[Harambey180]

like mumble is trying so hard to have a decent push on me but he's failing so badly

Your complete lack of care for UCV emphasizes that. Town playing the game would want to sort that slot. You're fine leaving it null.

where do i appear ot be "fine leaving it null"?
ive just not had a read on him and clearly would not have been able to from his iso and am planning to once he posts his post

Ah come on sheep, he's done nothing all game long.
Hopefully THAT's gonna give you an idea some day.

Honestly I'm just going to wait until that idea gets to you. This game has no deadline anyways so we can, heck, we can wait until 2021 for you to figure out that UCV hasn't done anything this game and that there's something that lies behind that.
I'm gonna do that. Even if it makes me wait until 2021, I'm gonna wait for you sheep to say useful things about UCV like I am doing.

[Harambey180]

Ah come on sheep, he's done nothing all game long.
Hopefully THAT's gonna give you an idea some day.

he's just a busy person
he's still null because it's not like he's intentionally not doing shit

He's said in all his posts, that's probably like 5 or 6, each time he said 'it's coming later'.
After saying it the first time you wouldn't expect him normally to repeat that another 5 times without giving what he promised.
Forget it.

[Harambey180]

Also I'm voting UCV right now. Try lots lots better to convince me why voting Mumble is indeed the best option. He's done some useful stuff, especially more recent posts convince me more that he's trying to solve this than your (weak, but that aside) reasoning on scum!Mumble.
Without my vote, you won't get Mumble lynched. Unless he's soft like Bambi and also self-hammers. That'd be best scum ever hammering themselves each time.

[Harambey180]

Honestly I think Bambi hammered actually bcuz you weren't voting Bambi, so he self-hammered to not make you suspicious.
My 'scum picks' as of now are:
UCV
Closely followed by:
sheep
You're moving higher and higher sheep.
Mumble is my least likely scum suspect.

Also annoys me that you only point out the bad things. You only say 'this is wrong that is wrong'. I (and also slightly Mumble) have also pointed out good things and smart things. Show us your happy side plz, ty.

[Harambey180]

there is nothing to do about ucv besides wait for his big post

Agree. I'm going to take it a step farther and just not continue this back-and-forth until he shows up.

Yes.
At this moment this is the plan:
I keep my vote on UCV for pressure.
I'd advice you guys to FoS him.

Then we all gonna wait for his catchup post.

That literally is all we gotta do now. We just have to wait and wait.
If we want to solve the game we gotta know what he has to say.

[Harambey180]

Like really, it's also a good way to put a pause on your unnecessary 1v1.
This game can officially be on a standstill until UCV joins.

There is absolutely no reason to go against this. We need UCV to solve the game to find the last scum, we already focused on each other too long, he promised a post so we just gotta wait.
So please do not do anything else now.

we should wait for UCV's post and that's it

[Harambey180]

@mod

okay so sheep has been banned. What kind of impact does it have on the game? Because now it is kinda ruined. I don't even think that I'll continue playing with a replacement.

@UCV

For what it's worth: still have something to post? We could also just forget about this game. It has no deadline so with what has happened, we can just forget about this entirely.

Like, if you agree - UCV, Mumble, probably RC as well - we can just leave this game after sheep's ban. I can't really be satisfied with another solution cuz the only other solution I can think of is that sheep gets replaced but then I'd just leave as well probably. That's just the way I feel and look at the situation.

[Harambey180]

OK well I'll replace out as well then.
Replacing someone this late in a game is game-ruining in my vision. Without sheep it's not that fun either cuz like basically it's just me and Mumble cuz UCV been quiet af.

However my replacement will also pretty much be 'near-confTown' cuz I was near confTown as well I guess.

[Harambey180]

Yeh now it's just Mumble that hasn't replaced out...
I told you that it broke this game. In a 4-player situation where it's nearly end of game, this ruins a game.
I'm standing behind my decision which means both me and sheep are already being replaced if replacements are sought.

[Harambey180]

Replacements did a great job, just like the rest of Town (including me).