Open 708: Pick Your Poison - Game Over

[CultOfAthena]

I doubt there's a team without EP on it, but the first one is possible – EP's vote on tex was short lived given his intent to hammer moz and a quick glance through his ISO shows a lot of mentions as a potential wagon or a "could vote there" but never actually any votes.

[RadiantCowbells]

When you say bad thought does that mean you like playing with me?

[Klick]

In class making a somewhat rushed post. I'm not going to commit to making a post tonight. I intend to, but people will get all pissy if I don't follow through.

I was prepared to vote COA last night. I think my original reason for hard townreading her today is unjustified - her not seeing the reason Transcend was the obvious shot made me think town, but Thor didn't see it either. Furthermore, COA's last few posts today have been horrendous, and if that were all I could see from her I would vote her, no question.

I went through COA's ISO last night after hypothesizing on her being scum. I didn't think she was scum upon review; her scumread on me was extremely consistent. But it was past 4 in the morning, and skimming her ISO right now, I'm disagreeing that it's particularly towny.

Therefore:
VOTE: CultOfAthena

Case coming soon. It's largely revolving around her last few posts.

[Beefster]

I don't have a ton of time right now, so this is going to be sparse. But it's one of the ISOs I promised. Most of it, anyway.

Hi everyone, let's make it a good game and good luck!

VOTE: Thor665

this is my least favourite post. bit self conscious?
VOTE: hewhoswims

Finding scum in scum from basically nothing:

+5 scum points

Easily written off for being early game:

-3 scum points

maybe i am just a sucker for effort, but i am quite liking Hewhoswims catch up posts So:
UNVOTE:
VOTE: Bellaphant

Hops off scum also for basically no reason:

+1 scum point

VOTE: Beef
that list...scummy, empty BS.
Bella, Beef, Klick scum team?

Needed for context.

Swims and Money town - so much content.
@ Thor - i guess i meant "changed his vote", not "changed his mind". He changed his vte when someoenasked him why he was voting Cult. looked like scum panicing to me.

P.O.E town: Moz, thor, swims,money,flubber,maxous and cult.

Lynch in: Penguin (drops out of town bloc because no scumhunting yet),Bella, Beef, errant,klick,tex
so we got to the coin flip stage!
my scum team is prob. bella, beef and ??? atm

Eh. I was looking legitimately scummy for that.

+2 town points

It takes a while for me to figure out how to describe things and details bore me.

a kindred spirit! me too, i like the overview approach!

gonna UNVOTE:
i was really flying on the caffiene when i voted him and there is a chance i was simply talking out of my ARSE.
he has responded well- i think its a fair point to say all reads are quite vague at this stage.
anyway, its all good for P.O.E!
Beef into town pile.

Jumps off lynchbait wagon with garbage excuse:

+1 scum point

VOTE: cult

Votes COA out of nowhere. Absolutely not suspected before this point.

+3 scum points

Conftown Transcend, RC

Town

Townlean Thor, Moneybags, Klick?, Beef

Null Mozamis, tex, COA, Max?

Scumlean Flubber, EP

Scum

If people want me voting then VOTE: Flubbernugget but as said, I'm just barely 100% confident.

this is his first vote since his FIRST POST OF THE GAME!
and what a surprise, hes got EP and Flubber as scum leans! Obv scum setting up obv lynch bait with Max.
I still think Money is probably in the scum team, but we should definitely lynch Hewho and Max.
VOTE: Hewhoswims

Possible bus for towncred:

+2 scum points

,

+1 town point

screw it, i'm probably overthinking it.
VOTE: texcat

Jumps onto lynch bait wagon:

+1 scum point

good vote, can we finally do this?
obv i'll go back to tex if need be.
VOTE: hewhoswims

Icky vote flopping:

+2 scum points

Totals:

12 scum points

,

4 town points

I still have another 50-something posts to look over in moz's ISO.

[Beefster]

Compensation for possible cherry-picking: I dunno.

+6 town

?

It's an arbitrary scoring system anyway.

[Errantparabola]

think scum just wins this game. It doesn't seem plausible that all remaining scum is in {Maxous / tex / Klick / moz} just from basic scumteam theory. I'm also really surprised that RC scumreads me, the distance from my scumgame here is extremely easy to identify

[Errantparabola]

I'm willing to lynch tex today. RC seems more inclined for that than he was earlier. If town then we can go moz. I assume if tex flips town I become townier just because of the paucity of plausible scumpartners for me. If moz is town then we probably just lose.

If tex flips scum I'm anticipating that town has enough wiggle room with 2 in a row down. I'll just eat the lynch and wash my hands of this game.

If we lynch moz today and moz flips scum then that probably means like, IDK, something like Beef/Athena/tex for consideration. Klick's townier. Maxous, I don't know.

If moz flips town, then go tex and perhaps we proceed from there as outlined, except maybe I'll want to stay alive if tex is scum because we lost an extra town.

[Klick]

EP, picture a world where COA flips scum. Who's a viable third to that team?

[Thor665]

@Thor if tex is scum the partner is almost certainly in {EP, Maxous}

Add klick I guess

I would agree with that, possible outside of CoA but I think CoA is still town despite the dramatic play downturn, and I still tend to think Klick is town also.
EP's quick flippity flop makes me feel that he's potentially suspect just in general, as he is experienced enough to not just be a nervous sheep methinks.
Still not liking how Moz has gone total silent running even with the wagon pressure removed.

I think smart play is Tex or Moz with an outside of EP. We won't get much info off the kill, but...meh, at least we can choose who we flip.
I kinda don't want to toy with EP just because the bodies on the wagon feel so certain, and *maybe* everyone bussed anyway.
But at least one had to have methinks - HWS was going down in smoke and SOMEBODY had to want some cred off of that cluster panic.

My brain is saying let's flip Moz, my gut is niggling for Tex.
I'm currently favoring the brain at this stage as I rarely trust the gut.
What are you thinking?

I think scum worry more about others' reads than town does. They particularly are concerned about reads of scummates, like HWS.

I don't recall him ever asking for anyone else's reads on the slot.
Also, frankly, I don't think RC followed up on it, and I don't think Klick pursued - how does that effect your read (please double check and update me if I'm wrong).

I was just trying to point out that your assumption of town!moz to get to scum!me was not an assumption that a lot of people agreed with.

I'll agree with that.
It's meaningless to the issue of your scumminess/townishness and feels like empty smokescreen.
But I'll agree with it.

@Klick - maybe I'm reading the thread very wrong, but what are you doing with that CoA vote?
Case? Yeah, sure, supply a case, that would be nice to see.
But the wagon ramp up?
My friend, both RC and I have CoA as some flavor of town, as do 2 others methinks, and there's three days or so till deadline. If you wanted to play around with this wagon you should have done so about one or two days ago when I was starting the texcat play (or sooner, as I went pretty late on mine as well)

We're going to lynch Ep, Tex, or Moz today.
All have viable cases and associations against them.
So, unless you literally town read all three, what the hell is with this counterwagon experiment at this stage?
Get your vote back to a viable wagon, present your case, we'll discuss it tomorrow after flips.
Don't make me regret arguing you into a town pile today by adding more distractions to this herd of cats.

[RadiantCowbells]

think scum just wins this game. It doesn't seem plausible that all remaining scum is in {Maxous / tex / Klick / moz} just from basic scumteam theory. I'm also really surprised that RC scumreads me, the distance from my scumgame here is extremely easy to identify

why did you suddenly get super demoralized when I expressed support for the same lynch that you did and stopped voting someone you thought was town?

[Errantparabola]

why did you suddenly get super demoralized when I expressed support for the same lynch that you did and stopped voting someone you thought was town?

Because based on the names that are coming up and the big wagons I expect the remaining lynches to be all in that group. I'm not super demoralized (see: the remainder of that post), I'm saying if we only lynch lurkers I think we should prepare for a potential loss here.

[Klick]

That's reasonable, Thor. I guess actually achieving a lynch on COA today is unlikely regardless of what kind of case I present.

I don't like any of the wagon options. I suppose my favorite is tex.

VOTE: texcat

[Errantparabola]

Okay, to elaborate-- it's definitely possible that it's just lurker scum. But in my experience that's usually not how it works. Given the atmosphere of D1, usually one scum gets off their ass and tries to do work because, I guess, they don't want to throw the game. Maybe that person is moz ehhh ufghgg

[Thor665]

why did you suddenly get super demoralized when I expressed support for the same lynch that you did and stopped voting someone you thought was town?

Because based on the names that are coming up and the big wagons I expect the remaining lynches to be all in that group. I'm not super demoralized (see: the remainder of that post), I'm saying if we only lynch lurkers I think we should prepare for a potential loss here.

That's kind of a silly complaint, because if you look at the people who are not lurkers you have;

RC - confirmed.
Thor
Mozamis - who is a lynch option
Flubber - confirmed
Beefster.

So, basically, we have a lynch option amongst the most active posters. We also have two confirmed town. We also have me (who is probably the most town read after the confirmed) and we have Beefster (who has at least been in lynch discussion, and of late has been a bit lurky himself...so has Flubber for that matter)

I literally don't even really see the 'lurker as a case' thing happening, what I do see is people analyzing wagons and putting a very loose policy of 'these assorted low content sacks are more scummy than the higher content posters) which is objectively a very valid statement to make.

Where's the fire?

[Thor665]

Random factoid - RC+Moz's posting equals more posts than the next 5 most active posters still alive combined.
Also, you, Tex, and Cult have less posts than the mod. And CoA isn't really on the lynch table - so, again, it's not about being lurky.
That said, you shouldn't have less posts than the mod and all of you should participate more.

[Errantparabola]

shrug-- yeah, that's fair. I guess I'll wait on scum Beef/Athena/Thor until after a flip (Beef > Thor > Athena vaguely towniest to scummiest)

I'll say if we just take my recent content I'm participating fine (in terms of how engaged I am. You all probably find the quality of my content more lacking, based on various shade thrown my way.)
So, unless you want me to just make a flood of posts to make up for me being AWOL for a week?

[Thor665]

I am unaware that I suggested you should make a flood - and if you'd like to claim that your content providing this game is good (which is what I indicated was not good) I don't even get the point of bristling at me. You and I both know you've under performed if you're town. If you disagree and are curious I'll be happy to explain how you have.

Also, though, yes, you are participating better now, I still feel like you're sidelining pretty hard.
Like, just take a look at the discussion I'm having with RC - that is alegit, valid, and (flattering myself) deep discussion about the course of the game and where scum are.

Your contribution thus far during this period I think is the best of this phase, and possibly the game?
You've complained about being scumread and made some objectively iffy claims about so-called lurker lynching we're doing.

Why aren't you leaping in and helping RC and I scumhunt?
I feel like you're being a defensive and reactive emptiness, and I find that scummy and not great.

[Errantparabola]

I know I'm might be doing stupid point scoring here, so feel free to yell at me after this if it comes across that way., but I'm reading your discussion with RC as just long winded PoE. I don't think you're scumhunting. That is not to say you're posting empty stuff- I just think it's very apparent that we're in a pretty static gamestate right now (case in point: Klick proposes a new wagon, you quickly shut it down saying that the lynch is in Tex, Moz, me).

No new developments are really gonna happen, aside from Klick's case, I suppose.

I've expressed my preference. I've expressed where I want to go from here. Moz and tex aren't saying anything right now. I don't think you're achieving anything. I'm very ready to move forward here, and I've expressed my intent on where I focus considering where that takes us.

[Thor665]

It's *exactly* long winded PoE.
And PoE is *exactly* scumhunting. Do you have some PoE to share or analysis of our PoE?

I agree I shut down a proposed alternate wagon - do you have a read on that?

I agree that if you just complain about lack of new developments that no new developments except those started by others will happen.

I agree that you are acting like things are stagnant and your only available choice is to sheep RC/my PoE...I want you to know I find that a scummy thought process to extrovert.
I find most of that post kind of scummy, at the very least it's a lot of claims of external loci of control, which I don't cotton to much.

[Errantparabola]

actually here. something to do.
preflip associations on someone who isn't going to flip today!

EP, picture a world where COA flips scum. Who's a viable third to that team?

You're pretty incompatible, clearly. tex is, to a lesser extent but that doesn't have a ton of weight (Athena has expressed some pressure on there but without a bunch of claws) Beefster is somewhat in the middle of you and tex on the scale of "how likely is this scumread on the other person a bus?"

moz is probably less compatible than Max. Assuming, sort of, conventional-ish scum play here, it's probably more likely that athena expresses what she does on Maxous ("I think he's town but shrug") vs. moz ("super town very confident here").

Thor, I guess, when looking at only associatives, works viably. not a lot of talking about thor. read expressed: "I'm fine calling thor town."
So in conclusion, something like Klick > Beef > tex > moz > Max > Thor, just pure associative wise, town to scum? Am I missing anyone?
If I had to say, I'd objectively put me around Beef.

--

Thor, here

My POE:
I'll lynch in tex/moz only today. Tex over moz. Will read back post flip to see where I place Max but I'm sticking with town currently here. Won't lynch Beef. Will lynch you and Athena with roughly equivalent level of willingness (that is to say, next sorting priority after tex/moz deal gets solved but have no real reasons to scumread either of you). Most of this is a rehashing of previous posts.

I guess one thing to mention is that with Klick suddenly jumping in here with a sudden curveball case + the thing about voting mozamis (which despite my doubts is more likely town than scum), he's def more towny than he was beginning D2 and I think i've expressed that before?

Your shutting down wagon: No, I do not have a read on that.

External loci of control: I guess we'll see. I'm working with a certain degree of confidence that I am not the lynch today, and there will hopefully be associatives to work with, things to do after a flip and game is revitalized. Ultimately, I'm gonna say that's future me's problem. As for now, I'll do what I can.

[Thor665]

If you're comfortable with both Tex and Moz scum - what is it that tips you over the edge to favor Tex scum or to think that Moz is less scummy/more townish?

[mozamis]

should be able to properly catch up this afternoon.
unless stuff has radically changed, i'm still up for ep or tex.

[Flubbernugget]

VOTE: texcat

There's too much talking about a tex lynch without any votes.

[Flubbernugget]

Two days to lynch.

[Flubbernugget]

Also, klick's vanity wagon is doing fuck all, as he has done all game.

Again, if you are town reading klick, please talk about why.