Team Mafia 2018: White Flag — Day Six

[Davsto]

Ain't really got time nor awakeness to properly catch up today sorry (and no posts tomorrow because valentine's) so I won't be posting for a day or two sorry guys

but ur doin great

[northsidegal]

VOTE: Dunnstral

feel pretty good about placing my vote here now, actually. don't believe that his rationale for voting marquis comes from a genuine place of conviction.

@tsq – i think reck misinterpreted what i was saying about my lurking – i said that i

do

have a meta of being less active as scum, not that i don't.

[Thestatusquo]

dat counter wagon tho.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

I think "expecting to flip town" vs. "expecting to flip scum" is a very unhelpful dichotomy. I initially thought the odds of hitting scum in Tchill was in the 25% area (6 such lynches = likely loss) and that then went up to, say, 35% (6 such lynches = okay odds of winning) which given the general situation seemed like the best I could hope for, so I ended the Day so we could move on.

but looking at it again i don't really think this is a good explanation and reviewing his iso for his townread on tchill he doesn't really do much to stop the lynch there and to get people voting with him on his scumreads.

Do you think a 25% chance of flipping scum corresponds to a town read? I'll acknowledge that I didn't get to do as much as I would've liked to arrange a different lynch - I tried to encourage 'marble or someone else to take up the torch because I knew I would have almost no time to spare for basically the whole second week of the game; it probably would've been easier if I had had a town read on Tchill because that would've given me something nice and concrete to do.

You kept "not noticing", after a while it can't be explained away as that, plus I feel like you would be a bit more critical of it since it was a reasoning on you

Dunn just gave us a sweet Marquisvote so why are you here trying to sell us platitudes (i.e. something that is a) obvious and b) not true)?

P-edit: then why do you think Dunn changed to Marquis from Eddie, nsg?

[northsidegal]

Do you think a 25% chance of flipping scum corresponds to a town read? I'll acknowledge that I didn't get to do as much as I would've liked to arrange a different lynch - I tried to encourage 'marble or someone else to take up the torch because I knew I would have almost no time to spare for basically the whole second week of the game; it probably would've been easier if I had had a town read on Tchill because that would've given me something nice and concrete to do.

i don't understand where that percentage comes from at all so it kind of sounds made up to me. why did the percentage change at all for screenplay's replace in? like, you give the justification for your read as the percentages but you don't give any justification for the percentages themselves.

P-edit: then why do you think Dunn changed to Marquis from Eddie, nsg?

not entirely sure, but i don't think he actually believed in the eddie wagon in the first place. could be to avoid pressure for a poor vote on the wagon, could be to muddy up associatives. either way i think it's scummy play. the eddie wagon certainly seemed as if it was happening anyways. is there something specific about the people that changes something about this read, to you?

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

i don't understand where that percentage comes from at all so it kind of sounds made up to me. why did the percentage change at all for screenplay's replace in? like, you give the justification for your read as the percentages but you don't give any justification for the percentages themselves.

The percentages are just me trying to clarify my reads progression to you (and why it led me to make the decisions that I made). They just reflect how I felt at the time; I've already talked about how Screenplay's replace-in made me more suspicious of the slot; we can relitigate that if you really want but it seemed more important to explain the exact nature of the read change first.

not entirely sure, but i don't think he actually believed in the eddie wagon in the first place. could be to avoid pressure for a poor vote on the wagon, could be to muddy up associatives. either way i think it's scummy play. the eddie wagon certainly seemed as if it was happening anyways. is there something specific about the people that changes something about this read, to you?

The straightforward thing for Dunnscum to do with Night about to fall is just stay on the Eddiewagon. The fact that you can posit some vague motivations to the contrary doesn't change that, I don't think.

[Ranmaru]

not entirely sure, but i don't think he actually believed in the eddie wagon in the first place.

Can you quote where you got that feeling?

[northsidegal]

not entirely sure, but i don't think he actually believed in the eddie wagon in the first place.

Can you quote where you got that feeling?

it was from reviewing his iso – he pretty much just admitted that he never actually looked into any of the meta on eddie and just thought he'd go along with it. like, that's actually just what he said.

Spoiler:

So, Eddie Meta. First to note is that I'll be referencing this post a lot as it's a good sum up of Postie's claimed town- and scum-meta re:Eddie.

First thing to note is that, while the chosen games are from last year (which initially concerned me with regards to cherry picking) they are indeed the two most recent (substantial) games Eddie has played in. This is also a general comment that I'm fairly happy with their assessment of their two games. I don't think the difference is as blindingly obvious as painted, however. Also, I will note that his TBD play (scum) becomes a fair bit more like his Night and Day (town) play as the game continues, which muddies the whole thing a little for me.

Now, the other games:
Paint Mafia Mania (SCUM) - while more recent than the other two, this game is the reason why the qualifier "substantial" is in the paragraph above - an entire 9 posts, due to a personal situation ("unforeseen life stuff"), a fast moving game, and eventual replace out. So, while largely it could be NAI (as pretty much all could be equally explained with the lack of full engagement with the game due to being behind), I do notice even in this tiny sample that a fair few of Postie's meta-indicators are present.
Hunger Games II (SCUM) - this is a hydra game with Bulbazak (to find Eddie's posts, use Ctrl+f and search "-Fenix", as he signs all but his first post with this). Another of Postie's points is here - a very small number of reads. Pretty much the first half of Eddie's posts refer to a single player (Creeps). And yep, a lot of questions which aren't followed up on, and.. yeh you get the idea. I was honestly expecting to have a fair bit to argue against Postie with but... this is pretty much as they say. I'm almost disappointed.
Team Mafia 2015: Mod Error Mafia (TOWN) - four posts, nothing to see here.
Team Mafia 2015: 8:4 Vanilla Nightless (TOWN) - this one's a teeny bit more ambiguous, as there are a few early posts where questions aren't followed up on and a smaller number of players are engaged with. But who am I kidding - this is quickly resolved, questions are followed, he gets mulitple more reads quickly, his posting is indepth and lacks fluff.

Dammit Postie, when you're right, you're right.

VOTE: EddieFenix

Will take a look at this later, will likely vote eddie if I agree

Ok then: I'm ok with lynching Eddie and will vote him if we're ready

I don't scumread LQ, but I haven't been looking into this posts in-depth

Marquis pushing that there was a dichotomy but never actually going into why a dichotomy is

bad

(and I did ask) is at the very least strange

What part of the postie case do you agree with? You mentioned you were going to do some digging into it but I don't see the result of that, I just see you saying "I'm going to look into that" changing into "I'm gunna vote eddie later".

Truthfully I never actually looked into it, I just assumed he was being voted for meta and figured I'd go along with it (also I thought I saw some favorable reactions to it)

I thought postie was relying on her team too much to the point of shirking responsibility off herself, that looked weird to me, I do think it is unlikely she busses though

I don't have an opinion on davsto slot, or on actiondan, I'll look at both of them but truthfully there's portions of the game I haven't read so I suspect I'll be missing on context unless I take the time to catch up on everything

CES doesn't look like scum to me from what I've seen, this is a change in a read I had on him earlier

VOTE: EddieFenix

Seems good for today

[northsidegal]

cogito ergo sum, my main problem lies with hammering a slot that up until recent you were townreading and then after the swap only marginally scumread. that combined with you not really doing that much to remove the lynch from someone you townread makes me think that you didn't actually care who the lynch landed on. if you had any more thoughts as to why screenplay was more likely to be scum after the swap in than the ones you gave in 1179 that might help me to clarify this.

[Thestatusquo]

I really don't like nsg's interaction with the eddie wagon btw.

they have said "it's something that needs to happen." and have attacked someone for taking their vote off of it. But they have managed to do this without taking a definitive stance on the wagon or on eddie himself, and have piled onto the counter wagon.

this is classic fence sitting.

if eddie flips scum, they can't be tagged with being against the wagon, after all they said it needed to happen and attacked someone for removing their vote from it, and hey theres a chance the counter wagon would be successful. if eddie flips town they can say they weren't on the wagon and led the counter and that they never supported it.

[northsidegal]

i mean, yeah – i'm fence sitting. i don't really have a read on eddie myself and i haven't gone into the meta case that was posted against him.

also, i wasn't attacking dunnstral for getting off of the eddie wagon – i was saying that his vote in general was lazy and he didn't actually care who it was on. there's nothing specifically about eddie in relation to that.

[northsidegal]

making the argument that scum would try to claim credit for a wagon also doesn't really make sense to me, especially in white flag. nobody really gets credit for just staying off of a town wagon anyways, and isn't this the setup where scum bus to try to throw off associatives as much as possible?

[Thestatusquo]

I'm not going to go into the details of town motivation vs. scum motivation or game theory re: white flag too deeply, but suffice it to say that you're approaching this wagon in one of the ways I would expect scum to approach the wagon.

[northsidegal]

i mean, if you're calling me scum for this i would appreciate if you would go into the details.

[Thestatusquo]

I did already, they are that I think approaching the wagon the way you are allows you to stay relatively clean tomorrow regardless of the outcome and I don't see a lot of town motivation for almost complete avoidance of the most consequential topic of discussion right now.

Your response was to give me theory about how scum bus like crazy in white flag (something that is certainly not universally true) and to claim that no one gets any credit for not being on a town wagon (which is also something I think is just dead wrong.)

So I don't really know where you want me to go from there?

I want you to take a position on eddie and the wagon more helpful than "yeah, I guess thats a wagon alright."

If he's null, I want you to explain why, because it seems pretty hard to have him as null given there have been like 3 different cases and 1 defense from various different players.

[Ranmaru]

NSG, since you townread me, how do you feel about Eddie's attack on me? I'm at work, but I'll go more in depth later on tonight.

[northsidegal]

those cases probably happened during the time when i was only kind of skimming the thread. i'll go back and read them now to try to refine my own read, i've just so far kind of put off talking about it because i don't really like just sheeping other people's reads – i like to have my own reads on things and i haven't had that for eddie so far.

also, you make it sound like i just resorted to theory as a defense, but you were the one who put forward theory as to why i'd be scum – your theory was that my fence sitting was beneficial to me as scum no matter how eddie flipped, because if he flipped scum i could take credit for the wagon and if he flipped town i could say that i wasn't on it. my response to that is that, at least for myself and the way i've dealt with the eddie wagon, there's no world in which i would reasonably get any "credit" for it, whether he flipped scum or town.

[northsidegal]

NSG, since you townread me, how do you feel about Eddie's attack on me? I'm at work, but I'll go more in depth later on tonight.

could you quote that / give the post number for where that begins for me?

[Thestatusquo]

those cases probably happened during the time when i was only kind of skimming the thread. i'll go back and read them now to try to refine my own read, i've just so far kind of put off talking about it because i don't really like just sheeping other people's reads – i like to have my own reads on things and i haven't had that for eddie so far.

also, you make it sound like i just resorted to theory as a defense, but you were the one who put forward theory as to why i'd be scum – your theory was that my fence sitting was beneficial to me as scum no matter how eddie flipped, because if he flipped scum i could take credit for the wagon and if he flipped town i could say that i wasn't on it. my response to that is that, at least for myself and the way i've dealt with the eddie wagon, there's no world in which i would reasonably get any "credit" for it, whether he flipped scum or town.

Ok so my problem with this is that when I jump back into a game as town, whether that be as a replacement or from my own inactivity, my first job is to understand what is going on and why, and that involves understanding where the current wagons are coming from and figuring out if they're good or not.

The fact that you seem to have no curiosity about this what I would call fundamental part of a catchup is another part of why your catchup doesn't feel genuine to me.

If you're town, why don't you care about sorting the player that is L minus freaking one?

[LicketyQuickety]

At this point an Eddie flip tells us a lot about the game. Tells us a lot about Gamma if Eddie flips Scum, tells us about ECS and Lycan if Eddie flips Town. At this point this lynch needs to happen.

[Ranmaru]

It tells us about Marquis and NSG as well.

[Thestatusquo]

ran curious what you think it tells us about nsg? want to see if it matches what I think it tells us about nsg

[Dunnstral]

You kept "not noticing", after a while it can't be explained away as that, plus I feel like you would be a bit more critical of it since it was a reasoning on you

It didn't look like much to me

[Dunnstral]

don't believe that his rationale for voting marquis comes from a genuine place of conviction.

What does this mean?

Because what I described actually happened

[Ranmaru]

Yeah give me a minute