Team Mafia 2018: Game 3 - Random GIFs Game Over

[Mathdino]

They are just caught scum pissed that they can't get an ML but no one will vote them.

and who the fuck are you talking about lol

[Radja]

your lynchpool is literally yesterday's lynchpool plus chesskid paranoia for being almost completely site inactive

there's a solid chance all of those 4 are town

you guys can't just gutread players who ALWAYS have townish tones

bulbazak, bins, CDB, t-bone, keychain, you're fooling yourself if you don't think they can, after years of playing mafia, replicate a town style of posting and get townread as scum. LLD was able to. we got her on motivation, not on scumfuck tone

now i'm not saying those 5 players are scummy or that scum is in that set (i'm townreading keychain and CDB), but i am saying that blanket inconsideration of them is a great way to lose by only lynching scummy people

UCV/creature, dunker, these are people incapable of replicating their town style as scum, and that's why they're locktown

tl;dr: your reads should not literally be the same as yesterday when WE HAVE A SCUMFLIP YO

fyi I had no interest in lynching chesskid or elena yesterday so my lynchpool is not exactly the same.
I can read people however I want. I couldn't care less how you feel about that tbh. You've already made my entire team not care about this game anymore so I'm going to play this game however I feel like playing it. I've announced my lynchpool and that's what I'm sticking to. I'm not going to bother trying to engage you again because I'm just going to get pissed off again.

[Keychain]

Regarding the scumflip we have, has anyone gone through their ISOs to see if they can find a partner? In particular Fitz's catchup could be useful.

bulbazak, bins, CDB, t-bone, keychain, you're fooling yourself if you don't think they can, after years of playing mafia, replicate a town style of posting and get townread as scum.

Don't include me in that group lol, my join date should read 2017. I played one newbie game in 2015 and then didn't come back to the site until halfway through last year.

You still are dodging. I am asking why we shouldn't lynch your slot for RC's falsehoods about me draped in meta that you relayed.

You talked to your team, right?
I have repeatedly answered your question. Math has also answered your question.
You should not lynch me because you are basing this scumread on a very short period in the game that you are apparently even misremembering based on 2573.

[Mathdino]

@Titus: I don't wanna harp on you for RL stuff or anything, but you really need to get your head in the game if you expect to get through today making basic "not reading the game" mistakes. Like, I appreciate your presence as a vehicle for Eddie's reads, but you really haven't lived up to my strong townread

@Keychain: I'll take a look at fitz's ISO. I absolutely refuse to search for partners by LLD's ISO though. I'm not gonna pretend I can gamesolve when it's possible LLD planned out going down like this.

[Bins]

I'm not gonna pretend I can gamesolve when it's possible LLD planned out going down like this.

which is why Elena is scummmmm


I'm just going to wait on the replacements because rn I'm feeling stubborn

[Mathdino]

Before I do anything with fitz's catchup, I'm looking at how he catches up in relation to scumbuddies in other games.

fitz in Open 701 PYP X/Y, replaced into a scumslot with NSG and Aster. He discredits and chainsaw defends against the growing NSG wagon until NSG gets lynched. He develops a townlean on Aster into a hard game-long townread. Scum PT is all setup spec and planning mislynches.

fitz in Open 696 Cosmopolitan, multiball scum with iiSq (an alt). Had a "not sure" read on partner, did a small chainsaw defence, then puts iiSq in his scumpool but cases other people in the pool. Then puts iiSq in a VCA scumpool and leans town on him to suspect the others. Does a classic "pair my scumbuddy with a townie and try to lynch the townie" move. Scum theatres it up a bit and then defaults back to a townlean. Scum PT has no mention of bussing.

fitz in Mini Normal 1908, replaced into scumslot with MMM and Ircher. Discredits a scumread on MMM, softballs some suspicion at MMM, ends up nullreading him because MMM could just be town with truthful explanations, or scum good at explaining. Scumleans Ircher (seems kind of OMGUSy), puts him in his lynchpool, but doesn't push. Both partners were in his scumspects but neither were his focuses. Notably, the scum PT plans out a bus on Ircher only when it seemed Ircher was doomed, and seemed semi-resistant to being bussed himself.

fitz in Open 669 Nightless Vengeful Mayhem, scum with SuperHans and lucca (new players). Delivers a lot of softball questions at Hans, does the whole "scum working together" thing, while questioning people about their votes on him. Later transitions into straight up defending Hans and casting a lot of shade on people voting him. For lucca, he shades him early but then drops him in his townleans and townbins him for the rest of the game. Scum PT also asks buddies to unvote him a couple times to avoid a quicklynch. Seems wholly uninterested in bussing.

I don't feel like doing a full write-up of Mini 1653 but it fits into the pattern. Factcheck me if you want.

havingfitz, as scum, does not hardbus his buddies. He dislikes bussing, considers it risky, and is far more comfortable discrediting pushes on his buddies. He rarely LOCKTOWNS buddies, keeping most of them from townlean to "lynchpool but not my favourite lynch".

The only situation in which I see fitz going hard on his buddies this game is if his buddies shouted him into it. Which, given the temperaments of the players in this game, seems unlikely.

Moving forward then.

[Mathdino]

Reads from fitz's ISO:

Aero: NAI

Bins: He discredits A50's push on her and townbins her... but also directly asks in thread for her not to vote him. Which isn't something I've seen from him toward a scumbuddy. He'd just say that in the PT.

Bulba: Townreads him but not strongly. Otherwise pretty much ignores him.

CDB: Shades him twice, once for townreading me and scumreading Keychain. Scumpools him.

chesskid/Smocaine: NAI

Dunker: Seems to locktown him. No issues whatsoever.

Elena: Unfortunately little content on this slot. Drops her in a scumpool saying her team might've left her the remaining PM (scum). Later says Llamarble was actually cool with Elena.

Keychain: Auto townreads her, after claiming he's never played with town-her. Seems legit actually.

Mathdino: I mean yeah, I could be using all this as an elaborate plan to clear myself, but fitz was hardpushing me when it seemed like I was a viable lynch candidate. fitz's scum PTs all indicate a general discomfort with bussing, and wants to keep his partners alive by default. I guarantee you that if anyone was voting him up until the final stretch, fitz would've complained about them doing so.
So it's your call to make. I'm pretty disappointed that I'm the only person he pushed because that does nothing new for me.

Radja: Just a townread.

skirt/Transcend/Titus: Waffles a bit on his read on this slot. Places it as a townlean in his reads list, expresses frustration at "There's one scum in {skirt, LLD}" and argues they could both be town, and discredits A50's later vote on them.

T-Bone: Amused at one post and then townleans him.

UCV: Townreads him for literally nothing, adjusts for inactivity, then discredits Creature's read on him.

His first reads list (reorganised):
Town: Dunker, Keychain, Radja, Bins, Bulb, UCV
Townlean: T-Bone
Slight townlean: skirt/Transcend/Titus
Null: Aero
Townlean with paranoia: A50
Nullscum: Smoke/chess
Suspicion toward: CDB, Elena
Scum: Mathdino

His second:
Town: Dunker, Keychain, Radja, Bins, Bulb
Townlean: T-Bone, UCV
Slight townlean: skirt/Transcend/Titus
Null: Aero
Townlean with paranoia: A50
Nullscum: Smocaine/chesskid
Suspicion on: Elena
More suspicion on: CDB
Scum: Mathdino

---

So going SOLELY OFF FITZ'S ISO:

I don't think I've seen fitz-scum auto townread his buddies. At least not both of them. I think he tempers what would be townreads on them because he's biased by knowing they're scum. Then when he does defend them, he does it strategically. So my guess for least likely partners to most likely partners are:

Keychain, Dunker

: Hard townreads. Unlikely scum interaction.

UCV, Radja

: Auto-townreads.

CDB, Bins, Elena

: Theoretically possible, but a few interactions make this seem unlikely. He directly asks Bins to unvote him (he has a record of asking his scumbuddies in the PT), he discredits CDB without interacting with him, and the shade on Elena followed by Llamarble's disagreement seems unnecessary. Elena much more likely than CDB/Bins though.

Aero: meh

Titus

: Townleans and discredits a push, but specifically discredits the "there's exactly one scum in fitz/Titus" take, which would be a take that strongly benefits the team if fitz/Titus were actually correct.

Bulbazak, T-Bone, chesskid

: Drops them into his leans and null piles. Exactly the spots that fitz loves to put his scumbuddies in.

It's unlikely BOTH SCUM are in the "below Aeronaut" category, because there have been examples of fitz townbinning one of his buddies. Just not both. We should be lynching below Aeronaut first IMO.

[Bins]

I don't see how you're greening Elena from this but I agree with Titus

[Bins]

I doubt he'd hard bus as well, I think LLD would do that
rather I think he'd probably throw one as town and one as "sus"

[Mathdino]

The votecounts since fitz's replace-in:

havingfitz (4)

Smocaine , Keychain , Elena Fisher , ChannelDelibird

havingfitz (2)

Keychain , ChannelDelibird

havingfitz (3)

Keychain , ChannelDelibird , Mathdino

havingfitz (6)

Keychain , ChannelDelibird , Mathdino , Almost50 , UC Voyager , Elena Fisher , L-2

havingfitz (6)

Keychain , ChannelDelibird , Mathdino , Almost50 , UC Voyager , Elena Fisher , L-2

havingfitz (8)

Keychain , ChannelDelibird , Mathdino , Almost50 , UC Voyager , Elena Fisher , Bulbazak , Radja

It's highly likely that fitz-scum would request his buddies unvote him or not vote him to avoid a quicklynch while he catches up. There were a few points where he genuinely seemed to believe he could get a lynch on me (this logic only works if you believe I'm town ofc).

The best players from these VCs are definitely Keychain and CDB. Followed by UCV; I can't see UCV playing this game without being coached by his scumbuddies, and fitz would never request UCV vote him over Titus or me.

Followed by Elena, whose vote seems a little early. Granted, there weren't really other lynch options at this point that Elena actually claimed to scumread.

The worst players are chesskid (although when did he unvote?), Bulbazak ("work with me but bus me as I'm going down"), and Radja (who has a reasonable explanation for the hammer).

Then of course there's also everyone who never voted him: Dunker (locktown tho), Bins (SUPER BAD), Aero (NAI), Titus (also pretty bad), T-Bone.

Informed by my preexisting reads, chesskid is still super town to me, and Radja is policy lynchable maybe-town.

So based solely on fitz material (with a few locked in reads), preferred lynch order would be:

Bulbazak > T-Bone > Elena > Titus (moved down because of my team's read) > Bins > Aeroslot/chesskid

One of these people will likely be NK'd anyway. So if that happens, feel free to not take me to LyLo, as I expect we'll have a scumflip no matter what if we follow this.

[Bins]

Great, we agree. Minus Bulbazak, I will lynch the other three before my name. Preferably Elena.

[Elena Fisher]

Your tunnel on me makes no sense given you act like I'm lock scum for shockingly no reasoning that you've shown besides screaming I'm scum

[Mathdino]

I don't see how you're greening Elena from this but I agree with Titus

I doubt he'd hard bus as well, I think LLD would do that
rather I think he'd probably throw one as town and one as "sus"

I'm not accepting any arguments on what LLD-scum would do, as she has such a wide varied scum history that I'm confident just blanking all her material. fitz on the other hand seems extremely predictable as scum.

I agree with you on the "one town one sus" strategy. That said, his leans are generally much scummier than his strong reads in either direction. He generally includes one scum in his lynchpool but he clearly resigned himself to not providing more associations when it was clear he was gonna get lynched anyway. I regret the deadline being so soon; another couple reads lists and pushes from him likely would've given away the team.

Re: Elena: It was the fact that he pushed her a bit and then brought in Llamarble's apparent townread of Elena. I don't see scum motivation in that. Obviously if Elena is scum, then that Llama read was just fluffing it up.

[Bins]

Your tunnel on me makes no sense given you act like I'm lock scum for shockingly no reasoning that you've shown besides screaming I'm scum

You discrediting my scumread to you to this shallow is also extremely scummy. You act like you should be townread at this point but how is that even remotely possible? Your votes on LLD-slot read like a buddy who was uncertain if their teammate was going down or not, whilst not wanting to miss out from the towncred on the wagon. WHILE taking every opportunity to get off the wagon.

[Bins]

Math, if you're town you were the LLD counter wagon and Elena was a big voice in this wagon and switched off the LLD wagon to hop on it. I'm really not sure how Elena comes out in a good possible here vote wise.

[Mathdino]

Gonna play devil's advocate here (because god help us if Elena starts 1v1ing you over it). The obvious counterargument is:

1. Elena genuinely believed I was scum but couldn't get traction for it.
2. Elena repeatedly argued that I was scum with LLD (along with you or A50 (IIRC?)), and stated willingness to lynch any of {Math, LLD, Bins}, giving support to whichever seemed more likely.

Don't worry Math if I ever die in this game I will make sure you're next just because I can't get you lynched today doesn't mean I can't get you lynched tomorrow. You're just very...loud you don't want to figure me out you're just sheeping you're not game solving you're asking for stuff from other players you're so confident I'm scum when you can't even case me. you're on the wagon that is my main sr and has been all game with me and this doesn't worry you? At all? No if you were town you'd step back go "wait a minute" but you can't do that because you've locked your into this

This quote in particular seems genuine.

So to disprove #1 you'd have to show that she didn't actually believe her push on me. I don't think #2 is really counterable; it just seems like behaviour anyone would do when they have a 3 player lynchpool.

[Bins]

Elena repeatedly argued that I was scum with LLD (along with you or A50 (IIRC?)), and stated willingness to lynch any of {Math, LLD, Bins}, giving support to whichever seemed more likely.

I think this is a scum play.

[Elena Fisher]

No bins you're just in a bias death tunnel anything I post you'd call scum at this point. Me discrediting your sr is logical I am town of course I'm going to discredit it
Have you just been screaming I'm scum? Yes
Have your brought forth points until I told you too? No
sigh

[Elena Fisher]

I don't think anything you say about my slot should be taken as value until you get out of the tunnel you're in

[Bins]

I genuinely believed Titus was scum as well, but apparently that's not believable.


p-edit - I have been bringing up points and pointing to Keychain's posts this entire time because I agree. I don't think your reactions come from town and I really don't think you picked a town role PM. I also don't think you've been trying to solve the game, and you reads look like they're more to sway people and benefit yourself than actually find scum.

[Elena Fisher]

I'm tempted to ignore bins all together because of the way she's acting

[Bins]

Considering I have 3 scumreads, I think you should start playing the game and maybe I will get out of the tunnel. But until you actually do something, my read is definitely not changing because I think I am right.

[Mathdino]

Elena stop it and do other things, I'm engaging Bins on this specifically so you don't

you have a strong tendency to repeat the same conversation over and over with people

like what you did with me D1

if you seriously disagree with the bulbazak case, GO TEAR IT UP FOR ME

thus far i've had no one actually disagree with it with reasons other then "WELLLLL BULBA SEEMS TOWN AND IS SCUMHUNTING SOOOOOO"

[Elena Fisher]

Considering I have 3 scumreads, I think you should start playing the game and maybe I will get out of the tunnel. But until you actually do something, my read is definitely not changing because I think I am right.

oh my sweet jesus-
okay I'm just done with you given you clearly are going to bring no value to this conversation

[Bins]

I'm tempted to ignore bins all together because of the way she's acting

^^

This sort of discredit is 100% a scum reaction (I do it all the time as scum). Please lynch Elena today and if I'm wrong I'll consider re-evaluating my stronger townreads. But until then, I'm not voting Bulba.

The fact you think I'm deathtunneling you shows how much you're out of touch with the game.


p-edit - Great conversation... again you bring no new information or reads to the table.