Okay those wagonomics. So like I said I was going into it with my own conclusion, and felt really good about it until I noted Eddie had two peaks at 5 (Marquis & CES). Neither were concurrent. Additionally, in both counterwagons, Gamma was a dubious supporter of both.
-The basic thesis is that at start of day, Eddie, Marquis LQ had morale for wagons against them. This has little to do with D1. I find this important because it defines people who are okay to wagon.
-Marquis appeared as a counter to Eddie. Ranmaru was the first voter, shifted gears, then was re-voted by Eddie. He peaked at three with Eddie, Gamma and CES all providing shit reasons ranging from it being sure scum, to a blind sheep vote of the former, to it "being the time" to lynch him.
-Ranmaru and LQ crossvote, Marquis votes Eddie and the wagon collapses
-Gamma votes LQ
-Marquis votes LQ
-CES votes Eddie
I don't think this disproves anything like CES-Dan-NSG. I'm capable of seeing trends, and each time I accused CES, Dan would come out and scumread me (1) or NSG would (twice). If any of these flip scum, I'm pretty sure the game is solved. I do find it hard to shake the immediate nature of the CES vote onto Eddie, which is basically aimed at Marquis for leaving. Up until I read into the game the Eddie wagon looked like Worst Damn Thing™ due to the cherry on top, but I do actually see a reason for the CES vote, and without observing any coherant plan launched on the Eddie wagon, I'm pretty comfortable with it right now. The LQ wagon on the other hand is poop.
okay so if you hate wall posts just stop reading here and skip to the next post or smth
(The paradigms "mafia plan" and "team of 3" have been bothering me all game day which is why I had a very much wait-and-see approach with CES, because my only rationalization was that the entire team was just lurking out.)
Continuing that thought, to go along with my "trendy wagons" theory, without trying to shoehorn myself into a conclusion.
I noted who was making which player socially acceptable to push since sod. Most of this was Postie on Eddie, and LQ on Postie. Here's the full results if anyone cares. What I consider to be shade might not be yours, so if you don't like it, go fuck yourself.
lq postie(8) eddie(2) marq (1) gamma(1) dav(1) ran(1)
postie eddie(9) ran(1) shea(1)
ranmaru marquis(4) dan(1) postie(2) eddie(4) lq(4)
eddie lq(1) ces(1) ran(5) marq(3)
dun postie(1)
dav lq(1)
I considered this period to be over around this post, because afterwards we moved into Davsto's meta case on Eddie.
In post 1356, Ranmaru wrote:I'm thinking the team is [LQ > Eddie > Marquis].
LQ
:
LQ's post is force in his
#888. LQ tries to shade my replace in his
#829 Shea asked him if he why he didn't think my catchup was genuine, and responds saying that he laughed at me misrepresenting him, and fence sits his read on me. Yet, this has nothing to do with his point that I had no 'unique' reads. Seems like a slight back track of his original position. LQ throws shade at Screen in his
#1058, and while null scum reading him in his
#999. Yet, LQ doesn't join the wagon on Screen, he avoids it while poking at him. He then votes Postie, who he read as null in his #999, but has not stated a read change nor did he have any progression. My assumption is that he saw my case on her, and took the opportunity to place his vote on Postie to A) Draw associative between her and him, and B) To stay off the ScreenTOWN wagon. LQ's
#1299 shows that he prefers to muddy the connection between himself and Postie, to drag her down in his eventual lynch.
Eddie
:
Eddie's
#1315 Shows he scumreads CES for hammering. Then, he votes Marquis in his
#1320 while scumreading myself for no reason at all. In his
#1336 he states I'm trying to draw off pressure from Postie (LQ v Postie), which contradicts his initial read of CES MARQ RAN. It shows that he has no genuine reads here, and is applying the same tactic LQ is, muddying his connection with myself to drag me down in his eventual lynch.
Marquis
:
Marquis enters voting North following Postie, with weak reasoning in his
#24. This is in response to Postie asking why he voted North, not a good response. Marquis states he is having a hard time getting into the game in his
#381 but lurks for quite a bit and doesn't try to get back into it, which he admits to in
#631 . He talks about who is scum on his wagon, LQ in his
#455. He is sidelining while not really pushing anything, like in his
#877 and then unvotes in his
#879 and nothing else. He has progression for LQ but he never follows up with it. In general, he seems more interested in getting a good position in town, fails and gets wagoned, and then lurks out to survive and dodge the lynch. Then he comes in late with with
1226 voting LQ. It is badly timed, it does not seem genuine.
LQ and Eddie are both trying to muddy connections between universal town reads, since they seem to have no other option, or little options available to them. Today, we lynch either LQ or Eddie. Then the other the next day.
Ran essentially started the Marquis fire, but in my mind it isn't until Eddie's / Mastina's godread on Marquis that it became a "wagon" and hit the peak of 3. By this time, Ran had moved on. I feel it is pretty notable that in one post Ranmaru pointed at all three wagons of the day. If there was any deeper meaning to this post, I'd like to know it.
This is why I asked Ranmaru for their Gamma read: I actually like CES' read on Gamma better than Ranmaru's read. Considering I had been transparently been scumreading/townreading these players, we either need to get on the same page, or there's gonna be a lynch Ranmaru is going to disagree with down the line.
I'm going to
VOTE: Eddie, because if peoples' reads are bad, it's because they're probably scum. He's had two counters to himself, both supported by Gamma. He's had every opportunity in the world to stick to CES, or not vote for lynchbait. I can be persuaded onto Gamma or put back on the true path of saying CES is scum all day. This is the only theory I can give beyond say everything is a giant TvT.
Who the third-anyone who pushed Eddie counters (Marq, Dav, Ran) or a lurksack. I'm happy to talk about this I guess.
