Team Mafia 2018: White Flag — Day Six
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Davsto He/HimFarce of HabitHe/Him
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northsidegal Survivor
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VOTE: Dunnstral
feel pretty good about placing my vote here now, actually. don't believe that his rationale for voting marquis comes from a genuine place of conviction.
@tsq – i think reck misinterpreted what i was saying about my lurking – i said that idohave a meta of being less active as scum, not that i don't.-
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Thestatusquo He/HimSheaHe/Him
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Cogito Ergo Sum YARR!
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Do you think a 25% chance of flipping scum corresponds to a town read? I'll acknowledge that I didn't get to do as much as I would've liked to arrange a different lynch - I tried to encourage 'marble or someone else to take up the torch because I knew I would have almost no time to spare for basically the whole second week of the game; it probably would've been easier if I had had a town read on Tchill because that would've given me something nice and concrete to do.In post 1963, northsidegal wrote:
but looking at it again i don't really think this is a good explanation and reviewing his iso for his townread on tchill he doesn't really do much to stop the lynch there and to get people voting with him on his scumreads.In post 1596, Cogito Ergo Sum wrote:I think "expecting to flip town" vs. "expecting to flip scum" is a very unhelpful dichotomy. I initially thought the odds of hitting scum in Tchill was in the 25% area (6 such lynches = likely loss) and that then went up to, say, 35% (6 such lynches = okay odds of winning) which given the general situation seemed like the best I could hope for, so I ended the Day so we could move on.
Dunn just gave us a sweet Marquisvote so why are you here trying to sell us platitudes (i.e. something that is a) obvious and b) not true)?In post 1997, Gamma Emerald wrote:You kept "not noticing", after a while it can't be explained away as that, plus I feel like you would be a bit more critical of it since it was a reasoning on you
P-edit: then why do you think Dunn changed to Marquis from Eddie, nsg?Scumchat is awesome. Yarr!
~"Multiple exclamation marks are a sure sign of a diseased mind."~-
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northsidegal Survivor
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i don't understand where that percentage comes from at all so it kind of sounds made up to me. why did the percentage change at all for screenplay's replace in? like, you give the justification for your read as the percentages but you don't give any justification for the percentages themselves.In post 2003, Cogito Ergo Sum wrote:Do you think a 25% chance of flipping scum corresponds to a town read? I'll acknowledge that I didn't get to do as much as I would've liked to arrange a different lynch - I tried to encourage 'marble or someone else to take up the torch because I knew I would have almost no time to spare for basically the whole second week of the game; it probably would've been easier if I had had a town read on Tchill because that would've given me something nice and concrete to do.
not entirely sure, but i don't think he actually believed in the eddie wagon in the first place. could be to avoid pressure for a poor vote on the wagon, could be to muddy up associatives. either way i think it's scummy play. the eddie wagon certainly seemed as if it was happening anyways. is there something specific about the people that changes something about this read, to you?P-edit: then why do you think Dunn changed to Marquis from Eddie, nsg?-
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Cogito Ergo Sum YARR!
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The percentages are just me trying to clarify my reads progression to you (and why it led me to make the decisions that I made). They just reflect how I felt at the time; I've already talked about how Screenplay's replace-in made me more suspicious of the slot; we can relitigate that if you really want but it seemed more important to explain the exact nature of the read change first.In post 2004, northsidegal wrote:i don't understand where that percentage comes from at all so it kind of sounds made up to me. why did the percentage change at all for screenplay's replace in? like, you give the justification for your read as the percentages but you don't give any justification for the percentages themselves.
The straightforward thing for Dunnscum to do with Night about to fall is just stay on the Eddiewagon. The fact that you can posit some vague motivations to the contrary doesn't change that, I don't think.In post 2004, northsidegal wrote:not entirely sure, but i don't think he actually believed in the eddie wagon in the first place. could be to avoid pressure for a poor vote on the wagon, could be to muddy up associatives. either way i think it's scummy play. the eddie wagon certainly seemed as if it was happening anyways. is there something specific about the people that changes something about this read, to you?Scumchat is awesome. Yarr!
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Ranmaru Jack of All Trades
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Can you quote where you got that feeling?In post 2004, northsidegal wrote:not entirely sure, but i don't think he actually believed in the eddie wagon in the first place.-
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northsidegal Survivor
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it was from reviewing his iso – he pretty much just admitted that he never actually looked into any of the meta on eddie and just thought he'd go along with it. like, that's actually just what he said.In post 2006, Ranmaru wrote:
Can you quote where you got that feeling?In post 2004, northsidegal wrote:not entirely sure, but i don't think he actually believed in the eddie wagon in the first place.
Spoiler:-
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northsidegal Survivor
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cogito ergo sum, my main problem lies with hammering a slot that up until recent you were townreading and then after the swap only marginally scumread. that combined with you not really doing that much to remove the lynch from someone you townread makes me think that you didn't actually care who the lynch landed on. if you had any more thoughts as to why screenplay was more likely to be scum after the swap in than the ones you gave in 1179 that might help me to clarify this.-
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Thestatusquo He/HimSheaHe/Him
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I really don't like nsg's interaction with the eddie wagon btw.
they have said "it's something that needs to happen." and have attacked someone for taking their vote off of it. But they have managed to do this without taking a definitive stance on the wagon or on eddie himself, and have piled onto the counter wagon.
this is classic fence sitting.
if eddie flips scum, they can't be tagged with being against the wagon, after all they said it needed to happen and attacked someone for removing their vote from it, and hey theres a chance the counter wagon would be successful. if eddie flips town they can say they weren't on the wagon and led the counter and that they never supported it.tout comprendre c'est tout pardonner-
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northsidegal Survivor
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i mean, yeah – i'm fence sitting. i don't really have a read on eddie myself and i haven't gone into the meta case that was posted against him.
also, i wasn't attacking dunnstral for getting off of the eddie wagon – i was saying that his vote in general was lazy and he didn't actually care who it was on. there's nothing specifically about eddie in relation to that.-
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northsidegal Survivor
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making the argument that scum would try to claim credit for a wagon also doesn't really make sense to me, especially in white flag. nobody really gets credit for just staying off of a town wagon anyways, and isn't this the setup where scum bus to try to throw off associatives as much as possible?-
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Thestatusquo He/HimSheaHe/Him
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northsidegal Survivor
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i mean, if you're calling me scum for this i would appreciate if you would go into the details.-
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Thestatusquo He/HimSheaHe/Him
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I did already, they are that I think approaching the wagon the way you are allows you to stay relatively clean tomorrow regardless of the outcome and I don't see a lot of town motivation for almost complete avoidance of the most consequential topic of discussion right now.
Your response was to give me theory about how scum bus like crazy in white flag (something that is certainly not universally true) and to claim that no one gets any credit for not being on a town wagon (which is also something I think is just dead wrong.)
So I don't really know where you want me to go from there?
I want you to take a position on eddie and the wagon more helpful than "yeah, I guess thats a wagon alright."
If he's null, I want you to explain why, because it seems pretty hard to have him as null given there have been like 3 different cases and 1 defense from various different players.tout comprendre c'est tout pardonner-
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Ranmaru Jack of All Trades
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northsidegal Survivor
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those cases probably happened during the time when i was only kind of skimming the thread. i'll go back and read them now to try to refine my own read, i've just so far kind of put off talking about it because i don't really like just sheeping other people's reads – i like to have my own reads on things and i haven't had that for eddie so far.
also, you make it sound like i just resorted to theory as a defense, but you were the one who put forward theory as to why i'd be scum – your theory was that my fence sitting was beneficial to me as scum no matter how eddie flipped, because if he flipped scum i could take credit for the wagon and if he flipped town i could say that i wasn't on it. my response to that is that, at least for myself and the way i've dealt with the eddie wagon, there's no world in which i would reasonably get any "credit" for it, whether he flipped scum or town.-
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northsidegal Survivor
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could you quote that / give the post number for where that begins for me?In post 2015, Ranmaru wrote:NSG, since you townread me, how do you feel about Eddie's attack on me? I'm at work, but I'll go more in depth later on tonight.-
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Thestatusquo He/HimSheaHe/Him
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Ok so my problem with this is that when I jump back into a game as town, whether that be as a replacement or from my own inactivity, my first job is to understand what is going on and why, and that involves understanding where the current wagons are coming from and figuring out if they're good or not.In post 2016, northsidegal wrote:those cases probably happened during the time when i was only kind of skimming the thread. i'll go back and read them now to try to refine my own read, i've just so far kind of put off talking about it because i don't really like just sheeping other people's reads – i like to have my own reads on things and i haven't had that for eddie so far.
also, you make it sound like i just resorted to theory as a defense, but you were the one who put forward theory as to why i'd be scum – your theory was that my fence sitting was beneficial to me as scum no matter how eddie flipped, because if he flipped scum i could take credit for the wagon and if he flipped town i could say that i wasn't on it. my response to that is that, at least for myself and the way i've dealt with the eddie wagon, there's no world in which i would reasonably get any "credit" for it, whether he flipped scum or town.
The fact that you seem to have no curiosity about this what I would call fundamental part of a catchup is another part of why your catchup doesn't feel genuine to me.
If you're town, why don't you care about sorting the player that is L minus freaking one?tout comprendre c'est tout pardonner-
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LicketyQuickety Survivor
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At this point an Eddie flip tells us a lot about the game. Tells us a lot about Gamma if Eddie flips Scum, tells us about ECS and Lycan if Eddie flips Town. At this point this lynch needs to happen.I was anything worse than you! Anything worse than you was I!
You was doided teh aposit_tisopa het dedoid saw em.-
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Ranmaru Jack of All Trades
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Thestatusquo He/HimSheaHe/Him
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Dunnstral he/himGoodfellashe/him
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It didn't look like much to meIn post 1997, Gamma Emerald wrote:You kept "not noticing", after a while it can't be explained away as that, plus I feel like you would be a bit more critical of it since it was a reasoning on you-
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Dunnstral he/himGoodfellashe/him
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What does this mean?In post 2001, northsidegal wrote:don't believe that his rationale for voting marquis comes from a genuine place of conviction.
Because what I described actually happened-
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Ranmaru Jack of All Trades
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