Open 713: Jungle Republic [Game Over]

[Beefster]

BuJaber's reactions to minimal pressure are damning. Lynch nao.

[Montosh]

On NM, I think it's not a good idea to let him coast along for too long. It's what he did the last game I played with him, where we were both scum, and he was very good at not getting too noticed and having people think he was town because his play was consistent with his meta and therefore NAI.

If he actually engages at some point then we can get some reads but if he continues like this it basically becomes impossible to read him.

[BuJaber]

BuJaber's reactions to minimal pressure are damning. Lynch nao.

Your basis for voting me in the first place is wrong. Now you're just trying to make the narrative fit.

@skitter - I'm tunneling on the fact that one scum among you and thor.

Why did I choose you over him? Because my gut reaction was to town read him. I have since had doubts about that, but your arguments against him are so imaginative I can't help but vote you first as I'm giving you a slight edge on being the scum. If you flip town I'd want to lynch thor obviously. But yeah it would prove this isn't a case of SvW.

[BuJaber]

On NM, I think it's not a good idea to let him coast along for too long. It's what he did the last game I played with him, where we were both scum, and he was very good at not getting too noticed and having people think he was town because his play was consistent with his meta and therefore NAI.

If he actually engages at some point then we can get some reads but if he continues like this it basically becomes impossible to read him.

That is exactly my point.
Espeo wants us to lynch rather than let him coast. But if everyone is in agreement that NM doing nothing is NAI then the odds of him playing scum or wolf or town are equal. It is basically just a shot in the dark.

We let him live for a while and maybe you get more information to act on.

[BuJaber]

My case on me boils down to three things:

1) I misread a quote.

Human error.

2) I said I would only vote for one of two people.

True, but it takes 7 to lynch and I would be more open minded if I saw that I won't get my way. This isn't my first game, I understand how lynches work. Taking that statement literally is a bit naive or insulting to me. Also I change my mind. A lot. It is part of my process. It isn't AI. There are multiple games in my history to show you this.

3) I wanted to lynch a lurker then switched my vote really quickly

See above. Also I reread the skitter/thor conversation between those two votes.

If you got other reasons let's hear em. We have two weeks.

[LaserGuy]

All of these things are true in any setup. The fact that this is multiball increases the odds of us hitting scum compared to a single team, in fact, and if the odds were really that much worse than chance, then we'd be better off letting random.org do the lynch, because then the odds would be exactly chance. But that isn't really the point. The point is that your perspective on how the lynch is going to go is not that of Town. Your post hoc rationalization doesn't change the initial error.

Honestly, I think that people might sometimes forget that they're playing multiball, and just play like it's singleball.

Like you also sound like you forgot we were playing multiball here in the bolded below; you're ignoring the possibility that thor/paradox might be s v w.

Unfortunately, yes, Town do this as well. I don't think all of the participants are necessarily scum, but I think it's more likely that we'll find scum in {BuJabar, Korina, skitter} than in {Thor, Paradox}.

Unless, I suppose, both you and Paradox are scumbuddies and this is all theatre, which is certainly possible for D1,

but I don't think that's what happening here.

I think you're reading too much into that statement by montosh tbh.

No, I was specifically referring to Thor and Paradox being aligned scum here. But your defense of Montosh is noted.

Translation: I'm scum because I read the setup

Good job misrepresenting my argument. That's sure to earn you lots of townie credit.

My reading prowess is unmatched. Unmatched.

This whole sequence of posts is just awful.

[wilky]

I must have misread it.

Okay I'm day 1 lynch. Unforgivable mistake.

And if it is somehow proven that you edited the comment that should be an insta ban.

wtf is this???

Serious question what is worse letting NM coast because he's NM or lynching him early because he's NM?

Letting him coast.

Wrong imo.
One is not worse than the other. If a player doesn't engage in any game as either alignment that player is useless to the game and his flip becomes a coin flip.

What happens when he rolls a PR in a game and gets lynched because he's NM?

Criticize his play, call him out on it, blacklist him from your games, request he be replaced but don't just lynch and hope to hit scum.

I'm not quite sure what the answer to the original question should be but do you have experience with NM? If so, how did you find a way to get a read on him?

I tunnel when I think I'm right. And I think I'm right.

But let's not forget I wanted to lynch a lurker so no I'm not narrowing the pool as much as you seem to imply.

Who are you defining as lurker this game and how would you pick which lurker to lynch?

Also, what's the difference on policy lynching a lurker to policy lynching NM? Going by what you said on the NM debate you're totally against the policy lynch as NM could easily flip town, same goes for lurkers surely?

I misread his quote and it had a direct effect on him thinking I'm scum because he thought it was fabricated.

It is impossible to prove that I am telling the truth and it is very difficult for anyone to believe my claim. Therefore I am day 1 lynch.

I do want to point out that you should pay attention to the speed in which my wagon is growing and what that implies. 2 people in the game wouldn't vote each other and 3 wouldn't vote each other. Somebody being voted by everyone who posted is incredibly suspicious.

1- Why would misreading a quote early on day 1 make you the lynch for the day?
2- The watch how the wagon grows thing pings me massively because it sets up an easy opportunity for any scum buddies to bus you and claim the town cred from there.
3- You then go on to say that scum won't bus this game which pings me for the same reasons as 2.

Why are you so sure scum won't bus?

My case on me boils down to three things:

2) I said I would only vote for one of two people.

True, but it takes 7 to lynch and I would be more open minded if I saw that I won't get my way. This isn't my first game, I understand how lynches work. Taking that statement literally is a bit naive or insulting to me. Also I change my mind. A lot. It is part of my process. It isn't AI. There are multiple games in my history to show you this.


So what this part is really saying is that you won't park on two people all day like you said you would. You say its insulting that anyone would take you saying that you'd park your vote on 1 of a possible 2 people but why wouldn't we take it literally when it is literally what you said.

Saying you'd park your vote on 1 of 2 people then following it up with "I change my mind. A lot." Are two contradictory statements aswell.

[wilky]

@Mod- Requesting vote count

- Below.

[mutantdevle]

Votecount 1.3

(3)

BuJaber - voted by: Espeonage, Beefster, Dr Fanta.

(2)

wilky - voted by: TheGoldenParadox, Not_Mafia.

(2)

Thor665 - voted by: skitter30, Korina.

(2)

skitter30 - voted by: Thor665, BuJaber.

(1)

LaserGuy - voted by: wilky.

(1)

Montosh - voted by: LaserGuy.

(1)

Beefster - voted by: Montosh.

With 12 players alive, 7 votes are needed for a majority. Only 6 votes are needed for a no lynch.

Day 1 ends in (expired on 2018-03-01 17:30:00)

[wilky]

In that case VOTE: BuJaber

[BuJaber]

Didn't we play together? I'm pretty sure I changed my mind so many times in our game together. Why is it scummy this time?

People would lynch me for misreading the quote because nobody has any reason to believe that I did. I made a mistake and therefore it makes for me to get lynched. It's a game of mafia. People shouldn't take my word for it just in case. It also sets a bad precedent if I am forgiven for that.

I don't think scum would bus because in this game I don't think it's a good strategy for them, appearing too town paints you as a target for the other scum party. Therefore they would only do it when they have to. A few votes in with 10+ days left until deadline is not enough to need to bus.

As for the NM thing I have no problem with someone lynching NM because he is one of the lurkers here, but lynching NM specifically because he's NM and will likely coast all game with barely any posts is wrong. When I voted for him he didn't have any posts at the time he was the most obvious lurker. I have no way of picking one lurker over the other so I just picked the first one I identified as such. You see the difference between that reason to lynch NM and espeonage's reason to lynch NM?

My sequence of posts was awful because espeonage's tone rubbed me the wrong way. At the time it felt very dismissive of my reads which I think are pretty good. I'm convinced I've got the right pools for 2/5 scum at least if not more. Also I was at work. Not the right mindset to have a discussion.

For the record espeo I know I overreacted. You are calling me scum of course you will dismiss my reads it has nothing to do with me personally.

[BuJaber]

The above is directed at wilky for the most part.

[wilky]

Didn't we play together? I'm pretty sure I changed my mind so many times in our game together. Why is it scummy this time?

People would lynch me for misreading the quote because nobody has any reason to believe that I did. I made a mistake and therefore it makes for me to get lynched. It's a game of mafia. People shouldn't take my word for it just in case. It also sets a bad precedent if I am forgiven for that.

I don't think scum would bus because in this game I don't think it's a good strategy for them, appearing too town paints you as a target for the other scum party. Therefore they would only do it when they have to. A few votes in with 10+ days left until deadline is not enough to need to bus.

As for the NM thing I have no problem with someone lynching NM because he is one of the lurkers here, but lynching NM specifically because he's NM and will likely coast all game with barely any posts is wrong. When I voted for him he didn't have any posts at the time he was the most obvious lurker. I have no way of picking one lurker over the other so I just picked the first one I identified as such. You see the difference between that reason to lynch NM and espeonage's reason to lynch NM?

My sequence of posts was awful because espeonage's tone rubbed me the wrong way. At the time it felt very dismissive of my reads which I think are pretty good. I'm convinced I've got the right pools for 2/5 scum at least if not more. Also I was at work. Not the right mindset to have a discussion.

For the record espeo I know I overreacted. You are calling me scum of course you will dismiss my reads it has nothing to do with me personally.

Now that you mentioned it we have played before. Changing your mind is not scummy at all, far from it actually it's the way you have gone about it that has been scummy. You locked yourself on to two players for a whole day then tried to justify it. When that was not working you said that you change your mind a lot (but you had already locked yourself onto two people and said you would stay there all day).

No, people won't make you the lynch for the day because you misread something. The way you posted after making the mistake is partly what makes me think you are scum though. ie the whole dramatic reaction to it, then the whole scum won't bus etc... which i covered already in my last post.

I agree that scum bussing is not the optimal play this early in the set up but if the opportunity arises and a scumpartner was looking like obvious scum i'd bus them as i'd imagine most people would aswell. Your whole scum won't bus at all thing earlier in the thread just simply wasn't true at all. Also, what does scum bussing have to do with the other scum faction?

You don't understand what i'm getting at with the whole NM thing I don't think. Lurking is a playstyle for some people. Real life can also get in the way which can prevent posting as much as usual, you are supporting a policy lynch on these people for what could be there playstyle because it won't help town but you don't support a policy lynch on NM due to his playstyle. There is literally no difference between the two yet you support one and not the other.

By the right pool for 2/5 scum do you mean Thor/Skitter? If so, how has your reads progressed to a SvS between them?

[BuJaber]

And if we played this setup 100 times I would still lock myself on two people if I think there's a strong chance of finding scum there. All I meant was that locking myself on two people doesn't mean I won't change my vote if I can't get a wagon going. The game is made up of more than one scum I'd settle for someone else.

Sounds like you missed my post earlier. I only wanted to vote a lurker in the first place because I also had another theory that there is a good chance of finding scum between the lurkers. I didn't have any particular one in mind. But Espeo seems to imply that NM lurking is by itself a damning thing, and imo that's wrong.

When did my read progress to a SvS? I always thought it was TvS between them, but there is a chance it's SvW.
The 2/5 is explained in the posts I made earlier: (actually 2/6 I mentioned.. 1 from thor/skitter/paradox, 1 from laser, espeo, beef) but it could also be more - say 3 or 4 from those 6, but that's statistically a much lower chance.

[Korina]

UNVOTE:

I'll be catching up on thread and posting some reads later.

[LaserGuy]

The 2/5 is explained in the posts I made earlier: (actually 2/6 I mentioned.. 1 from thor/skitter/paradox, 1 from laser, espeo, beef) but it could also be more - say 3 or 4 from those 6, but that's statistically a much lower chance.

I think you're making the same mistake as Montoge here... you aren't correctly accounting for the number of scum in the game and it's leading you to make some really weird conclusions. Let's suppose you're right and there's exactly one scum in {Thor/Skitter/Paradox} and one in {Laser, Espeo, Beef}. Who should we lynch? From the point of view of Town!you, we should lynch one of {Not Mafia, Dr Fanta, Korina, wilky and Montosh}. According to your reads, three of those five players are scum. You have a much better chance of hitting scum in that pool than you do in either of the pools that you're interested in.

[BuJaber]

Aaaah that's a really good point. I didn't count how many players left that aren't in my pool. Just assumed it was a lot but I didn't narrow down the lynch as much as I thought.

There's still the chance there could be more than 1/3 - 1/3 but yes for now let's go with one of those 5.

Based on meta and tone I'd say wilky is town here.

I'll read the posts of the rest to decide between them. Though at worst we'd have 2/4 of those being scum.
UNVOTE:

[BuJaber]

Korina, Fanta, and NM all posted pretty much nothing. I don't like Korina's "okay going back to lurking" and I got the impression he's paying too much attention to not appear as a lurker instead of actually moving the game forward.

VOTE: Korina

[Beefster]

LaserGuy is town.

Korina and BuJaber are both scum. I can't tell if BuJ's vote is bussing or not, but the're both scum so it doesn't really matter.

[Korina]

I mean, ok, I'm gonna explain why I'm lurking, and just prodging for rn:
1) It's d1, chill. I'm used to much shorter d1s like I said earlier
2) I'm trying to make time to actually read the thread, and I end up lurking a lot, especially early-game because there's not a lot I really can comment on/want to comment on. I try to only make major posts later on when I feel I have something I wanna bring up/clarified.
3) I'm in the midst of making reads, and playing 2 other games on separate forums, while juggling schoolwork.
4) Expect a slow start from me rn. I'll post reads sometime later, at least by Friday, assuming school/other games don't have major events occuring barring me from posting.

[Beefster]

For the record, it's not really the lurking itself that makes you scummy. Lurking is NAI. It's what you are doing with the few posts you have made that makes you scummy.

[Korina]

I mean, I'm trying to play 3 games at once, on three separate platforms. Plus, with the amount of time we have each day, I'm not feeling as much time-pressure from this game. Now, yes, I'm trying to be productive rn, it's just that this game is really sorta on the backburner for me rn. I'm working on reads for this game first.

And also, it's d1 like I said. I become more active as the game progresses.

[Beefster]

I'm in 2 games plus modding 1. What's your point?

[BuJaber]

People need to post now. I refuse to be lynched just because half the players waited until the last day and there wasn't any time to change the wagon.

Korina playing 3 games is pretty small you need more I thought it would be a lot but it's very underwhelming. Site meta is slow for most games so it's not that hard to catch up. On average days obviously. When RL is kicking your butt or you would have no internet access there is VLA. And the prodding policy of the site is quite lenient.

[BuJaber]

Are you a wolf beef? You're too interested in ending the day early.